A Deep Look At Eric Nuttal's Post Over At x -- November 13, 2025

Locator: 49413CVX. 

Tag: Chevron 

Take a look at this energy supply / demand discussion with Eric Nuttall and ChatGPT (at this link but also down below so one doesn't have to leave this site).

ChatGPT then, at my request, provided two charts comparing CAPEX vs shareholder return.

Thought experiment: 

• let's assume all operators were similar to CVX with regard to Capex and shareholder return; not a bad assumption -- see historic price of oil (farther down)
• shareholder return spiked three years in 2023 but increased significantly starting in 2021
• one interpretation: seed corn decreased in years between 2015 - 2020 due to "green" policies, fear-mongering, and bad, bad IEA forecasting
• seed corn decrease resulted in relative shortages of oil three years later leading to increased prices of oil leading to huge investor returns

Now:

• CVX says it will now focus on shareholder return, not more drilling, not increased Capex
• is CVX looking back at 2015 - 2020 with regard to Capex and shareholder return three to eight years later?
• is it possible we will see similar shareholder returns three to eight years from now (starting in 2028)?
• by the way, in 2028, the acquisition costs of Guyana will largely be behind Chevron 

Here's an analysis of the historic price of oil:

By the way, what was the reason for the surge in CVX capex in 2023 -- clearly an outlier:
not due to Guyana:

• due to CVX's massive focus on ramping up the Permian and focus on megaprojects outside the Permian (not including Guyana)
• from ChatGPT:

Lots and lots of data here and I'm not good at articulating the whole story, but it certainly raises the question whether investors might do well with CVX now? Note the blog's disclaimer.

By the way: take a look at coal in the graphic in Eric Nuttall's graphic above (and below): whether its STEPS or CPS, the demand for coal is going to fall precipitously between now and 2050. At least that's one thing "everyone" seems to agree upon. The graphs are hard to interpret, but it all looks b 2025, oil is going to be the bigger contributor to investor returns than natural gas. And oil is basically transportation -- so what's this all about?

********************************************
If Supply Is Unable To Keep Up With Demand,
It Will Be Due To Past Polices  

From an earlier post.

Energy projections: I really have no idea what this means. Link here. 

AI prompt: 

An analyst wrote:

"Devastatingly to sentiment, the IEA told us for nearly 5 years that peak oil demand was imminent. 

Today, they admit under their base scenario that oil demand will grow to at least 2050! 

Too late/damage done: "the fear of peak demand is leading to the reality of peak supply." 

What does he mean that "peak demand is leading to the reality of peak supply"? Does it simply mean that the oil companies can't keep up to increasing demand? ChatGPT's reply was interesting, as always. 

In short:

• “Peak demand” was supposed to protect us from oil scarcity.Instead, fear of it caused underinvestment, which now risks actual scarcity.
• That’s why the analyst calls it “devastating to sentiment”:
• markets and policymakers relied on a forecast that discouraged production —and now they face the opposite problem.
• oil companies can’t keep up with increasing demand.
• But more precisely, they won’t be able to because earlier policy and investor pressure — based on the belief in “peak demand” — discouraged the very investments needed to sustain future supply.

*************************************

Disclaimer

Brief Reminder

Briefly:

• I am inappropriately exuberant about the Bakken and I am often well out front of my headlights. I am often appropriately accused of hyperbole when it comes to the Bakken.
• I am inappropriately exuberant about the US economy and the US market.
• I am also inappropriately exuberant about all things Apple. 
• See disclaimer. This is not an investment site. 
• Disclaimer: this is not an investment site. Do not make any investment, financial, job, career, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here. 
• All my posts are done quickly: there will be content and typographical errors. If something appears wrong, it probably is. Feel free to fact check everything.
• If anything on any of my posts is important to you, go to the source. If/when I find typographical / content errors, I will correct them. 
• Many posts are not proofread for several days after they've been posted.  
• Reminder: I am inappropriately exuberant about the Bakken, US economy, and the US market.
• I am also inappropriately exuberant about all things Apple. 
• And now, Nvidia, also. I am also inappropriately exuberant about all things Nvidia. Nvidia is a metonym for AI and/or the sixth industrial revolution.
• I've now added Broadcom to the disclaimer. I am also inappropriately exuberant about all things Broadcom.
• And Oracle. 
• Longer version here.

For The Archives -- I'm Lovin' It -- oilprice.com -- April 25, 2025

Locator: 48520WIND.

This is for the archives. Everyone of my readers has seen this story. If not, they're not paying attention. LOL.

Lede: 

Germany's RWE just pulled the plug on its U.S. offshore wind business.

Quietly. No fireworks, no headlines about thousands of turbines scrapped—just a dry admission that it's "halting activities" in American waters.

For one of Europe’s biggest green energy giants to walk away from a market as large as the U.S., in the middle of an energy transition no less, is not just a business decision.

It’s a red flag.

The exit—confirmed by a speech manuscript published ahead of a yet-to-be-delivered speech by the company’s CEO—comes as RWE rethinks where and how it deploys capital. In March, the company slashed $11 billion off its low-carbon investment plan, citing rising costs, hostile regulatory environments, and a spike in its required return on investment from 8% to 8.5%. In other words: too risky, too expensive, too slow. [Sounds like the US oil sector, under Biden, Kerry, Pocahontas, and many others.]

RWE's CEO, Markus Krebber, had already warned last fall that Trump’s return to power could delay or derail projects on the U.S. East Coast. Now, the company is making that pivot official. All U.S. offshore wind operations are paused—indefinitely—and RWE will instead chase safer, more lucrative projects in places like Germany, where it just broke ground on a new 22.8-MW onshore wind farm.

Blaming the failure of an inefficient business plan on Trump. So, what else is new?

*************************
Meanwhile

Link here.

Again, for the archives, my readers have already seen this story.

