********************************
Feels Like A Friday
Everything is shut down. Nothing is open. Uber-driving responsibilities are much diminished for the next two weeks, maybe four weeks.
Time to enjoy an evening of Schubert.
Thursday, March 12, 2020
How Low Can We Go? -- March 12, 2020
Everything is shut down. Nothing is open. Uber-driving responsibilities are much diminished for the next two weeks, maybe four weeks.
Time to enjoy an evening of Schubert.
First Time Jobless Claims Drop More Than Expected --March 12, 2020
Memo to NASCAR: no one will notice --
Jobless claims, link here.
Natural gas fill, link here.
Jobless claims, link here.
- last: 216K
- revised: 2515K
- forecast: 216K
- actual: 211K
Natural gas fill, link here.
- prior: -109 bcf
- actual: -48 bcf
- prior:
- US: 793
- Gulf of Mexico: 23
Active Rigs Hold Steady At 56 -- March 12, 2020
Before we get started, this is interesting. In yesterday's daily activity report, it was reported that a CLR Irgens Rexall permit was canceled:
Active rigs;
Six new permits, #37441 - #37446, inclusive:
- 37294, PNC, CLR, Irgens Rexall 12-19HSLI, Williams County, East Fork, SWSE 19-156-99; 346 FSL 2259 FEL;
- 37446, conf, CLR,Irgens Rexall 11-19HSL1, Williams County, East Fork, SWSE 19-156-99; 571 FSL 2251 FEL;
Active rigs;
| $31.13 | 3/12/2020 | 03/12/2019 | 03/12/2018 | 03/12/2017 | 03/12/2016 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Active Rigs | 56 | 64 | 60 | 45 | 32 |
Six new permits, #37441 - #37446, inclusive:
- Operator: Kraken (5); CLR;
- Field: Oliver (Williams); East Fork (Williams)
- Comments:
- CLR has a permit for an Irgens Rexall well in SWSE 19-156-99, East Fork oil field
- Kraken has permits for a 5-well King/Cass pas in SWSW 9-157-98, Oliver oil field
- in that drilling unit, one producing well running to the north:
- 21778, 328, Kraken, Cass 1-9H, Oliver, t7/12; cum 148K 1/20; 30 stages, 3 million lbs with ceramic;
- in that drilling unit, three producing wells running to the south:
- 35167, 1,169, Kraken, Cass Sutton LE 4-9 1TFH, Oliver, t5/19; cum 129K 1/20; a huge well, another example of where the daughter well did so much better than a parent well; apparently something that is unique to the Bakken listening to the shale experts; 60 stages; 10 million lbs;
- 35168, 889, Kraken, Cass 4-9 3H, Oliver, t4/19; cum 153K 1/20; 60 stages; 10 million lbs;
- 35169, 725, Kraken, Cass 4-9 2TFH, Oliver, t4/19; cum 131K 1/20; 60 stages; 10 million lbs;
- EOG: one Liberty LR permit, #33434; and, one Clearwater permit, #36220; both in Mountrail County;
- file numbers
- oldest, #12764
- most recent, #13034
- all in Dunn County
- all were 8902 JV-P LKNMU wells: #1, 2, 3B, 4B, 5D, 6, 7, and 8
Reading Assignment For The Weekend -- March 12, 2020
I've not read the entire article yet. This is one article I want to read slowly and carefully for a number of reasons. It was sent to me by a reader who is credible and trustworthy. The reader says he has a 30-year history of working in the financial services industry, to include NYC.
The article is a Rolling Story article. Interestingly enough, the current issue of the Rolling Issue also has an article in line with Trump's analysis of the coronavirus pandemic: don't panic.
An aside: Maher is looking more and more credible every day.
The article is about Goldman Sachs. Maybe more later.
Matt Taibbi, the writer of the article: one may want to read the wiki entry to get some background.
By the way, this is an article I cannot read while doing other things; it's one of those articles that demands my full attention, so I will read it when I won't get any interruptions.
Break, break.
Between 2002 and 2004, or thereabouts, I was deployed to northern England multiple times to support the USAF intel mission. It was an incredibly turbulent time in general (9/11 shortly before the deployments began) and for me personally. There were two activities that I treasured on those deployments.
I had weekends entirely free, something I rarely experienced in the US Air Force during my 30-year-and-1-day career. I took advantage of that by walking the Yorkshire countryside near the Scottish border for twelve hours on Saturday and somewhat less on Sunday. It was beautiful and peaceful but by the end of the walks I was generally exhausted, especially on Saturday. I would leave about 7:00 a.m. and return about 7:00 p.m. I think I've blogged about this before. There were some evenings I did not think I had the energy to walk the last mile. I had no access to news, no access to anything. It was a solitary walk. I carried a portable Walkman CD player and played Hank Williams over and over and over. I carried that one CD on those walks.
The other wonderful memory I had was "Evensong." I forget what day of the week I attended "Evensong." It was always a weekend evening. Harking back to a few key memories I do believe "Evensong" that I attended in the wonderful Ripon Cathedral was on Sunday evening. Don't hold me to that. It is impossible to articulate how calm, how restful, Evensong was.
It's interesting: both Rush Limbaugh (radio) and the PGA Players tournament (television) have just begun for the day. Generally, I eagerly look forward to both. By now, I would be enjoying either one or the other both at the same time. Today, as they say, for me they don't hold a candle to Franz Schubert.
Franz Peter Schubert: German: 31 January 1797 – 19 November 1828. An Austrian composer of the late Classical and early Romantic eras. Despite his short lifetime -- do the math, he died at age 31 -- Schubert left behind a vast oeuvre, including more than 600 secular vocal works, seven complete symphonies, sacred music, operas, incidental music and a large body of piano and chamber music.
The article is a Rolling Story article. Interestingly enough, the current issue of the Rolling Issue also has an article in line with Trump's analysis of the coronavirus pandemic: don't panic.
An aside: Maher is looking more and more credible every day.
