The Million Dollar Way (The Bakken Oil Blog): 05/02/26

Saturday, May 2, 2026

Tech And Investing -- May 2, 2026

Locator: 50698TECH.

So, go contrarian. Sell tech.

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Disclaimer
Briefly

Briefly:

I am inappropriately exuberant about the Bakken and I am often well out front of my headlights. I am often appropriately accused of hyperbole when it comes to the Bakken.
I am inappropriately exuberant about the US economy and the US market.
I am also inappropriately exuberant about all things Apple.
See disclaimer. This is not an investment site.
Disclaimer: this is not an investment site. Do not make any investment, financial, job, career, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here. All my posts are done quickly: there will be content and typographical errors. If something appears wrong, it probably is. Feel free to fact check everything.
If anything on any of my posts is important to you, go to the source. If/when I find typographical / content errors, I will correct them.
Reminder: I am inappropriately exuberant about the Bakken, US economy, and the US market.
I am also inappropriately exuberant about all things Apple.
And now, Nvidia, also. I am also inappropriately exuberant about all things Nvidia. Nvidia is a metonym for AI and/or the sixth industrial revolution.
I've now added Broadcom to the disclaimer. I am also inappropriately exuberant about all things Broadcom. Now, I've added Amazon.
Longer version here.

App Economy: AAPL Vs BRK -- May 2, 2026

Locator: 50697BRK.

App Economy:

Abel had a great sales pitch. I believe BRK's benchmark is the S&P 500, long-term. But it would be more interesting to know which investment -- unless it's the S&P 500 ETF -- BRK is really competing with -- such as SCHB or SCHG. For the investor, in other words, if the investor is looking at SCHB or SCHG would BRK be a better investment?

This says it all:

**********************************
Disclaimer
Briefly

Briefly:

I am inappropriately exuberant about the Bakken and I am often well out front of my headlights. I am often appropriately accused of hyperbole when it comes to the Bakken.
I am inappropriately exuberant about the US economy and the US market.
I am also inappropriately exuberant about all things Apple.
See disclaimer. This is not an investment site.
Disclaimer: this is not an investment site. Do not make any investment, financial, job, career, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here. All my posts are done quickly: there will be content and typographical errors. If something appears wrong, it probably is. Feel free to fact check everything.
If anything on any of my posts is important to you, go to the source. If/when I find typographical / content errors, I will correct them.
Reminder: I am inappropriately exuberant about the Bakken, US economy, and the US market.
I am also inappropriately exuberant about all things Apple.
And now, Nvidia, also. I am also inappropriately exuberant about all things Nvidia. Nvidia is a metonym for AI and/or the sixth industrial revolution.
I've now added Broadcom to the disclaimer. I am also inappropriately exuberant about all things Broadcom. Now, I've added Amazon.
Longer version here.

Berkshire Hathaway -- 1Q26

Locator: 50696BRK.

Updates

May 4, 2026: pre-market?

May 3, 2026:

CNBC on Greg Abel's first annual meeting: solid A -- link here.
Kingswell on Greg Abel's first annual meeting: solid A -- link here.

Original Post

Initial note on BRK's annual meeting was here, but the updates will be tracked here.

At the end of the day: Greg Abel had a great sales pitch but it looked like BRK prefers "collecting" great American companies and not worry about short term gains. Most concerning were Abel's comments on their wholly-owned subsidiary BNSF.

This says it all. Link here. See this post.

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Sales Pitch

It's pretty obvious where one should have invested new money this past year if one were to choose between SCHB and BRKB.

SCHB: passively managed; run by computers; algorithms; rules.

BRKB: highly, highly, highly personally run by a small human team.

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Takeaways From CEO Abel's Comments

#2 Ajit, age 65, and by inference, #1 Abel, were both "skeptical" of AI.

Risk is their number one concern.

When it comes to AI, they need to see "safeguards."

Insurance division did well this past year because there were no major disasters, like California fires.

They still like cash: cash horde is now flirting with $400 billion. BRK's market value: $1.02 trillion and almost 40% of that is cash?

**********************************
Disclaimer
Briefly

Briefly:

I am inappropriately exuberant about the Bakken and I am often well out front of my headlights. I am often appropriately accused of hyperbole when it comes to the Bakken.
I am inappropriately exuberant about the US economy and the US market.
I am also inappropriately exuberant about all things Apple.
See disclaimer. This is not an investment site.
Disclaimer: this is not an investment site. Do not make any investment, financial, job, career, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here. All my posts are done quickly: there will be content and typographical errors. If something appears wrong, it probably is. Feel free to fact check everything.
If anything on any of my posts is important to you, go to the source. If/when I find typographical / content errors, I will correct them.
Reminder: I am inappropriately exuberant about the Bakken, US economy, and the US market.
I am also inappropriately exuberant about all things Apple.
And now, Nvidia, also. I am also inappropriately exuberant about all things Nvidia. Nvidia is a metonym for AI and/or the sixth industrial revolution.
I've now added Broadcom to the disclaimer. I am also inappropriately exuberant about all things Broadcom. Now, I've added Amazon.
Longer version here.

Class 1 Railroads In The US -- May 2, 2026

Comment: It should be noted that when BRK bought BNSF many thought the race for #1 among the class I railroads in this country was between UNP and BNSF, with BNSF often thought to be in the lead. If that's true, how in the world did this happen?

Locator: 50695RAIL.

Query:

BRK CEO Abel said there are six Class 6 railroads in the US. What are the si?. In addition he said BNSF was ranked fith among the six. What was the ranking of the others?

Reply:

2026: The Year the AI Investment Cycle Went Parabolic -- May 2, 2026

Locator: 50694AI.

Link here.

Alles Über Den Haufen Werfen -- May 2, 2026

Locator: 50693AI.

President Trump says he plans to withdraw 5,000 US troops from Germany, currently with 36,000 US military troops spread over 40 installations.

US Army: 22,000
USAF: 13,000 (two air bases)

In an e-mail sidebar with a reader, my thoughts. Two parts:

First part: it's about time. We definitely need the air bases for global operations but the US Army is nothing more than an "arm" of the US State Department. The US Army in Germany, Italy, and Spain is there for diplomatic reasons and for the good of the US military-industrial complex.

But the US military-industrial complex could easily be moved into the Baltics, into Poland, into Ukraine, into Czech, but there is no military need for US Army in Germany except on the margins.

5,000 is "peanuts." To get Germany's attention, Trumps needs to announce a larger withdrawal and be very specific about which US Army posts are no longer needed in Germany. I think by Congressional mandate a certain number of soldiers may be required in Germany, but certainly Congress doesn't mandate site by site. Hegseth would be in charge of that.

Speaking of air bases, we have closed almost every air base in Germany except for a couple. The eastern countries in Europe would welcome the US.

Second part: let's see. We've been in Germany since 1945 -- that's 80+ years. How many presidents? Fourteen.

And we finally have a president in the modern era that not only questions why we still have that many there and who might actually do something about it. It's hard to believe that at the height of the Cold War in 1962, there were 275,000 US troops in Germany.
1962: Cuban missile crisis; and,
1960: CIA U-2 pilot Gary Powers shot down over Turkey.
It's amazing how president after president simply kicked these cans down the road. Of course, the biggest can was allowing Iran to come within weeks (?) of a nuclear weapon and allowing unfettered militarization of Iran during that same period.

Third part: I still maintain this could be part of a deal with Putin to move toward a ceasefire in Ukraine. Along with a guarantee that Ukraine won't become part of Ukraine.

Finally a president alles über den Haufen werfen.

BRK Annual Meeting -- Live Updates -- May 2, 2026

Locator: 50692BRK.

Incredible results; it will be interesting to see how Wall Street reacts Monday.

Results:

Annual meeting.

Link here.

Streaming live. Listening to the new CEO. Greg Abel is 63 years old, and a Canadian businessman. At least that's what his bio says.

Ajit will be seventy-five years old this summer. Vice Chairman of Insurance Operations.

Wow, immediately throws the mic over to Warren Buffett. Two items:

a self-complimentary comment on his picking the CEO
an incredibly long soliloquy on Apple and Steve Jobs; too bad BRK didn't keep adding AAPL over the years; wow, wow, wow, a meandering soliloquy...

