Not Quite Ready For Prime Time -- For The Archives -- Global Cooling Arguments Gaining Traction? -- WUWT -- July 4, 2016

Link here. Are scientists preparing for a flipflop back to global cooling predictions.

Don spotted an earlier article on same subject some time suggesting that scientists may be looking for "way out of their dilemma" and will blame it on decreased solar activity.

In the link above, the writer notes a number of articles now being posted that suggest scientists are starting to look at the very real possibility of global cooling. My hunch is that if this gains traction, the "warmists" will say nothing has changed in the long run. This simply "buys us a bit more time" to continue working on lowering CO2 emissions.

By the way, we should be getting the latest atmospheric CO2 levels any day now. It takes awhile for the "warmists" to massage the data before releasing the press release.

Summertime, Billy Preston (plays J. S. Bach and Ray Charles)

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Cheeses: A-to-Z -- WSJ

And, How To Build A Cheese Board 

Link here. 

A bit of trivia: traditionally, mountain cheeses are produced in sturdy medium-to-large wheels, increasing the odds they’ll make it intact to lower elevation, where they’re sold in towns and cities.

Generation Dispatch -- June 24, 2016

Updates

Later, 2:25 p.m. Central Time: see first comment. I brought it up here so that it is browser searchable:

A few observations to add ...

There are continuing improvements in LTO (shale oil or light tight oil) extractive processes that are not so readily apparent due to overall low levels of activity.

The Permian will continue to surprise to the upside as the VERY large number of operators there are becoming more skillful at drilling/ completing wells in that extraordinarily hydrocarbon rich area.

The Canadian oil sector may loom larger in future significance as their SAGD (steam-assisted gravity drainage) procedures continue to become more cost effective in both the extractive activities as well as the infrastructure, ie., mini, modular facilities that are erected when/where needed.

Finally, I've been looking at numerous production profiles from Cabot's Susquehanna county wells in Pennsylvania.

One word ... Wow!

They have increased output on seemingly dozens of wells from 1 MMcfd last year to 3MMcfd now.

Only reasonable way that could happen is if they choked back a bunch last year.

Incredibly productive area. Natgas for generations to come for certain. 

Pennsylvania now reports natural gas production monthly.

Cabot's production in April is here.

Original Post

 

Meandering thoughts on the oil and gas sector. This post is not ready for prime time but it gets the conversation going.

If I had just one 30-second sound bite, one elevator speech for crude oil and one 30-second sound bite, one elevator speech for natural gas, these would be:

• for crude oil: we are now reaching a steady state, supply/demand for crude oil; that balance is fairly well understood; and Saudi Arabia has probably reached its production/export limitations
• for natural gas: in the US, with the announced closure of the last two nuclear power plants in California, it's all about dispatchable energy.

There are so many huge stories going on in the world of energy, it's hard to know where to start. There are so many changes occurring. There are so many new concepts to learn. I focus on crude oil and natural gas.

Crude oil

• the tea leaves suggest that Saudi Arabia has reached its limits of production
• we now have a better idea of how important the different types of crude oil are, e.g. heavy vs light
• we've been in a relative period of "calm" with regard to global production; we seemed to hae reach a steady-state of supply-demand; it seems unlikely to see any huge production / supply increase; it is unlikely to see a huge decrease, but an unplanned decrease in crude oil production seems much more probably than an unplanned increase in crude oil production over the next decade
• the only producers that really count now are Saudi Arabia, Russia, and the US; from here on out, it only becomes more painful for most of the other oil producing/oil exporting nations
• US gasoline demand is setting new records; at some point RBN Energy will like have a post on how much of this is due to gasoline exports
• many analysts still misunderstand / do not understand the "Bakken"
• in the US, the oil and gas industry keeps making progress; in Russia and Saudi Arabia, not so much
• outside of the US, Russia, and Saudi Arabia, the oil industry seems to take a foot forward, and then two steps back -- case studies: Nigeria, Libya, Venezuela, Iraq, Kurdistan 
• the Panama Canal expansion could have huge implications
• the infrastructure in the US to move that crude oil around is in great shape; there seems to be a fairly good match between upstream (E&P) and midstream (refining) capacity; there are huge opportunities to add more petrochemical plants along the Gulf Coast, the East Coast, and inland (North Dakota)

Natural gas

• without question, this is the big story regarding natural gas: the announced, planned closure of the last two nuclear plants in California; solar/wind as replacement only means increased natural gas requirements
• with oil, the "aha" was understanding the importance "heavy" vs "light"
• with natural gas, the "aha" is dispatchable energy; we've talked about it rarely, but today RBN Energy points out the importance -- more on that below
• the US pretty much as a limitless supply of readily accessible natural gas for the next sixty years; generally speaking, 20 years = one generation of humans, so we are talking about three generations of Americans having a limitless supply of readily accessible natural gas

Dispatchable energy: from today's RBN Energy post. The writers try to explain the "abrupt shift in power burn" this summer:

Theme: There are several factors that likely contributed to this abrupt upshift in power burn in June. 

Higher absolute power burn levels this spring: Sure, temperatures in June have been much higher than in May, which is considered a “shoulder” (or off-peak) month for demand typically marked by mild weather. With higher temperatures, June demand for air conditioning is higher as well. That explains the higher absolute power burn levels. 

Economic dispatch:But what about the jump in temperature-adjusted demand? That can be better explained with fuel economics. Power generation plants are brought on line in order of the variable cost of operating the plant (although there are other factors – notably reliability - that are taken into account). Least expensive units are brought on first and most expensive units last – a process known as economic dispatch. 

Even with the "war on coal" natural gas was less expensive: A major (but not only) factor in generation dispatch is plant fuel cost, and the closest competitor to natural gas-fired generation is still coal. As our regular blog readers know, for some time now low gas prices as well as a regulatory and related structural shift in the industry — gas plant additions combined with coal plant retirements — have favored increased utilization of gas-fired plants. So fuel switching economics was a major factor driving more temperature-adjusted demand.  In February, the Energy Information Administration (EIA) reported that U.S. gas-fired power plants generated more electricity than their coal-fired counterparts through much of 2015. Since last October, natural gas prices have beat out even the most accessible (and therefore cheapest) coal — Powder River Basin (PRB) coal — by an average 22 cents/MMBtu. That’s including the cost of transportation for delivering the coal, which has come down drastically in recent months. Last month, when market participants were out scheduling their physical natural gas nominations for June delivery, the June gas contract was still averaging about 13 cents under the corresponding PRB coal contract, and more than $1.00 under the most expensive coal in the country — Central Appalachian (CAPP) coal. In other words, the economics still favored gas at that point, and with temperatures expected to rise in June, power generators likely expected to utilize their gas plant capacity at exceptionally high rates, providing a welcome boost to natural gas demand. 

