Ethiopia will cut carbon emissions by two-thirds by 2030. Really? This is news. From AFP:
Ethiopia has set targets to slash carbon emissions by two-thirds within
the next 15 years, the most ambitious goal so far presented to an
upcoming UN climate change conference in Paris.
LOL. Ethiopia could cut its carbon emissions by two-thirds if it quit
sending a) negotiators to Paris; and, b) marathon runners to Boston.
Population of Ethiopia: 100 million.
Ethiopia's major source of CO2 emissions, burning a) camel dung; b)
trees. By 2030 the country will be completely deforested and that will
account for at least a third of the reduction. Another third will be
achieved by creative accounting.
So, how is Ethiopia doing? Yes, there is an "emissions tracking" site. Ethiopia won't even come close to cutting emissions -- I've long forgotten why deforestation will lead to a reduction in CO2 emissions -- that may have been posted in error. Whatever.
July 24, 2021: Whiting to acquire 8,752 net acres in the Sanish for $271 million; works out to about $31K / net acre. Whiting now with about 480,000 net acres.
six years of drilling activity in the Bakken with a 2-rig program
April 1, 2020: files for bankruptcy; continues operations in the ND Bakken;
3Q19: corporate presentation; 34 permits recently canceled; third largest position in the Bakken with 471,000 net acres;
4Q18 and full year presentation: link here. Total net acreage: 470,443 net acres.
2Q18: acquires 54,833 acres; $130 million; production at 103,480 boepd; total acreage now ~ 464,426 net ares; compare with about 800,000 acres for CLR in the Williston Basin;
2Q16 Enercome Conference: 444,214 net acres in the Williston Basin;
99% held by production; 5,499 potential gross drilling locations as of
June 30, 2016; targeting 900,000 boe EUR in 2016; plan to complte 60
gross wells in 2016 and project appr 22 DUCs at 12/31/2016.
4Q15 earnings transcript;
about 455,000 acres in the Bakken after selling "a couple hundred
thousand acres" in 2015; sold the Lewis and Clark play ($41 million; new
owner looking to "do some other type of drilling there"); sold some of
their western Bakken as well; does not seem to mention the 89,500 net
acres sold to NP Resources (January 14, 2016, press release)
Daily Activity report with the 78 wells Whiting transferred to White Rock Oil & Gas, LLC, January 28, 2016
transfers 331 wells to five other companies,
noted December 29, 2015; companies include Foundation Energy
Management, LLC; Cobra Oil and Gas Corp; and, White Rock Oil and Gas
LLC;
4Q14: KOG deal with Whiting closes. Whiting owns KOG. KOG ticker symbol no longer for Kodiak Oil and Gas. 685,000 + 183,000 =
838,000 acres (MT and ND); 7,541 future gross drilling locations in
Bakken and Three Forks; "control the sweet spots of central, eastern,
and southern Williston Basin";
June 30, 2013: 697,259 net acres (corporate presentation)
August, 2013: will acquire 17,282 net acres;
$260 million; current production of 2,420 bopd, could knock off about
$30 million for price paid; about $13,500/acre? in the Missouri Breaks
and Hidden Bench prospects;
2Q13: Rocky Mts: 70,000 boepd;
4Q12 transcript; 66,156 bopd (true bbls, not boe) from the Bakken; CEO says 700,000+ acres;
November, 2012: NOG says 714,567 acres; proved reserves: 379 million
boe; #1 oil producer in the Bakken; CLR is a close second (some lists
may show CLR #1)
701,751 net acres
(Bakken: ND and MT) 1Q12; based on additional 13,300 net acres acquired
in March, 2012 (Missouri Breaks); additional 20,000 since end of 2011;
average cost of all Bakken acres: $503/acre.
