After A 160-Point Gain On The Dow Today, Futures Suggest The Rally May Hold -- October 18, 2017

Futures here (a dynamic link).

To Re-Balance: 37 Weeks -- October 18, 2017; Gasoline In The DFW Area As Low As $2.08; Generally About $2.29 / Gallon

US crude oil inventories: again, the original estimates were way off (posted last night). The EIA weekly petroleum report (a dynamic link) shows that there was a significant (?) decline in US crude oil inventories: declining by 5.7 million bbls. The number of weeks to "re-balance" decreased from 40 weeks to 37 weeks with that data:

Week	Date	Drawdown	Storage	Weeks to RB
Week 0	Apr 26, 2017		529.0	180
Week 1	May 3, 2017	0.9	528.0	198
Week 2	May 10, 2017	6	522.0	50
Week 3	May 17, 2017	1.8	520.2	59
Week 4	May 24, 2017	4.4	515.8	51
Week 5	May 31, 2017	6.4	509.9	41
Week 6	June 7, 2017	-3.3	513.2	60
Week 7	June 14, 2017	1.7	511.5	57
Week 8	June 21, 2017	2.5	509.0	62
Week 9	June 28, 2017	-0.2	509.2	71
Week 10	July 6, 2017	6.3	502.9	58
Week 11	July 12, 2017	7.6	495.3	47
Week 12	July 19, 2017	4.7	490.6	43
Week 13	July 26, 2017	7.2	483.4	38
Week 14	August 2, 2017	1.5	481.9	45
Week 15	August 9, 2017	6.5	475.4	35
Week 16	August 16, 2017	8.9	466.5	30
Week 17	August 23, 2017	3.3	463.2	29
Week 18	August 30, 2017	5.4	457.8	27
Week 19	September 7, 2017	-4.6	462.4	32
Week 20	September 13, 2017	-5.9	468.2	39
Week 21	September 20, 2017	-4.6	472.8	46
Week 22	September 27, 2017	1.8	471.0	46
Week 23	October 4, 2017	6.0	465.0	41
Week 24	October 12, 2017	2.8	462.2	40
Week 25	October 18, 2017	5.7	456.5	37

Other data from the weekly petroleum report:

• refineries still operating well below capacity, at 84.5%
• gasoline production increased last week, averaging 10 million bbls per day
• total motor gasoline inventories increased 0.9 million bbls last week

We will see the graph tomorrow:

• over the last four weeks, motor gasoline product supplies averaged over 9.3 million bbls per day, up by 2.9% from the same period last week

Here, in the DFW area, the increased gasoline inventories is reflected in price:

• the average price seems to be about $2.29 / gallon for regular unleaded gasoline
• easy to find gasoline at $2.08 / gallon but that is the lowest I've seen

ND Active Rigs Plunge To Just 55 -- October 18, 2017

Amazon - Texas: whoo-whoo! Austin, Texas, likely to get Amazon's $5 billion headquarters -- Business Insider. Based on the article, if Austin, Texas is #1, then Frisco, TX, is #2. Amazon will not announce until sometime in 2018. For its executives, DFW is a much better hub than Austin. Just saying.

**********************************

Active rigs:

$52.03→	10/18/2017	10/18/2016	10/18/2015	10/18/2014	10/18/2013
Active Rigs	55	32	67	190	184

Nine new permits:

• Operator: CLR
• Field: Dimmick Lake (McKenzie)
• Comments: CLR has permits for a 9-well Ravin pad in Dimmick Lake, McKenzie County; see below;

Four permits canceled:

• Petro-Hunt (3): two Coleman Federal and one Dagny Taggart permits, all in McKenzie County
• WPX: one Otter Woman permit in Dunn County

Five producing wells completed:

• 14514, SWD, CLR, Jackson 1-35H SWD, was a Madison well; Last Chance, t1/97; cum 30K 8/17;
• 28241, 415, Lime Rock Resources, Rebsom 5-14-23H-143-95, Murphy, t9/17; cum --
• 28242, 569, Lime Rock Resources, Rebsom 3-14-23H-143-95, Murphy, t9/17; cum --
• 28243, 683, Lime Rock Resources, Rebsom 4-14-23H-143-95, Murphy, t9/17; cum --
• 32830, 1,983, Enerplus, Smooth Green 152-94-18A-19H, Antelope, Sanish pool, t9/17; cum --

****************************************

Existing well:
18384, 380, CLR, Ravin 1-1H, Dimmick Lake, t7/10; cum 121K 8/17;

DAPL Donations To Emergency Responders -- October 18, 2017

Story here.

