My Favorite Chart -- The Goldilocks Economy -- September 13, 2023

Locator: 45643ECON.

Link at twitter.

UAW Strikes Set To Begin Tomorrow Night — Thursday, September 14, 2023 — Posted Wednesday, September 13, 2023

Locator: 45642USAF.

I have no idea why the SR-71 ("Blackbird") is trending over at twitter right now, but one of many posts:

 Here's the SR-71 and U-2:

I performed pre-flight physicals on the crew members as a flight surgeon assigned to RAF Mildenhall, England, in the 1980s. My assigned a/c in England was the F-111. In Germany, it was the F-15. 

Maybe more later.

Ramblings -- Apple iPhone 15 -- The Fourth Industrial Revolution -- September 13, 2023

Locator: 45641AAPL.
Locator: 45641TECH.

Updates

Later, 11:18 p.m. CT: the magnificent seven, link here:

Later, 11:12 p.m. CT: just after posting the "original post" below -- I came across this over at twitter:

Original Post

Global geo-politics: Peter Zeihan.

The fourth industrial revolution: Dan Ives. Tracked here.

The Apple iPhone 15 is going to fly off the shelves. Period. Dot.

None of the iPhones have increased in price, except one -- the most high end, "the titanium one," from $1,099, to $1,199, and those, too, will sell out. 

Folks are going to go to their local Apple store -- bricks and mortar or on line -- looking to buy the most they can afford -- and rationalizing they can afford "the titanium one."

The high-end phone: the iPhone 15 Pro Max, $50 / month for two years.  Whether one pays the full price at the time of purchase or $50 / month, the price is the same. Folks spend that much -- actually much more -- on Starbucks each month.

Seriously, last year's model, the iPhone 14, for $29 / month or the brand new least expensive iPhone 15 for $34 / month -- or "the titanium one" for $50 / month -- mom and dad are going to pass their "14's" down to the kids and buy "the titanium one." If you don't believe me, watch the ad below.

I think the jokes about "the notch" are finally over -- Apple went from how do we get rid of "the notch" to how can we take advantage of "the notch."

Quite awhile ago, October 6, 2022, "everything. you need to know about the "Dynamic Island," or "the notch." Links everywhere, here's one over at The Verge. 

Four minutes of magic:

Apple is taking the smart phone in a very, very different direction.

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Chips

Link here.

Trials And Tribulations -- Sepember 13, 2023

Locator: 45640EVS.

Ms Stern is the "tech" writer for TWSJ. She recently bought a brand new EV Chevy Bolt. Now, she reports on renting an EV.

Link here.

My hunch: Joanna Stern won't put in writing her answer to this question -- 

Two New Permits; Two Permits Renewed; Four DUCs Reported As Completed -- September 13, 2023

Locator: 45639B.

 Cushing: link here.

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Back to the Bakken

Active rigs: 33.

WTI: $88.76.

Two new permits, #40201 - #40202, inclusive;

• Operators: MRO, KODA Resources
• Fields: Killdeer (Dunn County); Fertile Valley (Divide County)
• Comments:
• KODA Resources has a permit for an Amber well, SWSW 13-160-103, 
• to be sited 305 FSL and 461 FWL;
• MRO has a permit for one Nicole well, SESW 31-146-94, 
• to be sited 787 FSL and 2112 FWL

Two permits renewed:

• XTO: two Ernest Federal permits in Haystack Butte, Dunn County;

Four producing wells (DUCs) reported completed:

• 30923, no ip, BR, Curtis 44-9 TFH,
• 38868, 384, Lime Rock Resources, Twist 4-4-9H-143-95;
• 38869, 675, Lime Rock Resources, Neal 4-33-28H-144-95;
• 39471, 386, Lime Rock Resources, Federal Kubik Trust 3-18-19H-143-95L;

ARM Pricing -- Will Start Trading Tomorrow Morning -- September 14, 2023

Locator: 45638TECH.

Details:

• priced at $52 / share -- $1 / share larger than expected;
• set to raise at least $5 billion
• market value: $55.5 billion which makes it the largest IPO in several years
• reminder: the BRK / BNSF purchase was valued at about $45 billion -- many years ago
• links everywhere; this one at TWSJ.

