Monday, September 30, 2024

Famous Deaths Come In "Three's" -- Here's The Third -- Pete Rose, Age 83 -- September 30, 2024

Locator: 48445ARCHIVES.

Deaths: Dame Maggie Smith (89); Kris Kristofferson (88); Pete Rose (83).

Israel: begins ground operations into Lebanon. 

This is absolutely fascinating. And one gets the feeling Netanyahu's timing could not have been more fortuitous. The US military backs Israel to the hilt. The US president, probably ambivalent, is more than a lame duck. His vice president, incredibly ambivalent but knows not why, won't take a stand with only 30-some days left before the election. Netanyahu's window of opportunity has opened and will remain open until January 20, 2025. 

It looks like geopolitics and Mother Nature finally caught up to the Biden administration. Two shooting wars -- Ukraine and Israel -- and a bigger concern, China? The latter just fired a ballistic missile into the Pacific -- the first such public test in decades.

And, then, of course, the clean-up from Hurricane Helene will easily carry us through the election -- with every incumbent from Florida to Ohio at risk if the federal and state response goes badly. Rick Scott, Florida, looks particularly vulnerable.

A port strike on the east coast stretching down to Texas? 

One can only imagine what Rocket Man (Kim Jong Un) might be thinking. 

US equities: AAPL had an incredible day, did not give up any gains even after hours. Might this be the reason?

Shares of Apple, currently the most valuable company in the world, closed just shy of their all-time high on Monday. Apple’s stock price rose 2.3% to $233 on the last day of the quarter. That is less than 1% below its record close on July 16, 2024 of $234.82. 

The stock has risen during four of the last five trading days and is up 21% year to date, about the same as the Nasdaq Composite and slightly ahead of the S&P 500’s 20% rise. 

It wasn’t immediately clear what caused the gains, but a Morgan Stanley report on Monday pointed to stabilizing lead times for some models of the iPhone 16, which was announced September 9, 2024. 

“While this doesn’t change our view on this cycle, we view the elongation of iPhone 16 Pro/Pro Max lead times as a positive leaning development worth watching,” the report noted. The analysts rate Apple as Overweight and a top pick.

Much more at the linked article. The camera "is selling" the phone, and AI is yet to roll out. This will be fascinating to watch.

Bidenonimcs In Two Charts -- September 30, 2024

Locator: 48444ECONOMY.

S&P 500, link here:

US S&P 5000 vs Shanghai Composite, link here:


More charts here.

And still more charts here.

And, the best recent set here.

Oasis With Four New Permits; Four DUCs Reported As Completed -- September 30, 2024

Locator: 48443B.

Tag: beer.

The history of pilsner: link here.

*************************
Back to the Bakken

WTI: $68.36.

Active rigs: 38.

Four new permits, #41187 - #41190, inclusive:

  • Operator: Oasis
  • Field: Tioga (Williams)
  • Comments:
    • Oasis has permits for four Vernon wells, SWNW 34-157-95; to be sited 270 FWL and at the following distances FNL: 2193; 2226; 2292; and, 2325. Three of the wells will be the standard 1280-acre spacing unit; the fourth somewhat larger:
      • sections 34 / 35-157-95 = 1280 acres
      • section 5 = 640 acres
      • W/2 W/2 (160) and W/2 E/2 W/2 (80) of section 4 = 240 acres (?)
      • E/2 W/2 of section 6 = 160 acres
      • total = 2,176 acres (?)

The map, for #41190:

Producing wells (DUCs) reported as completed:

  • 40167, 3,828, MRO, Vondall USA 12-20TFH, McKenzie,
  • 40250, 2,733, CLR, Benner 2-7HSL, Dunn,
  • 40251, 1,957, CLR, Benner 3-7H, Dunn,
  • 40257, 1,693, CLR, Chase 4-18H, Dunn,

Autos -- The Big Story This Year -- But Not For Good Reasons -- September 30, 2024

Locator: 48442EVS.