The article is about Goldman Sachs. Maybe more later.
Matt Taibbi, the writer of the article: one may want to read the wiki entry to get some background.
By the way, this is an article I cannot read while doing other things; it's one of those articles that demands my full attention, so I will read it when I won't get any interruptions.
Break, break.
Between 2002 and 2004, or thereabouts, I was deployed to northern England multiple times to support the USAF intel mission. It was an incredibly turbulent time in general (9/11 shortly before the deployments began) and for me personally. There were two activities that I treasured on those deployments.
I had weekends entirely free, something I rarely experienced in the US Air Force during my 30-year-and-1-day career. I took advantage of that by walking the Yorkshire countryside near the Scottish border for twelve hours on Saturday and somewhat less on Sunday. It was beautiful and peaceful but by the end of the walks I was generally exhausted, especially on Saturday. I would leave about 7:00 a.m. and return about 7:00 p.m. I think I've blogged about this before. There were some evenings I did not think I had the energy to walk the last mile. I had no access to news, no access to anything. It was a solitary walk. I carried a portable Walkman CD player and played Hank Williams over and over and over. I carried that one CD on those walks.
The other wonderful memory I had was "Evensong." I forget what day of the week I attended "Evensong." It was always a weekend evening. Harking back to a few key memories I do believe "Evensong" that I attended in the wonderful Ripon Cathedral was on Sunday evening. Don't hold me to that. It is impossible to articulate how calm, how restful, Evensong was.
It's interesting: both Rush Limbaugh (radio) and the PGA Players tournament (television) have just begun for the day. Generally, I eagerly look forward to both. By now, I would be enjoying either one or the other both at the same time. Today, as they say, for me they don't hold a candle to Franz Schubert.
Franz Peter Schubert: German: 31 January 1797 – 19 November 1828. An Austrian composer of the late Classical and early Romantic eras. Despite his short lifetime -- do the math, he died at age 31 -- Schubert left behind a vast oeuvre, including more than 600 secular vocal works, seven complete symphonies, sacred music, operas, incidental music and a large body of piano and chamber music.
NOG: 4Q19 And Full Year 2019 Results
Link here.
- Fourth quarter production increased 8% over the third quarter, averaging a record 43,941 barrels of oil equivalent per day. Production approximated the midpoint of guidance despite higher than forecasted curtailments
- Full year 2019 production increased 51% over 2018, averaging 38,604 Boe per day
- Fourth quarter capital expenditures of $134.6 million, including $45.3 million in ground game and associated D&C capital
- 2019 year-end proved reserves of 163.3 million Boe, up 21% from 2018 year-end
- Senior Secured Notes balance reduced to $341.0 million as of March 10, 2020, down from $695.1 million at 2018 year-end
- Revolving Credit Facility borrowing base increased to $800 million, from $425 million
- 2020 oil production expected to be over 75% hedged at $58 per barrel average price in the current environment
- 2020 capital expenditures anticipated at approximately $200 million in the current environment, down over 55% vs. 2019
- 2020 free cash flow projected to be significant even assuming $30 per barrel WTI price Due to current macro environment, Northern delaying decision on commencing common stock dividend and will reassess in the second quarter
The Power Of Persuasion -- From AOC's Daughter If She Had One -- March 12, 2020
If you have time for just one video today, this is the one:
It is from The [London] Daily Mail. For those who do not understand the Queen's English, there are subtitles.
It will download on your desktop. I have not checked the video for the coronavirus or other viruses. Download at your own risk. But I've downloaded it several times, watched it several times, and my computer still scans negative for viruses.
Cruisin' American Graffiti
It is from The [London] Daily Mail. For those who do not understand the Queen's English, there are subtitles.
It will download on your desktop. I have not checked the video for the coronavirus or other viruses. Download at your own risk. But I've downloaded it several times, watched it several times, and my computer still scans negative for viruses.
A huge "thank you" to the reader who sent this link my way.
By the way, I'm using that MP4 linked above as a teaching aid for Sophia to improve her skills of persuasion.
By the way, I'm using that MP4 linked above as a teaching aid for Sophia to improve her skills of persuasion.
People Will Have To Start Driving To Europe -- AOC -- March 12, 2020
Wow, isn't this surprising? Link here.
This may be record demand for gasoline for this time of the year:
Now that people can't go sit at a basketball game for four hours, they will be driving around for four hours. What's not to like?
I can't think of many thing activities much safer than cruising and more fun. And now it's getting really, really cheap. Alone in a huge SUV built for nine. A Bose radio speaker system. Music as loud as you want to play it.
Can we go below $1.47, the previous low? Let's check.
Gas Buddy, Oklahoma City: $1.42 at a 7-11 on the southwest side of the city.
I filled my 2012 Honda Civic for $12.75 yesterday, here in north Texas, near DFW.
Or not.
I was listening to Franz Schubert on Alexa and this popped up. I thought Alexa had squeezed in a Willie Nelson instrumental.
In Die Musik, D. 547, Franz Schubert
This may be record demand for gasoline for this time of the year:
Now that people can't go sit at a basketball game for four hours, they will be driving around for four hours. What's not to like?
I can't think of many thing activities much safer than cruising and more fun. And now it's getting really, really cheap. Alone in a huge SUV built for nine. A Bose radio speaker system. Music as loud as you want to play it.
Can we go below $1.47, the previous low? Let's check.
Gas Buddy, Oklahoma City: $1.42 at a 7-11 on the southwest side of the city.
I filled my 2012 Honda Civic for $12.75 yesterday, here in north Texas, near DFW.
**********************************
Willie Nelson Plays Franz Schubert
Or not.
I was listening to Franz Schubert on Alexa and this popped up. I thought Alexa had squeezed in a Willie Nelson instrumental.
Are You A Bad Person If You Get Coronavirus? -- March 12, 2020
Tom Hanks was apologetic. Will he ever be hired again by Hollywood? He's been tagged. Even if he survives the next three weeks, he will forever be known as the actor that got coronavirus. The guy that lived in an airport for an entire movie. The guy that survived that island.