***************************************

Once Again, It's That Time Of The Year To Remind Drivers About Deer

Be sure to read the comments at the YouTube video. An example:

Sure, interesting idea, but then you'd have to have "Deer Crossing Detour" signs all over the place to show the deer where the new crossing is. AND those signs would be an eyesore, and they ain't cheap! Did she even CONSIDER that??

Why I Love To Blog -- Reason #12 -- October 18, 2017 -- Natural Gas: Haynesville Has Almost Half What Qatar Has -- HUGE!

This is absolutely why I love to blog. I have just spent a fair amount of time going through the Financial Times article asking whether the US shale revolution has peaked. I check my mail and I find a link to this story in the WSJ: an old fracking hot spot makes a comeback. The Haynesville Shale in Louisiana is being reborn, with the number of active drilling rigs tripling in the past year.

So, to answer the question posed by the Financial Times, no, an emphatic "no," the US shale revolution has not peaked. In fact, with exports of crude oil now increasing, one could argue the US shale revolution is only just beginning.

Now, back to the linked WSJ article. From the article:

A new report by the U.S. Geological Survey estimates the Haynesville and nearby Bossier shales contain more than 300 trillion cubic feet of natural gas, up from roughly 70 trillion cubic feet in its last survey in 2010. [And this is at $3-natural gas.]

The Haynesville Shale, a giant natural-gas field in northwest Louisiana, was one of fracking’s hottest spots a decade ago. But it fizzled out about five years ago as gas prices plunged and drillers focused on finding oil next door in Texas. Now, the Haynesville is being reborn as companies with longstanding positions in the area, such as Chesapeake Energy Corp., and newcomers seeking opportunity rush back in and drill again.

Gas production from the Haynesville has risen more than 20% so far this year, to more than 7 billion cubic feet a day from less than 6 billion in January, according to the U.S. Energy Department. The number of rigs active in northern Louisiana parishes and the Texas portion of the field has more than tripled in the past year to 44, according to oil field services company Baker Hughes Inc.

Chesapeake Energy has been learning how to get more out of the ground by drilling and fracking longer wells, Mr. Patterson told investors earlier this month. Chesapeake, which now produces more than 1.2 billion cubic feet of gas each day in the Haynesville, plans to ramp up efforts to re-frack old wells where production is starting to peter out to squeeze more out of them, using newer technology.

QEP Resources Inc. is also re-fracking 30 Haynesville wells this year.

Most WSJ articles have 0 - 5 comments or so. This article currently has 56 comments which suggests a considerable amount of interest in this subject. Some comments on the comments:

• Yiquan Hu is an idiot. At least his / her comment suggests an idiot wrote it.
• Jim Decker is right on target: drilling does not cause earthquakes. Earthquakes associated with fracking have to do with waste water (produced water) being injected back into another deep well. This is almost totally an Oklahoma/crude oil issue and has nothing do to with the Haynesville. With regard to water table contamination: this is "total leftist propaganda."
• David Cates: a nominee for the Geico Rock Award.

By the way, from an earlier post:

• May 16, 2017: Haynesville experiencing a resurgence as takeaway is bottled up in the northeast.

The Haynesville is tracked here. Occasionally.

From an earlier post regarding natural gas reserves:

Now, let's go back and re-run the numbers that were posted earlier:

• that recent huge Mediterranean natural gas find: 30 trillion cubic feet
• Barnett, revised USGS figures: 53 trillion cubic feet
• Utica, newly revised figures: 782 trillion cubic feet
• Marcellus, EIA revised estimates: 65 trillion cubic feet, "proved" reserves

• October 18, 2017, Haynesville: USGS survey -- 300 trillion cubic feet of natural gas, up from roughly 70 trillion cubic feet in its last survey in 2010.

