California Had Jerry Brown, Bullet Train; Mexico Has AMLO, Refinery -- July 26, 2019

Link here.

I've followed this story fairly closely. Two facts I did not know:

• Rocio Nahle, who became energy minister under Mexico’s new government in December, thinks the country can replicate Reliance Industries Ltd’s Jamnagar refining compound. But there are a few snags.
• Mexico is proposing to build a new refinery for $8 billion in three years, the amount of time and money it took Reliance to complete just a single phase of its complex. And Mexico plans to do so without using private funds, creating a strain on public coffers and calling into question the efficiency of a state-owned facility when the country’s six refineries are already losing more money the more fuels they produce.
• Mexico’s own refineries are operating at about 35% of their capacity because Pemex hasn’t had the funds to invest in them, making the country reliant on foreign fuels to meet domestic demand. About 65% of the gasoline that Pemex sells in Mexico is imported, mostly from the U.S.

Rocio Nahle, I guess, is to AMLO what Rocinante was to Don Quixote.

Bakken Cookfest Comes To Bowman, ND -- July 26, 2019

Wow, I wish I was there.

Link here.

From the linked article:

In 2018, North Dakota produced an average 1,276,572 barrels of oil every single day, making it the number 2 producing state in the entire nation.

Every year, the North Dakota Petroleum Council picks out two small communities in the Bakken region to celebrate the success of North Dakota oil production, and this year they came to Bowman to host the Bakken Cookfest.

The first part of the cookfest was dedicated to an education session for the general public. Experts from the industry and the ND Dept. of Mineral Resources gave updates on the North Dakota Bakken region. Presenters discussed oil collection rates, explained the science behind oil drilling, and showed projections of where future oil production is headed.

Another main focus of the session was highlighting new technologies in the gas and oil industry. According to the ND Department of Mineral Resources, improving gas collection methods and drilling technology is the next big step in the industry.

Kathy Neset from NESET consulting services said that as time moves forward, oil rigs will continue to become more efficient and have the ability to drill more wells.

The event wasn’t all based on presentations and education, however. The cookfest also provided both food and live entertainment in downtown Bowman.

At the cookfest, different oil businesses and corporations served the community free BBQ style food. Balon Corporation’s regional manager Brian Grady was just one of the many oil representatives serving brisket to Bowman folks passing by.

“There are only two of these petroleum camp cookouts per year and we also do oilfield golf tournaments as well,” said Grady.

Much more at the link.

The other cookfest this summer: Van Hook, ND.

A family event; alcohol free.

******************************************

National Junior Olympics

Summer, 2019

Southern California

America! What A Great Country! Americans Keeping America Great! -- July 26, 2019

Updates

July 27, 2019: folks should look at the "GDP Personal Consumption SAAR" chart and do their own thinking. The zerohedge article at the link is a typical zerohedge conspiracy article whose author completely misreads the data. I have no doubt in my mind that the government data is correct. I don't think I can even buy into some tweaking on the margins by bureaucrats for political reasons. The data is accurate; how people interpret it is another question and in this case zerohedge got it completely wrong. But I do give the editors credit for sticking with their anti-government conspiracy agenda.

Here's my take on the zerohedge article. It's one of my better ones; you don't want to miss it. LOL. 

Original Post 

People spend money:

• when they feel "rich"; and,
• when they feel optimistic

One can argue, from 2009 - 2016, they had neither feeling.

One can argue that from 2017 to the present they had both.

Graphic:

If the graphic is "too busy" for you, the unadorned graphic is at the link.

The trends are important, not necessarily the quarterly amounts or the quarterly changes. 

Where is this coming from?

The link.

Spend some tie on this article. I think it's the best article I've seen in six months.

************************************

So, how did Americans spend their money?

Healthcare? A lot of has been written about how much Americans spend on healthcare.

Gasoline?

There is so much in this article. I will come back to it later.

Seven New Permits; Rigs Back To 59 -- July 26, 2019

Some of this was posted earlier today. I am re-posting it because it had become buried by the end of the day.