Apparently it's even worse for his life partner. That individual apparently has flu symptoms. Resting comfortably at home.
But I digress. Back to the question at hand: are you a bad person if you get coronavirus. It's not like practicing (practicing? really? we need practice?) unsafe sex. But you must have disobeyed all the recommendations:
Or is it the new red badge of courage?
Social media photos are now no longer tagged with names; they are tagged with "coronavirus" status.
Anyway, I'm heading out. I'm going to walk over to the Lego store across the street. If you don't see any more blogging, I did not die of an infectious disease. I was hit by a bus.
Apparently it's even worse for his life partner. That individual apparently has flu symptoms. Resting comfortably at home.
But I digress. Back to the question at hand: are you a bad person if you get coronavirus. It's not like practicing (practicing? really? we need practice?) unsafe sex. But you must have disobeyed all the recommendations:
- don't leave your home
- wash your hands every thirty seconds
- wash them for twenty seconds (for the NYT editorial board, that's singing the "alphabet" song once through to the end)
- don't touch your face
- don't shake hands (even fist taps should be questioned)
- don't travel to Australia
Or is it the new red badge of courage?
Social media photos are now no longer tagged with names; they are tagged with "coronavirus" status.
Anyway, I'm heading out. I'm going to walk over to the Lego store across the street. If you don't see any more blogging, I did not die of an infectious disease. I was hit by a bus.
Cherry-Picking Another Great Charlson Well -- March 12, 2020
The well:
But this is what caught my eye, not that it was a great well, but rather that it was a new well with an old, old permit. These old permits exist all over the Bakken.
Also note that most Bakken wells are put on a pump at six months. This well, at 18 months, is still flowing without a pump at the time the NDIC posted this production profile.
- 29978, 1,209, Petro-Hunt, Van Hise Trust 153-95-28C-21-3H, Charlson, F, t8/18; cum 359K 1/20;
| Pool | Date | Days | BBLS Oil | Runs | BBLS Water | MCF Prod | MCF Sold | Vent/Flare |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BAKKEN | 1-2020 | 31 | 14649 | 14663 | 2550 | 37372 | 36468 | 688 |
| BAKKEN | 12-2019 | 31 | 16007 | 16000 | 2424 | 39737 | 39369 | 152 |
| BAKKEN | 11-2019 | 30 | 16335 | 16552 | 2845 | 39698 | 39447 | 42 |
| BAKKEN | 10-2019 | 31 | 18657 | 18777 | 2831 | 42284 | 41965 | 103 |
| BAKKEN | 9-2019 | 30 | 16189 | 16169 | 2364 | 30692 | 27975 | 2508 |
| BAKKEN | 8-2019 | 31 | 15002 | 14856 | 1889 | 25795 | 25522 | 57 |
| BAKKEN | 7-2019 | 31 | 14838 | 14998 | 2371 | 25925 | 25709 | 0 |
| BAKKEN | 6-2019 | 30 | 15850 | 15663 | 2061 | 26678 | 26469 | 0 |
| BAKKEN | 5-2019 | 31 | 17109 | 17162 | 2151 | 29224 | 29008 | 0 |
| BAKKEN | 4-2019 | 30 | 17828 | 17928 | 2168 | 30405 | 30196 | 0 |
| BAKKEN | 3-2019 | 31 | 20434 | 20208 | 2488 | 33295 | 33079 | 0 |
| BAKKEN | 2-2019 | 28 | 18577 | 18757 | 2537 | 31695 | 31500 | 0 |
| BAKKEN | 1-2019 | 31 | 22712 | 22678 | 3255 | 38600 | 37471 | 913 |
| BAKKEN | 12-2018 | 31 | 24413 | 24640 | 3399 | 42297 | 41225 | 856 |
| BAKKEN | 11-2018 | 30 | 26117 | 26184 | 3953 | 47298 | 33052 | 14037 |
| BAKKEN | 10-2018 | 31 | 30064 | 29779 | 4570 | 50481 | 48375 | 1890 |
| BAKKEN | 9-2018 | 30 | 27546 | 27757 | 4150 | 45478 | 45269 | 5 |
| BAKKEN | 8-2018 | 27 | 26834 | 26118 | 5364 | 41882 | 39833 | 1865 |
| BAKKEN | 7-2018 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
But this is what caught my eye, not that it was a great well, but rather that it was a new well with an old, old permit. These old permits exist all over the Bakken.
Also note that most Bakken wells are put on a pump at six months. This well, at 18 months, is still flowing without a pump at the time the NDIC posted this production profile.
Sand Creek Update -- March 12, 2020
Two things happened almost simultaneously. Okay, three things:
Those are the fields to watch during the 2020 oil shock-market meltdown.
Oil companies really, really try to optimize their plays, manage their assets. The last thing they want to do is deplete their great plays. Once found, oil companies want to minimize efforts that would needlessly deplete their great plays and focus on looking for new big plays -- either through exploration or acquisition.
Just as we saw in the trillion-dollar mistake back in 2014, with the 2020 oil shock-market meltdown, we're going to see the same thing: a circling of wagons and laser-like focus on biggest bang for the buck.
One casualty, if one wants to call it a casualty, is that operators will now go back into fields like the Sand Creek and deplete them, wishing they did not have to do that.
I am in the process of updating Sand Creek but even now, scrolling through the status of the permits in Sand Creek, one can see how much work is left to be done.
Case study, #19889:
Production five years later, no re-frack?
Recent production:
Pop quiz: when you scroll through the Sand Creek permits, what do you notice, what pops up immediately?
Answer: the field is not "owned' by any one operator. Numerous operators in that field, and not just small players, but some of the biggest players in the Bakken, in no particular order, just scrolling through the list:
- Oasis with two new permits in Sand Creek;
- a reader suggested I take another look at Sand Creek; and,
- I noted the other day that Sand Creek is really turning out to be a great field. I had kind of forgotten about Sand Creek but it, too, is going to be a monster.
