Fracked With 34 Million Gallons Of Water -- February 2, 2021

The well. This was an extended long lateral, three sections long; one section longer than a typical two-section well in the Bakken. The Maddy Federal wells are tracked here.

• 32070, A/F, XTO, Maddy Federal 24X-34D, North Fork, first production, 7/20; t--; cum 253K 12/20; re-entered on December 4, 2018; TD reached on December 21, 2018; fracked 3/30/20 - 4/20/20; 33.660 million gallons of water; 93.3% water by mass;
  

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A Musical Interlude

Ray Charles, 1962

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Personal Request

The Incredible Maddy Federal Wells

For Bakken 4.0, these are not atypical wells.

These were extended long laterals (three sections). Interestingly, there was no "parent" well in this drilling unit.

The wells:

• 32069, PNC, XTO, Maddy Federal 24X-34A, North Fork,
• 32066, PNC, XTO, Maddy Federal 24X-34C, North Fork,
• 32064, PNC, XTO, Maddy Federal 24X-34G, North Fork,
• 32071, A/F, XTO, Maddy Federal 24X-34AXD, North Fork, first production, 7/20; t--; cum 202K 12/20;
• 32065, A/F, XTO, Maddy Federal 24X-34B, North Fork, first production, 7/20; t--; cum 212K 12/20;
• 32070, A/F, XTO, Maddy Federal 24X-34D, North Fork, first production, 7/20; t--; cum 253K 12/20; re-entered on December 4, 2018; TD reached on December 21, 2018; fracked 3/30/20 - 4/20/20; 33 million gallons of water; 93.3% water by mass;
  
• 32068, A/F, XTO, Maddy Federal 24X-34H, North Fork, first production, 9/20; t--; cum 181K 12/20;

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The Graphic

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Production

32068:

Pool	Date	Days	BBLS Oil	Runs	BBLS Water	MCF Prod	MCF Sold	Vent/Flare
BAKKEN	12-2020	23	31811	31880	32614	69682	68184	970
BAKKEN	11-2020	30	55204	55297	45799	119951	112439	7396
BAKKEN	10-2020	31	59066	58859	45821	121707	110000	11586
BAKKEN	9-2020	13	34676	34482	23975	68912	63402	5474
BAKKEN	8-2020	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	7-2020	0	0	169	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	6-2020	3	169	0	13318	1206	633	573
BAKKEN	6-2019	0	0	0	0	0	0	0

32070:

Pool	Date	Days	BBLS Oil	Runs	BBLS Water	MCF Prod	MCF Sold	Vent/Flare
BAKKEN	12-2020	31	47418	47143	41210	107971	105651	1502
BAKKEN	11-2020	8	14490	14569	15097	29624	27770	1825
BAKKEN	10-2020	15	23655	23765	22531	54988	49699	5235
BAKKEN	9-2020	29	48185	48353	48931	107634	99027	8550
BAKKEN	8-2020	31	63027	63327	65171	139484	122181	17247
BAKKEN	7-2020	26	55673	55185	49053	115963	112384	3516
BAKKEN	6-2020	2	250	0	6795	616	358	258
BAKKEN	6-2019	0	0	0	0	0	0	0

32065:

Pool	Date	Days	BBLS Oil	Runs	BBLS Water	MCF Prod	MCF Sold	Vent/Flare
BAKKEN	12-2020	31	32753	32719	41308	82523	80743	1155
BAKKEN	11-2020	30	38004	38056	46974	94153	88261	5801
BAKKEN	10-2020	28	38858	38732	50046	89431	80829	8513
BAKKEN	9-2020	17	24688	24984	30110	59815	55033	4751
BAKKEN	8-2020	31	62430	62194	70990	144782	126822	17902
BAKKEN	7-2020	7	14910	15382	12721	30595	29650	928
BAKKEN	6-2020	4	670	0	14216	1675	1181	494
BAKKEN	6-2019	0	0	0	0	0	0	0

32071:

Pool	Date	Days	BBLS Oil	Runs	BBLS Water	MCF Prod	MCF Sold	Vent/Flare
BAKKEN	12-2020	30	27643	27957	29507	67056	66466	0
BAKKEN	11-2020	30	30462	30291	31943	71306	65663	5484
BAKKEN	10-2020	30	36136	35945	40654	83169	71916	11098
BAKKEN	9-2020	17	21889	22136	24689	51376	47195	4139
BAKKEN	8-2020	31	47347	47989	57151	105317	96327	8908
BAKKEN	7-2020	24	38217	37460	42327	78894	78835	0
BAKKEN	6-2020	4	540	0	13481	1714	1169	545
BAKKEN	6-2019	0	0	0	0	0	0	0

Updating Those 1Q19 Wells With No IP At Time They Came Off Confidential List, Part 1 -- February 2, 2021

I am in the process of updating the wells that came off the confidential list in 1Q19 but were either not completed (DUCs) or had no IP. I've gone through about one-third to one-half of all those wells in 1Q19. 