• Bakken/Three Forks, USGS estimate: 7 trillion cubic feet
• Qatar: 800 trillion cubic feet, wiki, conversion

Financial Times: Has The US Shale Revolution Peaked? -- October 18, 2017

Updates

August 12, 2018: a re-look.

October 19, 2017: a reader commented on this (see comments) --

That article is so skewed from reality one wonders how a respected publication ran with it.

Niobrara drill/completions can be done for under $3 million.

Mile-a-day drilling is somewhat routine with 7,000'+ starting to appear.

The precision in targeting the most productive rock is near 100%.

The use of diversion techniques, microproppants, and restricted flowback are all relatively new developments.

EOR efforts are barely beginning.

The decrease in cost - along with MUCH higher production - is expanding economic areas in existing plays and favorably influencing the Uinta, Powder River, Rogersville, possibly the TMS, to name just a few.

The amount of natural gas and NGLs coming from these unconventional operations will continue to rock the world.

Original Post 

The big question I had regarding this article: what was its point? Why did the Financial Times publish it? Why did the Financial Times publish it at this time? A lot of terms were thrown around without definitions; the best example: "efficiency". What jumped out at me was the writer's apparent misunderstanding that in the big scheme of things, the US shale revolution is NOT about horizontal drilling. It's about hydraulic fracturing. Wow, I could go on and on.

See also this post on the resurgence of the Haynesville. 

*************************

The Article

Disclaimer: in a long note written by someone with an inappropriate exuberance for the Bakken, factual and typographical errors are bound to occur. The point of my comments is to provide a general gist of my worldview of the Bakken. And I'm sure I'm wrong in many cases, and see things from a different angle.

The Brits apparently don't understand the US shale revolution. A reader sent me this article -- absolutely fascinating -- and so incredibly off base I just had to blog about it. The link: https://www.ft.com/content/e17930dc-b288-11e7-a398-73d59db9e399.

It's behind a paywall. If the link is blocked, google -- ft in charts has us shale peaked.

Note: there is so much to write here, it's impossible to capture everything. I may stop here, or I may add more. But for those who understand the US shale revolution, this is nothing new. For newbies? Well, what can I say? One wonders if the Saudi's planted this story in yet another attempt to kill the US shale revolution. 

Really: what was the point of the article? The headline asks whether the US shale revolution has peaked. That may be the main theme, but a secondary theme is to suggest that if the US shale revolution has peaked, it is because "technology and efficiencies" have peaked.

The article lost relevancy for me as soon as I noted that not once did the article mention:

• the price of WTI
• the fact that Saudi Arabia was unable to crush the US shale operators
• the fact that OPEC will have to extend production cuts if they hope to quash the current crude oil glut

The article alludes to those issues but does not address them directly. The article seems to focus on US shale technology. It begins:

In the outlook for crude prices, a crucial factor is how far US shale oil production can grow. 

The shale revolution has transformed global oil markets over the past decade, reversing the long decline in US output, challenging Opec’s influence, and helping to trigger the plunge in prices that began in 2014. It has meant windfalls for oil consumers, and some painful adjustments for producers. The leap forward that made shale oil commercially viable for the first time was a revolution in productivity. 

EOG Resources and other pioneering companies worked out how to get oil to flow from wells at much higher rates than in the past, thanks to the application of improved techniques for horizontal drilling and hydraulic fracturing, and those productivity gains continued after the first breakthroughs. Exploration and production companies have been able to drill wells faster, and squeeze more oil out of them by targeting the right rocks more precisely and fracturing them more effectively. The outlook for the industry depends on how far those gains can be sustained and extended. 

Disclaimer: I am inappropriately exuberant about the Bakken.

So, let's begin to look at the various points.

1.  The article starts with two plays: the Bakken and the Eagle Ford. The entire article pretty much only focuses on the Bakken, Eagle Ford, and the Permian. The SCOOP/STACK was not mentioned. Nor the Niobrara (a graph did include the "DJ"). Nor several other US plays (see sidebar at the right).

2. Immediately, the writer begins with "rig count."

A rush to drill in shale formations such as the Eagle Ford in Texas and the Bakken in North Dakota was followed by a flood of production, which mostly held up even after most rigs stopped running in 2014-16. 

