Apple -- October 31, 2020

In a long note like this there will be content and typographical errors. 

Disclaimer: along with the Bakken, I am inappropriately exuberant about Apple. This has nothing to do with investing in AAPL. This is simply about Apple, the company and their products. 

Disclaimer: this is not an investment site.  Do not make any investment, financial, job, career, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here. 

So, let's start here:

In the graphic above, note the delta between the end of the 4th quarter (the September-ending quarter) and the 1st quarter (the December-ending quarter). Some are predicting that 2020 - 2021 will be similar to the 2014 - 2015 experience based on iPhone 12 sales. The question is whether the 1Q21 spike will be significantly greater than a year earlier or if Apple revenue has plateaued.

From the graph:

• 4Q14: $40 billion; 1Q15: $75 billion or an increase of 87.5%.
• 4Q20 = $64 billion. 1.875 x $64 = $120 billion.
• 4Q20 = $64 billion. To get to $100 billion, that would be a 56% jump.
  

Folks like me, Tim Cook, and others can rave about record iMac and MacBook revenue, services revenue, and wearables revenue but the fact remains: APPL's share price "depends" on iPhone sales in the December-ending quarter.

Some suggest that iPhone 12 will be the most successful phone since iPhone 6, released in September, 2014. From wiki:

Apple Inc. announced that, within 24 hours of availability, over 4 million pre-orders of the iPhone 6 and 6 Plus were made, exceeding the supply available—an Apple record. 

Ten million iPhone 6 and iPhone 6 Plus devices were sold in the first three days, marking another Apple record. 

Apple iPhone 6S & 6S Plus were introduced in September 2015 selling 13 million units which set the record for sales in the first three days from last years release. 

Three months after its release, the iPhone 6 generated 71.5 million unit sales. 

During their lifetime, the iPhone 6 and iPhone 6 Plus sold a total of more than 220 million, making them the best selling iPhone models and one of the best selling mobile phones of all time. 

The exact total sales of the iPhone 6 are unknown, but it's estimated that roughly 222.4 million units of the iPhone 6 have been sold as of June 2017.

The iPhone SE was released in 2016. I have the iPhone SE and I bet I'm one of many.

Fast forward to September / October, 2020. Apple announces iPhone 12 series -- there will be four versions. Two were released at about the same time as they were announced; due to anticipated demand, the other two versions were delayed until adequate numbers could be put into the supply chain for the anticipated demand. 

The four versions (starting at):

• iPhone 12 ($799) -- 6.1-inch display -- available for ordering at time of announcement
• iPhone 12 Pro ($999) -- 6.1-inch display -- available for ordering at time of announcement
• iPhone 12 Pro Max ($1099) -- 6.7-inch display -- pre-order November 6, 2020 -- note: pre-order, not delivery date or availability
  
• iPhone 12 Mini ($699) -- 5.4-inch display -- pre-order November 6, 2020 -- note: pre-order, not delivery date or availability

Logistics, link here.

Several of Apple's ‌iPhone 12‌ and 12 Pro models sold out within a few hours of launch, and many new orders are now shipping out later in November. 

We can likely expect to see similar constraints for the upcoming iPhone 12 Pro Max and 12 mini, as these devices were held back due to rumored production issues that required Apple to wait to build up enough supply. 

Given the situation with ‌iPhone 12‌ and 12 Pro pre-orders, those planning to purchase a 12 mini or 12 Pro Max should plan to do so right when pre-orders go live on Friday, November 6 at 5:00 a.m. Pacific Time.

Pricing, link here. 

Size matters. I love these "price points." Seriously, even without knowing the difference between the "Pro" and the "Pro Max" wouldn't you spring for the "Pro Max" at only $5 extra per month? I guess it simply comes down to whether you want the 6.1-inch display or the 6.7-inch display. The buzz: folks "loooove" the larger display. 

And "everybody" has a trade-in.

***************************************
iMac

On a completely different note, we now turn our attention to the iMac -- the desktop that was supposed to have died years ago. Link here. 

The desktop iMac comes in two versions, the 21-inch and the 27-inch. The latter is new and the size I've been waiting for, for the past several years.

 The 27-inch comes in three models: $1799; $1999, and $2299. 