The New XTO Athena Wells And The Bakken -- April12, 2025

L

From a reader, thank you very much. A little bit of history prompted by recent posting of the XTO Athena permits. See below the fold.

From the reader: 

The new XTO Athena drill sites (3-154-96) are located in the same section as two of North Dakota's earliest attempts to find oil.

The Big Viking well was started in 1928 about 500 feet south of the new XTO Athena sites.

The California Company Nels Kamp #1, was a 1938 attempt was just a few hundred feet north of these new XTO locations.

The Big Viking well only drilled to 4600 feet.

The Nels Kamp well was the first legitimate drilling attempt in North Dakota. It went to 10,200 feet, through the Bakken and Three Forks zones but did not detect any oil or gas shows. The test was abandoned after drill pipe became stuck in the hole.

Twelve years later, Amerada began drilling the Clarence Iverson discovery well a few miles northeast of the Kamp location.

On April 5, 1951 [the year the blog author was born] commercial oil production began from the Devonian formation.

Several months later, Amerada found oil in the Madison formation at the Henry Bakken well just north of Tioga. It was a geologist at this well that is credited with "naming" the Bakken zone when drilling through this section of rock.

Previously some geologists had called this formation the Engelwood after a similar formation in Canada. The Bakken name stuck!

What I find most amazing about this, is with very limited information, geologists "predicted" oil in this part of the world. Simply amazing. And, again, since 1951 --- 74 years of productive drilling in North Dakota.

Of the five parameters geologists key in with regard to production ( maturity, porosity, permeability, trapping, TOC, thickness), I would argue TOC is the most important ... well, let me backtrack. 

Of course maturity is the most important. But all things being equal, the importance of those parameters varies depending on whether the well is conventional (vertical, trapped pool) or unconventional (horizontal, shale). 

With a trapped pool, trapping and thickness are most important. I wouldn't think maturity would be that important, again, all else being equal.

However, with an unconventional well, there's another factor a lot of folks don't mention (actually two factors): the skill of the driller -- keeping the horizontal bore in the seam for two to three miles; and the "method" of completion / fracking / stimulation (the amount of proppant; the type of proppant).

With unconventional drilling these importance of the various factors, in descending order: keeping the horizontal bore in the seam; amount of proppant used in fracking; and TOC. Early on in the Bakken, there was a lot of emphasis on the type of proppant (sand versus ceramics). Over time that argument seemed to fade, as economics took over (sand, cheap; ceramics, expensive) (sand, relatively abundant; ceramics, constrained).  

Another interesting phenomenon, the Hubbert Peak Theory seems to apply to conventional drilling, but does not apply at all to unconventional drilling. In conventional drilling, once a well or a field or a basin starts to deplete, it does not recover. Completely the opposite with regard to unconventional drilling. Of course, depletion becomes a factor in unconventional drilling at some point, but re-fracking, new fracking, and improved fracking techniques will reverse a depleting trend. [By the way, never discussed -- this fact has been used by operators to their advantage with regard to tax policy, specifially the depletion allowance and designation of stripper wells.]

***********************************
Athena Wells
Multiple Operators Have "Athena" Wells
Multiple Oil Fields In The Williston Basin

From April 11, 2025, link here. Six new permits, #41799 - #41804, inclusive:

• Operator: XTO
• Field: Grinnell (Williams County)
• Comments:
• XTO has permits for six GBU Athena wells, lot 2, section 3-154-96, 
• to be sited 1109 FNL and 2240 / 2390 FEL.

Do not confuse with other "Athena" wells.

From February 7, 2020, link here:

• 22168, 358, Slawson, Athena 5-36TFH, Alger, t4/12; cum 11K 5/12; 15 stages; no ceramics mentioned; cum 157K 2/25; F;
  

From July 25, 2012, link here:

• 21408, 700, Slawson, Athena 2-36H, Alger, t4/12; cum 33K 5/12; sand frac; I did not see ceramics listed; cum 281K 2/25; F;
  

Others:

• 34841, 1,012, Enerplus, Athena 149-93-33C-28H-TF, Mandaree, t6/19; cum 57K 10/19; 17K/month; cum 237K 2/25;
  
• 22164, 693, Slawson, Athena 3-36H, Alger, 11/12; cum 13K 1/13; cum 200K 2/25; F;
  
• 18712, 1,391, Slawson,  SESW 36-155N-92W, Athena 1-36H, Alger, s6/11; F; t8/11; cum 219K 8/14; cum 335K 2/25; F;
  

Global Electricity Review -- 2024

Locator: 48442ENERGYGLOBAL.

Sixth Industrial Revolution (SIR) now has its own page. 

When reading this, put this in perspective:

• the sixth industrial revolution;
• what Trump sees;
• the LDC story is an energy story;
• the gap between the US and the EU continues to widen

Must-read. Archive. The full report is here and can be downloaded as a PDF: 118 pages.

The languages available, in this order:

• Turkish, Spanish, Japanese, Indonesian, Arabic, Portuguese, and Korean.

Global electricity review. Ember, link here. 

Electrek's version of the story.

Solar has doubled in just three years, providing more than 2,000 TWh of electricity in 2024. Wind generation also grew to 8.1% of global electricity, while hydro – the single largest renewable source – remained steady at 14% of global electricity.

“Solar power has become the engine of the global energy transition,” said Phil MacDonald, Ember’s managing director. “Paired with battery storage, solar is set to be an unstoppable force. As the fastest-growing and largest source of new electricity, it is critical in meeting the world’s ever-increasing demand for electricity.”

Folks may want to find out how much battery storage the US has. 

Chapter 1: 2024 in review -- record rise in renewables pushes clean power generation above 50% of global electricity --

Record renewables growth helped push clean power to a new milestone. However, heatwaves contributed to high growth in electricity demand, which resulted in a small increase in fossil generation.

But wow, one has to read it closely to see the Real Story! Actually two stories. And both stories buried.