Pricing has changed: The natural gas market, after all, has been waiting on strong, even record power burn to help sponge up all the excess gas in storage. But with the record power demand (and hot weather forecasts) has come significantly higher natural gas prices. And, in turn, with the recent price gains, the coal-gas price relationship has now flipped.

I'm not particularly interested in the natural gas vs coal story.

That's economic dispatch.

What fascinates me is energy dispatch unrelated to cost.

Wind and solar energy is NOT dispatchable. Say that three times: wind and solar energy are not dispatchable. 

For that matter, as we learned this week (or the previous week), nuclear energy for all intents and purposes is not dispatchable. To some extent it might be, but even if one argues that nuclear energy is dispatchable, nuclear energy is not economically dispatchable. Nuclear energy plants were designed to run for one to three years at a constant, 24/7 rate.

Unfortunately, state-mandated renewable energy laws upset the nuclear energy business model, and nuclear plants are not feasible in an era/area where wind and solar are being mandated. Mandate wind and solar, and eventually the nuclear plants have to close.

But because wind and solar energy is not dispatchable, every time a new wind farm or solar farm comes on line, a natural gas plant has to provide backup. Germany has gone that route (turning to coal, rather than natural gas) and the utilities are paying a huge price for that inefficiency. US utilities have seen this and are taking steps to protect themselves; whether they can is yet to be seen.

Enough for now.

Great Britain Leaves The EU -- June 23, 2016

Britain votes to leave, 52% to 48%. Dow futures down 600 points. British PM Cameron will resign.

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California Cap-and-Trade -- On The Verge Of Collapse?

The tea leaves tell me that when President Obama leaves office, it's pretty much the beginning of the end for the "global warming" scam:

• President Obama recently telling Americans that rising seas would flood the Statue of Liberty was evidence of desperation on his part;
• Hillary will talk the talk, but won't walk the walk; she won't have the energy to be the world's cheerleader on global warming;
• California will close its last nuclear plants; the rest of the country will eventually follow -- natural gas will be the fuel of the future;  
• California has cut the plug on its EV program;
• Tesla could be the warning shot across the bow of "green energy" companies who have all their eggs in one basket; and, 
• then this: LA Times -- California's cap-and-trade program in imminent danger of collapse.

The linchpin of California’s climate change agenda, a program known as cap and trade, has become mired in legal, financial and political troubles that threaten to derail the state’s plans to curb greenhouse gas emissions.

The program has been a symbol of the state’s leadership in the fight against global warming and a key source of funding, most notably for the high-speed rail project connecting San Francisco and Los Angeles.

But the legality of cap and trade is being challenged in court by a business group, and questions are growing about whether state law allows it to operate past 2020. With the end of the legislative session in August, Gov. Jerry Brown, lawmakers and interest groups of all stripes are laying the groundwork for what could become a battle royal over the future of California’s climate change programs.

Unless the state acts, “the whole system could fail,” said Senate leader Kevin de León (D-Los Angeles). “If that happens, we could lose an entire stream of revenue to make our communities more sustainable.”

And note: this is nothing about "global warming." This is about transfer of wealth -- spending other people's money to "provide an entire stream of revenue to ensure communities, who have overspent, survive.

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Led Zeppelin
Posted on YouTube Well Before The Verdict

What little I know, I think the jury made the right decision.

Thank Goodness -- June 13, 2016 -- Nothing About The Bakken In This Post

Nothing about the Bakken in this post; if you came here looking for the Bakken, scroll down or check out the sidebar at the right.

The Washington Post reports that we will never see atmospheric CO2 below 400 parts per million again, in our lifetime.

Wow, that's good news. Optimum atmospheric CO2 concentration for growing marijuana is about 1,200 ppm.

Unfortunately, at the rate "we" are going, we probably won't see 450 in our lifetimes either.

More troubling is the fact that rising atmospheric CO2 is due more to El Niño than anything else, all other things being equal, like the number of Teslas MuskMelon delivers:

The new study suggests is that those days are over — carbon dioxide will never fall below 400 ppm this year, nor the next, nor the next.

The reason is that the strong 2015-2016 El Niño event has pushed concentrations upward more than usual for a given year — El Niños tend to do that, because they dry out tropical regions, lessening tree growth and sparking vast wildfires.

That means that even in September of this year, when annual concentrations are typically at their lowest (as northern hemisphere trees lose their leaves and vegetation growth declines heading into winter), they’ll likely still be slightly over 400 parts per million, scientists forecast. [We'll be watching.]

The paper also predicts that this El Niño will drive a year-to-year rise in average atmospheric concentrations of 3.15 parts per million, exceeding the single-year change caused by the last major El Niño, from 1997-1998, of 2.9 parts per million.

On June 12, concentrations were at 407.26 parts per million, according to NOAA’s Earth System Research Laboratory, which monitors the data. But they should start to decline soon, according to the seasonal cycle, which reaches a peak in May and a low in September and is driven by the growth of plants in the northern hemisphere (where there is much more total land area).

I can't make this stuff up. But it looks like "we've" hit our high for the year. I strongly doubt 3.15 ppm vs 2.9 ppm is even statistically significant, and it certainly isn't independently reproducible or verifiable. At least not be me. The best I can do, to follow global warming, is measure the rising sea levels by sticking popsicle sticks in the sand at the beach.

It's hard to believe that after the tragedy we had in Orlando, FL, last night, the Washington Post found time to post this story.

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The Tonys

Of the four major entertainment awards shows: the Oscars, the Emmys, The Grammys, and the Tonys (collectively now referred to as the EGOT awards), only the Oscars have ever really interested me enough to actually watch them, and then it was rare and generally only when Billy Crystal hosted.

But last night, for some odd reason, I found myself watching the Tonys. I was happy to see that they went on despite the tragedy in Orlando. Is tragedy the right word? James Corden has emerged as perhaps the best presenter -- as they call them in England -- in the US right now. I enjoyed the show, although I started to tire of it as it wore on.

Having watched Birdman more than a dozen times now, I have really come to appreciate Broadway much more than I might have otherwise.

Nothing seemed more accurate than the description of last night's Tonys presentation: "the Oscars with diversity." It was truly amazing. It really seemed that Broadway, at least this year, was where African-Americans were making their mark. Wouldn't it be interesting if Broadway becomes the "farm team," as it were for Hollywood? Comparing Broadway and Hollywood is comparing apples and oranges, but maybe the argument works. I don't know.

I don't particularly care for Oprah Winfrey, but I was happy to see The Color Purple win the awards it did.