The $1999- model appears readily available but the $1799 is a bit delayed and not available at our local Apple store. Meanwhile, the $2299-model is even a bit more delayed than the $1799-model. Recession? What recession?

I bought the $1799 model at Costco last week: it was on sale, $100 off. Costco limited sales to two per customer. No waiting. Same day. Walked in. Walked out. Fifteen minutes tops.

The desktops are being used for telemedicine, distance learning, etc. If your employer is springing for it, buy the $2299-model -- that helps explain the relative supply shortage there.

From social media:  

• Yeh - .... Just ordered 27" iMac - 3-4 weeks delivery. New Zealand.
• My 2020 iMac was supposed to be 3 weeks but arrived after 1 week.  

Most folks can understand "everything" Apple being delayed but not the desktop, but there it is. Delayed by several weeks.  

I have been waiting for the larger iMac for years but a) did not need it; and, b) had no place to put it in our small apartment. But now that we have converted our dining room to a distance-learning room for Sophia, a) we had a reason to get it; and, b) we had a place to put it.  

Spectrum cable is expensive, but all of a sudden we're getting much more value for our buck.

***********************************
Other Items Of Interest

Apple's Form 10-K also revealed the following details:

• As of September 26, 2020, Apple had approximately 147,000 full-time equivalent employees, an increase of 10,000 employees from one year prior.
• Apple spent $18.75 billion on research and development in the 2020 fiscal year, up approximately 16 percent from $16.21 billion in the 2019 fiscal year. Apple said this increase was primarily due to "headcount-related expenses."
• Apple spent $2.95 billion on warranty claims in the 2020 fiscal year, down approximately 23 percent from $3.85 billion in the 2019 fiscal year. [Not said, but probably related to the keyboard.]
  
• Amid mounting scrutiny over its App Store practices, Apple acknowledged that if the commission it collects on certain purchases were to decline, the company's financial results could be "materially adversely affect."
  

Sean Connery RIP

North Dakota Could Reach Herd Immunity Sooner Than The Rest Of The Country -- October 31, 2020

Link here. 

New cases per 100,000: North Dakota running about 2x what is going on in the rest of the country. North Dakota could reach herd immunity before the rest of the nation. It pretty much depends on Medora.

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Pancake Preparation For Sophia

Annual Permits In North Dakota Since 2011; On Pace For Lowest Year Ever -- October 31, 2020

 Permits:

• 2020, October 31: 645 permits; at this pace: day 305 in a leap year (366 days): 774 permits
  
• 2019, projected for the year (as of June 21, 2019) --- 1,523; in fact, actual: 1,397
  
• 2018: 1,466
• 2017: 1,189
• 2016: 818
• 2015: 2,055
• 2014: 3,012
• 2013: 2,671
• 2012: 2,522
• 2011:1,916 

2020: 74 permits in October;

• at that pace: 2.3870977 permits per day
• 2.3870977 x 366 = 873 which would be slightly better than the 818 in 2016

Stories Being Followed -- October 31, 2020

So that I don't forget, these are the stories or data points I'm most interested in now:

• who owns the Permian? The majors or the independents?
• COP -- there appears to be a huge shift in strategy
• what next in the Bakken? 
• monster wells in the Bakken
• the dashboards: Bakken, Eagle Ford, Permian
• the Mideast: in deep doo-doo
• Apple
• Turkey -- separate from the Mideast
• like Fitzgerald said: "within and without"
• investing: the strange case for/of dividends
• cooking for one: heat is heat
• Alaska: killing the golden goose; we will know this week
• ILI surveillance

********************************
Another Apple

I won't be able to find it but I once posted that the drummer is the most important individual in a rock band. First among equals.

Apple -- Nothing About The Bakken -- October 31, 2020

I will come back to this later today. This is a big story. A lot of data points. 

I have to re-test for Covid-19. I wasn't sure I was able to smell my Bloody Mary earlier this morning, but now I'm smelling bacon cooking in the kitchen.

*******************
From 1990

Happy Halloween -- North Dakota Chinese Flu Update -- The Bismarck Tribune -- October 31, 2020

Updates

Later, 3:18 p.m. CDT: a reader was kind enough to send me the link ... see first comment at this post --

Medora... population 112 and potentially about to be decimated, according to this article!

https://www.voanews.com/covid-19-pandemic/mask-resistant-north-dakota-town-battles-pandemic-spike. 

