Recession: IIRC I read that the decision to pause hiring was made last July. I see a pause in hiring a short-term bullish sign for AAPL. But that's just me. No recommendation. Usual disclaimer in effect.
When I saw AAPL today, for only the second time in my life, I considered buying AAPL on margin. And, yes, I will add more AAPL to my portfolio tomorrow. Remember: I have a 30-year horizon.
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there will be content and typographical errors. If anything on any of
my posts is important to you, go to the source. If/when I find
typographical / content errors, I will correct them.
In The New Yorker, one of my favorite writers: Adam Gopnik -- wow, Adam has been around for decades.
The latest issue, Gopnik reviews Stacy Schiff's The Revolutionary: Samuel Adams (Little, Brown), c. 2022.
Coincidentally, I read a review of the same book earlier this morning -- two reviews of the same book on the same day. Obviously, it's going to be on my autumn reading list.
The other review, at The Literary Hub, no paywall. Link here.
****************************** Maurice Sendak
This will arrive tomorrow; ordered today.
This week's selection for the autumn reading list.
the price of the world's two main food staples, wheat and rice:
roughly the same price as they were in November, 2021
before the Russian invasion of Ukraine
both wheat and rice are priced "lower" than they were ten years ago
General Mills, Audi, Pfizer: join growing list of companies pausing twitter ads SecEnergy Granholm:
SPR: on CNBC, "there are 400 million barrels per day in the SPR"
that's the SecEnergy of the US
now being repeated by CNBC anchors
oil produceer EOG's quarterly profit surges on strong energy prices
job growth in October will be "good" but will be slower than recent months -- well, duh, the U-1 unemployment rate is 1.1 percent; how much job growth can there be?
I'm going to buy a $200,000 electric car and a $10,000 battery charging station with batteries that cost $25,000 a pop -- so I can brag about saving $100 per month in gas.
1975. Great memories of California.
********************** Back to the Bakken
Active rigs: 41.
WTI: $88.02.
Natural gas: $5.932.
Three new permits: #39378 - #39380, inclusive:
Operators: Hunt Oil (2); Eagle Operating
Fields: Werner (Dunn Coounty); Chatfield (Bottineau)
Comments:
Hunt Oil has permit for two more Halliday wells, lot 1 section 30-146-92;
to be sited 300 FNL and at 1180 FWL and 1210 FWL;
Eagle Operating has a permit for a Cutbank well, SWSW 18-159-81;
GAAP earnings per share (EPS) increased from $3.31 to $3.98 driven by a decrease in operating expenses due to a $0.4 billion
licensing-related upfront payment to Kyowa Kirin Co., Ltd. (KKC) in Q3
2021 and lower weighted-average shares outstanding in Q3 2022.
Non-GAAP EPS increased from $4.08 to $4.70 driven by a decrease in operating expenses due to a $0.4 billion licensing-related upfront payment to KKC in Q3 2021 and lower weighted-average shares outstanding in Q3 2022.
The Company generated $2.8 billion of free cash flow for the third quarter versus $2.2 billion in the third quarter of 2021.
Chord Energy Corporation (CHRD) came out with quarterly earnings of $7.20 per share, missing the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $8.06 per share. This compares to earnings of $3.16 per share a year ago. These figures are adjusted for non-recurring items.
This quarterly report represents an earnings surprise of -10.67%. A quarter ago, it was expected that this company would post earnings of $7.81 per share when it actually produced earnings of $7.30, delivering a surprise of -6.53%.
Over the last four quarters, the company has surpassed consensus EPS estimates just once.
Chord Energy Corporation, which belongs to the Zacks Oil and Gas - Exploration and Production - United States industry, posted revenues of $1.19 billion for the quarter ended September 2022, surpassing the Zacks Consensus Estimate by 41.19%. This compares to year-ago revenues of $402.04 million. The company has topped consensus revenue estimates four times over the last four quarters.
Battle royale between Biden/Dem-controlled Congress and Jay Powell.
As fast as Jay Powell tries to control inflation, Biden/Congree keep spending more money.
Most of the inflation is being driven by high-energy prices, and most high-energy prices are traced back to Biden's botched decisions.
I don't agree with a lot of what is said in the video above but note the number of followers.
This speaks volumes about high energy prices.
******************** Recession
I'm not convinced the US is inevitably headed toward recession. Jay Powell's team is too smart to let that happen.
Too many twitter contributors are confusing "stock market bear market" with recession.
