Showing posts with label Gasoline Demand. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Gasoline Demand. Show all posts

Wednesday, April 23, 2025

California: Valero Plans To Shut Down Or Significantly Reduce Its Larger Refinery In Northern California By The End Of April, 2026 -- April 23, 2025

Locator: 48491CALIFORNIA.

 Updates

April 26, 2025: WSJ opinion. Waste of ink.

Original Post

Link here. 

Link here: https://www.foxnews.com/politics/gop-lawmaker-warns-likely-move-blue-state-will-make-gas-prices-skyrocket. You will have to "cut and paste" that link.

 

This is a fascinating story. I will come back to this story later if I have the energy.

To put this in perspective: 

And this:

At best, this will only result in an increase in the price of gasoline in California. My hunch: if necessary, the state of California will allow another operator to come in to operate the refinery.

Critical mass:

The loss of refinery capacity in the state of California is a fascinating one. Social media has no clue.

My not-ready-for-prime-time initial thoughts on the news yesterday that Valero was going to close its large refinery in northern California in early 2026. I sent this to the reader who sent me the link to the story in the first place:

This is an incredibly fascinating story. There’s a phenomenon in math/physics — the phenomenon of critical mass — and we see it in many instances, including nuclear weapons. LOL.
But, for me, the best example is a brain tumor. The brain is encased in a non-expandable skull, unlike the abdomen. An abdominal mass can grow to an unbelievable size and won’t cause any problem simply due to its size. A brain tumor is completely different. It can grow in size to a very limited extent, often resulting in no signs or symptoms whatsoever, before it reaches critical mass and the individual literally goes into a coma, seizes, or dies in a space of hours, without immediate surgical relief of that intracranial pressure. 

Likewise, a significant shortage of gasoline occurring in a very short period of time, in a state already with the highest gasoline prices in the United States, won’t simply result in a gradual increase in price. Early on it will be obvious there’s a shortage of gasoline when service stations don’t receive their usual allotment. It will start with the small independents, first in the rural areas and the quickly in the large cities. One will start to see plastic bags placed on gasoline pump nozzles with "out of order" advisories. At that point, it’s over. Panic will set in. People will keep their gas tanks full, exacerbating the situation. 

All things being equal, if nothing changes between now and the refinery closure I give California one month before it becomes an unimaginable state — and then a national — emergency. 

Gasoline will be rationed and California will be back to gas lines. Focusing on the price of gasoline is the wrong metric. It won’t be price; it will be panic.

I don’t think California has the port facilities necessary to import that much gasoline.

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In Other California News

San Francisco Centre is a ghost town. Link here. Link here.

Price of gasoline in California: link here.

Phillips 66 will cease operations at its refinery in Los Angelese this year. Link here.

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Fortunately Everyone In California Has An EV


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More From California

Oscar Eduardo Ortega-Anguiano, 43, was driving drunk, high, and speeding at nearly 100mph on the 405 freeway in Orange County in November 2021, when he crashed into a car being driven by a young couple, 19-year-olds Anya Varfolomeev and Nicholay Osokin, killing them both as they burned alive.
  • illegal immigrant who already has been deported twice is going to be released again 
  • in 2022, OEOA was convicted of two counts of gross vehicular manslaughter while intoxicated
  • in spring 2022, he was convicted of two counts of gross vehicular manslaughter while intoxicated, and he was sentenced to 10 years in prison
  • will be released six years early, unless state reconsiders;
  • will likely be handed over to ICE though "sanctuary city / sanctuary state" iss ues come into play
  • his previous criminal convictions include burglary in 2005; vehicle theft in 2007; and battery on spouse with kidnapping in 2014," the statement from ICE explains.
  • good like finding anyone other than Fox News reporting this story.

Thursday, October 17, 2024

Director's Cut, October, 2024, Data -- Posted

Locator: 48612B.

EIA weekly petroleum report: link here.

  • US crude oil in storage: 5% below the five-year average -- where it's been for months.
  • refiners: 87.7% -- very low, but where it's been for awhile.
  • jet fuel supplied up an astounding 10.4% y/y

Gasoline demand, link here. Unremarkable.

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Back to the Bakken

Director's Cut, October, 2024, data. Link here.

Crude oil production:

  • July, 2024: 1,169,499 bopd
  • August, 2024: 1,179,131 bopd

Natural gas capture: 95%.