It was such a ridiculous story I had to have at least two readers interested in it before I would post it. LOL.  Fortunately, a second reader was kind enough to oblige. LOL. I just love this blog -- LOL. I never know what I'm going to find on it. This made my day.

Original Post

I didn't post the link, and I won't unless a reader sends to me again, but yesterday, the national media posted a story on the devastating effect Covid-19 is having on Medora, ND. I can't make this stuff up. Don't they close down the city nine months out of the year?

This, too, will pass -- when we reach herd immunity ...

Oh, my goodness, I bet they weren't wearing masks, 

The lede:

The question everyone is asking: is it safe to go swimming?

Link to the Bismarck Tribune. 

The good news: the WHO anticipates zero "seasonal flu" cases this year. That disease appears to have been eradicated. Just like that. 

Tracking "influenza-like-illnesses" in the USA today -- traditionally tracked by the CDC and reported weekly in MMWR will be very, very interesting this year. 

"Influenza-like-illnesses" (ILI) will include both Chinese flu and "seasonal flu" this year. Then, look at this:

Why is the CDC recommending the flu vaccine -- it's only 45% effective, at best -- and "the mask" seems to be the easier, better alternative based on what is being reported by mainstream media and Joe Biden. Just saying.  By they way, speaking of Joe Biden, I haven't seen him getting his "seasonal flu" shot, but I see him every day, with Jill, wearing his mask.

Quick: what virus is being targeted this year for "seasonal flu"? Yes, that's what I thought. 

This will be re-posted later.

Off the net for awhile.

I'm going to go get tested. I feel great but one can't be too careful these days. You know, had this been last year, Trevor Lawrence would have played right through this with his mild symptoms. And no one would have even noticed.

************************************
I'm Back

More graphics.

Is the world going nuts? Is it just me, or ... can you imagine --- using an analogy --- drilling 25,000 oil wells and only ten of them actually produce oil ....

Now, back to that question I asked earlier:

Heaven forbid you get the Yamagata strain. That vaccine won't do you any good. The good news? You are unlikely to get the Colorado strain. Okay to go skiing again. 

Notes From All Over -- The Mideast Edition -- Saturday Morning -- October 31, 2020

Striking graphs this morning. Where do we begin? 

Saudi Arabia's foreign exchange reserves: drop again. I believe this converts to about $453 billion.

From al Khaleej Today:

• Saudi's reserves as reported by al Khaleej Today.
• Saudi reserves of foreign exchange cover imports for 45 months - al Khaleej Today. 
• back in June, 2020, my own calculations showed 43 months; prior to that I had not seen anyone post this data;

US crude oil imports from Saudi Arabia: huge plunge, not since the 1980s have we seen numbers this low. 

From the "milliondollarway" archives:

This might be good time to re-read this interesting story in Foreign Policy, May 5, 2020; still not behind a paywall; the writer of that article: Jason Bordoff, a former senior director on the staff of the US National Security Council and special assistant to President Barack Obama ... I first linked this article in September, 2020. It will be interesting to see how this plays out. 

***************************************
Most Under-Reported International Story: Turkey

Turkish lira hits yet another record low, pushing as 8 lira to the dollar -- CNBC;

• The lira’s value has fallen by nearly 20% year-to-date and halved since the end of 2017. 
• At the start of 2018, a dollar bought just 3.77 lira; now analysts predict that figure will hit 8.5 or even 9. 
• Erdogan has previously defended his economic record and in September called interest rates the “tools of his enemies.” 
• Over the summer he downplayed the lira’s slide, calling it “temporary.” 
•  Erdogan on Monday urged Turks to boycott French goods after the country projected satirical cartoons of the Prophet Muhammad on government buildings in Paris to protest a recent terrorist attack.

Earlier in October, again CNBC: the Turkish lira is getting smoked; will crash to new lows;

• Turkey’s embattled currency hit another record low on Thursday, touching 7.95 to the dollar as it barrels toward an unprecedented 8 lira to the greenback.
• Economic analysts have expressed exasperation for the past several weeks at the policy decisions coming from Ankara, arguing that the currency’s troubles are self-inflicted.   
• For perspective, a dollar bought just 3.77 lira at the start of 2018. Now analysts predict that figure will hit 8.5. 

