Update On Ths Oasis Johnsrud Wells -- January 8, 2017

I track the Oasis Johnsrud wells here. Recently they have been coming off the confidential list, with two more due to report Monday.

There are about twelve "new" Johnsrud wells, fracked in the past year.

This is the production profile of the "original" Johnsrud well. Neighboring wells were fracked around 6/16; note oil production, water production, and natural gas production after 6/16:

• 22202, 2,104, Oasis Johnsrud 19-18H, 28 stages, 3.3 million lbs, t5/12; cum 220K 11/16; off-line most of 7/15; MCF of 12,000 MCF = 2,000 boe; add that to the 6,089 bbls bo in 8/16;

Pool	Date	Days	BBLS Oil	Runs	BBLS Water	MCF Prod	MCF Sold	Vent/Flare
BAKKEN	11-2016	27	4431	4111	3920	10608	9275	1063
BAKKEN	10-2016	30	5566	5439	6035	12165	10441	1724
BAKKEN	9-2016	20	2029	2427	3385	2470	2270	0
BAKKEN	8-2016	31	6089	6129	13217	12016	11235	471
BAKKEN	7-2016	29	2054	1530	9034	3930	3640	0
NEIGHBORS	6-2016	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
FRACKED	5-2016	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	4-2016	1	9	255	0	33	0	23
BAKKEN	3-2016	31	2846	2923	1270	5559	5249	0
BAKKEN	2-2016	19	839	509	430	1274	1084	0
BAKKEN	1-2016	30	1610	2092	725	4155	3500	355
BAKKEN	12-2015	31	2088	1782	710	4487	4056	121
BAKKEN	11-2015	30	2043	2383	815	4386	1822	2264
BAKKEN	10-2015	31	2074	2347	900	4072	2155	1607
BAKKEN	9-2015	30	2149	1691	748	5417	5117	0
BAKKEN	8-2015	31	2251	2095	717	5502	5192	0
BAKKEN	7-2015	31	2181	2294	1050	4672	936	3426

Peak Oil? What Peak Oil? Global Warming? What Global Warming? -- January 8, 2017

North Dakota's oil revenue forecast decreases by $1 billion. From oilprice.com:

• new revenue forecast: $1.1 billion less than former governor's 
• keeps oil production levels flat from the last forecast
• former governor's forecast: $4.81 billion
• new forecast: $3.68 billion
• House leadership kills proposal to increase production and extraction taxes (whew! -- North Dakota already considered a high-oil-tax state)
• lowers oil price mode to $48 from $51 - $53

 ********************************

What Global Warming?

From Weather.com: Snow and Ice Covered the Ground in 49 of 50 States This Weekend.

• only Florida had no snow or ice on the ground Saturday into early Sunday morning
• 66% of the lower 48 states was covered by snow or ice as of this morning
• highest coverage so far this winter season in the US
• it was the National Weather Service office in Amarillo, TX, that pointed this out in a tweet earlier (yesterday, late Saturday)

Not just the US either; across Europe, from Moscow to Istanbul.

Bone-freezing cold, heavy snowstorms, and floods have been plaguing the European continent this week, causing power outages, traffic jams, cancelled flights, and even a stream of plastic eggs with toys washing up on a German island. 

On Saturday, heavy precipitation paralyzed Istanbul, Turkey. Around 6,000 passengers found themselves stranded as hundreds of flights to and from the city's main Ataturk Airport were cancelled due to the snowstorm.

The Bosphorus Strait was closed to ships due to poor visibility, cutting off the Black Sea and the Caspian Sea from the Mediterranean.

Many drivers abandoned their cars and walked rather than waiting for streets to be cleaned. Istanbul’s metro system operated throughout the night to deal with a sudden passenger spike.

See global temperatures, 2500 BC to 2040 AD.

************************
The NFL Page

Most of the wild care games (all four of them) were less than exciting this weekend, but I think the Seattle Hawks game was better than average, and if you like the Green Bay Packers, they had an outstanding game today, easily beating the New York Giants.

The Green Bay Packers will now play "a" divisional game against the Dallas Cowboys next week. Can hardly wait.