As we mentioned many, many times, the "rig count" in the Bakken is irrelevant. I can't talk to the other shale plays and I cannot talk to the oil sector in general, but with regard to the Bakken, tracking the number of rigs has now become irrelevant when looking at past production, current production, and future production. At one time more than 210 rigs in North Dakota did not produced a million bopd; now less than 60 rigs in North Dakota are producing over one million bopd and that's with almost 2400 wells shut-in or not completed.

3. The writer than gets into productivity:

Over the past year, however, the productivity gains seemed to have slowed considerably, suggesting that the revolutionary era for progress in shale is over. In the Eagle Ford shale, productivity — as measured by production from new wells per active rig — has been falling.

But the writer does admit:

Those productivity data from the Energy Information Administration are an imperfect measure, however. For a start, they do not take into account the extent to which companies are drilling wells and then deliberately not bringing them into production as they wait for higher prices. (These are known as DUCs, or Drilled but UnCompleted wells.) So what can we say about the true picture of productivity in shale? 

We'll skip to that later, but this is where the writer failed to mention that during the boom, the price of WTI peaked around $130; WTI dropped to $26 at its low and has since clawed its way back to $52 (barely). Talking about productivity without talking about the price of oil seems to make no sense to me. As far as I can tell, the writer never addressed the issue of price in this article. 

4. At this point, the writer completely misunderstands the shale revolution:

Another factor is the shift from vertical to horizontal wells. A well running horizontally through a layer of oil-bearing rock is typically much more productive than a vertical one that just punches through a section of that layer. Seven years ago, the numbers of wells drilling horizontal and vertical wells in the US were about equal, but since then the vertical rig has just about disappeared. Some, at least, of the reported rise in rig productivity since 2011 was simply a result of that shift to horizontal rigs, which has now largely run its course.

Really? This is what the revolution is all about: horizontal drilling. Horizontal drilling onshore replacing vertical drilling onshore was a no-brainer. The amazing thing is that the shale revolution has resulted in deferring off-shore drilling or, in some cases, abandoning off-shore drilling altogether.

5. And then this:

One of the other big changes in recent years has been in hydraulic fracturing: pumping water, sand and chemicals into the well at high pressure to crack it, allowing the oil and gas to flow out.

This statement alone suggests the writer could be a nominee for the Geico Rock Award.

Helloooo! This is what the US shale revolution was all about. I thought that was a given, but apparently the writer thought it was mostly about the switch from vertical drilling to horizontal drilling. No, the Bakken revolution was due to horizontal drilling plus fracking. The sum of the parts was greater than just simple addition of horizontal drilling plus fracking. The US shale revolution required both: horizontal drilling and fracking.

6.  Then this:

Companies have been using “bigger” fracks, with higher volumes of sand, and the result has often been higher production. But there is some evidence that that process may also be hitting its limits. A good way to assess underlying productivity is to look at production per well, adjusted for the total depth and length of that well. 

Well, duh. "Bigger fracks has often resulted in higher production." What can I say? Well, I might add that the number of stages must also be taken into account. And knowing where to place those stages (think microseismic arrays) might be something to consider. There's a lot more to fracking than sand and water. If that's all it took OXY would still be drilling in North Dakota.

7.  Continuing the fracking theme:

Kayrros, a Paris-based energy research firm, has done that exercise for the Permian Basin of west Texas, the hottest area for investment in the US oil industry recently. 

Its conclusion is that productivity adjusted for well length stopped growing last year, and may even have fallen a little in 2017. As the industry has recovered since last year, companies have moved from drilling in only the most productive “sweet spots” and started to produce from more difficult rocks, creating a natural drag on productivity. Improvements in production techniques have to fight against that drag, and it seems that in the Permian recently they have been losing. 

See graph below.

Again, note: the research firm and/or the writer lumps all operators together into one "sector." In fact, the Bakken has shown increased productivity, and if one breaks the data out further (the Permian has many sub-plays) and by operator, the story would be much clearer. 

