Where We Are -- Where We Are Headed -- May 11, 2020

Yesterday (May 11, 2020) I wrote the following and placed it in draft -- I didn't know where to go from here/from there:

Three possible scenarios for the Bakken, from "good" to "bad":

• U-shaped recovery by the end of 2020
• continued fall in activity through end of 2020 and slow but unremarkable "recovery" in 2021
• relatively complete shut-down of the entire Bakken for four years

That was yesterday.  

All of a sudden, the Bakken looks trivial compared to what's going on vis-à-vis the corona virus story. I wish Hunter S Thompson was still around to put this story in perspective. I don't know if folks have seen this story ...

.... break, break ... for some reason this is as good a time as any to be listening to Led Zeppelin ...

.... I was saying ... I don't know if folks have seen this story -- Los Angeles County will be "shut down" for at least the next three months ... through July for sure --- possibly into / through August.

California State University with 23 campuses and 50,000 employees, including 27,000 faculty members, will cancel the fall semester. The ripple effects goes well beyond just those 50,000 employees. The CSU system enrolls around 500,000 students. What percent will go elsewhere? Certainly the incoming freshman class will disappear -- it will be the great diaspora as those incoming frosh will now look for new colleges. Winners and losers.

The northeast from New York to Massachusetts seems to be in a similar situation. How many of the twenty-five colleges and universities in Boston alone will open this next fall? It's hard to believe any will -- except perhaps online. Harvard says it will be open this fall, although it my be "virtually/on line." Tufts University is unsure whether it will re-open.

It looks like we're starting to see the Balkanization of the United States based on how states or regions are dealing with the pandemic.

We have states like Florida and Texas which are looking to re-open.

And, then we have states or regions like the northeast and Los Angeles County whose political leaders appear to have panicked, looking to extend the lock down and perhaps even looking to make/take more draconian measures.

Somewhere in between are the states and regions about which we don't pay much attention when it comes to stories like these.

It appears that by the end of this week the US will be trending toward 40 million unemployed.

Break, break ... google US map ...

Yes, just do that ... google that acronym "US" and add map to it .... this is what you will see ..

Is that not bizarre? Corona virus pervades "everything. Google "US workforce wiki" and what do you get? Same thing. Corona virus.

Corona virus pervades everything.

If this were a "smallpox virus" unleashed by Russia I could understand it, but I can't get my head around how the modern (?) world has responded to a virus that causes flu-like symptoms; is much less serious than "seasonal flu" for which we have a vaccine; and, predominantly affects the elderly.

But again, it's the same modern (?) world that is panicked about a two-degree change in the "global temperature."

Just thinking out loud.

No point yet to the idle rambling.

At some point, all these crises reach a tipping point. I thought we had reached the tipping point for this pandemic some weeks ago. I was clearly, clearly wrong. The question I'm trying to address: how does this play out? What will be the tipping point? Will there be a tipping point between now and when we get a vaccine, assuming we "get" a vaccine?

Iron Oil With Three New Permits -- May 12, 2020

Corona virus: I noted yesterday that unless the vaccine is 100% effective and/or the virus simply fades away, at the rate of one million positive tests every three months (the current rate in the US), it will take about ten years (actually 8.3 years) for 300 million Americans to test positive. Apparently the folks in California are taking that to heart:

• California State University has announced it will remain closed through the fall semester, affecting 23 campuses;
• Los Angeles County's stay-at-home orders extended for the next three months; if Orange County follows (and why wouldn't it?) say sayonara to Disney Land;

OPEC Basket: $22.71. Link here. For Saudi Arabia:

Buried Alive, Yeah Yeah Yeahs

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Back to the Bakken

Active rigs:

$25.14	5/12/2020	05/12/2019	05/12/2018	05/12/2017	05/12/2016
Active Rigs	17	66	60	51	27

Three new permits, #37568 - #37570, inclusive --

• Operator: Iron Oil Operating
• Field: Sather Lake (McKenzie County)
• Comments:
• Iron Oil has permits for three Antelope wells, two on a pad in lot 3, section 3-148-102; the third in section 2-148-102
• for more on Iron Oil, see this post;

One producing well (DUC) reported as completed:

• 36653, drl/A, Bruin, FB (Fort Berthold) Bonita 152-93-9B-10-9T, Four Bears, t--; cum --; interestingly enough, the six "FB" wells to the south are all off line (#21800, #21801, #21802, #21807, #21805, #21803)
• 21800, 1,584, t11/12; cum 315K 12/19;
• 21801, 1,206, t11/12; cum 320K 12/19; 
• 21802, 741, t11/12; cum 266K 11/19; 
• 21807, 1,349, t5/14; cum 229K 1/20;
• 21805, 1,362, t5/14; cum 293K 1/20;
• 21803, 1,467, t5/14; cum 398K 10/19;

CLR Will Report A Huge Wahpeton Well -- May 12, 2020

This page will not be updated. The CLR Wahpeton wells are tracked here. 