Those are the fields to watch during the 2020 oil shock-market meltdown.
Oil companies really, really try to optimize their plays, manage their assets. The last thing they want to do is deplete their great plays. Once found, oil companies want to minimize efforts that would needlessly deplete their great plays and focus on looking for new big plays -- either through exploration or acquisition.
Just as we saw in the trillion-dollar mistake back in 2014, with the 2020 oil shock-market meltdown, we're going to see the same thing: a circling of wagons and laser-like focus on biggest bang for the buck.
One casualty, if one wants to call it a casualty, is that operators will now go back into fields like the Sand Creek and deplete them, wishing they did not have to do that.
I am in the process of updating Sand Creek but even now, scrolling through the status of the permits in Sand Creek, one can see how much work is left to be done.
Case study, #19889:
- see this post; and this post;
- 19889, 1,678, XTO, Sand Creek 21-10SH, 33-053-03348, Sand Creek oil field, section 10-153-96, t5/11; cum 596K 1/20; in its ninth year of production; FracFocus suggests no re-frack; I haven't checked the NDIC file report recently;
| BAKKEN | 10-2011 | 10 | 11805 | 12016 | 4121 | 28294 | 6 | 28288 |
| BAKKEN | 9-2011 | 30 | 9812 | 9782 | 1167 | 15754 | 1946 | 13808 |
| BAKKEN | 8-2011 | 31 | 12756 | 12812 | 1729 | 21484 | 3769 | 17715 |
| BAKKEN | 7-2011 | 31 | 13451 | 13051 | 1969 | 22463 | 7803 | 14660 |
| BAKKEN | 6-2011 | 30 | 15454 | 15441 | 2314 | 22342 | 7150 | 15192 |
| BAKKEN | 5-2011 | 29 | 16103 | 16173 | 3531 | 19006 | 8770 | 10236 |
| BAKKEN | 4-2011 | 22 | 1423 | 749 | 4996 | 3268 | 0 | 3268 |
Production five years later, no re-frack?
| BAKKEN | 12-2016 | 22 | 17348 | 17108 | 5147 | 34070 | 32848 | 486 |
| BAKKEN | 11-2016 | 30 | 21723 | 21761 | 10309 | 42107 | 39288 | 2010 |
| BAKKEN | 10-2016 | 31 | 29517 | 29368 | 12447 | 54910 | 43060 | 11010 |
| BAKKEN | 9-2016 | 27 | 27197 | 27115 | 11042 | 47620 | 31545 | 15717 |
| BAKKEN | 8-2016 | 31 | 28192 | 28074 | 10834 | 53086 | 51158 | 1737 |
| BAKKEN | 7-2016 | 24 | 22225 | 22257 | 17252 | 35045 | 25010 | 9907 |
| BAKKEN | 6-2016 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| BAKKEN | 5-2016 | 1 | 7 | 444 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| BAKKEN | 4-2016 | 29 | 2595 | 2275 | 395 | 3760 | 2758 | 295 |
Recent production:
| Pool | Date | Days | BBLS Oil | Runs | BBLS Water | MCF Prod | MCF Sold | Vent/Flare |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BAKKEN | 1-2020 | 31 | 1991 | 2129 | 1570 | 18808 | 18004 | 0 |
| BAKKEN | 12-2019 | 31 | 1980 | 1879 | 1516 | 19956 | 19135 | 0 |
| BAKKEN | 11-2019 | 30 | 1938 | 2121 | 1347 | 12730 | 6044 | 5905 |
| BAKKEN | 10-2019 | 31 | 1657 | 1376 | 1421 | 10818 | 8672 | 1299 |
| BAKKEN | 9-2019 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| BAKKEN | 8-2019 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| BAKKEN | 7-2019 | 11 | 196 | 244 | 150 | 2181 | 1972 | 0 |
| BAKKEN | 6-2019 | 30 | 1844 | 2051 | 1450 | 16481 | 15807 | 0 |
| BAKKEN | 5-2019 | 31 | 2412 | 2383 | 1552 | 15904 | 13601 | 1554 |
| BAKKEN | 4-2019 | 16 | 1132 | 966 | 851 | 7882 | 4838 | 2657 |
| BAKKEN | 3-2019 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 260 | 254 | 0 |
| BAKKEN | 2-2019 | 11 | 409 | 663 | 252 | 2580 | 1160 | 1150 |
| BAKKEN | 1-2019 | 31 | 1525 | 1813 | 985 | 9964 | 8486 | 654 |
Pop quiz: when you scroll through the Sand Creek permits, what do you notice, what pops up immediately?
Answer: the field is not "owned' by any one operator. Numerous operators in that field, and not just small players, but some of the biggest players in the Bakken, in no particular order, just scrolling through the list:
- Newfield
- BR
- XTO
- Whiting
- Oasis
- Slawson
A Reader Suggests, If Bored, Take Another Look At #19845 -- March 12, 2020
A reader noted that I must be bored. He was completely correct. I am really, really bored. Sorry. But that's a fact, Jack.
The reader suggested if I run out of things about which to blog, I should take a look at NDIC file numbers, #19845 and #19889.
My reply:
Note the small jump in production in late 2018. The actual amount is somewhat irrelevant. What is important is this: something extended the lifetime of this well; the EUR will increase. This is not allowed under Hubbert's peak oil theory.
Now back to #19845:
Note the jump in production in late 2018. Same comments as previously made for the earlier well.
The reader suggested if I run out of things about which to blog, I should take a look at NDIC file numbers, #19845 and #19889.
My reply:
Thank you, much appreciated. How did you guess I was bored? From that long note on the Hess DUC that was reported [yesterday]? LOL. I was bored. Looking for almost anything about the Bakken.Van Hise Trust (#19845): I know it well --#19889: an XTO well in Sand Creek. Very, very coincidental.Oasis with two new permits in Sand Creek earlier this week (yesterday, I guess) ... Sand Creek is turning out to be a very, very good field. I was going to do a stand-alone update on Sand Creek. Had not gotten around to it ... thank you.