**************************************

The Political Page

How Trump won. The Wall Street Journal. If you hit a paywall, begin with this:

Robert Mercer, a computer programmer and hedge-fund manager who distrusted the political establishment and loathed Bill and Hillary Clinton, issued a warning: Data he had seen indicated mainstream Republicans such as Jeb Bush and Marco Rubio would have difficulty winning the White House in 2016, according to one of the attendees. He said only a true outsider with a sense of voters’ frustrations could win.

*********************************
The 20-Song Countdown

Wow, we almost forgot, #8 in the 20-song countdown:

It's Closing Time, Leonard Cohen

Fiat Chrysler Announcement: $1 Billion Investment; 2,000 New Jobs -- January 8, 2017

It looks like Mexico is going to keep losing US dollars/investments if it doesn't work with PEOTUS on immigration issues and the "wall." If Obama had his war on coal, it clearly appears that Trump has his war on Mexico.

Not even sworn in as president yet. From FoxNews.com:

• FiatChrysler will spend $1 billion in US manufacturing
• will modernize plants in Michigan and Ohio
• will add 2,000 new jobs
• the plant in Warren, MI, will be modernized to produce a pickup truck currently built in Mexico
• the new Jeep Wagoneer 
• the Grand Wagoneer large SUVs
• a Toledo, OH, plant will get new equipment to make new Jeep pickup

More specifics here:

• Fiat Chrysler will add three new Jeeps to its lineup
• including a pickup
• also, the new Jeep Wagoneer; and,
• the new Grand Wagoner
• all large SUVs 

CNBC, tomorrow, will repeat the meme: these "onesies and twosies" don't mean a thing; Trump needs policy changes to bring on millions of jobs, not hundreds of jobs at any one time.

Okay, so how about this: a huge US Navy ship modernization program? Yup, it's going to be huge, and New England is going to love it. This is being reported everywhere, but the link to NavyTimes seems most appropriate:

• Donald Trump has pledged the biggest US Navy build-up since the Reagan administration
• it will cost less than Obama's stimulus program
• it will cost less than ObamaCare
• today's US Navy battle force: 272 ships
• US Navy wants about 305 ships
• Trump wants to build a 350-ship fleet that Republican defense hawks have long wanted
• would restore US Navy to a size it hasn't seen since 1998
• options:
• $10 billion Ford-class carriers
• $3 billion Virginia-class attack submarines (which already includes the USS North Dakota); see below
• $500 million littoral (brown water) combat ships

From the article:

To get there the Navy would need to start building three Virginia-class attack submarines per year and continue to pump out LCS and its follow-on frigates starting in 2019 to do low-end missions. The submarine build-up would need to continue even as the nation begins on the next-generation of ballistic missile submarines, which are estimated to cost at least $5 billion per hull.

The Navy, he said, could also accelerate the production of the aircraft carriers to get the fleet up to 12 by the 2030s. That buildup would get the Navy from an end strength of about 330,000 sailors today to more than 380,000 in Trump’s Navy. 

As I've said before, Donald Trump does not think small. He will let the New England and Mid-Atlantic state senators from Virginia, Connecticut, Rhode Island, Massachusetts, New Hampshire, and Maine try to talk him out of this.

Human Interest Story: Keenan, Apache, Alpine High Oil Field -- January 8, 2017

August 22, 2022: see update here.

Data points from the Alpine High article below:

• oil: 3 billion bbls in Alpine High vs 5.2 billion bbls in Eagle Ford
• 75 trillion cubic feet of gas; 3 billion bbls of oil
• = 15 billion boe
• EOG leased more than 600,000 acres in Eagle Ford for "hundreds of dollars/acre"; later Eagle Ford acreage valued / sold at $35,000 / acre
• 350,000 acres in southern Reeves County
• Apache leased for average $1,300/acre (Permian now goes for $30,000 / acre)
• "discovery well" in Alpine High: Spanish Trail 55 1H
• November, 2015
• off County Road 318, just outside Balmorhea
• 10,767 feet down, 4,326 feet horizontal (almost identical to a middle Bakken short lateral
• "embedded" in clay? clay does not fracture well
• two years to study how to recover oil
• no infrastructure in the area yet 

Staggering global riches of natural gas (the numbers keep increasing). From an earlier post:

Top five countries:

• Russia: 6,000 trillion cubic feet
• Iran: 1,000 trillion cubic feet
• Qatar: 900 trillion cubic feet
• Turkmenistan: 600 trillion cubic feet
• US: 350 trillion cubic feet
• #11: Australia: 152 trillion cubic feet (as of January, 2014). (See this post.)
  

