WTI Will Test $37 Floor; OPEC Basket Closes Below $40 -- Two New Permits -- October 2, 2020

Later: at two hours post-tweet, 353K well-wishers clicked in. He has 87 million followers.

Later: 

"Get some rest, president!" -- still not taking doctor's advice. LOL.

For the archives: President Trump admitted to Walter Reed Medical Center earlier today; initial reports, "precautionary." Less than twelve hours later, White House officials said to be "concerned." President febrile and fatigued; on experimental drug regimen; does not include hydroxychloroquine. Not sure if president is in ICU, but he's being treated as if in ICU. Next thing to watch for: intubation (for "precautionary purposes") if he becomes overly fatigued. Posted 9:55 p.m. ET. One hour ago (about 9:00 p.m. ET) said to be "short of breath." For me that's a "head's up" that the president will be intubated before morning. Posted 10:05 p.m. ET. Spokesman: President Trump resting comfortably; no supplemental oxygen. Posted 12:20 a.m. ET. early Saturday morning;

Posted at 12:21 a.m. ET, truly remarkable. Late Friday night / early Saturday morning. To go from working in his office to being taken to Walter Reed to be said to be febrile and short of breath all in less than 12 hours and then all of a sudden resting comfortable on no supplemental oxygen. Remarkable. Anyway, we move on.

OPEC: Iraq says it won't abide by OPEC quotas. 

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Back to the Bakken

Active rigs:

$37.05	10/2/2020	10/02/2019	10/02/2018	10/02/2017	10/02/2016
Active Rigs	11	59	65	57	33

Two new permits:

• Operator: BR
• Field: Little Knife (Dunn County)
• Comments:
• BR has permits for a Manchester well and a Concord well both in SWSW 10-147-97, 442' FSL and 275' - 365' FWL

Four permits canceled:

• EOG: four Wayzetta permits in Mountrail County

XTO Charlson Well Trending Toward One Million Bbls -- Still No Pump -- October 2, 2020

The well:

• 17113, 3,030, XTO/Denbury, Charlson 14X-35H, Charlson, t10/08; cum 855K 8/20; F; subtle jump in production; recent production:
  

Pool	Date	Days	BBLS Oil	Runs	BBLS Water	MCF Prod	MCF Sold	Vent/Flare
BAKKEN	8-2020	31	4177	4030	130	5604	5370	0
BAKKEN	7-2020	31	4206	4284	115	5644	5410	0
BAKKEN	6-2020	30	4098	3824	137	5584	5357	0
BAKKEN	5-2020	31	4269	4582	182	5742	5515	0
BAKKEN	4-2020	30	4121	4175	220	5338	5111	0
BAKKEN	3-2020	31	4259	4045	220	5245	4839	73
BAKKEN	2-2020	29	4170	4243	265	5233	4221	701
BAKKEN	1-2020	31	4466	4213	282	5512	62	5121
BAKKEN	12-2019	27	2640	2599	215	3255	46	2948
BAKKEN	11-2019	29	2243	2521	186	2766	0	2455
BAKKEN	10-2019	31	3595	3700	394	4410	1955	2129
BAKKEN	9-2019	30	3510	3190	511	4331	2693	1411
BAKKEN	8-2019	24	2488	2063	707	3074	1805	1116
BAKKEN	7-2019	18	1662	1972	413	2068	881	1073
BAKKEN	6-2019	21	1428	1374	33	1888	1736	0
BAKKEN	5-2019	31	2605	2996	52	3204	2593	377

Whiting's Million-Bbl Behr Well, Drilled Back In 2008, Stronger Than Ever -- October 2, 2020

 Well, not stronger than ever, literally, but considering its age, incredibly strong.

The well:

• 17092, 3,027, Whiting, Behr 11-34H, Sanish; s4/08; produced 500,725 bbls in 591 days; inactive Jan/Feb 2015; now back on status 3/15; cum 1.114626 million bbls 8/20; off line as of 7/19; remains off line 1/20; back on line 3/20;

Recent production:

Pool	Date	Days	BBLS Oil	Runs	BBLS Water	MCF Prod	MCF Sold	Vent/Flare
BAKKEN	8-2020	31	2105	1996	154	8500	8182	225
BAKKEN	7-2020	31	2157	2168	229	9306	8970	243
BAKKEN	6-2020	30	1947	1931	268	8526	8436	0
BAKKEN	5-2020	31	1958	1953	423	9080	8987	0
BAKKEN	4-2020	30	1775	1941	715	8376	8286	0
BAKKEN	3-2020	20	607	377	1023	3402	3343	0
BAKKEN	2-2020	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	1-2020	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	12-2019	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	11-2019	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	10-2019	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	9-2019	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	8-2019	0	0	7	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	7-2019	6	189	191	31	1577	1558	2
BAKKEN	6-2019	28	903	963	164	7833	6421	1333
BAKKEN	5-2019	31	1672	1642	127	11207	10803	311
BAKKEN	4-2019	29	1090	1086	86	8599	8367	147
BAKKEN	3-2019	31	1632	1680	136	11556	11076	387
BAKKEN	2-2019	28	1511	1527	95	10214	9394	736

CLR's Anna Wells In Last Chance Oil Field Trending Toward Pre-Covid Production Levels -- Oct 2, 2020

Link here.

