Sunday, June 19, 2022

Focus On Fracking -- June 19, 2022

Link here.

Absolutely fascinating:
US oil data from the US Energy Information Administration for the week ending June 10th showed that after a big increae in our oil imports, another big oil withdrawal from the SPR, and an increase in oil supplies that could not be accounted for more than covered a near record jump in our oil exports, we had oil left to add our stored commercial crude supplies for the 7th time in 11 weeks, and for the 22nd time in the past 50 weeks…our imports of crude oil rose by an average of 831,000 barrels per day to an average of 6,985,000 barrels per day, after falling by an average of 64,000 barrels per day during the prior week, while our exports of crude oil rose by 1,493,000 barrels per day to 3,725,000 barrels per day, after falling by 1,758,000 barrels per day during the prior week, which meant that our trade in oil worked out to a net import average of 3,260,000 barrels of oil per day during the week ending June 10th, 622,000 fewer barrels per day than the net of our imports minus our exports during the prior week…over the same period, production of crude from US wells reportedly rose by 100,000 barrels per day to 12,000,000 barrels per day, and hence our daily supply of oil from the net of our international trade in oil and from domestic well production appears to have totaled an average of 15,260,000 barrels per day during the cited reporting week….

Poking Around -- June 19, 2022

ELMS: files for bankruptcy protection; previously posted. So, I was curious. Any news on Rivian? 

Link here. Three days ago. 

From that linked article:


CLR: Why might Harold Hamm want to go private? Link here. From the linked article:

Department of Mineral Resources (DMR) Director Lynn Helms told reporters on Tuesday that North Dakota’s privately held exploration and production (E&P) companies have returned to pre-pandemic production levels, while output from their publicly traded counterparts is still well below that amount.

“Going private appears to have opened the door to better leveraging your cash flow, to private venture capital, to less scrutiny from the administration,” Helms said. “If we see more of that, I think we could see more rapid production growth.”

Public E&Ps have faced pressure from investors to keep production in check, and to deliver on environmental, social and governance metrics
Public E&Ps have faced pressure from investors to keep production in check, and to deliver on environmental, social and governance metrics. Helms also referenced enhanced climate disclosure requirements that the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) has proposed for public E&Ps.

The new SEC rules if adopted would require public E&Ps to disclose risks climate change poses to their business, and to disclose their own greenhouse gas emissions.

“That’s probably the biggest [factor] pushing companies to want to go private, and get out of the public investment realm because those SEC requirements are very draconian and very difficult to meet,” Helms said. “It’s also driving public investment out of the oil and gas area.”

In a letter to Continental employees explaining the rationale to take the company private, Hamm said, “We have consistently said that as long as we were appreciated in the market, we would remain a public company, but if our opportunities were limited by being public, we should look at alternatives. We have determined that the opportunity today is with private companies who have the freedom to operate and aren’t limited by public markets, similar to the way that we operated approximately 15 years ago, prior to becoming a public entity.”

Helms, meanwhile, said North Dakota’s public E&Ps are planning to increase production in the state by 1-2% in 2022, while private producers are “much more optimistic than that.” He added, “I think it’s been borne out by what we’ve seen in the rig count.”

The trend is playing out elsewhere in the Lower 48 as well. In the Permian Basin, private companies more than doubled their collective rig count between January 2021 and April 2022. The Permian privates are expected to raise their collective capital spending to nearly $9 billion in 2022 from $5.8 billion in 2021, according to recent analysis by Rystad Energy.

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New Bed For The Twins

Happy Father's Day -- What A Great Country -- June 19, 2022

Link here.

ERCOT: no problem with the Texas grid this weekend.

ISO-NE and ISO-NY: no problem with the grid today. Just expensive. And it will get more expensive, according to The WSJ. But what do they know?

Kaliningrad blockade: the next big story coming out of Europe. 

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The Clown Show

Link here.

More cowbell.

The administration is starting to warn us. Classic politics.

Link here. No matter how bad it get, President Biden has a knack for making it worse. This is from his SecEnergy as reported by Bloomberg.

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At The Pool

It's 8:58 p.m. CT.

I'm at the pool. I'm the only one here. Beautiful evening.

