Saturday, May 20, 2023

Another Nice Ovintiv Rolla Well Drilled Back In 2013 -- May 20, 2023

Locator: 44703ROLLA.  

See this note.

The well, drilled ten years ago and looks like a new well.

  • 24452, 999, Ovintiv, Rolla State 152-97-1-12-10H, Westberg, t5/13; cum 273K 3/23;

Back in 2022, a huge jump in production:

BAKKEN2-2022281036410361806427284256411643
BAKKEN1-20223118269184891069842297422970
BAKKEN12-202131202272028415757492501130637665
BAKKEN11-2021171341013135117742366423219308
BAKKEN10-20211062282258547750
BAKKEN9-20213010731156409317529050
BAKKEN8-202131710897400276524860
BAKKEN7-20213116971498664334730680
BAKKEN6-20212229102133291340
BAKKEN5-202124353584270191017080

 The map:

Updating A Great Well -- And Finding A Surprise -- May 20, 2023

Locator: 44702ROLLA.   

After this well is posted, we'll take a look at #24452! LOL. See this note.

The well:

  • 38082, conf-->drl/drl, Ovintiv, Rolla 152-97-1-12-5HLW, Westberg, first production, 11/21; t--; cum 15K over first eight days; see this note; cum 466K 3/23;

Total production profile:

PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN3-2023311120911269920271996716640
BAKKEN2-2023281092410699836968157663271548
BAKKEN1-20233112960129791047774265717132252
BAKKEN12-2022281114611110715163867614632128
BAKKEN11-2022301444114422112537450973460780
BAKKEN10-2022311654716632124318570685045390
BAKKEN9-2022301426114161133448926888069941
BAKKEN8-202231221852219115109120769120113356
BAKKEN7-20223123378235371701099483967972686
BAKKEN6-2022302802227797186771156921142741418
BAKKEN5-202231328893315318564109173108209964
BAKKEN4-2022273209632137166528684086699141
BAKKEN3-202231499354976423632123371122822549
BAKKEN2-2022285190752101237751138111138110
BAKKEN1-2022315874658668278991276611276610
BAKKEN12-202131610426101228899119074118877197
BAKKEN11-20218146451416848982723727120117

The map:

Is CLR Fracking New Skachenko Wells? May 20, 2023

Locator: 44701SKACHENKO.  

CLR's Skachenko - Meadowlark wells are tracked here

Several Skachenko wells have just gone off line suggesting new fracking activity in the area.

More Skunk Creek Wells -- May 20, 2023

Locator: 44700SKUNK. 

The Skunk Creek wells are tracked here.

May 20, 2023: more Skunk wells:

  • 36401, conf-->PNC/DRL, WPX, Skunk Creek 4-24-26-16HU,
  • 36404, conf-->PNC/DRL, WPX, Skunk Creek 4-244-25-13H3
  • 36480, conf, WPX, Skunk Creek 12-7-8-8H3A, Heart Butte, was PNC, apparently "A" now; great initial production;
  • 36479, conf, WPX, Skunk Creek 12-7-8-9HA, Heart Butte, was PNC, apparently "A" now; great initial production;
  • 36481, conf, WPX, Skunk Creek 12-7-8-16H, Heart Butte, was PNC, apparently "A" now; great initial production;
  • 36483, conf, WPX, Skunk Creek 12-7-8-16HA, Heart Butte, was PNC, apparently "A" now; great initial production;
  • 36482, conf, WPX, Skunk Creek 12-7-8-16H3, Heart Butte, was PNC, apparently "A" now; great initial production;
  • 36484, conf, WPX, Skunk Creek 12-7-8-9H3A, Heart Butte, was PNC, apparently "A" now; great initial production;

California Bullet Train Update -- May 21, 2023

Locator: 44699CA.

Locator: 44461BT. 

Updates

May 20, 2023: California to open relief valves to mitigate Lake Tulare flooding

The intertie functions like a gated alley connecting two much larger streets. On one side lies a stretch of the Kern River called the Buena Vista Channel, and on the other is the California Aqueduct, a simple name for a complex system of tunnels and pipelines that transports water from Northern California and the Sierra to the state's arid central and southern expanses.

Original Post

I don't know if folks remember this, but if you do, hold that thought. This was the huge Red River flood of Grand Forks back in 1997. Photo link here.

Fast forward.

Out in California, The Los Angeles Times reports on something similar facing Tulare, California, central valley, northwest of Los Angeles, northwest of Bakersfield. Tulare Lake is back. See also the blog of June 24, 2017.

This story may or may not be behind a paywall. I was able to access it without difficulty.

The flooding has only recently begun and is expected to last at least two more years, assuming I read the article correctly, which seems correct because the state is working on a plan to raise the existing earth dikes another 3.5 feet.

What the flood plain looks like on the map:

Why this story is of interest? Not so much what was reported but what was not reported.

The California Bullet Train.

Link here.

The map from the state of California:

Going back to the earlier map:

Note: this is the easy part of the bullet-train-rail -- flat. No tunnels. No mountains. No major river crossings. Just absolutely flat.

And flooded.

The good news: they can put 12-foot dikes on either side / both sides of the rails.

The bullet train is tracked (no pun intended) here.

***************************
Current Cost / Funding Status

Link here.

US Default -- How It Plays Out -- According To The WSJ -- May 20, 2023

Locator: 44696ECON.  

Link here, and somewhat interactive.

US national debt: $31 trillion.

FY2023: How much does the debt ceiling need to be raised this year: ~ $1.5 trillion.

  • 1.5 / 31 = 5%

FY2022:

  • total government spending: $6.27 trillion
  • total revenue: $4.90 trillion
  • a deficit of $1.38 trillion (FY22)
  • a decrease of $1.40 trillion from the previous fiscal year

Why is "x" day most likely June 1?