Tag: autos hurricane Helene port strikes silver

Silver: how big a deal is the Chinese stimulus? It's a big deal. Silver was already heading for historic highs, but now there's talk of an epic breakout for silver. Whoo-hoo!

Autos: CNBC had long interview with Mark Fields, former Ford president and CEO, on American autos --- Ford has / had the wrong answer .... maybe we'll come back to this. Hint: the Chinese are marketing a $10,000 EV.

On another note, back on September 26, 2023, Biden made history, walking with workers striking the automakers.

Now President Biden and VP Harris have a chance to walk the picket lines with those striking the East Coast and GoM ports.

The Europeans -- especially the European car makers -- are going to get crushed. Think Lego. Lego already has had a huge back-order problem due to shipping issues. Except for autos, Lego, and high-cost purses, I can't think of much coming from Europe that catches my attention. Had this been on the west coast ---

China, US west coast ports, UNP are going to do very, very well. 

This is the week to watch tickers -- one will quickly see which companies will be the winners and which will be the losers due to this strike at the ports. Me? Not worried. 

The bigger story? The devastation from Hurricane Helene from northwestern Florida through the Carolinas into Tennessee and even into Ohio. What an opportunity -- an responsibility -- for American "know-how" to get supplies into these devastated regions. Having said that, one analyst says the devastation was horrendous, but not as bad as Ian (September 28, 2022) two years ago.

Apple: The Wild-Spending Days Are Over -- September 30, 2024

Locator: 48441AAPL.

Tag: Apple.

And to think at one time, some analysts wanted Apple to acquire Disney. Ouch. And even more analysts have recommended selling AAPL. Cramer? Nope: he says "own" AAPL, don't trade it.

The market close today:

Ticker:


What's going on?

What else? It looks like the CEO and the CFO had a "come to Jesus meeting" with the wild-spending folks. That decade is over. Link here. Finally they get it.

Disney:

Disney vs Apple:

Vs NVDA last six months.

Hezbollah -- September 30, 2024

Locator: 48440MIDEAST.

Never quit reading.

The Atlantic, Hussein Ibish, September 30, 2024, analysis: link here.  

We've seen this movie before: the Greco-Persian wars, fifth and sixth centuries BCE

The Greco-Persian Wars, Peter Green, with a new introduction, c. 1996. A revised edition of Xerxes at Salamis, 1970. Notes here.

**************************
Russia: History

Link here. If I was a bit more interested, and had a bit more time for reading, this would be at the top of my list: Timothy Snyder on how the collapse of the Soviet Union took America by surprise. What freedom means in moments of economic and political transformation.

Cleaning Off The Desktop -- September 30, 2024

Locator: 48439INV.

Screenshots from last week:





Mystery solved:

Someone doesn't know their geography!



Last Day Of The Third Quarter -- Entering The Holiday Season -- Halloween, Thanksgiving, Winter Break And New Year's -- September 30, 2024

Locator: 48438B.

Most surprising: the little mainstream press that Hurricane Helene seemed to have gotten over the past few days in the media that I follow compared to how bad this storm was. 

It looks like this may go down as the worst hurricane ever -- but it was a flooding event -- and insurance does not cover flooding. USAA getting claims from as far north as Ohio. USAA has gotten more claims in the first four days than they got from Ian and Michael. Many homeowners had no house insurance whatsoever. Once the mortgage is paid off -- and that's common in this area -- folks are not required have house insurance. Will add to the housing crisis already in place in the US. So far, not much action from the Biden administration or FEMA according to media I follow.

The port strike: no formal talks have been held since last June. There will be winners and losers. It will be interesting to follow UNP and BRK (proxy for Burlington Northern). UNP is up slightly today; BRK-B is down.

AAPL: not on my bingo card today -- AAPL up almost $4.00 today. 

