Wednesday, September 18, 2024

Halo Effect In The Killdeer Oil Field Fifteen Years After The Well Was First Drilled -- September 18, 2024

Locator: 48317HALO.

From earlier today, two producing wells (DUCs) reported as completed:

  • 40471, 901, Oasis, Maverick Federal 5602 13-12 4B, Tyrone oil field, Williams County
  • 40285, 4,225, MRO, Muggli 44-12H, Killdeer, Dunn County:
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN7-2024313009630092316002305522054926
BAKKEN6-2024303123831225325322280122478254
BAKKEN5-202429305903057738305203822030317
BAKKEN4-20241224741246863444115397142371106

A well of interest, from the same pad as the Muggli wells above:
  • 17509, 169, MRO, Nanette Strommen 41-13H, Killdeer, t2/09; cum 311K 724; recent production; lovin' that halo effect:
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN7-2024311701017003291561532714655621
BAKKEN6-2024301616316161468711166911504130
BAKKEN5-202431177401777756627127961274611
BAKKEN4-202427345253446710178421095195081513
BAKKEN3-2024218961877142361291118687
BAKKEN2-20240000000
BAKKEN1-20240000000
BAKKEN12-20230000000
BAKKEN11-20230000000
BAKKEN10-20230000000
BAKKEN9-20232234252813637821659
BAKKEN8-20233153863017960834381
BAKKEN7-20233155242815960936864
BAKKEN6-2023305316311695203490
BAKKEN5-202331565634223596289123
BAKKEN4-20233056942819757233262
BAKKEN3-202330574640172569299102
BAKKEN2-202328537643190538223151
BAKKEN1-20233159543417460134375
BAKKEN12-20223160064514961834437
BAKKEN11-20223057163914157932435

 Initial production fifteen years ago:

BAKKEN11-20092686211463823923920
BAKKEN10-20093135013353645152915290
BAKKEN9-20093034913532640170217020
BAKKEN8-20093141403974765194819480
BAKKEN7-20093149995193915210821080
BAKKEN6-200930629662881280288228820
BAKKEN5-200925925089772568434643460
BAKKEN4-20091423647718291910
BAKKEN3-200931271225610122412240
BAKKEN2-2009182360208090108601086

So, in 2009, initial production was less than 10,000 bbls in one month which quickly dropped to less than 5,000 bbls crude oil / month. Then, fifteen years later, production in that well jumps to 35,000 bbls crude oil in one month. Love that halo effect.

Here We Go Again -- Shutting Down The Government -- House GOP Refuses To Let Spending Plan Go Forward --

Locator: 48316ARCHIVES.

Link here. Trump wants the shutdown. Link here. To the best of my knowledge, the only thing shut down during a government shut down are the national parks.

*************************
Meanwhile 

Boeing machinists apparently missed that memo: the company is out of money. Link here. Teamsters Union won't endorse either Trump or Harris. Link here. Speak volumes. Stays neutral first time in nearly three decades.

Half-penny pricing in the stock market. Link here. Not only is the penny sticking around but now Wall Street is keeping the ha-penny. Certainly suggests inflation is not a problem if ha-pennies are coming back into fashion.

US ports getting closer to strike action: East and Gulf coasts. Link here. 77%? Why not 75% or 80%? But 77%?

The International Longshoremen’s Association, which represents the dockworkers at East Coast and Gulf Coast ports, is warning that its members will strike if they don’t secure a labor deal before their current contract ends on September 30, 2024.
A walkout would hit major seaports including New York-New Jersey, Savannah, Georgia; Norfolk, Virginia; and, Houston.
The union, which is seeking a 77% wage increase over six years, and port employers haven’t met at the bargaining table yet and no negotiations have been scheduled.

Nvidia lands a big deal with Salesforce. Link here.

Seven New Permits; One Permit Renewed; Two DUCs Reported As Completed -- September 18, 2024

Locator: 48315B. 

WTI: $70.25.

Active rigs: 38.