Active rigs:

$56.18	7/26/2019	07/26/2018	07/26/2017	07/26/2016	07/26/2015
Active Rigs	59	63	60	33	73

Seven new permits, #36790 - #36796, inclusive:

• Operators: Sinclair, Hess
• Fields: Lone Butte (Dunn County), Manitou (Mountrail)
• Comments: 
• Sinclair has permits for a 4-well Harris Federal pad in lot 2 / section 5-146-97, Lone Butte oil field,
• Hess has permits for a 3-well EN-Ruland pad in lot 1 / section 4-155-94, Manitou oil field

One permit canceled:

• Oasis: an A. Johnson permit in McKenzie County

NDIC hearing dockets for August, 2019, posted today. See this link.

Reason #1 Why I Love To Blog -- Reader Feedback -- July 26, 2019

Wow, I learn a lot from "my" readers. I really appreciate the feedback.

Earlier today there seemed to be a discrepancy between what Baker Hughes was reporting and what the NDIC was reporting when it came to counting rigs. See this post.

A reader provided the answer:

• Baker Hughes only counts rigs that are actually, really turning the bit
• NDIC counts rigs even if they are only in the process of setting up

Huge feedback for me. Much appreciated.

I've learned (from Slawson) there are "no" typos when it comes to data that is posted by the NDIC or Baker Hughes.

Reason #1 Why I Love To Blog -- Reader Feedback -- Another Well With 50-Fold Increase In Production -- July 26, 2019

I never would have caught this one. A huge "thank you" to the reader who sent this to me.

The well:

• 17325, 130, Oasis, Thorlaksen 11-14H, 10 stages, 1.35 million lbs, Gros Ventre, t1/09; cum 52K 5/19;

FracFocus: no data suggesting a re-frack. Last NDIC sundry form back in 2013. This well was off line for about one month.

Jump in production: 10,206 bbls over 30 days / 200 bbls / 30 days = 51-fold increase in production.

Recent production, 8,846 bbls over 26 days extrapolates to 10,207 bbls over 30 days:

Pool	Date	Days	BBLS Oil	Runs	BBLS Water	MCF Prod	MCF Sold	Vent/Flare
BAKKEN	5-2019	26	8846	8665	5096	5883	5633	0
BAKKEN	4-2019	4	1	0	363	40	0	0
BAKKEN	3-2019	20	144	311	126	332	132	200
BAKKEN	2-2019	28	129	0	312	466	186	0
BAKKEN	1-2019	31	198	294	273	590	280	0
BAKKEN	12-2018	31	176	0	82	1014	704	0
BAKKEN	11-2018	30	193	322	204	537	237	0
BAKKEN	10-2018	30	188	0	245	576	276	0
BAKKEN	9-2018	30	179	532	197	557	257	0
BAKKEN	8-2018	31	228	0	561	597	287	0
BAKKEN	7-2018	31	188	316	182	358	48	0
BAKKEN	6-2018	30	175	0	234	377	77	0
BAKKEN	5-2018	30	191	323	389	570	270	0
BAKKEN	4-2018	30	199	0	110	619	319	0

 The graphic:

Wells in this graphic:

• 35624, conf, Liberty Resources Management Company, LLC, Gliko 159-93-23-25-1MBHX, runs to the southeast: 

Date	Oil Runs	MCF Sold
5-2019	21957	0

• 35623, conf, Liberty Resources Management Company, LLC, Garnes 159-03-14-2-1MBHX, runs to the north:

Date	Oil Runs	MCF Sold
5-2019	17201	0
4-2019	629	0

• 36052, loc, Liberty Resources Management Company, LLC, Dolores 159-93-22-34-3TFHX, Gros Ventre,

• 36053, loc, Liberty Resources Management Company, LLC, Orris 159-93-15-3-4MBHX, Gros Ventre,

Holy Mackerel -- Almost Missed This One -- Completely Unexpected -- July 26, 2019

Generally speaking, publicly traded companies announce dividend changes one a year (they generally declare dividends on a quarterly basis, but tend to increase/decrease dividends on a yearly basis).

