Monday, December 31, 2018

A Huge Shout-Out To All Those Out In The Oil Patch Tonight -- December 31, 2018

Especially to those away from their families. You are making a huge difference.
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EOG Reports A Huge Clarks Creek Well; 244K Bbls Oil In Five Months; 112K BOE In One Month -- December 31, 2018

Monday, December 31, 2018:
  • None (there was no June 31, 2018)
Sunday, December 30, 2018:
  • 33014, SI/NC, Hess, EN-Thompson Trust-154-94-1930H-7, Alkali Creek, no production data, 
  • 32274, drl, Slawson, Submariner Federal 2 SLH, Big Bend, no production data, 
Saturday, December 29, 2018:
  • 34488, SI/NC XTO, Nelson Federal 21X-5C, Antelope, no production data, 
  • 34448, 1,380, EOG, Clarks Creek 108-0706H, Three Forks, 54 stages, 14 million bls, Clarks Creek, t6/18; cum 128K 10/18;
  • 32843, SI/NC, BR, Remington 4B MBH, Blue Butte, some production;
  • 32800, 2,615, EOG, Clarks Creek 155-0706H, Three Forks, 55 stages, 13.6 million lbs, Clarks Creek, t6/18; cum 244K 10/18;in 7/18; 89,098 + 23,321 boe = 112,419 boe in one month;
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN11-201830172581733315094647474619516538
BAKKEN10-2018312751327417206708958087340394
BAKKEN9-20182836949376822409681905788171651
BAKKEN8-20183166588668473951812481711165311841
BAKKEN7-20183189098881226253513992810706932702
BAKKEN6-20182624560266536822882031

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Mariner East 2 Pipeline On Line -- December 31, 2018

Flashback, earlier this year,


Overnight, this update: From AP:


The parallel pipeline Mariner East 2X is expected to be in service in late 2019.
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Sunday, December 30, 2018

The Incredible Bakken Wells-- December 30, 2018

For newbies, the incredible wells of the Bakken. Another example. This page won't be updated. The well:
  • 33117, 1,962, CLR, Bailey 8-24H, Pershing, 66 stages; 16.1 million lbs, t6/18; cum 185K 10/18 --
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN10-20183128389283642249566361603245711
BAKKEN9-20182129603296262094865435596625483
BAKKEN8-20183142230422892932389545834905680
BAKKEN7-20183146201462263721895153894725362
BAKKEN6-20182236487362532974262591588483292

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Miscellaneous

From The Dickinson Press:


**********************************
Notes to the Granddaughters

I continue to read books on Los Alamos. The takeaway message for the granddaughters: live life to the fullest; work and play 24/7; don't look back; motto: no regrets.

Diamonds and Rust, Joan Baez
Released, July, 1975
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Maria Energy Has Reached Its Destination; Sophia's Second Day On The Slopes -- December 30, 2018

Mission complete: Maria Energy has reached its destination, GR REV. See the original post here.


**********************************
Notes to the Granddaughters

I'm not sure if this will make sense to everyone but the graphic below is of the ski runs Sophia, age four, accomplished on her second day of skiing. This was the second of two days of ski lessons. On the third day, she went skiing with the family and completed a "green" run completely on her own, and half of a "blue" run until she had to be "rescued" by her dad for the last half.

The ski school at Angel Fire puts a the very same tracking device on each of the pre-schoolers that scientists use to track penguins in the Antarctic.

Here is the summary of Sophia's second day of ski runs:


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How About 100,000 Bbls Crude Oil In One Month; Or Almost 120K BOE In One Month? -- December 30, 2018

This page will not be updated.

For newbies: look at these incredible IPs.

100K x $40/bbl at the wellhead = $4 million. The wells cost somewhere between $6 million and $8 million these days. 