WTI: negative overnight but as all-out war looks more likely in the Mideast, WTI is creeping up this morning.

***************************
Back to the Bakken

WTI: $68.81.

Tuesday, October 1, 2024: 4 for the month; 4 for the quarter, 518 for the year
40330, conf, Hess, EN-Lonetree Farm-LW-156-94-0805H-1,
38260, conf, Hess, BB-Olson-150-95-0817H-6, Blue Buttes, BB-Olson Wells (Hess, Blue Buttes) and now, here, as of September,2023. Big wells.
37824, conf, Enerplus, Vulpes 149-93-10A-15H,
37819, conf, Enerplus, Troop 149-93-10B-15H-LL,

Monday, September 30, 2024: 62 for the month; 190 for the quarter, 514 for the year
40238, conf, Hess, BL-Kerbaugh-LW-156-96-3427H-1, Beaver Lodge, oldest oil field in North Dakota.
37825, conf, Enerplus, Kit 149-93-10A-15H, Mandaree, results somewhat disappointing.

RBN Energy: midstream consolidation in the DJ Basin. Not archived.

The Denver-Julesburg Basin isn’t the Permian — no argument there. But like its much bigger brother in West Texas and southeastern New Mexico, the DJ Basin has been a hotbed of M&A in both the upstream and midstream sectors. Among DJ producers, Chevron, Civitas Resources and Occidental Petroleum (Oxy) are now the top dogs, with big hopes for the future there. And, as we’ll discuss in today’s RBN blog, a handful of midstreamers have taken on leading roles in crude oil and gas gathering (and processing) in Weld County, CO, the heart of the basin.

Sunday, September 29, 2024

Veren, Inc -- First Note On The Blog -- September 29, 2024

Locator: 48437B.

Folks may have noticed a new name in the box below as part of an earlier blog today:

If one goes to the Crescent Point webpage one will find that Crescent Point trades under two tickers: CPG and VRN.

From deals in the Bakken -- 2023:

Meanwhile, Crescent Point will now rebrand to Veren, according to Hart Energy:

A "well search" over at the NDIC webpage does not yet list Veren. 

There is a note out there that although Veren is only drilling in Canada at the moment, there are indications that Veren may return to the Three Forks "south of the border" -- i.e., North Dakota. 

Personal Finance -- Not Ready For Prime Time -- September 29, 2024

Locator: 48436PERSINV.

This is a personal note as part of a conversation with one of my extended family members. Four extended family members -- including the individual to whom this note was addressed and myself -- are undertaking a formal personal finance course.

Remember: I'm 73 years old and have been investing for decades.

To an extended family member, not ready for prime time, under the break.

********************************
Personal Finance

Dear _____

I've mentioned that "personal finance course" that four of us are taking.

You have no idea how helpful the "personal finance course" has been for me. Seriously.

Two big things:

1. It gave me an opportunity to take another look at how I approach investing and am now passing this information to [other extended family members]. From my blog as a direct result of the "personal finance course":

https://themilliondollarway.blogspot.com/2024/09/it-really-can-make-difference-comparing.html

2. The one thing I was missing was "Mint."  I was completely unaware of "Mint" but now I know that "Mint" is/was part of the large family of "account aggregators."

I found googling Rocket Money vs Mint vs Schwab quite helpful.

One of the hits was a "Reddit" hit -- I can't think of a much less credible site than Reddit (LOL) but it does provide a starting point for folks like me who don't understand a particular subject, in this case, "account aggregators" or "Mint" or Rocket Money.

As you know, I am very partial to Schwab and Schwab offers this service. From Reddit:


One comment that jumped out, of course, posted nine months ago:
I use Schwab for aggregation and have 30+ accounts linked. It works fine if you just want to see balances, your net worth, and positions for investment accounts. You can use the Portfolio Checkup Tool to run portfolio reports on your Schwab plus non-Schwab investment accounts. Also, the linked accounts flow through to your financial plan at Schwab, which is primarily what I use the aggregator for.