Let's look at UNP. This is hard to believe.

Dividends:

• 11/17: $0.665
• 2/18: $0.73
• 5/18: $0.73
• 8/18: $0.80
• 11/18: $0.80
• 2/19: $0.88
• 5/19: $0.88
• declares for 8/18: $0.97 (see link)

I was not anticipating another change in the dividend for at least two more quarters. And remember: based on the Cass Freight Index, folks are forecasting:

• a recession by the end of the year
• decreased earnings for railroads

In late 2017, UNP was paying 66.5 cents/share. In August, 2018, UNP will be paying 97 cents/share. If a widow was receiving $50,000 / year in UNP dividends back in 2017, that widow is not anticipating almost $75,000 / year.

UNP shares are moving up nicely today.

Assuming UNP is a proxy for BNSF, can you even imagine how well Warren Buffett is doing today?

I haven't look at BRK-B in a long, long time. So, today, at 209, well off its 52-week high of $240 or thereabouts.

Disclaimer: this is not an investment site. Do not make any investment, financial, job, travel, career, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here in the last twelve years of blogging.

By the way, Norfolk Southern increased its dividend by a similar amount as UNP; NSC announced dividend increase today from 86 cents to 94 cents.

Some Have Active Rigs In North Dakota Down To 47 -- July 26, 2019

Updates

Later, 3:27 p.m. CT: see first comment. There is an explanation for the "discrepancy."

Original Post

Apparently rigs don't matter.

• Z4 Research, active rig count down to 47 in North Dakota

• NDIC:

$56.09	7/26/2019	07/26/2018	07/26/2017	07/26/2016	07/26/2015
Active Rigs	59	63	60	33	73

• Director's cuts:

It's possible NDIC is reporting "all" active rigs regardless of what they are doing; while Z4 Research is reporting only rigs targeting crude oil. Either way, no big deal. North Dakota producing near record amounts of oil on ever-decreasing number of active rigs 

Seven new permits, #36790 - #36796, inclusive:

• Operators: Sinclair, Hess
• Fields: Lone Butte, Manitou
• Comments: 
• Sinclair has permits for a 4-well Harris Federal pad in lot 2 / section 5-146-97, Lone Butte oil field,
• Hess has permits for a 3-well EN-Ruland pad in lot 1 / section 4-155-94, Manitou oil field

NDIC hearing dockets for August, 2019, posted today. See this link.

We'll Come Back To This Later -- July 26, 2019

Lots of activity in this area of the Banks oil field. Note how many wells are being drilled only half a mile apart.

The wells in the graphic: pending

Production Jumps 55-Fold; An Old CLR Lansing Well In Banks Oil Field -- July 26, 2019

Production jumps 55-fold, 9,000 bbls over 31 days in 12/18, from 163 bbls over 31 days in 8/18 -- just four months later. The well was originally drilled / fracked back in 2010. This well had a 55-fold jump in production when it was already eight years old. And it will continue to produce for 30 more years.

Another well, a bit further to the west, also showed a jump in production, but it was only a 3-fold jump in production. 

The well:

• 19126, 76 (no typo), CLR, Lansing 1-25H, Banks, t11/10; cum 412K 5/19;

Recent production:

Pool	Date	Days	BBLS Oil	Runs	BBLS Water	MCF Prod	MCF Sold	Vent/Flare
BAKKEN	5-2019	27	2824	2839	2043	8274	7910	0
BAKKEN	4-2019	30	3514	3402	2373	9208	8123	680
BAKKEN	3-2019	31	3782	3814	2642	8415	7667	330
BAKKEN	2-2019	28	3156	3258	2471	6413	6052	0
BAKKEN	1-2019	31	4240	4222	3462	7187	6548	220
BAKKEN	12-2018	31	8995	9124	10298	10671	9156	1105
BAKKEN	11-2018	12	3338	2959	8663	3605	3308	135
BAKKEN	10-2018	10	47	0	346	145	15	7
BAKKEN	9-2018	30	129	265	733	649	152	92
BAKKEN	8-2018	31	163	0	757	675	256	0
BAKKEN	7-2018	31	148	323	602	636	217	0
BAKKEN	6-2018	30	135	0	624	620	210	5
BAKKEN	5-2018	31	154	290	736	196	196	0
BAKKEN	4-2018	28	210	0	1240	80	80	0
BAKKEN	3-2018	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	2-2018	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	1-2018	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	12-2017	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	11-2017	28	1567	1608	1069	4629	4629	0
BAKKEN	10-2017	31	1703	1953	1133	5362	5362	0