EIA Forecasts Cooler Summer For US; So Much For Global Warming -- June 7, 2016

I thought it was taking longer this year for spring to arrive. We still haven't had good weather for swimming, although I've been in the pool three times so far this year. But I digress. I was just noting that it seemed cooler than usual, and it seems I was correct. From the EIA's short term forecast:

Gasoline/Refined Products:

• Even with higher crude oil prices passed on to consumers at the pump, summer retail gasoline prices are still expected to be the lowest in 12 years. 
• Despite the recent rise in gasoline prices, summer gasoline demand is forecast to reach a record 9.5 million barrels per day.

Crude Oil:

• Low oil prices continue to cut into domestic oil production, with U.S. monthly oil output not expected to start steadily increasing until the end of 2017. 
• The decline in U.S. May oil production is expected to be the largest drop in monthly output since Hurricane Ike knocked out a big chunk of offshore oil production in September 2008. 
• Oil consumption in India is expected to increase by 350,000 barrels per day this year, the country’s largest annual volume growth ever, based on EIA data that goes back to 1980. 
• Global oil inventories are expected to continue increasing through mid-2017, which could help moderate oil prices during that period.

Natural Gas:

• U.S. natural gas production is forecast to remain mostly flat through the summer before output picks up at the end of this year and into 2017 in response to an expected rise in natural gas prices.

Electricity:

• Expected cooler weather for most of the country this summer will contribute to a nearly 2% drop in total U.S. electricity sales to the residential sector this year.

Coal:

• U.S. coal inventories are higher because of less coal use as a generating fuel for electricity and warmer-than-normal temperatures this past winter. 
• The decline in coal use by the electric power sector is expected to contribute to a nearly 8% drop in U.S. carbon dioxide emissions from coal during 2016.

Renewables:

• The U.S. power sector’s reliance on hydropower, wind, solar, and other renewable energy sources for electricity generation is expected to increase in 2016.

Miscellaneous Notes -- June 4, 2016; Shock And Awe -- ObamaCare Premiums Set To Rise 50%

From Reuters/Rigzone: Nigerian militants say their aim is "zero oil output" after three new attacks. See my post of June 3 regarding Nigeria before these most recent attacks.

I think this was posted previously; I forget. Saudi Aramco diversifying. Rigzone is reporting: GE Oil & Gas has signed an agreement with Saudi Aramco and Italy's Cividale to construct the Middle East and North Africa's first-of-its-kind, high-end forging and casting manufacturing facility to serve the region's energy and maritime industries.

Speaking of which: yesterday while driving out to see the new Buc-ee's at the intersection of Texas State Highway 114 and I-35W, we drove past "GE Manufacturing Solutions" and saw six brand new Norfolk Southern diesel locomotives (black and shiny) and one new BNSF (orange and shiny) on the tracks outside the facility. I don't recall ever seeing brand new locomotives literally off the "assembly line." I did not have my camera, unfortunately, but there was no place to park, so perhaps it was best.

No links, but there have been quite a few stories on Vaca Muerta lately (over the past 24 months).

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Shock And Awe

How bad are the ObamaCare premiums going to be? From the Chicago Tribune: Blue Cross premium hikes in Texas and Oklahoma could mean Illinois sticker shock.

llinois residents who buy Blue Cross and Blue Shield health care coverage through the state insurance exchange may be in for Obamacare sticker shock, if proposed rate hikes by the largest insurers in Texas and Oklahoma are any indication.

Texas and Oklahoma are possible harbingers of Blue Cross' prices on the Illinois exchange because all three health plans are owned by the same company, Chicago-based Health Care Service Corp. Blue Cross is the most popular insurer on the Illinois exchange.

In Texas, Blue Cross and Blue Shield is seeking increases averaging 53.7 percent across its Affordable Care Act plans, according to documents posted online by the federal government. In Oklahoma, Blue Cross and Blue Shield is seeking rate increases that average 49.2 percent. It is far from certain if the rate increases will hold up on review, or how much they might change.

The GOP needs to run, not walk, away from this debacle. Let the Dems handle this one.

Trump: "Let's make America great again."
Hillary: "Let's re-visit ObamaCare."
Gary Johnson: "Let's elect Hillary."

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Re-Balancing

This appears to be the word du jour: "re-balancing." We first saw this word associated with the price of oil, how analysts suggest that the price of oil will trend high as supply and demand "re-balances."

Yesterday, I saw a new use for the term. Apparently, Greenland's ice volume is re-balancing. Actually, I'm not quite correct. The story has to do with "the glacial mass balance of Greenland."

Apparently, the "glacial mass balance of Greenland is increasing despite the fact that reliable sources continue to report that global temperatures are on the rise. 

My hunch is that "warmists" can easily explain away this counter-intutitive observation:

In recent years, the glacial mass balance of Greenland is increasing despite announcements that global temperatures are on the rise; despite warnings that the Greenland Ice Sheet is melting; and despite announcements of a possible “blocked Gulf Stream “or catastrophic increase in sea level .”

The fact is, that snowfalls are higher than the amount of ice that melts, and the mass balance is strongly positive again this year.

The source is out of Italy and any source based in Italy certainly has to be reliable; why would they lie?

The Bakken Meme Articulated In India; Taking A Pause; Looking At Other Blogs -- June 2, 2016

The market continues to climb the "wall of worry." Oil takes an interesting turn in light of the news coming out of Vienna. This suggests to me that oil traders had priced in the expected OPEC outcome. 

Last night I had the opportunity to visit some of my favorite blogs. One of my favorite site is The Coyote Blog. I've long forgotten how I came across this blog. The writer never fails to interest me. He seems to be most fair and balanced when it comes to a) global warming; and, b) light rail. He is certainly more fair and balanced than I am on these subjects and that makes him more credible.

I was going to write that regardless, but coincidentally, The Coyote Blog has a great piece on global warming posted today. Amazing. The coincidences. Another must read: a nice link from Megan McArdle. That link will take you to Megan McArdle at Bloomberg. Note: just because I link/post something, it does not mean I have read all of it closely or whether I agree with any or all of it. I often post things because it is a) good writing; and/or, b) provides an interesting perspective.

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The Bakken Meme

Years ago, when I first started the blog, I mentioned that there are three "Bakkens." I forget how I broke the three "Bakkens" down or exactly how I described them, but they were something along this line:

a) the geographical Bakken in North Dakota and how it has changed the economy in the Williston Basin;
b) the Bakken phenomenon worldwide: how technology lessons learned by operators in the Bakken spread to the Permian, the Eagle Ford, and the Niobrara, just to name a few plays; and,
c) the Bakken political/economic handshake -- where the private sector, the public sector, the oil and gas industry, the local and state government, the media -- where "everybody" involved in the process worked in a positive manner to make it happen. Naysayers were pretty much marginalized.

Somehow, those three "Bakkens' morphed into a meme, where the "Bakken" now symbolizes something for everyone around the world.

Just how far has the Bakken meme spread? All the way to India. Look at this:

From Bloomberg:

The casualties of the U.S. shale bust are being offered a new frontier thousands of miles away in India to remake their fortunes. 