681,504 net acres, source, CEO, February, 2012, presentation
680,137 net acres, source: CEO, October, 2011, presentation
2Q12: goal - 160 net wells in core areas; added 4,000 net acres to
Missouri Breaks; each WLL rig now drills 12 wells/year (vs 10); pad vs
stand-alone cost savings, $500K; ratio of 1.5 workover rigs to drilling
rigs, looking to acquire 6 more workover rigs;
Previous update: Net Bakken acreage (Montana + North Dakota): 580,000 net acres
According to SeekingAlpha, May 3, 2011: 603,702 net acres
Total acquisition cost: $141 million or $243/acre
Net Bakken acreage, North Dakota only: 2Q12: 450,000 net acres; net in ND/MT, 697,259, July, 2013; net
in ND and MT: 703,668 in 2013; for July, 2013, acreage average cost: $549/acre; as of 12/31/2012, Whiting's acreage cost
averages out to $521/net acre
Sanish / Parshall Prospect: 82,400 in June, 2013; 82,533 in 2013; 83,011 net acres and 99 wells in 2010; 106 in 2011; EURs 450 - 950
(middle Bakken) and 400 mboe for upper Three Forks in the Sanish; 2Q12,
only 22 stages for best well to date, the Smith 41-12H; initiated pad
drilling in the Sanish; costs down $2 million/well --> $7
million/well in Williston Basin; 2Q12 -- maybe 50 more wells yet to
drill in the Sanish;
Lewis and Clark: 134,034, July, 2013; 134,114, June, 3013; 134,861 in 2013; was 128,370 net acres; Lewis & Clark NW of Belfield; 1 rig;
Pronghorn: 128,596, July, 2013; 128,080 in June, 2013; 128,113 in 2013; was 121,403 net acres; Belfield area; TFS Exploration
Drilling; Pronghorn is between Belfield and Dickinson; 5 rigs in the
Pronghorn. 2Q12: ~ $6.5 million/well;
Hidden Bench:
28,832, June, 20133; 28,556 in 2013; was 30,036 net acres; middle
Bakken, TFS. 2Q12 -- "one of the very best projects in the company";
additional producing interval/payzone: the "Lower Bakken Silt" -- sits
between the lower Bakken shale and the Pronghorn/Sanish sands;
Tarpon: 6,258, June, 2013; 6,265 in 2013; was 6,359 net acres; Watford City area; middle Bakken, TFS; Tarpon Federal 21-4H -- record IP in the Bakken
Starbuck: 89,815, July, 2013; 91,228, June, 2013; 92,227 in
2013; 91,497 net acres; Montana, west of Williston; Middle Bakken; [prev
88K net acres];
Missouri Breaks: 57,526, July, 2013; 65,481, June, 2013;
66,095 in 2013; was 62,000 net acres; Montana, west of McKenzie County;
EURs - 350,000K
Cassandra: 13,951, July 2013; 13,883, June, 2013; 13,816 in 2013; was 13,794 net acres; Ray area, east of Williston; Middle Bakken;
Big Island: 125,795, July, 2013; 125,530, June, 2013; 122,389 in 2013; 121,673 net acres; Golden Valley County, southwest corner of ND; multiple objectives;
earlier presentation 120K; 50 vertical well prospects (2Q12); all
successful Madison wells; EURs of 250,000K; completion costs: $3.5
million; now drilling the Red River;
Other ND & MT: 28,719, June, 2013; 28,813 in 2013;
15 rigs in North Dakota; 1 rig only in Big Island; will increase to 24 rigs in the Bakken (ND/MT) -- 1Q12 earnings press release;
Feds released 168,000 illegal immigrant family members into communities
April set new records, with the Border Patrol nabbing more than 58,000
illegal immigrants traveling as families in that month alone
for the first time in history, nearly half of the adults arriving
are bringing children with them, looking to take advantage of the
loopholes in U.S. policy that they believe — usually correctly — will
earn them a foothold in the U.S.
Miscellaneous:
1% of total population of Guatamala, Honduras has entered US during recent southern surge
State Auditor Joshua Gallion was elected auditor in 2016 after Republican Robert
Peterson did not run for a sixth term, marking an end of a long
father-son dynasty. Peterson's father, Robert W. Peterson, held the job
for 24 years before his son was elected in 1996 as his successor.
*******************************
Notes to the Granddaughters
Our middle school granddaughter won a school-wide debate that was "run" bracket style, like "March Madness," one student vs one student; the winner would take on the winner of another debate and this continued for about ten days. It was a fairly big deal. Our granddaughter got a difficult issue to defend. We were sure she would not make it to the sweet sixteen, much less to the quarter-finals.