The graphic:

Notes From All Over, Part 3 -- July 26, 2019

The day started out as an incredibly slow news day. Turned out to be an incredible news day.

Takeover: I completely missed this one. Link here.

The $2.6 billion Alaska Airlines takeover of Virgin America has started to show up in the SeaTac-based airline's bottom line.

The carrier reported a 36 percent surge in profits on Thursday. Since completing several items of its plan to integrate Virgin, Alaska reported significantly higher profits for its second quarter, generating a $262 million profit compared to $193 million in 2018's second quarter. Alaska reported $2.3 billion in revenue for the quarter, a 6 percent year-over-year increase that was helped by a 16 percent surge in revenue from its air cargo operations.

Tesla: short sellers net $1.5 billion following Tesla's miss. Link here.

Tesla: down again today on an "up" day for the market. The dirty little secret:

• batteries account for 90% of the total cost of an EV
• battery prices are not going down
• at best, technology will "improve" batteries "on the margins" but there won't be any breakthroughs

Disclaimer: this is not an investment site. Do not make any investment, financial, job, career, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here.

**************************************

NDIC Hearing Dockets -- August, 2019

NDIC posts the hearing dockets here.

Dockets are tracked here.

The usual disclaimer applies. As usual this is done very quickly and using shorthand for my benefit. There will be factual and typographical errors on this page. Do not quote me on any of this. It's for my personal use to help me better understand the Bakken. Do not read it. If you do happen to read it, do not make any investment, financial, job, relationship, or travel plans based on anything you read here or think you may have read here. If this stuff is important to you, and I doubt that it is, but if it is, go to the source.

Note: the overlapping units are getting larger and larger; the units are often composed of smaller-than-full sections; it's difficult to abbreviate the description and/or visualize the overlapping unit; expect many typographical errors in the summary below; if this is important to you, go to the source.

In progress. Highlights have been completed. I will come back later and summarize the entire agenda as I usually do .

Mostly "continuation" cases.

Except for a dozen or so cases from Luff requesting flaring waivers for wells in Bowman County, no flaring cases.

New cases were mostly of two categories:

• establishing large overlapping units for the purpose of capturing oil along section lines / in between existing drilling units
• pooling

Again, for newbies, these are cases, not permits.

Wednesday, August 21, 2019

Nine pages 

27749, Oasis, EIghtmile-Bakken; terminate; establish two laydown 1920-acre units, sections 28/29/30; and, 31/32/33 in T153N-R102W; 9 wells in each; Williams County
27750, Oasis, Eightmile, Rosebud and/or Trenton-Bakken; establish three overlapping 3840-acre spacing units; one well on each; Williams, McKenzie
27751, NP Resources, Buckhorn-Bakken and/or Cinnamon Creek-Bakken, establish an overlapping 2560-acre unit; one well; McKenzie
27752, Petro Harvester Operating, commingling
27753, Hess, Tioga-Bakken; five wells on a standup 1280-acre unit; Mountrail
27754, Hess, commingling
27755, Hess, commingling
27756, Hess, comminging
27757, Hess, commingling
27758, Oasis, pooling
27759, Oasis, pooling
27760, Oasis, pooling
27761, Oasis, pooling
27762, BR, commingling
27763, Luff Exploration, flaring;
27764, Luff Exploration, flaring;
27765, Luff Exploration, flaring;
27766, Luff Exploration, flaring;
27767, Luff Exploration, flaring
27768, Luff Exploration, flaring
27769, Luff Exploration, flaring
27770, Luff Exploration, flaring
27771, Luff Exploration, flaring
27772, Luff Exploration, flaring
27773, Luff Exploration, flaring
27774, Luff Exploration, flaring
27775, Luff Exploration, flaring
27776, NP Resources, Flat Top Butte-Bakken; four wells on an existing 1280-acre unit; McKenzie
27777, PetroShale, commingling

