The Million Dollar Way (The Bakken Oil Blog): 11/21/18

Wednesday, November 21, 2018

Equinor's Richard And Cheryl Wells Updated -- November 21, 2018

The Equinor Richard and Cheryl wells have been updated; huge jumps in production starting about six months ago. I will post the graphics/updates tomorrow if I find time.

For newbies: note the dreaded Bakken decline rate.

Full production profile for one of the wells, as an example, as of 9/18, many/most of these wells are flowing without artificial lift (pump):

29680, 4,135, Equinor, Richard 8-5 5H, Banks, F, t10/16; cum 220K 9/18;

Pool	Date	Days	BBLS Oil	Runs	BBLS Water	MCF Prod	MCF Sold	Vent/Flare
BAKKEN	9-2018	25	7116	6854	9829	26921	24905	0
BAKKEN	8-2018	11	4226	4148	5097	14059	12892	0
BAKKEN	7-2018	10	4542	4826	5536	21753	20245	0
BAKKEN	6-2018	30	15919	15733	18632	60608	52212	5116
BAKKEN	5-2018	18	5773	5606	6743	18143	16944	13
BAKKEN	4-2018	4	2273	2382	2095	7336	6933	9
BAKKEN	3-2018	5	3044	3635	2611	13710	12877	0
BAKKEN	2-2018	28	20015	19812	13600	71997	56746	12641
BAKKEN	1-2018	31	10751	10296	7224	34671	33021	0
BAKKEN	12-2017	24	15508	16069	9728	48664	46638	178
BAKKEN	11-2017	25	22661	22251	11585	56555	54356	58
BAKKEN	10-2017	7	3890	3952	2423	9436	7622	1467
BAKKEN	9-2017	30	18739	18727	9939	43896	41898	21
BAKKEN	8-2017	31	18972	19196	11087	46572	44440	78
BAKKEN	7-2017	21	19667	19175	11008	51381	48396	724
BAKKEN	6-2017	11	3854	4037	2809	10224	9703	3
BAKKEN	5-2017	31	13421	13371	10154	32414	30734	284
BAKKEN	4-2017	19	11018	10807	7571	24751	23660	7
BAKKEN	3-2017	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	2-2017	0	0	90	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	1-2017	4	2909	3231	3412	5994	5496	120
BAKKEN	12-2016	24	3494	3082	3231	7279	6515	431
BAKKEN	11-2016	30	0	227	720	0	0	0
BAKKEN	10-2016	31	12068	11841	12900	19906	802

Happy Anniversary! ExxonMobil Has Been In The Bakken Almost Exactly Nine Years -- November 21, 2018

From a note dated November 29, 2009.

XOM will buy XTO, a significant player in the Bakken. XOM is now in the Bakken. With one deal, there could be another huge cash infusion into the North Dakota oil industry with XTO having new capital to expedite drilling program. Even CNBC mentioned "the Bakken in North Dakota" right after this deal was announced.

Ah, Yes .... Global Warming, Again -- November 21, 2018

From the tabloids, I guess, so it must be fake news. Whatever.

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To The Granddaughters

Years ago, near the end of my career, the USAF sent me to northern England on temporary duty. It was an incredibly wonderful time of my life. Many, many memories. I remember on Sunday mornings, running -- literally running, no car -- down the hill to the little store where I bought the two Sunday papers -- The [London] Times and The [London] Express (or maybe another one, I forget) -- they must have each cost about $5 or $6. I would also buy a dozen eggs, some ham, bread, etc., and run back "home" and cook an English breakfast and spend the morning reading the British papers.

The screenshot above -- The Express -- reminded me of those halcyon days.

Meanwhile, tonight I was getting our Thanksgiving meal prepared. May does not care for ham, and we're "tired" of turkey. Salmon we have three or four times a week. What to have for Thanksgiving?

Ah, yes. Lamb.

Lamb from Costco. Costco has the best meat selection. Period. Dot.

So, we marinade / marinate the lamb for at least 12 hours, preferably 24 hours.