Back on March 27, 2020, I noted that with oil prices plummeting (going to $0 in some cases), Bakken operators were not reporting production data of DUCs coming to the end of their two-year deadline. Operators were using many new classifications, such as F/A or SI/A. I noted that there really was no way to easily and/or uniformly track these wells. The best I could do was list them as they were reported, and then follow them occasionally.

Here's another great example. This CLR Wahpeton well was a DUC. At some point (the two-year deadline?) it was reported as flowing/active, but no IP. Today, I notice that the well is now on (back on?) the confidential list, something out of the ordinary. So, apparently it ran out the clock as a DUC and was then put on the confidential list. Sure enough, it shows up on the confidential list, and will come off the confidential list on July 16, 2020:

• 35913 F/A -->conf, BR, Wahpeton 15-16HSL, 33-053-08889, fracked 12/19/19 - 12/28/19; 8.5 million gallons of water; 87.8% water by mass;; Banks, 51K first full month; 

Production data to date:

Date	Oil Runs	MCF Sold
3-2020	50843	75713
2-2020	18162	22896
1-2020	357	0

Neighboring, older well(s):

• 19450, huge jump in production, see below; from 773 bbls/month to 6,312 bbls/month, an 8-fold jump;
• 24837, no impact on production;
• 24840, huge jump in production, see below; from 344 bbls/month to 3,725 bbls/month, an 11-fold jump;

24840:

Pool	Date	Days	BBLS Oil	Runs	BBLS Water	MCF Prod	MCF Sold	Vent/Flare
BAKKEN	3-2020	31	3725	3663	3320	4991	4458	0
BAKKEN	2-2020	29	3071	2952	3103	3567	3159	0
BAKKEN	1-2020	8	141	133	280	173	126	2
BAKKEN	12-2019	2	26	54	64	63	47	0
BAKKEN	11-2019	30	375	377	934	852	751	0
BAKKEN	10-2019	31	344	333	800	1312	1169	0
BAKKEN	9-2019	29	215	217	492	1300	1155	4

19450:

Pool	Date	Days	BBLS Oil	Runs	BBLS Water	MCF Prod	MCF Sold	Vent/Flare
BAKKEN	3-2020	30	3478	3659	1458	5016	7	4622
BAKKEN	2-2020	29	6102	6065	4148	9758	619	8747
BAKKEN	1-2020	7	1795	1440	1514	2143	2048	0
BAKKEN	12-2019	2	51	207	20	227	200	0
BAKKEN	11-2019	30	696	795	520	3709	3304	0
BAKKEN	10-2019	29	703	546	527	3309	2917	0
BAKKEN	9-2019	30	773	810	719	3719	3240	74
BAKKEN	8-2019	31	773	786	723	4100	3681	0

What Condition Is My Condition In? -- May 12, 2020

Page views, tracked at the bottom of this page:

• May 12, 2020: 9:37 a.m. Central Time, 13,022,758 pageviews, 41.5 days since the last update; 112,238 pageviews since the last tally: 112,238 / 41.5 = 2,704 pageviews/day. At low end of "average."
• March 31, 2020: 8:19 p.m. Central Time, 12,910,520 pageviews, 15 days since the last update; 46,649 pageviews since the last tally: 46,649 pageviews / 15 days = 3,109 pageviews/day. Not bad, considering.

Page views: we just went over 13 million page views since the beginning of the blog.

Google search: on both "Bakken oil blog" and "Bakken oil blogs" the "MillionDollarWay" is the #1 hit. The other major Bakken blog fell to #4 in both searches.

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The Recipe Page

A reader suggested grilled corn.

Our older granddaughter, of Mexican descent, suggested elotes.

Pick the video you want to watch: elotes.

There are at least five ways to prepare corn on the cob:

• microwave: four minutes
• boil on stove: once the water is boiling, ten minutes
• bake in oven: 45 to 60 minutes (wow)
• grill with husks: 15 to 20 minutes
• grill without husks: probably about the same as with husks

I can't imagine roasting corn on the cob for 45 to 60 minutes in the oven. I would never microwave corn on the cob except to re-heat it. I've always boiled it. Until last night.