Prime Minister Narendra Modi is striving to woo investors to develop already discovered but untapped smaller oil and gas fields that hold more than India’s total annual output. 

The South Asian nation depends on energy imports, a risk Modi is seeking to tackle as the fastest expansion among major economies turns India into a center of global oil demand growth.

"Entrepreneurs who have capped their wells in Alberta or North Dakota will be looking at this kind of a story with a greater amount of interest, as there’s very little to look forward to in their own fronts,” Atanu Chakraborty, the head of oil regulator the Directorate General of Hydrocarbons, said in an interview on Tuesday. 

India isn’t fussy about who takes up the challenge -- whether foreign wildcatters or local internet tycoons looking to diversify their investments -- as long as they’re serious and have the money needed, Chakraborty said. The government is offering incentives such as simpler permits, tax sops and freedom from pricing restrictions to overcome the deterrent that low oil prices pose to boosting production.

India’s robust domestic consumption is a buffer against the risk that prices "can fall again or will remain low," Chakraborty, 56, said in the interview in his office in New Delhi.

State-run Oil & Natural Gas Corp. dominates exploration and production in the South Asian nation. Faced with maturing large fields, the company has struggled to stem the drop in India’s oil output in recent years.

The $2 trillion economy imports about 77 percent of the crude and gas it needs. The 67 already-discovered small fields Chakraborty is trying to develop hold about 625 million barrels of oil and gas.

Foreign explorers such as Canada’s Niko Resources Ltd. and Edinburgh-based Cairn Energy Plc grew businesses in India after starting with smaller fields. At the same time, the companies have faced challenges ranging from arbitration spats with the government to tax disputes, underscoring the regulatory risks that some investors fear in India.

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The Intellectual Stammerer

It was just eighteen (18) hours ago when I asked whether this was done on purpose. Now we know. It has been confirmed that this is an example of intellectual stammering. This has been reported on at least since 2011. There are numerous links: simply google "intellectual stammering." You don't even need to add "Obama."

Intellectual stammering is real; it is practiced; it is honed; it is not stuttering. Well done, Mr President.

June 1, 2016

The most well-known individual who was best at this: William F. Buckley.

Thursday, June, 2, 2016

Updates

Later, 10:05 a.m. Central Time: weekly energy data tweets are starting:

• US commercial crude oil inventories down 1.4 million bbls
• refinery utilization: 90%
• gasoline production hit 9.9 million bbls/day -- just shy of the 10 million bbl threshold
• gasoline delivered was about 9.7 million bbls/day -- up about 4% YOY
• crude oil imports up slightly, to almost 8 million bopd; about an 8% increase YOY for past few weeks

Later, 10:02 a.m. Central Time: four of eight French refineries remain shut down; strike spreads; involves ports.  Just in time for tourist summer season. Paris shuts down in August.

Later, 9:58 a.m. Central Time: I thought it felt cooler. Wow, it seems like it is taking forever for summer to arrive here in North Texas. Another day of thunderstorms with a high of 79 degrees, and tomorrow only 78 degrees. It turns out the same thing in London. From Bloomberg: is it really summer? Natural gas trades like it's winter.

The only evidence it’s summer in Britain is the calendar.

The U.K. is as chilly as it was in parts of December, pushing the price of the nation’s main fuel for heating to the highest level in six months.

Same-day gas on the U.K.’s National Balancing Point market rose for a fifth consecutive day, gaining as much as 4.3 percent to the highest level since December 11, 2015.

Temperatures in the U.K. are forecast at 56 Fahrenheit for Thursday [today], colder than what it was six days before Christmas last year.

Later, 7:58 a.m. Central Time: first time claims for unemployment insurance dropped 1,000 to seasonally adjusted 267,000. Four-week average fell to 276,750. The spinmeisters though the numbers would be much worse due to the Verizon strike, previously posted. So, good news all around. 

Later, 7:41 a.m. Central Time: job growth "cooled" (their word, not mine, over at CNBC) in May -- private companies added 173,000 jobs; forecast by Reuters analysts "hoped for" (my word, not theirs) for 175,000 new jobs. May's numbers were slightly higher than the April numbers which were revised upward to 166,000 new jobs. These two most recent numbers are significantly below the 2016 average of 188,000.

Original Post

 

The following was done quickly; there will be typographical and factual errors. Some links may be broken. I will fix this post when I get some time.

After this post, my usual morning posts/blogging may be delayed until later today. Family commitments as the school year starts to wind down.

I might not see the jobs data until later today; or because of Memorial Day on Monday, maybe the government delays the data release until tomorrow. Same with "gasoline demand." So, we'll see. But we will eventually get to everything.

In the meantime, one might enjoy looking at some of the other websites/blogs I have linked at the  very bottom of the sidebar at the right. I completely missed that one of my favorite sites, "Grantland" was discontinued back in 2015. Google "grantland wiki" to find out why. Other links:

• this link is highlighted because it also highlights another blog I really like; quite coincidental
• this link has an interesting comment on North Dakota shale oil industry from an unexpected source
• a great, great post on Bill Nye, the Scientism Guy
• I loved this blog from the very beginning and it looks like this guy is still going strong
• Kaitlin took down her blog (I think when she got into law school, and/or got married; not sure of the backstory; I do have an idea why her blog traffic picked up for awhile); her blog, at one time, made my top 5 list

The "Obama video" that hit the internet yesterday -- and I posted earlier -- has gone viral. I will be posting it again. The video will get a lot of attention across talk radio today. The question is whether the president did this on purpose. I don't know. One can be sure he won't talk about it. He lost his teleprompter and couldn't get a sentence out. At least that's what "they" are saying down here in Texas. A Harvard-trained lawyer.

I see Sanders continues to ask Californians to ban fracking; to stay competitive, Hillary will have to hold her position on fracking -- in which she said in Detroit, she wants to do to fracking what this administration did to the coal industry. 

Active rigs:

	6/2/2016	06/02/2015	06/02/2014	06/02/2013	06/02/2012
Active Rigs	27	81	188	187	215

RBN Energy: would the Marcellus/Utica benefit from in-region ethane storage?

Speaking Of Thermometers -- May 19, 2016 -- Temperature At Grand Forks, ND, Dropped To 23 Degrees This Morning (Water Freezes At 32 Degrees)

I guess it depends where you put the thermometers when calculating the average global temperature. Iceagenow.com is reporting:

The temperature at the Grand Forks International Airport dropped to 23 degrees this morning, breaking its 1945 record of 24, according to the National Weather Service’s Grand Forks office.

The Friday low in Grand Forks dropped to 28 degrees, according to NWS, just shy of the 1945 record low of 25 but well below the average of 40.

The thermometer topped out at 46 degrees, according to NWS readings, below the average high of 67.