Seven new permits, #41144 - #41150, inclusive:
Operators: BR (6); Grayson Mill
Fields: Westberg (McKenzie); Ragged Butte (McKenzie)
Comments:
Grayson Mill has a permit for a Bratcher well, NWNW 15-151-101, to be sited 350 FNL and 450 FWL;
BR has permits for six wells: three Devils Backbone wells; and, three Watchman Peak wells, NWNE 14-152-97; to be sited between 683 FNL and 608 FNL, and between 1810 FEL and 1598 FEL; it appears all the wells are 4-section wells, sections 2 / 11 / 14 / 23 - 152-97.

One permit renewed:

Two producing wells (DUCs) reported as completed:

  • 40471, 901, Oasis, Maverick Federal 5602 13-12 4B, Tyrone oil field, Williams County
  • 40285, 4,225, MRO, Muggli 44-12H, Killdeer, Dunn County:
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN7-2024313009630092316002305522054926
BAKKEN6-2024303123831225325322280122478254
BAKKEN5-202429305903057738305203822030317
BAKKEN4-20241224741246863444115397142371106

A well of interest, from the same pad as the Muggli wells above:
  • 17509, 169, MRO, Nanette Strommen 41-13H, Killdeer, t2/09; cum 311K 724; recent production; lovin' that halo effect:
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN7-2024311701017003291561532714655621
BAKKEN6-2024301616316161468711166911504130
BAKKEN5-202431177401777756627127961274611
BAKKEN4-202427345253446710178421095195081513
BAKKEN3-2024218961877142361291118687
BAKKEN2-20240000000
BAKKEN1-20240000000
BAKKEN12-20230000000
BAKKEN11-20230000000
BAKKEN10-20230000000
BAKKEN9-20232234252813637821659
BAKKEN8-20233153863017960834381
BAKKEN7-20233155242815960936864
BAKKEN6-2023305316311695203490
BAKKEN5-202331565634223596289123
BAKKEN4-20233056942819757233262
BAKKEN3-202330574640172569299102
BAKKEN2-202328537643190538223151
BAKKEN1-20233159543417460134375
BAKKEN12-20223160064514961834437
BAKKEN11-20223057163914157932435

Amazon And Shopify Enhance The Expansion Of Their Partnership -- Reflections On The Magnificent Seven -- September 18, 2024

Locator: 48313MAG7. 

Not on my bingo card today! AAPL. On relatively "bad news" for AAPL it's having quite a day:

*******************************
Magnificent 7

New tag: Magnificent 7.

Enhancing the partnership: Amazon and Shopify.

This is so unlike any other sector in which to invest:

  • relative monopolies
    • unique strengths
  • the average investor can actually "keep track" of a handful of companies
  • behemoths 
  • market values are incredible
  • cash hordes for some are also incredible
  • margins, amazing
  • partnerships
  • a different kind of competition, because they each depend on the other in some way, shape or form
  • with some exceptions, their only raw material -- silica and brain power

****************************
Ticker BRK

Flat.

*********************
Flashback

Copy of Arianna's financial newsletter, April, 2005. 

EIA Weekly Petroleum Report -- September 18, 2024

Locator: 48312B.

EIA weekly petroleum report, link here:

  • in storage: 7.1% less than one year ago; almost double the "usual" 4%;
  • refiners: 92.1%
  • jet fuel supplied: down 1.4% compared to last year

GDPNow, link here:

  • drops back to 2.9% from 3.0% yesterday (September 17, 2024)
  • next report: September 27, 2024

************************
The Media Page

Wow.

Link here.

Also, as expected JD Vance is very, very unhappy that the Fed lowered rates by 50 basis points. I don't know about you, but .... well, let's just say I'm happy with the rate cut.

When every vote counts, nothing like losing an entire segment of the population: those deplorable Haitian-Americans, link here:

Cramer's First Hour -- Housing Market Stats Surprisingly Strong -- US Equity Markets Could Open At/Near All-Time Highs -- September 18, 2024

Locator: 48311CRAMER.

Cramer's first hour: a mix of facts, factoids, opinions from various sources -- often not cited -- while listening to Cramer's first hour on CNBC

Fed cut: at 2:00 p.m. this afternoon.

First subject this morning; tech out in California. Absolutely booming. Not nearly enough engineers. 

First half-hour: all about AI. 

