Monday, June 7, 2021
John Hess On Shale Oil -- June 7, 2021
John Hess, CEO, talks about shale, The Williston Herald.
“(Shale) is not going to be the swing producer, it’s not going to be the marginal supplier,” he said during the recent Citi 2021 Global Energy and Utilities Virtual Conference.
“Shale we think has entered a new phase. Where it was a growth business, now it’s a harvest business. While there’s still more oil to exploit, it’s going to be done in a much more financially disciplined manner.”
“We don’t see peak oil until let’s say 2030,” Hess said. “I know some people think maybe it’s 2025, but the point is, you know, we still see demand for oil being pretty robust going out, even with the ESG and government pressures that are out there on climate change. Oil and gas is still a strategic industry, not only for the United States but for the world to get the economy back on its feet.”
“Ultimately, the most rigs we would ever be at in the Bakken would be four,” he added. “So let’s assume that prices would hold strongly again through 2022, we’d probably look at that fourth rig at the back end of 2022.”
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The Rez
You can subscribe to this channel. They are really quite good.
My favorite:
"I just hit a dog. I was wondering if it was yours?"
"What does it (the dog) look like?"
[Dead.]
"A River Runs Through It" -- Fortyfive Years Later -- June 7, 2021
"A River Runs Through It."
The Washington Post. Link here.
I thought I had posted this. Maybe not.
From the linked article:
His son, John N. Maclean, is also an author, and his latest book, “Home Waters,” is a lyrical companion to his father’s classic, chronicling their family’s history and bond with Montana’s Blackfoot River. His storytelling — from the fishing with his dad to the life and death of his Uncle Paul — is reliable, elegant and charming.
After a 30-year career as a journalist, mostly as a correspondent for the Chicago Tribune in D.C., the younger Maclean took to writing well-received nonfiction about wildfires in the American West. He hadn’t considered a family memoir.
hen, he caught a big trout — a really big trout — while fishing a stretch of the Blackfoot that his father memorialized in “A River Runs Through It,” published in 1976. He wrote about that fish, “the fish of a lifetime,” he called it, for a local club of anglers, and then, with some prodding, expanded the tale for a regional magazine. That was the end of it, he thought, until a couple years later when an editor unearthed the magazine article while on vacation in Montana. Did Maclean want to write a book?
“I thought this was going to be a big fish story, but then it turned into something very different,” says Maclean, now 78. “I don’t call it a memoir. I call it a chronicle. A memoir is about you, and this isn’t all about me.”
The Mysterious Disappearing Natural Gas In The Bakken -- June 7, 2021
Note: this was done quickly during a lot of distractions. There may be typographical and content errors. But the general theme holds true.
In all the examples below, there are nine columns.
The last three columns have to do with natural gas over the given month.
The sum of the last two columns "should" equal column #7, MCF produced. If not, the question is where did that natural gas go that is produced but neither sold nor vented?
A reader who has been following this for awhile and has sent me observations before regarding this issue, sent me this note today regarding four wells that came off the confidential list today and over the weekend:
That WPX well #37830 produced, but did not sell or flare, 100,000 cubic feet of gas per day its first month online.
The MRO well #37250 produced, but did not sell or flare, 66,000 cubic feet of gas per day its first several months online.
In contrast, Oasis has no such unidentified 'spread' in their gas production/sold/flared categories. That is, those 3 numbers add up precisely.Observations ...
Some effective gas lift is being used and - importantly - it is being used right from the start of production. (By MRO and WPX, at least, in these instances).
The "dreaded decline" in Bakken wells is very apt to take on a much shallower profile as gas lift can be an exceptionally effective means of recovering oil.While the initial costs can be higher in installing the needed hardware, longer term operating costs can be much cheaper as sand problems, gassy flow through and other issues that damage ESPs are avoided when using gas lift.
The question: what innovations are companies like WPX and MRO using to produce more efficient lift with natural gas?
And, of course, the next question, will we start to see this in other companies, like Oasis.
I wonder what CLR numbers show. Randomly, I will simply look at one recently reported CLR well.
