Have Folks Underestimated This Drug? May 7, 2023

Locator: 44591BIGPHARMA.

I remember years ago when physicians caring for adolescents began prescribing birth control pills to prevent / treat  / manage acne. The prescribing was accepted by parents as long as the BCPs weren't prescribed for birth control.

Is Ozempic about to follow suit?

Too bad this article is behind a paywall.

First question after reading the article: who has the patent on Ozempic? When I saw it, I realized I had looked it up before.

50-40-5-5.

I'm going to have to ask my PhD nurse daughter who treats patients with behavioral disorders what she knows / thinks about Ozempic.

Let's see if readers can guess the next most important question (as an investor), and the the question that follows from that.

No Recession Yet -- Saudi's GDP Maintains Growth -- And, Apparently Not All Oil -- May 7, 2023

Locator: 44590SAUDI.

Politics: Trump -- Georgia -- 2020 -- May 7, 2023

Locator: 44589TRUMP.  

May 7, 2023: at least eight Trump electors have accepted immunity in the Georgia investigation. At The Washington Post. Again, TWP paywalls "everything," but not this story.

At least eight of the 16 Georgia Republicans who convened in December 2020 to declare Donald Trump the winner of the presidential contest despite his loss in the state have accepted immunity deals from Atlanta-area prosecutors investigating alleged election interference, according to a lawyer for the electors.  

Prosecutors with the office of Fulton County District Attorney Fani T. Willis (D) told the eight that they will not be charged with crimes if they testify truthfully in her sprawling investigation into efforts by Trump, his campaign and his allies to overturn Joe Biden’s victory in Georgia, according to a brief filed Friday in Fulton County Superior Court by defense attorney Kimberly Bourroughs Debrow.

Willis has said that the meeting of Trump’s electors on December 14, 2020, despite Republican Gov. Brian Kemp’s certification of Biden’s win, is a key target of her investigation, along with Trump’s phone calls to multiple state officials and his campaign’s potential involvement in an unauthorized breach of election equipment in rural Coffee County, Georgia.

Georgia was among seven states where the Trump campaign and local GOP officials arranged for alternate electors to convene with the stated purpose of preserving legal recourse while election challenges made their way through the courts.

Among the questions both Willis and federal investigators have explored is whether the appointment of alternate electors and the creation of elector certificates broke the law.

Another question is whether Trump campaign officials and allies initiated the strategy as part of a larger effort to overturn Biden’s overall victory during the counting of electoral votes on January 6, 2021.

There are so many story lines here, I won't even begin. 

The downfall of Donald Trump: added as a theme for 2022. The ongoing story is tracked here.

TSM -- May 7, 2023

Locator: 44588CHIPS.  

Chips, semiconductor: link here.

In light of the comments made at the Berkshire Hathaway annual meeting, here are some recent TSM links:

• NikkeiAsia: not yet done investing in Japan.
• Yahoo!Finance: one of the most important companies in the world.
• Motley Fool: two dividend-paying tech stocks to buy right now.
• Top Greater China fund: raises concerns.
• SeekingAlpha: TSM vs INTC, a clear winner.
• Trefis: INTC vs several others (DE, PFE, JPM, COP, GS).

It certainly appears BRK got "spooked" by one of two different issues regarding TSM, maybe both. More on that later.

It also appears BRK may have made a significant addition this past quarter to one of its other tech holdings. We'll confirm that later, one way or the other.

The Great Reset -- May 7, 2023

Locator: 44587ECON. 

The last act this last week was played out Saturday, May 6, 2023, Berkshire Hathaway's annual meeting.

Berkshire kicked off Saturday’s proceedings by releasing its results for the first quarter. The company reported net income of $35.5 billion, or $24,377 a class A share equivalent. That was up from $5.58 billion, or $3,784 a class A share equivalent, a year earlier. 

Look at that: one year ago, same quarter, $3,784 / share in net income compared to $24,377 in net income per share this same quarter one year later. Buffett explained it away, downplayed it (knowing that the next quarter can't possibly be as stellar), and pundits did the same. Most remarkable, that data point was buried near the end in the WSJ article from which it came. Am I missing something? 

