Prior to the neighboring frack, 500 bbls/month; after the neighboring frack, 5,697 bbls over 14 days which extrapolates to 12,207 bbls/month. Both of the following wells are short laterals.
The well of interest:
23566, 845, Whiting, Kjos 14-13H, one section, Alger, t10/12; cum 98K 9/18; recent production:
Pool
Date
Days
BBLS Oil
Runs
BBLS Water
MCF Prod
MCF Sold
Vent/Flare
BAKKEN
9-2018
14
5697
5470
15432
2388
0
2361
BAKKEN
8-2018
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
BAKKEN
7-2018
2
14
0
17
15
0
11
BAKKEN
6-2018
30
539
690
405
551
0
491
BAKKEN
5-2018
31
543
472
383
559
0
497
BAKKEN
4-2018
30
530
651
323
561
0
502
BAKKEN
3-2018
31
629
480
440
617
0
555
BAKKEN
2-2018
28
585
692
403
563
0
507
BAKKEN
1-2018
31
670
692
487
675
0
613
BAKKEN
12-2017
31
768
719
637
776
0
714
BAKKEN
11-2017
29
509
498
402
531
0
475
BAKKEN
10-2017
31
669
727
459
688
0
626
BAKKEN
9-2017
30
631
485
411
636
0
576
BAKKEN
8-2017
31
660
721
550
667
0
605
BAKKEN
7-2017
31
661
471
433
670
0
610
Now, go back to this neighboring well, which came off the confidential list today:
34700, 552, Whiting, Liebl 31-13-2H, Alger, one section, t9/18; cum 7K 9/18; look at #23566, Kjos 14-13H;
NDIC is reporting 66 active rigs, a jump from the previous 62 a couple of days ago. A reader went through the data and suggests there may be an error -- some accidental "double-counting" of a couple of rigs.
Later, by the way, note the rig count in Montana -- see first comment.
NDIC is reporting 66 active rigs, a jump from the previous 62 a couple
of days ago. A reader went through the data and suggests there may be an
error -- some accidental "double-counting" of a couple of rigs.
Active rigs:
$50.22 oh-oh
11/28/2018
11/28/2017
11/28/2016
11/28/2015
11/28/2014
Active Rigs
66
55
37
64
184
Five new permits:
Operators: Kraken Operating
Fields: Lone Tree Lake (Williams)
Comments: Kraken has permits for a 5-well Rixey pad in 33-157-99; sited in SESE section 33, these wells will run north, opposite and parallel to three producing well; see graphic.
Eleven permits renewed:
CLR (5): two Charlotte permits; one each -- Akron, Chicago, and Thorvald -- all in McKenzie County except for Thorvald which is in Dunn County
Newfield (3): three Sorenson Federal permits in McKenzie County
Oasis: one Fraser Federal permit in Williams County
BR: one Abercrombie permit in McKenzie County
XTO: one Rough Federal permit in McKenzie County
Five producing wells (DUCs) reported as completed:
33906, 842, Petro-Hunt, USA 153-95-9A-15-1HS, Charlson, t10/18; cum --
34700, 552, Whiting, Liebl 31-13-2H, Alger, t9/18; cum 7K 9/18; look at #23566, Kjos 14-13H; see this post;
34699, 1,078, Whiting, Meiers 44-25-2H, Robinson Lake, t9/18; cum 13K 9/18;
34701, 898, Whiting, Stettner 14-13TFH, Alger, t9/18; cum 3K after 16 days;
Initially, the price of WTI didn't show much change, but now, near the close of the trading day, WTI is down 2.6%; down $1.34; and, now just 22 cents above $50/bbl.
We could see WTI going below $50 by the end of the week. From there ... ?
Disclaimer: this is not an investment site. Do not make any investment, financial, job, travel, or relationship decisions based on anything you read here or think you may have read here.
Or maybe the slump in WTI was due to yet another report of more oil. Peak oil? I don't think so. From Platts:
Pemex (Mexico) doubles Ixachi oil and gas reserves to 750 million boe
production to peak at 80,000 beopd
development cast estimated at $1.5 billion
When I first saw the headline that Pemex "doubles" its reserves at Ixachi, I was excited. Then I saw the numbers: max production at 80,000 boepd and, reserves increased to 750 million boe. Not exciting.
The Bakken currently produces about 80,000 boepd in 90 minutes. Bakken reserves: for those with exuberant "feelings" about the Bakken, as much as 50 billion boe, maybe more.
750 million / 50 billion = 1.5%. And that's just the Bakken.