Now, let's go back and re-run the numbers that were posted earlier:

• that recent huge Mediterranean natural gas find: 30 trillion cubic feet; this was said to be biggest natural gas find ever in the Mediterranean
• Barnett, revised USGS figures: 53 trillion cubic feet
• Utica, newly revised figures: 782 trillion cubic feet
• Marcellus, EIA revised estimates: 65 trillion cubic feet, "proved" reserves
• Bakken/Three Forks, USGS estimate: 7 trillion cubic feet
• Qatar: 800 trillion cubic feet, wiki, conversion

Other recent stories on natural gas reserves

• Marcellus: 480 trillion cubic feet of technically recoverable gas, Penn State geoscientist 

Comments regarding natural gas reserves

• for me, it's hard enough getting my hands around billions of bbls of oil; it's almost impossible for me to get a feel for trillions of cubic feet of natural gas
• proved reserves are based on price of recovery, confusing matters from year to year
• estimates are just that, estimates (and often inflated for "certain" reasons)
• watch for this gotcha: sometimes reported in trillion cubic feet; sometimes in trillion cubic meters (35 cubic feet = 1 cubic meter; not trivial)
• for me it comes down to two things:
• any discovery over 30 trillion cubic feet natural gas is staggering, worth reporting
• "we" aren't going to run out of natural gas any time soon

Original Post

Very, very interesting human interest story sent to me by a reader. I received it some time ago (December 30, 2016) but delayed in getting it posted, sorry.

This is the story of how a retired geologist discovered one of the biggest oil finds in the continental US this past decade: the Alpine High oil field.

[Steve] Keenan [retired geologist] and [Roberto] Alaniz [chief geologist] became intrigued by a section along a southern strip of Reeves County. The rest of the industry didn't think much of it. More than 100 wells had failed before Apache arrived, drilled by storied explorers like Oklahoma's Chesapeake Energy and Houston's Petrohawk Energy.

Petrohawk once owned half the oil rights in the area, said Floyd Wilson, the company's former CEO and current chief executive of Halcon Resources, another Houston oil company. But it didn't know quite what it had. "We didn't even have a clue those plays were there," Wilson said.

Oil companies largely avoided southern Reeves County. Most believed rock in that part of the Delaware was too deep and too hot to hold oil. In addition, as seas filled the basin millions of years ago, they deposited clay, which doesn't fracture well to let out oil and gas.

More:

Apache hired Keenan in April 2014, and Keenan opened a San Antonio office. Colleagues from EOG, including geologist Sara Reilly, 37, soon joined him. "I wanted to work for Steve again," she said.

Keenan's team started slowly, helping to improve existing wells and prospects, and operating other wells in the western half of West Texas' Permian Basin, called the Delaware. Keenan and chief geologist Roberto Alaniz, 67, a long-time colleague, had never worked in the Permian. But they liked the Delaware, with its deep underground basin that trapped organic material - the building blocks of oil - as seas rose and fell millions of years ago.

More:

In November 2015, the state approved the drilling of Spanish Trail, off County Road 318 on the edge of a lake outside the sleepy town of Balmorhea. Apache broke ground in January, drilling 10,767 feet below the surface, then turning 4,326 feet horizontally, according to state records..

One night a month later, a field report arrived in the inbox of Tim Samson, a 34-year-old geologist. Samson looked, then looked again. Spanish Trail had hit clear, sweet crude in a reservoir 2,000 feet thick more than a mile below the surface. .

Apache found something else there, too - something Keenan won't talk about, for fear of revealing the secret of Alpine High. But, whatever it was, it told him every well in the play would strike oil.

Much, much more at the link.

The big takeaway for me: there's a lot more to all these plays, including the Bakken, that we don't yet know about.

And the coolest thing: I had already placed "Alpine High - Apache" at the sidebar at the right. 