CLR's Burr Federal Wells Have Been Updated -- November 21, 2018

Link here.

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What Brand Of Whiskey Did General Ulysses S Grant Drink?

From ZeroHedge. I hope we never lose this link. Archived. It's that important.

Abraham Lincoln, when informed that General Ulysses S. Grant was a drunk, famously asked Grant's accusers what whiskey he was drinking so Lincoln could send a barrel to every general in the army. Keep this in mind when President Donald Trump's critics accuse him of "racism" against blacks.

Under this "racist" President, black unemployment, since the government began keeping numbers, hit an all-time low in May.

Welcome To Pad Drilling, Bakken 2.5 -- November 19, 2018

From today's daily activity report -- November 21, 2018.

Look at the IPs. Record IPs are tracked here.

Nine producing wells (DUCs) reported as completed:

34101, A, MRO, Briek USA 13014H, Reunion Bay t--; cum --; 15-151-94;
34100, 4,857, MRO, Nora Jones 12-14TFH-2B, Reunion Bay, t10/18; cum --; 15-151-94;
33942, 6,516, MRO, McDonald USA 44-19H, Reunion Bay, t10/18; cum --; 30-151-93;
34104, 5,747, MRO, Hammerberg USA 14-14H, Reunion Bay, t10/18; cum --; 15-151-94;
34103, 7,471, MRO, Dye USA 14-14TFH-2B, Reunion Bay, t10/18; cum --; 15-151-94;
33980, 6,113, MRO, Michelle USA 14-14TFH, Reunion Bay, t10/18; cum --; 22-151-94;
33982, 6,325, MRO, Clara USA 11-23TFH-2B, Reunion Bay, t10/18; cum --; 22-151-94;
32024, 7,956, MRO, Ness USA 31-17H, Reunion Bay, t10/18; cum --; 8-151-93;
32025, 6,140, MRO, Becky USA 21-17TFH, Reunion Bay t10/18; cum --; 8-151-93;

Later, check this well when it comes back on status:

19514, 527, MRO, Jones USA 14-14H, Reunion Bay, t4/11; cum 524K 9/18;

Welcome To Pad Drilling; Welcome To Bakken 2.5 -- Twenty-Six Permits Renewed; Nine DUCs Reported As Completed -- Monster IPs -- November 21, 2018

Active rigs:

$54.63😕	11/21/2018	11/21/2017	11/21/2016	11/21/2015	11/21/2014
Active Rigs	62	55	38	65	191

Two new permits:

Operator: CLR
Field: Banks (McKenzie)
Comments: CLR has permits for a two-well Boulder Federal pad in 4-152-99;

Nine producing wells (DUCs) reported as completed:

34101, A, MRO, Briek USA 13014H, Reunion Bay t--; cum --; 15-151-94;
34100, 4,857, MRO, Nora Jones 12-14TFH-2B, Reunion Bay, t10/18; cum --; 15-151-94;
33942, 6,516, MRO, McDonald USA 44-19H, Reunion Bay, t10/18; cum --; 30-151-93;
34104, 5,747, MRO, Hammerberg USA 14-14H, Reunion Bay, t10/18; cum --; 15-151-94;
34103, 7,471, MRO, Dye USA 14-14TFH-2B, Reunion Bay, t10/18; cum --; 15-151-94;
33980, 6,113, MRO, Michelle USA 14-14TFH, Reunion Bay, t10/18; cum --; 22-151-94;
33982, 6,325, MRO, Clara USA 11-23TFH-2B, Reunion Bay, t10/18; cum --; 22-151-94;
32024, 7,956, MRO, Ness USA 31-17H, Reunion Bay, t10/18; cum --; 8-151-93;
32025, 6,140, MRO, Becky USA 21-17TFH, Reunion Bay t10/18; cum --; 8-151-93;

Twenty-six permits renewed:

BR (6): five Franklin permits and one Fritz Falls permit, all in Dunn County;
CLR (5): two Marlene permits; two Schroeder permits, all in Williams County; and, one Stewart permit in Divide County
XTO (5): five Rough Federal permits in McKenzie County;
Lime Rock Resources (2): a Kary permit and a State permit, both in Dunn County;
Crescent Point Energy (2): a CPEUSC Bennie permit and a CPEUSC David permit, both in Williams County;
Rimrock Oil & Gas (2): two Two Shields Butte permits in Dunn County;
Slawson (2): a Goblin Federal permit and a Submariner Federal permit, both in Mountrail County;
Windridge: a Sandpiper State permit in Burke County
Whiting: a Kostelecky permit in Stark County;

Just How Good Are The Bakken Wells? Production / Well / Day -- November 21, 2018

At this NDIC website, click on: "historical monthly oil production statistics." A pdf will download.

I wasn't sure if I would ever see this: a reversal in the downward trend of the average amount of oil being produced by North Dakota wells.

After a peak in the early days of the boom, the daily production per well in North Dakota began to fall, hitting an all-time (recent) low of 72 bbls/well/day. I was curious if/when it would level out and if it did level out, at what amount would it plateau?

Well, lookeee here --- after several years of steady decline, the average amount of oil being produced per each North Dakota well increased in the most recent reporting period.

How good are the Bakken wells? Prior to the boom, we were down to less than 40 bbls/well/day.

We hit a peak in the 7th year of the boom, 2014, at slightly more than 100 bbls/well/day.

Sharp Reversal: US NG Fill Rate -- And Winter Has Just Begun; Huge Natural Gas Draw Reported -- November 21, 2018 -- 134 BCF Withdrawal Vs Historic Average Of 24 BCF

Updates

Later, 6:44 p.m.: how big was this draw reported today? A reader who follows this very, very closely sent this (see first comment):

This seems to be the earliest triple-digit withdraw on record, after a quick scan of the modern data back to 2010.

In fact, some years didn't even see a triple digit withdrawal for the whole month of November. Average withdrawal for this week in November is 24 BCF. Compare that with the withdrawal this week, 2018: 134 Bcf.

There was 3,789 Bcf in storage as of November 15 2013 (ie, the November before the 2014 winter)

Later, 6:40 p.m.: New England is hanging in there just fine. See this link. Tomorrow should be fine -- a holiday and then Friday and the weekend should be fine. Next real test: next Monday and next week.

Original Post

From November 9, 2018:

See North American blizzard of 2005.

Today, the actual data from the EIA:

Right on cue: a reader two weeks ago predicted that either last weekend or this past weekend would be the last weekend that we would see a net increase in natural gas storage. It looks like the week before last was the last week this season that we would see a "net increase."

The small print:

first week this season, a net decrease
a decrease of 134 Bcf from the previous week
stocks were 620 Bcf less than last year
stocks were 710 Bcf below the five-year average
It's hard to read on the graphic, but it appears:

in 2014: 3,400 Bcf in storage
in 2018: 3,100 Bcf (small print says 3,113 Bcf)
3400-3100 = 300
300 / 3400 = close to 10% below what we saw in the worst winter in recent history (2014)

Weekly US Crude Oil Stores Jump Again -- November 21, 2018 -- Re-Balancing Back In Focus

Link here.

US weekly crude oil inventory data, EIA:

increased by a whopping 4.9 million bbls; WTI holds, actually up almost 2% despite this -- something is going on ....
US crude oil inventory: 446.9 million bbls
refinery operating capacity: 92.7% -- fairly robust
total product supplied: up an astounding 6.9% over the same four-week period one year ago
distillate fuel: up an astounding 9.6% over the same four-week period one year ago
jet fuel: continues its upward trajectory -- up 2.4% compared with the same four-week period last year

See the "re-balancing" tag.

Wow, it's hard to believe I started tracking this issue -- re-balancing -- back on January 24, 2017. I tracked it for about a year before I finally felt I had an understanding of the issue.