Again, price was not mentioned. Choking back wells when prices of oil are low was not mentioned. The example used was the Permian. I can't talk to the Permian but in the Bakken, the number of wells producing 30,000 bbls in the first full month of production after fracking is surging, and the length of the wells has not increased, and for the most part, I am not seeing a huge increase in the amount of sand being used to frack in the Bakken.

This is the graph to which the writer speaks when it is mentioned that improvements in production techniques in the Permian are lagging / losing.

Well, if that's the case, then did improvements in production occur in the Bakken to explain the jump in production/rig in the Bakken? I don't think so. Explanations are elsewhere but I don't want to mention what I think is going on for a number of reasons. 

8. Then the writer moves to the time it takes to drill a well in the various shale plays:

The recorded efficiency of rigs improved dramatically over 2013-16, in part because of the spread of pad drilling: running multiple horizontal wells off from a single site, or pad, to cut down the time spent moving the rigs. Recently, however, the rate of improvement appears to have slowed, especially in the Eagle Ford shale and the Williston Basin, which includes the Bakken formation. 

The writer is being a bit disingenuous here: confusing efficiency of rigs vs time to drill a well. Operators do not include the time it takes to move a rig when they report the number of days it took to drill the well. Combining pad drilling and time to drill a well in the same paragraph as "recorded efficiency" is a bit disingenuous. Pad drilling does not account for "efficiency" in terms of individual wells. In the aggregate pad drilling is incredibly important but pad drilling has nothing to do with production (unless the writer wants to talk about the "halo" effect, which obviously is well beyond the information in this article). 

We're down to 15 days to drill and complete a well in the Bakken. At the beginning of the boom, it was taking as long as 65 days. Of course, the pace of decline is going to slow down; and, believe it or not, at some point, drilling times will fail to stop declining. Is the writer arguing that the Bakken is failing because operators can't drill and complete a well in less than 24 hours?

The shale plays are all identified and can bring wells on line in less than two weeks.

How long does it take to bring a new nuclear plant on-line? Ten years?

How long does it take to bring a new off-shore well on-line? Five years?

It is now estimated that from the time an operator submits a request for a permit for a new well in the Bakken, oil can be flowing into the national pipeline grid within 60 days. From spud to oil in the pipeline in the Bakken: in less than 30 days.

9. Finally, the writer says that "the US exploration and production sector has been a great place to burn cash." The writer lumps/bundles 48 US E&P companies into a single data point. It would be interesting to see a similar graphic for the amount of CAPEX three or four of the major oil companies put into off-shore exploration (not production - just exploration) in any given year.

If one wants to talk about burning cash, one could start with the failed nuclear plant in South Carolina ($12 billion) -- consumers are paying for that plant that will produce no electricity. Or one could talk about the amount of cash invested in Tesla (about $10 billion, so far, I believe) with little to show for that investment. And then, of course, we could talk about the Kemper coal plant in Mississippi that has now cost $7.3 billion and is still not finished. 

Much more could be discussed. The reader who sent me this link suggests the writer did not know much about the US shale revolution or that this was a planted story.

The Energy And Market Page, Part 2, T+270 -- Wow, Market Surges Over 100 Points; Solidly Above 23,000 -- Trump Not Mentioned

CNBC: OPEC apparently wants to extend production cuts for another nine months.

• OPEC + Russia: currently they have agreed to keep 1.8 million bopd through March, 2018
• the extension would take them to the end of December, 2018
• not likely to deepen the cuts
• the extension is pretty much a no-brainer but Iraq, Iran, and a few others will say one thing, do another

Motley Fool: five scenarios that could push oil prices back to $100. None of them are likely to happen and if any of the scenarios happen, unlikely to push oil prices back to $100. The most likely: the need to increase production by 2.8 million bopd as early as next year to meet demand based on current supply/demand projections. But 2.8 million bopd is easy:

• unfettered, North Dakota could go to 2 million bopd in less than a few months (up from one million bopd now)
• Texas (the Permian and the Eagle Ford) could easily add another 1.5 million bopd
• OPEC: note the 1.8 million bopd above
• SCOOP/STACK; Niobrara; Alaska: could easily add another 0.5 million bopd or more

Boom: by the way, if North Dakota goes toward 2 million bopd in 2018, "Katy, bar the doors."