To put that in perspective, imagine your salary in 2022: $38,000. Now, imagine your salary jumping to $240,000 one year later. 

Double 4, you get 8; double 8, you get sixteen; and then 50% more and you get 24. So, BRK doubled its net income twice, and then another 50% y/y.

The penultimate act this last week ended with the Dow surging 550 points and all economic data suggesting the US is doing much better than expected. That much-predicted, much-anticipated, much-elusive recession is, again, pushed to the right.

In less than a week, GDPNow went from 1.1 to 2.7 for the second quarter.  

Even in NYC, it's now being reported that that are watering holes where there is a decided return to extraordinary lavishness, where a glass of wine is priced at $98. A glass of wine. I assume Torrisi cites inflation for charging $98 for a glass of wine. Torrisi has a 90-minute limit on how long one can stay at the bar / restaurant.

From an energy standpoint, look at this "Focus on Fracking" lede as the week began.

The Strategic Petroleum Reserve is at another 39-year low, US gasoline demand is at a 16-month high after the greatest one week jump in 22 years.

Think about that: US gasoline demand at a 16-month high after the greatest one-week jump in 22 years.

That "edition" of "FOF" was posted April 30, 2023.

Compare that side-by-side with my blog of April 28, 2023.  

"FOF" corroborated my argument that we can say with certainty that the US is now "back to normal."

The US shutdown spring, 2020. Reset: spring, 2023. 

One almost has to eliminate three years when comparing data points -- these data points in almost any analysis are worthless:

• March, 2020 - February, 2021
• March, 2021 - February, 2022
• March, 2022 - February, 2023

Those dates are a bit problematic when folks track "calendar years," January to December, not March to February.

With that in mind: one has to eliminate three years when comparing data points -- these data points in almost any analysis are worthless:

• January, 2020 - December, 2020 -- CY 20
  
• January, 2021 - December, 2021 -- CY 21
• January, 2022 - December, 2022 -- CY 22
  

March, 2023: reset.

Year-over-year for me is now x-month, 2023 / x-month 2019. This is a great example of what I'm talking about: 

BRK net income:

• CY / FY, 2019: $81.417 billion
• CY/ FY, 2022: - $22.819 billion
• CY/ FY, 2023: ?  -- but 1Q23 was $35.5 billion. 

Are We Seeing Another Incremental Improvement In The Bakken? May 7, 2023

Locator: 44586B. 

An incremental goal in the Bakken is to land a nice well (a nice 30-day IP), and then maintain that production for as long as possible. Anecdotally we get a huge number in the first month or so and then by the third month the dreaded Bakken decline sets in. 

But look at these wells coming off the confidential list this next week.

The wells:

• 38971, conf, Hess, GO-Aslakson-156-97-2734H-2, Dollar Joe,

Date	Oil Runs	MCF Sold
3-2023	21300	73147
2-2023	22630	56813
1-2023	22665	58531
12-2022	25312	55772
11-2022	23109	36046

• 37179, conf, Hess, EN-Davenport-156-94-1003H-8, Big Butte,

Date	Oil Runs	MCF Sold
3-2023	22668	39739
2-2023	26448	35198
1-2023	28923	27965
12-2022	32225	28201
11-2022	35535	23417

• 37177, conf, Hess, EN-Davenport-156-94-1003H-6, Big Butte,

Date	Oil Runs	MCF Sold
3-2023	25323	45923
2-2023	29777	42571
1-2023	21311	26111
12-2022	30784	26808
11-2022	42286	16070

Initial Production Data For Wells Coming Off Confidential List This Next Week -- May 7, 2023

Locator: 44585B. 