87°F. Slight breeze. Water is very warm after a full week of 100°+ temperatures.

The pool lights have just come on. Beautiful, beautiful evening. 

Reminds me of my time on the Amazon River almost thirty years ago. 

Warm evening; warm water. The lights along the shore.

Themes -- 2022 -- June 19, 2022

Themes, 2022.

Will add the following to that page, today, June 19, 2022:

  • Germany energy situation is dire. How dire? They moving back to coal.
  • New England, US: utility rates too double this year.

New England: significant rate increases this year. And here. And, here

Germany energy situation is dire. The country is moving back to coal.

Germany's Energy Situation Has Deteriorated This Past Week; Germany Taking Increasingly Serious Action -- June 19, 2022

 The Energy Transition Is Dead

Link here. "The energy transition is dead. We just haven't realized it yet." -- Peter Zeihan

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Greta's Head Is Exploding Today
Assuming She Even Cares Any More
Germany Moving Back To Coal

This is what Germany is facing, link here. In my twitter energy feed, this appears to be the #1 story:

In view of the throttling of gas supplies from Russia, the federal government is taking additional measures to save gas. In this way, the use of gas for power generation and industry will be reduced and storage tanks will be filled.

Federal Economics and Climate Protection Minister Robert Habeck:

“The situation on the gas market has deteriorated in recent days. The missing quantities can still be replaced, and the gas storage tanks are still being filled, albeit at high prices. Security of supply is currently guaranteed. 
But the situation is serious
We are therefore further strengthening precautions and taking additional measures to reduce gas consumption. 
This means that gas consumption must continue to fall, so more gas must be stored in storage, otherwise things will get really tight in winter. 
We will now take the next steps. 
For months we have been in the process of sharpening tools, creating new ones and removing existing obstacles. We are accelerating the expansion of renewable energies in an unprecedented way, we are pushing through the storage of gas and driving the expansion of LNG terminals and energy efficiency measures. The urgency of these tasks determines our ongoing work. 
Now we're going to pull out and use another set of tools. 
We will reduce gas consumption in the electricity sector and in industry and force storage tanks to be filled. Depending on the situation, we will take further measures.” 
The minister made it clear: “The tense situation and high prices are a direct consequence of Putin's war of aggression against Ukraine. There is no mistake. What's more, it's obviously Putin's strategy to unsettle us, drive up prices and divide us. We won't allow that. We defend ourselves resolutely, precisely and thoughtfully.”

Tea leaves: when President Biden returns from Saudi Arabia after his non-meeting with Prince MBS, the US SecEnergy is going to make a similar statement regarding the US. But it won't be coal: it will most likely be a ban of some sort on refined products (gasoline / diesel) from the US.  

I cannot think of any other option that would change things so quickly for the US consumer.

I'll write the SecEnergy Jen Granholm speech for her:

In view of the high price of gasoline, diesel fuel and heating oil, that the US oil sector has refused to acknowledge, the federal government is taking additional measures to bring the price of gasoline down. We cannot afford to destroy the US economy when the oil companies will not do their patriotic duty to help us bring the price of gasoline down for the working American.

The situation with regard to the price of gasoline has deteriorated in recent days. The high prices are destroying the American dream. Even worse, the security of adequate gasoline supply cannot be guaranteed if Exxon continues with their destructive policies.
To repeat: the situation is serious
We are therefore further strengthening precautions and taking additional measures to bring the price of gasoline down.
If we don't take serious action, things will only get worse as we move into peak driving season, August, just a month away.
Therefore, we will now take the next steps. 
For months we have been in the process of sharpening tools, creating new ones and removing existing obstacles. We are accelerating the expansion of renewable energies in an unprecedented way, we are pushing the oil sector to drill more and refine more. But the urgency of these tasks has become even more urgent. 
Now we're going to pull out and use another set of tools. 
We will temporarily ban the export of US refined products. The President will sign an executive order that the US will curtail the export of gasoline, diesel, and heating oil for the next three months. 
Depending on the situation, we will take further measures.
The president will appoint a bi-partisan committee with a dual mandate: bring the price of gasoline down to historical levels and expedite the transition to renewable energy. The members of the committee, headed by the vice-president, Ms Kamala Harris, will include John Kerry, Elizabeth Warren, Diane Feinstein, Bernie Sanders and Mitt Romney.

