Goodnight -- See You All Tomorrow -- January 1, 2020

The 82nd: Keeping America Great ... And Safe -- January 1, 2020

First things first: the granddaddy of them all. Wisconsin Badgers have lost the last four of their Rose Bowl appearances. Lost tonight by one point, 28 -27.

Futures mean squat, but Dow futures are up 70 points right now (7:57 p.m. CT, January 1, 2019).

China's manufacturing activity expanded in December, 2019. Sources.

Geopolitics: the anti-Benghazi? Trump, 4 -- Iran, 0. So, we have:

• the embassy staff in the safe room
• a handful of US marines holding off the hordes
• a contingent of US marines helicoptering in to reinforce
• and now --

Hundreds of U.S. paratroopers began a deployment to the Middle East early Wednesday, January 1, 2019, the Army said, the morning after Defense Secretary Mark Esper ordered some 750 82nd Airborne Division troops be sent immediately in response to unrest in Iraq.

“At the direction of the Commander in Chief, I have authorized the deployment of an infantry battalion from the Immediate Response Force (IRF) of the 82nd Airborne Division to the U.S. Central Command area of operations,” Esper said in a statement.

The rare rapid deployment, which adds to the nearly 14,000 troops that have deployed to the region to deter Iranian threats since this summer, comes after mobs waving militia flags stormed the U.S. Embassy in Baghdad on Tuesday.

The NY Times called these mobs, "mourners." 

Quick: name the SecDef.

Quick: name the Joints Chief of Staff. 

Under Carter: hostage-situation for 444 days.

Under Obama: Benghazi ("What does it matter?" -- HRC)

Under Trump: no. The buck stops here.  My hunch: Trump was channeling "Dirty Harry"/Clint Eastwood / John Wayne / SSgt Barry Sadler when he decided to send in the 82nd Airborne.

The Ballad of the Green Berets, SSgt Barry Sadler
I was ambivalent about posting this video until I read the comments. No longer ambivalent.

Later, one week later: the Dems support Iranian terrorists; attack Trump.

A BR Lillibridge-Veeder Well Has Just Gone Over 500K Bbls -- January 1, 2020

The well:

• 32910, 555, BR, Lillibridge 3C MBH, Blue Buttes, t9/17; cum 505K 10/19;

Recent production:

Pool	Date	Days	BBLS Oil	Runs	BBLS Water	MCF Prod	MCF Sold	Vent/Flare
BAKKEN	10-2019	29	1112	1132	729	1074	664	338
BAKKEN	9-2019	18	4384	4491	1576	9088	8982	61
BAKKEN	8-2019	31	12415	12368	3346	16263	16094	92
BAKKEN	7-2019	31	12284	12280	3248	11399	10142	1180
BAKKEN	6-2019	24	8858	8912	3620	4129	259	3810
BAKKEN	5-2019	31	11285	11339	4733	10243	6128	4038
BAKKEN	4-2019	29	17018	17397	5355	13074	2491	10511
BAKKEN	3-2019	31	21690	21439	2977	13791	8096	5618
BAKKEN	2-2019	28	19466	19221	2701	18454	18024	360
BAKKEN	1-2019	28	4860	4990	813	9628	9558	0
BAKKEN	12-2018	19	6862	6592	2080	8473	7379	1047
BAKKEN	11-2018	24	14516	14950	2679	9950	7349	2541
BAKKEN	10-2018	19	11237	11345	2330	10076	5220	4809
BAKKEN	9-2018	30	19956	19861	3803	22102	18988	3040

See the rest of the wells in this area at this post.

Petroshale Getting Ready To Frack Some Bear Den Wells? -- January 1, 2020

See this post.

*********************************

Bookends

Different Drum, The Stone Poneys
This is such an incredible song. The lyrics are particularly poignant.

From wiki: "Different Drum" is a song written by Michael Nesmith in 1965. The song tells of a pair of lovers, one of whom wants to settle down, while the other wants to retain a sense of freedom and independence. Its narrator is the lover who wants to remain free, telling the other that "we'll both live a lot longer" if they part ways now.

I would love to know Michael Nesmith's back story when writing this song.

The bookend:

Taxi, Henry Chapin
From wiki:

"Taxi" is a song written and performed by Harry Chapin from his 1972 album Heads & Tales.