My first spreadsheet was posted May 3, 2017. This was about the time Saudi Arabia knew it had to turn off the spigots. Saudi tried killing the US shale sector by opening the spigots from 2014 to 2016. That tactic almost drove Saudi Arabia into bankruptcy.

So, the data points, US crude oil inventory:

pre-2000, historical inventory: about 350 million bbls; the US got along "just fine" with 350 million bbls of crude oil in storage through the 60s, 70s, 80s, and 90s
2017: 530 million bbls
need to re-balance: back to 450 million bbls (back in early 2017, I set 350 million bbls in storage as the "re-balance" target)
my threshold: 400 million bbls
I'll move the "re-balance" target to 400 million bbls in the spreadsheet below because it's pretty obvious this has been re-set
it's interesting that John Kemp, Reuters' oil analyst no longer tweets weekly US crude oil inventory; my hunch: he will soon start posting that data

I believe that we dropped to a low of around 420 million bbls after a year of re-balancing. But since then, US shale production has skyrocketed -- outpacing experts' forecasts.

Today, we stand at 447 million bbls. So the spreadsheet begins anew, but slightly different format:

Explanation:

First column: chronologic week, beginning November 21, 2018
change w-o-w: week-over-week change in US crude oil inventory as reported by the EIA
weeks to RB: weeks to re-balance; at the current rate of drawdown, the number of weeks it will take to get back to 400 million bbls; this will be based on the on-going average, not just the current week
because there was a "build" this week, it is obvious one, weeks to "re-balance" is N/A

US crude oil supply, days of supply, for newbies:

below 20 days, very, very bullish for oil sector
22 days -- about the historic average before the US shale revolution
26 days -- about the average to expect with US shale revolution and some constraint
over 30 days -- very, very bearish for oil sector

Current data:

Up until a few weeks ago, "we" were trending down toward 22 days, but since then trending back toward 27 days, link here:

For newbies: 22 days versus 27 days may not sound like much, but 22 days is close to 21 days, or three weeks; 27 days is close to 28 days, or four weeks. In every sector in the US, "just-in-time" delivery is defined as "two-weeks of inventory." For the US oil sector, JIT is about three weeks. The range is 21 days to 35 days, three weeks to five weeks. We are pretty much in the middle of that range.

The Market, Energy, Political Page, T+15 -- November 21, 2018

I may be wrong. We'll see.

Earlier I wrote:

Prior to this Washington Post / CIA story, President Trump had "unlimited" leverage over the Prince.

With the release of the story, the president no longer has "unlimited" leverage over the Prince. In fact, the president may now have more challenges; certainly, Saudi Arabia has a lot with which to deal. It's hard for me to believe that any responsible business man in the United States would want to be seen with the man pictured above.

Reuters' oil analyst sees continued huge leverage over the Saudis. From twitter:

My hunch: Kemp is correct; I'm wrong.

But, and this is the big "but": US Congress is not likely to let this issue "go away" any time soon.

As for me, Trump could lose "bigley" on this one.

4Q17 Wells Updated -- These Are Wells That Came Off The Confidential List One Year Ago

Almost all of the 4Q17 DUCs have been completed. For newbies, look at the incredible MRO wells.

Random Update Of An Old BR He Well In Elidah Oil Field -- November 21, 2018

According to FracFocus, this well has not been re-fracked.

The well:

21541, 1,202, BR, HE 14-20TFH, Elidah, t7/12; cum 249K 9/18; 7,250 bbls over 9 days extrapolates to 24,000 bbls over 30 days;

Recent production data:

Pool	Date	Days	BBLS Oil	Runs	BBLS Water	MCF Prod	MCF Sold	Vent/Flare
BAKKEN	9-2018	9	7250	7231	15282	9945	0	9945
BAKKEN	8-2018	27	5426	5704	16656	8480	0	8480
BAKKEN	7-2018	31	3427	2746	15924	3075	0	3075
BAKKEN	6-2018	27	1867	2261	13088	5764	5466	298
BAKKEN	5-2018	22	1069	454	11481	2375	2375	0
BAKKEN	4-2018	30	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	3-2018	31	1	0	0	4	0	0
BAKKEN	2-2018	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	1-2018	20	5536	5789	8359	10190	10187	0
BAKKEN	12-2017	16	3372	3554	7881	6427	6425	0
BAKKEN	11-2017	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	10-2017	12	1704	1369	680	2048	2048	0
BAKKEN	9-2017	4	528	463	220	283	104	179
BAKKEN	8-2017	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	7-2017	3	123	429	54	373	373	0
BAKKEN	6-2017	30	2035	2265	1335	4924	4884	40
BAKKEN	5-2017	31	2064	2028	2052	4859	4859	0
BAKKEN	4-2017	30	2098	2034	1231	4913	4913	0
BAKKEN	3-2017	31	2254	2076	1343	5544	5540	0
BAKKEN	2-2017	28	2065	2313	1596	4534	4530	0

BR's Dodge Wells In Dimmick Lake Are Now At Max Production -- November 21, 2018

Production data for the BR Dodge wells in Dimmick Lake has been updated. Note, again, the huge production jump for #17200, a well that has not been re-fracked.

Note Amount Of Sand Used In Middle Bakken Wells Vs Three Forks B1 Wells; The Enerplus "Heavy Metal" Pad -- November 21, 2018

Wells coming off confidential list today have been posted. Note the different amounts of sand to frack the middle Bakken compared to fracking the Three Forks B1.

Nine Wells Coming Off The Confidential List Today -- November 21, 2018 -- Hubbert's Peak Oil Theory Is Dead -- Rigzone

Agree completely: from Rigzone -- Shell is wrong -- global oil demand can only increase. Archived.

Bolstered by the U.S. shale revolution, global oil production has surged by over 20 percent in the past 15 years. The great rise has put to bed the “peak oil production” theory but it has not stopped the apparent new concern of “peak oil demand,” now portrayed as perhaps the main threat to the future of the world’s oil industry.

In fact, it’s hardly just anti-oil environmental groups; many of the major producers themselves (Royal Dutch Shell in particular) assert that global oil consumption will soon peak and thereafter begin its terminal decline. The basis of this belief is the growth of electric vehicle sales and the need to reduce oil use to combat climate change.

Yet for oil, what’s past is prologue: even with higher prices, both the Energy Information Administration (EIA) and International Energy Agency (IEA) modeling have repeatedly forecast more demand for as far as the eye can see. After all, oil is the world’s most important fuel, supplying 35 percent of all energy used. While the link between economic growth and oil use can be viewed from a variety of perspectives, the two clearly progress in tandem – a long studied link demonstrated in regression modeling and peer-reviewed studies.

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Back to the Bakken

Wells coming off the confidential list today -- Wednesday, November 21, 2018:

34053, SI/NC, WPX, Howling Wolf 28-33HT, Wolf Bay, no production data,
34050, SI/NC, MRO, State Oster 14-36TFH, Bailey, no production data,
33516, 962, Enerplus, Sodium 147-93-05B-08H-TF, Moccasin Creek, 35 stages; 5 million lbs; t5/18; cum 121K 9/18;
33515, 1,828, Enerplus, Chrome 147-93-05B-08H, Moccasin Creek, 37 stages; 12.4 million lbs; t5/18; cum 148K 9/18;
33514, 1,907, Enerplus, Aluminum 148-93-32CH, McGregory Buttes; t5/18; cum 78K 9/18;
33513, 1,157, Enerplus, Gold 147-93-05B-08H-TF, Moccasin Creek, 39 stages; 5.6 million bls; t5/18; cum 138K 9/18;
33512, 1,227, Enerplus, Zirconium 147-93-05B-08H, Moccasin Creek, 38 stages; 12.6 million lbs; t5/18; cum 136K 9/18;
31194, SI/NC, Slawson, Jore Federal 1-12H,
30484, 405, Lime Rock Resources, Emil Veverka 5-20-17H-143-95L, Murphy Creek, t6/18; cum 45K 9/18;