These wells were on drl status last time I check. Now updated:

• 23937, 759, XTO, FBIR Yellowwolf 21X-10F, Heart Butte -- look how old this permit is; t8/19; cum 143K 12/20;
• 23940, 244, XTO, FBIR Ironwoman 21X-10F, Heart Butte -- look how old this permit is; t9/19; cum 129K 12/20;
• 35035, A, XTO, FBIR Youngbear 31X-9D, Heart Butte, t--; cum 140K 12/20;
• 32065, A/F, XTO, Maddy Federal 24X-34B, North Fork, t--; cum 212K 12/20;

This well was inactive last time I checked. Now updated:

• 33646, 1,421  CLR, Omlid 8-19H, Elidah, 4 sections, t12/18; cum 255K 12/20;

These wells were DUCs waiting to be completed last time I checked. Now updated:

• 32273, 797, Slawson, Submariner Federal 7-23-20TFH, Big Bend, t6/19; cum 134K 1/20; off line 2/20; remains off line 12/20;
• 30890, 982, Oasis, Stenberg 5199 11-9 8B, Poe, t7/19; cum 291K 12/20;
• 32272, 1,927, Slawson, Submariner Federal 2-23-20H, Big Bend, t6/19; cum 193K 2/20; off line 2/20; remains off line 12/20;
• 30889, 311, Oasis, Stenberg 5199 11-9 9B, Poe, t7/1; cum 258K 12/20;
• 30051, 3,090, WPX, Good Voice 34-27HU, Spotted Horn, t1/19; cum 447K 12/20; 
• 35034, A, XTO, FBIR Youngbear 31X-9H, Heart Butte, t--; cum 93K 12/20;
•  35033, A, XTO, RBIR Youngbear 31X-9C, Heart Butte, t--; cum 170K 12/20; 
•  35032, A, XTO, FBIR Youngbear 31X-9G, Heart Butte, t--; cum 776K 12/20;
  
• 35031, A, XTO, FBIR Youngbear 31X-9BXC, Heart Butte, t--; cum 130K 12/20; 
• 34348, 99, XTO, Walton Federal 41X-19BXC, Bear Den, t7/19; cum 265K 12/20; 
• 34349, 92, XTO, Walton Federal 41x-19F2, Bear Den, t7/19; cum 129K 12/20;
• 34350, 19, XTO, Walton Federal 41X-19C, Bear Den, t7/19; cum 321K 12/20; 
• 29404, 1,046, Oasis, Seattle Federal 5200 42-35 8B, Camp, t1/19; cum 293K 12/20; 
• 32071, A, XTO, Maddy Federal 24X-34AXD, North Fork, t--; cum 202K 12/20; 
• 32070, A, XTO, Maddy Federal 24X-34D, North Fork, t--; cum 253K 12/20; 
• 32068, A, XTO, Maddy Federal 24X-34H, North Fork, t--; cum 181K 12/20; 
• 32067, A, XTO, Maddy Federal 24X-34F, North Fork, t--; cum 252K 12/20;
  
• 28951, 2,362, Hess, EN-Jeffrey-155-94-2215H-4, Alkali Creek, t6/19; cum 172K 12/20; 
• 28952, 2,999, Hess, EN-Jeffrey-155-94-2215H-5, Alkali Creek, t5/19; cum 226K 12/20;
• 34920, 883, XTO, Christiana 21X-6F, West Capa, t5/19; cum 159K 12/20; 
• 28953, 2,464, Hess, EN-Jeffrey-155-94-2215H-6, Alkali Creek, t5/19; cum 153K 12/20;
  

These wells had significant production since last checked.

• 20342, 1,430, Petro-Hunt, USA 153-95-4B-9-1H, Charlson, t11/11; cum 1.152452 million bbls 12/20; went over one million bbls crude oil;
• 34249, 32 (no typo), BR, Raider 1B MBH, Twin Valley, t1/19; cum 283K 12/20; 
• 35197, 2,646, Hess, CA-E Burdick-LE-155-95-2017H-1, Capa, t3/19; cum 231K 12/20;
• 32925, 13 (no typo), BR, Renegade 34-10MBH, Sand Creek, t12/18; cum 202K 12/20; 
• 30316, 2,159, Hess, EN-Weyrauch C-154-93-2932H-11, Robinson Lake, t12/18; cum 303K 12/20;

Another Metric Added To "Data Links" Page -- February 2, 2021.