Arm is preparing to price its shares at $52 apiece, as the British chip designer lays the groundwork for the biggest U.S. public offering of the year. 

The price will be set in a meeting Wednesday, September 14, 2023, afternoon between underwriters and company executives, according to people familiar with the matter. 

The situation remains fluid and the price could still shift. At a per-share price of $52, Arm would be valued at $55.5 billion on a fully diluted basis. That is below the $64 billion Arm owner SoftBank Group recently valued the company at when it bought out a stake held by its Vision Fund. 

SoftBank, the only seller in the offering, is set to raise at least $5 billion. 

The Japanese technology investor had planned to sell shares at a price between $47 and $51 apiece but demand during the so-called roadshow to market the stock encouraged it to reach just above that range. In a sign of the importance of the deal to SoftBank, its chief executive, Masayoshi Son, was expected to attend Wednesday’s, September 14, 2023, pricing meeting virtually.

ARM is focused on CPUs, not GPUs.

Thread-Enabled Apple iPhone 15 -- September 13, 2023

Locator: 45637AAPL.

Apple:

• new to me: Thread-enabled. Links to follow.
• first question: are Samsung phones Thread-enabled? No. But, this could change overnight.
• second question: has MacRumors overlooked Thread-enabling? A quick search suggests MacRumors has not yet covered this subject as a stand-alone topic. Feel free to fact-check me on this. Link: https://www.macrumors.com/2/.

EIA Weekly Petroleum Report -- September 13, 2023

Locator: 45636B.

 EIA weekly petroleum report, link here:

• US crude oil in storage increased by 4.0 million bbls; at 420.6 million bbls in storage, US crude oil 2% below the five-year average;
• imports: up 13% more than the same four-week period last year
• refiners: at 93.7% operating capacity
• distillate fuel inventories increased by 3.9 million bbls but still 13% below the five-year average;
• finished gasoline inventories also increased
• jet fuel supplied was up 9% compared with same four-week period last year.

Gasoline demand, link here:

Crude oil, US, commercial inventory measured in days, link here: 25.2 days. Up from a recent record low of 25.0 days last week.

Mitt Romney Says He Won’t Run For Re-Election — September 13, 2023

Locator: 45635B.

Other news: 

• escaped Pennsylvania convict captured. Most news outlets failing to adequately “explain” BORTAC. Wiki. Let's start with ... headquartered in Texas. Where you want to be when absolutely focused on "immigration" crime.
  
• Apple: business thoughts after iPhone 15 launch; 
• Airdrop! Connecting friends!
  
• AAPL getting at least two new BUY recommendations;
• Target: $220+; trading today at $178
• tech expert weighs in on two giant innovations announced by Apple yesterday.

Links to follow.

EIA Weekly Petroleum Report: link and additional data pending

• huge increase in commercial supply;
• gasoline demand slumps.
• gasoline in storage at 5-year lows, but doesn’t matter

Amending the adjustment: https://twitter.com/Rory_Johnston/status/1702022520474395043. 

Confusing: https://www.eia.gov/petroleum/weekly/archive/2023/230913/includes/analysis_print.php.

• I think f5 enter is wrong: https://twitter.com/staunovo/status/1702008737001591010.
• but I could be wrong; regardless, EIA seems not to have explained it well.

Hurricane Lee: will disrupt NFL football games scheduled to play in Nova Scotia (Canada) this Saturday. Otherwise, minimal economic impact, though the Weather Channel will generate a lot of commercial (ad) content.

Apple:

• Jeff Williams, COO, succession plan
• new to me: Thread-enabled. Links to follow.
• first question: are Samsung phones Thread-enabled? No. But, this could change overnight.
• second question: has MacRumors overlooked Thread-enabling? A quick search suggests MacRumors has not yet covered this subject as a stand-alone topic. Feel free to fact-check me on this. Link: https://www.macrumors.com/2/.

Might This Kick-Start The US Market? September 13, 2023

Locator: 45634INV.

Link here.

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Word of the Day 

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Phrase of the Day 

The phrase: peine forte et dure.