36056, A, CLR, Gordon Federal 15-8H, Haystack Butte:
| Pool | Date | Days | BBLS Oil | Runs | BBLS Water | MCF Prod | MCF Sold | Vent/Flare |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BAKKEN | 4-2021 | 30 | 22453 | 22583 | 13526 | 35761 | 33582 | 2003 |
| BAKKEN | 3-2021 | 30 | 17727 | 17660 | 13047 | 32814 | 31305 | 1248 |
| BAKKEN | 2-2021 | 28 | 22934 | 22963 | 17309 | 41064 | 37484 | 3420 |
| BAKKEN | 1-2021 | 31 | 35539 | 35537 | 25527 | 58806 | 54263 | 4368 |
| BAKKEN | 12-2020 | 31 | 34035 | 33907 | 28894 | 55171 | 48279 | 6696 |
| BAKKEN | 11-2020 | 18 | 29759 | 29576 | 23676 | 49349 | 42716 | 6503 |
| BAKKEN | 10-2020 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| BAKKEN | 9-2020 | 2 | 273 | 273 | 684 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
If I did the arithmetic correctly, CLR's numbers are similar to those of Oasis.
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The wells referenced by the reader from above:
- 37830, drl/NC, WPX, Dakota 1-36HUL, Heart Butte, first production 4/21; t--; cum 31K 4/21;
| Pool | Date | Days | BBLS Oil | Runs | BBLS Water | MCF Prod | MCF Sold | Vent/Flare |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BAKKEN | 4-2021 | 30 | 31374 | 31161 | 34371 | 28457 | 23361 | 1597 |
| BAKKEN | 3-2021 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
- 37250, 3,418, MRO, Hoss 41-3TFH, Killdeer, t12/20; cum 144K 4/21;
| Pool | Date | Days | BBLS Oil | Runs | BBLS Water | MCF Prod | MCF Sold | Vent/Flare |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BAKKEN | 4-2021 | 30 | 26138 | 26162 | 27625 | 24432 | 22576 | 0 |
| BAKKEN | 3-2021 | 31 | 27518 | 27485 | 39267 | 23413 | 21362 | 90 |
| BAKKEN | 2-2021 | 28 | 23369 | 23553 | 39883 | 24338 | 18115 | 4551 |
| BAKKEN | 1-2021 | 31 | 31348 | 31129 | 50677 | 30060 | 22087 | 5761 |
| BAKKEN | 12-2020 | 26 | 36013 | 35709 | 64158 | 24592 | 19883 | 2262 |
| BAKKEN | 11-2020 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 447 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
- 36552, 507, Oasis, Thelen 5297 12-6 7B, Banks, t12/20; cum 111K 4/21; Oasis Thelen wells tracked here;
| Pool | Date | Days | BBLS Oil | Runs | BBLS Water | MCF Prod | MCF Sold | Vent/Flare |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BAKKEN | 4-2021 | 30 | 25248 | 25253 | 25954 | 82328 | 81086 | 1071 |
| BAKKEN | 3-2021 | 31 | 27818 | 27756 | 29419 | 72664 | 69257 | 3230 |
| BAKKEN | 2-2021 | 28 | 26041 | 26040 | 30895 | 79503 | 78451 | 892 |
| BAKKEN | 1-2021 | 31 | 26198 | 26191 | 43888 | 79784 | 78649 | 957 |
| BAKKEN | 12-2020 | 19 | 5656 | 5646 | 14256 | 14149 | 13772 | 302 |
- 36551, 486, Oasis, Thelen 5297 12-6 6T, Banks, t12/20; cum 78K 4/21; Oasis Thelen wells tracked here;
| ool | Date | Days | BBLS Oil | Runs | BBLS Water | MCF Prod | MCF Sold | Vent/Flare |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BAKKEN | 4-2021 | 30 | 14992 | 14998 | 25285 | 39418 | 38751 | 495 |
| BAKKEN | 3-2021 | 31 | 17589 | 17554 | 30826 | 42658 | 40754 | 1727 |
| BAKKEN | 2-2021 | 28 | 21447 | 21443 | 39932 | 67127 | 66211 | 755 |
| BAKKEN | 1-2021 | 31 | 17090 | 17090 | 40991 | 52878 | 52053 | 647 |
| BAKKEN | 12-2020 | 22 | 6519 | 6507 | 21001 | 14478 | 14087 | 288 |
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Where's USAA?
Hunt Oil Company With Three New Permits -- June 7, 2021
Active rigs:
| $69.27 | 6/7/2021 | 06/07/2020 | 06/07/2019 | 06/07/2018 | 06/07/2017 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Active Rigs | 21 | 12 | 64 | 60 | 52 |
Three new permits, inclusive, #38348 - #38350:
- Operator: Hunt Oil Company
- Fields: Green Lake (Williams); Smoky Butte (Williams)
- Comments:
- Hunt Oil Company has three new permits;
- one permit will be for a well in Smoky Butte, Lot 1 section 6-159-100,
- it will be 258 FNL and 325 FEL;
- Hunt also has two new permits for two wells in Green Lake, also in Lot 1 section 6-159-100;
- these two wells will be sited 338 FNL and 355 FEL; and, 338 FNL and 385 FEL.