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The Sports Page

US Open at Brookline, MA.

Matt Fitzpatrick won as US amateur in 2013. Eighteen years old.

Matt Fitzpatrick won today as US Open Champion, 2022. Braces on his teeth.

BNPL -- The Next Big Thing -- American Express -- June 19, 2022

The other day I wrote this:

Without question, to stay relevant, MC, Visa, Discover, et al will have to offer buy now pay later options. 

I'm glad I did not include American Express in that short list. LOL.

Yesterday, I just happened to see a commercial for American Express small business credit card with BNPL feature. Amazing.



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Amazon

I think this is the first time this has happened to me, and I've ordered a lot from Amazon over the years. If it's not the first time, I don't recall when it's happened before.

I ordered an Apple accessory on Friday and it was to be delivered Saturday. I got a note that the delivery will be delayed until either today, Sunday, or tomorrow. 

Only one of two things can explain this:

  • one, the item was not immediately available; unlikely, as this was a very, very common Apple accessory;
  • two, Amazon literally maxed out deliveries in the local area this weekend.

I think it was the latter. If accurate, speaks volumes about the shipping volumes Amazon is experiencing.

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Cryptocurrency

Trading cryptocurrency does not end at the end of the normal workweek. Trading continues into the weekend. BITC had a very, very bad day yesterday, Saturday.

Disclaimer: this is not an investment site.  Do not make any investment, financial, job, career, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here.

All my posts are done quickly: there will be content and typographical errors. If anything on any of my posts is important to you, go to the source. If/when I find typographical / content errors, I will correct them.

FINA World Championships Budapest 2022 -- Swimming -- Ledecky

Day 2, link here:

Day 1 (re-posting):

Links everywhere. Here's one.

Katie Ledecky has started the United States’ medal collection at the world swimming championships with a gold by reclaiming her title in the women’s 400 meters.

Ledecky clocked 3 minutes, 58.15 seconds on the first day of racing Saturday for her fourth world title in the 400 freestyle after 2013, 2015 and 2017.

Ariarne Titmus pipped Ledecky to the title in 2019 and took her world record last month but the Australian has skipped the worlds in Budapest to focus on the Commonwealth Games next month in England.

Canada’s 15-year-old Summer McIntosh finished 1.24 seconds behind Ledecky for the silver. Both were well ahead of the competition, with American Leah Smith 3.93 behind Ledecky in third and Australia’s Lani Pallister finishing fourth. 

Initial Production For Wells Coming Off Confidential List This Next Week -- June 19, 2022

See if you can spot the most interesting data point regarding these wells that come off the confidential  list this next week. 

The wells:

  • 38601, conf, Murex, Borstad 34-10H-1 1MB, West Tioga, no production data.
  • 38179, conf, Hess, AN-Norby-152-94-0409H-8, Antelope, initial production:
DateOil RunsMCF Sold
1-20224213735192
12-20211424818043
  • 38003, conf, Hess, CA-E Burdick-155-95-2932H-8, Capa, initial production:
DateOil RunsMCF Sold
4-20221605429698
3-20221597221934
2-20224223078329
  • 38660, conf, CLR, LCU Reckitt 10-22H1X, Long Creek, no production data, 
  • 38599, conf, Murex, Borstad 34-10H-A 2MB, West Tioga, no production data, 
  • 38180, conf, Hess, AN-Norby-152-94-0409H-7, Antelope, initial data:
DateOil RunsMCF Sold
1-20223771418009
12-2021221320
  • 37142, conf, Hess, BL-Olson-LW-155-96-0310H-1, Beaver Lodge, initial data:
DateOil RunsMCF Sold
4-20221067441857
3-20222407760263
2-20222878465707
1-20223252280468
12-20211717021209
  • 38661, conf, CLR, LCU Reckitt 12-22HX, Long Creek, no production data,
  • 38662, conf, CLR, LCU Reckitt 12-22H1X, Long Creek, no production data,
  • 38658, conf, CLR, LCU Ralph 11-27HX, Long Creek, no production data,
  • 38598, conf, Murex, Sheldon Mark 34-22H-A 3MB, Tioga, no production data,
  • 38436, conf, WPX, Wounded Face 14-15HEL, McGregory Buttes, no production data,
  • 37330, conf, Petro-Hunt, Lovdahl 158-94-32C-29-3H, Tioga, no production data,

Wells Coming Off The Confidential List This Next Week -- June 19, 2022

Monday, June 27, 2022: 38 for the month, 176 for the quarter, 335 for the year 
  • None.