I will never, never, never go back to any other method to cook corn on the cob -- cumbersome to say that -- let's just say: elotes -- except on the grill if the grill is available.

We did elotes on the grill last night and they turned out incredibly delicious and it appears foolproof.

Key: soaking corn in water for one hour before grilling

The corn was on the covered grill for a total of 20 minutes:

• seven minutes with one end over direct heat; one end over indirect heat
• the next eight minutes, turn and reverse (the other end over direct heat, etc)
• then, one last turn for the last five minutes

I think there is a lot of "slack" in how much time one needs. If well soaked, I don't think there's much chance of drying the corn out. The husks, of course, become very, very dry, and charred to some extent, but the corn itself remains very, very moist.

If one likes a bit of charred corn, remove the husk before cooking.

I would not use aluminum foil; it's just one more unnecessary step. And I didn't do a thing to prepare the corn before grilling except to soak the ears in water (so prep time, as far as I am concerned, is zero minutes).

Meanwhile, our older granddaughter put out the ingredients for Mexican street vendor elotes and explained how to "fix" the corn:

• ingredients
• mayonnaise (or butter for those who prefer butter); squeeze bottle for each is nice;
• Cotija cheese (a good substitute: feta cheese; our older granddaughter says parmesan is fine)
• Tajin seasoning 
• Valentina hot sauce
• lime juice / sliced limes
• brush mayonnaise or butter on the corn
• sprinkle / drizzle with the other ingredients to taste

Closer Look At Four Hess Wells Coming Off Confidenial List Today -- May 12, 2020

Tier 2: this area, based on activity in this area as seen on the NDIC map, suggests this is probably Tier 2 Bakken. 

The wells:

• 36256, 1,634, Hess, RS-Harstad-155-91-0433H-4, Stanley, t11/19; cum 53K 3/20; 
• 36255, 1,666, Hess, RS-Harstad-155-91-0433H-5, Stanley, t11/19; cum 55K 3/20;
• 35708, 1,692, Hess, SC-Hoving-154-98-1003H-5, Stanley, t11/19; cum 85K 3/20;
• 35707, 2,444, Hess, SC-Hoving-154-98-1003H-6,Truax, t11/19; cum 119K 3/20;

Neighboring wells:

• 18130, 363, Hess, RS-Harstad-155-91-0433H-1, Stanley, t8/09; cum 156K 8/19; remains off line 3/20;

Wells to the south; older wells probably impacted by #34043:

• 34043, 484, Lime Rock, Harstad 44-29-2H, Stanley, t11/18; cum 74K 3/20;
• 26734, 168, Lime Rock, Shirley Anne 34-9H, Stanley, t3/14; cum 92K 3/20; small positive impact from above wells;
• 18548, 871, Lime Rock, Harstad 44-9H, Stanle, t8/10; cum 263K 3/20; moderate positive impact, from 1,000 bbls/month to 2,500 bbls/month;
• 22542, 428, Lime Rock, Kevin 24-9H, Stanley, t8/12; cum 158K 3/20; moderate positive impact, from 600 bbls/month to 2,000 bbls/month;

CBR: Federal Agency Sides With North Dakota Vs Washington State -- May 12, 2020

I'm sure that this will be further litigated but for now, see this link.

Hess To Report Four Wells Today; WPX Will Report One -- May 12, 2020

OPEC basket: $22.21, down 71 cents. Amazing. And this was after bullish oil news yesterday: demand up, and OPEC+ agrees to cut production. Meanwhile, WTI is up 5.22%, up $1.26.

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Back to the Bakken

Hess: has only one rig operating in the Bakken. 

Active rigs:

$25.40	5/12/2020	05/12/2019	05/12/2018	05/12/2017	05/12/2016
Active Rigs	18	66	60	51	27

Wells coming off the confidential list today  -- Tuesday, May 12, 2020: 37 for the month; 87 for the quarter, 314 for the year:

• 36635, drl, WPX, Nighthawk 6-34HT, Heart Butte, no production data,
• 36256, 1,634, Hess, RS-Harstad-155-91-0433H-4, Stanley, t11/19; cum 53K 3/20; 
• 36255, 1,666, Hess, RS-Harstad-155-91-0433H-5, Stanley, t11/19; cum 55K 3/20;
• 35708, 1,692, Hess, SC-Hoving-154-98-1003H-5, Stanley, t11/19; cum 85K 3/20;
• 35707, 2,444, Hess, SC-Hoving-154-98-1003H-6,Truax, t11/19; cum 119K 3/20;

RBN Energy: are we on the verge of a propane supply shortage? Are you kidding me! Not again!