Chapin debuted the song on NBC's "The Tonight Show Starring Johnny Carson" in 1972, which was followed by many calls and telegrams sent from viewers to NBC demanding that Chapin return to the show.

It was the first time in the show's history that host Johnny Carson brought a performer back the very next night for an encore performance.

Breakdown Of Oil & Gas Permits Issued By NDIC In CY2019

Permits, #35899 - #37295, inclusive

Total number of permits issued in calendar year, 2019: 1,397 oil and gas permits.

By operator:

• BR: 90
• Bruin: 43
• CLR: 187
• Enerplus: 57
• EOG: 19
• Equinor: 37
• Hess: 164
• Kraken: 46
• MRO: 102
• Newfield: 42
• Nine Point: 21
• Oasis: 23
• RimRock: 67
• Slawson: 57
• Whiting: 105
• WPX: 64
• XTO: 122
• Zavanna: 20

By county, not all counties are listed:

• Dunn: 320
• McKenzie: 454
• Mountrail: 264
• Williams: 328
• Total from those four counties: 1,377

By field, not all fields are listed:

• Alger: 10
• Alkali Creek: 33
• Antelope: 24
• Bailey: 13
• Baker: 8
• Banks: 36
• Bear Den: 11
• Beaver Lodge: 33
• Big Bend: 43
• Big Butte: 13
• Blue Buttes: 12
• Capa: 26
• Charlson: 11
• Chimney Butte: 14
• Clarks Creek: 9
• Eagle Nest: 29
• East Fork: 16
• Elidah: 22
• Elm Tree: 18
• Haystack Butte: 38
• Heart Butte: 54
• Killdeer: 21
• Lone Tree Lake: 18
• Long Creek: 50
• Mandaree: 34
• Manitou: 16
• McGregory Buttes: 16
• Moccasin Creek: 18
• Murphy Creek: 13
• North Fork: 19
• Oliver: 17
• Parshall: 11
• Pershing: 19
• Poe: 9
• Reunion Bay: 31
• Sand Creek: 18
• Sanish: 83
• Siverston: 29
• South Fork: 26
• South Tobacco Garden: 27
• Spotted Horn: 12
• Squaw Creek: 32
• Stony Creek: 11
• Tioga: 28
• Wildcat: 5

Small Jump In Production -- MRO, Wardner In Killdeer Oil Field -- January 1, 2020

The well:

• 19626, 1,060, MRO, Wardner 24-35H, Killdeer, t5/11; cum 235K 10/19; 

Recent production:

Pool	Date	Days	BBLS Oil	Runs	BBLS Water	MCF Prod	MCF Sold	Vent/Flare
BAKKEN	10-2019	30	6921	7045	6298	5582	0	4978
BAKKEN	9-2019	18	4951	4757	6595	3099	0	2687
BAKKEN	8-2019	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	7-2019	0	0	55	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	6-2019	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	5-2019	31	1061	994	586	829	471	110
BAKKEN	4-2019	30	1113	1154	537	868	570	49
BAKKEN	3-2019	31	1177	1377	553	949	625	65
BAKKEN	2-2019	28	1096	980	601	897	607	61
BAKKEN	1-2019	31	1204	1124	556	968	651	57
BAKKEN	12-2018	31	1216	1240	569	1125	659	204
BAKKEN	11-2018	30	1174	1127	555	1093	692	148

Production after initial frack back in 2011:

BAKKEN	10-2011	31	5109	4959	2055	3473	3259	28
BAKKEN	9-2011	30	4914	4971	1907	3370	2959	231
BAKKEN	8-2011	25	5418	5622	2022	3654	3450	60
BAKKEN	7-2011	21	4118	4050	1465	3010	2619	282
BAKKEN	6-2011	30	8774	8585	3668	5940	5640	120
BAKKEN	5-2011	29	15176	14836	4952	9968	5592	4206
BAKKEN	4-2011	3	38	0	193	37	0	2

Back On Line -- Small Jump In Production -- Lime Rock, Irene, Alger Oil Field -- January 1, 2020

The well:

• 24511, 52, Lime Rock, Irene 12-13H-24, Alger, t4/13; cum 140K 11/19; neighboring wells fracked; back on line 9/19; looks like jump in production; check in another month;

Recent production:

Pool	Date	Days	BBLS Oil	Runs	BBLS Water	MCF Prod	MCF Sold	Vent/Flare
BAKKEN	11-2019	30	4149	4009	4524	1850	534	834
BAKKEN	10-2019	31	4856	5083	8169	2008	636	842
BAKKEN	9-2019	10	1390	796	2829	710	27	524
BAKKEN	8-2019	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	7-2019	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	6-2019	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	5-2019	2	89	265	13	58	32	7
BAKKEN	4-2019	30	1061	1085	454	1151	864	4

Production after initial frack, back in 2013:

BAKKEN	11-2013	30	3584	3333	749	1582	1462	0
BAKKEN	10-2013	31	4187	4477	934	2760	2760	0
BAKKEN	9-2013	30	4519	4234	930	3115	3115	0
BAKKEN	8-2013	31	5543	5748	1129	3525	3525	0
BAKKEN	7-2013	31	7289	7412	1578	3802	3314	488
BAKKEN	6-2013	30	5522	5386	1746	1353	780	573
BAKKEN	5-2013	21	4940	5305	1586	1	1	0
BAKKEN	4-2013	25	5221	4216	2116	2956	2233	723

Back On Line With A Small Jump In Production -- WPX, Delores Sand -- Antelope-Sanish -- January 1, 2020

The well:

• July 23, 2019: neighboring wells fracked: #21104, 228, WPX, Delores Sand 29-32H, Antelope-Sanish, t4/12; cum 424K 11/19;  remains off line 8/19; just returned to production, 9/19 (ten days); small jump in production 10/19;

Recent production:

Pool	Date	Days	BBLS Oil	Runs	BBLS Water	MCF Prod	MCF Sold	Vent/Flare
SANISH	11-2019	30	6332	6318	3617	10491	7990	1335
SANISH	10-2019	31	6328	6256	4875	10486	7538	1797
SANISH	9-2019	10	715	709	743	1183	556	152
SANISH	8-2019	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
SANISH	7-2019	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
SANISH	6-2019	0	0	137	0	0	0	0
SANISH	5-2019	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
SANISH	4-2019	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
SANISH	3-2019	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
SANISH	2-2019	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
SANISH	1-2019	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
SANISH	12-2018	1	52	132	1	90	0	84
SANISH	11-2018	29	1965	1872	681	3728	3053	0
SANISH	10-2018	31	2207	2278	806	5256	4525	0

Transition -- January 1, 2020

The five most outrageous 2020 doomsday predictions that did not pan out -- as compiled by Fox News, and posted January 1, 2020.

#1 -global warming

• 1990
• Washington Post
• Earth will warm on average by about 3 degrees Fahrenheit by the year 2020
• NASA: earth has warmed about 1 degree, thirty years later

#2 -- oil

• 1989
• NY Times
• "William Stevens, the president of Exxon, USA, said ... by the year 2020 there would not be enough domestic oil left to keep me interested."
• thirty years later: US proven oil reserves are dramatically higher
• search doofus-in-chief on the blog

#3 -- global warming

• 2003
• UN Environment Program on CNN
• the snows of Mount Kilimanjaro in Tanzania would disappear within the next 20 years
• thirty years later, the glaciers are still there, but now the same organizations say the glaciers will most likely disappear within 25 years

#4 -- famine

• 2000
• Discover Magazine
• a billion people will starve due to missing the tech revolution
• in fact, thirty years later, from 2000 to 2020, global extreme poverty fell by about a billion people
• World Bank: tech allowed people in developing nations to access capital, production know-how, and aid from developed countries

#5 -- global warming

• 1997
• Reuters cited a prediction in the Lancet medical journal
• 8 million people would die by 2020 unless climate policies changed
• "it's amazing that the public can continue to believe apocalyptic predictions despite a 95% decline in weather-related deaths in the last 100 years (and despite more and more millions of people living along the coasts)

 

Notes From All Over, Part 2 -- January 1, 2020

Net exporter: hardly news any more. From Rigzone. US returns to being a net oil exporter. 

Huge: Shell makes Haynesville shale deal. Rigzone.