Because of an unexpected interruption, I missed some of Abel's comments. I left when he was deep in the weeds with regard to insurance.

I came back when he was discussing BNSF. BNSF was one of six Class 1 railroads in the US, and last year, BNSF was #5 of 6!!! Are you kidding me. With all that expertise from BRK and they were ranked #5 of 6 in profitability. UNP was #1.

Now he's going back to Geico, so it's obvious I didn't miss much.

He just said that BRK needs to be more involved in "tech" and "technology transformation." He's coming across that BRK and subsidiaries were spending too much time thinking about and discussing "technology transformation" and not acting. I am really, really, really disappointed and surprised. He does mention that BRK needs to start making their own technology solutions and not simply buying / renting those technology solutions. Apparently GEICO is in year five of this transformation. One almost gets the feeling BRK as been asleep as the wheel with regard to the fourth (sixth) industrial revolution for the past ten years. I'm not impressed.

Comment: it's my impression, Abel is spending way, way too much time on things that in the big scheme don't matter that much and easily could have been covered in printed media. He needed to talk about his philosophy -- he's new -- and he needs to talk about the elephant in the room: AI. He's thinking like an insurance agent -- risk, risk, risk.

Just like Jamie Dimon thinks like a banker -- risk, risk, risk.

That's not how the folks at Nvidia, AMD, MU think. This is how they think -- opportunity, opportunity, opportunity.

Exhibit A: #2 on his technology transformation considerations -- "safeguards."

#3 -- has to be additive to their business, not just doing AI for AI's sake. Pablum.

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Energy

He is now touching on energy -- pipelines, natural gas, powering LDCs.

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Back to Wildfire Damages

Wildfires in California.

Class action suit -- against PacifiCorp -- apparently being re-visited. Very honest, transparent, but embarrassing.

Great for transparency but not exactly going to move the needle for investors' investments.

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International Metalworking Companies

Again, so much time on stuff that isn't going to move the needle. Link here to IMC. These are just really, really good companies and will be around forever.

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Sales Pitch

Abel had a great sales pitch. I believe BRK's benchmark is the S&P 500, long-term. But it would be more interesting to know which investment -- unless it's the S&P 500 ETF -- BRK is really competing with -- such as SCHB or SCHG. For the investor, in other words, if the investor is looking at SCHB or SCHG would BRK be a better investment?

It's pretty obvious where one should have invested new money this past year if one were to choose between SCHB and BRKB.

SCHB: passively managed; run by computers; algorithms; rules.

BRKB: highly, highly, highly personally be a small human team.

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Has Completed The Business Update
Now The Second Half Of Meeting: the Q&A

But first the Geico video.

Overkill.

Now Q&A.

But they're starting with insurance company in Japan. Already it's way too long. No one cares. Why wasn't this in the first hour. Folks are anxious for Q&A.

Now Cyber Insurance: BRK plays a very, very, very small role. Not a business opportunity.

Now, finally Q&A with Becky Quick as the moderator.

First question: Ajit is skeptical of AI. Oh-oh.

Second question: not even worth discussing.

Will touch on questions by exception.

I will stop here. Very, very mundane.

Saturday Morning Coffee Hour At The Local Deli -- Three "National Economic" Links -- May 2, 2026

Locator: 50691ARCHIVES.

My favorite chart. Link here. Down slightly. Decreased by $11 billion to $7.63 trillion.

Fed target: no longer useful. Link here. Getting ready for the new Fed chair. I never thought the "price-of-eggs-and-used-cars" should have been part of the equation. The price-of-eggs everyone understands; I've seen no one explain the price-of-used-cars. But isn't it amazing how the price of used cars has dropped since Trump has come into office? Everybody knows the Fed target would never be reached. The question is whether the Fed had another "wink-wink" target?

For the 25-year-old, an inflation rate of 4% vs 2% over time might be a real disaster, I don't know, but for the 75-year-old with stable housing costs (not yet in a nursing home) and seeing huge returns in investments and huge COLAs for Social Secuirty -- a high inflation target might be just what the doctor ordered. I don't know. That's why this is called "Saturday morning coffee hour at the local deli." My military pension is tied to the inflation rate and I've not been disappointed over the past twenty years.