During the last two weeks of April, a barrel of propane in Mont Belvieu was more expensive than a barrel of WTI crude oil in Cushing. That’s never happened before. You might think that such an aberration could be blamed on the wacky April-May 2020 COVID crude market, but that is only part of the story. Propane production is falling and pre-COVID projections of continued supply growth are out the window.

But new gas processing plants, pipelines, fractionation facilities, dock capacity and downstream demand have come online in recent years, in anticipation of those ill-fated additional supplies. Already we are seeing flows, price relationships and differentials convulsing in response to the new reality, and projections of future supply/demand imbalances suggest a previously unthinkable possibility: a market that can’t get enough propane supply, especially if the winter of 2020-21 is a cold one. In today’s blog, we will explore the evidence of these market developments that is already visible and look to what may be ahead for propane supply and demand.

No V-Shape Recovery -- May 12, 2020

We'll know six months from now, but the tea leaves suggest we will see no V-shape recovery.

Here in north Texas, "shelter-in-place" restrictions have been greatly eased, and yet there is no huge return to normalcy. I had expected by this past weekend, we would see huge crowds out and about everywhere. Didn't happen.

Still incredibly quiet.

Americans are still scared.

I will give examples later, but need to move along quickly. I will be starting my granddaughter-Uber day shortly. 

There is a vocal minority clamoring for lock down restrictions to be eased in states that still have them, but as noted, these are clearly in the minority.

As noted, in Texas, restrictions have been significantly eased, and we're not seeing a "huge response." People are still staying home.

In addition, the Rasmussen daily presidential poll clearly shows that people support Trump's response to the pandemic. His polling over at Rasmussen is now at recent all-time highs, and wow, well ahead of Obama at this point in the latter's presidency:

As someone else noted, it won't be a V-shaped recovery. At best it will be a "swoosh" recovery.

Saudi Arabia Update: The Winner Takes It All -- The Early Morning Edition -- May 12, 2020

If you have time to read only one article on Saudi Arabia today, read this article over at Zero Hedge; skip the post below. 

This is getting quite fascinating.

Back in 2014 when Saudi opened the oil spigots to crush US shale, they kept at it for almost two years before they finally gave up. The data is not yet all in, the fat lady has not yet sung, this is far from over, but at the moment the tea leaves suggest that after less than a month of trying to do the same, Saudi Arabia is in deep trouble and back-tracking as fast as it can.

There is also, interestingly, but not surprisingly, a race by two opposing sides to put their spin on this. It appears the US shale operators are reporting that they have seen the worst, they have weathered the storm, and they are starting to re-open wells that were shut in just weeks ago. On the other side of the Atlantic, we are getting stories that this is hogwash, that, in fact, Saudi will do just fine, and that it is the US shale operators that are in deep, deep trouble.

From this side of the Atlantic, or "in our corner":

• shale driller already starting to reopen wells, Energy Transfer says; 
• Russia's oil output down to 9.45 million bpd on May 1 - 11, sources; 
• EOG maintains its dividend;
• NOG has a good quarter;

From the other side of the Atlantic, or "in our opponent's corner":

• US refiners killed the golden goose: diesel margins;
• CLR halted June oil sales while awaiting higher prices: CEO;

What is the best way to determine which side is correct? It's really quite simple. Watch what Trump does. Not what he says but what he actually does. And watch what Harold Hamm does.

For me, everything suggests Saudi Arabia is in deep doo-doo.

Before this all happened, it was generally agreed that Saudi Arabia would be a net importer of crude oil by 2025, or thereabouts. I always thought that at some point in the near future, let's say 2025, or thereabouts, Saudi Arabia would be in huge economic trouble. That is the reason why Prince MbS came up with Vision 2030 to diversity his and his country's portfolio.

It is obvious that "2025" arrived five years early for Saudi Arabia. Vision 2030 is dead.

The headlines coming out of Saudi Arabia are startling:

• Aramco is alone among Big Oil to keep media out of AGMs (annual general meetings), Bloomberg;
• Saudi Aramco's first-quarter profit slides 25% as the collapse in oil prices bites; 
• Saudi Aramco maintains its generous dividend payout but it represents the company's entire cash flow;
• Saudi Aramco may cut government payout amid oil plunge; could cut payments to Saudi government by half; 
• Saudi Aramco seeking to re-negotiate / re-structure / call foul on SABIC deal;
• Saudi Aramco had a negative "gearing" of minus 0.2% at the end of 2019, but given the new realities, Aramco may need to borrow this year and could see its "gearing" -- net debt divided by balance sheet capital -- at levels of other oil majors; 
• Saudi Arabia is running out of money; ZeroHedge;
• oil price war puts entire kingdom of Saudi Arabia at risk; (writer pushing his agenda; his book)

The winner takes it all:

The Winner Takes It All, ABBA

Global Warming -- Early Morning Edition -- May 12, 2020

Wow, there's been an incredible number of stories that I want to post regarding the weather and global warming, 2020, but just have not had time. In addition, I just haven't been interested. Too many other stories.

So, for now, this is simply a placeholder. I may or may not come back to it.

We'll see.

This summer when we have the usual hot weather, we will see a barrage of AP, MSNBC, and ABC news stories on global warming.

Cold weather: that will be reported as "weather."

Polar vortex, May, 2020:

• polar vortex unleashes rare May snow; shatters historic low temperature records; AccuWeather;
• historic blast of polar vortex sets scores of records, scatters rare May snow in eastern US, Washington Post;
• polar vortex brings May snow and freeze warnings to New York and New England, The [London] Guardian; 
• New York's Central Park: latest snowfall ever in history of the park; latest ever; Ice Age Now; 

From The [London] Daily Mail:

Rambling / Idle Thoughts On The Corona Virus -- Early Morning Edition -- May 12, 2020

This is interesting, at least to me.

At the sidebar at the right, the blogger app tracks the top ten trending posts. Generally, they are all "recent" posts. Today I noted two very, very old posts that had landed among the top ten:

• an October 23, 2016, post on Williston's draft comprehensive plans for city and county;
• an April 5, 2017, post on Einstein's definition of insanity;

When this happens it leads me to suspect the site is being looked at for reasons that concern me, in a negative way.

Be that as it may, I will slog on, hoping that I'm wrong, and it's simply an anomaly associated with the number of hits on the blog decreasing, and the "law of small numbers." I have not checked the number of hits in quite some time; I may do that later this week just out of curiosity.

After reviewing the post on Einstein's definition of insanity (linked above), I wondered if I should add the global response to the corona virus pandemic. I was just wondering. I wasn't looking for arguments / articles to help me make a decision. Instead, before posting today's "Bakken data" I checked my favorite non-Bakken blogs at the sidebar the right.

Wow, talk about serendipity.

This was the first hit, over at Watts Up With That: lockdown fail in one easy graph. There are several flaws in the writer's analysis but it is what it is, and it's enough to to swing the argument in favor of adding the "global lockdown in response to corona virus" to the list of Einstein's definition of insanity.

But there's a twofer, which really made it serendipitous to have seen this post at this particular moment. At that link, there was a link to another article regarding the pandemic: why herd immunity to Wuhan flu is reached much earlier that thought. If that study is confirmed, it suggests that this "whole thing" could have been over by now had we just let "it" play out, like we did with swine flu and the "ebola panic" under the Obama administration, in which the Obama strategy was fairly simple: "Just chill."

Of course, that was not an option with corona virus given social media, fake news, and a millennial generation that is mathematically challenged.

This one video provides examples of all three (social media, fake news, and a millennial generation that is mathematically challenged):

Re-posting: seriously -- I thought she had blonde roots. LOL. Hey, it's a joke. Okay, I take it back. I thought she was Norwegian -- who else but a Norski could make such a blunder? By the way, Brian Williams could claim he knew this all along, simply stringing his guest out -- he, the straight man; she, the comedienne.

Really Bad Math, Brian Williams

By the way: that math wizard (in the video above) over at the NYT editorial board says she was humiliated because she is African-American. Wow, she can't dig her hole fast enough. She said after her MSNBC debacle, seen by millions, that she needs to go out and buy a calculator.

On top of everything else she did not know that her smart phone already has a calculator app embedded.

By the way, in case you missed it, just this past week, "Fauci" says people should not be wearing masks -- Real Climate Science; no wonder folks are confused.

By the way, Americans like what Trump is doing with regard to corona virus, the Rasmussen daily presidential tracking poll:

You think Pelosi, Schumer, Cuomo, Newsom, et al, aren't watching this poll? LOL.

Another good example of folks not understanding the pandemic, from the BBC over on twitter today: more than 2,000 deaths could have been prevented if Scotland had locked down two weeks earlier according to scientists at Edinburgh University.

The "lock down" was never designed to prevent deaths per se but rather to "flatten the curve."