Yes, one of the problems with the blog: once I post something really spectacular about the Bakken, that post immediately gets buried by five or six more posts in rapid succession. The Van Hise Trust well, #19845, is an excellent example. I covered it in depth a long time ago -- another monster well that I cherry-picked to show just how great the Bakken really is.
Disclaimer: I am inappropriately exuberant about the Bakken.
By the way, before I forget, a global oil analyst tweeted this morning that crude oil demand, or was it gasoline demand, was at an all time high. I forget whether it was crude oil demand or gasoline demand and whether it was global or US -- I was scrolling to fast -- we'll sort this out later. But at $30/bbl, crude oil will be flying off the shelves -- or flowing like champagne on New Year's Eve.
So, back to #19845. First these links:
- from above; and, here;
No data from FracFocus that this well has been re-fracked (previously posted). A reader confirms that this well has not bee re-fracked. The well (this is the neighbor well to #19845):Production period of interest:
- 21716, 943, Petro-Hunt, Van Hise Trust 153-95-28C-21-2H, t12/12; cum 533K 6/18; neighbor well, #19845 is also interesting -- production posted down below)
| BAKKEN | 2-2019 | 28 | 3075 | 3125 | 548 | 7779 | 7371 | 213 |
| BAKKEN | 1-2019 | 31 | 3603 | 3600 | 614 | 8607 | 8013 | 378 |
| BAKKEN | 12-2018 | 31 | 4006 | 3999 | 594 | 8904 | 7547 | 1141 |
| BAKKEN | 11-2018 | 30 | 4501 | 4496 | 713 | 9622 | 3309 | 6104 |
| BAKKEN | 10-2018 | 31 | 5312 | 5361 | 581 | 9785 | 8037 | 1532 |
| BAKKEN | 9-2018 | 29 | 5039 | 5007 | 570 | 8377 | 8115 | 69 |
| BAKKEN | 8-2018 | 24 | 5006 | 4984 | 405 | 7043 | 6790 | 124 |
| BAKKEN | 7-2018 | 1 | 7 | 0 | 20 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| BAKKEN | 6-2018 | 25 | 2592 | 2768 | 80 | 6359 | 5342 | 843 |
| BAKKEN | 5-2018 | 3 | 320 | 0 | 33 | 600 | 286 | 300 |
| BAKKEN | 4-2018 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| BAKKEN | 3-2018 | 30 | 1855 | 1925 | 322 | 5582 | 5387 | 0 |
Note the small jump in production in late 2018. The actual amount is somewhat irrelevant. What is important is this: something extended the lifetime of this well; the EUR will increase. This is not allowed under Hubbert's peak oil theory.
Now back to #19845:
- 19845,1,084, Petro-Hunt, Van Hise Trust 153-95-28C-21-1H, Charlson, t8/11; cum 515K 6/18;
Recent production:
| Pool | Date | Days | BBLS Oil | Runs | BBLS Water | MCF Prod | MCF Sold | Vent/Flare |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BAKKEN | 1-2020 | 31 | 3558 | 3385 | 1054 | 4584 | 4352 | 16 |
| BAKKEN | 12-2019 | 31 | 2756 | 2751 | 727 | 4047 | 3821 | 10 |
| BAKKEN | 11-2019 | 30 | 2955 | 2988 | 702 | 3960 | 3714 | 37 |
| BAKKEN | 10-2019 | 31 | 3182 | 3117 | 846 | 4432 | 4194 | 22 |
| BAKKEN | 9-2019 | 30 | 3609 | 3541 | 927 | 5287 | 4865 | 213 |
| BAKKEN | 8-2019 | 31 | 3617 | 3614 | 989 | 6005 | 5741 | 48 |
| BAKKEN | 7-2019 | 31 | 3855 | 3948 | 1096 | 6300 | 6084 | 0 |
| BAKKEN | 6-2019 | 30 | 4045 | 4045 | 1015 | 6152 | 5943 | 0 |
| BAKKEN | 5-2019 | 31 | 4137 | 4077 | 1214 | 6091 | 5878 | 0 |
| BAKKEN | 4-2019 | 30 | 4635 | 4635 | 1269 | 6602 | 6398 | 0 |
| BAKKEN | 3-2019 | 31 | 5291 | 5308 | 1542 | 7131 | 6915 | 0 |
| BAKKEN | 2-2019 | 28 | 4893 | 4869 | 1030 | 6713 | 6298 | 220 |
| BAKKEN | 1-2019 | 31 | 6537 | 6484 | 1398 | 9124 | 7694 | 1214 |
| BAKKEN | 12-2018 | 31 | 7933 | 7928 | 1715 | 11667 | 10675 | 776 |
| BAKKEN | 11-2018 | 30 | 8728 | 8793 | 2261 | 14128 | 6529 | 7390 |
| BAKKEN | 10-2018 | 31 | 11193 | 11220 | 3463 | 17285 | 15233 | 1836 |
| BAKKEN | 9-2018 | 30 | 9194 | 9192 | 3755 | 13514 | 12565 | 787 |
| BAKKEN | 8-2018 | 20 | 387 | 211 | 1089 | 154 | 0 | 51 |
| BAKKEN | 7-2018 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| BAKKEN | 6-2018 | 26 | 4042 | 4249 | 33 | 6549 | 5644 | 731 |
| BAKKEN | 5-2018 | 1 | 47 | 0 | 48 | 41 | 34 | 0 |
| BAKKEN | 4-2018 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| BAKKEN | 3-2018 | 28 | 2392 | 2359 | 367 | 5555 | 5360 | 0 |
Note the jump in production in late 2018. Same comments as previously made for the earlier well.