• buyer: Castleton Commodities International LLC's subsidiary, Castleton Resources LLC (CR) 
• seller: Shell's subsidiary, BG US Production Company, LLC
• 222,400 net acres
• 334 million cubic feet equivalent per day
• East Texas and North Louisiana
• at same time, Tokyo gas American Ltd will increase its interest in CR from 30% to 46%
• if I did the math correctly, to put this in perspective, the Bakken produces about 8 million cubic feet equivalent (3 billion cubic feet/day / 365 days)

McDermott: Chapter 11 pending; no link; story everywhere;

Year-end update: global oil production, supply, demand, over at Rigzone;

• OPEC+ will have a devil of a time capping production
• four non-OPEC producers will be huge thorn in side of OPEC
• Brazil
• Canada
• Norway
• Guyana
• and, of course, the US is now a net oil exporter for the first time in decades
• some traders are betting US shale production could slow in 2020, helping to maintain prices
• operative words in previous data point: "some" and "could"

Finally:

• Delek and partners achiever first gas offshore Israel -- Rigzone;  
• Delek, Noble Energy, Ratio Oil Exploration
• jointly announced the find from the largest natural gas field in the eastern Mediterranean
• capital expenditures were $150 million under budget
• recoverable resources of 22 trillion cubic feet (Tcf) of natural gas

********************************

Well-Played ... by the US

It's not over yet, but it appears the Iran-backed militia were the big losers. The Iranian leadership obviously hoped:

• that the two dozen or so militia would escalate into a much larger mob;
• that the militia would score a hostage or two;

Neither happened, and the US did not let this become another Benghazi.

The US Marines guarding the US embassy in Iraq must have been absolutely incredible. US reinforcements rushed in and more are on the way. If nothing else happens, this will be off the front pages by the end of the week and Iran will be left wondering what the US will do next.

In the previous administration we would have gotten another speech and possibly another Benghazi.

No doubt, Kim Jong-Un is watching closely.

Facts And Factoids, Notes From All Over, Part 1 -- January 1, 2020

Roger Ailes died in 2017.

Equity:

• the Dow's best stock in 2019: AAPL (Apple) -- Barron's
• the best stock of the decade: Netflix -- CNBC; MDW called it on March 21, 2013;

US universities, 2019, rankings -- WSJ -- link here;

• of all public and private universities in the US: Harvard ranked #1
• of the top 24 public and private universities in the US: all are private institutions
• of the top 50 public and private universities in the US, only ten are public
• the #1 public university in the US is UCLA: ranks #25 among all US public and private universities
• UC-Santa Cruz: once one of the highest ranking, is now ranked #251
• USC, private, seldom, if ever, ranks ahead of UCLA, is now ranked #18 among all public and private universities; UCLA is #25
• under Janet Napolitano, the University of California system has fallen further in rankings than ever before
• the "UC" schools
• UCLA: #25
• UC Berkeley: #34
• UC Davis: #36
• UC San Diego: #37
• UC Santa Barbara: #71
• UC Irvine: #73
• UC Riverside: #189
• UC Santa Cruz: #251
• UC Merced: unranked; 10th and newest of the UC system
• US San Francisco: unranked; only graduate programs

States, winners and losers: wealthy millennials are --

• leaving: New York, Illinois, Virginia, Massachusetts, and Pennsylvania (in that order); and,
• heading to: California, Washington State, Texas, Colorado, and Florida (again, in that order)

TCM's  "cocktail noir": the classic bourbon Manhattan cocktail.

Charles Cornwallis, 1st Marquess Cornwallis, 1738 - 1805 --

• surrendered British forces in North America to a combined American and French force at the Siege of Yorktown in 1781
• recruited as Governor General of India by the East India Company to stop the same from happening there
• defeating Tipu Sultan in 1782, in the Third Anglo-Mysore War, essentially brought all of India under control of the EIC
• that tea that was dumped into Boston Harbor, 1773
• Sons of Liberty, Boston, MA
• rags-to-riches merchants
• tea was owned by EIC
• 90,000 pounds of EIC tea
• at the time, worth £9,659; today, worth over £1 million

Unlucky #13: the number of Tesla crashes in the wild that have been recorded; most recent

• most recent, #13:
• December 29, 2019 -- two days ago
• Gardena, Los Angeles, CA 
• exited 91 Freeway in Gardena, ran a red light, and stuck a 2006 Honda Civic
• Honda Civic's two occupants killed
• two occupants in the Tesla, minor injuries
• by the way, #12
• a Tesla Model 3 rear-ended a parked police car in Connecticut 

Dennis Gartman: final 2019 prediction -- commodity stocks are so low, they can only go up in 2020

• admits he completely missed the "tech" surge in 2019
• short segment on Fox Business News yesterday (New Year's Eve)