Personal savings rate: this is interesting. Link here. Below the one-year graph. The three-year graph looks hideous. What is included in "personal savings"? It might surprise you. It always surprises me when I see the list.

To clear up one item, since a lot of folks consider a home part of their savings:

The official personal savings rate, as calculated by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA), does not include money spent on homes and automobiles. It is defined as the percentage of disposable personal income that households do not spend on consumer goods and services, often regarded as income remaining after taxes and expense.

Again:

Purchasing a home or car does not directly increase the personal savings rate. It is calculated as disposable income minus spending; major purchases are treated as consumption or debt payments, not savings. While they increase net worth, only cash, investments, and principal repayments typically count as savings in this formula.

So, for all we know, people are cutting back on savings and investments to buy expensive houses and expensive cars.

So, perhaps a decline in the personal savings rate is very, very good for the economy, and over time, inflation will work in favor or those who are buying "expensive" homes and autos now. Buy now, and they won't need to be bought in the future.

Net worth. I find the average net worth of Americans not including real property much more interesting. Link here. This is CNBC data derived from government data; one may want to search source data.

Now, think about this: Does average net worth include monthly payment from pension plans, Social Security, RMDs from IRAs, etc?

No, standard average net worth calculations do not include monthly income streams like Social Security or pension payments. Net worth measures accumulated assets minus liabilities, while pensions and Social Security are considered income, not capital. RMDs (Required Minimum Distributions) from IRAs are included, but only as part of the total IRA balance.
In other words, "net worth" as defined by the US government significantly underestimates the net worth of those over 65 years of age. In addition, Medicare premiums for seniors can be significant for those in upper income brackets, but in general, seniors should ave significantly less out-of-pocket medical costs than working families under the age of 65.
A retired postal clerk with Medicare, pension, RMDs from TSP, RMDs from other IRAs, could be doing a whole lot better than the chart above might imply.
I think it would interesting to see an analysis explaining why net worth decreases after age 74. That's counterintuitive but the quick answer will be long-term nursing care.

Car expenses as one ages. LOL. Those expenses practically disappear. My most recent numbers are posted here. I drive a 2012 Honda Civic bought in 2011:

the car was paid off years ago; no monthly payments for years; it was probably paid off in 2016, ten years ago;
insurance costs on a car this old are relatively trivial compared to a new car
solid brand: almost no maintenance costs; only maintenance cost this year, a new tail light, driver's side; annual inspection -- maybe a new battery every three years; oil change; miscellaneous stuff;
I re-fill the gasoline tank on average once a month; I have gone as long as 90 days between fill-ups
every 30 days I pay about $30; it will be higher this month;

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Speaking of Gasoline Prices

I generally don't include my wife's gasoline expenses / mileage. I just worry about myself, but I think this is interesting and tells a story.

We finally had to donate to charity her perfectly-good-running Chrysler minivan this past year -- a 2005 model -- it couldn't pass Texas inspection due to a broken sensor — a replacement was no longer available -- not even on the secondary market --- we drove it for five years (maybe longer, I forget) without getting it registered because it wouldn't pass inspection. But it was in perfect shape otherwise, including a body that looked brand new. But even if it would have passed inspection, after 21 years of the same car, my wife really, really wanted a new car. So last year she got a new car which she absolutely loves.

She paid for the car in cash, something she (we) had never done before which goes back to my discussion above regarding the net worth of those over 74 years of age. Both of us are over the age of 74. Right now, our combined ages = 150 years of age.

So, here's her mileage. I don't always get the exact data from my wife, but the last several data points seem to be accurate -- she pays in cash, not a credit card, so, for example, she gives the attendant the amount of cash she thinks it will take to fill the thank, and sometimes gives the attendant slightly more than the actual amount.

Most surprising to me: the jump in improved mileage and the significant decline in cost-per-mile despite the price of gasoline going up significantly over the last few days.

The story here: the price of gasoline is important. But more important is one's driving habits.

My wife's cost per mile was 12 cents vs 20 cents last month despite the increased cost of gasoline. Yes, I know. She probably didn’t completely fill the tank.