Link here. 

• peine: pain, torture, punishment
• (that is)
• forte: harsh,
• et:  and
• dure: long

Graphic: 

Apple iPhone, Apple Watch -- September, 2023

Locator: 45633AAPL.

Apple Silicon: I may have misheard but I believe Tim Cook says that with the new iPhone and Apple Watch announced yesterday, that completes Apple's full move to Apple Silicon. I may have mishearad. If he said that, he was referring to the CPUs. Apparently Apple will still rely on Qualcomm for 5G modems. Again, I may have this wrong. Feel free to fact-check me.

Tim Cook: "Mention "AI" And Get Fired"

Link here.

Very, very slowly, and very, very deliberately, Apple is building an AI-device that will lap the competition to the point that the moat will be incredibly wide.

Peter Zeihan noted that in his note today. China will fall further and further behind, leaving Samsung and Apple as the only two choices. 

Brilliant: Apple's "finger-gesture" controls and emphasis on the iPhone as a medical device. 

Answering the phone on your wrist while holding groceries or a cup of coffee: brilliant. Link here.

Moving so fast:

************************
The Market: Tech

The "Magnificent Seven": Jim Cramer, link to a Money article dated June 16, 2023:

• Amazon
• Alphabet (2)
• Apple
• Meta
• Microsoft
• Nvidia
• Tesla

All are having an incredible day today, except perhaps AAPL though "deep red" early in the day is now almost back to "even."

Each of the "Magnificant Seven" (other than AAPL) are up nicely.  That suggests all of tech is doing well. There is one notable exception: INTC down about half-a-percent after a pretty good run over the past two weeks, at least compared to the other tech stocks above (again, not including AAPL).

This suggests that Intel (INTC) is somehow different. 

I could be wrong, but among the seven above, there are no foundries, and only three design chips (Nvidia, Apple, and Tesla -- and the latter is very, very specific to automobiles). Four are big names in cloud computing.

Apple seems to be in a world of its own.

 ************************
The Market: Oil

$89: on a day WTI is flirting with $89, the "oils" are actually under-performing, some actually in negative territory, such as Chord Enerby.

***********************
The China Thing

Link here.

Let's say, just for argument, that the Chinese government really did ban Apple's iPhones for government workers. 

Now, let's say, just for argument, the Chinese government reverses itself, and says the government is not banning iPhones for government workers.

Can anyone connect the dots? This is not rocket science.

The Fed: Higher For Longer But No Rate Increase -- Tea Leaves -- September 13, 2023

Locator: 45632ECON.

Today's CPI report:

The market must have liked the report. Although not by much, all indices turned green after the report.

Subsequently, but still pre-market, all indices (except oil) turned red.

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The Book Club

The Gettysburg Cyclorama. Link here.

Lewis Armistead. Wiki.

This is why it gets a bit confusing (oval):

Quarterly Lease Sales -- August 2023

Locator: 10001Lease8/23.

Note: this was done quickly; not proofread and not double-checked; there will be content and typographical errors. If this is important to you, go to the source.

North Dakota Trust Lands -- front page; start here.

Link here.

Billings County

• ten units
• mostly 160-acre units
• bonuses: $2 / acre
• bidders: Missouri River Royalty Corp

Burke County

• six units
• mostly 160-acre units
• bonus: $256 to $1,112 (the latter for a 40-acre unit)
• bidders: various, including Phoenix, Norra, Missouri River

Divide County

• twenty units
• split between 80-acre and 160-acre units
• bonus: around $21
• bidders: almost all Missouri River Royalty

Dunn County

• two units
• both were 80-acre units
• bonus: $902 and $1,202
• bidder: both Phoenix Capital Group Holdings

McKenzie County

• twenty units
• all 160-acre units
• bonus: all less than $30; about half less than $5
• bidder: all Missouri River Royalty

Mountrail County

• two units
• both 17-acre units
• bonus: $1,928 and $1,970
• bidder: both Phoenix Capital Group Holdings

Stark County

• ten units
• almost all 80-acre units
• bonus: all less than $35

Williams County

• eight units
• 20-acre, 40-acre, 60-acre, and 80-acre units
• bonus: around $125
• bidder: Okreek Oil & Gas (6); Missouri River Royalty and Anderson Oil Ltd

China To Tim Cook: We Still Really Like You -- September 13, 2023

Locator: 45631AAPL.

Link here.

Let's say, just for argument, that the Chinese government really did ban Apple's iPhones for government workers. 

Now, let's say, just for argument, the Chinese government reverses itself, and says the government is not banning iPhones for government workers.

Can anyone connect the dots? This is not rocket science.

*****************************
Tim Cook: "Mention "AI" And Get Fired"

 Link here.

Very, very slowly, and very, very deliberately, Apple is building an AI-device that will lap the competition to the point that the moat will be incredibly wide.

Peter Zeihan noted that in his note today. China will fall further and further behind, leaving Samsung and Apple as the only two choices. 

Brilliant: Apple's "finger-gesture" controls and emphasis on the iPhone as a medical device. 

Answering the phone on your wrist while holding groceries or a cup of coffee: brilliant. Link here.

**********************
Nvidia 

***************
The Book Club

Ancient Sea Reptiles, Darren Naish, c. 2023. Link here.
Pterosaurs: Natural History, Evolution, Anatomy, Mark Witton, c. 2013. Link here.

Ouch! Almost $8 Billion In Interest Alone -- September 13, 2023

Locator: 45630DEADCOW.

Argentina is tracked here. The Vaca Muerta is tracked here.

Link here.

F-150 Update -- Stealth Launch -- September 13, 2023

Locator: 45629EVS.

EV sales growth slows: link here. 

Hybrids: fake EVs. Link here.

The all-electric F-150 Lightning pickup truck gets a lot of attention, but make no mistake the traditional truck is still Ford’s more important vehicle.

Ford Motor launched the newly redesigned 2024 F-150s on Tuesday evening, September 12, 2023. The launch is intended to extend Ford’s lead in the key truck segment of the U.S. automotive market.

The importance of the F-150 to Ford can’t be understated. It’s been the best-selling vehicle in the U.S. for some 40-plus years and the best-selling truck for almost 50. Through the end of August, Ford has sold 514,716 F-150s in America, up 22% year over year and accounting for about 38% of Ford’s U.S. total sales.

Buried:

The all-electric F-150 Lightning was launched with a lot of fanfare in 2022, but sales are stuck at roughly 2% of total F-150 units. Manufacturing problems have hurt Ford’s ability to deliver more.

And more:

Lightnings aren’t the only F-150s with batteries, however. About 10% of F-150 sales in 2023 are hybrids. “We’re looking to double our mix of hybrid sales … to at least 20% next year,” says Andrew Frick, vice president of Ford’s traditional car unit, Ford Blue.

Ford is cutting the price of 2024 hybrid models by some $2,000 to help make that happen.

Three Wells Coming Off Confidential List Today -- September 13, 2023

Locator: 45628B.

WTI: $89.45.

Thursday, September 14, 2023: 86 for the month; 288 for the quarter, 533 for the year
39066, conf, Hess, TI-Hanson-158-94-0706H-2,
39029, conf, Liberty Resources, Overdorf 158-96-1-12-4MBH,
28829, conf, Petro-Hunt, Arsenal Federal 149-102-17A-20-3H,

Wednesday, September 13, 2023: 83 for the month; 285 for the quarter, 530 for the year
39641, conf, CLR, Gordon Federal 24-8HSL1,
39624, conf, Creescent Point, CPEUSC Ruby 4 20-17-158N-100W-MBH,
36574, conf, Hess, EN-Kiesel-155-94-1918H-5, 

RBN Energy: Permian Basin production growth drives NGL pipeline buildout.

The Permian is in the midst of an NGL infrastructure boom as midstream companies are investing to keep up with the strong production growth projected over the next several years — but until these new projects are up and running, NGL pipeline capacity to the Gulf Coast is only going to get tighter. In today’s RBN blog, we look at five pipeline projects that are under construction or in the planning process that would significantly boost NGL takeaway capacity out of the Permian.