In fact, she won the championship. Took first place. Her dad was thrilled. He said he could now get to bed by midnight and not have to listen to her practicing her argument(s) all night. I have never seen anyone so competitive in all my life. Athletics, academics, it doesn't matter. Whatever the situation, she "plays to win." When she was two years old, her dad said she would grow up to be a dictator of a small country.
The judges said, in regard to the championship in which she went against the highly favored-to-win: She got him on “rhetorical fallacies and equivocations.”
In the semi-finals, she drove her male opponent to tears. He had to leave the room for several minutes to compose himself. She showed no mercy in taking him down.
But, wow, to lose on "rhetorical fallacies and equivocations!" How much worse can it get?
Comments: XTO has permits for a 4-well Jorgenson Federal pad in section 9-148-96 in Lost Bridge oil field; it's hard to believe but these may be the first permits this year for Lost Bridge
Eleven permits renewed:
BR (6): five Gladstone permits in McKenzie County and one Catalina permits in Dunn County
EOG (5): five Riverview permits in McKenzie County
Had I not blogged I would not have heard from many folks who have thoughts and opinions on the Bakken and some of the other topics on which I occasionally write.
I'm pretty sure I never would have heard of Victor Davis Hanson. I certainly never would have heard of a "carver's cabin."
Hold that thought (re: Victor Davis Hanson).
US Secretary of State is a busy person. He cut short a meeting in Germany to show up in Iraq earlier this week and later this week, he will be in Beverly Hills, California, to receive the Claremont Institute Statesmanship Award. Victor Davis Hanson will be master of ceremonies.
By the way, it's my understanding that social media, such as Facebook, has banned the Claremont Institute from their sites. I could be wrong on that but I thought I read that somewhere.
I had not even heard of the Claremont Institute until I went to Barnes and Noble looking for a book review periodical to replace the New York Times Review and The London Review which have become Hillary mouthpieces, much like The New Yorker.
May 10, 2019: in the original post below, I opined about the CEO's comment that the rate of return was infinite on "parent-well-uplift" production. I thought that was a bit of hyperbole.
Having thought about
that, technically speaking, he is absolutely correct. The rate of return
associated with that well was based on projections and
actual production from the well without extra production as a
result of the "halo" effect. If one continues to separate all those
costs / the rate of return from "halo" production, then, yes, of course, the rate of return
is infinite. That production was never anticipated; it was never factored into the original rate of return. The real question, of course, does it "move the needle"?
Original Post
A huge "thank you" to a reader. I would have missed this. Finally, the "halo" effect is recognized by the experts.
From a reader:
Whiting's latest investor presentation - slides #18/19/20 - show graphically halo effect on older wells.
Whiting's suits use the phrase 'parent well uplift'.
Should
you go through the conference call transcript (available through
Seeking Alpha), you will find several questions from the seemingly
surprised analysts about this.
Link to slides here. Look at slides #18, #19, and #20, to "parent well uplift" ("halo effect").
I haven't had a chance to do this yet, but am eager to see how this is presented. Again, a huge "thank you" to the reader for bringing this to my attention.
At least for the time being, I will probably still use the "halo" effect tag.
From the Q & A:
Question from Mike Kelly, analyst:
Thank you. Good morning, guys. I was hoping you could frame the benefit of this kind of parent well uplift phenomenon that you're seeing. And maybe if we could just kind of look at that from what this could potentially do to EURs maybe as a combined child well plus the added benefit here from the incremental production you'd see from the parent well?
Or maybe from a returns perspective, just take a 50% IRR up to potentially 60% or 70%. Just so looking at these slides, I mean it's pretty amazing to see the uplift on Slide 20 for example. But if you could just frame just what the ultimate benefit could look like?
Answer from CEO, Brad Holly:
Yes. Mike, thanks for the question and thanks for pointing that out. Slide 20 really shows there's a typical Bakken well, that's formed for five years and it's on the definite trend and it's made over 200,000 barrels of oil. And we go in and complete three offsets and the offsets are 250% better than the original well. And that's after 180 days.
Again to Chip's points on the opening we're not basing this on 30-day IPs. I mean this is substantial production and we're seeing the parent just take off. This is one of the better examples on Slide 20 where we show a couple of others in the packet. So we're seeing different performance. It's not all the same. It's variable how it's hitting the parent wells.