I was a devout Mint user for 10+ years, and I'm currently looking for a replacement for that. Schwab is nice if all you need is aggregation of balances and for running holistic portfolio reports and financial planning. But Mint was good at the micro-budgeting level--like aggregating transactions, too, and I used Mint's budgets and goals tools, so that's what I'm looking for. No brokerage firm is going to have the level of detail Mint had, since that's a full-time business keeping up with all the software issues for customers (and it doesn't make Schwab or any brokerage firm any money), so I imagine this needs to be a standalone budgeting site that's meant for this like Mint was.

Empower was also mentioned but I won't add yet another financial website if Schwab offers the same service.
 
*************************
Again, Not Ready For Prime Time
Audience: Extended Family Members

**********************************
Disclaimer
Brief Reminder 

  • NOTE: content and typographical errors may increase due to a number of factors. I correct them when I find them. But if something seems wrong or doesn't make sense, it's likely to be a typographical error as anything else. (Updated: September 28, 2024).
  • I am inappropriately exuberant about the US economy and the US market.
  • I am also inappropriately exuberant about all things Apple. 
  • See disclaimer. This is not an investment site. 
  • Disclaimer: this is not an investment site. Do not make any investment, financial, job, career, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here. All my posts are done quickly: there will be content and typographical errors. If anything on any of my posts is important to you, go to the source. If/when I find typographical / content errors, I will correct them. 
  • Reminder: I am inappropriately exuberant about the US economy and the US market.
  • I am also inappropriately exuberant about all things Apple. 
  • And now, Nvidia, also. I am also inappropriately exuberant about all things Nvidia.  

Devon - Grayson Mill -- September 29, 2024

Locator: 48435B.

Devon closed on its Grayson Mill deal on Friday, September 27, 2024.  

The announcement last July, 2024.

From the blog: last July, 2024.

How the complexion of the Bakken changes with the Devon - Grayson Mill deal. Link here.

The agreement with Grayson Mill adds 307,000 net acres and 100 Mboe/d of production (55% oil) to Devon in North Dakota and Montana. The package includes 500 gross locations and 300 refrac candidates, plus ownership in 950 miles of gathering lines for gas, water and crude.

The deal by DVN is the latest in a consolidation wave that will winnow the Bakken oil patch down to only eight main operators by the end of 2024. These eight producers will account for 80% of the basin’s 1.3 MMb/d of crude oil production.

A year ago, 11 companies produced at least 50 Mb/d of oil in the Bakken, of which only seven were public. By YE24, these 11 companies will consolidate into eight; one merger has closed and three are pending. Currently, there are only six public companies out of 130 producers in the play.

Nothing new here, just clearing off the desktop. 

Production Data For Wells Coming Off Confidential List This Next Week -- September 29, 2024

Locator: 48434B.

The wells:

  • 29659, conf, Grayson Mill, Moberg Federal 149-95-29-32-1H, Bear Den,
DateOil RunsMCF Sold
7-20242477540939
6-20242745843545
5-20241834914019
  • 37821, conf, Enerplus, Canidae 149-93-10B-15H, Mandaree,
DateOil RunsMCF Sold
7-20242716
6-202454693655
5-20243476429481
4-20242604323106
  • 40308, conf, Phoenix Operating, Young 5-6-1-0H-LL Brug,
DateOil RunsMCF Sold
7-2024181924418
6-20241990417225
5-20241398211577
4-2024107597108
  • 38206, conf, Petroshale, Bear Chase North 2TFH, Spotted Horn, npd,
  • 29658, conf, Grayson Mill, Moberg Federal 149-95-29-32-13HLW, Bear Den,
DateOil RunsMCF Sold
7-2024811718181
6-20241042125283
5-202453245724
  • 40276, conf, Phoenix Operating, Young 5-6-1 4H, Burg,
DateOil RunsMCF Sold
7-2024168102100
6-20241687610440
5-2024136888934
4-2024117796015
  • 40275, conf, Phoenix Operating, Young 5-6-1 3H, Burg,
DateOil RunsMCF Sold
7-2024180732095
6-20241780311265
5-2024157379958
4-2024132576703
  • 40274, conf, Phoenix Operating,Young 5-6-1 2H, Burg,
DateOil RunsMCF Sold
7-2024154791858
6-20241681810350
5-2024140068974
4-2024124586361
  • 40206, conf, Phoenix Operating, Young 5-6-1 1H, Burg,
DateOil RunsMCF Sold
7-2024183512344
6-20241957011843
5-2024144199740
4-2024135967314
  • 37822, conf, Enerplus, Fennec 149-93-10B-15H, Mandaree,
DateOil RunsMCF Sold
7-2024132047947
6-20242293115186
5-20243074925063
4-202439303559
  • 17924, conf, Grayson Mill, Moberg 1-29H, Bear Den,
DateOil RunsMCF Sold
7-20241116223827
6-20241676222102
5-2024112804208
  • 40578, conf, Oasis, Iceman Federal 5601 34-04 5B, Tyrone, npd,
  • 40322, conf, Oasis, Iceman Federal 5601 34-04 4B, Tyrone, npd,
  • 38261, conf, Hess, BB-Olson-150-95-0817-5, Blue Buttes,
DateOil RunsMCF Sold
7-20241914537672
6-20242260650630
5-20241995836178
4-20243099650708
  • 40622, conf, Oasis, Iceman Federal 5601 34-05 2B, Tyrone, npd,
  • 40579, conf, Oasis, Iceman Federal 5601 34-05 3B, Tyrone, npd,
  • 37823, conf, Enerplus, Sly 149-93-10B-15H, Mandaree,
DateOil RunsMCF Sold
7-2024162849055
6-2024400
5-20242167616927
4-20242560222238
  • 40330, conf, Hess, EN-Lonetree Farm-LW-156-94-0805H-1, Big Butte,
DateOil RunsMCF Sold
7-20241518423600
6-20241750524229
5-20242048727865
4-20242771133776
  • 38260, conf, Hess, BB-Olson-150-95-0817H-6, Blue Buttes,
DateOil RunsMCF Sold
7-20241940632073
6-20242032638109
5-20241727530851
4-20242442635938
  • 37824, conf, Enerplus, Vulpes 149-93-10A-15H, Mandaree,
DateOil RunsMCF Sold
7-20242271613706
6-202459697407
4-2024930911196
  • 37819, conf, Enerplus, Troop 149-93-10B-15H-LL, Mandaree,
DateOil RunsMCF Sold
7-20242279617218
6-20242707631978
5-20241095717086
4-20241068110289
  • 40238, conf, Hess, BL-Kerbaugh-LW-156-96-3427H-1, Beaver Lodge,
DateOil RunsMCF Sold
7-20241956458240
6-20241967442865
5-20242747847123
4-20244354380172
  • 37825, conf, Enerplus, Kit 149-93-10A-15H, Mandaree,
DateOil RunsMCF Sold
7-20241952212112
6-20241966212816
5-20241442711487
4-202487298740
3-20240250
  • 40239, conf, Hess, BL-Kerbaugh-156-96-3427H-8, Beaver Lodge, oldest oil field in North Dakota,
DateOil RunsMCF Sold
7-20241310736410
6-20242232750147
5-20242433942830
4-20244049873871
3-20248951123
  • 37826, conf, Enerplus, Renard 149-93-10A-15H, Mandaree,
DateOil RunsMCF Sold
7-20241677416445
6-20242395520959
5-20241300312575
4-20242190219155
3-20240422
  • 40281, conf, Hess, EN-Lonetree Farm-156-94-0805H-8, Big Butte,
DateOil RunsMCF Sold
7-20241345620021
6-20241301718128
5-20241204012718
4-20241190814037
3-202415653091

Wells Coming Off Confidential List This Next Week -- September 29, 2024

Locator: 48433B.