I wonder if we should start measuring pools of oil in "Permians." For example, the Bakken would be estimated to be 0.25 Permians. The Ixahi reserves would be 0.00375 Permians. At 268 billion bbls (wiki), Saudi Arabia's reserves would be 1.34 Permians. I would like to use the Bakken as the "unit of measure" for any number of reasons, but I would be voted off the island -- "everyone" would vote for the "Permian."
And then the day we have a massive carbon tax and no one can afford oil at all -- sort of like the yellow vests in France -- we can take oil off the "Permian standard."
******************************
Update
One day later, November 29, 2018, this update from Bloomberg regarding the Mexico story above:
Today, this story from Bloomberg: Pemex has more than tripled its estimated reserves in its Ixachi field. Data points:
the onshore field in Veracruz is now estimated to contain 1.3 billion boe in proven, probably and possible ("3P") reserves
the story sticks with max production at 80,000 bopd (see Platts above, and my comments
the field is currently producing about 2,000 bpd of condensate; hopes to get to 5,000 bpd of condensate by end of 2019
development
costs for Ixachi: $1.47 billion for 40 wells = I've done the math three
times -- see if you get a different number -- $1.47 billion for 40
wells = $36,750,000 / well
this is Mexico's most important onshore field in 25 years, Pemex says -- if so, Mexico is in a heap of trouble .. 2,000 bbls of condensate a day and that gets them excited
Mexico currently produces about 1.8 million bopd, down from a recent target of 1.95 million bopd
Later, 3:32 p.m. CT:
see first two comments [at the link above] regarding how much better the Bakken wells
have become over the years. Now this very observant comment from
another reader:
The subtle importance of Larne's comment ought not to be
underestimated as it pertains to the Bakken, other shale plays, and
future potential shale targets.
To now drill WAY faster, with
more precision, and MUCH higher recovery factor (20%+ according to some
operators) will vastly expand the US productive acreage.
I
strongly suspect that Helms et al want an updated USGS assessment for
the Bakken as the current recovery rate of OOIP is now 3 to 5 times
higher than earlier when the USGS projected 7+ billion barrels oil
Technically Recoverable Resource (TRR).
Original Post
Speculators buying up mineral rights in eastern Montana for pennies. The article is behind a New York Times paywall.
It's been my experience that if these "efforts" pay off, it is the
grandchildren that benefit. The vast majority of these mineral acres
will never be developed. But they are great for "flipping" to
unsophisticated investors who get caught up in the "Bakken revolution."
Good luck to all.
Disclaimer:
this is not an investment site. Do not make any investment, financial,
job, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or
think you may have read here.
We saw a lot of this in
North Dakota some decades ago. My hunch is that Harold Hamm picked up a
lot of minerals in North Dakota many, many years ago, well before the
boom.
This morning at Murphy (Walmart), regular unleaded was selling for $1.919/gallon.
By the way, do we need to say "regular unleaded" any more. Is there anywhere in the US where they are selling "leaded" gasoline?
I digress.
Gasoline is very, very inexpensive (except in California) and yet the demand ....
It looks like there might be a subtle change -- the four-week average is less than the four-week average on year ago, but gasoline demand this past week was slightly more than gasoline demand for the same one-week period a year ago (at least if I'm reading the numbers correctly):
**************************************
The Christmas Page
Our little Charlie Brown Christmas tree now has a string of lights. I think it will look better once we put a bulb or two on it.
35706, 2,382, Hess, SC-Hoving-154-95-1003H-7, Truax, t10/19; cum 142K 12/20; a 37K month; cum 161K 12/21;
35705, 2,716, Hess, SC-Hoving-154-98-1003H-8, Truax, t11/19; cum 173K 12/20; a 34K month; cum 201K 12/21;
March 13, 2019: after neighboring wells fracked, this well showed a bit of a jump in production --
22946, 1,122, Hess, SC-Hoving 154-98-1003H-1, Truax, t9/12; cum 381K 12/20; see jump in production below; cum 408K 12/21;
Recent production:
Pool
Date
Days
BBLS Oil
Runs
BBLS Water
MCF Prod
MCF Sold
Vent/Flare
BAKKEN
1-2019
31
4939
5219
3587
8872
264
8307
BAKKEN
12-2018
31
5067
5045
4117
8714
3957
4452
BAKKEN
11-2018
20
2789
2499
3095
3998
672
3140
BAKKEN
10-2018
1
8
0
1
28
28
0
BAKKEN
9-2018
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
BAKKEN
8-2018
4
192
0
111
462
381
41
BAKKEN
7-2018
31
2069
2112
491
4692
4351
31
Original Post
This well suggested that the SC-Hoving wells have been fracked. Note that it was a great well that came off line in August, 2018, and then in September, 2018, came back on line (yes, just that one day). I checked one other neighboring SC-Hoving wells and it was fracked in September, 2018. I assume the other SC-Hoving wells have been fracked.