Four permits renewed:
- Petroharvester (2): two LIG2 permits in Burke County;
- Sinclair Oil and Gas: one Nelson permit in Mountrail County;
- MRO: one Sophia permit in Dunn County;
Reminder: Apple - WWDC -- Noon Today -- June 7, 2021
Without question, one of the best WWDC presentations ever, and I've watched a lot of them.
Facebook:
Messages:
Notifications:
Wallet:
Weather:
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Apple Employees Don't Want To Return To Work
This story is getting a lot of attention -- in a "negative" way.
This is a non-story and Tim Cook knows it.
One needs to remember that:
- these Apple employees are brilliant;
- chaos is self-organizing;
- competition for moving up the corporate ladder will take care of this (I saw it all the time in the military)
Notes From All Over -- Early Morning Edition -- June 7, 2021
Cold-hearted, cruel, and unconscionable. I don't get it, but unanimous. Unanimous. I never saw this coming, but then, I suppose, the justices are able to read the law. Congress can obviously fix this. I assume most (the people here for humanitarian reasons, not congress-people) will move to Canada:
Inflation. Price of McDonald's "Big Mac" over the decades -- Big Mac alone (Big Mac Meal):
- today, updated June, 2021: $3.99 ($5.99 and for a dime more, large French fries)
- 2020s: $4.95 ($7.89)
- 2010s: $4.19
- 2000s: $2.39
- 1990s: $2.45 ($4.59)
- 1980s: $1.60 ($2.59)
- 1970s: 65 cents
- 1960s: 45 cents
- recent prices, February 17, 2021:
- Big Mac: $4.99
- Big Mac -- meal: $5.99
- French Fries: $1.39, $1.79, $1.89 (obviously, if you "move up," skip the medium and go for the "large" for only a dime more)
- breakfast:
- almost any entree, less than $1.50
- senior coffee: 69 cents, free refills
- bottom line:
- breakfast: $2.00
- lunch, large French Fries and a drink only: $2.89
- dinner: Big Mac Meal: $5.99
- total for the day: $11
- That was my exact diet while hitchhiking through Germany during the summer of 1973
- I do not recall exactly what I paid for those meals in Germany but I believe I budgeted $4.00 / day for food. I seem to recall I often got by on four Deutsche Marks/day or about a dollar a day for food. I survived just fine and I hiked upwards of twenty miles/day -- about seven to ten hours of hiking through hilly and forested terrain -- Luxembourg to Koblenz, Germany, over a two-week period;
- lodging: about $5/night
- Bible: Europe on $5-a-Day -- 1957, Arthur Frommer travel guide that revolutionized the way Americans traveled; re-issued in 2007.
- breakfast came with the overnight lodging (everywhere)
- there is no intended hyperbole in the data posted above;
- price of Big Mac in Germany in 2020: $5.01
Gasoline demand, link here:
I know we came close, but I don't recall if we ever hit 10 million bbls of gasoline per day for "gasoline demand." But that's the bar: 10 million bbls/per day. Our recent high: 9.5 million bbls. Tea leaves: we will easily hit 10 million bbls/day by Labor Day, 2021. Most recent:
First "gasoline demand" graphic ever on the blog, January 22, 2015:
Bull market: third leg?
- first leg, the Obama bull market, 2009 - 2017:
- second leg, Trump bull market, 2018 - 2020 (with short but deep contraction due to black swan; will turn out to be insignificant):
- third leg, the Biden bull market, 2021 -
Black swan: short term the pandemic was very, very costly; long term, incredibly important. I think it was a gift for investors, accumulating shares at deep discount for an entire year, through automatic reinvestment of dividends, reinvesting dividends in new names, and new cash in new and existing positions. Some of the mutual funds did incredibly well throughout the year.
Apple/WWDC: at noon, CT, today.
CNBC: returns to NYSE. No masks, no social distancing. Apparently this is starting to happen all over NYC. Banks opening?
Dow: first new high since May, 2021; close to another all-time record.