These job reports this past year have been incredible, and yet companies still can't find enough workers.
Jay Powell's team is seeing things that twitter contributors are unable to see -- the formed is looking strategically -- long term -- while twitter contributors are looking tactically -- their net worth on paper and short term.
We are in a vicious cycle right not: high gasoline / diesel prices --> more inflation --> higher gasoline / high diesel prices --> more inflation.
Jay Powell's problem is his one tool -- raising the Fed rate -- does not target the problem; it hammers the entire economy.
The president and Congress had/have the tools that could/can target the underlying problem but they did not use those tools and, worse, made critical mistakes the day Biden became president. Their bad, bad decisions made a tough problem tougher and the administration seems befuddled.
I get the feeling that Jay Powell is very, very angry (we've discussed this before) and he will keep raising rates until Biden / Congress get the message.
******************* Price of Gasoline
Most fascinating: watching the price of gasoline. There is clearly a disconnect right now between the price of oil and the price of gasoline. We're seeing a divergence between the price of a barrel of oil and the the price of gasoline.
Much of this is related to the cost of literally delivering gasoline to the corner service station assuming the corner service station can actually find a source for the gasoline they need. Simply look at the price of gasoline in states where the refineries are located, and the states where there are no refineries.
******************* Investing
As noted often on the blog, I add to my investments during the first and third weeks of each month.
Today, was the day for investing.
It was incredibly difficult not to put the entire cash position I had into Devon after the 13% drop in share price yesterday.
But I kept to my plan:
Buffett-like, Blue Chip: 40%
Beat down infrastructure (mostly semis, copper): 30%
EPS of $3.60 beats by 16 cents; increases dividend by 11%; $20 billion buyback; next quarterly dividend of 51 cents / share.
Story:
ConocoPhillips reported third-quarter 2022 earnings of $4.5 billion, or $3.55 per share, compared with third-quarter 2021 earnings of $2.4 billion, or $1.78 per share. Excluding special items, third-quarter 2022 adjusted earnings were $4.6 billion, or $3.60 per share, compared with third-quarter 2021 adjusted earnings of $2.4 billion, or $1.77 per share. Special items for the current quarter were primarily driven by a loss on asset sales.
Third-Quarter Highlights and Recent Announcements
Distributed $4.3 billion to shareholders through a three-tier framework, including $1.5 billion in cash through the ordinary dividend and variable return of cash (VROC) and $2.8 billion through share repurchases.
Increased quarterly dividend by 11% to 51 cents per share and raised existing share repurchase authorization by $20 billion.
Expanded global LNG portfolio through participation in QatarEnergy’s North Field South LNG project and agreed to terminal services in Germany for a 15-year period at the prospective German LNG Terminal.
Set a new 2030 methane emissions intensity target of approximately 0.15% of gas produced, consistent with the company’s commitment to Oil and Gas Methane Partnership (OGMP) 2.0.
Achieved Lower 48 production milestone of greater than 1,000 MBOED, contributing to record global production of 1,754 MBOED while successfully completing planned maintenance turnarounds.
Generated cash provided by operating activities of $8.7 billion and cash from operations (CFO) of $7.2 billion.
Ended the quarter with cash and short-term investments of $10.7 billion.
Friday, November 5, 2022: 8 for the month, 44 for the quarter, 489 for the year. 38873, conf, Kraken, Nash 15-22 6H, 38520, conf, Whiting, Platt 44-28TFX, 38335, conf, Oasis, Soto 5097 12-3 4B, 35718, conf, Enerplus, FB Leviathan,
Thursday, November 4, 2022: 4 for the month, 40 for the quarter, 485 for the year. 38872, conf, Kraken, Knox LE 16-21 7H, 38871, conf, Kraken, Knox 16-21 6H,
Bragging rights are a big deal in Texas, and we’re not just talking
pride about the Astros’ annual rampage through baseball’s post-season.
Getting to the top is also a source of immense pride for oil and gas
midstreamers, and right now Targa Resources claims the bragging rights
as the largest gatherer and processor of associated natural gas in the
Permian Basin. Targa’s bold decision to build an integrated gas and NGL
business, its timely infrastructure expansions through and after the
pandemic, and a recent, accretive acquisition have resulted in a massive
footprint where a stunning 25% of forecast Permian gas production
growth is expected to take place. But strong competitors such as
Enterprise Product Partners, DCP Midstream and Energy Transfer are
nipping at Targa’s heels.