Snow fell sporadically throughout Friday morning and afternoon, though not enough for accumulation.

Meanwhile, Langdon, ND, reported a low of 19 degrees, the coldest temperature reported in the state. That was a possible record low, but NWS doesn’t keep records for many smaller communities, said meteorologist Vince Godon of the Grand Forks office.

Meanwhile, in India: 123.8 degrees Fahrenheit, somewhere in India; previous record, 123.08 degrees. According to the linked article, the heat will get worse over the next few days.

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Sports Authority To Close All Stores

Update, May 19, 2016: Sports Authority will close all stores.

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Job Watch

From advisorperspectives:

In the week ending May 14, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 278,000, a decrease of 16,000 from the previous week's unrevised level of 294,000. The 4-week moving average was 275,750, an increase of 7,500 from the previous week's unrevised average of 268,250.

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GDPNow: May 17, 2016 -- 2.5%

The GDPNow model forecast for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the second quarter of 2016 is 2.5 percent on May 17, down from 2.8 percent on May 13.

The second-quarter forecast for real residential investment growth declined from 5.3 to 2.5 percent after this morning's housing starts release from the U.S. Census Bureau, the forecast for real consumer spending growth ticked down from 3.7 percent to 3.6 percent after this morning's Consumer Price Index release from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, and the forecast for the contribution of inventory investment to second-quarter growth declined from -0.24 percentage points to -0.39 percentage points after this morning's industrial production release from the Federal Reserve.

The latter decline was concentrated in motor vehicle and parts dealers' inventories.

It's So Common, The Warmists Had To Tell Us It Was Common -- May 13, 2016

The warmists never give up, do they? Or perhaps better said, the warmists have infiltrated every weather report. This one was a classic.

Freezing weather, with or without snow, is being forecast for much of the US this weekend. It was a big story over at weather.com. But apparently it caught some weathermen by surprise, and apparently wanting to preempt deniers from snide remarks the warmists inserted this note (I can't make this stuff up):

Believe it or not, having near- or below-freezing temperatures in mid-May are not all that uncommon. Much of the Upper Midwest, Great Lakes, and New England typically don't see their last freeze until between April 30 and May 20, which appears to be on target this year.

Apparently not wanting to be scooped, this was from a Bill Nye tweet earlier this morning:

Believe it or not, the sun "came up" in the east this morning. That should not come as a surprise; it generally happens most days, and appeared to be on target again this morning. -- Bill Nye, The Science Guy

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To Quote Carl Sagan: Billions and Billions

Yup, that's how much MuskMelon will need to ramp up to 500,000 automobiles a week, or whatever number he comes up with next month. A few days ago Bloomberg, astute as ever, noted that it will take billions and billion of dollars for MuskMelon to meet his timeline:

Tesla Motors Inc. may raise billions of dollars by selling stock to accelerate production plans, betting the benefits will be enough to outweigh the dilution of the share price.

When Chief Executive Officer Elon Musk pulled ahead the electric-car company’s target to increase vehicle assembly to 500,000 a year to 2018 from 2020, he added that capital spending will increase by about 50 percent -- $750 million -- from the original budget for this year, which would probably require some fundraising.

Analyst Brian Johnson of Barclays projected a $3 billion equity raise sometime in the second quarter. At current stock prices, a transaction of that size would be about 14.5 million shares, an increase of 11 percent to the number of shares outstanding.

Actually, dilution by 10% is not that big a deal for a young, growing company. We saw it all the time in the Bakken during the boom as operators raised cash to expedite drilling.

We saw how that worked out. 

Sunday Morning Openings -- April 17, 2016; Regional Ski Shop, 47 Stores, Succumb To Lack Of Snow, Global Warming

Back on April 6, 2016, I had a short blurb on The Obama Doctrine aka "we're sitting this one out." It appears the folks over at The Boston Globe finally got around to reading the article and agree with me: the Obama Doctrine has made the world more dangerous.

When you have The Boston Globe opining that Obama's foreign policy has made the world more dangerous and McKinsey and Consulting opining that Obama's only domestic "success" is a huge failure, it's hard to find much positive about how historians will eventually summarize the Obama years. I assume it will be in Section IV: Failed Presidencies.

Anyway, whatever, back to The Boston Globe op-ed today:

But Obama is better at deploring other people’s foreign policy messes than at learning from them. The lesson he takes away from the Iraq war was that the United States has no business intervening militarily in the Middle East — and that the greater the intervention, the greater the resulting fiasco. The facts haven’t borne out that conclusion. But Obama won’t be budged.

Fathomless ignorance. Their words not mine.

So much more at the link, but time to move on.

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North Dakota Ethanol Plant Out Of Debt; Showing A Profit

The Dickinson Press is reporting:

RICHARDTON -- The Red Trail Energy ethanol plant is heading into the 2016 farming season free of debt and with its sights on the future.

The nine-year-old investor-led company, which crushed corn into more than 54 million gallons of ethanol last year, informed investors at the company’s annual meeting March 17 that it had paid off its final $5.5 million in debt.

“I think it was a surprise for them,” Red Trail Energy CEO Gerald Bachmeier said. “I don’t think it was expected.”

Red Trail Energy was scheduled to be paid off over the next three years.

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Another Connecticut Company Calls It Quits

Meanwhile, out in Los Angeles, Sports Chalet is closing all stores and stopping all on-line sales, I guess, which is another way to say Sport Chalet has gone out of business. I think I've spent half of my life in the US out in California and I don't recall ever seeing a Sports Chalet. They must have been located in the more upscale parts of the metropolis. The Los Angeles Times is reporting:

The regional chain, which was purchased in 2014 by a Connecticut company named Vestis Retail Group, will remain open for several weeks while merchandise is cleared out, Sport Chalet said on its website.

Sport Chalet started in 1959 when German immigrants Norbert and Irene Olberz bought a tiny La Cañada Flintridge ski shop, which they built into a publicly traded retailer with more than 50 locations.

On Saturday, the struggling sporting goods chain began going-out-of-business sales at its 47 stores and closed its online sales operation.

I assume global warming and the lack of snow led to the demise of this ski shop. 

Chinese Surging Oil Demand Saving OPEC's Butt -- The Telegraph -- April 16, 2016; Bill Nye: First We Need To Jail Climate Deniers

Note: my thoughts on the upcoming Doha meeting tomorrow at this link. 

This is really pretty cool. The other day I wrote:

Earlier today it was reported that OPEC forcast non-OPEC production falling faster than predicted, from 700,000 bopd to 730,000 bopd or about a 0.03 percent change. LOL.

As soon as I read that, I knew that the price of oil rests on the Chinese and the Indian economy. Right on cue, Bloomberg/Rigzone report: China’s crude imports climbed to a record in the first quarter as higher refining margin encouraged refiners to boost purchases.

A reader sent me this link from The Telegraph: soaring Chinese crude oil demand is saving OPEC's butt.

A dramatic build-up in China’s strategic petroleum reserve and surging demand for imported crude oil are likely to transform the global energy markets this year, regardless of any production freeze agreed by OPEC and Russia this weekend.

Chinese credit stimulus and a 20 percent rise in public spending has set off a fresh mini-cycle of growth that is already sucking in oil imports at a much faster pace than expected.

Barclays estimates that the country will import an average of 8 million barrels per day this year, a huge jump from 6.7 million bopdlast year. This is arguably enough to soak up a big chunk of the excess supply currently flooding global markets.

Standard Chartered said Chinese imports could reach 10 million bopd by the end on 2018, implying a supply crunch and a fresh spike in oil prices as the market is turned on its head.

Energy consultancy Wood Mackenzie says $400 billion in oil and gas projects have been shelved [worldwide] since the onset of the commodity slump. A great number of depleting fields will not be replaced.

Feifei Li, Barclay’s oil analyst, said China is in a rush to fill four new storage sites of its petroleum reserve coming available this year. “It is an urgent priority of the government to fill up the tanks while the price of oil is cheap,” he said.

Fresh storage is likely to average 250,000 bopd, five times the level last year. The pace will rise further in the second half of the year.

China is building vast underground rock caverns in the interior of the country as a top national security priority, fully aware of the way Japan was squeezed by the US fuel embargo in the late 1930s. It aims to boost reserves to 550 million barrels and ensure a 90-day buffer to resist an external supply shock.

China’s own output of oil has fallen by 200,000 bopd over the last year as PetroChina and Sinopec slash investment, while demand has continued to grow.

So much more at the article. Worth archiving.

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Bill Nye: We Need To Jail Climate Deniers

First we start with the weather men. Accuweather is reporting: Powerful April snowstorm to bury Colorado Rockies, High Plains this weekend.

A slow-moving, strengthening storm will cause snowfall to ramp up over a large part of the Rockies and to spread over part of the High Plains this weekend.

People in the region, including the Denver area, should be prepared for travel disruptions, power outages and property damage.

Get Ready For "The Rush" -- "Fast And Furious" To Coin A Phrase -- Lynn Helms -- April 16, 2016

Oil price. Reuters is reporting that Iran will not be attending the meeting in Doha Sunday, April 17, 2016. This is probably why the price of oil dropped a bit on Friday. Also, John Kemp tweeted that the oil production freeze, if any, will "underwhelm." My thoughts and predictions:

• Iran not showing up will ensure the meeting is less contentious than it otherwise would be
• if the "negotiating, working table" is rectangular, the head of the Saudi delegation will sit across from the head of the Russian delegation
• for the photo-op, the head of the Saudi delegation and the head of the Russian delegation will be side-by-side; there will be a lot of discussion who stands on the left; if Putin is there for the photo op he will consider standing on his tiptoes 
• the meeting will start with a video of Russian jets taking out ISIS sites in Syria
• lamb on couscous will be the main course, along with goat milk yogurt
• Kuwait will be the spoiler
• on only one issue will there be 100% consensus: Iran is irrelevant with regard to oil production
• Iraq is also irrelevant but will speak with authority
• Monday, the price of oil will drop 5% before it stabilizes and recovers a bit
• Hillary and Bernie will not change their stance on fracking which they both want banned

In addition to Iran not attending, there are strong rumors that Lynn Helms will not be able to make the trip. He will be approving new permits for the Bakken, and noting that month-over-month oil production in North Dakota has remained steady. He will also note that Hess has shipped North Dakota light sweet oil to Europe which is noteworthy for two reasons:

• it is the first such overseas shipment for North Dakota light sweet oil
• the tanker, on which it was shipped, did not explode en route despite the well-publicized high volatility of Bakken crude oil

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Fast And Furious

The Bismarck Tribune is reporting:

WILLISTON – North Dakota’s top oil regulator had a message for Williston leaders this week: Get ready.

When – not if – oil prices increase, drilling crews will be back in the Bakken eager to make up for lost time, said Director of Mineral Resources Lynn Helms.

“This is going to come back pretty hard and pretty rapidly,” Helms said told members of Williston’s Chamber of Commerce. “And we’ll be back running to stay ahead of it.”

Helms told city leaders he projects Williston will support 40,000 permanent oil jobs by 2050, which could mean a population of more than 80,000. Williston’s current population is estimated to be about 30,000.

The "event" was no doubt sponsored by "Man-Camps of America."

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An Opportunity For Bill Nye, The Science Guy, To Explain 

The Phenomenon Of Snow

The folks in Bellemont, Arizona, woke to find seven (7) inches of snowing blanketing their town this morning.

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AP Headline: Read Carefully

"Pope planning to take back 12 Lesbos refugees to the Vatican."

The headline was from "Breaking News" earlier this morning. Honestly, the first time scanning down the page, I misread it. 

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A Note To The Granddaughters

Granddaughter #2, a 9-year-old, fourth grader, has been scouted by local soccer coaches and will "sign a contract" in July for the team she will be on for the next year. Yes, they take sports very, very seriously here in Texas.

That same #2 granddaughter participated in an egg-drop contest yesterday in which fourth- and fifth-graders were challenged to come up with a protective container in which they were to place a raw egg, which would then be dropped from a height, to see if the egg would land unbroken.

No doubt this is how Elon Musk got his start in the world of reusable launch vehicles.

Our granddaughter came up with two designs. One was a clever cage made with half-a-dozen or so big straws put together in such a way to form a protective pyramidal-cage. For good measure, she also had the descent slowed by a crude, albeit somewhat effective parachute. That one worked. the principal dropped the eggs from the room of the two-story school.

She also concocted some kind of "non-Newtonian" fluid -- yes, she specifically talked about a "non-Newtonian fluid" on the way to school with me -- the contest said "water or liquids" could not be used. She asked her principal if a "non-Newtonian fluid" was allowed, and apparently it was. She entered that design also, but it sounds like it was never tested. 

We're Backsliding, Folks -- April 6, 2016

We're not making progress, folks. Everyone should boycott automobiles every Friday. Atmospheric CO2:

Minnesota is doing its part, but it's not helping.

Backslider's Wine, Jerry Jeff Walker  

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Fact, Fantasy, and Insanity

Insanity: from Bloomberg, seven hours ago -- Wind and Solar Are Crushing Fossil Fuels.

Fantasy: from CNBC -- Elon warns against shorting Tesla shares.

Fact: from The Los Angeles Times -- California braces for summer blackouts. Not enough fossil fuel energy. I can't make this stuff up.