The first story: global electricity demand grows at the third-highest level in the last decade. And that's before the LDCs start to come into play. 

The second story: the world's three largest power consumers -- China, India, and the US -- saw an increase in fossil generation in 2024, while the world's fourth largest, the EU saw a decline.

But, to repeat: the EU saw a decline.

Global Electricity Review -- 2024

Locator: 48441ENERGYGLOBAL.

Must-read. Archive. The full report is here and can be downloaded as a PDF: 118 pages.

The languages available, in this order:

• Turkish, Spanish, Japanese, Indonesian, Arabic, Portuguese, and Korean.

Global electricity review. Ember, link here.  

Chapter 1: 2024 in review -- record rise in renewables pushes clean power generation above 50% of global electricity --

Record renewables growth helped push clean power to a new milestone. However, heatwaves contributed to high growth in electricity demand, which resulted in a small increase in fossil generation.

But wow, one has to read it closely to see the Real Story! Actually two stories. And both stories buried.

The first story: global electricity demand grows at the third-highest level in the last decade. And that's before the LDCs start to come into play. 

The second story: the world's three largest power consumers -- China, India, and the US -- saw an increase in fossil generation in 2024, while the world's fourth largest, the EU saw a decline.

But, to repeat: the EU saw a decline.

How The Trade Imbalance -- Tariff Story -- Plays Out -- Not Ready For Prime Time -- Monday, April 7, 2025

Locator: 48437ARCHIVES.

Not ready for prime time.

This is how the tariff story plays out:

• lots of rhetoric; lots of sabre-rattling;
• for reasons I do not understand, the big story seems to revolve around AI, huge data centers, and blades -- which, if accurate -- is a story about energy -- particularly natural gas
  
• the gap between the US and the rest of the world with regard to AI will only widen
• these large data centers use so much energy and the rest of the world simply doesn't have it
• as hard as the US equity market is getting hit, the rest of the world is in a much worse place ...
• the Chinese billionaires will feel it first and Xi was already on "borrowed time" with regard to the billionaires
• if this goes badly, Xi could be out, and that would allow new leaders to save face by working with Trump on tariffs
  
• elected leaders in EU, UK already getting an earful from their voters
• China, most of the rest of the world (the part of the world that counts) -- the economy of non-US countries survive only because of the trade imbalance
• the leaders of every country know that -- the trade imbalance and what it means to their economy
• it's now a race -- and the story is not yet being told -- but it's now a race among every country to protect its trade (with or without a trade imbalance)
  
• four major sectors: China, Asia (excl China), EU, UK
• it's like March Madness
• the top four picks coming out of the top 16:
• China (#1) vs Asia ex China (#1) in the east bracket
• EU (#1) vs UK (#1) in the west bracket
• small Asian countries are more nimble, and able to move more quickly and to force China's hands, Trump will offer deals to Asia ex China before offering deals to China
  
• Asia excl China comes out ahead
• the EU, heavy with regulators and way too slow to react with a dozen of competing countries, will lose to UK with regard to Trump making first / early deals
• the race:
• in the east, Vietnam (Asia excl China) gets a "push" from Trump
  
• in the west, UK gets a "push" from Trump
• oh, by the way, the UK was the first to suggest this very possibility -- one story over the weekend;
• and this is it: once one country gets a deal with Trump, the dominoes fall fast
• this is the risk for every country: which country is left holding the bag -- that is, the last country to see tariffs dropped.
• again, every country is going to do what they can to protect their trade advantage
• if UK gets the edge in the west, the EU will follow quickly
• if the EU starts to show signs of life, Asia / China will start to go wobbly
• Asia excl China will move quickly to drop tariff rates, and their rates are so high they can afford to come down significantly and still hold a positive trade imbalance
• the art of the deal: 
• Trump starts out big and then comes down in price ... 
• likewise, he and Musk talk about "a trillion dollars" in trade imbalance. Even if they get half that, they will be happy -- that's the short term. 
• in the long term, politically, Trump and Musk can point to all the chip factories, LDCs, auto manufacturers, etc., coming back to the states.

The "tipping point" to all this: the first country to make a deal with Trump.

It's going to be the UK.

Who gets left holding the bag: China or the EU?

****************************
Parting Thoughts

Does any county in the world (outside of the US) have a "Fed" that can goose their economy? I know the EU has a lot of regulators to slow their economies.

There has been some discussion that car-buyers in the US have been out in large numbers the past two weekends to take advantage of existing prices before tariffs go into effect.

Imagine what happens -- especially in the housing market -- if the Fed cuts rates.

The Fed:

• a lot of folks think the Fed is already behind the curve
• several months ago, the Fed was asked point-blank if they were considering possible Trump policies
• JPow's answer: they didn't deal with hypotheticals; IIRC the first replies with regard to the tariffs, the Fed said they were not modeling tariffs in their projections and then gave a litany of reasons -- mostly they didn't have the models in the first place
• last month, the Fed said they were now following the tariff story -- and again that was before anything was announced -- I would call that "anxiety"
• to me, this has all the earmarks of piss-poor planning. 

**************************
What's Not On Today's Radar Scope

The stories not getting much air time today:

• the war in Europe
• events in the Mideast
• deportations
• Hegseth's security debacle
• measles outbreak
  

Out of sight, out of mind --> opportunities:

• how will Putin play this opportunity in Ukraine?
• how will Israel/Trump play this opportunity with regard to Iran
• at some point, Israel/Trump need to stop the source of the Houthi munitions
• deportations: actual numbers no long matter; "quality" vs "quantity"
• college agitators will take a low profile
• Trump administration voids "all" Sudanese visas -- affects 300,000 Sudanese in the US
• other agitators will get the message
• University of Southern California: #1 source of foreign students -- China?