Wednesday, October 9, 2024: 21 for the month; 21 for the quarter, 535 for the year
None.

Tuesday, October 8, 2024: 21 for the month; 21 for the quarter, 535 for the year
None.

Monday, October 7, 2024: 21 for the month; 21 for the quarter, 535 for the year
29659, conf, Grayson Mill, Moberg Federal 149-95-29-32-1H,
37821
, conf, Enerplus, Canidae 149-93-10B-15H,

Sunday, October 6, 2024: 19 for the month; 19 for the quarter, 533 for the year
40308, conf, Phoenix Operating, Young 5-6-1-0H-LL
38206, conf, Petroshale, Bear Chase North 2TFH,
29658, conf, Grayson Mill, Moberg Federal 149-95-29-32-13HLW,

Saturday, October 5, 2024: 16 for the month; 16 for the quarter, 530 for the year
40276, conf, Phoenix Operating, Young 5-6-1 4H ,
40275, conf, Phoenix Operating, Young 5-6-1 3H,
40274, conf, Phoenix Operating,Young 5-6-1 2H,
40206, conf, Phoenix Operating, Young 5-6-1 1H,
37822, conf, Enerplus, Fennec 149-93-10B-15H,
17924, conf, Grayson Mill, Moberg 1-29H,

Friday, October 4, 2024: 10 for the month; 10 for the quarter, 524 for the year
40578, conf, Oasis, Iceman Federal 5601 34-04 5B,
40322, conf, Oasis, Iceman Federal 5601 34-04 4B,
38261, conf, Hess, BB-Olson-150-95-0817-5,

Thursday, October 3, 2024: 7 for the month; 7 for the quarter, 521 for the year
40622, conf, Oasis, Iceman Federal 5601 34-05 2B,
40579, conf, Oasis, Iceman Federal 5601 34-05 3B,
37823, conf, Enerplus, Sly 149-93-10B-15H,

Wednesday, October 2, 2024: 4 for the month; 4 for the quarter, 518 for the year
None.

Tuesday, October1, 2024: 4 for the month; 4 for the quarter, 518 for the year
40330, conf, Hess, EN-Lonetree Farm-LW-156-94-0805H-1,
38260, conf, Hess, BB-Olson-150-95-0817H-6,
37824, conf, Enerplus, Vulpes 149-93-10A-15H,
37819, conf, Enerplus, Troop 149-93-10B-15H-LL, 

Monday, September 30, 2024: 62 for the month; 190 for the quarter, 514 for the year
40238, conf, Hess, BL-Kerbaugh-LW-156-96-3427H-1,
37825, conf, Enerplus, Kit 149-93-10A-15H,

Sunday, September 29, 2024: 60 for the month; 188 for the quarter, 512 for the year
40239, conf, Hess, BL-Kerbaugh-156-96-3427H-8,
37826, conf, Enerplus, Renard 149-93-10A-15H,

Saturday, September 28,  2024: 58 for the month; 186 for the quarter, 510 for the year
40281, conf, Hess, EN-Lonetree Farm-156-94-0805H-8,

For The Archives -- Sunday, September 29, 2024

Locator: 48432ARCHIVES.

Tag: Paradise.

CNBC: not mincing words. Now calling it a rescue mission and calling them stranded astronauts. Link here. And it will be Elon Musk and SpaceX launching the rescue mission. Time frame has not changed.

Lucid Air: fun article to read. WSJ: "2025 Lucid Air Sapphire: Eat My Dust, Tesla." LOL.Check out the price. LCID: up 25% last six months. For the year (full year): down 36%.

Israel: continues to take out Hezbollar leaders including #1, and then #2 - #8. At least. Or thereabouts. Netanyahu says he's not done. Stories and links everywhere. Here's one.