But I think Mike what it highlights is that the original Gen 1 and Gen 2 completions were very poorly done in the space and were not contacting enough of the rock around it. And so the newer Gen 4, Gen 5 completions are very efficient or actually touching rock that was never touched before. And so we do believe it is incremental production.
And the rate of return on the parent wells is infinite. And -- but if you tuck that on to the economics of the investment dollars that we're spending, it's significant. I mean we think it's a 10% to 20% uplift probably in the IRR right now. But we're still -- it's early times and we're watching all that. But we're extremely excited about what we're seeing.
I assume "infinite" was a bit of hyperbole. Perhaps a better word, or phrase: "... the rate of return on any given parent well is unknown but could certainly be significant."
A federal judge has sent back to North Dakota state court a lawsuit alleging the environmental group Greenpeace conspired against the Dakota Access oil pipeline.
The two sides had agreed to the move, and U.S. District Judge Daniel Hovland recently signed off on it.
Texas-based pipeline developer Energy Transfer Partners maintains Greenpeace and others should be held responsible for trying to disrupt pipeline construction and damage the company's reputation and finances. Greenpeace accuses ETP of using the legal system to bully critics.
Greenpeace had cited federal law dealing with court jurisdiction to try to get the state lawsuit moved to federal court, where the group had already prevailed against racketeering claims alleged by ETP.
But ETP disputed Greenpeace's argument, and Greenpeace late last week acknowledged the company was correct.
The comments are worth reading to get a feeling for how this case is playing out among those who are even paying attention.
B.C. Premier John Horgan has urged Prime Minister Justin Trudeau to use the Alberta-B.C. pipeline he bought to help drivers get past a period of record gasoline prices.
Horgan said he reminded Trudeau about the changing products of the Trans Mountain pipeline, which transports refined fuels, light crude and diluted bitumen from the Edmonton area to port and refinery facilities in Burnaby and Washington state.
“I laid out for him my concerns about the inordinate spike in retail gas prices in B.C., which was not connected to any policy decision, it just seemed to be, in my opinion, gouging,” Horgan told reporters at the B.C. legislature Tuesday.
“I said I was disappointed to see so much diluted bitumen coming into the existing pipe at the expense of refined product. He understood that. He talked about the National Energy Board processes [still ongoing after a court decision delaying the expansion] and he concluded that he would ask his officials to take a look.”
I doubt most readers caught this or connected the dots.
Except for those who have been living under the Geico Rock, "everyone" is aware of the proposal by Occasional-Cortex to ban air travel in the future and, instead, rely on rail.
Cynics pointed out that this would be difficult for those who wanted to travel between the US and the EU.
It turns out a Portuguese scientist, João Duarte, has found evidence suggesting that a tectonic plate may have peeled apart -- and that could shrink the Atlantic Ocean. The report was published in the same "journal" that predicted the Statue of Liberty would be submerged by the time our grandchildren entered college.
If confirmed, the new work would be the first time an oceanic plate has been caught in the act of peeling—and it may mark one of the earliest stages of the Atlantic Ocean shrinking, sending Europe inching toward Canada as predicted by some models of tectonic activity.
So, Trans Canada Railway, with stops at: Montreal, Quebec City, St Johns (Newfoundland), Aluk Tunorleg (Greenland), Reykjavik, Edinburgh, Paris. From Edinburgh to Paris, the train will be known as the Hogwarts Express, where it will connect with the Orient Express. And, then of course, the last short leg, the Bering Express connecting Siberia with Palintown, Alaska.
By the way, is applying "Express" to names of railroads an oxymoron?
Occasional-Cortex -- looking better and better every day.
*************************
Moby, The Musician
It's too bad this wonderful bio of Moby is behind a WSJ paywall. Maybe it's free. I don't know. But it was an incredibly good bio of Moby, about his life as a child. His father died when he was two years old; he was "raised" (and the term is used loosely) by a flower child of the 60's. The beginning:
A young widow, my mother was pretty and loved the beatnik life. She
wanted to be a painter and hang out in Greenwich Village. Connecticut
was too mainstream and confining for her. So in 1969, my mother and I
flew to San Francisco. She used the two plane tickets her parents gave
her as a graduation present. When we arrived, I remember the city being
overrun with hippies.