As if that weren't bad enough, Saudi is now calling for boycott of "everything Turkish." Not yet official policy but one would think political statements coming out of Saudi Arabia are tightly controlled, sanctioned.  

**********************************
The Only Thing Red, Mr Putin, Is Your Ruble

Earlier this month, Vladimir Putin, when asked about the Bakken, simply stated that the color of water in North Dakota was the color of the red wine in the glass he was holding. I have no idea what he meant by that. Lost in translation. 

On the other hand, not lost in translation: the Russian ruble had a painful week, ended the week in the red. I doubt the ruble felt anything at all. Perhaps Russian investors and bankers felt something, but I doubt the ruble actually felt anything. 

********************************
The US Has Its Mayo Clinic, The Mideast Has Hadassah

Link here. The article is there; it may be a bit hard to find initially with the large ad asking for donations, etc., but if you actually stick it out and get to the article, it's very interesting. My hunch: it's only news to those living outside the Mideast. 

***********************************
Geo-Politics

Let's assume Joe Biden wins the presidency. 

I think I read recently that President Trump is the only American president, or maybe the only American president in modern times, that has not gotten the US into another war. 

It sounds accurate to me. 

If accurate, one has to ask why?

Generally, the US gets into a war in reaction to something else. 

To not get into a new war, one might suggest there has been no conflict overseas that grew big enough for attention by the US. 

But think about it. Not one major military operation by this president. No wonder his "past" generals did not support him. [Yes, I saw the political commercials on television. No matter how hard I try to avoid these things they invariably show up, generally during NFL football games.]

But I digress.

One has to ask why there have been no conflicts that grew big enough for attention by the US. Why didn't China and Taiwan become a bigger story? What happened to North Korea? What happened to Syria and Iran? What happened to Yemen? Israel, Palestine?

One answer: the US president is predictably unpredictable. Similar to Ronald Reagan. 

Now, let's assume Joe Biden wins the presidency.

Unlike President Trump, Joe Biden:

• has no overarching geo-political compass, unless it's money;
• will be very, very slow to react to developing situations around the world;
• will become entirely predictable, at least in the eyes of our adversaries;

After surfing through the international news today and imagining Joe Biden as president, the only question I have: will the first military conflict involving a major US response occur in late 2021, or 2022?

The Mideast is a huge powder keg and I think the regimes are waiting for the outcome of the US presidential election before taking their next step. 

*********************************
Let Me Guess

But we end on this note. Something tells me the world won't miss him.

Prince Azim of Brunei dead at age 38. Cause of death unknown. 

Only details we know:

• billionaire
• playboy
• lived at the family's London mansion in Kensington Palace Gardens

My hunch: Jeffrey Epstein was not directly involved.

Notes From All Over -- Happy Halloween Eve -- October 30, 2020

Skywatch: I've never had so  much fun as I've had with the "skywatch" app on my smart phone. The app was free and I love it. According to Geoff Simon:

The moon will be full on Halloween, an event which occurs every 19 years. The first full moon after the Harvest Moon is the Hunter's Moon, so named according to the Farmer's Almanac because with leaves falling, crops harvested and the deer fattened, this was the time to hunt. See more here.

Recipes: Cornish hens? Secret ingredient: smoked paprika. 

Target: while shopping for that secret ingredient tonight at the Target store down the street, I was struck by how empty many of the shelves were. It was quite remarkable to say the least and it's hard to suggest it's not due the recent headline stories about Chinese flu being out of control. Whatever you stocked up during the original surge, you may want to re-inventory where you stand. Just saying. 

Happy Halloween: waiting to pick up Sophia at TutorTime earlier today. The table had been full of decorated pumpkins but folks were now taking them home.

Week 44: October 25, 2020 -- October 31, 2020

Top story of the week:  

• North Dakota leads the nation in new Chinese flu cases per capita. Several posts; here's most recent; setting records;
• Jerry Jeff Walker, RIP: October 23, 2020;
  

Most under-reported story:

• Turkey's economy
  

Top international non-energy story:

• Mideast in deep doo-doo; and, here;
  

Top international energy story:

• The Bakken residing rent-free in Vladimir's brain;

Top national non-energy story:

• 3Q20 GDP forecast at 35%; first reading came in at 33%;
• Newest US Supreme Court justice sworn in on Hillary's birthday;
• Trump gets fifth Nobel Peace Prize nomination; not reported by mainstream media;
• LA Dodgers win World Series;

Top national energy story:

• COP could wave good-bye to Alaska;

Top North Dakota non-energy story:

• New Long X bridge now open; currently two lanes; will eventually be four lanes;

Top North Dakota energy story:
COP getting active in the Bakken; and, here; and, here;

Geoff Simon's top North Dakota energy stories:

• TR Presidential Library Foundation announced $100 million in commitments;
• "Pore space" law evolving;
• Biden victory offers path to shut down DAPL

Operators:

• BR getting very, very active in the Bakken; getting active in the Permian; may "lose" Alaska:
• BR eyeing to double number of wells in a Hawkeye drilling unit;
• MRO continues to report huge wells in the Bakken;
• MRO reports four huge DUCs;
  

Operations:

Fracking:

• MRO with interesting completion strategies; and, here;

Commentary: 

CLR With A New Permit; EOG Renews Four Permits; WPX Reports One DUC As Completed -- And A Partridge In A Pear Tree -- October 30, 2020

Active rigs:

$35.79	10/30/2020	10/30/2019	10/30/2018	10/30/2017	10/30/2016
Active Rigs	14	60	68	52	34

One new permit, #37941:

• Operator: CLR
• Field: Cedar Coulee (Dunn County)
• Comments:
• CLR has a permit for a Bang well in section 32-147-96, 620' FNL and 1050' FEL.
  

Four permits renewed:

• EOG: three Hawkeye permits, all in McKenzie County; and, a Van Hook permit in Mountrail County

One permit canceled:

• MRO: a Wayzetta permit in Mountrail County

One producing well (a DUC) reported as completed:

• 37135, drl/A, WPX, Nokota 24-13-12HX, Squaw Creek, no production data, 
• the Nokota wells are tracked here;
  

Re-Posting: Who Controls The Permian? October 30, 2020

Who controls the Permian? Rigzone. 

There’s been an ongoing pendulum swing between majors and independents as the controlling group of the Permian basin’s destiny for many years, but who controls the region now?

Well, according to a new Wood Mackenzie (Woodmac) editorial from the company’s Americas upstream oil and gas research director Benjamin Shattuck, new deals like the Pioneer and Parsley combination are swinging the pendulum from the majors back to the independents “fast”.

“The combined Pioneer/Parsley entity holds almost a million acres in the heart of the Midland Basin,” Shattuck stated in the editorial, which was posted on Woodmac’s website on Tuesday.

“Pioneer is once again a Permian heavyweight. The combined company will produce more regionally than ConocoPhillips and Concho, more than ExxonMobil, and more than Occidental and Anadarko. Considering the massive spending pullbacks of Chevron and ExxonMobil earlier this year, Permian forecasters need to recalibrate their models back to Pioneer’s plans,” Shattuck added in the editorial.

“Even with a lower reinvestment rate than before the deal and the variable dividend not coming into play until 2022, Pioneer will still grow five percent next year,” Shattuck went on to state.

Having read that, now look at COP.  

**************************************
Superwoman Making Banana Bread

Two hours later:

Train Wreck In Slow Motion -- The Sports Page -- October 30, 2020

Updates

Later, 2:29 p.m.; just hours after posting the original post, Breitbart posted a survey showing that Americans now consider the old "NBA" the new "BLM." Link here: https://www.breitbart.com/sports/2020/10/29/survey-fans-view-nba-overt-political-thing-not-sport/.

Original Post

BLM: BLM braces for record 40% drop in revenue in 2020 - 2021 season. LeBron may sit out first few weeks (months?). ZeroHedge. 

NFL: watching a train crash in slow motion. Ratings plunge 35% this past Sunday; continues the trend in all major sports. 

Link here: https://www.breitbart.com/sports/2020/10/28/ratings-crash-35-for-sunday-night-football-lowest-week-7-number-since-2011/.

I watch sports talk television in the morning -- "Get Up" and "Final Take" -- and "Pardon the Interruption" in the afternoon -- not once have I heard anyone mention this train wreck. In fact, the commentators continue to show support for the movement. 

********************************
Hold My Beer

From a reader:

Fast And Furious -- Fifteen Minutes -- Big Story: It's Coming Down To Saudi Arabia Vs Iraq -- October 30, 2020

Who controls the Permian? Rigzone. 

There’s been an ongoing pendulum swing between majors and independents as the controlling group of the Permian basin’s destiny for many years, but who controls the region now?

Well, according to a new Wood Mackenzie (Woodmac) editorial from the company’s Americas upstream oil and gas research director Benjamin Shattuck, new deals like the Pioneer and Parsley combination are swinging the pendulum from the majors back to the independents “fast”.

“The combined Pioneer/Parsley entity holds almost a million acres in the heart of the Midland Basin,” Shattuck stated in the editorial, which was posted on Woodmac’s website on Tuesday.

“Pioneer is once again a Permian heavyweight. The combined company will produce more regionally than ConocoPhillips and Concho, more than ExxonMobil, and more than Occidental and Anadarko. Considering the massive spending pullbacks of Chevron and ExxonMobil earlier this year, Permian forecasters need to recalibrate their models back to Pioneer’s plans,” Shattuck added in the editorial.

“Even with a lower reinvestment rate than before the deal and the variable dividend not coming into play until 2022, Pioneer will still grow five percent next year,” Shattuck went on to state.

Vietnamese LNG. Will post link from yesterday -- the story continues.

ExxonMobil Hai Phong Energy Pte Ltd (EMPHE), Hai Phong People’s Committee and Japan power generation firm JERA have signed a memorandum of understanding to work together on a potential integrated LNG-to-power project, JERA reported Wednesday.

The MOU promotes preliminary market development discussions among ExxonMobil, Hai Phong city government and JERA for a gas-fired power plant and LNG import terminal in the northeastern Vietnam port city.

“Hai Phong is industrializing at a fast pace, with an annual growth rate of over 20 percent,” remarked Nguyen Van Tung, chairman of the Hai Phong People’s Committee. “Hai Phong City is pleased to collaborate with ExxonMobil and JERA to provide a clean energy resource for Vietnam in Hai Phong City.”

US durable-goods: orders rose for fifth month in September, 2020. Link here.

Orders for long-lasting factory goods increased for the fifth consecutive month in September, 2020, the latest sign manufacturing companies are rebounding from supply-chain disruptions and shutdowns related to the coronavirus pandemic. 

New orders for durable goods—products designed to last at least three years—rose 1.9% in September compared with August, the Commerce Department said Tuesday. 

A closely watched proxy for business investment—new orders for nondefense capital goods excluding aircraft—increased by 1% last month. 

The measure had recovered all of its pandemic-related losses by August, suggesting that businesses have ramped up capacity in anticipation of growing demand. 

“The economic recovery isn’t entirely dependent on consumers, with business-equipment investment recording a swift bounce back to prepandemic levels,” said Paul Ashworth, chief U.S. economist at Capital Economics.

Saudi Arabia in deep doo-doo:

• from al Khaleej Today;
• search results;

Iraq: crumbling economy becomes a threat to OPEC+ production cuts.

Iraq may be the world's third-biggest oil exporter, but its economy is cratering after the coronavirus pandemic sapped global demand for energy and caused prices to collapse. 

The state's finances are so dire it can't pay teachers and civil servants on time, threatening a repeat of the upheaval that last year brought down the government and saw hundreds of protesters killed. 

That's created a dilemma for 46-year-old Abdul Jabbar, a chemical engineer and career oil man who's now caught between the demands of an angry population and the pledges made to allies in OPEC. 

The group of oil producers is trying to bolster a fragile market by reining in supply and it needs major producers like Iraq to toe the line. For Iraq, restraining supply carries a massive economic and political cost. But breaking ranks is risky too: it could mean lower prices for everyone. 

Some Iraqis want the government to put them first by simply pumping more oil, a move that could unravel the finely calibrated output agreement; if a producer as significant as Iraq flouts the pact, there'd be little to stop smaller ones doing the same.

Exxon: to slash up to 15% of global workforce; cuts include 1,900 jobs in US. Link here.  

IHOP: closing nearly 100 "underperforming" locations amid the pandemic. Link here.

Jobless claims, from yesterday, October 29, 2020: pandemic emergency jobless claims soar to record high. Link here.

Apple -- 4Q20 -- Quarter Ending September, 2020

Apple reports 4Q20 results: $12.7 billion on $64.7 billion revenue.

For the quarter, Apple posted revenue of $64.7 billion and net quarterly profit of $12.7 billion, or $0.73 per diluted share, compared to revenue of $64.0 billion and net quarterly profit of $13.7 billion, or $0.76 per diluted share, in the year-ago quarter. Apple set a new record for September quarter revenue, as well as all-time quarterly records for Services and Mac revenue.

Early sales "look good": Tim Cook. 

Apple's services revenue hits new all-time high: $14.5 billion in quarter before the holiday quarter. 

Another all-time record: Apple's wearables, home and accessories revenue -- $7.9 billion. 

Apple can't keep up with demand: working hard on supply constraints -- Tim Cook.

The desktop Mac is dead. Long live the desktop Mac. All-time record. 

ND Back At #1; Followed By The Usual Suspects -- Alaska, #6; IA, #7 -- October 30, 2020

Link here.  Updated early this morning, Halloween eve, 6:40 a.m. North Dakota back in top position. 

Other related news:

• Chinese flu outbreak in Wisconsin pushed college football toward the edge; WSJ link;
• tsunami of empty college dorms risks student housing market implosion; ZeroHedge; 
  
• big tech reaps gains as the Chinese flu pandemic shifts demand; it's all about the on-line experience; WSJ link;
• Starbucks says customers are starting to come back; WSJ link;
  

OPEC Basket Plunges; Another Active Rig In The Bakken; Hess Reports Another Nice Well -- October 30, 2020

OPEC basket, link here: deep doo-doo.

*************************************
Back to the Bakken

Active rigs: CLR adds a third rig.

$35.63	10/30/2020	10/30/2019	10/30/2018	10/30/2017	10/30/2016
Active Rigs	15	60	68	52	34

One well coming off the confidential list today --

Friday, October 30, 2020: 24 for the month; 24 for the quarter, 689 for the year

• 36796, drl/A, Hess, EN-Ruland-LE-156-94-3328H-1, Alkali Creek, t--; cum 92K 9/20;
  

RBN Energy: rising LNG exports from Texas reshape Louisiana gas flows, part 2. Archived.

The natural-gas market disruptions hitting the Texas-Louisiana coast so far in 2020 — a pandemic, the collapse of the LNG export market, a rare hiccup in Permian gas production, and multiple hurricanes —threw a big wrench into market expectations. Everything had been moving along pretty smoothly since mid-2016, when the first of a series of new liquefaction trains came online at Sabine Pass LNG. 

As new LNG export capacity started up at Sabine Pass, Corpus Christi, Cameron, and Freeport, so did relatively steady, predictable growth in feedgas demand. 

Then came this crazy, unforgettable year. Still more liquefaction capacity started up, but LNG export volumes plummeted, mostly due to very weak export economics. Recently, LNG exports have been picking up and, whenever hurricanes stop pounding the Gulf Coast, the U.S. will likely finally experience the full impact of all 9.15 Bcf/d of export capacity operating at full strength, requiring nearly 10 Bcf/d of feedgas across the U.S, almost 9 Bcf/d of which is located in Texas and Louisiana. Gas flow patterns across Louisiana’s dense network of pipelines already are shifting in response to the incremental demand and are signaling increased supply competition along the Gulf Coast this winter. Today, we continue our series discussing the changing flow patterns along the U.S. Gulf Coast, this time providing an overview of the main drivers of those shifts to date, including LNG feedgas demand and Northeast inflows.

Off The Net For The Night -- Listening To Jerry Jeff Walker -- Good Luck To All -- See You In A Few Hours -- October 30, 2020

On YouTube, JJW, one hour and thirty minutes -- "The One and Only." I was watching Bruce Springsteen's "Letter to You" on Apple TV+ earlier this evening. I had to turn it off after about twenty minutes. I couldn't connect (emotionally ... the wi-fi worked fine). His E-Street Band might be called a "super-band" with so many incredible artists backing up Springsteen.

Jerry Jeff Walker: All by himself and a guitar on stage. And the music is incredible for late night / early morning listening. 

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Back to Apple

Link here. 

"....hugely outpacing sales one year earlier." 

Hugely.

COP: Annual Report, 2019 -- Lower 48

Things are getting exciting.  There's a lot on everyone's plate.