BINGO! "Hyperscalers" mentioned by Cramer at 8:15 a.m.

Personal investing: Sophia will be adding to her natural gas position today.

SRE:

**********************************
Disclaimer
Briefly Reminder 

  • I am inappropriately exuberant about the US economy and the US market.
  • I am also inappropriately exuberant about all things Apple. 
  • See disclaimer. This is not an investment site. 
  • Disclaimer: this is not an investment site. Do not make any investment, financial, job, career, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here. All my posts are done quickly: there will be content and typographical errors. If anything on any of my posts is important to you, go to the source. If/when I find typographical / content errors, I will correct them. 
  • Reminder: I am inappropriately exuberant about the US economy and the US market.
  • I am also inappropriately exuberant about all things Apple. 
  • And now, Nvidia, also. I am also inappropriately exuberant about all things Nvidia.

 ***************************
The Art Page

New painting acquired by Kimball, the fine arts museum in Ft Worth.

George Stubbs, wiki.

Most Fascinating Energy Story Right Now -- Natural Gas Pipelines In Texas -- September 18, 2024

Locator: 48312DELA. 

Natural gas and natural gas pipelines are tracked here.

Natural gas: it all started with these two stories -- RBN Energy and Bloomberg/Javier Blas. The rabbit hole:

DeLa: Delaware-to-Louisiana.

  • 690-mile pipeline
  • 300-foot-wide corridor
  • 3,000 property owners to be affected: 3,473 tracts of land
  • enough to meet the needs of a city the size of Chicago
  • to begin operating in 2028
  • "groundbreaking"

DeLa: across central Texas.

DeLa: Delaware-to-Louisiana 

Published: 16 September 2024.
Wood, a global leader in consulting and engineering, has been awarded the front-end engineering design (FEED) for a long-haul, large diameter liquids-rich natural gas pipeline project in the United States.
The DeLa Express pipeline project being developed by DeLa Express LLC, a subsidiary of Moss Lake Partners LP, is proposed to deliver liquids-rich natural gas from the Permian Basin of West Texas to the U.S. Gulf Coast and international export markets.
The pipeline project will act as a highway to supply the growing demand for natural gas and liquids, safely shipping critical energy to the largest demand markets, including the largest liquified natural gas (LNG) demand center in North America - Cameron Parish, Louisiana near the Sabine River Corridor.
The project is being designed for more than 2.0 billion cubic feet per day of natural gas and liquids transportation capacity, enough to supply the daily equivalent demand of the city of Chicago, Illinois.

Major natural gas pipelines: Texas to Louisiana.


Hump Day -- Wednesday, September 18, 2024

Locator: 48310B. 

Amazon: employees -- to remain an employee -- must be back at work in the office five days / week. Wow, what a concept.

Investing: 20 dividend-paying stocks that benefit from a rate cut. Barron's.

Google, EU 1 - 0. Google  beats EU's $1.7 billion antitrust fine. Did hell just freeze over? Pigs flying?

Easy money: the question is now being raised -- should "easy money" be the norm? The economy took off (excelled) when the US had twelve years of easy money; April, 2008 -- September, 2022. Actually 14 years. A generation of Americans have only known "easy money." It becomes an even more fascinating question when we look at the real reason for inflation. Was Paul Krugman right all along? Even Steve Liesman is willing to play along, entertaining that thought.


Or was it simply about easily accessible, easily affordable, dispatchable energy?

Let's not overthink this.

The EU's crude oil production:


*******************************
Back to the Bakken

WTI: $70.21.

Thursday, September 19, 2024: 37 for the month; 165 for the quarter, 489 for the year
None.

Wednesday, September 18, 2024
: 37 for the month; 165 for the quarter, 489 for the year
40241, conf, Hess, BL-Kerbaugh-156-96-3427H-6, Beaver Lodge, npd,
38649, conf, CLR, Ravin 13-1HSL, Dimmick Lake, npd,

RBN Energy: how much will LCI hydrogen help and will its production be cost-effective?