Thursday, August 22, 2019

Twelve pages

27778, XTO, Alkali-Creek, establish two overlapping 2560-acre units; one well on each; Mountrail County
27779, XTO, Siverston-Bakken, establish an overlapping 1920-acre unit; four wells; McKenzie
27780, CLR, Crazy Man Creek-Bakken; establish an overlapping 2560-acre unit; one well, Williams County
27781, CLR, East Fork-Bakken, establish two overlapping 2560-acre units; one well in each, Williams
27782, CLR, Beaver Lodge-Bakken, establish an overlapping 2560-acre unit; one well; Williams
27783, CLR, amend, Cedar Coulee-Bakken, establish an overlapping 2560-acre unit; two wells; Dunn County
27784, Crescent Point Energy, amend Dollar Joe-Bakken; establish two overlapping 1280-acre units; one well on each; Williams County
27785, Liberty Resources Management CO, LLC, Leaf Mountain-Bakken, amend, establish four 1920-acre units; eight wells on each, a total of 32 wells; Burke County
27786, Liberty Resources, Black Slough-Bakken, establish two 1920-acre units; eight wells on each, a total of 16 wells; Burke County
27787, Newfield, North Tobacco Garden-Bakken, establish an overlapping 2560-acre unit, one well; McKenzie
27788, WPX, Mandaree-Bakken; establish an overlapping 1280-acre unit, one well; McKenzie County
27789, WPX, Heart Butte-Bakken; i) establish two 1280-acre units; 8 wells on each; ii) establish an overlapping 2560-acre unit, one well; sections 17/18 and section 19/20 in T147N-R92W, Dunn County;
27790, WPX, Eagle Nest-Bakken; establish two overlapping 2560-acre units; one well on each, Dunn
27791, Hunt Oil Co, risk penalty legalese
27792, CLR, pooling
27793, CLR, pooling
27794, CLR, pooling
27795, CLR, pooling
27796, CLR, Epping-Bakken, two wells in an existing 2560-acre unit; Williams
27797, CLR, commingling
27798, CLR, SWD in Dollar Joe Field, Williams
27799, EOG, pooling
27800, EOG, tank vapors
27801, Liberty Resources, pooling
27802, Liberty Resources, pooling
27803, Liberty Resources, pooling
27804, Liberty Resources, pooling
27805, Liberty Resources, pooling
27806, Liberty Resources, pooling
27807, Newfield, pooling
27808, Newfield, pooling
27809, Newfield, Siverston-Bakken; 14 wells on each of two existing 1280-acre units; 6/7-150-98; and, 30/31-151-98, McKenzie; already 6 wells on each of these units; this will make it 20 wells in each of these 1280-acre units;
27810, WPX, pooling
27811, WPX, pooling
27812, WPX, pooling
27813, WPX, pooling
27814, WPX, pooling
27815, WPX, pooling
27816, WPX, pooling
27817, WPX, Mandaree-Bakken; eight wells on an existing 1280-acre unit;McKenzie County
27818, RimRock Oil & Gas, Mandaree-Bakken; 13 wells on an existing 1280-acre; 12/13-149-93; Dunn County
27819, RimRock, South Fork-Bakken; 13 wells on an existing 1280-acre unit; sections 8/17-148-93; Dunn County
27820, KODA, Fertile Valley-Bakken; pooling
27821, KODA, Fertile Valley-Bakken; pooling
27822, SWD
27823, SWD
27824, SWD
27825, SWD
27826, SWD

Notes From All Over, Part 2 -- July 26, 2019

Updates

Later, 5:26 p.m. CT: NASDAQ sets a new all-time closing high: 8,325.86

Later, 5:26 p.m. CT: S&P 500 sets a new all-time closing high: 3,330.21.

