For all the handwringing regarding the most recent Covid-19 surge in Michigan, their current numbers would not even get them on this graphic, well, maybe, but one gets the point. From November 5, 2020:
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Chinese Flu Watch
Note, North Dakota is at the top, followed by South Dakota.
Summary:
Disclaimer: this is not an investment site. Do not make any investment, financial, job, career, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here.
Wow, wow, wow. So many story lines here, but not tonight. Maybe tomorrow. It's gonna be a long summer.
Links:
EIA dashboards:
The graphics:
I quit following this year's "seasonal flu" statistics many months ago but after seeing the "cartoon graphic" earlier today, I had to fact-check the data myself.
This is week 40 of this year's "seasonal flu" season which began September 27, 2020, and will continue through week 52, but the "seasonal flu" season is over for all intents and purposes for this year, 2020 - 2021.
This is truly bizarre. There is no other word to describe it
This year, so far, into week 40, cumulative data from September 27, 2020:
Let's repeat that.
Technically it's the number of specimens tested. Some people were tested more than once obviously,
As a reader noted: it's clear that masks and social distancing is all we need to combat "seasonal flu."
That annual "flu shot"? So yesterday. Can't ever imagine having to get it again. [Note: I haven't had a "flu shot" since I retired from the military in 2007. I'm just doing my part to save some money for Medicare and Tricare.]
I'm not being facetious: if the reader is correct, that all we need to do is wear masks and stay six feet apart to pretty much eliminate the "flu," why bother with a shot? With Covid-19, even after being vaccinated, the CDC recommends continued masking and social distancing.
But does anyone really believe that only 1,710 Americans "caught" the "flu" this past year? LOL.That's what the CDC is telling us. Last year, 2019 - 2020, before Covid-19 became a thing? At least 18 million outpatient medical visits for flu-like illnesses.
Here's the final 2019 - 2020 data, one year earlier, link here:
The graphics:
To paraphrase a character in an old Columbo episode: "Where DID all those flu cases go?"
No one has the answers. I don't have the answers, but when no one is even asking what happened to "seasonal flu" that pretty much tells me all I need to know.
Note: this is, hands down, one of the most boring things I to do each quarter. I doubt anyone really looks at it but the day I quit doing this will be the day I miss posting something important. The word "important" is used loosely. Very loosely.
This is so boring that I actually didn't record a thing for 1Q20, one year ago. LOL.
This is linked at the top of the sidebar at the right during earnings
season. After earnings -- pretty much after PXD and Apple posts
their earnings -- this post will move back into obscurity.
This is not an investment site. Do not make any investment, financial, job, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or what you think you may have read here. If this is important to you, go to the source. There will be content and typographical errors on this page. If something looks wrong, it probably is.
A lot of anticipation and excitement over this quarter's earnings reports. We're starting to come out of the global pandemic; the lockdowns began in March, 2020, about a year ago. The stock market has had an incredible run since the presidential election about six months ago.
It's my understanding the first week of earnings season will feature the banks which are expected to have had a huge quarter.
May 4, 2021: Saudi Aramco reports.
May 4, 2021: after market closes, DVN reports. Devon's deal to buy WPX closed on January 7, 2021. DVN market cap: $14 billion.
May 4, 2021: before market opens, COP. COP closed its deal to buy Concho on January 15, 2021. COP becomes the largest independent oil and gas company with that acquisition. COP market cap: $67 billion. XOM market cap: $235 billion. CVX: $195 billion market cap.
April 30, 2021:
April 29, 2021: records, records, and more records.
April 28, 2021: CLR reports.
April 28, 2021: after market closes, AAPL will report. The Street, April 19, 2021:
April 27, 2021: the stock to watch -- AMD.
April 20, 2021: Netflix: 1Q21 earnings report -- huge miss (on psa), but otherwise good. The market didn't think so -- shares tanked 10% after the numbers came out.
April 19, 2021: United Airlines; losses at $7.50 / share much worse than expected ($7.05 /share). Cash burn $9 million / day but that's better than a cash burn of $19 million day the prior quarter. Guidance: cash flow positive by the end of the year.
April 18, 2021: banks reported earnings across the board 40% to 80% higher than forecast. A blowout quarter for the banks. Mostly due to regulatory changes that greatly favored the banks.
France: the French are absolutely nuts. The country is set to ban short haul domestic flights of less than 2.5 hours duration (won't affect connecting flights) where travel by rail is available. This is all in the name of CO2 emissions. So now, add yet another Covid-19 super-spreader transportation scheme. Whatever. Link here. Meanwhile, the Chinese keep building their coal plants.
AAPL: I doubt the experts would call this a "breakout" since AAPL has traded much higher in the recent past. However, after being in a narrow trading range for the last few weeks, AAPL is starting to show some interesting activity.
Re-posting from earlier today --
AAPL:
Disclaimer: this is not an investment site. Do not make any investment, financial, job, career, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here.
Apple, Inc. special event, just announced: April 20, 2021; 10:00 PDT.
Apple, Inc., special event: April 20, 2021; 10:00 a.m. PDT.
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Back to the Bakken
Active rigs:
| $60.18 | 4/13/2021 | 04/13/2020 | 04/13/2019 | 04/13/2018 | 04/13/2017 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Active Rigs | 17 | 36 | 63 | 60 | 51 |
Four new permits, #38259 - #38262, inconclusive:
Ten permits renewed:
Change of operator, from Samson Oil and Gas USA, Inc, to Eagle Operating, Inc:
From Vern Whitten today:
Where did you grow up, and what does it look like now?
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Pretty much all I need to know about the pandemic:
"Seasonal flu": annual "flu shots" are so "yesterday." No longer needed and no longer recommended when there were only 1,822 total "seasonal flu" cases reported in the entire United States this past season.
Clotting: six out of sixpointeight million. Yup. Six serious side effects out of 6.8 million vaccinations given (one dose per individual is all that is required). Never before has a medication been taken off the market with a specific side effect identified as occurring in less than one in a million, and there is not even any direct link, cause-and-effect, and, of course, no risk-benefit analysis would result in this craziness. Among those who actually follow this: cognitive dissonance.
Meanwhile, the odds of the DAPL being shut down:
Friday, April 9, 2021:
- US Army Corps of Engineers won't shut it down; will let judge decide
- Judge: thumbs down; kill it;
Saturday, April 10, 2021:
- Judge: thumbs up; let it flow;
Sunday, April 11, 2021:
- Judge: thumbs down; kill it;
Monday, April 12, 2021:
- Judge: thumbs up; let it flow;
Tuesday, April 13, 2021:
- Judge: thumbs down; kill it;
Wednesday, April 13, 2021:
- Judge: thumbs up; let it flow;
Thursday, April 14, 2021:
- Judge: thumbs down; kill it;
Friday, April 15, 2021:
Saturday, April 15, 2021;
- Judge: thumbs up; let it flow;
This should have been a slow news day but so much is going on, it's hard to keep up.
I haven't even gotten to the Spratly Islands story. The Spratly Islands were the focus of a major USAF war gaming exercise at the Air War College when I was a student there back in 1993 - 1994. One wonders if China was preparing for three decades to take advantage of first opportunity to take on a weak, confused administration? China has a three-year window. There seems to be on "line" missing in the graphic at this link.
Inflation number seemed not to be anywhere near as bad as some feared: 1.6 vs 1.5. Seventeen hours ago, before the report was released.
The March consumer price index is expected to show a moderate 0.2% increase in core inflation, excluding food and energy prices, according to economists polled by Dow Jones. On a year-over-year basis, that is a 1.5% pace, compared to 1.3% in February.
March headline inflation is expected to increase by 0.5% or 2.5% year-over-year, up from 1.7% in February. By May, some economists expect headline inflation could be running at an year-over- year rate of 3.5% or more. The headline rate was last at 2.5% in January, 2020.
Today's story on inflation not yet posted by CNBC but apparently the "early number" was 1.6.
JNJ: most of the Dow pullback just before the market opened was due to JNJ. I posted the following yesterday. Talk about perfect timing. JNJ closed down 1.34%; closed at $159.48.
At the opening:
CLR: update on 1Q21 production here; full results to be posted April 29, 2021, mid-day.
production estimates:
AAPL:
Disclaimer: this is not an investment site. Do not make any investment, financial, job, career, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here.
Semiconductor White House summit: I wonder how that went. I haven't seen any updated stories, and I certainly haven't seen any "actionable" recommendations. One wonders if the president even showed up, except, of course, to make opening statements. Certainly no tweets.
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Investing Basics
Dow Jones 101: link here. Price-based.
Pop quiz! Quick: what is the "divisor"? Why is there a "divisor"? Essay, worth 25 points.
Extra credit, 25 points: what's the divisor today? Link here.
S&P 500: link here. Market-cap based.
Pop quiz! Quick: name the one FAANG stock that is not in the top ten "biggest stocks" in the S&P 500 as noted at the link.
WTI: nice way to start the morning. WTI up about 1%; up about 50 cents; now trading just over $60.
Permian pipelines: overbuilt; Plains All-American, EPD, and Magellan will feel the pain.
EOG, early mover: sounds like EOG has moved into San Juan; has apparently leased fourteen townships. Building pads in Sandoval City. Link here. This is a big Biden story: link here. EOG could not have done this without Biden's support. Whoo-hoo!
DiamondBack Energy: uptick in production in 1Q20. Link here.
Covid-19 / JNJ: another example of how fortunate "we" were that President Trump was in charge at the time of the outbreak. 6.8 million JNJ doses administered; 6 serious clotting cases. Take 6.8 million high-risk Americans that did not get the vaccine, how many experienced serious clotting cases? All six cases in women aged 18 - 48. That's an interesting demographic; reminds me of BCP research and BCP use. It should be noted that neither European regulators NOR US regulators were able to identify any other medication that has even been taken off the market with a side effect of one-in-a-million. Never let a crisis go to waste.
PC shipments: notch fastest quarterly growth in twenty years. Link here.
Mercedes EQS sedan: will launch later this week. Link here.
NYC subway crime: dog-bites-man story. Link here.
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Back to the Bakken
Active rigs:
| $60.26 | 4/13/2021 | 04/13/2020 | 04/13/2019 | 04/13/2018 | 04/13/2017 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Active Rigs | 17 | 36 | 63 | 60 | 51 |
One well coming off the confidential list -- Tuesday, April 13, 20211: 7 for the month, 7 for the quarter, 88 for the year:
RBN Energy: US LNG outlook -- feedgas demand headed to twelve Bcf/d in late 2021.
After a roller coaster over the past year, U.S. LNG feedgas demand has been holding steady at record levels of around 11 Bcf/d for nearly a month now, with the exception of a few days due to pipeline maintenance. With Train 3 at Cheniere Energy’s Corpus Christi Liquefaction facility online and price spreads to global markets favorable for U.S. exports, that’s where it’s likely to stay, except for maintenance periods — at least until new liquefaction trains start commissioning later this year. Two Louisiana projects, Venture Global’s new Calcasieu Pass facility and the sixth train at Cheniere’s existing Sabine Pass terminal, have both indicated that they will begin exporting commissioning cargoes by year’s end — ahead of their originally proposed construction schedules — a prospect that could boost Gulf Coast feedgas demand to even greater heights by the fourth quarter of 2021. In today’s blog, we wrap up this short series with a detailed look at the two projects and implications for LNG feedgas demand this year.