Two major pieces of early-2020s legislation — the Bipartisan Infrastructure Law (2021) and the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA; 2022) — promise to provide billions of dollars in tax credits and other incentives for expanding the production of low-carbon-intensity (LCI) hydrogen. But the hype around clean hydrogen as a fuel of the future has lost some momentum of late, mostly due to spiraling costs. So we’re left with two questions: Can expanded production and use of LCI hydrogen significantly reduce carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions and, just as important, is LCI hydrogen production cost-effective?

Tuesday, September 17, 2024

Apple's Android Messaging Overhaul; Apple Card -- September 17, 2024

Locator: 48309AAPL.

Link here

Apple Card: This is a biggie. We'll know by the end of the year. Link here.

US Consumer Alive And Well -- Carl Q -- September 17, 2024

Locator: 48308ECON.

Link here. And a reminder: 3Q24 estimate GDP came in at a surprisingly strong 3.0%. Wow.



Personal Mileage -- 2011 Honda -- August 3, 2024

Locator: 48307HONDA.

Tag: mileage personal 

Actually it's a 2012 model but I bought it in December, 2011, in Williston, ND. I needed a car to get back to Boston. I had planned to take the train but local / regional floods had "washed out" Amtrak's rails. 

Thirty-six (36) days on a 3/4th tank of gas.

Nine cents / mile.

Look at the price of gasoline here in north Texas: $2.54!

AI -- Microsoft, BlackRock -- September 17, 2024

Locator: 48610AI.

With regard to AI, there are two camps:

  • it's all hype / hyped
  • it's the real deal

I'm in the second camp.

Link here.

Tag: Microsoft, MSFT, BlackRock, AI

COP To Acquire MRO --- July 1, 2024

Locator: 48609B.

This was posted elsewhere. Thought it important enough to post at this blog. 

Mineral owners in the Bakken may be receiving royalties from MRO.

MRO could remain a wholly-owned subsidiary of COP and and royalties still coming from MRO.

Or MRO could be absorbed by BR (a wholly-owned subsidiary of COP) or something entirely else.

We won't know for awhile.



Five New Permits; Six DUCs Reported As Completed -- September 17, 2024

Locator: 48608B.

Record high: S&P 500 hit a new intraday high today -- if not, very close before closing flat.

FANG: up $5 today.  

BRK-B: up as much as $7 today.

META: near another high; chartists suggests it could have a huge breakout.

Cramer: out in San Francisco, AI conference.

  • Fed getting ready to cut the Fed rate: "don't overthink it."
  • AI
    • AI is not a strategy
    • for most, AI is a necessary expense
    • "in fact," says Cramer, "AI makes everything go faster"
    • "the AI agent knows you; the AI agent will give you something better than we already have"

********************************
Back to the Bakken

WTI: $71.19.

Active rigs: 39.

Five new permits, #41138 - #41142, inclusive:

  • Operators: CLR, Phoenix Operating
  • Fields: Crazy Man Creek (Williams); Bailey (Dunn)
  • Comments:
    • Phoenix Operating has a permit for a Marshall well, NWNW 13-144-94,
      • to be sited 381 FNL and 424 FWL; spacing unit section 2 / 11 - 144-94;
    • CLR has permits for three Stangeland wells and one Hayes well, SESE 6-153-99; 
      • to be sited 29 FSL and at 1058 FEL, 1026 FEL, 994 FEL, and 962 FEL.

Six producing wells (DUCs) reported as completed:

  • 40416, 887, Kraken, Fasching 15-22-27 4H, Hebron, npd,
  • 40465, 803, Kraken, Fasching LE 15-22-27 12H, Hebron, npd,
  • 40466, 719, Kraken, Milloy 10-3-34 3H, Hebron, npd,
  • 40467, 864, Kraken, Milloy 10-3-34 2H, Hebron, npd,
  • 40468, 666, Kraken, Milloy LE 10-3-34 1H, Hebron, npd,
  • 40515, 274, CLR, Hartman 12-28H, Chimney Butte, npd, 

Based on new name (PNC) it appears Slawson has canceled four Shad Rap Federal permits.

GDPNow 3Q24 Estimate Raised From 2.5% to 3.0% -- September 17, 2024

Locator: 48607B.

GDPNow: Link here. GDPNow released today: 3.0%; up from 2.5% September 9, 2024. Next estimate tomorrow, September 18, 2024.