The wells:
  • 33412, 6,509, MRO, Winona USA 21-2TFH-2B, Antelope, Sanish pool, API - 33-053-07955; 7.4 million gallons; 85% water; 45 stages; 10 million lbs; t4/18; cum 325K 10/18;
  • 33413, 8,475, MRO, Chauncey USA 31-2H, Antelope, Sanish pool, API - 33-053-07956; no production data as of 2/18; 11.5 million gallons; 91% water;
  • 33414, 5,524, MRO, Wilbur USA 31-2TFH, Antelope, Sanish pool, API - 33-053-07957; 8.5 million gallons; 85% water;
  • 33415, 7,572, MRO, June USA 31-2H, Antelope, Sanish pool, API - 33-053-07958; 9.4 million gallons; 84% water, t3/18; cum --
  • 33416, 4,892, MRO, Miles USA 41-2TFH-2B, Antelope, Sanish pool, API - 33-053-07959; 8.1 million gallons; 85% water; 45 stages; 11.6 million lbs;t4/18; cum 335K 10/18; 
Look at the jump in production of an old, neighboring well:
  • 18471, 380, MRO, Hunts Along USA 12-1H, Antelope-Sanish, t1/11; cum 196K 10/18; 
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
SANISH10-20181935653578247262295488514
SANISH9-201830674367524081962971862033
SANISH8-2018318497857060331297174135042
SANISH7-2018311685316732910822265915712106
SANISH6-201811522022021013558
SANISH5-2018957295831250355635774336
SANISH4-2018101162711845114918321015788
SANISH3-20186371933470300002180
SANISH2-20180000000
SANISH1-20180000000
SANISH12-20170000000
SANISH11-20170000000
SANISH10-20170000000
SANISH9-20170000000
SANISH8-20170000000
SANISH7-20170000000
SANISH6-20170000000
SANISH5-20178178357382830236
SANISH4-201730986136980138101092
SANISH3-2017311042947115144801147
SANISH2-2017289621201105133601065
SANISH1-20173111121261110154001235
SANISH12-201627941312981220191768

33416:
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
SANISH10-2018311580115791715833542237327651
SANISH9-20183018595186369185394012053616657
SANISH8-201831213562139610202405541547823713
SANISH7-201831268122687112126389111182425442
SANISH6-20183041009411401949857893931845596
SANISH5-201829408314102818216437072290018292
SANISH4-20182561077604772658803242929544297
SANISH3-20183340330072213623

33415:
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
SANISH10-2018241596915992532230106213436725
SANISH9-20183023102231959898519392709322011
SANISH8-201831312453132610596533792026631148
SANISH7-201831417874183911741625791871841294
SANISH6-201829581585840319449827311331165187
SANISH5-201827638106364121593744344337927035
SANISH4-20181548130491641267530371156829434
SANISH3-2018175083749318067443128360547

33414:
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
SANISH10-2018311582715813611933642237407741
SANISH9-20183018202182848268411312144317449
SANISH8-201831256752574812887442701678925865
SANISH7-201831351263516315001451191347429520
SANISH6-201830479034811818604708621138255961
SANISH5-201829538845401720477665643564927532
SANISH4-2018236793167853138351045303170065348
SANISH3-20185107031038302086139018255

33413: 66,440 bbls over 20 days extrapolates to 99,660 bbls over 30 days --
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
SANISH10-2018311755217529528538175268898859
SANISH9-20183019260193296552448942343619046
SANISH8-20183125174252468511495421885029078
SANISH7-201831343143440514575541301624235768
SANISH6-201830547995502320364897641452271100
SANISH5-201830593955925017477715773967628168
SANISH4-20181446057475781426526409140767310
SANISH3-2018206644064455077022178067976

33412:73,742 bbls over 23 days extrapolates to 96,185 bbls over 30 days -- add in 110,353 MCF/23 days =  22,000 boe and then we get almost 120K boe over 30 days --
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
SANISH10-201831237902378216121467643289710770
SANISH9-201830289072898213617556302889523478
SANISH8-201831345453460816623555682105832353
SANISH7-201831429924307320637587821730438864
SANISH6-201830638546399225526867561391768246
SANISH5-201829572925744931612691113890826595
SANISH4-201823737427309947011003533064561613
SANISH3-201823042950128615892
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Boston Importing LNG From Russia; Pocahontas Seems Oblivious -- December 30, 2018

From a reader:
The Belgian LNG ship 'Exemplar' is currently laying off the Massachusetts coast awaiting to offload a shipment of LNG that originated from Yamal and was lifted at a French port.

Crazy and expensive way to keep the lights on in Boston!
We're still vacationing in northeastern New Mexico. It makes it difficult to blog and, worse, the demons return, questioning why I continue to blog. If I continue to blog (and I will) it is because of the notes I receive from readers like the one above. 
 
Going into the new year, I have three choices:
  1. discontinue blogging; I've achieved my original objective
  2. continue to blog, but a different format, different method
  3. no changes, or minimal changes
The first choice is off the board. I will not quit blogging about the Bakken. 
 
I'm leaning strongly toward the second, but my hunch is that no one will notice. The one "constant" will be the Bakken data:
  • the daily activity report
  • the monthly NDIC hearing dockets
To keep the Bakken data in perspective, the other "constants" will include:
  • the EIA's weekly petroleum report
  • the RBN Energy daily blog
After that, I'm not sure where I will go with the blog. 
 