Another metric added to "data links"page. A "beta test" page by the EIA.

Side-by-side comparison: link here.

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SpaceX

When will that first manned flight be ready to go? 

After today's second explosion in as many attempted landing, this from CNBC:

Elon Musk previously said that Starship could potentially fly people in 2020 [wasn't that last year?], but he’s since acknowledged that the rocket still has many milestones, including “hundreds of missions,” to go before that happens.

For the archives.  

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This Isn't Rocket Science

I see that a Harvard professor has come up with five activities that can increase your happiness fast and they're free. I can come up with five activities I wish I could do -- five activities that would increase my happiness immensely and would be completely free:

• take Sophia to Tutor Time without wearing a mask
• stop by the apartment manager's office to say "hi" without wearing a mask
• walking through the grocery store without wearing a mask
• having a document notarized at AAA without wearing a mask
• going to the public library without wearing a mask

However, having said that, here's what I'm looking forward to ... all right around the corner --

• grilling on the Weber again
• crawdad season --- very soon
• sitting poolside early in the morning, reading, watching the birds
• swimming late in the evening

Another Incredible Oil Story Going Forward? February 2, 2021

Social media, business news, oil journals suggest we could be on the verge of another incredible oil story going forward over the next ten years.

Disclaimer: this is not an investment site.  Do not make any investment, financial, job, career, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here.

With regard to energy, does it come down to this: oil, renewable energy (wind and/or solar), nuclear? 

If there is something else, I am not aware of what it might be. No, it's not hydrogen. LOL.

Coal is out, except in China.

Nuclear is going away, except perhaps in Japan. 

Saudi Arabia thinks there will be a crude oil deficit by the end of the year. Others have suggested the same thing. 

The United States is going to spend a lot of resources / is going to waste a lost of resources on renewable energy over the next four years.

If the administration is successful in curtailing the US oil sector, the Mideast will easily make up the shortfall.

Now note: the opening sentence: "....on the verge of another incredible oil story going forward over the next ten years."

The pivot to "all EV" will occur faster than the renewable industry can keep up. We'll see that in five years. 

Policies in the western world will drive us toward renewable energy, away from fossil fuels. 

The gradual increase in the price of energy will be like the frog on a log in ever-increasing heated water. 

Five years from now it will be obvious to all that there is simply not enough water or land on which to put all the wind and solar farms necessary to provide all the energy needed for all the nuclear energy plants shut down. 

At some point, renewable energy will max out. 

And that will be that. 

Five years. 

See this article. Archived.

Disclaimer: this is not an investment site.  Do not make any investment, financial, job, career, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here.

 

Petro-Harvester With Four New Permits Along The Canadian Border, North Of Williston -- February 2, 2012

Not so super: Super Bowl tickets not so super less than a week out. If this is accurate this tells me that folks buy tickets for the experience and not for the game. With hotels, bars, restaurants, "closed down," fewer folks are interested. In addition, do you really think high rollers want to expose themselves to super spreaders at events like this? I don't think there's any correlation between tickets sold for stadium seats and the television audience we will see. Pandemic-adjusted, this will be the most-watched Super Bowl in history.

Ameritrade commercial showing now: setting -- in an airport terminal. No social distancing and no one wearing masks. Speaks volumes.

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Back to the Bakken

WTI: up over 2% today, after a great run earlier; up $1.21; trading at $54.76 at close. Whoo-hoo!

Active rigs:

$54.76	2/2/2021	02/02/2020	02/02/2019	02/02/2018	02/02/2017
Active Rigs	14	54	64	57	40

Four new permits, #, 38109 - 38112, inclusive --

• Operator: Petro Harvester
• Field: Leaf Mountain (Burke County, along the Canadian border, straight north of Williston, maybe a bit east of Williston)
• Comments:
• Petro Harvester has four permits in Leaf Mountain, NWNW 19-161-93,
• 38109, LFM2, AMB, 625 FNL 800 FWL
• 38110, LFM2, BTF, 590 FNL 800 FWL,
• 38111, LFM2, BMB, 555 FNL 800 FWL,
• 38112, LFM2, ATF, 520 FNL 800 FWL,

Apparently they missed one yesterday:

• another Newfield Production Company well acquired by Ovintiv Production Inc.

Chinese Flu Watch -- February 2, 2021

From social media about 30 minutes ago, 6:00 p.m. CT, February 2, 2021. If this holds true, the "stampede" for the vaccine will be overwhelming.....regardless of what Front Line Doctors or other naysayers have to say.

The neurologic sequalae of naturally-occurring Covid-19 should scare anyone that's paying attention.

Before we get to the US vaccine rollout, Russian Covid-19 vaccine was reportedly highly effective in trial, boosting Moscow's rollout ambitions -- study reported in Lancet (well known for "issues" with vaccine studies and reporting); story reported in WSJ. 

Now, the US vaccine rollout. 

As mentioned earlier, the best days to track the vaccination rollout, all things being equal, are Tuesday and Friday. 

And today it's Tuesday.

The following numbers are taken directly from the CDC.

		A	B	C	D	E	F
		Doses of vaccine distributed to health facilities	Change from day before	Vaccinations given	Change from day before	Percent of doses given/doses received over previous 24 hours	Percent of distributed vaccine that is actually administered
Tuesday	February 2, 2021	52,657,675	2,721,225	32,780,860	558,458	20.52%	62.25%
Monday	February 1, 2021	49,936,450	3,200	32,222,402	1,099,103	34346.97%	64.53%
Sunday	January 31, 2021	49,933,250	400	31,123,299	1,545,397	386349.25%	62.33%
Saturday	January 30, 2021	49,932,850	716,350	29,577,902	1,693,241	236.37%	59.24%
Friday	January 29, 2021	49,216,500	830,225	27,884,661	1,690,979	203.68%	56.66%
Thursday	January 28, 2021	48,386,275	1,155,325	26,193,682	1,541,048	133.39%	54.13%
Wednesday	January 27, 2021	47,230,950	2,836,875	24,652,634	1,111,640	39.19%	52.20%
Tuesday	January 26, 2021	44,394,075	2,975,750	23,540,994	806,751	27.11%	53.03%
Monday	January 25, 2021	41,418,325	6,775	22,734,243	885,588	13071.41%	54.89%
Sunday	January 24, 2021	41,411,550	0	21,848,655	1,310,665		52.76%
Saturday	January 23, 2021	41,411,550	1,519,150	20,537,990	696,269	45.83%	49.59%
Friday	January 22, 2021	39,892,400	1,932,400	19,841,721	1,392,433	72.06%	49.74%
Thursday	January 21, 2021	37,960,000	1,969,850	18,449,288	1,924,007	97.67%	48.60%
Wednesday	January 20, 2021	35,990,150		16,525,281			45.92%

 

	A	B	C	D	E	F
	Total Doses Administered	Number of People Receiving 1 Or More Doses	Number of People Receiving 2 Doses	Number of People Considered Fully Immunized	Delta: Difference in daily doses from previous day	Percent (B+C)/A	Percent Of Americans With 2 Doses
February 2, 2021	32,780,860	26,440,836	6,064,792		558,458.00	99.16%	8.01%
February 1, 2021	32,222,402	26,023,153	5,927,847		1,099,103.00	99.16%	7.89%
January 31, 2021	31,123,299	25,201,143	5,657,142		1,545,397.00	99.15%	7.64%
January 30, 2021	29,577,902	24,064,165	5,259,693		1,693,241.00	99.14%	7.29%
January 29, 2021	27,884,661	22,858,318	4,780,888		1,690,979.00	99.12%	6.93%
January 28, 2021	26,193,682	21,698,606	4,263,056		1,541,048.00	99.11%	6.58%
January 27, 2021	24,652,634	20,687,970	3,801,053		1,147,640.00	99.34%	6.27%
January 26, 2021	23,504,994	19,902,237	3,481,921		770,751.00	99.49%	6.03%
January 25, 2021	22,734,243	19,252,279	3,346,390		885,588.00	99.40%	5.83%
Jan 24, 2021	21,848,655	18,502,131	3,216,836		1,310,665.00	99.41%	5.61%
Jan 23, 2021	20,537,990	17,390,345	3,027,865		1,430,031.00	99.42%	5.27%
Jan 22, 2021	19,107,959	16,243,093	2,756,953			99.44%	4.92%

Observations:

• goal: at least one million doses administered daily; that's the low bar; high bar: three million doses per day;
• note: 558,458 doses given in most recent 24-hour time period reported; well short of one million;
• other number to watch: number of doses delivered

Percent of doses used:

• North Dakota, #1: 82%
• West Virginia, #2: 81%
• New York State (Governor Cuomo says his state is doing great: 66%
• California: 63%
• Texas: 61%
• Florida: 56%

Meanwhile, the number of new cases is plummeting across the US now that the post-Christmas surge has passed.