Original Post

Apple card: well, this ought to scare Amazon. Link here. No credit card number on the credit card.

Sprint - T-Mobile: DOJ approves the merger. Dish Network will acquire some Sprint assets to get deal approved.

BAC: Warren Buffett adds to his holdings.

BA: Southwest curtails service to Newark, NJ; not enough 737's in their fleet. 

Starbucks: based on my observations at Starbucks, if I were a gambler, I would bet my entire portfolio that "delivery" will be a goldmine for Starbucks. Link here. I don't bet. Almost no one actually sticks around drinking coffee at Starbucks any more. #1 revenue stream: drive-through #2 revenue stream: mobile ordering but walking in to store to pick up coffee. People will tire of both; will go with delivery. Office workers will order en-route and when they arrive at their desk, their coffee will already be sitting there. This is a no-brainer.

S&P 500 watch: one point away from another intra-day all-time record.

Disclaimer: this is not an investment site. Do not make any investment, financial, job, career, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or what you think you might have read here in the last twelve years of blogging.

Wow, wow, wow -- from yesterday:
S&P 500: up 0.5% to an all-time closing high of 3,019.56; intra-day, another all-time record, at 3.019.56. At 10:19 a.m. CT, July 26, 2019 -- 3,019.55 --

One hundredth of a point from a new all-time intra-day high.

BR's Mathistad Wells Have Been Updated -- July 26, 2019

BR's incredible Mathistad wells in Croff oil field have been updated. As one example:

• 33152, 414, BR, Mathistad 6-8-35 MBH, Croff, 29 stages; 10 million lbs large, t11/17; cum 487K 5/19;

Pool	Date	Days	BBLS Oil	Runs	BBLS Water	MCF Prod	MCF Sold	Vent/Flare
BAKKEN	5-2019	31	25827	25743	8656	50967	35886	14942
BAKKEN	4-2019	30	30343	30335	6983	58345	27789	30418
BAKKEN	3-2019	31	19286	19327	5706	35198	22717	12457
BAKKEN	2-2019	28	16437	16403	6659	18905	18826	0
BAKKEN	1-2019	31	25493	25502	6584	25070	25030	0
BAKKEN	12-2018	22	21525	21531	6361	20102	19981	0
BAKKEN	11-2018	30	27576	27597	7295	26738	26728	0
BAKKEN	10-2018	31	28064	28226	8108	30142	30131	0
BAKKEN	9-2018	30	28244	28051	8487	33798	33786	0
BAKKEN	8-2018	31	30329	30460	9431	43508	43029	467
BAKKEN	7-2018	31	30040	29900	10813	41403	40883	510
BAKKEN	6-2018	30	28216	28256	9035	42867	42856	0
BAKKEN	5-2018	31	25264	25310	5567	36521	36510	0
BAKKEN	4-2018	30	31938	31844	11458	50885	50872	0
BAKKEN	3-2018	31	20587	20563	7980	33552	33542	0
BAKKEN	2-2018	27	29133	29168	9792	34952	34942	0
BAKKEN	1-2018	26	33139	33172	9074	39317	39305	0
BAKKEN	12-2017	25	22804	22763	7035	31347	31338	0
BAKKEN	11-2017	20	13096	12945	3421	13623	12656	958

Two wells to the west, one running north (Mathistad) and one running south (Croff), #16983 and #17297, respectively showed nice halo effects when the newer Croff / Mathistad wells fracked. Distance apart: 0.19 miles = 1,003 feet.

Wells of interest tracked here.

Notes From All Over, Part 1 -- July 26, 2019 -- GDP Growth Beats Expectations; US Personal Consumption Surged

Misleading headline, Yahoo!Finance: the headline is accurate in that GDP has slowed from previous quarter but that was not news; everyone knew that. The news was that 2Q19 GDP beat expectations. Another misleading headline:

Lede: "US economy grew more-than-expected in the second quarter." Whoo-hoo . Maybe the Fed doesn't need to cut rates. "The market" also noted this: futures went down as soon as the GDP number was released.