*****************************
New Links

There are two new links, from the same source, the EIA. The Year in Review. 
I always find it interesting how things turn out. 
 
Last night I was reviewing the "average price of electricity" in the US and noted that electricity in North Dakota costs almost exactly half what it costs in Boston. Residential, numbers rounded/KWh:
  • North Dakota:  10 cents
  • Boston: 20 cents
What an incredibly unfair regressive tax leveled on the poor and the middle class. If one lives in North Dakota, and your monthly electricity bill is $150, all things being equal one would pay $300 in Boston. 

There's a glut of natural gas in the US. North Dakota, and I assume Texas, is flaring record amounts of natural gas. There's no "national" sense of urgency to help the middle class when it comes to energy. Ayn Rand's heroes could solve the problem overnight but the faux environmentalists and Deep State do what they can to slow things down. 

Be that as it may. Look at the costs of electricity across the US at the link above. 

Most interesting data point: in the Pacific Northwest where electricity should be practically "free" due to all hydroelectric power, it's about the same as in North Dakota:
  • Oregon: 11 cents (higher than North Dakota)
  • Washington State: 10 cents (slightly lower than North Dakota)
California, lumped with Oregon and Washington by the EIA, almost double North Dakota at 18 cents.

Texas, where electricity costs are going up due to "renewable energy" initiatives still hangs in there at 11 cents. There's a lot of "competition" to keep electric prices down in Texas, but the 'renewable energy" scam is a huge threat.
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Saturday, December 29, 2018

Week 52: December 23, 2018 -- December 29, 2018

International energy
US producers delivering a one-two punch to OPEC
China sets LNG import record; whopping y-o-y increase; and, here;
IEA forecasts US crude oil production to pass that of Russia/Saudi Arabia combined

National, non-energy:
US sets record holiday sales; up 42% over previous record set on year

Top Bakken economy story
Taxable sales and purchases, 3Q18 

Geoff Simon's top North Dakota energy stories
Belfield to see more construction in 2019; due to Davis Refinery west of city
Even if school bond passes, property taxes lower than most -- Williston Herald
With 600 students, crowding a concern in Killdeer schools -- Dickinson Press
Killdeer hopes to have new school by December 2020 -- Dunn County Herald
Sloulin Field lease amended to allow larger planes in airport's final months -- Williston Herald 
WAWS water project plans $50 million request to 2019 North Dakota Legislature -- KX News

Top North Dakota energy stories:
Bakken sets new natural gas production records; flaring

Operations
Enerplus reports a huge "Tungsten" well
EOG reports a huge Clarks Creek well

Natural gas
Bakken sets new records; production; flaring

Bakken economy
Williston office earns international award
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Friday, December 28, 2018

Williston Earns International Honor -- Another First -- December 28, 2018

From The Williston Herald:
The Williston Economic Development Office has been recognized for excellence by an international organization.
The city’s Economic Development office has earned accreditation from the International Economic Development Council, and becomes one of 62 economic development organizations to be given the accolade and be recognized as an Accredited Economic Development Organization.
Executive Director Shawn Wenko said Williston's Economic Development office is the first in the state to receive an accreditation from the council.
Earning accreditation is not an easy process. Wenko said his office began back in late May (2018).
The program is quite comprehensive and involves a two-phase peer review process to determine an organization's eligibility. The phases are a documentation review and a site visit.
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The Book Page

I'm ready for three days of relaxing and reading. We're in the Los Alamos area. I've read many, many books on J. Robert Oppenheimer and many books on the Manhattan Project, but I picked up several more from the museum gift shop today:
  • Trinity: A Graphic History of the First Atomic Bomb, Jonathan Fetter-Vorm, c. 2012;
  • The Los Alamos Primer, Robert Serber, c. 1992,
  • 109 East Palace: Robert Oppenheimer and the Secret City of Los Alamos, Jennet Conant, c. 2005;
  • Man of the Hour: James B. Conant, Warrior Scientist, Jennet Conant, c. 2017;
  • The Los Alamos Primer, Robert Serber, very thin pamphlet; from Los Alamos museum; no copyright
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Natural Gas Processing In North Dakota Gets Platts' Attention -- December 28, 2018