My mother was a free spirit. But from my adolescent
perspective, her daily routine with her new hippie friends was
terrifying. Often, they’d pile into a VW with me in tow, drive around
smoking pot, walk around with other hippies, and smoke more pot. None of
them had jobs and all complained about not getting enough money from
home.
One of my early memories in San Francisco was my mother and her
friends sneaking me into an X-rated movie house. They were high and
needed a place to hang out.
After six months of this, my mother and I returned to
Connecticut. I assume her reasoning was practical, that her son needed
to start school. She felt the pull of the familiar.
We moved into an apartment near her parents’ house in Darien,
Conn. When I started kindergarten in 1970, my mother found new hippie
friends.
I think she gravitated toward that lifestyle because her dad
worked on Wall Street. She felt liberation would be possible only by
rejecting her parents and embracing the counterculture.
Music was his "safe space."
Moby is now highly successful and doing well.
By the way, he, too, like me, cannot abide large houses, or McMansions. He lives in a modest abode in Los Feliz, Los Angeles.
Moby's music:
First 45 (I wonder how many folks know what "45" is): C.W. McCall’s “Convoy.”
First album: “Live and Let Die” soundtrack
Favorite ‘80s albums: New Order’s “Power, Corruption & Lies,” Echo & the Bunnymen’s “Heaven Up Here” and Joy Division’s “Closer.”
********************************* Almost Twenty Years Old
May 8, 2019: good news? Or is the data being manipulated? Or not fully explained? Or are analysts / research firms trying to CTA? If you don't like the EIA data, you have any number of analysts from which to choose. Good luck to all.
weekly crude oil inventories: decreased by 4.0 million bbls -- amazing how free-market capitalism works
currently crude oil in storage:466.6 million; at the 5-year average -- well, sort of
total motor gasoline: decreased a bit; about 2% below the 5-year average (much of this due to California issues)
refineries: at 88.9% operating capacity; again, much of this is due to California)
look at this: jet fuel product supplied up almost 7% compared with four-week period last year
#OOTT: EIA's crude oil supply adjustment (unaccounted oil) plunged from +685kbpd to -856kbpd last week.
Javier Blas, #OOTT: U.S. imports of Saudi Arabia crude collapsed last week to 311,000 b/d -- lowest in weekly data going back to 2010 (and most likely the lowest since the mid-1980s, based on monthly data).
Venezuela: imports dropped back to zero. Nada. Zilch. Previous week, US imported 186,000 bbls from Venezuela; compare with 311,000 bbls imported from Saudi Arabia last week.
A 323-acre portion of the proposed Northstar Center has been sold to its creditor, Yam Capital, for almost $12 million.
The owners of the property did have an agreement with Yam Capital for an
extension, to try and repay the money owed on the property. Court
records indicated the amount was $9.031 million last year, but that
amount has been accruing interest at the rate of 30 percent since then.
Background, data points:
535-acre
mixed-use development
$16 million budgeted fro roads, curbs, gutter, water, sewer
on US Highway 2, north of Williston
would have been across the highway from another mixed-use development called Williston Crossings
neither project made it off the ground
master plan for Northstar: 2,000+ dwelling units; 2.7 million square feet of commercial space
substantial greenspace, including a 47-acre community park; and 58 acres of passive open space
The portion Yam Capital now owns is one the east of the property with road frontage.
Oil and gas exploration is off to an explosive start in 2019, with
such majors as BP, Eni and Exxon Mobil taking a bigger bite of the
conventional resources discovered in the first quarter, according to a
new report by Norwegian research firm Rystad Energy.
At the end of the first quarter global discoveries of conventional
resources reached 3.2 billion barrels of oil equivalent (boe). Most of
the gains were recorded in February, announcing some 2.2 billion barrels
of newly discovered resources – the best monthly total on record since
August 2015.
The six largest discoveries by the oil majors each exceeded 150
million boe, and the top three could even hold more than 300 million boe
apiece.
American major ExxonMobil was the most successful, with three
significant offshore discoveries accounting for over 38 percent of total
discovered volumes in the first quarter of 2019. With discoveries made
offshore of Cyprus with 700 million barrels of oil equivalent in the
Eastern Mediterranean and off of Guyana in South America with more than 5
billion oil-equivalent barrels.
Apart from Exxon Mobil, the other top discoveries were made by
Paris-based oil major Total, with its Brulpadda find estimated to have a
potential 1 billion barrels of "wet" gas off the coast of South Africa.