This well:
22946, 1,122, Hess, SC-Hoving 154-98-1003H-1, Truax, t9/12; cum see above; recent production --
Pool
Date
Days
BBLS Oil
Runs
BBLS Water
MCF Prod
MCF Sold
Vent/Flare
BAKKEN
10-2018
1
8
0
1
0
0
0
BAKKEN
9-2018
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
BAKKEN
8-2018
4
192
0
111
462
381
41
BAKKEN
7-2018
31
2069
2112
491
4692
4351
31
BAKKEN
6-2018
30
1814
2123
451
3919
3244
384
BAKKEN
5-2018
31
2080
2212
604
4511
3623
582
BAKKEN
4-2018
29
1938
1898
463
3880
1666
1940
BAKKEN
3-2018
31
2293
1981
504
4078
3410
365
BAKKEN
2-2018
28
1622
1677
760
4538
3832
454
BAKKEN
1-2018
31
2394
2512
637
4848
2523
2033
The graphic:
The other wells in the graphic (will be updated when the completions are reported):
29690, 1,745, Hess, SC-Bingeman-154-98-0904H-6, Truax, t11/18; cum 173K 12/20; maintaining nice production; cum 217K 12/21;
30633, 1,902, Hess, SC-Hoving-LW-154-98-1003H-1, Truax, t11/18-; cum 199K 7/20; off line, 7/20; cum 227K 12/21;
29689, 878, Hess, SC-Bingeman-154-98-0904H-5, Traux, t7/15; cum 200K 12/20; off line as of 7/18; back on line as of 11/18; cum 210K 12/21;
29688, 779, Hess, SC-Bingeman-154-98-0904H-4, Traux, t8/15; cum 162K 12/20; off line as of 8/18; back on line as of 3/19; cum 176K 12/21;
29687, 985, Hess, SC-Bingeman-154-98-0904H-3, Traux, t7/15; cum 124K 12/20 -- recent production; note that is has just come back on line; cum 141K 12/21;
Pool
Date
Days
BBLS Oil
Runs
BBLS Water
MCF Prod
MCF Sold
Vent/Flare
BAKKEN
10-2018
14
701
577
2801
0
0
0
BAKKEN
9-2018
0
0
0
0
37
37
0
BAKKEN
8-2018
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
BAKKEN
7-2018
0
0
66
0
0
0
0
BAKKEN
6-2018
9
195
350
343
1072
1042
13
BAKKEN
5-2018
31
1085
1239
1190
4768
4663
43
BAKKEN
4-2018
28
1060
993
1338
4055
3333
667
BAKKEN
3-2018
31
1210
1232
1351
4050
3951
44
BAKKEN
2-2018
28
1125
851
1385
3097
3025
18
BAKKEN
1-2018
6
246
304
431
618
603
3
29686, 1,424, Hess, SC-Bingeman-154-98-0904H-2, Truax, t7/15; cum 258K 12/20; -- recent production (note: it is currently off line): back on line as of 1/19;
Pool
Date
Days
BBLS Oil
Runs
BBLS Water
MCF Prod
MCF Sold
Vent/Flare
BAKKEN
10-2018
0
0
213
0
0
0
0
BAKKEN
9-2018
0
0
0
0
37
37
0
BAKKEN
8-2018
12
554
1469
683
2960
2864
1
BAKKEN
7-2018
30
2435
2037
1532
8646
8386
73
BAKKEN
6-2018
30
2170
1966
1339
8569
7819
620
BAKKEN
5-2018
30
2592
3010
1012
6714
6509
119
34169, 1,426, Hess, SC-Hoving-154-98-1003H-4, Truax, t11/18; cum 225K 2/20; high production maintained; off line 12/21; cum 265K 12/21;
34168, S1,450, Hess, SC-Hoving-154-98-1003H-3, Truax, t11/18; cum 317K 12/20; high production maintained; cum 358K 12/21;
34167, 1,550, Hess, SC-Hoving-154-98-1003H-2, Truax, t10/18; cum 248K 12/20; high production maintained; cum 282K 12/21;
35706, 2,382, Hess, SC-Hoving-154-95-1003H-7, Truax, t10/19; cum 142K 12/20;a 37K month; cum 161K 12/21;
35705, 2,716, Hess, SC-Hoving-154-98-1003H-8, Truax, t11/19; cum 1173K 12/10; a 34K month; cum 201K 12/21;
March 22, 2020: incredibly awful wells, look at the size of the fracks and still lousy wells; I noted this date that two wells have just come off line;
Original Post
The well:
20600, 1,831, XTO, FBIR Blackmedicine 24X-21B, Heart Butte, 33-025-01341, t6/12; cum 430K 9/20; recent production profile, and of course it has not been re-fracked:
Pool
Date
Days
BBLS Oil
Runs
BBLS Water
MCF Prod
MCF Sold
Vent/Flare
