We Now Have The Data: When The US Was "Back To Normal" And How Will We Recognize The Next Recession -- Aprill 28, 2023

Locator: 44491E. 

Finally, we have the data.

Two questions are now answered:

• when was the US back to "normal," coming out of the pandemic? and,
• how do we know when we are in a recession?

Both graphs look pretty identical.

I chose the five-year graph as opposed to the "max" graph because it seems to support my argument better, or perhaps better said, make it "more obvious" or "easier to see."

In addition, the longer one goes back in time, the number of "economic events" make the discussion more difficult.

The two graphs, as I noted, are almost identical.

Prior to 1990s, there were four companies:

• Exxon
• Mobil
• Chevron
• Texaco

After 2021, there were two:

• XOM
• CVX

From the two graphs, one can argue, the US was "back to normal, "economically-speaking" after the pandemic lockdown, in March, 2022.

The recession will be "obvious" when we have at least six months of a new red line clearly below the March, 2022 - March, 2023 line.

The US government won't "officially declare" a recession until a minimum of one to two years after the fact.

"Clearly below" will be in the neighborhood of a 20% correction. 

The charts:

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More Evidence That "We're Back To Normal"

Link here.