• China cannot afford to have all their US students return to China.
• for many, many reasons
• least of all: access to technology
  
• Trump holds another "trump" card (pun intended)
• so what's Hegseth up to? Headed to Panama. 
• and RFK, Jr? Headed to Texas / New Mexico -- stresses importance of vaccines.
• deaths doubled over the weekend; went from one to two
  

The stories not getting much air time today: the difference between Trump and Biden --

• work
• one was asleep (or worse) for four years; was incredibly, in hindsight, inactive
  
• one is active 24/7
• outlook
• one had a "sorry" outlook on life
• one is optimistic and holds an "America-first" outlook
• staff
• Trumphas some really, really, really bright people working for him
• yes, and some really dumb folks and some really bad ideas, but that's true of all administrations; that's how politics work
• most interesting: with all that's going on, the press attempt to make Trump's weekend of golf a story did not work; I saw the story once and had to look for it
• tonight: all attention on NCAA men's basketball championship
  

Overwhelmed -- Not Ready For Prime Time -- February 5, 2025

Locator: 48483ARCHIVES.

Be sure to review the disclaimer if you are reading the blog.

I am absolutely overwhelmed -- way too much to cover. 

Not sure how to handle this.

I may have to take a break (six to twelve hours); listen to some music; chill.

Or just give up completely. LOL. 

The other option is to post "incomplete memos" on the blog and come back later and complete them, I don't know.

These are the stories that need lots of attention.  Note: because of the volatility of the market, I am not blogging much about the market. If I do blog about investing it will be do to something that readers have sent me or something that I just happened to see.

Again, these are the stories that need lots of attention.

House of cards about to fall: global warming; climate change; the grid; expensive electricity; EVs.

Re-posting:

• Geo-politics: I have never been more excited than I am now about the current state of geo-politics.
• Gaza: pending. This is incredibly interesting. One can easily how Trump views this; one can easily see how the journalists completely miss how Trump's mind works.
  
• Ukraine: pending.
• Norway: pending.
• Trump appointees: pending.
• most interesting: RFK, Jr -- if he is approved,  things are not going to play out like "we" all expect; and, I think Trump knows that; and, again Trump will be following the Eisenhower principle -- see below
  
• DEI is dead: exhibit A -- google announced today, that going forward, it will only hire the best and the brightest regardless of an applicant's immutable features. It's hard to believe it took "a Trump" to make that happen. 
• Elon Musk, DOGE, and AI: FAA next. 
• renewable energy: the house of cards is about to fall; huge opportunity for investors (traders and investors, for that matter) 
• Europe is in deep doo-doo and it seems no one knows that; when it hits, it will hit fast
  

The American Airlines -- US Army Blackhawk:

• the story has disappeared; reminder: occurred on January 29, 2025
• the NTSB will announced preliminary findings at 30 days (February 28, 2025 = Friday; 30 days will happen on the weekend; likely the 30-day preliminary finding will occur during the week of March 3, 2025).
• my hunch: mostly aviation jargon; mostly covering the rules, regulations; very little will actually be mentioned about the immediate cause of the crash; everything possible will be done to obfuscate the obvious.
• so much misinformation out there: the biggest? The magnitude of this disaster. CNN says this is the worst since 2001. In fact, CNN is wrong. This is the worst since 1968 -- that's 57 years ago. It depends how one measures "the worst," but trust me, this is the worst since 1968. 
  

Gaza:

• do folks remember this: https://theconversation.com/assads-fall-opens-window-for-syrian-refugees-to-head-home-but-for-many-it-wont-be-an-easy-decision-247051?
• in the month of Assad's fall, 125,000 Syrians returned to Syria -- from Turkey, Lebanon, and Jordan
• how many Syrians fled Syria under Assad (since 2011)? more than six million
  
• do folks remember what happened when the Berlin Wall fell?
• do folks know who controls the border between Egypt and Gaza?
• do folks know who used to "own" Gaza?
• do folks know the ethnicity of 99% of all folks living in Gaza?
• Trump is the smartest politician in the room; one may hate him or hate his actions but that doesn't mean he's not smart. On Gaza he knows exactly what he's talking about. Political leaders in Egypt have every "right" to be terrified if they're following Trump's actions on the US southern border.
• if one can't connect the dots now, well, what can I say?
• I know exactly what Trump was thinking when he alluded to "boots on the ground" -- yeah, those comments, the comments his White House staff had to walk back.
• the discussion is not over, not be a long shot.
• Later, February 6, 2025: finally, Israel  / US holding Europeans accountable -- link here. 
• finally, something different
• region and Europe are terrified
• brilliant
• just wait until "they" open the border to Egypt; after all, 99.99% Gazans are Egyptian.
  

Having said that, the big winner in most recent meeting between Netanyahu and Trump? Israel.

• it's very clear Trump made it very clear, he will do whatever it takes to protect Israel
• both Biden and Kamala were a bit ambivalent with regard to Israel; Trump may be a lot of things, but one thing he is not, is ambivalent;
• Israelis can sleep well tonight after Netanyahu's visit with Trump.

Please read the blog's disclaimer.

I'm not done yet on Gaza: one last thought - "the Eisenhower principle." Link here.

*************************
Britain

Headline without comment:

*************************************
California

Just how bad are things in California? I think that will end up being one of the biggest stories this year -- to what degree will California need a bailout of historic proportions. 

Much, much more, but need to take a break.

Read the disclaimer.

FEMA -- January 27, 2025

Locator: 48404FEMA.

From Bloomberg today:

It’s still unknown who Trump will task with running and possibly reshaping FEMA.

For now, the president has tapped Cameron Hamilton, a former Navy Seal, to temporarily lead the agency, alongside Mary Comans, who has held several key FEMA jobs. Hamilton has some emergency management experience, but he has never overseen the response to large-scale disasters like the wildfires that have ravaged Los Angeles for weeks, destroying more than 15,000 structures and killing at least 28 people.

In fact, over the weekend Trump signed an executive order establishing a "Council" to be led by the Secretary of Defense and the Secretary of Homeland Security to "assess FEMA." From the EO:

The Secretary of Homeland Security and the Secretary of Defense shall serve as Co-Chairs of the Council.