The wells:

• 39276, conf, Kraken, Sumner 12-13-24 6H, Ellisvile, no production data,
• 38971, conf, Hess, GO-Aslakson-156-97-2734H-2, Dollar Joe,

Date	Oil Runs	MCF Sold
3-2023	21300	73147
2-2023	22630	56813
1-2023	22665	58531
12-2022	25312	55772
11-2022	23109	36046

• 39285, conf, CLR, Smouse 7-28H, West Capa, no production data,
• 39275, conf, Kraken, Sumner 12-13-24 5H, Ellisvile, no production data,
• 35019, conf, BR, Lillibridge 1B TFH, Blue Buttes, no production data,
• 39284, conf, CLR, Smouse 6-28H, West Capa, no production data,
• 39274, conf, Kraken, Sumner 12-13-24 4H, Burg, no production data,
• 37184, conf, Zavanna, Edgar 10-3 2TFH, Poe,

Date	Oil Runs	MCF Sold
3-2023	8768	14918
2-2023	3714	5996
1-2023	4040	12572
12-2022	6408	9499
11-2022	5724	6355

• 39273, conf, Kraken, Sumner 1-36-25 3H, Burg, no production data,
• 37179, conf, Hess, EN-Davenport-156-94-1003H-8, Big Butte,

Date	Oil Runs	MCF Sold
3-2023	22668	39739
2-2023	26448	35198
1-2023	28923	27965
12-2022	32225	28201
11-2022	35535	23417

• 39272, conf, Kraken, Sumner 1-36-25 2H, Burg, no production data,
• 39271, conf, Kraken, Sumner 1-36-225 1H, Burg, no production data,
• 37177, conf, Hess, EN-Davenport-156-94-1003H-6, Big Butte,

Date	Oil Runs	MCF Sold
3-2023	25323	45923
2-2023	29777	42571
1-2023	21311	26111
12-2022	30784	26808
11-2022	42286	16070

• 38877, conf, Whiting, Smith 12-7TFX, Sanish,

Date	Oil Runs	MCF Sold
3-2023	13614	13941
2-2023	19829	11790
1-2023	19521	11839
12-2022	11619	10601
11-2022	3731	3367

• 31210, conf, BR, Gladstone 8-1-13MBH, Sand Creek, no production data,

Wells Coming Off Confidential List This Next Week -- May 7, 2023

Locator: 44584B.

Wednesday, May 17, 2023: 25 for the month; 77 for the quarter, 332 for the year
39276, conf, Kraken, Sumner 12-13-24 6H,
38971, conf, Hess, GO-Aslakson-156-97-2734H-2,

Tuesday, May 16, 2023: 23 for the month; 75 for the quarter, 330 for the year
39285, conf, CLR, Smouse 7-28H,
39275, conf, Kraken, Sumner 12-13-24 5H,
35019, conf, BR, Lillibridge 1B TFH,

Monday, May 15, 2023: 20 for the month; 72 for the quarter, 327 for the year
39284, conf, CLR, Smouse 6-28H,
39274, conf, Kraken, Sumner 12-13-24 4H,
37184, conf, Zavanna, Edgar 10-3 2TFH,

Sunday, May 14, 2023: 17 for the month; 69 for the quarter, 324 for the year
39273, conf, Kraken, Sumner 1-36-25 3H,
37179, conf, Hess, EN-Davenport-156-94-1003H-8,

Saturday, May 13, 202: 15 for the month; 67 for the quarter, 322 for the year  
39272, conf, Kraken, Sumner 1-36-25 2H,

Friday, May 12, 2023: 14 for the month; 66 for the quarter, 321 for the year
39271, conf, Kraken, Sumner 1-36-225 1H,
37177, conf, Hess, EN-Davenport-156-94-1003H-6,

Thursday, May 11, 2023: 12 for the month; 64 for the quarter, 319 for the year
38877, conf, Whiting, Smith 12-7TFX, 

Wednesday, May 10, 2023: 11 for the month; 63 for the quarter, 318 for the year 
None.

Tuesday, May 9, 2023: 11 for the month; 63 for the quarter, 318 for the year
None.

Monday, May 8, 2023: 11 for the month; 63 for the quarter, 318 for the year 
None.

Sunday, May 7, 2023: 11 for the month; 63 for the quarter, 318 for the year
31210, conf, BR, Gladstone 8-1-13MBH,

Saturday, May 6, 2023: 10 for the month; 62 for the quarter, 317 for the year
None.