The Million Dollar Way (The Bakken Oil Blog): 09/17/24

Tuesday, September 17, 2024

Apple's Android Messaging Overhaul; Apple Card -- September 17, 2024

Locator: 48309AAPL.

Link here.

Apple Card: This is a biggie. We'll know by the end of the year. Link here.

US Consumer Alive And Well -- Carl Q -- September 17, 2024

Locator: 48308ECON.

Link here. And a reminder: 3Q24 estimate GDP came in at a surprisingly strong 3.0%. Wow.

Personal Mileage -- 2011 Honda -- August 3, 2024

Locator: 48307HONDA.

Tag: mileage personal

Actually it's a 2012 model but I bought it in December, 2011, in Williston, ND. I needed a car to get back to Boston. I had planned to take the train but local / regional floods had "washed out" Amtrak's rails.

Thirty-six (36) days on a 3/4th tank of gas.

Nine cents / mile.

Look at the price of gasoline here in north Texas: $2.54!

AI -- Microsoft, BlackRock -- September 17, 2024

Locator: 48610AI.

With regard to AI, there are two camps:

it's all hype / hyped
it's the real deal

I'm in the second camp.

Link here.

Tag: Microsoft, MSFT, BlackRock, AI

COP To Acquire MRO --- July 1, 2024

Locator: 48609B.

This was posted elsewhere. Thought it important enough to post at this blog.

Mineral owners in the Bakken may be receiving royalties from MRO.

MRO could remain a wholly-owned subsidiary of COP and and royalties still coming from MRO.

Or MRO could be absorbed by BR (a wholly-owned subsidiary of COP) or something entirely else.

We won't know for awhile.

Five New Permits; Six DUCs Reported As Completed -- September 17, 2024

Locator: 48608B.

Record high: S&P 500 hit a new intraday high today -- if not, very close before closing flat.

FANG: up $5 today.

BRK-B: up as much as $7 today.

META: near another high; chartists suggests it could have a huge breakout.

Cramer: out in San Francisco, AI conference.

Fed getting ready to cut the Fed rate: "don't overthink it."
AI

AI is not a strategy
for most, AI is a necessary expense
"in fact," says Cramer, "AI makes everything go faster"
"the AI agent knows you; the AI agent will give you something better than we already have"

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Back to the Bakken

WTI: $71.19.

Active rigs: 39.

Five new permits, #41138 - #41142, inclusive:

Operators: CLR, Phoenix Operating
Fields: Crazy Man Creek (Williams); Bailey (Dunn)
Comments:

Phoenix Operating has a permit for a Marshall well, NWNW 13-144-94,

to be sited 381 FNL and 424 FWL; spacing unit section 2 / 11 - 144-94;

CLR has permits for three Stangeland wells and one Hayes well, SESE 6-153-99;

to be sited 29 FSL and at 1058 FEL, 1026 FEL, 994 FEL, and 962 FEL.

Six producing wells (DUCs) reported as completed:

40416, 887, Kraken, Fasching 15-22-27 4H, Hebron, npd,
40465, 803, Kraken, Fasching LE 15-22-27 12H, Hebron, npd,
40466, 719, Kraken, Milloy 10-3-34 3H, Hebron, npd,
40467, 864, Kraken, Milloy 10-3-34 2H, Hebron, npd,
40468, 666, Kraken, Milloy LE 10-3-34 1H, Hebron, npd,
40515, 274, CLR, Hartman 12-28H, Chimney Butte, npd,

Based on new name (PNC) it appears Slawson has canceled four Shad Rap Federal permits.

GDPNow 3Q24 Estimate Raised From 2.5% to 3.0% -- September 17, 2024

Locator: 48607B.

GDPNow: Link here. GDPNow released today: 3.0%; up from 2.5% September 9, 2024. Next estimate tomorrow, September 18, 2024.

Cramer's First Hour -- Retail Sales: Solid Report, Better Than Expected; Revisions Revised Up -- September 17, 2024

Locator: 48606CRAMER.

Cramer's first hour: a mix of facts, factoids, opinions from various sources -- often not cited -- while listening to Cramer's first hour on CNBC.

Hyperscalers: bingo. Mentioned at 8:30 a.m. by Jim Cramer.

August retail sales: up one-tenth of a percent; forecast, to be negative, minus 0.2%. First number; revisions going forward.

ex autos: +0.1% vs +0.2% estimate
past numbers: upward revisions

GDPNow: new estimate to be released later today. Above numbers suggest GDP estimate could rise. Link here. GDPNow released today: 3.0%; up from 2.5% September 9, 2024.

MSFT: up $8 / share. Raises dividend 10%; announces $60-billion share buyback.

All tech: looking better.

AAPL: not tech, but "consumer electronics."

Personal investing: SRE by rule.

Palantir:

Fed cut: coming. And no one understands why we need a cut. LOL.

Can anyone see the pattern? It appears the soft landing / hard landing is "defined" less than six months after the first cut is made. So, we finally have a timeline. If we get a fed rate cut today and if the cuts continue as expected, if we don't have a recession in March, 2025 -- 1st / 2nd quarter 2025 -- then we have a soft landing.

Dow at an all-time high and investors still want a 50-bp cut in the Fed rate.

Tech: absolutely remarkable. That $60-billion shareback is bigger than most companies.

Savings: still 30% greater than what it was pre-Covid (end of 2019).

**********************************
Disclaimer
Brief Reminder

I am inappropriately exuberant about the US economy and the US market.
I am also inappropriately exuberant about all things Apple.
See disclaimer. This is not an investment site.
Disclaimer: this is not an investment site. Do not make any investment, financial, job, career, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here. All my posts are done quickly: there will be content and typographical errors. If anything on any of my posts is important to you, go to the source. If/when I find typographical / content errors, I will correct them.
Reminder: I am inappropriately exuberant about the US economy and the US market.
I am also inappropriately exuberant about all things Apple.
And now, Nvidia, also. I am also inappropriately exuberant about all things Nvidia.

Evertything, Everywhere, Happening All At Once -- September 17, 2024

Locator: 48605ARCHIVES.

Everything, everywhere happening all at once: so many interesting things going on right now. Long post earlier this morning. Most interesting:

natural gas pipeline story in Texas;
folks mis-reading short delivery times for Apple;
BRK -- something going on?

BRK:

The cash horde: no analysis --

Jain:

Hess Continues To Report Some Great Wells -- September 17, 2024

Locator: 48604B.

Everything, everywhere happening all at once: so many interesting things going on right now. Long post earlier this morning. Most interesting:

natural gas pipeline story in Texas;
folks mis-reading short delivery times for Apple;
BRK -- something going on?

********************************
Back to the Bakken

WTI: $69.86.

Wednesday, September 18, 2024: 37 for the month; 165 for the quarter, 489 for the year
40241, conf, Hess, BL-Kerbaugh-156-96-3427H-6, Beaver Lodge:

Date	Oil Runs	MCF Sold
7-2024	17775	66789
6-2024	23176	56432
5-2024	26231	44141
4-2024	43262	83196
3-2024	21747	40018

38649, conf, CLR, Ravin 13-1HSL, Dimmick Lake.

Tuesday, September 17, 2024: 35 for the month; 163 for the quarter, 487 for the year
38262, conf, Hess, BB-Olson-150-95-0817H-4, Blue Buttes:

Date	Oil Runs	MCF Sold
7-2024	27823	60727
6-2024	35268	66827
5-2024	21925	38988
4-2024	28966	48690
3-2024	17246	22471

RBN Energy: importance of Colorado City (TX) hub grows as crude oil flows to Houston increase. Archived.

Colorado City, TX, has deep roots in the history of the American West, beginning as a ranger camp in 1877. As cattlemen flocked to the area, it quickly became a vital center for the cattle industry, earning the moniker “The Mother City of West Texas.” The arrival of the Texas & Pacific Railway in 1881 marked a turning point for the town. It was formally organized the following year, its economy bolstered by cattle, cotton and a soon-burgeoning oil industry. A 1920s oil boom further elevated Colorado City’s economic status, marking the beginning of its now long-standing importance in the oil industry.

In today’s RBN blog, we’ll explore how Colorado City continues to serve as a critical junction, facilitating the movement of crude from the prolific Permian Basin to major destinations such as Cushing, OK, and the U.S. Gulf Coast.

Tuesday -- September 17, 2024

Locator: 48603ARCHIVES.

Big Oil win: 9th Circuit Court. Link here. The big story? It was a(n) unanimous decision:

Several oil companies including Exxon Mobil, opens new tab and Chevron, opens new tab defeated an appeal on Monday by consumers who accused them of colluding with former U.S. President Donald Trump, Russia and Saudi Arabia to cut oil production, boosting prices at the pump.

In a 3-0 decision, the 9th U.S. Circuit Court of Appeals in San Francisco said two dozen consumers could not pursue class action claims because they concerned political questions and the oil-producing policies of foreign countries.

Natural gas: it all started with these two stories -- RBN Energy and Bloomberg/Javier Blas. The rabbit hole:

DeLa Express, Wood, September 16, 2024;
natgas pipeline, selected Texas; EIA, September 10, 2024;
DeLa, Oil & Gas Watch, June 6, 2024;
DeLa, KXAN, June 4, 2024;
TETCO, wiki;
Plaquemines, Oil & Gas Journal, April 17, 2024;

Gasoline, road to Califorrnia, Barron's, September 17, 2024.

BRK:

$300 billion cash
Jain sells half his BRK stock; previously reported

MSFT: link here --

raises dividend by 10%;
announces $60-billion share buyback

Intel's turnaround plan: link here.

to spin off its chipmaking business --

just the other day someone over on social mediat said that rumor was absolutely bonkers; wouldn't happen;

huge story;

Previously reported:

Dow hits new high; tech struggling but it's shorterm and its "select." From Yahoo!Finance:

Boeing: bankruptcy was mentioned 24 hours ago on CNBC when discussing Boeing. Meanwhile, days after thousands of Boeing employees went on strike, the company said it would freeze hiring and cut costs, halting production of its most popular commercial jet.

Amazon Prime Day: October 8 - 9. The Verge. Two full days.

Peter Zeihan today: substitute SPR for offshore production --

Tupperware: to file for bankruptcy. Tectonic shifts in American dining habits over the past 50 years.

UT-Austin: to drop automatic admissions fro top Texas students to 5% in 2026.

Apple iPhone 16 sales: is something being missed? Date/time bragging rights. We'll see. Link here. Regardless, Tim Cook, master of logistics, can rightly crow that shipping times have greatly improved Great news for consumers. After dropping 2.8% yesterday, AAPL shares are up slightly in pre-market trading.

Affirm: Affirm's BNPL deal with Apple is now live; investors have been waiting for this. Link here.

Affirm Holdings pay-over-time options are now available to Apple Pay users on the iPhone and iPad, the ‘buy now, pay later’ company announced Monday.

“We are thrilled to bring the power of Affirm to Apple Pay users in the U.S. and the retailers where they shop,” said Vishal Kapoor, Affirm’s senior vice president of product.

“This integration combines the ease, convenience and security of Apple Pay alongside the features users love in Affirm—flexibility, transparency and no late or hidden fees.”

Users with iOS 18 or iPadOS 18 or later can select “Other Cards & Pay Later Options” when checking out with Apple Pay, and after choosing Affirm, they will undergo an eligibility check. Approved users will see customized payment plans, according to the release.

Politics: Chief Justice Roberts, Donald Trump, three decisions favoring Trump -- NYT exclusive -- Chief Justice Roberts got it right. He schooled the court. Link here.