Spanish-based Repsol's South Sumatran seas find has preliminary
estimates of at least 2 trillian cubic feet of recoverable resources,
making it the largest such find in Indonesia for 18 years.
And in Britain’s North Sea China’s CNOOC, in a partnership with
Total, made an offshore find equivalent to 250 million barrels of oil.
“If the rest of 2019 continues at a similar pace, this year will be
on track to exceed last year’s discovered resources by 30 percent,” says
Taiyab Zain Shariff, Upstream Analyst at Rystad Energy.
Last month, corporate taxes came in at $3.4 billion, much higher than [Governor] Newsom administration’s estimated $2.6 billion.
Income taxes also came in ahead of projections, making up for a shortfall earlier in the year, according to the Legislative Analyst’s Office.
If the trend continues, the state is looking at another big surplus this year.
Oil and gas exploration is off to an explosive start in 2019, with
such majors as BP, Eni and Exxon Mobil taking a bigger bite of the
conventional resources discovered in the first quarter, according to a
new report by Norwegian research firm Rystad Energy.
At the end of the first quarter global discoveries of conventional
resources reached 3.2 billion barrels of oil equivalent (boe). Most of
the gains were recorded in February, announcing some 2.2 billion barrels
of newly discovered resources – the best monthly total on record since
August 2015.
The six largest discoveries by the oil majors each exceeded 150
million boe, and the top three could even hold more than 300 million boe
apiece.
American major ExxonMobil was the most successful, with three
significant offshore discoveries accounting for over 38 percent of total
discovered volumes in the first quarter of 2019. With discoveries made
offshore of Cyprus with 700 million barrels of oil equivalent in the
Eastern Mediterranean and off of Guyana in South America with more than 5
billion oil-equivalent barrels.
Apart from Exxon Mobil, the other top discoveries were made by
Paris-based oil major Total, with its Brulpadda find estimated to have a
potential 1 billion barrels of "wet" gas off the coast of South Africa.
Spanish-based Repsol's South Sumatran seas find has preliminary
estimates of at least 2 trillian cubic feet of recoverable resources,
making it the largest such find in Indonesia for 18 years.
And in Britain’s North Sea China’s CNOOC, in a partnership with
Total, made an offshore find equivalent to 250 million barrels of oil.
“If the rest of 2019 continues at a similar pace, this year will be
on track to exceed last year’s discovered resources by 30 percent,” says
Taiyab Zain Shariff, Upstream Analyst at Rystad Energy.
IMO 2020: marine fuel rule could wreck demand for Mexican residual fuel oil -- Argus Media. Mexico exported 66,000 b/d of its residual fuel oil production in 1Q19, down from almost 90,000 in 1Q18. IMO 2020 rules set sulphur max at 0.5%; Mexican oil is around 4%.
Mexican president threatens journalists: "you know what will happen for bad coverage.
OXY CEO close to winning the bidding war. Anadarko.
***********************************
Back to the Bakken
Wells coming off the confidential list today -- Wednesday, May 8, 2019: 27 wells for the month; 122 wells for the quarter
35198, 1,777, WPX, North Mabel 3l 2-35HT, Mandaree, t4/19; cum 17K 30 days;
34425, 736, Oasis, Martin 5302 11-4 4B, 50 stages; 10.2 million lbs; Rosebud, t12/18; cum 84K 3/19;
32509, 99 (no typo), BR, CCU Mainstreet 4-1-25TFH, 31 stages; 10.6 million lbs, Corral Creek, t3/19; cum --;
It may be easy to forget in these days of Permian this and Permian that,
but crude oil production in the offshore Gulf of Mexico (GOM) set a
number of new, all-time records in the past couple of years. Better yet,
with a handful of key producers in the Gulf planning low-cost, subsea
tiebacks to existing platforms — and still discovering more oil — it’s a
good bet that offshore production will continue its upward trajectory
into the early 2020s. And, unlike U.S. shale wells, whose production
peaks early then trails off, wells in the GOM typically maintain high
levels of production for years and years. Where do offshore production
and drilling activity stand in the Shale Era, and where are they headed?
Today, we review recent production gains in the Gulf and examine why
the GOM remains the oil sector’s Energizer Bunny.