Oasis To Report Two Nice Wells Monday -- January 8, 2017

Active rigs:

	1/8/2017	01/08/2016	01/08/2015	01/08/2014	01/08/2013
Active Rigs	39	58	165	193	181

Wells coming off confidential list over the weekend, Monday:

Monday, January 9, 2017

• 31336, 747, Oasis, Johnsrud 5198 14-18 13T, Siverston, Three Forks first bench; 36 stages, 4 million lbs, t7/16 cum 89K 11/16;
• 32618, SWD, Petro Harvester, Sorum SWD 1, Flaxton, looks like an oil & gas permit changed to a SWD well; it's been my experience that SWD wells had permit designations beginning with a "9", for example: 9XXXX.

Sunday, January 8, 2017

• None

Saturday, January 7, 2017

• 31337, 1,179, Oasis, Johnsrud 5198 14-18 12B, Siverston, t7/16; cum 126K 11/16;
• 29556, drl, Statoil, Patent Gate 7-6 3H, Sakakawea,

************************************

31337, see above, Oasis, Johnsrud 5198 14-18 12B, Siverston:

Date	Oil Runs	MCF Sold
11-2016	16047	33864
10-2016	26634	44346
9-2016	25281	16490
8-2016	30270	43600
7-2016	27769	37301

31336, see above, Oasis, Johnsrud 5198 14-18 13T, Siverston:

Date	Oil Runs	MCF Sold
11-2016	15842	25820
10-2016	21812	44707
9-2016	25736	26628
8-2016	17969	20784
7-2016	7265	4560

Random Look At QEP Wells in Grail Oil Field -- January 8, 2017

This is the second of two or three posts regarding the wells in the graphic below. The first post is here.

Today, I'm going to post the production profiles for two Three Forks wells on the west (left) side of the graphic.

These two wells are both Three Forks first bench wells, running in opposite directions. Although the north-running horizontal ends a bit closer to the site of the south-running well, the horizontals are about 1,000 feet apart. 

First, the more recently drilled/completed well, running south from the 3-well pad. Note the typical "Bakken decline curve and now interruption in production (except shortly after the well was complete). Also note the huge amount of proppant used, almost 10 million lbs. According to FracFocus, this well was fracked 2/22 - 25/2015:

• 28689, API: 33-053-06035, 2,712, QEP, State 3-16-21TFH, 39 stages, 9.4 million lbs, t3/15; cum 307K 11/16:

Pool	Date	Days	BBLS Oil	Runs	BBLS Water	MCF Prod	MCF Sold	Vent/Flare
BAKKEN	11-2016	28	2675	2648	818	3624	3612	12
BAKKEN	10-2016	14	1948	2018	818	5997	5683	314
BAKKEN	9-2016	30	5592	5668	1738	18053	16410	1643
BAKKEN	8-2016	31	6289	6288	2085	21972	21160	812
BAKKEN	7-2016	31	7416	7434	2453	27617	26200	1415
BAKKEN	6-2016	30	8176	8161	2705	31536	29785	1751
BAKKEN	5-2016	31	9773	9721	2846	35974	35221	753
BAKKEN	4-2016	27	9208	9189	2822	31692	30756	853
BAKKEN	3-2016	31	13280	13244	3174	41200	38895	2147
BAKKEN	2-2016	26	10796	10911	2525	22275	20707	1440
BAKKEN	1-2016	29	19055	19397	4149	27920	26525	1249
BAKKEN	12-2015	20	12942	12485	1797	16987	15552	1402
BAKKEN	11-2015	27	14698	14712	4334	36066	31389	4677
BAKKEN	10-2015	31	16704	16822	5651	40244	28654	11590
BAKKEN	9-2015	21	14068	13940	3302	24189	16815	7292
BAKKEN	8-2015	29	19707	19830	6969	30349	29058	1124
BAKKEN	7-2015	31	29961	30019	3818	40734	28527	12019
BAKKEN	6-2015	30	33274	33055	7295	42991	29644	13190
BAKKEN	5-2015	6	6861	7216	1416	8658	8048	557
BAKKEN	4-2015	30	35944	36258	11638	43589	37855	5459
BAKKEN	3-2015	31	28986	28192	8896	33430	29806	3419

 *********************

Now, the production profile for the Three Forks well sited in the section to the south (site not shown in the graphic above), with the horizontal running north, parallel to the horizontal noted above, and ending in section 16 where the above well is sited:

In those earlier posts, I did not post data regarding this well running from the south, the singleton:

• 21564,  2,288, QEP, Levang Federal 14-21/16H, Blue Buttes (sic), 30 stages, 3.5 million lbs, t8/12; cum 587K 11/16;

This is the entire production profile which will become important later. Note the jump in production between September, 2015 (9-2015) and and December, 2015 (12-2015), just three months later. It should be noted that the well was off-line for less than four weeks. This was discussed in the first post in this series.