Cramer's First Hour -- Retail Sales: Solid Report, Better Than Expected; Revisions Revised Up -- September 17, 2024

Locator: 48606CRAMER.

Cramer's first hour: a mix of facts, factoids, opinions from various sources -- often not cited -- while listening to Cramer's first hour on CNBC.  

Hyperscalers: bingo. Mentioned at 8:30 a.m. by Jim Cramer.

August retail sales: up one-tenth of a percent; forecast, to be negative, minus 0.2%. First number; revisions going forward.

  • ex autos: +0.1% vs +0.2% estimate
  • past numbers: upward revisions

GDPNow: new estimate to be released later today. Above numbers suggest GDP estimate could rise. Link here. GDPNow released today: 3.0%; up from 2.5% September 9, 2024.

MSFT: up $8 / share. Raises dividend 10%; announces $60-billion share buyback.

All tech: looking better.

AAPL: not tech, but "consumer electronics."

Personal investing: SRE by rule.

Palantir:


Fed cut: coming. And no one understands why we need a cut. LOL. 

Can anyone see the pattern? It appears the soft landing / hard landing is "defined" less than six months after the first cut is made. So, we finally have a timeline. If we get a fed rate cut today and if the cuts continue as expected, if we don't have a recession in March, 2025 -- 1st / 2nd quarter 2025 -- then we have a soft landing.


Dow at an all-time high and investors still want a 50-bp cut in the Fed rate.

Tech: absolutely remarkable. That $60-billion shareback is bigger than most companies. 

Savings: still 30% greater than what it was pre-Covid (end of 2019).

**********************************
Disclaimer
Briefly Reminder 

  • I am inappropriately exuberant about the US economy and the US market.
  • I am also inappropriately exuberant about all things Apple. 
  • See disclaimer. This is not an investment site. 
  • Disclaimer: this is not an investment site. Do not make any investment, financial, job, career, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here. All my posts are done quickly: there will be content and typographical errors. If anything on any of my posts is important to you, go to the source. If/when I find typographical / content errors, I will correct them. 
  • Reminder: I am inappropriately exuberant about the US economy and the US market.
  • I am also inappropriately exuberant about all things Apple. 
  • And now, Nvidia, also. I am also inappropriately exuberant about all things Nvidia.

Evertything, Everywhere, Happening All At Once -- September 17, 2024

Locator: 48605ARCHIVES.

Everything, everywhere happening all at once: so many interesting things going on right now. Long post earlier this morning. Most interesting:

  • natural gas pipeline story in Texas;
  • folks mis-reading short delivery times for Apple;
  • BRK -- something going on?

BRK:


The cash horde: no analysis --


Jain:

Hess Continues To Report Some Great Wells -- September 17, 2024

Locator: 48604B.

Everything, everywhere happening all at once: so many interesting things going on right now. Long post earlier this morning. Most interesting:

  • natural gas pipeline story in Texas;
  • folks mis-reading short delivery times for Apple;
  • BRK -- something going on?

********************************
Back to the Bakken

WTI: $69.86.

Wednesday, September 18, 2024: 37 for the month; 165 for the quarter, 489 for the year
40241, conf, Hess, BL-Kerbaugh-156-96-3427H-6, Beaver Lodge:

DateOil RunsMCF Sold
7-20241777566789
6-20242317656432
5-20242623144141
4-20244326283196
3-20242174740018

38649, conf, CLR, Ravin 13-1HSL, Dimmick Lake.

Tuesday, September 17, 2024: 35 for the month; 163 for the quarter, 487 for the year
38262
, conf, Hess, BB-Olson-150-95-0817H-4, Blue Buttes:

DateOil RunsMCF Sold
7-20242782360727
6-20243526866827
5-20242192538988
4-20242896648690
3-20241724622471

RBN Energy: importance of Colorado City (TX) hub grows as crude oil flows to Houston increase. Archived.