Wednesday, August 21, 2024

Weekly EIA Petroleum Report And Gasoline Demand -- August 21, 2024

Locator: 48478OIL.

The weekly EIA petroleum report: link here.

  • US crude oil in storage: 5% below the five-year average
  • refiners: 92.3%
  • jet fuel supplied: 3.2% greater than the same four-week period last year

Gasoline demand: link here.

Wednesday, August 14, 2024

EIA Weekly Petroleum Report, Gasoline Demand -- August 14, 2024

Locator: 48413B.

EIA weekly petroleum report, link here:

  • crude oil in storage: 5% below historical average;
  • refiners: 91.5%
  • jet fuel: up 16% y/y

Gasoline demand, link here:

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Back to the Bakken
 

WTI: $76.98.

Active rigs: 37.

One new permit, #41025:

  • 41025, Grayson Mill, L And E 9-4 5H, Ragged Butte, NWNW 15-151-101, 
    • to be sited 349 FNL and 425FWL;

One permit canceled:

  • 40894, Prairie Horizon Land Development, Grasshopper 1, Stark Co

One producing well (a DUC) reported as completed:

  • 39677, 527, Petro-Hunt, Burian 144-98-14B-23-3H, Billings County;

Wednesday, July 31, 2024

Six New Permits; WPX With Four More MHA FBIR Permits; Four DUCs Reported As Completed -- July 31, 2024

Locator: 48283B.

Updates

Oh, never mind. There's an election this year. 

Original Post

In the news today:

Weekly EIA petroleum report, link here:

  • oil in commercial storage: 4% below historical norm;
  • refiners: 90.1%;
  • airlines: 1.2%.

Gasoline demand, link here:

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Back to the Bakken


WTI: $77.91.

Active rigs: 40.

Six new permits, #40983 - #40988, inclusive:

  • Operators: WPX (4); MRO, BR
  • Fields: Heart Buttte (Dunn County); Wolf Bay (Dunn); Lone Butt (Dunn)
  • Comments
    • WPX has permits for four MHA FBIR wells NENW 18-149-91;
      • to be sited between 1190 FNL and 1236 FNL and between 1993 FWL and 1916 FWL
    • MRO has a permit for a Smith USA well, NENW 16-146-92, 
      • to be sited 966 FNL and 2480 FWL;
    • BR has a permit for a Tilton well, SENW 18-147-97, 
      • to be sited 2242 FNL and 2494 FWL

Four producing wells (DUCs) reported as completed:

  • 40111, 1,770, CLR, Lundberg Federal 5-8H1,
  • 40243, 3,128, MRO, KGC 31-6H,
  • 40278, 756, CLR, Cuskelly 5-7H,
  • 40279, 647, CLR, Thorvald 5-6H,

Thursday, July 11, 2024

Weekly EIA Petroleum Report -- July 11, 2024

Locator: 48104OIL. 

EIA:

 
EIA weekly petroleum report:

  • refiners: 95.4%
  • jet fuel deliverty: increased by a paltry 0.8% y/y

Thursday, July 4, 2024

Gasoline Demand -- Week Prior To July 4th -- July 4, 2024

Locator: 48044GASOLINEDEMAND.

Gasoline demand, link here:

Weekly EIA petroleum report, link here:

  • refiners: 93.5%
  • jet fuel supplied, down 1.3% from previous year

Wednesday, June 26, 2024

Micron Earnings After Hours -- June 26, 2024

Locator: 48044TECH.

Link here. 

We'll follow Micron / MU after-market and see who got the "early release." LOL.

All three indices close in the green.

Immediately after the close: MU drops 10.09%; drops $14.36.

So, does someone know something or simply anxiety, taking profits? 

Yup, the numbers are out and CNBC will report as soon as they see the numbers.

Must be bad.

Wow.

Now, down 6.93%; down $9.86.

EPS of 53 cents are the expectation. And, again expectation, revenue of $6.67 billion, up 77.9% y/y.

Here are the numbers:

  •  a beat on top and bottom lines.

Oh, give me a break.

  • And guidance roughly in line.

Good. 

  • revenue: 6.81B vs $6.67B
  • EPS: 0.62 vs 51

"In-line" guidance is the "new miss" for tech stock. 

Oh, give me a break. This is awesome. 

As minutes go by, clawing back initial losses.