Daily Note, Part 2 -- March 12, 2020
Skiing: you've all seen the video of Sophia skiing. Link here. She was thrilled to go skiing. When asked what the best part of ski school is ... and I kid you not ... she said the chocolate chip cookie (singular). Hold that thought.
Beaver Lodge. So, I have now learned they were at a luxury ski resort, something called Beaver Lodge. I'm not sure where it is -- their website is not particularly helpful in that regard --- but based on a few clues, it's located in the Denver, Colorado, area.
So, you're taking your daughter skiing and Beaver Lodge will entice you with a chocolate chip cookie served by a pastry chef wearing a big white hat. I find it absolutely incredible how clever marketers are. Can you image how this was discovered? A focus group with ten five-year-olds after a day of skiing to find out what they liked best.
Product placement: are those Oakley goggles?
Hunch: when the kids all return from spring break, the schools will be closed an additional two weeks. Just saying.
Geico Rock Award: from a reader --
Speaking of priceless:
Yes, he tested positive. Another victim to be awarded the red badge of courage.
Beaver Lodge. So, I have now learned they were at a luxury ski resort, something called Beaver Lodge. I'm not sure where it is -- their website is not particularly helpful in that regard --- but based on a few clues, it's located in the Denver, Colorado, area.
But look at this: this is a screenshot of an-almost full-page photograph of the ski school at Beaver Lodge ... and what do they feature? Gorgeous-looking male ski instructors; pristine snow six feet deep; Glühwein; name-brand ski apparel? Nope -- it's all about the chocolate-chip cookie. Only in America: let's break that down, all numbers rounded, for double occupancy:
- travel expenses: $1,000
- SUV rental: $500
- 3-day stay in a luxury condo: $750
- meals; $300
- ski apparel rental: $250
- new pair of Oakley goggles (can't find last year's); two pair: $$350
- that chocolate chip cookie: priceless
So, you're taking your daughter skiing and Beaver Lodge will entice you with a chocolate chip cookie served by a pastry chef wearing a big white hat. I find it absolutely incredible how clever marketers are. Can you image how this was discovered? A focus group with ten five-year-olds after a day of skiing to find out what they liked best.
Product placement: are those Oakley goggles?
Hunch: when the kids all return from spring break, the schools will be closed an additional two weeks. Just saying.
Geico Rock Award: from a reader --
Rudy Gobert, Utah Jazz, NBA (I don’t follow basketball but read about this and it screams Darwin or Geico award).The nominees for the award are tracked here. Rudy will be added to the list when I get caught up.
Speaking of priceless:
Yes, he tested positive. Another victim to be awarded the red badge of courage.
Daily Note, Part 1 -- March 12, 2020
Contango, also sometimes called forwardation, is a situation
where the futures price (or forward price) of a commodity is higher than
the anticipated spot price .... you may want to get really, really familiar with this term. You're going to hear it a lot over the next few months.
Storage: yesterday, I mentioned that the big story in the 2020 oil shock - market meltdown will be storage. And, right on cue, over on twitter someone mentioned that. Much (most) of this oil is going to be stored off-shore on VLCCs. Already the daily rent prices are surging for these "storage" containers.
Head fake: by the way, have contracts been signed by Saudi Arabia and the European refiners for $25-Brent oil? If so, how far out have the contracts been signed?
Clever like a fox: you know, MBS might be a whole lot smarter than I think. We'll know in six months. I don't think Saudi can afford this to last longer than six months unless they see results. To deliver as much oil as MBS says they will deliver (or produce) --- speaking of which -- already folks over at twitter are pointing out the differences between production and delivering. We’ve talked about that before. The consensus among the experts suggest that to "produce" 13.5 million bopd, Saudi Arabia will be emptying their storage tanks, Right now, Saudi is producing, they say, 9.5 million bopd (compare with 12 million bopd for Russia and 13 million bopd for the US). The only way they get to 13 million bopd this month is emptying their storage tanks. If US shale shuts down -- which both Russia and Saudi Arabia are counting on -- six months from now, there's going to be a huge shortage of oil. Two things: we will see how fast the US shale industry can cut back and then scale back up. We will also see how many survive? Russia can't make up the difference. Clever like a fox: MBS empties his storage tanks; US falters; and, Russia can't make up the difference, and voilà -- a surge in prices. See contango above.
Oil will still be there: my hunch -- we're going to see a lot of mergers and name changes in the next twelve months. A lot of oil companies are going to fail. We will see a lot of oil companies change their names. For example, when Triangle Petroleum Corp became Nine Point Energy. Bankruptcies? A lot stays the same except the name. The oil is still there.
Disclaimer: this is not an investment site. Do not make any investment, financial, career, travel, job, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here.
Travel ban: it speaks volumes that the UK was exempt. And the European travel ban only works if Heathrow, et al, ban flights from Europe. The Chunnel? Or as the French call it, le tunnel sous la Manche. Needs to be closed. JFK? Toast. But, wow, the lines are going to be short. Passport control officers will be as busy as the Maytag repairman.
The wall. You know, that wall on the US southern border is looking better and better every day. Figuratively and literally. By the way, Trump's policy "remain in Mexico," overturned by the Ninth Circus Court, was re-instated by the US Supreme Court. Supreme Court Justice Fagan gets the nod. Good for her.
Best story of the day: that math wizard over at the NYT editorial board says she was humiliated because she is African-American. Wow, she can't dig her hole fast enough. She said after her MSNBC debacle, seen by millions, that she needs to go out and buy a calculator.
Re-posting: seriously -- I thought she had blonde roots. LOL. Hey, it's a joke. Okay, I take it back. I thought she was Norwegian -- who else but a Norski could make such a blunder? By the way, Brian Williams could claim he knew this all along, simply stringing his guest out -- he, the straight man; she, the comedienne.
</
Really Bad Math, Brian Williams
North Dakota, reports its first case, in Ward County. 60-year-old resting comfortably at home.
Red badge of courage: Tom Hanks admits he has it. Will he ever be hired again in Hollywood? Enquiring minds want to know.
I could never keep contango and backwardation straight. I still can't. I might come back to the etymology later. But this is fascinating. Over the thirteen years that I have blogged, whenever we've talked about backwardation and forwardation, we've talked about relatively smooth, incremental, and in the big scheme of things, small moves in either direction. This time, not. We're going to see huge moves to the upside. Period. Dot. Saudi Arabia is not going to give their oil away for $30/bbl for very long -- unless they are bigger idiots than I already think they are. Fifty years of incredible wealth and what do they have to show for it? Huge bank accounts for 15,000 princes but that's about it. Take the oil wealth away and they will be back to a desert kingdom not much unlike what they had when David and Solomon ruled.Roll yield: I assume the "talking heads" on CNBC will eventually get to this one. It will make them sound as smart as Jim Cramer. LOL. Seriously, "jargon" is incredibly important. I've talked about that before. Speaking of Jim Cramer. I wonder how he's doing. I wonder how "Fast Money" folks are doing. I haven't watched CNBC in months. Not gonna start.
Storage: yesterday, I mentioned that the big story in the 2020 oil shock - market meltdown will be storage. And, right on cue, over on twitter someone mentioned that. Much (most) of this oil is going to be stored off-shore on VLCCs. Already the daily rent prices are surging for these "storage" containers.
Head fake: by the way, have contracts been signed by Saudi Arabia and the European refiners for $25-Brent oil? If so, how far out have the contracts been signed?
Clever like a fox: you know, MBS might be a whole lot smarter than I think. We'll know in six months. I don't think Saudi can afford this to last longer than six months unless they see results. To deliver as much oil as MBS says they will deliver (or produce) --- speaking of which -- already folks over at twitter are pointing out the differences between production and delivering. We’ve talked about that before. The consensus among the experts suggest that to "produce" 13.5 million bopd, Saudi Arabia will be emptying their storage tanks, Right now, Saudi is producing, they say, 9.5 million bopd (compare with 12 million bopd for Russia and 13 million bopd for the US). The only way they get to 13 million bopd this month is emptying their storage tanks. If US shale shuts down -- which both Russia and Saudi Arabia are counting on -- six months from now, there's going to be a huge shortage of oil. Two things: we will see how fast the US shale industry can cut back and then scale back up. We will also see how many survive? Russia can't make up the difference. Clever like a fox: MBS empties his storage tanks; US falters; and, Russia can't make up the difference, and voilà -- a surge in prices. See contango above.
Oil will still be there: my hunch -- we're going to see a lot of mergers and name changes in the next twelve months. A lot of oil companies are going to fail. We will see a lot of oil companies change their names. For example, when Triangle Petroleum Corp became Nine Point Energy. Bankruptcies? A lot stays the same except the name. The oil is still there.
Disclaimer: this is not an investment site. Do not make any investment, financial, career, travel, job, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here.
***************************
Not Oil
Travel ban: it speaks volumes that the UK was exempt. And the European travel ban only works if Heathrow, et al, ban flights from Europe. The Chunnel? Or as the French call it, le tunnel sous la Manche. Needs to be closed. JFK? Toast. But, wow, the lines are going to be short. Passport control officers will be as busy as the Maytag repairman.
The wall. You know, that wall on the US southern border is looking better and better every day. Figuratively and literally. By the way, Trump's policy "remain in Mexico," overturned by the Ninth Circus Court, was re-instated by the US Supreme Court. Supreme Court Justice Fagan gets the nod. Good for her.
Best story of the day: that math wizard over at the NYT editorial board says she was humiliated because she is African-American. Wow, she can't dig her hole fast enough. She said after her MSNBC debacle, seen by millions, that she needs to go out and buy a calculator.
Most folks can do that math in their heads. 600 million dollars divided by 300 million people --- drop the millions and it becomes 600 divided by 300 -- drop the two zeroes and it become 6 divided by 3 .... okay, I get it most folks can do that, but apparently not the folks over at NYT editorial board.
By the way, this was not an off-the-cuff mistake among bantering journalists -- this was a tweet that had been out there for some time; folks had plenty of time to study the tweet, and even -- heaven forbid -- fact check it. From her comments, it sounds like the entire NYT editorial board, sitting around the conference table, read the tweet, and went with it. Are you kidding me?
But it's even worse. The woman who somehow connects her African-American heritage with her intelligence says she needs to go out and buy a calculator. Hellooooo! Your smart phone and your Apple Watch each have a calculator app, unless you deleted it because you were told there would be no math.
It should be noted that to date, as far as I can tell, Brian Williams has not said a thing. He's just hoping this goes away.The banana: if true, that was uncalled for, but I have to admit, there is some merit in re-thinking affirmative action -- I saw it in medical school -- think about that for a minute ... the next time the cable guy comes in to put a cardiac stent in your chest ...
Re-posting: seriously -- I thought she had blonde roots. LOL. Hey, it's a joke. Okay, I take it back. I thought she was Norwegian -- who else but a Norski could make such a blunder? By the way, Brian Williams could claim he knew this all along, simply stringing his guest out -- he, the straight man; she, the comedienne.
North Dakota, reports its first case, in Ward County. 60-year-old resting comfortably at home.
Red badge of courage: Tom Hanks admits he has it. Will he ever be hired again in Hollywood? Enquiring minds want to know.
Something's Going On -- Bakken Rigs Continue To Climb -- March 12, 2020
Active rigs:
No wells coming off the confidential list today.
RBN Energy: US LNG exports grow in a weakening, highly uncertain market.
Alexa: The other day I mentioned how much I enjoy jazz on the Amazon/Echo .... oh that reminds me. I seldom listen to Mark Levine but [last night] I actually caught less than a minute of him while changing the car radio from AM to FM. He was ranting about how ATT, Amazon, Comcast, others are cheating us.