Next week we will know if COP will continue to invest in the North Slope, Alaska. Perhaps. See this post.  

Curious.

For COP: the North Slope generated one-fourth of COP's worldwide crude production:

• three legacy fields
• 218K boepd in 2019

How does that compare to the Lower 48?

If I'm reading the graphic correctly, for COP, liquids from the Bakken, averaged:

• 82,000 bbls/day

Compare with:

• Eagle Ford: 174,000
• Permian: 60,000 

I may be reading the graphic incorrectly.  

Concho Resources is producing about 200,000 bopd. Link here.

Of the fourteen or so active rigs in North Dakota, two of them are operated by BR. And that's all that BR needs to maintain production at current levels there. 

COP very recently announced that it was maintaining its dividend (actually increasing it by one penny). Link here for dividend history. 

Disclaimer: this is not an investment site.  Do not make any investment, financial, job, career, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here. 

Earnings report for COP round-up:

• first announcement: EPS in-line; misses on revenue;
• SeekingAlpha: share price slides on 3Q20 loss on lower oil volumes, prices;

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Pancake Thursday

Closer Look At BR's 2020 Permits In Section 6-149-96, Pershing Oil Field -- October 29, 2020

Burlington Resources, subsidiary of COP:

• 2020, through October 28, 2020: BR with 92 new permits in North Dakota;
• CY2019: BR with 91 oil and gas permits in North Dakota
  
• of those 92 new permits, 29 were in Pershing oil field, most of them in the past few weeks;
• twelve of them will be sited in section 6-149-96:

Daily Activity Report	NDIC Permit/File	BR	Name of Well	Oil Field	S	T	R
July 29, 2020	37750	BR	Kirklandfill 1C	Pershing	21	150	96
July 29, 2020	37751	BR	Kirklandfill 1B	Pershing	21	150	96
July 29, 2020	37752	BR	Kirklandfill 1A	Pershing	21	150	96
July 29, 2020	37753	BR	Morganfill 1C	Pershing	21	150	96
July 29, 2020	37754	BR	Morganfill 1B	Pershing	21	150	96
July 29, 2020	37755	BR	Morganfill 1A	Pershing	16	150	96
October 5, 2020	37878	BR	Rink 1-1-5MBH	Pershing	32	150	96
October 5, 2020	37879	BR	Kermit 1-8-32MBH	Pershing	32	150	96
October 5, 2020	37880	BR	Rink 2-1-5UTFH	Pershing	32	150	96
October 5, 2020	37881	BR	Kermit 1-8-32UTFH	Pershing	32	150	96
October 23, 2020	37921	BR	Parrish 2B TFH	Pershing	6	149	96
October 23, 2020	37922	BR	Boxstone 1A TFH-ULW	Pershing	6	149	96
October 23, 2020	37923	BR	Boxstone B MBH-ULW	Pershing	6	149	96
October 23, 2020	37924	BR	Boxer 2A TFH	Pershing	6	149	96
October 27, 2020	37926	BR	Boxer 2C TFH	Pershing	6	149	96
October 27, 2020	37927	BR	Parrish 2C MBH	Pershing	6	149	96
October 27, 2020	37928	BR	Boxer 2B MBH	Pershing	6	149	96
October 27, 2020	37929	BR	Parrish 3A TFH	Pershing	6	149	96
October 29, 2020	37931	BR	Parrish 3B MBH	Pershing	6	149	96
October 29, 2020	37932	BR	Parrish 3C TFH	Pershing	6	149	96
October 29, 2020	37933	BR	Parrish 4A MBH	Pershing	6	149	96
October 29, 2020	37934	BR	Boxer 3A TFH	Pershing	6	149	96
October 29, 2020	37935	BR	Boxer 3B MBH	Pershing	6	149	96
October 29, 2020	37936	BR	Boxer 3C TFH	Pershing	6	149	96
October 29, 2020	37937	BR	Parrish 4B MBH	Pershing	6	149	96
October 29, 2020	37938	BR	Parrish 4C TFH	Pershing	6	149	96
October 29, 2020	37939	BR	Boxer 4A MBH	Pershing	6	149	96
October 29, 2020	37940	BR	Boxer 4B TFH	Pershing	6	149	96

Graphic, section 6-149-96: 

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Happy Halloween

From Sophia's "TutorTime," Colleyville, TX.