Pool	Date	Days	BBLS Oil	Runs	BBLS Water	MCF Prod	MCF Sold	Vent/Flare
BAKKEN	11-2016	30	9221	9189	5102	33786	30243	3127
BAKKEN	10-2016	30	8593	8309	3867	36286	27155	7624
BAKKEN	9-2016	30	9254	9299	4511	33879	29915	2377
BAKKEN	8-2016	31	10409	10252	4923	33274	29962	1743
BAKKEN	7-2016	31	11474	11600	5402	34798	31121	2167
BAKKEN	6-2016	30	11816	11869	5481	37641	33440	2735
BAKKEN	5-2016	31	14167	14022	6503	38018	34528	2028
BAKKEN	4-2016	30	14843	15198	7622	40123	36609	2011
BAKKEN	3-2016	31	17491	17267	6814	41989	38394	1990
BAKKEN	2-2016	29	19532	19465	7841	39032	35651	2071
BAKKEN	1-2016	28	20331	20121	8453	37788	31725	4678
BAKKEN	12-2015	15	11588	11882	4979	17872	17021	0
BAKKEN	11-2015	3	677	618	110	221	189	20
BAKKEN	10-2015	25	1931	1716	1272	4	0	0
BAKKEN	9-2015	26	1868	1941	530	101	0	0
BAKKEN	8-2015	31	2420	2573	779	110	0	0
BAKKEN	7-2015	31	2657	2654	829	3343	0	3142
BAKKEN	6-2015	29	3141	3069	552	4288	3937	28
BAKKEN	5-2015	31	4134	4226	1058	5358	4822	136
BAKKEN	4-2015	23	4465	4513	1321	6053	5571	0
BAKKEN	3-2015	18	5499	5473	913	6425	6098	0
NEIGHBOR	2-2015	7	5962	5912	243	5279	5039	0
FRACKED	1-2015	11	6465	6557	0	7397	6993	10
BAKKEN	12-2014	31	19773	19709	11	21843	17052	3961
BAKKEN	11-2014	7	5863	5670	11	8478	7516	843
BAKKEN	10-2014	15	295	295	0	899	0	899
BAKKEN	9-2014	20	11133	11128	6	16555	12268	3736
BAKKEN	8-2014	31	14775	14777	6	15808	13414	1552
BAKKEN	7-2014	22	10453	10213	34	9763	8437	768
BAKKEN	6-2014	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	5-2014	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	4-2014	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	3-2014	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	2-2014	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	1-2014	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	12-2013	31	13405	13685	1373	17906	17485	0
BAKKEN	11-2013	30	8002	8195	455	7915	7514	0
BAKKEN	10-2013	24	6739	6536	613	773	501	0
BAKKEN	9-2013	30	11334	12149	1050	14777	14369	0
BAKKEN	8-2013	31	13366	13261	1268	19155	18734	0
BAKKEN	7-2013	31	12846	12091	1005	14460	14039	0
BAKKEN	6-2013	30	12720	12960	1110	17268	17268	0
BAKKEN	5-2013	31	15282	15682	1489	24937	24937	0
BAKKEN	4-2013	30	17345	16808	1859	30594	30594	0
BAKKEN	3-2013	31	20224	20215	1949	32560	32560	0
BAKKEN	2-2013	28	20025	19775	1934	26243	26243	0
BAKKEN	1-2013	31	23996	24924	2430	28650	28650	0
BAKKEN	12-2012	31	28964	27996	2399	28980	28980	0
BAKKEN	11-2012	30	26185	25925	2202	27196	27196	0
BAKKEN	10-2012	31	33959	34308	3074	31665	31665	0
BAKKEN	9-2012	29	41980	41809	10280	56811	40292	16519
BAKKEN	8-2012	12	20163	19676	9000	24426	3686	20740

This series will continue.