I love Amazon. I have no idea what Levin was talking about ... how Amazon was cheating us. If one feels that way, don't shop through Amazon. It's not like there aren't other brick/mortar choices or on-line choices, including Target and Walmart. I love Amazon. Generally lowest prices out there. Couldn't be more convenient. Free shipping if you are willing to wait two days and not nickle and dime Amazon with purchases less than $25 for free shipping. And if you want same day delivery and don't want to worry about the $25 threshold, pay the annual fee for Amazon Prime. And Amazon Prime comes with so much more than free shipping and fast shipping. Prime Video is free with Amazon Prime, for example. But I digress.
Back to Amazon Echo -- which is a one-time $25 cost and no additional subscription costs or fees. Twenty-five bucks? Are you kidding me. One of best deals out there. Can the average 70-year-old tell the difference between a Bose radio and an Echo speaker? I think not. The Echo: $25 and you can talk to it. Bose? A dumb radio and still costs $500. If you want to talk about a company taking advantage of you, Mr Levin, maybe you should take a look at Bose.
Wow, what a digression.
The other day I mentioned how much I enjoy the jazz selections Alexa finds for me. Tonight, while driving home, after switching from AM to FM I was listening to the classical music station, my favorite station at the 7:00 p.m. hour. Tonight, "they" were featuring Franz Schubert.
And, so of course, for the first time, I had Alexa "play Schubert" for me. I'm listening to that in the background while typing this -- 12:01 a.m., March 12, 2020.
I would not have been typing this but I did not want to forget this. While listening to Schubert in the background, I was reading The Hare With Amber Eyes: A Hidden Inheritance, Edmund de Wall, c. 2011.
I read very, very slowly when I'm re-reading a book I really enjoy. I might read just one page at a sitting. Tonight I was doing just that, reading very, very slowly, savoring every bit of writing. I had read the book before. And there it was on page 10:
| $30.97 | 3/12/2020 | 03/12/2019 | 03/12/2018 | 03/12/2017 | 03/12/2016 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Active Rigs | 56 | 64 | 60 | 45 | 32 |
No wells coming off the confidential list today.
RBN Energy: US LNG exports grow in a weakening, highly uncertain market.
New U.S. liquefaction trains and export terminals have added LNG to an oversupplied global market. International gas prices are at their lowest levels in several years, price spreads between the U.S. and destination markets have collapsed and — to make matters even worse — a coronavirus pandemic threatens to undermine LNG demand growth. U.S. LNG exports nevertheless have been increasing with each new liquefaction train that comes onstream, though, mostly because their long-term offtake contracts make cargo liftings relatively insensitive to global prices. The question is, will dire global market conditions somehow undo U.S. LNG production growth? Today, we discuss highlights from our new Drill Down Report on the future of U.S. LNG exports.
U.S. LNG exports have increased rapidly in the past four years. Exports began in early 2016 with the start-up of the first liquefaction train at Cheniere Energy’s Sabine Pass Liquefaction (SPL) in southwestern Louisiana. Since then, Sabine Pass has completed four more trains and five other export terminals, some with multiple trains, have come online. They include Dominion’s single-train Cove Point facility in Maryland; two trains each at Cheniere’s Corpus Christi, TX, terminal and Sempra’s Cameron LNG, also in southwestern Louisiana; two trains at Freeport LNG near Houston; and the first five mini-trains at Elba Liquefaction’s terminal in Georgia. Start-ups in 2019 alone included the Cameron, Corpus Christi, Freeport and Elba projects.
**************************************************
Idle Rambling
Alexa: The other day I mentioned how much I enjoy jazz on the Amazon/Echo .... oh that reminds me. I seldom listen to Mark Levine but [last night] I actually caught less than a minute of him while changing the car radio from AM to FM. He was ranting about how ATT, Amazon, Comcast, others are cheating us.
I love Amazon. I have no idea what Levin was talking about ... how Amazon was cheating us. If one feels that way, don't shop through Amazon. It's not like there aren't other brick/mortar choices or on-line choices, including Target and Walmart. I love Amazon. Generally lowest prices out there. Couldn't be more convenient. Free shipping if you are willing to wait two days and not nickle and dime Amazon with purchases less than $25 for free shipping. And if you want same day delivery and don't want to worry about the $25 threshold, pay the annual fee for Amazon Prime. And Amazon Prime comes with so much more than free shipping and fast shipping. Prime Video is free with Amazon Prime, for example. But I digress.
Back to Amazon Echo -- which is a one-time $25 cost and no additional subscription costs or fees. Twenty-five bucks? Are you kidding me. One of best deals out there. Can the average 70-year-old tell the difference between a Bose radio and an Echo speaker? I think not. The Echo: $25 and you can talk to it. Bose? A dumb radio and still costs $500. If you want to talk about a company taking advantage of you, Mr Levin, maybe you should take a look at Bose.
Wow, what a digression.
The other day I mentioned how much I enjoy the jazz selections Alexa finds for me. Tonight, while driving home, after switching from AM to FM I was listening to the classical music station, my favorite station at the 7:00 p.m. hour. Tonight, "they" were featuring Franz Schubert.
And, so of course, for the first time, I had Alexa "play Schubert" for me. I'm listening to that in the background while typing this -- 12:01 a.m., March 12, 2020.
I would not have been typing this but I did not want to forget this. While listening to Schubert in the background, I was reading The Hare With Amber Eyes: A Hidden Inheritance, Edmund de Wall, c. 2011.
I read very, very slowly when I'm re-reading a book I really enjoy. I might read just one page at a sitting. Tonight I was doing just that, reading very, very slowly, savoring every bit of writing. I had read the book before. And there it was on page 10:
I washed up after lunch while Iggie had his nap, and I would try to do my kanji homework, filling one chequered paper after another with my jerky efforts. I'd stay until Jiro came back from work with the Japanese and English evening newspapers and the croissants for tomorrow's breakfast. Jiro would put on Schubert or jazz and we would have a drink and then I'd leave them be.Wow, out of nowhere, de Waal mentions putting on "Schubert or jazz." What a coincidence. Exactly what Alexa is putting on for me.
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