All the leaves are brown, and the skies are grey --

California Dreamin', Mamas and Papas

Wow! GDP Forecast Plummets -- Cut Almost In Half From Measly 0.7 To Near-Negative At 0.4 -- April 5, 2016

From GDP Now (a dynamic link):

The GDPNow model forecast for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the first quarter of 2016 is 0.4 percent on April 5, down from 0.7 percent on April 1.

After yesterday morning's light vehicle sales release from the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis and the manufacturing report from the U.S. Bureau of the Census, the forecast for real GDP growth declined from 0.7 percent to 0.4 percent due to declines in the forecasts for real consumer spending growth and real equipment investment growth. The forecast for real GDP growth remained at 0.4 percent after this morning's international trade report from the U.S. Census Bureau, as a slight decline in the forecast for real net exports was offset by a slight increase in the forecast of real equipment investment growth.

"Measly": contemptibly small or few.

Meanwhile, Yahoo!Finance has this headline: Olive Garden just confirmed an exciting trend underlying the job market.

The exciting trend: the percent of waiters/waitresses leaving Olive Garden jobs is increasing.

I can't make this stuff up. It's a sad commentary.

And then look at the numbers:

That report also noted that the total quits rate for the month also rose to 2.1%, up from the previous month’s 2.0%, which reflects increasing worker confidence. 

And that's the basis for the headline. What an incredibly lame story.  

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The Kennedy Clan Won't Have Far To Go This Week To See Snow

Speaking of trends, IceAgeNow is reporting:

Sunday’s 6.6 inches of snowfall sets a new record for the snowiest April 3 ever in Syracuse, New York, more than doubling the previous record of 2.5 inches set in 1937.

Sunday also ranks as the fourth-snowiest day on record for the entire month of April in Syracuse. The most was 10.5 inches, on April 2, 2013.

The beginning of a trend? So, the snowiest April day on record occurred just three years ago, and now comes the 4th snowiest April day on record. Are we seeing the beginning of a trend here?

We probably are, but it will never be reported by the mainstream media. They are focused on the Olive Garden "quit rate," surging from 2.0% to 2.1% in one month.

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For The Record

Once an avid Donald Trump supporter, I no longer support him. I don't support Ted Cruz either. At this point I've pretty much lost interest in the primaries, both parties.  I'll still tell my wife that I support the Donald just to drive her nuts.

US Crude Oil Stocks Continue To Climb -- March 23, 2016

For the Kennedy patriarch who thought the grandkids would never see snow again, breaking news now:

• Denver International Airport sets new daily snowfall record with 12.1 inches of snow recorded today, breaking previous daily record of 8 inches set in 2010

• Record-breaking 15 inches of snow in Boulder, CO, as storm continues
• Denver International Airport closed 'until further notice' as blizzard hits area; Pena Boulevard is impassable

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Trends

Some big things are happening. Some of these no doubt are being driven by a) ObamaCare; and, b) the increasing cost of electricity (due to state-mandated wind and solar energy). When I read this, I wonder if it makes sense to hire tens of thousands employees (all of whom are liability threats, and all of whom are required to have ObamaCare) and pay outrageous utility bills due to solar farms or simply outsource that to iCloud, Google, or Amazon. From Business Insider:

This does not mean that Netflix is abandoning Amazon for Google, given that only last month, [Netflix] finished a massive decade-long project to shut down its own data centers and use Amazon's cloud exclusively to run its business. (Netflix's move to go all-in on Amazon has encouraged others to do the same, including tech companies like Juniper and Intuit.)

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Columbo

My go-to DVD-watching in the evening is the television series, Columbo. I have the first four seasons and watch them off and on, every so often.

While bike riding I like to think of my favorite episodes. This is what it comes down to:

• the episodes with Jack Cassidy are my favorite (he was in two or three)
• the episodes with Robert Culp are my second group of favorites (Culp was also in two or three)
• the one with the symphony conductor and the Hollywood Bowl
• the one with the actress who buried her husband in the back yard under the fountain 
• the one with the exploding cigar
• the one with Dick Van Dyke
• the one with Robert Conrad 
• maybe the one with the twin brothers
• The first two (Jack Cassidy / Robert Culp) are likely to remain at the top. The others will move around, some moving back and forth from the list

So, let's see what others say.

Best episodes of Columbo:

• "Murder by the Book," Jack Cassidy (yes, this may be my favorite, also)
• "Now You See Him," Season 5 -- I haven't seen it
• "Any Old Port in a Storm," yest that was good; I had forgotten it; has to be in my top ten list
• "Swan Song," Johnny Cash -- one of my least favorites, but I can see why it made the list
• "Double Exposure," with Robert Culp
• "An Exercise in Fatality," with Rober Culp
• "A Stitch in Crime," yes, another good one, with Spock
• "Negative Reaction," with Dick Van Dyke
• "Etude in Black," as noted above in my list
• "Death Lends a Hand," with Robert Culp

Another top-10 list:

• "Murder by the Book," Jack Cassidy (yes, this may be my favorite, also) -- shows up #1 again
• "Blueprint for Murder," yes, one of my favorites
• "Etude in Black," as noted above in my list
• "A Friend in Need," yes, I agree; I had forgotten
• "Identity Crisis," season 5, I haven't seen
• "The Bye-Bye Sky High IQ Murder Case," season 6, I haven't seen
• "Try and Catch Me, season 7, I haven't seen
• Columbo Goes to the Guillotine, season 8, I haven't seen
• "Butterfly in Shades of Grey," season 12 -- are you kidding, 12 seasons? I haven't seen

At IMDB:

• "Murder by the Book," led the list again

Marketwatch, also has a list of five

• "Murder by the Book" is not even on the top 5

Columbophile

• "Murder by the Book" was #5
• "The Bye-Bye Sky High IQ Murder Case," was #1; Jamie Lee Curtis made her screen debut in this one as a surly young waitress who confiscates Columbo's donut

Most of the top ten lists are similar and the preponderance of "best" episodes occur in the first four seasons. 

US Distillates Exported To Northwest Europe From US Gulf Coast Have Surged This Month (March) -- March 21, 2016

Tweeting now:  US EIA data likely to show crude oil stocks increase for week ended Friday, gasoline stocks down. 

Original Post

Platts is reporting:

A total of 1,320,000 mt of distillates have been loaded in the US Gulf Coast for discharge in Europe during March, Platts has estimated, based on data from cFlow, Platts trade flow software.

The figure was about twice the level of the previous estimate, pointing to increased volumes of product loaded in recent weeks.

"The US arb is open", a trader said, driven by "cheaper freight and raised ULSD diff in Europe".

According to the estimate, 11 of the cargoes due to land in March are headed to the Northwest European market, while 18 have set sail towards the Mediterranean.

The article at the link provides more background.

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In Like A Lamb, Out Like A Lion

Even as the UN says there is a huge amount of global warming going on right now, central United States is bracing itself for yet another blizzard:

Potential for blizzard conditions in some areas.