Dow 30: surges 113 points on opening. Late afternoon trading, up 160 points.

NYSE, new highs, 101, including -- JPM, UnitedHealth Group

• new lows: 30

The Political Page, T+270 -- We Won't See This Story On ABC News

NFL: I see the NFL commissioner is taking questions; I turned the television set off that was in the other room; not listening. I honestly do not understand why the NFL didn't simply do the easy thing: just quit playing the national anthem; and quit with the patriotic opening. Simply have the teams warm up; go into their locker rooms before the game starts (as they currently do); and then have them come out and immediately go to the coin toss and start the game. As it is right now, ESPN no longer shows the patriotic opening (they cut to a commercial) and the only ones still seeing the patriotic opening are the fans in the stands, which are increasingly more empty. And based on the booing from those in the stands, they don't want to see the patriotic opening as it is now any more than the rest of us do.

More layoffs: Time Inc., data points:

• 200 people to get the ax -- half come from the editorial ranks
• yesterday, market topped 23,000 for the first time 
• yesterday, Time shares plunge 3.4%

Crazy like a fox. The Republican National Committee raised more than $100 million in the first nine months of 2017, marking the first time it has raised that much, that fast, in a non-presidential election year.

From McClatchy DC. Data points:

• fund-raising sets a record
• more than $100 million in the first nine months of 2017
• first time that much raised that fast in a non-presidential election year
• record-breaking fundraising can be largely attributed to a flurry of small-dollar donors responding to fundraising appeals by the first Republican president in eight years
• the numbers give Republicans a huge cash advantage over Democrats as they head into new campaign season
• could be most expensive midterm field program in history
• Republicans have raised almost twice as much as the Democrats
• Republicans have nearly seven times as much money in the bank
• Trump collected a record-setting $239 million from donor who contributed $@00 or less during this2016 campaign
• so far this year, almost 60% -- more than $44 million -- has come from small donations; more than 98% of those who gave to the RNC were small-dollar donors

Probably something else we won't see on network television today:

I would suggest a noose, but that might be construed as politically incorrect. Bill Cosby is starting to look like a Boy Scout.

Read more here: http://www.mcclatchydc.com/news/politics-government/election/article179293446.html#storylink=

The Oil And Market Page, T+270 -- October 18, 2017

Oil: API weekly report -- says US crude oil stockpiles dropped 7.13 million bbls last week. I track the EIA data which comes out tomorrow. The API data and EIA data often seem worlds apart. I have no idea whom to trust. My natural inclination is to trust the API and not the EIA but it seems the EIA has a wider audience, so I will stick with EIA.

Markets: set to soar today. Dow 30 futures up 90 points right now (7:46 a.m. Central Time). by the way, at some point, the bears will be forced to enter the market. Most of the mutual funds have sold their "dogs" this year as they close out 2017 and start to look forward to 2018.

Iraqi Oil: Iraq, after taking Kirkuk from the Kurds, Iraq plans to double Kirkuk oil output capacity to more than 1 million bopd -- can you say "Saudi Arabia in deep doo doo?"

Goldman's thoughts: then this article via Bloomberg:

The oil market is grappling with intensifying geopolitical risks as uncertainty swirls over the impact of tensions surrounding nations such as Iraq, Iran and the U.S., according to Goldman Sachs Group Inc.

While Iraq’s government is clashing with Kurdish forces in the north of the OPEC nation, raising the prospect of output disruptions in the region, both sides have an incentive to keep oil flowing due to low production costs and “high revenue” available per barrel, according to the bank. And though the U.S. has hardened its stance against Iran, there’s still “high uncertainty” over whether it’ll reimpose sanctions curbing the Middle East country’s crude supply.

Oil jumped almost 3 percent over the past two sessions as weeks of tensions following a Kurdish referendum on independence from Iraq on Sept. 25 flared into open conflict in the oil-rich Kirkuk region. Still, the rally fizzled on Tuesday, with prices trading little changed, as two fields pumping a combined 275,000 barrels a day were shut amid the violence.

“The limited market response so far is therefore consistent with the high uncertainty on potential production disruptions, with larger moves only likely to occur should new disruptions actually occur,” Goldman analysts including Damien Courvalin wrote in a Oct. 17 research note.