Current talk:

  • "x" day: June 1, 2023 -- probably not sooner; that's because military pay/pensions go out at end of month; though Social Security payments are made throughout the month, but Congressional votes would be held daily, if necessary, to ensure SocSec payments are made; US interest on debt could easily be missed.
  • military pay and pension: deposited in banks on June 1, 2023 -- will probably "be safe" for month of June; default certainly won't last through an entire month
  • June 1, 2023: deficit at that moment in time estimated to be $75 billion (Janet Yellen can easily find $75 billion to pay military)
  • June 1, 2023: $47 billion in Medicare; everyone knows how that plays out; so Medicare is not a problem
  • June 2, 2023: $25 billion in Social Security benefits (again, Janet Yellen can easily find $25 billion to make that payment
  • June 15, 2023: US Treasury to receive $79 billion in revenue from quarterly filers; $2 billion interest payment must also be met;
  • the calendar continues,but ther's no way the government defaults for more than a few days after "x" day

If "x" day falls any later than June 1, 2023, it's unlikely military would be affected at all.

To withhold Social Security checks would be political suicide; not sure who would get most blame but the fact would remain: first US default (in modern history) would occur under a Biden administration

"Easiest" source of cash from general fund:

  • payments to defense contractors for a few days;
  • foreign aid payments
  • UN dues
  • property taxes and rent due by government agencies to states and REITS
  • and, then, of course, the "go-to" fix: shut down the national parks.

If the US gets through June 1, 2023, some folks think think the "default" story could be pushed out a few more months

Another Incredible CLR Well Drilled Back In 2016 -- Updated -- May 20, 2023

Locator: 44695B. 

The Nashville wells are tracked here.

The well:

  • 31357, 1,102, CLR, Nashville 2-21H, Catwalk, 40 stages, 8.7 million lbs, t6/16; cum 517K 9/20; easily exceeding a 900,000 bbl-EUR type curve (per CLR corporate presentation, data as of 9/6/16): off line 5/20; back on line 8/20; cum 543K 7/21; cum 612K 3/23;

This was drilled back in 2016. Look at recent production. A real steady Eddy. 

PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN3-202331651166816808919487980
BAKKEN2-202322223818963472237120940
BAKKEN1-202331278829014577278223750
BAKKEN12-202229226523533424222018970
BAKKEN11-202230275126184190293025360
BAKKEN10-202231269126374403306326560
BAKKEN9-202230259327994572306926750
BAKKEN8-202231251921404683284624390
BAKKEN7-202231409041475840535049430
BAKKEN6-202230617264157053783974530
BAKKEN5-202225262721883901245821730
BAKKEN4-202226261728383834297626810
BAKKEN3-202231340937525328417237750

Another Example Of The Incredible Bakken -- So Much For All That Talk About Parent Wells Not Doing Well -- May 20, 2023

Locator: 44694B. 

This well and its friends are tracked here.

The well:

  • 17771, A/IA/585, MRO, Jay Sandstrom USA 34-31H, Reunion Bay, t3/09; cum 542K 10/20; off line 11/20 remains off line 7/21; cum 571K 7/22; cum 591K 3/23;

Recent production:

PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN3-2023312642260518957749739952
BAKKEN2-2023282628269317186356603747
BAKKEN1-202331289928772307582753413
BAKKEN12-2022292116207715844856447062
BAKKEN11-202230265326871678629559331
BAKKEN10-202231229022841824526249600
BAKKEN9-202230195919701746518751070
BAKKEN8-202229223422031771628061900
BAKKEN7-202231187918881642585257550
BAKKEN6-202230245924331622502349260
BAKKEN5-2022313405340922824293408798
BAKKEN4-20222728602867269231932866240
BAKKEN3-202231401340124234372536140
BAKKEN2-202228329232753887395538610
BAKKEN1-202231386838674423507249600
BAKKEN12-202131384238064199398236780
BAKKEN11-202130251725026891284526560
BAKKEN10-20213187386610315120111330
BAKKEN9-2021489881086210104106
BAKKEN8-20210000000
BAKKEN7-20210000000
BAKKEN6-20210000000
BAKKEN5-20210000000
BAKKEN4-20210000000
BAKKEN3-20210000000
BAKKEN2-202100880000
BAKKEN1-20210000000
BAKKEN12-20200000000
BAKKEN11-2020410919017344207110
BAKKEN10-20202444447813516201186276
BAKKEN9-20203014661468661479145270
BAKKEN8-202031208020689466269591845
BAKKEN7-20202214571430636413225741352
BAKKEN6-2020291743172980354004914214
BAKKEN5-2020311679184576753864775324

We All Know What's Going On -- May 20, 2023

Locator: 44690UKR. 

Putin's War: great example of the point being made below. There's no way Ukraine did this without airborne intel and recon. Link here. See incredible videos and photos at the link.


Locator
: 44678UKR.  

Comment: the breadth and depth the US military can throw at Russia is absolutely insane. BRAC resulted in a loss of many overseas bases, but fortunately, not all was lost. Rota, Spain, comes to mind. Great memories.

Updates

11:46 a.m. CT: about the time the UK-based Rivet Joint returned home safely, a US Navy C-40 Clipper was arriving same area that RRR had been monitoring all day.

Original Note

Rivet Joint: link here.

Putin's war: most followed a/c over at FlightRadar24 right now:

These aircrews are racking up combat pay, hazardous duty pay, meritorious medals, flight hours, experience, TDY pay, by the bucketload. They earn every penny, every atta-boy. Putin has no idea -- or maybe he does -- how much the US is learning / gaining in this war. Priceless.