New Bakken natural gas processing plant caught the attention of Platts. High points:
  • field set new high of 527 mcfpd of flaring in October, 2018
  • processing, gathering investment tops $3 billion
From the linked article:
Although natural gas flaring in the Bakken Shale set records in 2018, those levels are starting to fall as the first of one of several processing plants planned for the play is now online, part of over $3 billion in investment activity expected in the coming year.
A processing plant expansion pushed Bakken Shale dry gas production to a record 2 Bcf/d over the past week.
Bakken Shale production has been on the rise in 2018, although it failed to increase significantly in recent months due to processing and flaring constraints.
After closing out 2017 at just under 1.7 Bcf/d, Bakken Shale production pushed above 1.8 Bcf/d for the first time in August, but then hovered around 1.8 Bcf/d to 1.9 Bcf/d, as the region awaited additional processing capacity. The vanguard of said capacity is now online, with Oasis Midstream's Wild Basin plant posting record high deliveries of about 120 MMcf/d to its interconnect with WBI over the past week.
Oasis confirmed to S&P Global Platts the plant was online.
The plant delivered an average of 73 MMcf/d in 2018 up until this point, and never exceeded 103 MMcf on any day.
Wild Basin's expansion from 80 MMcf/d to 260 MMcf/d was completed in November and it is now online. The extra Bakken Shale production is expected to make its way toward Chicago on the Northern Border Pipeline system at the expense of imports from Canada.
Several processing plants and pipeline projects were announced or initiated construction in 2018, representing a combined investment of more than $3 billion, Justin Kringstad, director of the North Dakota Pipeline Authority, said during a December 21 conference call.
Four large-scale processing plants are expected to be completed in 2019, adding a combined 690 MMcf/d of capacity, which is more than the volume currently being flared.
However, construction of most of the projects is not expected to be completed until the middle of 2019 or at the end of year.
"Getting through winter and getting through the first quarter, things are going to remain likely challenging from the gas capture perspective," Kringstad said.
By the end of 2019, Kringstad projects North Dakota will produce 2.9 Bcf/d of gas and 1.49 million b/d of oil.
More at the link.

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The Book Page

As part of our 14-day ski trip and tour of northern New Mexico, we are spending three or four days in Los Alamos. Part of our son-in-law's resume includes: nuclear engineer and US naval submarine officer. He is looking forward to touring the Los Alamos area with his daughters.

We arrived a day early and have scouted the area and visited "the museum." Maybe more on that later.

In the meantime I am re-reading The Triumph and Tragedy of J. Robert Oppenheimer: American Prometheus, Kai Bird and Martin J. Sherwin, c. 2005. I've read it once before -- several years ago -- but I was eager to re-read the last half of the book.

Lots of politics after WWII. What happened to Oppenheimer, politically, after the war, makes this whole dust-up between President Trump and the US Congress regarding the wall look incredibly petty.

What little I've learned about Oppenheimer re-reading Bird and Sherwin, suggests that Oppenheimer, politically, may have been quite naive, but he was certainly a gentleman, a scholar, and a human being of the first order.
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The Number Of Active Rigs Trending Down -- December 28, 2018

Updates

January 2, 2019: see the natural gas "withdrawal" data below. A reader who knows much, much more about this than I do, provided this analysis ... his entire analysis was way too long for the blog, but here are the data points I thought important --
  • the natural gas storage report for the week ending December 21st from the EIA showed that the quantity of natural gas in storage in the US fell by 48 billion cubic feet to 2,725 billion cubic feet over the week, which left our gas supplies 623 billion cubic feet, or 18.6% below the 3,348 billion cubic feet that were in storage on December 22nd of last year, and 647 billion cubic feet, or 19.2% below the five-year average of 3,372 billion cubic feet of natural gas that are typically in storage after the third week of December
  • this week's 48 billion cubic feet withdrawal from US natural gas supplies was just about what most analysts had been expecting, but it was well below the average of 121 billion cubic feet of natural gas that have been withdrawn from US gas storage during the third week of December in recent years
  • natural gas storage facilities in the Eastern US saw a 16 billion cubic feet draw from their supplies over the week, half of their average withdrawal over the past five years, as the region's gas supply deficit was reduced to 14.4% below normal for this time of year, while natural gas supplies in the Midwest fell by 23 billion cubic feet, in contrast to the normal 40 billion cubic feet pull, as their supply deficit was reduced to 12.2% below the normal for the third weekend of December
  • the South Central region only saw a 2 billion cubic feet drop in their supplies, in contrast to their normal 30 billion cubic foot withdrawal, as their natural gas storage deficit was reduced to 25.5% below their five-year average for this time of year
  • at the same time, 3 billion cubic feet were pulled out of natural gas supplies in the sparsely populated Mountain region, which normally pulls out 7 billion cubic feet for the week, as their deficit from normal fell to 21.9%, while 4 billion cubic feet were withdrawn from storage in the Pacific region, vs 12 billion cubic feet normally withdrawn, and their natural gas supply deficit fell to 27.4% below normal for this time of year
  • so, we've just seen our weekly withdrawal drop from 141 billion cubic feet during the week ending December 14th to just 48 billion cubic feet during the current reporting week ending December 21st
  • as we've mentioned several times, natural gas demand and hence withdrawal of gas from storage is largely driven by changes in temperature, relatively steady industrial and export demand notwithstanding 
  • temperatures for the heavily populated East, Midwest and South Central regions were generally below normal over the period from December 8th thru December 14th, with the temperatures in the East, which accounts more than a third of the population, consistently averaging in the mid-30s, while temperatures in the Midwest saw average temperatures in the 20s for four days to start the period
  • that colder than normal period, which included 3 days that were 5 to 9 degrees colder than normal for each of those regions, is what resulted in the 141 billion cubic feet withdrawal from our natural gas supplies over the week ending December 14th, just modestly above the 5 year average withdrawal of 136 billion cubic feet
  • but the period from December 15th thru December 21st, representing the dates of this week's report; not only were the temperatures in the East, Midwest and South Central regions above normal for each day during the period, but temperatures for all 5 regions were above normal for every day during the period, with temperatures in the East averaging in the mid-40s, and temperatures in the Midwest averaging in the upper 30s over the period
  • in fact, except for a few counties on the Gulf Coast, the entire US saw above normal temperatures during the week, with the broad area from the northern Rockies to the Great Lakes all more than 10 degrees above normal, as you can see on the map below, also from the natural gas storage dashboard
  • overall, we can estimate that temperatures for the lower 48 averaged at least 7 degrees warmer during the week ending December 21st than they were during the week ending December 14th 
  • as a result, the daily production of 87.2 billion cubic feet was nearly adequate to meet the country's needs, and hence only 48 billion cubic feet, or about 7 billion cubic feet per day, needed to be withdrawn from storage during the week 
  • furthermore, if we look at the daily regional average temperatures over the 6 days beginning December 22, they too are all above normal, with the small exception of the 30 degree average on December 27th for the mountain states
  • that means that the coming week's report for the week ending December 28th will again show a withdrawal from storage much below normal, also serving to alleviate the natural gas deficit which had been running 20% below normal nationally in recent weeks

Original Post

Holiday sales: see link --
  • last year (2017)
    • a record $598 billion dollars — up $33 billion from last year; up 6%
  • this year (2018)
    • a record $850 billion dollars — up $252 billion from last year; up 42%.
Bull moose, Mohall, North Dakota, link here.


Links to this post
***************************************** 

Weekly Energy Picture

 Gasoline demand, link here:



EIA weekly petroleum report, link here:

  • weekly crude oil inventories: unchanged
  • weekly crude oil inventories: 441.4 million bbls
  • weekly crude oil inventories: still 75 above the five-year average for this time of the year
  • refineries operating at 95% of capacity
  • gasoline supplied about the same as this time last year
  • distillate fuel was up almost 8% from same period last year 
  • time to re-balance -- at this rate, never --
    Week
    Date
    Change w-o-w
    In Storage
    Weeks to RB to 350 Million Bbls
    Week 0
    November 21, 2018
    4.9
    446.90
    N/A
    Week 1
    November 28, 2018
    3.6
    450.50
    N/A
    Week 2
    December 6, 2018
    -7.3
    443.20
    N/A
    Week 3
    December 12, 2018
    -1.2
    442.00
    Never
    Week 4
    December 19, 2018
    -0.5
    441.50
    Never at this rate
    Week 5
    December 28, 2018
    0
    441.40
    Never at this rate
Natural gas drawdown, link here:



********************************
Back to the Bakken
Active rigs:

$45.3312/28/201812/28/201712/28/201612/28/201512/28/2014
Active Rigs66503861173

Three new permits:
  • Operator: Slawson
  • Field: Big Bend (McKenzie)
  • Comments: Slawson has three permits for a Slasher Federal pad in 34-152-92;
Five permits renewed:
  • BR (3): two Boxcar permits and one Audubon permit, all in Dunn County
  • Petro Harvester Operating Company (2), two FLX2 permits, both in Burke County
Four producing wells (DUCs) reported as completed (more on these later):
  • 12337, 302, Foundation Energy Management, Lynne 43-2, Madison well;
  • 12233, 382, Foundation Energy Management, Lynne 34-2, Madison well;
  • 12391, 244, Foundation Energy Management, Lynne 32-2, Madison well;
  • 12354, 196, Foundation Energy Management, Fjeldahl 23-2, a Madison well,
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