Sunday, June 26, 2022: 38 for the month, 176 for the quarter, 335 for the year

  • 38601, conf, Murex, Borstad 34-10H-1 1MB,
  • 38179, conf, Hess, AN-Norby-152-94-0409H-8
  • 38003, conf, Hess, CA-E Burdick-155-95-2932H-8,

Saturday, June 25, 2022: 35 for the month, 173 for the quarter, 332 for the year

  • 38660, conf, CLR, LCU Reckitt 10-22H1X,

Friday, June 24, 2022: 34 for the month, 172 for the quarter, 331 for the year

  • None.

Thursday, June 23, 2022: 34 for the month, 172 for the quarter, 331 for the year

  • 38599, conf, Murex, Borstad 34-10H-A 2MB, 
  • 38180, conf, Hess, AN-Norby-152-94-0409H-7,
  • 37142, conf, Hess, BL-Olson-LW-155-96-0310H-1,

Wednesday, June 22, 2022: 31 for the month, 169 for the quarter, 329 for the year

  • 38661, conf, CLR, LCU Reckitt 12-22HX,

Tuesday, June 21, 2022: 30 for the month, 168 for the quarter, 328 for the year

  • None.

Monday, June 20, 2022: 30 for the month, 168 for the quarter, 328 for the year

  • None.

Sunday, June 19, 2022: 30 for the month, 168 for the quarter, 328 for the year

  • 38662, conf, CLR, LCU Reckitt 12-22H1X, 
  • 38658, conf, CLR, LCU Ralph 11-27HX, 
  • 38598, conf, Murex, Sheldon Mark 34-22H-A 3MB,

Saturday, June 18, 2022: 27 for the month, 165 for the quarter, 325 for the year

  • 38436, conf, WPX, Wounded Face 14-15HEL,
  • 37330, conf, Petro-Hunt, Lovdahl 158-94-32C-29-3H,

Clearing Out The In-Box -- June 19, 2022

Commentary:

  • the Biden visit to Saudi Arabia: nothing suggests this will be a successful visit of any importance on any issue
    • an incredibly expensive trip, time-wise; physically; and politically
    • obvious question: why is Biden doing it? 
    • tea leaves suggest Saudi has no more to give
  • most important question:
    • every action has a reaction
    • immediately upon return from a highly visible and politically expensive trip with no results, the administration needs to make a huge announcement;
    • what will that announcement be? This is the big question.
  • options for Biden if trip fails
    • tea leaves:
      • US to ban crude oil exports at least at some level
      • another release from the SPR (in addition to previously announced one million bopd through November)
      • windfall profits tax
      • gasoline vouchers 
      • nationalize two or more mothballed, recently shut-down refineries (would take way too long to make any difference, but might "scare" current refiners) 
      • federal gasoline tax holiday — quick! What’s that tax per gallon?

OPEC: keeps missing production goals

  • jeoparidizes Biden's visit to Saudi Arabia to request more oil imports
  • only Gabon and South Sudan are meeting producing goals:


Permian: Targa expands footprint.

  • to acquire Lucid Energy Delaware LLC from Riverstone Holdings LLC and Goldman Sachs
  • $3.55 billion in cash
  • current rig activity supports over 20 years of drilling inventory on Lucid's 600,000 dedicated acres
  • in addition, Targa provided more details on the Midway plant
  • a new 275 MMcfd cryogenic natural gas processing plant
  • to begin operations 3Q23 (a year from now)

France: nuclear crisis.

  • France typically exports electricity
  • but now risks blackouts and a need for imported power because of problems at the state nuclear operator

EVs:

Apple:

  • employees at Maryland Apple store have voted to unionize; link here.

NHL

  • Stanley Cup; second game: blow-out -- 7 - 0; link here.

Politics:

Music:

Catch me if you can: