Tuesday, May 30, 2023

Debt Ceiling Vote -- McCarthy Looks For GOP Votes -- May 30, 2023

Locator: 44801ECON.
Locator: 44801POL.

Link here.

I truly must be missing something.

From the article

Did anyone do the math? Did anyone even read the article?

The GOP moves farther and farther away from me.

Again, from the linked article:

In one late development, the nonpartisan Congressional Budget Office said the spending restrictions in the package would reduce deficits by $1.5 trillion over the decade, a top goal for the Republicans trying to curb the debt load. [$1.5 trillion over the decade when the current debt is over $30 trillion.]
But in a surprise that could further erode Republican support, the GOP’s drive to impose work requirements on older Americans receiving food stamps ends up boosting spending by $2.1 billion over the time period. That’s because the final deal exempted veterans and homeless people, expanding the food stamp rolls by some 78,000 people monthly, the CBO said.

... would reduce deficits (sic) by $1.5 trillion, BUT this is what disturbs some MAGA GOP folks:

... the GOP’s drive to impose work requirements on older Americans receiving food stamps ends up boosting spending by $2.1 billion over the time period. That’s because the final deal exempted veterans and homeless people, expanding the food stamp rolls by some 78,000 people monthly.

Three things.

First, $2.1 billion vs $1.5 trillion. Do they take us for idiots?

Second: everyone knows this deficit reduction talk is a bunch of crap (but that's another story); and,

Third:

$2.1 billion "over the [same] time period." Over ten years. $2.1 billion / 10 years = $210 million vs a $6 trillion budget or 0.0000328 or 0.0033% / year; Lamar Jackson, NFL, has a contract that averages $32 million / year.

Not one word about increasing taxes on the top wealthiest 1% of Americans. But heaven forbid, grant veterans and homeless people exemptions from work requirements.

Wow.

Most cold-hearted ignoramuses on the planet. 

Buffett Buys More Oxy? May 30, 2023

Locator: 44800BRK.  

Link here.

Link here.

The Ovintiv Clear Creek Federal Wells In Westberg -- An Update -- May 30, 2023

Locator: 44799B. 

The Ovintiv Clear Creek Federal wells are tracked here.

From earlier today, from the daily activity report:

Seven producing wells (DUCs) reported as completed:

  • 38690, 2,730, Ovintiv, Clear Creek Federal 152-97-36-25-5H,
  • 38691, 2,193, Ovintiv, Clear Creek Federal 152-97-36-25-12H,
  • 38692, 2,148, Ovintiv, Clear Creek Federal 152-97-36-25-6H,
  • 38752, 1,524, Ovintiv, Clear Creek Federal 152-97-36-25-7H,
  • 38753, 1,180, Ovintiv, Clear Creek Federal 152-97-36-25-13H,
  • 38754, 891, Ovintiv, Clear Creek Federal 152-97-36-25-14H,
  • 38875, 1,476, Ovintiv, Clear Creek Federal 152-97-36-25-8H,

Wells of interest and the rest of the Clear Creek Federal wells in that drilling unit:

  • 22778, 1,433, Ovintiv, Clear Creek Federal 152-97-36-25-2H, Westberg, t9/12; cum 246K 3/23;
  • 18267, 1,033, Ovintiv, Clear Creek Federal 1-36H, Westberg, t12/09; cum 106K 3/23;

The map:

Recent production:

  • 18267: 3,458 bbls over 18 days --> 5,763 bbls over 30 days.
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN3-202318345832723887759651632274
BAKKEN2-20230000000
BAKKEN1-20232840453560123710630
BAKKEN12-202231293245173140211230
BAKKEN11-202230444327153169914290
BAKKEN10-202231479490185187315940
BAKKEN9-202230528792307201917490
BAKKEN8-202231932862428283525560
BAKKEN7-2022514201602942530
BAKKEN6-20220000000
BAKKEN5-20220000000
BAKKEN4-2022100033330
BAKKEN3-202231203554540
BAKKEN2-202219370312002000
BAKKEN1-202231590560132138213820
BAKKEN12-202131120281574954120

Look At The NITS On That Apple Headset -- May 30, 2023

Locator: 44798AAPL. 

Link here.

With ~5000 nits brightness or more, the AR/VR headset from Apple would support HDR or high dynamic range content, which is not typical for current VR headsets on the market.

The Meta Quest 2, for example, maxes out around 100 nits of brightness and it does not offer HDR, and the HoloLens 2 offers 500 nits brightness. 100 nits? Apple is talking 5,000 nits!

Sony's PSVR 2 headset has around 265 nits of brightness, and it does have an advertised HDR feature when connected to an HDR display.

If Apple hits that 5000+ nits brightness target, its headset will offer a display experience that competitors are unable to match.

But look at this:

If Apple hits that 5000+ nits brightness target, its headset will offer a display experience that competitors are unable to match, and it will also set the stage for future AR glasses. 

It's possible, Tim Cook's AV/VR headset presentation could match anything he's presented in the past, though it would be hard to exceed what Steve Jobs could do. 

The most difficult thing about marketing the AV/VR headset is to make the leap from featuring bizarre, schizoid movements by actors wearing the headset to what it can really do .... beyond gaming and without making the wearer look like an idiot.

Current Events -- No Oil, No Bakken, Rambling -- May 30, 2023

Locator: 44797ARCH.   

Cape Cod: when we lived in Belmont, a suburb west of Boston, one of our favorite weekend trips was to drive up US Highway 6 the length of Cape Cod to Provincetown. I see that billionaire Bill Koch has put eleven acres of his Cape Cod holdings on the market for about $16 million. It is estimated he owns about forty acres of land on Cape Cod. Downsizing at age 83. $16 million / $1.6 billion net worth = 1% of his net worth. The non-ocean-front acreage is on the elbow, Osterville, northeast of Martha's Vineyard, the island across Nantucket Sound from the peninsula. 

Dina Powell McCormick, 49 years old, moving out of government and Goldman Sachs into "private practice." Great article in The WSJ today, and more background at wiki.

Elizabeth Holmes, ten years younger than McCormick reports to prison in Texas today, and will be a year older than McCormick is now when she completes her 11-year sentence, though I assume she will be released early for good behavior and on humanitarian grounds (she has two very young children). No links; story everywhere; beat to death (the story, not Elizabeth).

Grandstanding: apparently the B-M debt ceiling bill will be "released" from a US House committee within the next twelve hours and the US House will vote on the bill, most likely pass it, and, if so, forward the bill to the US Senate. 

It looks like the US Senate will have plenty of time to consider the bill. If the "x-date" is June 5, 2023, that means the "heavy lifting" for June has been done: the military active duty and military pensioners have been paid. The US Senate won't prevent checks from going to seniors on social security, those who vote in lopsided numbers, unlike children and infants who don't vote at all. 

I suppose it will be a "game of chicken" -- see how close "they" can came before they reach "x-hour." I guess June 5 is next Monday so they can do some last minute things this week, then back to the House to line up the two versions over the weekend and have it on the president's desk on Monday.

Photo op Monday, June 5, 2023.

*****************************
Investing

Over the weekend I started thinking about investing in TSLA. Earlier in the week or over the weekend (I forget) I posted the four reasons why TSLA has really excited me. I've never invested in TSLA but I'm pretty sure by the end of June, 2023, I will be a TSLA investor. It would be nice to have a bit more granularity, as they say, with regard to the Tesla pick-up.

There's a lot of buzz right now regarding the Cybertruck, and without question, TSLA will pop when we see VIN ID TSLA000000001 roll out of the Giga Texas manufacturing plant. I won't be buying TSLA as a trader or a short-term investment. I have a rolling 30-year horizon.

Disclaimer: this is not an investment site.  Do not make any investment, financial, job, career, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here.

All my posts are done quickly: there will be content and typographical errors. If anything on any of my posts is important to you, go to the source. If/when I find typographical / content errors, I will correct them

Again, all my posts are done quickly. There will be typographical and content errors in all my posts. If any of my posts are important to you, go to the source

***********************
QCOM

The last year or so has not been good for QCOM, like many of the beat-down tech companies. 

Over the last five days, up 11.5% and today, up 5%. 

Compare with AVGO: up 16.5% over the last five days; down 1% today, but the last six months, up 45%.

Four New Permits -- May 30, 2023

Locator: 44796B.   

Active rigs: 36.

WTI: $69.60.

Natural gas: $2.308.

Four new permits, #39927 - #29930, inclusive:

  • Operator: Neptune Operaring
  • Field: Pronghorn (McKenzie)
  • Comments:
    • Neptune has permits for two Fritz wells and two Jacobson wells, NENE 20-150-101, 
      • to be sited between 490 FNL and 589 FNL and at 375 FEL

One permit canceled:

  • 31619, CLR, Juneau 8-11HSL1, Williams County;

Seven producing wells (DUCs) reported as completed:

  • 38690, 2,730, Ovintiv, Clear Creek Federal 152-97-36-25-5H,
  • 38691, 2,193, Ovintiv, Clear Creek Federal 152-97-36-25-12H,
  • 38692, 2,148, Ovintiv, Clear Creek Federal 152-97-36-25-6H,
  • 38752, 1,524, Ovintiv, Clear Creek Federal 152-97-36-25-7H,
  • 38753, 1,180, Ovintiv, Clear Creek Federal 152-97-36-25-13H,
  • 38754, 891, Ovintiv, Clear Creek Federal 152-97-36-25-14H,
  • 38875, 1,476, Ovintiv, Clear Creek Federal 152-97-36-25-8H,

More And More The Emperors Have No Clothes -- May 30, 2023

Locator: 44796INV.

A reader tells me that Charlie Munger says we're in a "mild recession." 

Link here. The US economic numbers released last week -- unemployment, wages, spending -- no evidence whatsoever we're in a recession. If we're in a recession, it's a very strange recession. 

Or is Charlie Munger looking for an explanation for BRK's ten-year return?

Link here.

I guess it depends on one's definition of "recession."

Disclaimer: this is not an investment site.  Do not make any investment, financial, job, career, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here.

All my posts are done quickly: there will be content and typographical errors. If anything on any of my posts is important to you, go to the source. If/when I find typographical / content errors, I will correct them

Again, all my posts are done quickly. There will be typographical and content errors in all my posts. If any of my posts are important to you, go to the source.

WPX Pennington Wells In Big Bend

Locator: 10001PENNINGTON.   

Updates

November 16, 2023: two DUCs reported as completed:

  • 39170, 947, WPX, Pennington 16-15HCL, Big Bend,
  • 39167, 768, WPX, Pennington 16-15-14HY, Big Bend,

Original Post

Incredibly complicated spacing and ownership in this immediate area: WPX vs Slawson.

The map:


The WPX Pennington wells:

  • 39170, dry, WPX, Pennington 16-15HCL, Big Bend, NOT DRY, see above;
  • 39169, drl, WPX, Pennington 16-15HZ, Big Bend,
  • 39168, conf, WPX, Pennington 16-15HB, Big Bend,
  • 39167, conf, WPX, Pennington 16-15HY, Big Bend, see above;
  • 39166, conf, WPX, Pennington 16-15HA, Big Bend,


  • 18135, 599, WPX/Zenergy, Pennington 16-15H, Van Hook, one section, t9/09; cum 297K 4/23; production since 2019; off line 5/23; remains off line 9/23;

Recent production of #18135:

PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN3-20233126322806607248324110
BAKKEN2-20232821551857452152114560
BAKKEN1-202314111111971956536190
BAKKEN12-20223118811851502286728220
BAKKEN11-20223022942287738178417380
BAKKEN10-20223130423252879341233400
BAKKEN9-20223031193026946333432660
BAKKEN8-202231335132491095251824470
BAKKEN7-202231377239101386304829770
BAKKEN6-202230349034661354261125420
BAKKEN5-202231315930011199152314530
BAKKEN4-202230257727081148301602951
BAKKEN3-202231207020624353180
BAKKEN2-20220000000
BAKKEN1-20220000000
BAKKEN12-20210000000
BAKKEN11-20210000000
BAKKEN10-20210000000
BAKKEN9-20210000000
BAKKEN8-20210000000
BAKKEN7-20210000000
BAKKEN6-20210000000
BAKKEN5-20210000000
BAKKEN4-20211100000
BAKKEN3-20213000016500
BAKKEN2-20210000000
BAKKEN1-20210000000
BAKKEN12-20200000000
BAKKEN11-20200000000
BAKKEN10-2020002380000
BAKKEN9-20200000000
BAKKEN8-20200000000
BAKKEN7-20200000000
BAKKEN6-20200000000
BAKKEN5-202010012000
BAKKEN4-20200000000
BAKKEN3-20200000000
BAKKEN2-20200000000
BAKKEN1-20200000000
BAKKEN12-20190000000
BAKKEN11-20190000000
BAKKEN10-201919031140
BAKKEN9-201930915749891699997439
BAKKEN8-20193197596510218091035509
BAKKEN7-2019318869071131648908475
BAKKEN6-201930843778801564421267
BAKKEN5-201931871960781620395961
BAKKEN4-2019308568238615903201013
BAKKEN3-2019318791013731632527840
BAKKEN2-201926785773701456632601

The Ovintiv Rolfsrud Wells In Westberg

Locator: 10001ROLFSRUD.

Updates

June 10, 2023:

Locator: 44899OVV. 

From NDIC hearing docket, June, 2022. This is a case, not a permit.

  • 29421, Ovintiv, thirteen wells on a 1280-acre unit; Westberg-Bakken, on an established 1280-acre unit; sections, 29/32-152-96; McKenzie County;

Wells of interest:

  • 38190, drl, Ovintiv, Olson 152-96-30-31-6H, Westberg, t4/21; cum 216K4/23;
  • 38191, drl, Ovintiv, Rolfsrud 152-96-32-14H, Westberg, t4/21; cum 282K4/23;
  • 38192, drl, Ovintiv, Olson 152-96-30-31-16H, Westberg, t4/21; cum 174K4/23;
  • 38193, drl, Ovintiv, Rolfsrud 152-96-32-7HLW, Westberg, t4/21; cum 282K4/23;
  • 16942, 521, Ovintiv, Rolfsrud 1-32H, Westberg, t10/08; cum 162K 1/23; off line;
  • 23022, 1,645, Ovintiv, Rolfsrud 152-96-32-2H, Westberg, t7/12; cum 201K 11/22; off line;
  • 17807, 2,182, Ovintiv, Rolfsrud 1-29H, Westberg, t5/10; cum 180K 9/22; off line;


  • 28477, 823, Ovintiv, Rolfsrud State 152-96-32-12H, Westberg, t11/14; cum 255K 3/23; off line;
  • 28476, 1,620, Ovintiv, Rolfsrud State 152-96-32-3HX, Westberg, t11/14; cum 238K 3/23; off line;
  • 28475, 1,267, Ovintiv, Rolfsrud State 152-96-32-11H, Westberg, t11/14; cum 169K 3/23; off line;
  • 29157, 945, Ovintiv, Rolfsrud 152-96-32-13HLW, Westberg, t11/14; cum 261K4/23;
  • 26532, 1,508, Ovintiv, Rolfsrud 152-96-32-1H, Westberg, t11/14; cum 248K 4/32;
  • 26533, 941, Ovintiv, Rolfsrud 152-96-32-10H, Westberg, t11/14; cum 240K 3/23; off line;
  • 26534, 1,155, Ovintiv, Rolfsrud 152-96-32-2HZ, Westberg, t11/14; cum 227K 3/23; off line;