So, I guess we have the one-two punch. Hamilton and Comans in charge of FEMA right now. [Does that mean that FEMA Administrator Deanne Criswell is "out" as the administrator? Yes.]

And Pete Hegseth and Kristi Noem to head the "council."

You know you are in trouble when a government agency's administrator's bio starts out with where the individual went to elementary school:

Criswell attended elementary school in Free Soil, Michigan and was graduated in 1984 from Catholic Central High School in Manistee, Michigan. She then earned a Bachelor of Science in technology education from Colorado State University, a Master of Public Administration from the University of Colorado Denver, and a Master of Arts in homeland security from the Naval Postgraduate School.

Her skill set: fighting fires as a firewoman.

Bloomberg has a long piece -- I would say it's a op-ed and not news -- about how challenging FEMA's job is and then blames much of FEMA's problem on .... climate change. Al Gore first warned us about climate change in 1994 or thereabouts ... so how much has the global temperature changed in 31 years? Fact check: 2025 - 1994 = 31 years.

And that figure assumes the US government is reliable when measuring global temperatures. But 0.2°C over 31 years and that's a significant reason why FEMA's job has been made more difficult? LOL. How about better technology, less regulation, better leadership just for starts.

Wow, this gets tedious. Climate change. 

By the way, here in Texas the weather folks give us the temperature rounded to the nearest "one degree," such as 74° or 68° or 92°. They've never given the daily temperature to the nearest tenth (98.5° or 78.3°). And even in medicine, we never gave temperatures to the nearest 100th but when it comes to global / climate warming, we're getting the degree change to the 100th degree (see above: 0.36°) -- such preciseness provides a false sense of accuracy. LOL.

So, we're back to "councils" and "commissions" and "committees" -- I hope this doesn't "foreshadow" a Biden-like administration. Hopefully Cameron Hamilton will appoint a FEMA California czar to monitor the money the US government sends to California and that it reaches the right people sooner than later. I would start with Altadena. I think Newsom will take good care of Pacific Palisades.

****************************
Recipes

Cooking tips.

It appears the key to great cooking? Bacon. 

Link here.

A long, slow cook time — roasting, braising and leisurely poaching— is a simple way to marry contrasting ingredients. This works especially well in recipes that can be prepared ahead of time. Stored for a night or two in the refrigerator, their flavors meld and mellow together.

Classic examples are the slowly cooked pulled pork or the long-simmered pot of chili.

But long and slow simmering also works nicely with root vegetables — especially carrots, parsnips and beets. When poached in a tasty liquid, they become tender and absorb the flavors of the cooking medium. Finally, it’s always a good idea to keep a few store-bought condiments at the ready, including chili oil, curry paste, good vinegar and extra-virgin olive oil, canned anchovies, olives and capers.

Tips:

• when making a soup or stew, begin by sizzling in a little pancetta, bacon or crumbled sausage with the aromatic onions and garlic before adding the remaining ingredients to bolster flavor and body
• add a splash of acid — wine, vinegar, lemon or lime juice — to soups and stews at the last minute. Start slowly, taste, then taste again
• swirl a glug of good olive oil or a few pats of butter into a soup or stew as it comes from the stove to enhance its richness
• shower shredded Parmesan or crumbled feta over pasta, soups, stews and rice dishes to enhance texture
• flavors pale in the refrigerator over time. Season dishes right after reheating, then taste and adjust and taste again
• give dishes of fish, chicken and pork an umami kick with a few chopped anchovies, capers or green or black olives
• miso, when whisked into butter, adds a mysterious, salty, rich touch. Keep it on hand to lift up vegetables, potatoes, pasta and chicken
• good quality frozen vegetables have more flavor and nutrients than their winter-weary fresh counterparts
• toast whole spices such as cumin, coriander, cardamom and fennel, then grind for the most intense taste
• a pinch of red pepper flakes kicks everything up a notch.

Colombia: For The Archives -- January 27, 2025

Locator: 48403COLOMBIA.

Tag: recession.

Media: Fox News broke the story on Colombia first.  

The New York Times didn't report the story until several hours later.

The story broke just before the Kansas City Chiefs took the field; Fox News appeared to be the first major news outlet that reported the story.

About a half hour later The NYT reported the story -- the story that Colombia was standing up to Trump.

By the end of the game -- the Chiefs won, 32 - 29 -- Colombia had backed off; Trump won.

Fox News reported it immediately; perhaps even before it was confirmed by a second source.

Incredibly -- well, maybe not so incredibly -- The New York Times did not mention that Colombia had backed off until several hours later, and all TNYT did was change the headline. The NYT story linked to the headline remained the same, except a paragraph was added deep inside the story mentioning in passing that Colombia had backed down.

Recession: 

This is really, really cool.

Finally, I can agree with all of those folks predicting a recession for the past four years. We're finally going to see it. It? A recession.

Well, at least we're going to start hearing the word "recession" this week, and, of course, "sticky inflation," which has never gone away.

The US won't actually have a recession this year -- if recession is defined by two consecutive quarters of negative growth -- a negative GDP -- as with a "minus sign" in front of "1% GDP," for example.

But we will have a marked decrease in GDP.

GDPNow was forecasting a wonderful 3% GDP for Biden's last quarter. By the end of the year, GDPNow will be forecasting a 1% GDP growth -- that's not negative but going from 3% to 1% is going to feel like a recession. Price of eggs? Don't even get me started. 

The market is ready to sell off; it already has in some sectors. We're going to be told it's all about the Chinese LLM DeepSeek. Okay. But what really got the market spooked over the weekend was the tariff story.

It looks like Trump is serious.

It looks like Trump is sticking to his 25% tariffs on Mexico and Canada. His advisors (and he himself) may want tariffs delayed until we see what Mexico and Canada will do with regard to cross-border fentanyl and human trafficking but in the big scheme of things, that's just the flag leading the troops. Fentanyl and human trafficking are the flags leading this "economic war." Does anyone really think the guy who wrote the book on "the art of the deal" is really worried about fentanyl and human trafficking?

The real story is exactly what Trump has been saying for years: he's tired of jobs going to Mexico and he's tired of the trade imbalance with Canada, especially when it comes to cars.

We had three hours of "high anxiety" yesterday when Trump slapped 25% tariffs on Colombia -- say what? Colombia? I can't even identify where Colombia is on a South American map -- I know it's near Central America -- I think it's to the left of Venezuela (politically as well as geographically) — it may be the last SA country bordering Central America -- where the soon-to-be-US-owned Panama Canal is -- going north from the rest of the banana republics -- but a trade war with Colombia? Wow, I hope folks can "diagram" that sentence. 

Colombia shot back with 50% tariffs on coffee and flowers.

That's what really spooked investors. Traders weren't spooked. They love this. Buy low, sell high. But I digress.

Back to tariffs.

AOC made it really, really, really worse and really, really, really scary for investors when she said that tariffs on Colombia would increase the cost of coffee at Starbucks and .... drum roll .... the cost of flowers. Wedding season is coming up in June. [One day later, Starbucks reported a great quarter. I have not heard how Dutch tulips are doing.]

The tariffs on Colombia may still be in place -- that was a bit hazy by the end of Trump's round of golf early Sunday evening. I can't make this up. On the third hole Trump got word that Colombia would not allow US military a/c to land in his country carrying hard-working Colombians back to their home country; by the eighth hole the Colombian president said he would send his own "presidential" plane to America to pick up the outcasts -- what was I saying?

Oh, yes, the tariffs on Colombia may still be in place, that was a bit hazy last evening -- SecState Rubio will sort that out this morning, I'm sure -- but to traders and investors that was just a foreshadowing -- my favorite word used in college literature courses -- no, not a foreshadowing of what 25% tariffs on Canada or Mexico would do -- no one really knows what that would do to Canada (I guess Trudeau knows -- that's why he stepped down) -- but the fact that Trump had tariffs on Colombia in less than a New York minute told traders, investors, Xi, Trudeau, and anyone else who was listening now know that he's serious. If Trump wakes up on February 1, 2025, on the bad side of bed: wham! 25% tariffs on Canada. 25% tariffs on Mexico. Add 10% more on Chinese tariffs.

So far he's kept all his campaign promises, except the one about ending the war in Europe, but Putin is eager to talk and Zelenskyy knows he's on borrowed time. The last of Biden's money will run out by the end of the month. By the way, Putin and Trump are up to something big -- really, really big -- and Denmark is worried that Greenland might be collateral damage. LOL.

So, from DeepSeek to Greenland, that's where we are today.

**********************************
Disclaimer
Brief Reminder 

• I am inappropriately exuberant about the Bakken and I am often well out front of my headlights. I am often appropriately accused of hyperbole when it comes to the Bakken.
  
• I am inappropriately exuberant about the US economy and the US market.
• I am also inappropriately exuberant about all things Apple. 
• See disclaimer. This is not an investment site. 
• Disclaimer: this is not an investment site. Do not make any investment, financial, job, career, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here. All my posts are done quickly: there will be content and typographical errors. If something appears wrong, it probably is. Feel free to fact check everything.
  
• If anything on any of my posts is important to you, go to the source. If/when I find typographical / content errors, I will correct them. 
• Reminder: I am inappropriately exuberant about the Bakken, US economy, and the US market.
• I am also inappropriately exuberant about all things Apple. 
• And now, Nvidia, also. I am also inappropriately exuberant about all things Nvidia. Nvidia is a metonym for AI and/or the sixth industrial revolution.
• I've now added Broadcom to the disclaimer. I am also inappropriately exuberant about all things Broadcom.
• Longer version here.   
  

******************
Monday Reading 

I'm finally getting around to reading some back-issues of The New Yorker. I'm starting with a very recent one, but not the current issue; the one I'm reading is dated January 20, 2025. 

I see I've completed the crossword puzzle, described as "moderately challenging," so there's that.

The opening essay -- always political -- is always a must-read. 

This one, again,in the January 20, 2025, issue, is as good as it gets. Really, really good writing. 

David Remnick on Trump. 

Every bad thing that could be said about Trump was said in this one-and-a-half page essay on The Donald. LOL.

My favorite paragraph:

[Trump] will return to the Oval Office with a résumé enhanced by two impeachments, one judgment of liability for sexual abuse, and a plump cluster of felony convictions. He will take the oath of office next week at the scene of his gravest transgression, his incitement of an insurrection on Capitol Hill. 

And with all of that, Trump still defeated Kamala Harris and a war chest of more than one billion dollars and the army of mainstream media, stalwarts of legitimacy, credibility, and fact-checking.

And there's now talk that Ms Harris might run for president again. Okay.

**************

Wow, this is really, really sad. The second essay was on the southern California fires, at the time of the essay, just beginning. I don't think the writer had any idea how bad it would get and it was already really, really bad when he was writing his essay. 

This is truly amazing.

All the water in the world would not have solved the problem -- even with all the water in the world, the brush has never been cleared adequately in decades; no roads up and down the valleys for fire trucks; the fire department's budget had been underfunded for decades, and so on -- but it did not help when the hydrants had no water pressure. It turns out that one of three -- yes, one of three -- water reservoirs for the sole purpose of fighting fires had not been filled for years. The mayor made it sound like the reservoir had recently been emptied for repairs. How do you spell obfuscation?

I haven't finished the article but my hunch is Emily Witt won't mention any of these things. 

***********************
50 Year Anniversary
SNL
Debuted in 1975

Wow, wow, wow.

Even by The New Yorker's standards this is a long, long essay: "Make Him Laugh: How Lorne Michael's Sensibility Governs 'Saturday Night Live.'"

I've only read the first four pages. It's so good I don't want to race through it. I will save the rest when I can relax and really, really enjoy it. Thank you, Susan Morrison. The essay is in The New Yorker section called "Profiles." "Profiles" is always one of The New Yorker's strengths. 

Later: this evening -- the same day I started reading the above article -- I'm watching three hours of "50 Years of SNL Music" on NBC. Truly amazing. The three-hour "documentary" dovetails nicely with the The New Yorker article on Lorne Michaels. If you missed this "documentary" you missed a most amazing "event." Seeing some clips, it's amazing SNL survived fifty years.

1975: I turned 24 that summer. I had completed two years of medical school and not married yet; I had not yet met my future wife. I would meet her in January, 1977. A lot of water has gone under that bridge in the last fifty years. Wow.

***************************
Trying to Write a History of the Jews

An almost-six-page essay on Zora Neal Huston and her long-unpublished novel about her magnificent obsession. 

The essay is amazing, and her bio, over at Wiki, is even more amazing. 

Oh, and now I see why The New Yorker article is so good. It was written by Louis Menand. Wow, how long has he been writing for The New Yorker.

************************
And Finally This

A review of "Severance," on Apple TV+.

Sounds very, very intriguing. Entering its second season.  From the essay:

Bloomberg (the business media outlet) reported that its ten episodes cost upward of twenty million dollars apiece, which would make it one of the priciest TV shows ever produced. Based on the lavish visuals (and on the accounts of rewrites and reshoots), i's a believable figure, though [Ben] Stiller told my colleague Rachel Syme that "any numbers out there are totally inacurate." The result is expansive and aesthetically ambitious: the encroachment of the surreal reaches Lynchian proportions while new subplots take the ensemble -- and the audience -- farther and farther from the nondescript office they've known.

We canceled our Apple TV+ subscription some years ago but I'm tempted to re-subscribe. And it's now easier than ever to subscribe: one can do it through Amazon Prime, if I recall correctly. Yes, that's accurate: I just checked. $9.99 after the free trial. When we last subscribed, it was $6.99. Cancel anytime.

**********************
Southern Surge

Hindsight is 20 / 20. 

Handled the right way starting fifty years ago, this whole "southern surge" could have been avoided. 

Biden made things worse, and is probably to blame for everything that follows.

How Trump handles this will "determine" whether this turns out badly. Or not. It could be his "Nixon goes to China" moment. I'm not hopeful. 

RBN Energy: PADD 1-- January 27, 2025

Locator: 48402B.

Trump: day 7. Yesterday was an incredibly good day for President Trump. He got in a round of golf and schooled Colombia. Which gave him an opportunity to remind folks he's serious about doing the same to Canada and Mexico.

Media: Fox News broke the story on Colombia first.  

The New York Times didn't report the story until several hours later. The story broke just before the Kansas City Chiefs took the field; Fox News appeared to be the first major news outlet that reported the story. About a half hour later The NYT reported the story -- the story that Colombia was standing up to Trump. By the end of the game -- the Chiefs won, 32 - 29 -- Colombia had backed off; Trump won. Fox News reported it immediately; perhaps even before it was confirmed by a second source. Incredibly -- well, maybe not so incredibly, The New York Times did not mention that Colombia backed off until several hours later, and all they did was change the headline. The NYT story linked to the headline remained the same, except a paragraph was added deep inside the story mentioning in passing that Colombia had backed down.

Recession: 

This is really, really cool.

Finally, I can agree with al of those folks predicting a recession for the past four years. We're finally going to see it. It? A recession.

Well, at least we're going to start hearing the word "recession" this week, and, of course, "sticky inflation," which has never gone away.

The US won't actually have a recession this year -- if recession is defined by two consecutive quarters of negative growth -- a negative GDP -- as with a "minus sign" in front of "1% GDP," for example.

But we will have a marked decreased in GDP.

GDPNow was forecasting a wonderful 3% GDP for Biden's last quarter. By the end of the year, GDPNow will be forecasting a 1% GDP growth -- that's not negative but going from 3% to 1% is going to feel like a recession. Price of eggs? Don't even get me started. 

The market is ready to sell off; it already has in some sectors. We're going to be told it's all about the Chinese LLM DeepSeek. Okay. But what really go the market spooked over the weekend was the tariff story.

It looks like Trump is serious.

It looks like Trump is sticking to his 25% tariffs on Mexico and Canada. His advisors (and he himself) may want tariffs delayed until we see what Mexico and Canada will do with regard to cross-border fentanyl and human trafficking but in the big scheme of things, that's just the flag leading the troops. Fentanyl and human trafficking are the flags leading this "economic war." Does anyone really think the guy who wrote the book on "the art of the deal" is really worried about fentanyl and human trafficking?

The real story is exactly what Trump has been saying for years: he's tired of jobs going to Mexico and he's tired of the trade imbalance with Canada, especially when it comes to cars.

We had three hours of "high anxiety" yesterday when Trump slapped 25% tariffs on Colombia -- say what? Colombia? I can't even identify where Colombia is on a South American map -- I know it's near Central America -- I think it's to the left of Venezuela; it may be the last SA country bordering Central America -- where the soon-to-be-US-owned Panama Canal is -- going north from the rest of the banana republics -- but a trade war with Colombia? Wow, I hope folks can "diagram" that sentence. 

Colombia shot back with 50% tariffs on coffee and flowers.

That's what really spooked investors. Traders weren't spooked. They love this. Buy low, sell high. But I digress.

Back to tariffs.

AOC made it really, really, really worse and really, really, really scary for investors when she said that tariffs on Colombia would increase the cost of coffee at Starbucks and .... drum roll .... the cost of flowers. Wedding season is coming up in June.

The tariffs on Colombia may still be in place -- that was a bit hazy by the end of Trump's round of golf early Sunday evening. I can't make this up. On the third hole Trump got word that Colombia would not allow US military a/c to land in his country carrying hard-working Colombians back to their home country; by the eighth hole the Colombian president said he would send his own "presidential" plane to America to pick up the outcasts -- what was I saying?

Oh, yes, the tariffs on Colombia may still be in place, that was a bit hazy last evening -- SecState Rubio will sort that out this morning, I'm sure -- but to traders and investors that was just a foreshadowing -- my favorite word used in college literature courses -- no, not a foreshadowing of what 25% tariffs on Canada or Mexico would do -- no one really knows what that would do to Canada (I guess Trudeau knows -- that's why he stepped down) -- but the fact that Trump had tariffs on Colombia in less than a New York minute told traders, investors, Xi, Trudeau, and anyone else who was listening now know that he's serious. If Trump wakes up on February 1, 2025, on the bad side of bed: wham! 25% tariffs on Canada. 25% tariffs on Mexico. Add 10% more on Chinese tariffs.

So far he's kept all his campaign promises, except the one about ending the war in Europe, but Putin is eager to talk and Zelenskyy knows he's on borrowed time. The last of Biden's money will run out by the end of the month. By the way, Putin and Trump are up to something big -- really, really big -- and Denmark is worried that Greenland might be collateral damage. LOL.

So, from DeepSeek to Greenland, that's where we are today.

Wow, after all that, I better put remind folks of the disclaimer. See below.

This commentary will be re-posted elsewhere as a stand-alone to be linked to twitter. 

Chart of the day, link here:

*****************************
Back to Sanity

ISO-NE, link here. See also, the RBN Energy deep dive into PADD1 -- they stories are related:

**************************************
Back to the Bakken

WTI: $74.23.

New wells:

• Tuesday, January 28, 2025: 44 for the month, 44 for the quarter, 44 for the year, 
• 38939, conf, CLR, Harms West Federal 3-32HSL1,
• Monday, January 27, 2025: 43 for the month, 43 for the quarter, 43 for the year, 
• 35508, conf, Enerplus, FB Clinton 148-94-29B-32-6T,
• Sunday, January 26, 2025: 42 for the month, 42 for the quarter, 42 for the year, 
• 40574, conf, Empire North Dakota LLC, Red Horse 32 1H,
• 40224, conf, Hess, GO-Dustin Brose-LE-156-98-2932H-1,
• Saturday, January 25, 2025: 40 for the month, 40 for the quarter, 40 for the year, 
• 40454, conf, Hess, GO-Dustin Brose-156-98-2932H-5, 

RBN Energy: what's behind PADD 1's reliance on imported crude oil and refined products? Archived.

PADD 1 — the East Coast — represents about 31% of total U.S. consumption of refined products (and 37% of its population) but is home to just 5% of U.S. refinery capacity. With only minimal in-region crude oil production, PADD 1 refineries are almost entirely dependent on imported and domestic inflows of both crude oil and products like gasoline, diesel and jet fuel. In the early years of the Shale Era, large volumes of domestic crude were railed or barged to these refineries, but in recent years they’ve again become largely reliant on imports from OPEC, Canada and other foreign sources. In today’s RBN blog, we’ll look into PADD 1’s changing crude oil and refined products supply and demand balance. 

Figure 1. U.S. PADD Map and Product Supplied for Finished Petroleum Products by PADD. Source EIA

The U.S.’s Atlantic Coast, stretching from picture-perfect coastal towns in Maine to the tropical Florida Keys, is the home of New York City’s iconic skyline, Philadelphia’s historic landmarks, and Atlanta’s vibrant nightlife — and more than 125 million people, almost all of them relying on refined products for many aspects of their lives. The East Coast also represents the first of five Petroleum Administration for Defense Districts (PADDs; colored regions in Figure 1). Created in World War II to manage the country’s refined product demand, PADDs now serve the purpose of regionalizing data. PADD 1 (blue region in map on left side of Figure 1 above) is further divided into three regional groupings: PADD 1-A (New England; light-blue area in Figure 2 below), PADD 1-B (Central Atlantic; medium-blue area), and PADD 1-C (Lower Atlantic; dark-blue area).

Figure 2. Map of PADD 1 Sub-Districts and Refineries. Source: RBN

With PADD 1’s population density, it should come as no surprise that the region is the largest consumer of refined products. As shown in the chart on the ride side of Figure 1, demand for petroleum products (blue line) refined from crude oil (primarily gasoline, diesel and jet fuel, and excluding biofuels) has diminished somewhat, from an annual average of 6.3 MMb/d in 2005 to 5.1 MMb/d in 2024. That being said, the PADD’s regional refinery capacity has also been dwindling, which has led to its continued reliance on imported gasoline and diesel, as well as increasing amounts of refined products being piped in from PADD 3 (Gulf Coast) — up by roughly 500 Mb/d since 2010.

**********************************
Disclaimer
Brief Reminder 

• I am inappropriately exuberant about the Bakken and I am often well out front of my headlights. I am often appropriately accused of hyperbole when it comes to the Bakken.
  
• I am inappropriately exuberant about the US economy and the US market.
• I am also inappropriately exuberant about all things Apple. 
• See disclaimer. This is not an investment site. 
• Disclaimer: this is not an investment site. Do not make any investment, financial, job, career, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here. All my posts are done quickly: there will be content and typographical errors. If something appears wrong, it probably is. Feel free to fact check everything.
  
• If anything on any of my posts is important to you, go to the source. If/when I find typographical / content errors, I will correct them. 
• Reminder: I am inappropriately exuberant about the Bakken, US economy, and the US market.
• I am also inappropriately exuberant about all things Apple. 
• And now, Nvidia, also. I am also inappropriately exuberant about all things Nvidia. Nvidia is a metonym for AI and/or the sixth industrial revolution.
• I've now added Broadcom to the disclaimer. I am also inappropriately exuberant about all things Broadcom.
• Longer version here.