“The heaviest snow is likely to fall from central Nebraska through northern Iowa, central Wisconsin and northern Michigan, where 6-12 inches may fall."

Late in the week, the storm could then move on to parts of Ontario, Quebec, perhaps northern New York and New England.

The Kennedy clan can't win for losing. As they say. 

Marathon (MRO) To Sell Wyoming Assets; Continue Focus On North Dakota, Texas; Easter -- March 21, 2016; Apple Back At #1

From the Casper StarTribune: MRO is selling its Wyoming assets, some data points:

• MRO had been in Wyoming for more than a century
• in Wyoming, interests had been focused around older fields in the Big Horn and Wind River basins, heavy, sour crude
• looking for $1 billion
• had been third-largest producer in Wyoming

The article also noted that Anadarko Petroleum had greatly reduced its presence in Wyoming also. 

This is a huge opportunity for a multi-billionaire with over-valued assets in other areas (such as art, wine, antiques) to monetize, and build a new fortune in oil.

$1 billion / 7.2 million bbls produced in 2015 = $138/bbl.

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The Apple Page

From USA Today:

The rally in Apple has been enough to push it back past Google parent Alphabet as the world's most valuable company at $587 billion, a title it briefly lost earlier this year.

Alphabet shares are up too, rising nearly 5% over the past 30 days. But even with that gain, Alphabet has slipped behind Apple with a market value of $514 billion.

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Easter Snow In Boston

After a heavy overnight snowfall in Boston, the Kennedy clan does not have to leave town for Easter this year to see snow.

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A Note To the Granddaughters

I'm continuing to read Doctor Zhivago by Boris Pasternak. The number of things I learn seems to be endless.

I finally understand how "they" determine when Easter is to be celebrated.

First, start with two eggs, a cup of milk, and two cups of Bisquick. My mistake, that's how I start when making the perfect pancake ... Easter ..

First start with the spring equinox, when the length of daylight and the length of darkness are about equal -- that would be easy for the shepherds.

When that day/night occurs, then watch for the first full moon. That would be really, really easy for the shepherds.

Easter would then be that very next Sunday. And that's all there is to it. Almost as easy as making pancakes.

Pentecost falls fifty days later ("fifty" from "five" from "penta"). If "fifty" days seems odd, then another way to remember Pentecost, is seven (7) Sundays after Easter, which would be pretty easy to count.

The Pentecost feast is also called Whit Sunday in some countries (particularly Great Britain), and Whit Monday is often a public holiday.

In Doctor Zhivago, Lara and Pasha were married on Whit Monday.

For someone like me, I could imagine in old age forgetting what comes first, Pentecost or Easter, but because of Doctor Zhivago it's unlikely I will ever forget. If one is going to get married in Siberia, would be it be better to schedule your wedding/reception at Easter or on Whit Monday? Well, duh -- fifty days before Easter it's going to be a blizzard of a day in Siberia -- better to wait another seven Sundays and get into a bit of warmer weather.

My NCAA Bracket Was Ripped To Shreds When Two #5 Teams Were Each Beaten By #12 Teams On First Day Of Tournament -- March 17, 2016

Baylor loses to Yale, and Purdue loses to UALR. That would be Little Rock, Arkansas. Nice article on the upsets at CNN.

I see Jim Cramer, who a couple of days ago said not to buy into this market, is now telling us he sees a big rally around the corner. He may be a nominee for the 2016 Geico Rock Award.

Today, near the close:

According to The Los Angeles Times, the EPA says southern California's smog-fighting plan failed. No problem. California will vote for Hillary Clinton who will pretty much tax everything that moves, and will ban the rest.

All the liberal newspapers are blaming the GOP for following the process, not principle. The GOP is simply following the "Biden Rule."

Global warming? Boston could see huge snowstorm Sunday evening; could start snowing during St Patrick's Day Parade. This year the parade is all about Gay Pride.

Scorpio Rising, Kenneth Anger

Saudi Arabia Orders Ministries To Cut At Least 5% In Spending -- March 14, 2016

Tweeting now: Saudi Arabia orders 5% cut in contract spending. Reuters:

Saudi Arabia's government, its finances strained by low oil prices, is opening a fresh austerity drive by ordering ministries to cut their spending on contracts by at least 5 percent, a document seen by Reuters shows.

The spending cuts could further slow economic growth in the world's top oil exporter and hurt the construction industry, where many companies are struggling with deteriorating cash flow and rising labor costs. 

The document, sent by the central government to all ministries and state bodies, instructs them to reduce the value of outstanding contracts signed to support their operations, as well as construction contracts included in the 2016 state budget, by "not less than 5 percent of remaining obligations".

Didn't North Dakota mandate a 4% cut in state spending?

Tweeting now: OPEC, Russia likely to meet in April over production. Bloomberg/Rigzone:

Ministers from some members of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries had suggested that such a meeting would take place this month in Russia.

The talks are now most likely to occur in Qatar’s capital Doha, said three of the delegates, who asked not to be identified because the matter isn’t public.

The probability that Doha will play to host the meeting is high as Qatar is president of the OPEC ministerial conference this year, even as Russia is the country that called for the meeting, two of the delegates said.

The meeting may still not take place if there aren’t many important producers attending and agreeing beforehand to freeze production, three delegates said. 

OPEC data points for 2016. Link here.

• OPEC raises 2016 non-OPEC oil supply estimate by 110,000 bopd to 56.39 million bopd
• OPEC maintains previous forecast of 700,000 bopd year-on-year contraction after revising 2015 figures
• OPEC raised non-OPEC oil supply growth for 2015 (last year) by 110,000 bopd - 1.42 million bopd for an average of 57.09 million bodp
• OPEC notes: in the US -- a reduction in production costs; increased hedging; producers choosing to produce with losses rather than stopping production
• finally: after rising 910,000 bopd last year, OECD Americas' oil supply is expected to see the biggest regional decline this year globally at 480,000 bopd

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Speed Reading

It hit 89 degrees this afternoon; it didn't feel that warm. It was very dry and lots of wind. A beautiful day for reading Doctor Zhivago.

Meanwhile, speaking of Doctor Zhivago, unexpectedly strong winter has returned with a vengeance in the land of Putin:

Freezing poses a risk in the southern European territory.

In the Krasnodar region and Adygea on the nights of 13 and 14 March the ground froze and air temperatures dropped to -1, -2 degrees. The freeze poses a risk to early blossoming apricots and plums.

Morning frost could also endanger emerging winter wheat seedlings.

Continued cooling is forecast for 15 and 16 March in the south of Russia in the Krasnodar Region. On March 15 temperatures are expected to drop to -3 degrees, and on Wednesday -4 degrees is possible in Adygea.