Did North Dakota Just Set An All-Time BOEPD Production Record? -- April, 2018 Data

I'll let folks fact check me on this.

Disclaimer: I'm inappropriately exuberant about the Bakken. Take everything I say in this post with a grain of salt.

First, go back to the director's cut with the most recent data, April, 2018, data.

April, 2018, data suggests "we" came very, very close to setting a new all time crude oil production record in April, missing the record by 2,500 bopd or about 0.21%. That was missing the record by 2,500 bbls on total production of over 1.224 million bbls of crude oil. Per day.

However, if one adds in the natural gas production it is very, very clear North Dakota set a new all-time BOE production record of 1,598,948 boepd. Staggering.

Someone can fact check me on that, but for now, I will use that as the BOE all-time production record for North Dakota, going forward.

Some other observations:

• 374,000 boepd natural gas production / 1,598,948 boe total production = 23%
• 374,000 boepd natural gas production / 1,224,948 bopd production = 31%
• new Bakken wells, first six months of production: about a 94% / 6% crude oil / natural gas split
• as wells mature, crude oil declines but natural gas production may increase

Other observations:

• reminder, for newbies: the greatest production from Bakken wells occurs in the first six months of production
• in April, there were over 900 DUCs (wells drilled to depth but not completed/fracked)
• had three more DUCs been brought on line in April: 90,000 bbls of oil over 30 days =  3,000 bopd would have been added to total production, setting an all-time record (preliminary data)
• in addition, in April, there were over 1,500 wells on inactive status (many Bakken wells -- and some very good Bakken wells -- are taken off line when neighboring wells are being fracked; they can be off line anywhere from a few days to a few months)
• back in 2014, there were in excess of 175 active rigs drilling in the Bakken; in April, 2018, less than 60 active rigs drilling in the Bakken -- wow, staggering

Bottom line: the April, 2018, data was much more surprising than a lot of folks realize.

The Week's Top Energy Stories For North Dakota -- March 18, 2018

From ndenergy.org, the week's top North Dakota energy stories.

Lynn Helms: we need another pipeline

North Dakota oil production is on pace to break the state's previous record, and that means additional crude takeaway capacity will be needed soon.

"Natural gas wise, we're blowing the lid off this thing," he said. "We really are struggling to figure out what to do with all that gas."

Helms said North Dakota producers now have to undercut Canadian suppliers to get their natural gas in a pipeline. But by 2026, there will be so much Bakken gas the pipelines will all be full. Current production is about 2.1 billion cubic feet per day, but Helms expects that total will eventually double.

Bakken investment could hit $700 billion

North Dakota's oil and gas industry has already invested $127 billion in the state, but industry regulators say there's much more to come.

Lynn Helms, Director of the Department of Mineral Resources, predicts that over the life of the play, total investment will approach $600-to-700 billion.

"If this was a football game, we're just coming to the end of the first quarter," Helms said, "so most of the game is still in front of us."

Watford City schools need more teachers

Blogged previously: PSC approves two major projects

CENEX pipeline

The ND Public Service Commission has given the go-ahead to Cenex to upgrade a diesel fuel pipeline between Sidney, Montana and Minot, North Dakota.

The existing 150-mile, eight-inch diameter pipeline will be replaced with a 10-inch line. The upgraded infrastructure will allow Cenex to expand the carrying potential of the pipeline to 60,000 barrels a day from the initial upgraded level of 38,000 bbl/day.  

Arrow Bear Den gas plant

The ND Public Service Commission has approved a construction permit for the Arrow Bear Den Gas Processing Plant II near Watford City. 

The permitting process began in November 2017 to support Crestwood Arrow's gathering system on the Fort Berthold Indian Reservation. A new 25-mile long pipeline will bring product to the plant.

The Phase 2 expansion is expected to cost approximately $195 million and be in service by the third quarter of 2019. 

The Bakken -- It Just Never Quits -- December 23, 2017

The item is very short:

WBI Energy Transmission Inc. filed an application with the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission for a new section of pipeline to boost transportation capacity to the company's interconnect with Northern Border Pipeline Co. in western North Dakota.

The project would include 12 miles of 24-inch-diameter steel pipeline that would begin at the Spring Creek meter station and end at the Cherry Creek valve setting. The company said it has precedent agreements with Oasis Petroleum Marketing LLC and ONEOK Rockies Midstream LLC for 196,000 Dth/d and 10,000 Dth/d of incremental firm transportation service, respectively.

That was it. My comments/observations:

• huge, huge pipe: 2 feet in diameter -- think about that next time you see pipeline (water, natural gas, sewer, whatever) -- a 2-foot diameter pipe is one huge pipe
• total ND natural gas production: 2,000,000 or 2 million mcf/d 
• 206,000Dth/d = 200,000 mcf/d
• 200,000 / 2,000,000 = 1% -- one percent
• if my figures are correct, this pipeline will move about 1% of all the North Dakota natural gas produced in one day
• the connector is 12 miles; at $1 million / mile = $12 million dollars

This is pretty cool. If you are remotely interested in this project or just want to have some fun looking at FERC documents and maps of North Dakota, simply click on this http://www.wbienergy.com/docs/default-source/demicks-lake-ferc/wbi-demicks-lake-draft-resources-report-10.pdf?sfvrsn=4. A PDF will probably download on your desktop.

It downloads incredibly quickly suggesting it's in the cloud. It will download faster on a cloudy day.

I don't know how long the Bakken will last or how important the Bakken will be in the big scheme of things. All I know is that "they" aren't putting in 12 miles of 2-foot-diameter pipeline for upwards of $15 million for a one-year science project. Art Berman can say it's the "beginning of the end" for the Bakken and The Atlantic can say the boom is over and oilprice can say that US shale is not the answer and yada, yada, yada, but without question there's a lot going on in four little counties in western North Dakota, providing a lot of high-paying jobs for a long, long time, and for the most part not upsetting the gods to any significant extent -- at least the volcanoes in western North Dakota are not erupting, suggesting the gods can't be too mad at "us."

Tweeting Now, From John Kemp, Regarding North Dakota Oil Production; Down 4,000 BOPD In February; Within Margin Of Error -- Absolutely Flat/Steady/No Change Month-Over-Month -- April 15, 2016

I think the graph tends to exaggerate the reality. The "y" axis is "monthly oil production growth compound average percentage growth rate over previous 12 months." Okay.