Wow, global economy surging after coming out of pandemic lock downs and atmospheric CO2 barely rises year over year.
Sunday, June 5, 2022
Atmospheric CO2 -- May, 2022
"Focus On Fracking" -- June 5, 2022
Link here.
Lede:
- US oil supplies at a 17½ year low with SPR at a 34½ year low;
- gasoline exports at a 3½ year high;
- record exports of oil + products over 4 weeks leaves total oil + products supplies at a 13½ year low.
Mystery -- June 6, 2022
Re-posting.
WASHINGTON—An unprecedented gush of income tax revenue is flowing into the federal government, driven in part by investors and business owners, and the size and speed of the increase has surprised even the nation’s fiscal-policy experts.
Individual income tax collections are poised to reach $2.6 trillion, or 10.6% of the economy in the fiscal year that ends Sept. 30, according to the Congressional Budget Office. That is up from 9.1% in 2021 and would mark a record in the 109-year history of the tax, topping the war-tax receipts of 1944 and the dot-com boom of 2000.
The surge has been particularly notable in taxes outside paycheck withholding, a signal that capital gains and business income are driving the trend. The Penn Wharton Budget Model estimates collections of non-withheld taxes reached an inflation-adjusted $522 billion in April 2022, compared with just over $300 billion in 2018 and 2019, before the pandemic.While that is part of the explanation, CBO officials and other economists who monitor tax collections say tax revenue became disconnected from other economic data in ways they still don’t fully understand.
“There’s a part that is unexplained that we need more time to figure out,” CBO director Phillip Swagel said. “It’s a mystery. It’s a maybe happy mystery, to have strong revenues.”
CBO officials identified several factors for further study. Perhaps, they said, a greater-than-usual share of capital gains were short-term gains taxed at rates up to 40.8% instead of 23.8%. Perhaps income grew faster than expected for those in the highest tax brackets compared with others, which means more income than forecast would be taxed at higher rates. The administration is waiting for more granular data to come in as it analyzes what is happening, said Lily Batchelder, assistant Treasury secretary for tax policy.
It is individual income taxes—more so than corporate or payroll taxes—that are most notably above forecasts. Individual income taxes include those levied on wages, capital gains from investments and business profits reported on owners’ personal tax returns. Normally, income tax collections echo the broader economy, so money coming into the government alongside tax returns reflects what happened during 2021.
Last year was unusual, with historically high inflation, a booming stock market fueling a booming housing market and trillions in government aid sloshing through the economy. And that may have yielded weird one-time changes in tax collections as people sold investments and used government aid. Inflation may have pushed up nominal income before tax-bracket indexing is able to catch up.
There Are Days I'm Just Getting Tired Of Carl Icahn -- June 5, 2022
As if he ever cared about pregnant sows. LOL. 
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Meanwhile, Elsewhere In The WSJ
WASHINGTON—An unprecedented gush of income tax revenue is flowing into the federal government, driven in part by investors and business owners, and the size and speed of the increase has surprised even the nation’s fiscal-policy experts.
Individual income tax collections are poised to reach $2.6 trillion, or 10.6% of the economy in the fiscal year that ends Sept. 30, according to the Congressional Budget Office. That is up from 9.1% in 2021 and would mark a record in the 109-year history of the tax, topping the war-tax receipts of 1944 and the dot-com boom of 2000.
The surge has been particularly notable in taxes outside paycheck withholding, a signal that capital gains and business income are driving the trend. The Penn Wharton Budget Model estimates collections of non-withheld taxes reached an inflation-adjusted $522 billion in April 2022, compared with just over $300 billion in 2018 and 2019, before the pandemic.While that is part of the explanation, CBO officials and other economists who monitor tax collections say tax revenue became disconnected from other economic data in ways they still don’t fully understand.
“There’s a part that is unexplained that we need more time to figure out,” CBO director Phillip Swagel said. “It’s a mystery. It’s a maybe happy mystery, to have strong revenues.”
CBO officials identified several factors for further study. Perhaps, they said, a greater-than-usual share of capital gains were short-term gains taxed at rates up to 40.8% instead of 23.8%. Perhaps income grew faster than expected for those in the highest tax brackets compared with others, which means more income than forecast would be taxed at higher rates. The administration is waiting for more granular data to come in as it analyzes what is happening, said Lily Batchelder, assistant Treasury secretary for tax policy.
It is individual income taxes—more so than corporate or payroll taxes—that are most notably above forecasts. Individual income taxes include those levied on wages, capital gains from investments and business profits reported on owners’ personal tax returns. Normally, income tax collections echo the broader economy, so money coming into the government alongside tax returns reflects what happened during 2021.
Last year was unusual, with historically high inflation, a booming stock market fueling a booming housing market and trillions in government aid sloshing through the economy. And that may have yielded weird one-time changes in tax collections as people sold investments and used government aid. Inflation may have pushed up nominal income before tax-bracket indexing is able to catch up.