BAKKEN
9-2018
30
5859
5884
7884
2728
2625
0
BAKKEN
8-2018
30
5656
5419
8236
2834
2746
0
BAKKEN
7-2018
20
3625
3492
9876
1546
967
541
BAKKEN
6-2018
3
127
448
0
42
17
24
BAKKEN
5-2018
28
10335
10545
7413
4475
778
3628
BAKKEN
4-2018
28
14341
13877
9641
6571
2986
3455
BAKKEN
3-2018
6
1258
1448
2384
583
372
185
BAKKEN
2-2018
28
6596
6651
15613
3037
640
2297
BAKKEN
1-2018
16
5667
6195
9632
2842
762
2003
BAKKEN
12-2017
22
8169
7371
12287
4280
289
3829
BAKKEN
11-2017
8
1340
1530
3870
688
107
566
BAKKEN
10-2017
31
9071
9266
13613
5310
1826
3409
BAKKEN
9-2017
30
5755
5734
5749
4283
664
3577
BAKKEN
8-2017
15
3698
3286
1024
2534
1484
1010
BAKKEN
7-2017
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
BAKKEN
6-2017
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
Production before the well went off-line:
BAKKEN
2-2016
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
BAKKEN
1-2016
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
BAKKEN
12-2015
15
1852
2077
1137
1083
199
701
BAKKEN
11-2015
30
3945
3924
1880
2457
1968
116
BAKKEN
10-2015
31
4240
4252
2050
2690
2278
12
BAKKEN
9-2015
30
4142
4237
1998
2511
2126
100
BAKKEN
8-2015
31
4350
4213
2189
2674
2329
52
BAKKEN
7-2015
31
4431
4405
2281
2647
2255
100
BAKKEN
6-2015
30
4541
4581
2262
2610
2300
18
BAKKEN
5-2015
31
4935
5224
2507
2693
2365
26
The graphic:
The other wells:
32707, 296, XTO, FBIR Blackmedicine 24X-21EXH, t9/17; cum 173K 9/20;
32302, 1,341, XTO, FBIR Blackmedicine 24X-21AXD, t8/17; cum 148K 9/20;
32283, 222, XTO, FBIR Blackmedicine 24X-21E, t9/17; cum 85K 9/20;
32290, 419, XTO, FBIR Blackmedicine 24X-21A, t10/17; cum 137K 9/20;
32291, IA/1,146, XTO, FBIR Blackmedicine 24X-21F, 40 stages, 7.4 million lbs; Three Forks, t8/17; cum 43K 11/19; off line 11/19; remains off line 9/20;
32279, 2 (no typo), XTO, FBIR Blackmedicine 24X-21G, t10/17; cum 68K 9/20;
32280, 702, XTO, FBIR Blackmedicine 24X-21C, t10/17; cum 122K 9/20;
32281,560, XTO, FBIR Blackmedicine 24X-21H, t9/17; cum 129K 9/20;
32282, 872, XTO, FBIR Blackmedicine 24X-21CXD, t10/17; cum 179K 9/20;
32472, IA/529, XTO, FBIR Blackmedicine 24X-21D, 60 stages; 22 million lbs, middle Bakken; t9/17; cum 129K 9/20; off line 12/19; remains off line 1/20; back on line 2/20;
More than 7% over the five-year average -- and the five-year average includes 2014 - 2016 when Saudi opened the spigots and dumped as much as oil on the market as they could to kill the US shale sector.
both gasoline and distillate fuel production slightly higher than their 10.0 and 5.0 - million benchmark
imports slightly more than same time last year -- refineries need heavy oil to balance light oil; California needs imported oil
jet fuel produced: up 4.1% compared with same time last year
by the way, that "five-year average" continues to increase. One needs to look at the historical "norm" -- which for me is 350 million bbls -- 450 is 28.5% greater than the 350-million benchmark
Number of weeks it will take to "re-balance" at this rate:
Week
Date
Change w-o-w
In Storage
Weeks To RB
Week 0
November 21, 2018
4.9
446.9
N/A
Week 1
November 28, 2018
3.6
450.5
N/A
When we started following the first "re-balancing act" we started with 529 million bbls of oil in US inventory. So, we're well below that "529" but at 447 million last week and 450 million this week, we are .... well ... trending in the wrong direction.