Saudi Aramco: Saudi Arabia, yesterday, was quick to reassure investors that proposed IPO is on track. No links; story everywhere.

The Daily Note

The Trump Presidency (301 - 365)
The Last 65 Days Of His First Term
Days 301 - 365

The Trump Presidency (201 - 300)
The Third 100 Days

The Third 30 Days + 10 (261 - 300) -- this page
The Second 30 Days (Days 231 - 260)
The First 30 Days (Days 201 - 230)

The Trump Presidency (101 - 200)
The Second 100 Days
 The Third 30 Days + 10 (161 - 200)
The Second 30 Days (Days 131 - 160)
 The First 30 Days (Days 101 - 130)

The Trump Presidency (1 - 100)
The First 100 Days
The Third 30 days + 10

The Second 30 Days 
The First 30 Days

Between Election And Inauguration (1 - 100)
The Third 10 Days

The Second 30 Days

The First 30 Days

November 17, 2017, T+300: Venezuela is in default. Not a peep out of North Korea for quite some time now.

November 16, 2017, T+299: Al Franken, the groper, story breaks. Falling faster than a lead ball off the Tower of Pisa. Is there a parachute to soften the landing?

November 15, 2017, T+298: Mueller moving fast and furious but no new news.

November 14, 2017, T+297: professional traders thought GE hit its low at $21 and bought in. Then a 7% in one day and now another 7% drop today. It's almost like a "death watch" or a "wake." Yesterday, it appeared that professional traders though the GE floor was $19, maybe $18. Today, it's trading below $17. With a forward P/E of 18, GE shares could easily lose half their current value.

November 13, 2017, T+296: another NFL-free Monday night for me. Quiet.

November 12, 2017, T+295: another NFL-free Sunday for me. Quiet.

November 11, 2017, T+294: a quiet day. President Trump's overseas trip continues to go well.

November 10, 2017, T+293: one gets the impression the "never-Trumpers" have no plans to pass a tax cut bill.

November 9, 2017, T+292: tax bill on "life support."

November 8, 2017, T+291: President Trump departs South Korea and heads for China. US mainstream press upset that a) President Trump did not visit the DMZ (weather); and, b) North Korea did not launch a flurry of bottle rockets. On anniversary of election, all three major market indices hit new records; and, the president himself is enjoying a highly successful trip to Japan, South Korea, and China.

November 7, 2017, T+290: tea leaves suggest the GOP tax bill is dead.

November 6, 2017, T+289: Civil war in Saudi Arabia? The Drudge Report has that banner. Meanwhile, the monster that killed 26+ people at a church yesterday Sunday was able to purchase the assault weapon because the USAF mis-filed his paperwork which would have prevented him from legally buying a gun. Any kind of gun. We don't need more gun laws: we need to enforce the laws we have; make the system foolproof; and get rid of lenient judges.

November 5, 2017, T+288: Alec Baldwin has had complete meltdown; deleted his Twitter account. Tomi Lahren: 'Pathetic' that for all Hillary's rigging she still lost to Trump.

November 4, 2017, T+287: Donald Trump has gotten inside Alec Baldwin's mind. TDS+.

November 3, 2017, T+286: unemployment at lowest rate since 2000.

November 2, 2017, T+285: After the recent terrorist attack in NYC, the mayor says he will increase security for the NYC Marathon -- you mean to tell me that after that what happened at the Boston Marathon, the mayor was going to employ less-than-adequate security for the NYC Marathon?

November 1, 2017,T+284: After latest terrorist attack in NYC, the governor of New York tells New Yorkers to take no steps to defend themselves. He tells New Yorkers to go on about life ignoring these terrorist attacks.

October 31, 2017, T+283: Manafort indictment -- a big "nothing-burger."  -- The Washington Post. On another note, "House of Cards" production is suspended: it appears Hollywood can withstand someone coming out as gay, but not someone coming out as a pedophile.