Colorado City, TX, has deep roots in the history of the American West, beginning as a ranger camp in 1877. As cattlemen flocked to the area, it quickly became a vital center for the cattle industry, earning the moniker “The Mother City of West Texas.” The arrival of the Texas & Pacific Railway in 1881 marked a turning point for the town. It was formally organized the following year, its economy bolstered by cattle, cotton and a soon-burgeoning oil industry. A 1920s oil boom further elevated Colorado City’s economic status, marking the beginning of its now long-standing importance in the oil industry.
In today’s RBN blog, we’ll explore how Colorado City continues to serve as a critical junction, facilitating the movement of crude from the prolific Permian Basin to major destinations such as Cushing, OK, and the U.S. Gulf Coast.

Tuesday -- September 17, 2024

Locator: 48603ARCHIVES.

Big Oil win: 9th Circuit Court. Link here. The big story? It was a(n) unanimous decision:

Several oil companies including Exxon Mobil, opens new tab and Chevron, opens new tab defeated an appeal on Monday by consumers who accused them of colluding with former U.S. President Donald Trump, Russia and Saudi Arabia to cut oil production, boosting prices at the pump.
In a 3-0 decision, the 9th U.S. Circuit Court of Appeals in San Francisco said two dozen consumers could not pursue class action claims because they concerned political questions and the oil-producing policies of foreign countries.

Natural gas: it all started with these two stories -- RBN Energy and Bloomberg/Javier Blas. The rabbit hole:

Gasoline, road to Califorrnia, Barron's, September 17, 2024.

BRK:

MSFT: link here --

  • raises dividend by 10%;
  • announces $60-billion share buyback

Intel's turnaround plan: link here.

  • to spin off its chipmaking business -- 
    • just the other day someone over on social mediat said that rumor was absolutely bonkers; wouldn't happen;
  • huge story;

Previously reported:

Dow hits new high; tech struggling but it's shorterm and its "select." From Yahoo!Finance:

Boeing: bankruptcy was mentioned 24 hours ago on CNBC when discussing Boeing. Meanwhile, days after thousands of Boeing employees went on strike, the company said it would freeze hiring and cut costs, halting production of its most popular commercial jet.

Amazon Prime Day: October 8 - 9. The Verge. Two full days.

Peter Zeihan today: substitute SPR for offshore production --


Tupperware: to file for bankruptcy. Tectonic shifts in American dining habits over the past 50 years.

UT-Austin: to drop automatic admissions fro top Texas students to 5% in 2026.

Apple iPhone 16 sales: is something being missed? Date/time bragging rights. We'll see. Link here. Regardless, Tim Cook, master of logistics, can rightly crow that shipping times have greatly improved Great news for consumers. After dropping 2.8% yesterday, AAPL shares are up slightly in pre-market trading. 

Affirm: Affirm's BNPL deal with Apple is now live; investors have been waiting for this. Link here.

Affirm Holdings pay-over-time options are now available to Apple Pay users on the iPhone and iPad, the ‘buy now, pay later’ company announced Monday.

“We are thrilled to bring the power of Affirm to Apple Pay users in the U.S. and the retailers where they shop,” said Vishal Kapoor, Affirm’s senior vice president of product.

“This integration combines the ease, convenience and security of Apple Pay alongside the features users love in Affirm—flexibility, transparency and no late or hidden fees.”

Users with iOS 18 or iPadOS 18 or later can select “Other Cards & Pay Later Options” when checking out with Apple Pay, and after choosing Affirm, they will undergo an eligibility check. Approved users will see customized payment plans, according to the release.

Politics: Chief Justice Roberts, Donald Trump, three decisions favoring Trump -- NYT exclusive -- Chief Justice Roberts got it right. He schooled the court. Link here.

**********************************
Disclaimer
Briefly Reminder 

  • I am inappropriately exuberant about the US economy and the US market.
  • I am also inappropriately exuberant about all things Apple. 
  • See disclaimer. This is not an investment site. 
  • Disclaimer: this is not an investment site. Do not make any investment, financial, job, career, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here. All my posts are done quickly: there will be content and typographical errors. If anything on any of my posts is important to you, go to the source. If/when I find typographical / content errors, I will correct them. 
  • Reminder: I am inappropriately exuberant about the US economy and the US market.
  • I am also inappropriately exuberant about all things Apple. 
  • And now, Nvidia, also. I am also inappropriately exuberant about all things Nvidia.