  • 39189, drl, Ovintiv, Rolfsrud 152-96-32-29-4H, Westberg,
  • 39190, drl, Ovintiv, Rolfsrud 152-96-32-29-15H, Westberg,
  • 39191, drl, Ovintiv, Rolfsrud 152-96-32-29-5H, Westberg,
  • 39192, drl, Ovintiv, Rolfsrud 152-96-32-29-16H, Westberg,

Original Post   

The map:

The wells:

  • 38193, drl/A, Ovintiv, Rolfsrud 152-96-29-7HLW, Westberg, t--; cum 280K 3/23;
  • 38192, drl/A, Ovintiv, Rolfsrud 152-96-30-31-16H, Westberg, t--; cum 172K 3/23;
  • 38191, drl/A, Ovintiv, Rolfsrud 152-96-29-32-14H, Westberg, t--; cum 278K 3/23;
  • 38190, drl/A, Ovintiv, Rolfsrud 152-96-30-31-6H, Westberg, t--; cum 212K 3/23;
  • 17807, 2,182, Ovintiv, Rolfsrud 1-29H, Westberg, t5/10; cum 180K 9/22; off line; watch for halo effect;
  • 28477, 823, Ovintiv, Rolfsrud 152-96-29-32-2H, Westberg, t11/14; cum 255K 3/23; back on line;
  • 28476, 1,620, Ovintiv, Rolfsrud 152-96-29-32-3HX, Westberg, t11/14; cum 238K 3/23; back on line;
  • 28475, 1,267, Ovintiv, Rolfsrud 152-96-29-32-11H, Westberg, t11/14; cum 169K 3/23; never off line;
  • 29157, 945, Ovintiv, Rolfsrud 152-96-29-32-13LW, Westberg, t11/14; cum 260K 3/23;
  • 26532, 1,508, Ovintiv, Rolfsrud 152-96-29-32-1H, Westberg, t11/14; cum 248K 3/23; back on line;
  • 26533, 941, Ovintiv, Rolfsrud 152-96-29-32-10H, Westberg, t11/14; cum 240K 3/23;
  • 26534, 1,155, Ovintiv, Rolfsrud 152-96-29-32-2HZ, Westberg, t11/14; cum 227K 3/23;

For Sophia -- May 30, 2023

Locator: 44795SOPHIA.   

Coming in by stagecoach this fad won't reach the Bakken until next year.

Toto: We're Not In Kansas Any More -- May 30, 2023

Locator: 44794SC.   

Chips, semiconductor: link here.

It's Not A Bubble Yet -- Wharton's Jeremy Siegel -- May 30, 2023

Locator: 44793SC.  

Do you believe in life after love?

This has got to be a short squeeze.  Link here.



Locator: 44793INV. 

Disclaimer: this is not an investment site.  Do not make any investment, financial, job, career, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here.

All my posts are done quickly: there will be content and typographical errors. If anything on any of my posts is important to you, go to the source. If/when I find typographical / content errors, I will correct them

Again, all my posts are done quickly. There will be typographical and content errors in all my posts. If any of my posts are important to you, go to the source.

NVDA pre-market: up another 4.7%; up over $18; trading at $407.69; market cap > $1 trillion.

  • “It’s not a bubble yet,” Wharton’s Jeremy Siegel.

NVDA: super … as in supercomputer.

101 Days Of Summer Begin -- May 30, 2023

Locator: 44792B. 

Optimistic: link here.

**************************
Back to the Bakken

Active rigs: 35.

WTI: $70.33 (it's Monday, what dd you expect, green?).

Natural gas: $2.320.

Peter Zeihan newsletter. E-mail campaign archive. Mark Perry: Carpe Diem.