Yemen: Israel Air Force conducted an air strike on the port of Houdeida in Yemen. Source.

Apple iPad: would love to see this -- an-Pad-like smart home display. Link here.

Lighthouse parent: new term in child rearing. Seems to be common sense. Link to The Atlantic.

Montana: link here.

Music: the only reason I linked this article -- "Denis," by Blondie.

Bidenomics: link here.

Saturday, September 28, 2024

It Really Can Make A Difference -- Comparing Three ETFs -- September 28, 2024

Locator: 48431PERSINV.

If I have one regret with regard to personal investing: not pivoting to ETFs sooner.  

Schwab ETFs: list here.

Would you rather?

Did your individual stock picks return > 43% this past year?

One needs to know what the ETFs hold.

SCHD -- just dividends.

Compare with SCHD with SCHB:


Compare SCHB with SCHG:

Top ten holdings for each of SCHG and SCHB:

AAPL was one of four top Dow losers this past year (the top four: INTC, NKE, AAPL, BA). AAPL was a top holding in SCHG and yet SCHG had a 43% return this past year.

Of course, this begs another question.

**********************************
Disclaimer
Brief Reminder 

  • NOTE: content and typographical errors may increase due to a number of factors. I correct them when I find them. But if something seems wrong or doesn't make sense, it's likely to be a typographical error as anything else. (Updated: September 28, 2024).
  • I am inappropriately exuberant about the US economy and the US market.
  • I am also inappropriately exuberant about all things Apple. 
  • See disclaimer. This is not an investment site. 
  • Disclaimer: this is not an investment site. Do not make any investment, financial, job, career, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here. All my posts are done quickly: there will be content and typographical errors. If anything on any of my posts is important to you, go to the source. If/when I find typographical / content errors, I will correct them. 
  • Reminder: I am inappropriately exuberant about the US economy and the US market.
  • I am also inappropriately exuberant about all things Apple. 
  • And now, Nvidia, also. I am also inappropriately exuberant about all things Nvidia.    

*********************
The Book Page 

Notes for this book will be posted here.

From The Greco-Persian Wars, Peter Green, c. 1996, pp 16 - 17. This took place in 600 years before the birth of Christ, in Athens, Greece. Does this sound familiar?

Cleisthenes had returned from exile under the Spartan military umbrella: to get back into power by constitutional means, once that umbrella had been removed, was a far trickier business

The conservative group, led by Isagoras, son of Teisander, fought hard -- and with considerable initial success -- to prevent an Alcmaeonid take-over

They began their campaign by scrutinizing the electoral roll, and getting a good many of Cleisthenes' "new immigrants" supporters disenfranchised on technical quibbles. But they were soon saw that it would pay off better, in the long run, to capture the popular vote rather than antagonize it. 

A law was passed abolishing the judicial use of torture against Athenian citizens; other similar measures followed; for two years Isagoras had things very much his own way. The electorate showed no sign whatsoever, at this stage, of welcoming Cleisthenes as a great democratic reformer, for the very good reason that no such idea had yet entered his head. 

In 508 BC, however, Isagoras was elected Chief Archon. 

Cleisthenes had already held this office, and was thereby debarred from standing again. Something had to be done: as a desperate measure Cleisthenes, to borrow Herodotus's ambiguous phrase, "took the people into partnership." 

This probably meant a radical extension of the franchise: to put it bluntly, Cleisthenes bribed the citizen-body to support him by offering them their first real stake in the government, a government that he intended to lead by means of their block (bloc?) vote. The proposal was rushed through the Assembly; and so, by a somewhat singular accouchement (childbirth), Athenian democracy finally struggled to birth. 

The child (early democracy in Greece) proved noisy, healthy and troublesome almost before it  (democracy) could walk; which was lucky, since other its chances of survival would have been slim.

More on this book later, I suppose.