From CNBC:


Amazon: $2 trillion market cap for first time today. And growing. Fast.

Speaks volumes:

  • BRK: 40% is AAPL;
  • AAPL surges today -- one of the best days in weeks; and, yet,
  • BRK ends up closing well in the red:

Summit: still a long way to go but the map is cool. Link here. The regulators okay'ed it but now it will end up in court.

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Gasoline Demand

Link here.

EIA weekly petroleum report: unremarkable.

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Back to the Bakken

Active rigs: 36.

WTI: $80.65.

Three new permits: #40875 - #40877, inclusive

  • Operator: Oasis
  • Field: Indian Hill (McKenzie)
  • Comments:
    • Oasis has three Barnes Federal permits, SWSE 11-152-102, 
      • to be sited 2389 / 2390 FEL with one 420 FSL, 387 FSL, and the third 321 FSL

Ten permits renewed:

  • Crescent Point (6): Manchuk (2); Campbell; Chase Douglas; and Holmes (2); Winner and Blue Ridge, Williams County;
  • Zavanna (4): four Collie permits, Stony Creek, Williams County

Two producing wells (DUCs) reported as completed:

  • 40025, 4,084, MRO, McKay 11-13H, Killdeer oil field, Dunn County;
  • 40091, 455, Whiting, Sanish Bay W 5293 34-1 3T, Mountrail, County;

Friday, June 21, 2024

Weekly Petroleum Report; Gasoline Demand -- June 21, 2024

Locator: 47850WTI.

Weekly EIA productivity report: for those interested; I'm not.

Gasoline demand: link here. The big story here? Whether gasoline demand over July 4, 2024, will set a record? To do so, would need to trend toward 10 million bpd. I will be thrilled if 2024 simply beats 2023 numbers.

Tuesday, May 28, 2024

Gasoline Demand, Chinese Carbon Emissions -- May 28, 2024

Locator: 47973WTI.

When I get caught up, I'm going to touch on two subjects: EVs and China's carbon emissions.

Gasoline demand: overall gasoline demand is well below historical norms. What's going on? Some of my readers tell me it's due to EV penetration. LOL. Decreased gasoline demand in the US has almost nothing to do with EV penetration. So what's the real reason. CAFE standards that have been in place for decades are starting to make a difference. How old is the average car in the US? 

Yeah, that old.  

Why does it matter?

With or without CAFE standards, the data:

1970 - 2000, from 12 to 17 mpg (I don't know how they got the 29% number):

2024, to 28 mpg, from 20 to 28, 1.4 x 20 = 28. Does that mean a 40% increase? 8/20 = 40 percent.

Hybrids: marginal effect at best.

Going forward:


China carbon emissions
: Bloomberg is now suggesting that China has "won the carbon war." I'll talk about this later.

Wednesday, May 15, 2024

Gasoline Demand Continues To Disappoint Fossil Fuel Investors, Refiners -- May 15, 2024

Locator: 47166B.

Link here.

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The Movie Page 

"Quentin Tarantino on Clint Eastwood's Dirty Harry" -- from eight days ago.

  • from Quentin Tarentino's book, Cinema Speculation, which I have on my "top shelf" and have read.

"How Pulp Fiction Revolutionized Cinema" -- from three days ago.

Thursday, April 4, 2024

Oh-Oh -- Here We Go -- April 4, 2024

Locator: 46918B.

Pay attention to Lousiana Light Sweet -- some see LLS as a proxy for Bakken (also light sweet). Difference of course is proximity to refiners.

Permian: existing wells break even at $37.

Gasoline demand, link here:

Tickers at the close:

  • CVX: up slightly; pretty much flat
  • DVN: down 23 cents;
  • MPC: up $1.32;
  • EPD: down 12 cents;

Market spooked by one of the Fed presidents saying "what's wrong with higher for longer?"

Wednesday, February 28, 2024

Weekly EIA Petroleum Report -- February 28, 2024

Locator: 46933GASOLINEDEMAND.

Link here.

  • US crude oil: increased by 4.2 million bbls; 447.2 million bbls; one-percent below the average;
  • imports: 2.3% more than last year
  • refiners: 81.5%; last week it had a 80-handle, so somewhat better, but probably not significantly different
  • distillate fuel decreased a bit; inventories are 8% below the average and spring planting season underway
  • jet fuel supplied was up 2.9% from same period last year.