October 30, 2017, T+282: if I were Manafort, I would be heading for England today. Wouldn't be extradited for a "political crime." If Jeff Sessions can't figure out that Trump wants a special prosecutor to go after Hillary and the dossier, Sessions is a moron. On another note, Kevin Spacey does not deny he is a pedophile; simply too drunk to remember (he says) of the incident with a 14-year-old male. 

October 29, 2017, T+281: Trump strangely quiet on the pending indictment. I'm sure he knows. That's how Washington works.

October 28, 2017, T+280: the first Mueller indictment to be announced Monday. CNN will probably be the first to get the scoop. Turns out CNN and FusionGPS joined at the waist.

October 27, 2017, T+279: all of a sudden folks not interested in getting to the bottom of the "Russian dossier."  Bacon's six degrees of separation. How many dots will it take to connect Hillary with the paid-for Russian dossier? Hillary has been very, very quiet on this one. Panetta wants investigation.

"Wolf Blitzer followed up by asking Panetta why Clinton campaign attorney Marc Elias didn’t tell Clinton campaign chair, John Podesta, they had paid for the dossier.
Elias was the lawyer was represented the Clinton campaign and DNC, during the election and is alleged to have paid Fusion GPS for the Trump dossier."

October 26, 2017, T+278: very little press on the DNC-authored Trump dossier; Hillary staying low

October 25, 2017, T+277: that dossier on Trump; originated with Hillary. this changes everything -- and reported by The Washington Press -- so you know it has to be true. Also here.

October 24, 2017, T+276: Trump, through his tweets, doing what he can to kill the GOP tax cut bill.

October 23, 2017, T+275: another unnecessary and sad pissing content on Twitter -- Trump's phone calls to widows of fallen soldiers.

October 22, 2017, T+274: even Jimmy Carter agrees that the media has been tougher on Trump than on any other president. Carter also says that the Russians had no effect on the outcome of the Trump-Clinton race.

October 21, 2017, T+273: not being reported by Rachel Maddow --

During then-President Barack Obama’s first year in office, 16 people were listed working for Michelle Obama, earning a combined $1.24 million a year. This year, just four people were listed working for Melania Trump as of June. Their salaries totaled $486,700.

October 20, 2017, T+272: simply to make Trump look ineffective, it appears some talking heads on MSNBC are now rooting for ISIS to make a comeback in other parts of the world now that Trump has defeated them in the Middle East.

October 19, 2017, T+271: jobs, jobs, jobs. Making America great again. Unemployment claims drop to lowest in 44 years.

October 18, 2017, T+270: US equity market set to soar today.

October 17, 2017, T+269: pretty quiet; Fake News outlets unable to gain any traction. NFL ratings continue to fall, hitting new lows. ISIS destroyed in the Mideast; less than one year after President Trump takes office.

October 16, 2017, T+268: making America great again. The Empire State Manufacturing Survey rose to 30.2 in October, up from 24.4 recorded the previous month. That handicly beat economists' expectations for a drop to 22 and is the strongest reading since September 2014.

October 15, 2017, T+267: President Obama spent years fighting the "junior varsity." Got nowhere. President Trump, in office less than a year, and ISIS is pretty much defeated. Raqqa, it's "capital" and last stronghold of any size, is about to fall. One wonders if the mainstream press will give the US military or President Trump any credit for this incredible story. On another note, Clintons won't return a paltry $250,000 donation to Weinstein. Most likely they'll make an announcement "that the foundation will use the money to help female victims" -- this is not rocket science. And actually the Clinton Foundation has a good point: why return the money? In fact, they need to go to Weinstein and ask for more. LOL. 

October 14, 2017, T+266: Harvey Weinstein starting to make Bill Cosby look like a Boy Scout.

October 13, 2017, T+265: "I knew this all the time [about rapist Weinstein] but didn't say anything because I did not feel it was my place [to say anything]." -- Jane Fonda. Wow.

October 12, 2017, T+264: pushback from Weinstein story has fingerprints of Hillary's War Room all over it. [Later, ultimately failed.]

October 11, 2017, T+263: in his tweets, Trump is not backing down.

October 10, 2017, T+262: NFL commissioner flip-flops -- now agrees with Trump. Players should stand for the national anthem.

October 9, 2017, T+261: VP Pence walks out of home NFL game when players kneel.