And the problem no one is talking about: no matter how low the price of oil goes, the shale operators have no choice but to keep putting oil in the pipelines -- they must meet their contractual obligations.
November 29, 2018: the Bill & Hill show -- we will get to the ZeroHedge link in a second, but whatever happened to "civic duty"? I would have thought a former president would have some "class" and speak publicly at nation's high schools and colleges for free. But then again, Ulysses S Grant found himself in trouble financially at the end of his life and with the help of Mark Twain wrote an incredible memoir which left him/his family financially sound. So perhaps it's fine. But we don't see the Bushes do it? I don't know. Maybe they do. But Barack, Bill, Hill -- all sort of pathetic -- now that link from ZeroHedge. Even at $6.55/seat, the stadium was 83% empty. Photos and story at the link.
Unfortunately, as the image above shows, the supposed-power-couple's draw is starting to fade as the Daily Mail reports that just 3,300 tickets were sold in the Scotiabank Arena in downtown Toronto, which holds 19,800.
If the costs of staging the tour end up costing more than the "gate," one wonders if the tour will be curtailed? Bill & Hill may have made a mistake announcing the entire tour schedule. It might have been better to keep it "open-ended."
Original Post
A huge "thank you" to Don. I was looking for this information; couldn't find it. Here it is, the real price folks are paying to attend the Hillary-Bill show -- as opposed to the advertise price ... LOL.
From The Daily Mail which seems to follow US current events better than any US media outlet:
Bill and Hillary Clinton are beginning a paid speaking tour
Their first 'Evening with the Clintons' event is at the Scotiabank Arena in Toronto
Interviewed by Canadian politician and diplomat Frank McKenna, the Deputy Chair TD Bank Group
Bill Clinton said the U.S. had 'compromised' its moral leadership in the world under Trump
Hillary Clinton had a short coughing spell about an hour into the talk
Live Nation bills as 'one-of-a-kind conversation'
The
tour began on a day with major developments in the Russia probe on the
heels of auto plant closings announced in the U.S. and Canada
There were empty seats both in upper level seats and on the ground floor, where tickets were pricier
One ticket was going for $6.55 in the final minutes before the event
Hillary: 'We have a president and those closest to him who have their own personal commercial interests' in Saudi Arabia
There is no risk whatsoever of any of these events being sold out. No reason whatsoever to buy tickets ahead of time. Walk up at the last minute and pay $6.55. My hunch: a lot of Democratic foundations will give away free tickets.
Advice: if they want a larger crowd, serve free food.
If they want a standing-room-crowd, serve free beer.
Wow, can you imagine if you paid $500 / ticket when they first went on sale, and you attended the event sitting next to some yuppie who paid $6.55? Wow. Is "pissed-off" spelled with one "s" or two?
*****************************************
Global Warming
For the archives, otherwise I would not post and I would not care. Link here.
******************************* Back in 1958: We Worried About The Coming Ice Age
******************************
Flake
The mainstream media continues to float this trope: that Trump's judicial nominations are in trouble now that Senator Jeff Flake's attempt to pass a "protect-Mueller" failed. Flake said he would not support any more Trump judicial nominations if his bill failed to pass, bringing the US Senate to only 50 GOP members that might support Trump nominations.
The state of Missouri just re-elected their GOP US Senator which means as of January 20, 2019, the GOP will widen their edge -- albeit very slightly -- to 53 - 47 in the US Senate. I doubt there are many nominations to vote on between now and January 20, 2019, with all the holidays the US Senators will soon be taking.
The bigger issue: funding the government. By the way, all that talk about shutting down the government over funding for "the wall"? All political theater. In two separate funding bills, Congress has authorized slightly more than $3 billion for "the wall." You can get a lot done with $3 billion -- especially if it's just concertina wire.
Regardless, it has been stated many times that "the wall," in fact, is being built.
And regardless of whether the spending bill is approved or not, apparently 75% of the budget has been funded in previous votes. Trump will have lots of fun explaining why he's mad at GM for laying for about 3,000 workers in the US just before Christmas, and then he, himself, shuts down the US government, laying off many poverty-paid public employees just before that same holiday -- a holiday Trump says is very, very important to him.
**********************************
Vaudeville
Burns and Allen
Bill and Hillary -- An Evening With
Algore -- a 24-hour telethon to save Earth
Schumer and Pelosi -- half the act is back