Earnings estimates for Q2 and Q3 exploding:
- for 2Q21:
- in April, earnings estimates for 2Q21: will increase 545 y/y
- today, earnings estimates for 2Q21: will increase 62%
- going forward: analysts expects earning will be 70% high y/y for 2Q21;
- for 3Q21:
- in April, earnings estimates for 3Q21: will increase 19%
- today, earnings estimates for 3Q21: will increase 24%
Disclaimer: this is not an investment site. Do not make any investment, financial, job, career, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here.
Oilsands: $60 billion in cash flow. Link here.
A group of five large Canadian oilsands companies are expected to generate about $60 billion in net cash flow over the next two years and spend only half of it on dividends and capital expenditures, leaving the rest for debt repayment and sharing with shareholders.
In a report, analyst William Lacey of ATB Capital Markets says the companies are expected to duplicate their sterling financial performance of the first quarter of 2021 for the rest of this year and in 2022, provided that benchmark West Texas Intermediate oil prices remain near US$60 per barrel.
Journaling:
- how journaling can help you live your best life;
- why keeping a journal matters: readers weigh in;
- advice for college-bound granddaughter, pending;
Air travel: look how much more runway there is -- this segment of the bull market is just beginning.
Atmospheric CO2: has anyone addressed this issue? There are several story lines here -- the rate of growth of atmospheric CO2 appears to have actually increased over the past year, from the end of March, 2020, to the end of March, 2021. The global economy was probably shut down as much as it will ever be shut down and the rate of growth of atmospheric CO2 actually increased? Greta must be in a panic, or laughing all the way to the bank as she schedules additional speaking engagements. See this link -- a most concerning graphic for faux environmentalists.
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From National Doughnut Day
Initial Production Data For Wells Coming Off Confidential List -- June 7, 2021
The wells:
- 37830, drl/NC, WPX, Dakota 1-36HUL, Heart Butte, first production 4/21; t--; cum 31K 4/21;
| Pool | Date | Days | BBLS Oil | Runs | BBLS Water | MCF Prod | MCF Sold | Vent/Flare |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BAKKEN | 4-2021 | 30 | 31374 | 31161 | 34371 | 28457 | 23361 | 1597 |
| BAKKEN | 3-2021 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
- 37677, drl/NC, MRO, Ortman USA 34-31TFH, Reunion Bay, no production data,
- 37378, drl/NC, CLR, Rodney 7-29H, Cedar Coulee, no production data,
- 36552, 507, Oasis, Thelen 5297 12-6 7B, Banks, t12/20; cum 111K 4/21; Oasis Thelen wells tracked here;
| Pool | Date | Days | BBLS Oil | Runs | BBLS Water | MCF Prod | MCF Sold | Vent/Flare |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BAKKEN | 4-2021 | 30 | 25248 | 25253 | 25954 | 82328 | 81086 | 1071 |
| BAKKEN | 3-2021 | 31 | 27818 | 27756 | 29419 | 72664 | 69257 | 3230 |
| BAKKEN | 2-2021 | 28 | 26041 | 26040 | 30895 | 79503 | 78451 | 892 |
| BAKKEN | 1-2021 | 31 | 26198 | 26191 | 43888 | 79784 | 78649 | 957 |
| BAKKEN | 12-2020 | 19 | 5656 | 5646 | 14256 | 14149 | 13772 | 302 |
- 37250, 3,418, MRO, Hoss 41-3TFH, Killdeer, t12/20; cum 144K 4/21;
| Pool | Date | Days | BBLS Oil | Runs | BBLS Water | MCF Prod | MCF Sold | Vent/Flare |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BAKKEN | 4-2021 | 30 | 26138 | 26162 | 27625 | 24432 | 22576 | 0 |
| BAKKEN | 3-2021 | 31 | 27518 | 27485 | 39267 | 23413 | 21362 | 90 |
| BAKKEN | 2-2021 | 28 | 23369 | 23553 | 39883 | 24338 | 18115 | 4551 |
| BAKKEN | 1-2021 | 31 | 31348 | 31129 | 50677 | 30060 | 22087 | 5761 |
| BAKKEN | 12-2020 | 26 | 36013 | 35709 | 64158 | 24592 | 19883 | 2262 |
| BAKKEN | 11-2020 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 447 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
- 37377 drl/NC, CLR, Rodney 6-29H1, Cedar Coulee, no production data,
- 36551, 486, Oasis, Thelen 5297 12-6 6T, Banks, t12/20; cum 78K 4/21; Oasis Thelen wells tracked here;
| ool | Date | Days | BBLS Oil | Runs | BBLS Water | MCF Prod | MCF Sold | Vent/Flare |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BAKKEN | 4-2021 | 30 | 14992 | 14998 | 25285 | 39418 | 38751 | 495 |
| BAKKEN | 3-2021 | 31 | 17589 | 17554 | 30826 | 42658 | 40754 | 1727 |
| BAKKEN | 2-2021 | 28 | 21447 | 21443 | 39932 | 67127 | 66211 | 755 |
| BAKKEN | 1-2021 | 31 | 17090 | 17090 | 40991 | 52878 | 52053 | 647 |
| BAKKEN | 12-2020 | 22 | 6519 | 6507 | 21001 | 14478 | 14087 | 288 |
Seven Wells Coming Off Confidential List -- June 7, 2021
Focus on Fracking: posted --
- oil prices at new 31-month high;
- refinery utilization rate and throughput at post-pandemic highs
$70: WTI for a short time on Sunday, June 6, 2021.
