Weather Update -- June 10, 2023

Locator: 44897TEMP.  

Later: 8:35 p.m. CDT -- we had no rain, no storms. In the pool all day.

Original Post

Last evening our weatherman for the DFW area -- of whom we are all getting tired -- has a habit of hyping the story.

Last evening, he breathlessly forecast another severe Texas two-step thunderstorm with hail larger than golf balls.

The first storm was to be rather mild compared to the second storm that would follow.

He forecast the first storm to hit at 11:00 a.m. and end at 1:00 p.m.

The much worse second storm would roll through our area starting at 2:00 p.m. and last well past 4:00 p.m.

Because I'm on my bike, I'm following the weather / radar closely.

At 8:00 a.m this morning when I started out, it did look like some rain at 11:00 and I had planned to be home by 10:30 a.m.

I just checked the weather / radar: that first storm system has disappeared. Absolutely nothing on radar forecast for our area through 4:00 p.m. Clear as a bell.

After 4:00 p.m.: a chance of rain. 

LOL.

But we know that the average global temperature in one hundred years will be two degrees higher than it is now, thanks to climate forecasters like John Kerry.

Link here.

California Snowpack -- Extraordinary -- May 16, 2023

Locator: 44660GW. 

Busy, Busy, Busy Friday -- So Much To Post -- The EU Just Can't Help Itself -- Aprll 21, 2023

Locator: 44442B.

Before we start: might the US have its first cybernetic president in 2025? Something to think about.

The EU is absolutely committed to destroying its economy. When will Daimler say enough is enough?

Link here. This was in USA Today. This is the kind of graphic Bloomberg should have posted.

• of the entire EU, only Germany makes the chart
• the US-EU industrial gap continues to widen and yet US has greatest emissions decline
• this graph is worth the subscription price of The Million Dollar Way blog!

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Back to the Bakken

Active rigs: 44.

Peter Zeihan newsletter.

WTI: $78.12. Apparently ...

Natural gas: $2.239.

Monday, April 24, 2023: 41 for the month; 41 for the quarter, 296 for the year
None.

Sunday, April 23, 2023: 41 for the month; 41 for the quarter, 296 for the year
38682, conf, Whiting, LBJ 14-14HU,
36146, conf, BR, Mazamaphantom 1A MBH-ULW,

Saturday, April 22, 2023: 39 for the month; 39 for the quarter, 294 for the year
None.

Friday, April 21, 2023: 39 for the month; 39 for the quarter, 294 for the year
39062, conf, KODA Resources, Bock 3229-2 BH,
37474, conf, Petro-Hunt, Watterud 160-95-11C-2-3H,

RBN Energy: huge incentives, rising demand drive boom in clean ammonia project development. Link here.

For some time now, clean ammonia proponents have been talking up its potential as a very-low-carbon alternative for power plants, ships and other hydrocarbon consumers. Still, rock-solid plans for U.S. projects to produce large volumes of ammonia from clean hydrogen remained few and far between. Until lately, that is, with the recent uptick in project announcements spurred on, in large part, by the supercharged tax credits for carbon capture and sequestration (CCS) in the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) and the newly firmed-up efforts by power generators in Japan and South Korea to make clean ammonia an important part of their fuel mix going forward. In today’s RBN blog, we discuss the progress that clean ammonia has made since the IRA became law and the growing list of projects advancing to a final investment decision (FID), construction and production.

We’ll begin with a brief refresher course on what clean ammonia is, how it’s produced and what it can be used for. Then we’ll look at the primary drivers behind the development of clean ammonia production facilities (and ammonia export terminals), and after that (in Part 2) we’ll discuss in detail the bevy of U.S. projects now being planned.

Atmospheric CO2 -- March, 2023

Locator: 44360B.  

Before we get started: the earth's oceans are now rising at 0.13 inches per year. That's over a foot over 100 years.

Link here.

Global Warming, North Dakota, Winter 2022 - 2023

From a reader.

Wow, look at Willliston; holds the record among cities shown.

Word ForThe Day: Ungual -- February 26, 2023

One can learn the meaning of a word many different ways. My problem: I often learn a new word but then forget the meaning sometime later. I have much more success if I learn the new word from a book.

From page 230, The Rise and Reign of the Mammals: A New History, From the Shadow of the Dinosaurs to US, Steve Brusatte, c. 2022.

 "These mammals became known as Darwin's South American Ungulates, because many of them walked on hooves -- a hoof being the modified ungual, or last bone, on each finger or toe, Darwin's Ungulates were astoundingly diverse."

From wiki:

An ungual (from Latin unguis, i.e. nail) is a highly modified distal toe bone which ends in a hoof, claw, or nail. Elephants and ungulates have ungual phalanges, as did the sauropods and horned dinosaurs. A claw is a highly modified ungual phalanx.

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Global Warming Smacks New England

Link here.

Meanwhile, a historic winter storm hits southern California.

Global Warming Smacks Southern California -- February 22, 2023

Two- to- five feet of snow at elevation above 4,000 feet, southern California.  Link here.

Meanwhile, San Francisco braces for first snow since 1976 as more winter storms arrive.

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Chart of the Day

Google: browser penetration edge chrome safari firefox -- from last month --

Link here for best browsers for 2023.

History: YouTube.

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Original Post

Link here.

This is Chrome. This was all the rage a couple of years ago.

I know exactly what explains this. I wonder if anyone else does?

I would not have predicted this, but I certainly "believe" it and know why, assuming the numbers are accurate.

Quick: what browser do you use? That's part of the explanation for the graphic below.

Holiday Retail Sales Numbers Starting To Come In -- December 26, 2022

From Market Street:

Am I missing something?

This is not a "good news" headline.

First, this is simply in line with inflation numbers. 

But worse, retailers had to deeply discount their products this year.

So, retail sales in line with last year (at best) and margins are going to be a lot, lot lower.

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Global Warming Killed 27 In Western New York

Link here.

ERCOT -- Pricing -- December 26, 2022

Link here.

Operating reserves: 9,427 MW.  Difference between supply and demand.

NYISO: at 8th decile, worst I've ever seen for NYISO.

ISONE: still burning oil; accounts for 26% of the mix. Current demand: 13,702 MW.

Note:Texas has almost as much excess supply (reserves) right now as total demand in New England.

NYISO demand: 18,383 MW.

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ISONE

During the worst of the freeze, rates went into the red, something I had never seen in ten years of following ISONE and this is only the beginning of winter. Still four more months.

Christmas Eve:

Patrick Kennedy: Got Snow? Yup, Lots Of It -- December 3, 2022

Decades after saying his grandchildren would never see snow, NOAA is now reporting record amounts of snow cover in the northern hemisphere -- the most snow cover in fifty-six years. [Update: most likely, the original quote came from RFK, Jr, but it's now impossible to find the original quote on the internet. The quote was made in November, 2008. Patrick was the Kennedy that arranged for inexpensive / free oil from Venezuela (Citgo; Chavez) for those in need in Massachusetts. That initiative lasted all of a couple of years.]

For the archives. I've long lost interest in the subject. 

East Coast Storm -- ISO NE -- November 19, 2022

ISO NE:

• demand, only: 14K MW
• $135 / MW

New York, link here:

Residents in western New York got even more snow Saturday after a major winter storm walloped the region Friday, dropping a total of more than 6 feet in some areas and shutting down schools and businesses.

The National Weather Service said snow was falling in parts of Niagara County at a rate of two to three inches per hour on Saturday afternoon.

Jurkowski called the whopping 6 feet of snow one of the top three heaviest snowfalls in recorded history for the Buffalo region.

It hasn't received this amount of snow since 2014. New York Gov. Kathy Hochul said on Saturday that it could be the most snowfall in a 24-hour period in New York's history. She said she had deployed 150 National Guard and that she was requesting a federal emergency declaration.

From Josh Young:

Flashback: January 5, 2018.

In Case You Missed This -- How Many Times Has He Had Covid? November 19, 2022

Link here.

 Forces larger than Kerry are protecting us.

Anticipating A Cold Weekend -- November 18, 2022

Scotch eggs: link here.

• along with the "right" Scotch, my Saturday brunch
• Thirsty Lion
• eleven of them across the US
• only eleven
• another one soon to come to north Ft Worth 
• strictest confidence; don't tell anyone
  
• one of the eleven "owns" Denver"
• one of the other eleven: one minute -- by foot -- from my house.

Houston: link here.

Reflections: 1969.

FRED: industrial production.

• really?
• fact-checked.

Apple:

• after more than a decade of blogging, one thing I've noticed
• a lot of folks have trouble reading graphs
• hopefully you-all can read this one:
  

XOM - Guyana, link here:

• this is simply incredible but I bet less than 1% of oil investors will read this
• and even less will understand what this means -- on so many levels
• I agree with the reader who wrote: I should have bought more Hess
• to put this in perspective, the Bakken? about 100 miles x 100 miles = 10,000 square miles
• to put this in perspective, the Bakken? about 50 billion bbls oil, conservative estimate
  

Gershwin:

• when I want to teach Sophia about orchestras, this is one video I use.

The carnival is over: link here.

Storm: no name yet?

GRAND RAPIDS, Mich. (WOOD) — West Michigan is in the midst of one of the more prolific November snowfall events on record, and the totals will continue to add up through the weekend.

As of early Friday morning, the National Weather Service had recorded 10.1 inches of snow in Grand Rapids. They say it makes this the 10th-snowiest two-day stretch in November in Grand Rapids history

With snow falling through the day, there’s a chance it could move higher up the list before midnight.

The Winter Storm Warning has been expanded & extended and the Winter Weather Advisory has been extended. Both now run until 7 a.m. Sunday. They were originally set to expire early Saturday. Much of West Michigan is now under a Winter Storm Warning.

Marie Kondo: has a new book out.

• I read her first book. Life-changing.
• I won't buy her most recent book: it won't bring me any joy. 
  

I put a spell on you: link here.

Oh, and more oil, link here:

Tinker tailor: link here.

Here We Go! The Polar Vortex -- Has This Storm Been Named? November 18, 2022

Link here. And, link here.

It's just beginning, folks.

"Our Grandchildren May Never See Snow Again" -- Patrick Kennedy -- November 18, 2022

No links, just screen shots.

Atmospheric CO2 -- October, 2022

Link here.

0.3.333% increase y/y:

• global economy opens up in early 2022

0.644% increase y/y:

• global economy "shut down" for the entire twelve months

0.67% increase y/y, the earth was "shut-down" the entire year of 2022;

• seven of the twelve months, the global economy was shut down

 

aaaaa

This Was In The Small Print When Amazon Acquired NFL Thursday Night Football -- Whoo-Hoo! -- October 20, 2022

Everyone has their favorite cable-streaming bundle.

Mine?

Spectrum, simply for the cable access. But it does have some "perks."

Then Hulu as the "basic" streaming option around which everything else is added à la carte.

The first heavy hors d'oeuvres: the Amazon FireStick and Amazon Prime Video.

The second heavy hors d'oeuvres: Apple TV.

With Amazon Prime Video, we now get NFL Thursday Night Football.

And, just announced overnight, with Amazon Prime Video: NFL Friday Night Football. 

LOL. NFL Friday Night Football? Does it even exist?

It does now. 

After gaining rights to “Thursday Night Football,” Amazon Prime is getting a crack at a game on Friday.

The live-streaming giant will launch a new “Black Friday” broadcast in 2023, broadcasting a new game on the day after Thanksgiving. The move will add more NFL football to a period that opens the nation’s critical holiday shopping season and expand the NFL beyond its usual annual Thanksgiving roosts on NBC, CBS and Fox.

Executives from Amazon and the NFL indicated the new match was baked into the recent 11-year deal the two sides struck that gave the digital titan sole rights to “Thursday Night Football,” starting with the current season. 

Amazon has moved aggressively to bolster its new property, enlisting top announcers like Al Michaels, and promoting the games widely via its shipping materials and online portal.

Original content: of course, HBO, Netflix, Disney and others have all had original content as the basis for their business models but now three streaming giants with deep pockets are providing yet even more original content: Hulu, Amazon, and Apple. The winner? The viewing consumer.

By the way, I see YouTube Premium is now offering their fare for $22.99 / month with up to six separate accounts. Individual and student plans would be even less expensive. At a price point that low one wonders if YouTube Premium is losing market share.

YouTube's business model does not include original content. 

It's gonna come down to Hulu vs YouTube and my hunch: Hulu will win.

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A Renewable Energy Factoid

Link here.

Hypocrisy 101 -- October 9, 2022

Some September 10, 2022:

• The three most dangerous people in the western world today
• King Charles III. 
• Janet Yellen. 
• John Kerry.

All three want oil production to cease immediately.

So, why is Ms Yellen so upset? I guess "reality sucks."

1 --> 2 --> 3 -- September 23, 2022

Antarctica unaffected by climate change, global warming: link here.

Wind: well said. Link here.

That which does not kill you, will make you stronger. Link here.

U.S. exports of natural gas to Mexico eased somewhat after a record June 2021, which saw shipments above 7 Bcf/d occur multiple times, the high mark set on June 17 of 7.4 Bcf. Since February 2022, however, exports have crept up each month and totaled about 176 Bcf in April for an average of about 5.9 Bcf/d.

Two cross-border pipelines have driven growth in U.S. gas exports to Mexico.

Energy Transfer Partners’ Trans-Pecos Pipeline originates at the Waha Hub in the Delaware Basin and delivers natural gas to the U.S. border at Presidio, Texas, into the Wahalajara pipeline system. 

On the Gulf Coast, Enbridge Inc.’s Valley Crossing Pipeline on the Texas side of the border delivers gas to the Sur de Texas-Tuxpan Pipeline in Mexico, which is operated by a unit of TC Energy Corp.

The Weather Page -- North Texas -- Yeah, The Grid Is Doing Just Fine -- Changes In Latitude, Changes In Attitude -- September 2, 2022

Rainfall totals: DFW, link here. 

Sitting on the balcony, enjoying the weather. It's been like this the past two or three days and will continue through Labor Day weekend. All soccer games have been canceled, and even horseback riding has been canceled.

Meanwhile, link here:

Winter forecast, link here. How is this different than any other year? A pretty safe bet. Global warming?