Wednesday, May 31, 2023: 58 for the month; 110 for the quarter, 365 for the year
 None (there was no November 31, 2022)

Tuesday, May 30, 2023: 58 for the month; 110 for the quarter, 365 for the year
39293, conf, Petro-Hunt, Hot Rod 149-102-27B-26-2H,
39241, conf, CLR, Meadowlark 4-6HSL,
39191, conf, Ovintiv USA, Rolfsrud 152-96-32-29-5H,
39167, conf, WPX, Pennington 16-15-14HY,
36292, conf, WPX, Skunk Creek 3-24-25-14HA,
34952, conf, Formentera Operations, PTL4 03-27 164-92 B,
34950, conf, Formentera Operations, FLX3 28-33 163-91 B,
8324 (no typo), conf, White Rock, Barkland 1-18-2A,

Monday, May 29, 2023: 50 for the month; 102 for the quarter, 357 for the year
39200, conf, Slawson, Voyager 4-28H,

Sunday, May 28, 2023: 49 for the month; 101 for the quarter, 356 for the year
39192, conf, Ovintiv, Rolfsrud 152-9632-29-16H,
39168, conf, WPX, Pennington 16-15HB,

Saturday, May 27, 2023: 47 for the month; 99 for the quarter, 354 for the year
39240, conf, CLR, Skachenko FIU 6-13H,
38878, conf, Whiting, Smith 12-7-2H,

RBN Energy: crude oil export volumes will drive US production growth. Previously posted.

For the U.S. oil patch, exports are the lifeblood of today’s market. U.S. refineries are operating at more than 90% of their rated capacity and using as much domestically produced light-sweet shale oil as their sophisticated equipment will allow. That means that virtually all of the incremental U.S. unconventional light-sweet crude oil production will need to be piped to export terminals along the Gulf Coast, loaded onto tankers, and shipped to refineries overseas. In today’s RBN blog, we discuss what this undeniable link between crude oil exports and production growth means for U.S. E&Ps and midstream companies — and the future of the oil and gas industry.

NVDA -- Magic Number — $407.69 — And Other One-Liners — No Links — You’re On Your Own — May 30, 2023

Locator: 44791INV. 

Disclaimer: this is not an investment site.  Do not make any investment, financial, job, career, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here.

All my posts are done quickly: there will be content and typographical errors. If anything on any of my posts is important to you, go to the source. If/when I find typographical / content errors, I will correct them

Again, all my posts are done quickly. There will be typographical and content errors in all my posts. If any of my posts are important to you, go to the source.

NVDA pre-market: up another 4.7%; up over $18; trading at $407.69; market cap > $1 trillion.

  • “It’s not a bubble yet,” Wharton’s Jeremy Siegel.

NVDA: super … as in supercomputer.

AVGO: up $18 in pre-market trading.

AAPL: similar. Just not as much.

Foxconn: hikes wages.

EVs: four huge developments change everything:

  • Los Angeles EV trucking mandates;
  • Tesla - Ford supercharger network
  • Japan: Daimler - Toyota “merger”
  • High interest rates
Japan coking coal: one word — record.

Tea leaves: current version of B-M deal is DOA. We’ll know by 4:30 p.m. CT, Wednesday, May 31, 2023.
  • Wait until “everyone” learns McCarthy SUSPENDED the act for two years. Holy mackerel. There's only one way one can "delay" the next default for two years: suspend the act. 
    • If this deal is approved, we have a new precedent -- and voila -- the act is dead!If Congress can suspend the act for two years, why not do that in perpetuity? 
    • not only that, McCarthy turned the purse strings over to the high spenders;
    • one needs to remember from which state McCarthy comes. 
    • I have no dog in this fight; I'm simply a spectator, but I occasionally like intellectual honesty
    • time for McCarthy to go?
  • Expect another Janet Yellen headline.
Dina Powell: what a great country, what a great state.

Cinderella team: Miami Heat.

Screwiest playoff “system”: NCAA Division I men’s baseball. Sort of like setting the date for Easter.

Just kidding: Ford does a “180” on AM radio.

Vaccine: worthless? Observational studies certainly suggest so. No clinical studies accomplished despite updated (bivalent) vaccine has been available for nine months.

Putin’s War: drones hit residential Moscow for first time.

Sweden, new NATO member: Erdogan, “Here, hold my yogurt.”