Tesla: officially cancels its flagship sedan, the Model S Plaid Plus; would have delivered 520 miles of range, and acceleration from 0 to 60 in less than two seconds.
Merger: Civitas (BCEI/XOG) reportedly buying DJ producer Crestone (BROE / Canada Pension) for $1.3 billion in stock and assumption of debt. Link here.
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Back to the Bakken
Williston sweet: $57.25
Active rigs:
| $69.42 | 6/7/2021 | 06/07/2020 | 06/07/2019 | 06/07/2018 | 06/07/2017 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Active Rigs | 21 | 12 | 64 | 60 | 52 |
Seven wells coming off confidential list --
Monday, June 7, 2021: 48 for the month, 69 for the quarter, 150 for the year:
- 37830, drl/NC, WPX, Dakota 1-36HUL, Heart Butte, first production 4/21; t--; cum 31K 4/21;
- 37677, drl/NC, MRO, Ortman USA 34-31TFH, Reunion Bay, no production data,
- 37378, drl/NC, CLR, Rodney 7-29H, Cedar Coulee, no production data,
- 36552, 507, Oasis, Thelen 5297 12-6 7B, Banks, t12/20; cum 111K 4/21;
Sunday, June 6, 2021: 44 for the month, 65 for the quarter, 146 for the year:
- 37250, 3,418, MRO, Hoss 41-3TFH, Killdeer, t12/20; cum 144K 4/21;
Saturday, June 5, 2021: 43 for the month, 64 for the quarter, 145 for the year:
- 37377 drl/NC, CLR, Rodney 6-29H1, Cedar Coulee, no production data,
- 36551, 486, Oasis, Thelen 5297 12-6 6T, Banks, t12/20; cum 78K 4/21;
RBN Energy: is biodiesel a viable low carbon fuel pathway or a fading fashion, part 4.
Biodiesel has long constituted a small but stable portion of the diesel fuel diet in North America, its production being driven primarily by the U.S. Renewable Fuel Standard and Biodiesel Income Tax Credit (BTC). Produced from a variety of feedstocks, including soybean oil, corn oil, animal fats, and used cooking oils, biodiesel offers a low “carbon intensity,” or CI — a big plus in California and other jurisdictions with low carbon fuel regulations. The incentives for producing biodiesel are substantial, but there are two big catches with the fuel: a limited supply of feedstocks and properties limiting how much can be blended with petroleum-based diesel. Today, we continue our series on low carbon fuel standards with a look at biodiesel’s pros, cons, history, and prospects.
We’ve received even more interest in this blog series than we expected — clearly, folks want to get a handle on the low carbon fuel policies being evaluated and implemented in the U.S. and Canada to meet increasingly stringent greenhouse-gas-related regulations. They also want to better understand the impact these rules could have on refined products markets. In Part 1, we provided an overview of various policies that have been adopted and are being discussed to reduce GHG emissions from on-road transportation fuel use. We also noted some of the more widely-used approaches being taken, including fuel economy standards, renewable blending requirements, zero emission vehicle mandates, and low-carbon fuel standard (LCFS) programs in California and Oregon, the Canadian province of British Columbia, and the proposed Canadian Clean Fuel Standard. LCFS programs are usually established and measured based on the carbon intensity (CI) of fuels used. CI is a measure of the lifecycle GHG emissions associated with producing, distributing, and consuming a fuel, which is measured in grams of carbon dioxide equivalent per megajoule (gCO2e/MJ). (That’s the simple version.) Typically, LCFS policies establish downward-sloping carbon-intensity benchmarks for the jurisdiction’s total on-road transportation fuel pool and incentivize the production and blending of lower-CI fuels to meet the benchmarks.