*******************************
Morning Television

Double Dynamite on TCM: Frank Sinatra and Groucho Marx. Actually a pretty good movie. Groucho Marx is very, very good, unlike the slapstick I'm usually used to seeing involving the Marx brothers. 

And it's very clear that Alan Alda channeled Groucho Marx in MASH. First time I noticed this.

DIsney Bankruptcy? Can't Imagine It --- But, It's Been A Strange Year -- October 2, 2020

From google today:

Disneyland, back of the envelope

• a normal day: 65,000 visitors / day
• tickets: average $100/visitor/day
• money spent inside park: $50/visitor/day
• 65000 * 150 = $10 million / day at Disneyland being lost

Without theme parks, is Disney simply a television / movie company?

******************************
Cognitive Dissonance

 

ICYMI: October 2, 2020

First things first: Clayton Kershaw, LA Dodgers, last night. Awesome. I may return to watching BLM sports. LOL. Three-game series for the wild card baseball games: best decision. Ever. 

• BLM: wow. Those folks that said the Miami Heat could take on the LA Lakers. LOL. Not even in the same league!

AAPL: to report 4Q20 earnings October 29, 2020.

App Store: Apple App store reportedly earned twice as much as the Google Play Store in 3Q20. Link here.

$29.3 billion was spent overall on Apple's App Store and Google's Play Store, with over 35.6 billion app installs, in the third quarter of 2020 

App stores have seen significant year-on-year growth, with customers spending 32 percent more than at the same time in 2019, with 23.3 percent more installs. Large growth compared to 2019.

Being driven by remote learning, working from home.

Comment: I've bought annual subscriptions to piano teaching app ($129/year or something like that, maybe just $79/year -- I forget -- for Sophia; at her age beats hiring a private piano teacher); also bought Duolingo for $89/year, I believe -- incredible. Sophia loves it. In addition to all that, she must have two dozen school-approved / school-required apps on her iPad.

By the way, what else does this mean? Folks are going to have to upgrade to new iPads for additional memory, perhaps new operating systems to run the new apps.

Difficult Days Await Saudi Citizens -- Middle East Monitor -- October 2, 2020

Link here. Data points:

• so far
• deflation, increased unemployment, expanding poverty rates, growing deficit, 
• significant decline in general revenues, foreign exchange reserves, and public reserves
• stagnation in the markets, paralysis in vital activities
• expatriate workers fleeign
• sharp decline in the profits of banks and major compaies
• salaries being paid late
• the worse may yet be coming 
• increase in the cost of living
• rise in the prices of basic commodities, including gasoline and diesel
• the cost of water, electricity, public transport, telephone bills have magnified
• taxes have risen, especially VAT
• previously unknown to the kingdom, income taxes may follow
• government may have to accelerate its privatization policy: sale of companies and vital facilities to the private sector: schools, hospitals, pharmacies
• may need to sell all flour mills, desalination companies, electricity production, and 27 airports
• unemployment data
• the rate increased to 15.4% 2Q20, compared to 11.8% 1Q20
• rise of unemployment occurred despite 2.5 million expatriate workers fleeing the kingdom since 2017
• 1.2 million more expected to flee this year (2020)
• major companies have stopped paying salaries
• value of oil exports fell almost 50% in July, 2020
• surplus in foreign trade balance fell by 65% from January 1, 2020, through July, 2020
• the cessation of the Hajj and the Umrah will greatly impact Saudi economy

Article fails to mention that Saudi support of terrorist organizations has already fallen significantly.

Holy Hãagen-Dazs, Batman -- A Cold Stone Creamery Store Opens In Williston; Williston Named North Dakota City Of The Year -- October 2, 2020

*************************************
Corona-19: Williams County

Link here. 

MRO's Pads In The Bakken

Locator: 10001MRO.

The "Betty Shobe" pad: A-J-2K-S.   

The "Copeland USA" pad: C-E-2H-O. 

The "Christoph USA" pad: C-P-S-W.

Thh Daniel Play: Antelope-Sanish, section 35-152-94;

The "Doll USA" pad.

The "Doris USA" pad: B-D-E-F. 

The "Doven" pad: D-S-T.

The "Eager-Waldorf USA" pad.

The "Jones - Clara" pad. 

The "Klovstad" pad: K-R-W. This pad is clearly on the fringe of the Bakken. It will be interesting if this measures up to other pads in the Bailey oil field. 

The Little Owl pad: L-M-2P-O. Starting to report 7/21.

The "Marion USA" pad. 

The "Monson USA" pad: A-C-I-K-L-M-R.

The "Papa George USA" pad.

The "Quale" pad.

The "Saint Pierre USA" pad: A-B-C-R-2S. Initial drilling noted in 11/20. 

The "Stillwell USA" pad: DC2-K-L-S.

The "Thorson USA" pad:  L-O-T-V. 

The "Treasure-Shell" pad: A-C-E-J-S-T.