How Close Are We To Peak Oil Demand? Alex Kimani -- June 5, 2022
I generally appreciate what Alex Kimani has to say but the conclusions he draws are ludicrous and worse, he presents no time line in his most recent essay.
The question: how close are we to peak oil demand?
The answer was never provided. It never is.
The question is not "how close are we to peak oil demand" but whether there will ever be a supply / demand imbalance that will scare the crap out of the Germans?
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Exhibit A
China signs yet another deal to buy 0.7 million tons of LNG from Energy Transfer's proposed Lake Charles export plant for twenty-five years.
Roughly nine (!!) LNG supply deals between the US and China were inked last year.
Everything else is white noise.
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Sunday Night Futures
Oil:
- Brent: $120.30.
- WTI: $119.50 (but it has been as high as $120.30 this evening).
- the spread is less than a dollar.
I'm lovin' it.
EVs -- Last Week -- June 5, 2022
The EV companies:
- GM: down 3.2%; trading at $37.61
- F: down 2.85; tradnig at $13.50
- TSLA: down 9.2%; trading at $703
- RIVN: down 5.5%; trading at $30
- RIDE: down 9%; trading at $1.83
- GOEV: down 2.6%; trading at $3.32
- NKLA: down 8.1%; trading at $6.66
- ELMS: down 1.35; trading at 52 cents
- most likely, had ELMS already been not so cheap, would have gone down even more
ELMS: link here to Bloomberg Tax --
ELMS is one of several electric vehicle-related companies that went public via SPAC that are fighting for survival. Faraday Future Intelligent Electric Inc., Canoo Inc., and Lordstown Motors Corp. are all under SEC investigation while also dealing with their own respective cash crunches.
The high dividend payers:
- ENB: down slightly; trading at $47; pays 5.63%
- EPD: down slightly; trading at $28; pays 6.62%
- MNRL: up 3%; wow, I had not seen this; pays 6.54%
- OKE: down slightly; trading at $67; pays 5.56%
The majors:
- COP: up 2.75%; trading at $118
- CVX: up 1%; trading at $178
- OXY: up 1.4%; trading at $70
- TTE: up 1%; trading at $59
- SHEL: up 0.7%; trading at $60; pays 3.25%
- PSX: up 1.4%; trading at $104
What Might Have Been -- June 5, 2022
This photo really says it all.
The "prince formerly known as Harry" has to be absolutely devastated not standing next to his brother and next to his favorite grandmother.
I was never an Anglophile ... until late in life. I've lived "everywhere" including many years in both Los Angeles and England. Even as an American, if give the choice, I would live in England if I had all the money in the world. Los Angeles is a miserable place to live, even for those who think they love it (like me). I can only imagine the sadness / frustration / anger Harry is feeling. I have no sympathy for him.
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And They Head Home
Student Debt -- June 5, 2022
A reader sent me this link.
I've been wanting to write on this subject for quite some time.
With my common sense and Jane-Austen-sensibilities I have a solution.
I will post the solution later, but before I do, think about what you would do if tasked with solving this problem.
You have three choices:
- do nothing
- do something
- do everything
I've come up with a "do everything" plan. Solve the problem once and for all.
New Nominee For 2022 Geico Rock Award
We've been discussing this for six months, if not longer.
The person perhaps most knowledgeable about the price of gasoline finally gets it.
Nominated for the 2022 Geico Rock Award.
The Sports Page -- June 5, 2022
The Texas Shootout. Accepted teams.
Tournament standings. The rankings have not been updated.
Olivia’s team is: DKSC - 06G Hart FDL.
Breaking: Olivia's soccer team just won their third of three "showcase" games in the Texas Shootout in Houston. This should guarantee them a first place finish in their group of 34 teams, the women's group in their age bracket. The final ranking will depend on number of total goals scored and number of goals scored against them across all three games, and if any other team won all three games. It's going to be difficult for any time to have had a better game than Olivia's first game in which her team won 11 - 0.
Later, not yet posted: yes, Olivia's team did finish first among the 34 invited teams.
From the coach:
More to follow, I'm sure.
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NASCAR Today
So much better than the junior varsity yesterday.
Sunday Morning -- June 5, 2022
Breaking: Olivia's soccer team just won their third of three "showcase" games in the Texas Shootout in Houston. This will guarantee them a first place finish in their group of 34 teams, the women's group in their age bracket.
OPEC OSP: OPEC keeps talking about raising its official selling price for crude oil headed to Asia. And I thought Asia was buying highly discounted Russian oil. Nothing makes sense any more. OPEC basket price link.
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OPEC Price Hikes for July
Link here. Holy mackerel. Not subtle.
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EVs
Reality sucks.
The average income in Indonesia is $170 per month. Yeah, I don't think a lot of these folks will ever be able to afford an EV.
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