• GDP, 2Q19:
• 1Q19: 3.1%
• forecast for 2Q19: 1.8%
• actual: 2.1%
• Personal consumption:
• 1Q19: 0.9%
• forecast: 4.0%
• actual: 4.3$

Someone noted: eight Fed rate hikes in eight quarters during the Trump administration. How many during the eight years of the Obama administration?

Mnuchin (US SecTreausry): Amazon destroyed US retail. US personal consumption surged in 2Q19. Okay.  

Perhaps better said: Amazon destroyed inefficient, non-user-friendly retailers. 

Disclaimer: this is not an investment site. Do not make any investment, financial, job, career, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here.

Futures: have now recovered (7:56 a.m. CT).
all three major indices up nicely

Futures suggest we could open near record highs for the S&P 500.

From MarketWatch July 24 -- two days ago (link here):

• major indices
• Dow Jones: off 0.3%
• S&P 500: up 0.5% to an all-time closing high of 3,019.56; intra-day, another all-time record, at 3.019.56
• NASDAQ Composite: up 0.9% to an all-time closing high of 8,321.50; intra-day also set an all-time record of 8,321.50
• Year-to-date:
• S&P 500: up 20%
• NASDAQ: up 25% 

Correction:

That earlier report a couple of days ago that gasoline / diesel had narrowed must have been an outlier.

Gasoline is about $2.48 here; diesel if $2.69 at same station.

US Farm Update -- Corn, Soy One Month Behind -- Let's Hope For A Longer Summer Than Usual -- July 26, 2019

US farm report: setup is like 1315. Link here at nextgrandminimum.  

This is a must-read. It's a guest commentary by David Archibald at wattsupwiththat, that appears on nextgrandminimu.


Before we get to the linked article, from April 21, 2019:

NASA now predicting: A deep solar minimum is set to bring a prolonged period of colder temperatures across the globe, -- Monday, April 15, 2019.

In 2019, the Sun has been without sunspots for 59 percent of days - a sign that the solar minimum has arrived. The Sun follows cycles of roughly 11 years where it reaches a solar maximum and then a solar minimum. During a solar maximum, the Sun gives off more heat and is littered with sunspots. Less heat in a solar minimum is due to a decrease in magnetic waves.

As noted, this has been predicted for quite some time; apparently the deep solar minimum "has arrived."

Now, back to the linked article, the guest commentary by David Archibald.

• Corn, soybean status in Indiana:
• one month behind where it was in 2018
• maturity will be one month later at best, assuming that the rest of the summer isn't abnormally cold
• US forecast:
• US corn crop will be down 30% year-over-year
• should push the price of corn to about $9.00 / bushel at harvest
• early frost could make this much worse
• the Corn Belt did warm slightly over the last 100 years due to high solar activity of the second half of the 20th century
• this year, much different
• yield and quality of corn could be as much as 50% or less of the 2018 level

The commentary:

The US will be able to feed itself but at much higher prices. Currently some 40% of the corn crop goes to ethanol production and this could be redirected to animal feed without too much trouble. But protein production would still be well down. Each 56 lb bushel of corn used in ethanol production results in 18 lbs of dried distillers grains (DDG) containing the protein. This is used as a feed supplement to pigs, chickens and cattle. Both pigs and chickens have a 25% conversion efficiency of vegetable protein to animal protein. The global warmers want us to adopt vegetarianism in order to save the planet. The public is going to get a taste of that future coming up soon. However animal fat is essential for infant neurological development and brain function so we can’t go completely vegetarian.

What is happening in the Corn Belt is a mini version of the transition from the Medieval Warm Period to the Little Ice Age. The population of Europe exploded in benign conditions of the Medieval Warm Period from 1000 AD to 1300 AD, reaching population levels that weren’t matched again until the 19^th century. In fact parts of rural France have less population today than at the beginning of the 14^th century.

Let's hope for a longer summer than usual. Actually, it's been pointed out that a longer summer won't help much. Total planting was way down due to spring flooding. A longer summer simply means things won't get worse than currently forecast.

The big concern is an earlier frost than usual

1315 all over again. Again, from the linked commentary:

The breakover from the Medieval Warm Period to the Little Ice Age in Europe had sustained periods of bad weather characterised by severe winters and rainy and cold summers. The Great Famine of 1315 – 1317 started with bad weather in the spring of 1315. Crop failures lasted through 1316 until the summer of 1317.

The Modern Warm Period ended in 2006. Current solar activity is back to levels of the Little Ice Age.

A large and increasing number of nations are feeding their population growth with imported grain. That is going to be become more expensive to continue, with or without an early frost in the Corn Belt.

********************************

The American Lexicon

Not ready for prime time.

In a reply to a reader who commented on the Mueller witch hunt:

As time goes by, Mueller's stellar reputation will be completely gone.

I'm waiting for "Mueller" to become part of the American lexicon, just as bork and quisling have become.

Definition of BORK: to attack or defeat (a nominee or candidate for public office) unfairly through an organized campaign of harsh public criticism or vilification

My hunch is that in the future, naming "respected government bureaucrats" to prestigious-sounding committees will be referred to as "Mueller appointments."

"It's Mueller time" will come to have an entirely new meaning.

A Mueller appointment: a figurehead appointment, generally one held by a doddering old fool who is unaware that he/she is being set up for failure to push a political agenda.

No Wells Coming Off Confidential List Until Next Tuesday -- July 26, 2019

US farm report: setup is like 1315. Link here at nextgrandminimum. 

For one company, rigs matter: CEO of America's biggest owner of drilling rigs called the "bottom" too early. We haven't see full effect of drop in number of active rigs yet. Link here. Most concerning: loss of a lot of jobs.


No new wells coming off confidential list today, and none until Tuesday next week.

Active rigs:

$56.47	7/26/2019	07/26/2018	07/26/2017	07/26/2016	07/26/2015
Active Rigs	58	63	60	33	73

RBN Energy: a lot of new LPG export dock capacity is on the way.

By the third quarter of next year, the Enterprise Hydrocarbons Terminal (EHT) on the Houston Ship Channel will have the capacity to export nearly 1.1 MMb/d of LPG — 435 Mb/d more than it can today. Also, Targa Resources and Energy Transfer are each planning 200-Mb/d expansions at their LPG export docks along the Texas Coast, and Phillips 66 and MPLX may very well be announcing projects of their own soon. All this suggests that there will be ample dock space available to propane and butane shippers if, as we expect, LPG volumes continue to ramp up in the 2020s. And, with Enterprise Products Partners’ promise to offer super-competitive rates at EHT, shippers are likely to enjoy low send-out costs. Today, we discuss recent developments on the propane/butane marine-terminal front and what they mean for LPG shippers and exports.

Thanks to the Shale Revolution and the burgeoning production of NGLs, the U.S. flipped from being a net LPG importer to a net exporter back in 2012. Since then, waterborne LPG exports have soared, to more than 1.4 MMb/d in both May and June and an average of 1.25 MMb/d in the first six-and-a-half months of 2019.

• The big four:
• Enterprise: 545,000 b/d
• Targa: 230,000 b/d
• Phillips 66: 200,000 b/d
• Energy Transfer: 200,000 b/d
• total: 1.175 million
• some slight under-reporting
• the big four can actually hand up to about 1.3 million b/d
• by 3Q20
• Enterprise will have finished its recently announced 260,000-b/d expansion
• EHT's total capacity: almost 1.1 million b/d
• Targa will have doubled it capacity at Galena Park
• ETP will also double Nederland capacity
• altogether, these three expansion projects will boost Texas Coast's LPG export capacity to more than 2.1 million b/d, with Enterprise accounting for just over hald

Much more at the link.