The "Veronica USA" pad: 2B-D-L-R-T-V.

The "Waltom USA" pad: P-R-S-4W.

The "Winona USA" pad.

MRO's A-C-I-K-L-M-R Pad In Reunion Bay

First, the graphics:

The wells:

• 37732, loc, MRO, Carl USA12-26TFH, Antelope,
  
• 37733, loc (ROS - Oct 2, 2020), MRO, Kaye USA12-26H, Antelope,
• 37734, ros, MRO, Larry USA 13-26TFH,
  
• 37735, loc, MRO, Amsler USA 13-26H, Antelope,
• 37736, loc, MRO, Iverson USA 14-26TFH, Antelope,
• 37737, loc, MRO, Redetzke USA 14-26H, Antelope,
• 37738, loc, MRO, Monson USA 14-26TFH, Antelope,

Notes From All Over -- October 2, 2020

AAPL: to report 4Q20 earnings October 29, 2020.

App Store: Apple App store reportedly earned twice as much as the Google Play Store in 3Q20. Link here.

$29.3 billion was spent overall on Apple's App Store and Google's Play Store, with over 35.6 billion app installs, in the third quarter of 2020 

App stores have seen significant year-on-year growth, with customers spending 32 percent more than at the same time in 2019, with 23.3 percent more installs. Large growth compared to 2019.

Being driven by remote learning, working from home.

Comment: I've bought annual subscriptions to piano teaching app ($129/year or something like that, maybe just $79/year -- I forget -- for Sophia; at her age beats hiring a private piano teacher); also bought Duolingo for $89/year, I believe -- incredible. Sophia loves it. In addition to all that, she must have two dozen school-approved / school-required apps on her iPad.

By the way, what else does this mean? Folks are going to have to upgrade to new iPads for additional memory, perhaps new operating systems to run the new apps.

The car wars: GM, Ford, and Tesla. Two of the three look to be contracting significantly globally. Does Ford become a niche player int the automotive world? South Korea, Japan surging. Is China automotive something to watch? Will Tesla implode (on the down side) or explode (on the up side)? Tesla is impossible to read. Cons: the elephant in the room -- too much competition. Pros: everything else. From the linked article:
 

Stock performance: Ford shares are down 52% over the last five years and over 40% in the last 10 years. Shares are down 25% in 2020. Ford has a market capitalization of $28 billion.

General Motors stock is trading flat over the last five years and down 7% over the last 10 years. Shares are down 13% in 2020. General Motors has a market capitalization of $44 billion.

Tesla shares are up 645% in the last five years and up 913% in the last ten. Shares are up 428% in 2020. Tesla has a market capitalization of $411 billion.

What's next?  Ford will be led by a new CEO soon as Jim Hackett, who has led Ford since 2017, will step down. Jim Farley, currently Ford's COO, will become the new CEO on Oct. 1.

The company’s new Mustang Mach-E, F-150 and Bronco make for one of the company’s strongest vehicle lineups going forward.

Black Friday -- October 2, 2020

Black Friday. Hang on, it's gonna be a bumpy ride.

OPEC Basket, WTI Plunge -- At Least That's How Many Will Report It; WTI Drops Below $37 -- October 2, 2020

Well, that was easy: top story of the week. President Trump and wife test positive for Chinese flu. For the archives. Tea leaves: no more presidential debates. That was it. Had the first debate received overwhelmingly positive reviews, there would be a chance there would be one last debate prior to the election, but the reviews suggest Americans have seen enough, don't need another debate. So, we'll call it (the one and only debate) good, and move on.

OPEC basket, link here: wow, huge drop. Falls below $40. OSP at $39.94.

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Back to the Bakken

Active rigs:

$36.99	10/2/2020	10/02/2019	10/02/2018	10/02/2017	10/02/2016
Active Rigs	11	59	65	57	33

Two wells coming off the confidential list:

Friday, October 2, 2020: 2 for the month; 2 for the quarter, 667 for the year

• 37078, drl/A, Whiting, Oddie 44-7HU, Sanish, no production data,
• 36927, drl/A, Kraken, Black Federal 33-28 7H,33-053-09202, Antelope-Sanish, t--; cum 259K 7/20; a 68K well; see this post;
  

RBN Energy: summer gasoline, winter gasoline, and Reid vapor pressure. Archived here.

If you’ve filled up the tank in your car, SUV, or pickup in the past few days, you probably bought your first batch of winter-blend gasoline since the spring. It’s unlikely that you noticed a difference — only a refining geek with a nose for this sort of thing would — but winter gasoline has a higher Reid Vapor Pressure than summer gasoline, and therefore evaporates more quickly and emits more fumes. There’s a logic to EPA’s mandated switchover from lower-RVP gasoline to higher-RVP gasoline each September, and their switch back to lower-RVP each April/May. For one thing, using different gasoline blends during the colder and warmer months helps ensure that your engine runs well year-round; for another, reducing gasoline vapor pressure in the summer reduces emissions that contribute to smog. Today, we discuss gasoline RVP, why it matters, and how refineries ramp it up and down. (A hint is in the blog’s title.)