US gasoline demand: 

Wednesday, February 14, 2024

Cisco Systems -- CSCO; Gasoline Demand; Market Wrap -- February 14, 2024

Locator: 46820MARKET.

Market Wrap

Headlines:

  • BRK: releases 14F for 4Q23; see below. Trivial. Six months old. Means nothing to "average 'mom-and-pop" investor"; money managers know that.
  • CSCO: to cut 5% of workforce; guides lower; that's not unusual for CSCO. Trivial.
  • SpaceX: has filed to move incorporation from Delaware to Texas. Neither trivial, not trivial; simply interesting.
  • Nvidia: market cap passes Alphabet and Amazon; now third most valuable US company. Not trivial. MOJO, FOMO, YOLO wouldn't go on this long if there wasn't fire where there's smoke;
    • someone or "someones" know something the rest of us don't
    • money managers flummoxed
  • industrial sector surged in today's market; not trivial, or was sector so beaten down, nowhere to go but up? Trivial? Hard to say what it means; could just as easily be a head fake;
  • CPI: report yesterday, trivial. 
    • Not trivial: the PCE to be reported Feb 29, 2024 (yes, it's leap year)
  • Japan: economy unexpectedly slips into recession, hurt by week domestic demand. Not trivial. 
    • both Japan and Singapore miss GDP expectations; not trivial.
  • Lyft: CEO takes responsibility for guidance error. Trivial. Story is over. Investors have moved on.
  • US mortgage rates surge again: JPow and Fed now their own worst enemy; not trivial; 
  • deflation, where prices fell in January, 2024; most important chart you can look at tonight;
  • oil prices give up advance as US crude stockpile surges; lots of interesting statistics; not seeing any analysis; superficial, energy seems to be suggesting slowdown, if not outright recession; not trivial.
    • gasoline demand: very, very concerning -- second only to housing sector as a leading indicator; not trivial:

Gasoline demand:

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Weekly EIA Petroleum Report

Weekly, link here.

  • US crude oil in storage: 2% below 5-year average
  • US crude oil inventories: increased by a whopping 12 million bbls
  • imports: averaging 7% less than last year
  • refiners: dropping even more -- now down to 80%
  • distillates: 7% below five-year average
  • diesel is going to be the big story this summer
    gasoline inventories a wash: total motor gasoline, down; finished gasoline up
  • jet fuel supplied: up 1.5% y/y

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Cisco

4Q23: A beat on both top line and bottom line, and everything after that, blah, blah, blah.  And then increases the quarterly dividend by a penny. Whoo-hoo!

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BRK's Quarterly 14F Released

BRK: top 4Q23 moves. Link here.

  • sold a bit of AAPL; 1% of his AAPL holdings;
  • slashed stakes in Paramount (PARA) -- one of his recent mistakes (buying PARA in the first place); headfake for those who follow Buffett
  • continued to slash stakes in HP (HPQ)
  • bought CVX; added 15.8 million shares; after cutting CVX positions in previous quarters;
  • making big commitment to Sirius XM (SIRI)
  • exited four stocks, including Brazilian fintech StoneCo (STNE)

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The Market Today

The market pretty much recovered much / all of what "it" lost yesterday.

Across the board, "everyone" said the market reaction was overdone.

Across the board, "everyone" agreed that the "inflation figure" was due almost solely to "rent" and that figure was incorrectly calculated, based on false data and/or wrong assumptions.

Across the board, "everyone" agreed that regardless of the "correct" inflation figure, inflation is heading down. 

General consensus, it no long matters "when" the Fed cuts. What matters is whether the Fed starts cutting this year.

So, bottom line: all three indices traded nicely into the green. Not only that, the industrial sector (e.g., CAT), hit all-time intra-day highs. Whoo-hoo!

The big pullback allowed for a nice buying opportunity yesterday for the nimble and quick, daring to jump over the proverbial candle stick. LOL.

On another note, the CPI is not even JPow's favorite inflation data point. Behind closed doors testifying before US Congress today JPow said he was not "concerned" (or something to that effect) about the CPI reported yesterday.  He and the Fed favor the PCE.


And there's more. The PCE is likely to come in at 2.0, maybe 1.9. Imagine what happens if the PCE comes in with a 1-handle.

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Earlier

Screenshots of earlier notes from the blog on market action the past 24 hours: