Apple: To End "Buy Now, Pay Later" -- June 17, 2024

Locator: 47875APPLE.  

Tag: FinTech; Affirm. Buy now, pay later.

Link here.

Comes just a year after Apple introduced the consumer banking / credit card service.

From the linked article:

Apple is ending its buy now, pay later service, just over a year after launching it. The service, called Apple Pay Later, allowed customers to split purchases between $50 and $1,000 into four payments spread over six weeks with no interest and no fees.

The initiative, unveiled in March 2023, was part of the company’s push to use finance to deepen its relationship with consumers. It competed with buy now, pay later companies such as Affirm and Klarna.

Apple’s website said Monday that the company is “no longer offering new loans” for Apple Pay Later, but that existing ones aren’t affected.

The company said it plans to offer a way for people to apply for buy now, pay later loans from other companies when they check out with Apple Pay, the company’s payment system. Last week, Apple said one of those companies would be Affirm, which it is adding as an option in the fall.

Citigroup and Synchrony Financial  will also be a part of the rollout, Apple said. The company is also adding a scannable code that will help shoppers use Apple Pay across the web.

Color me perplexed.

At CNBC. 

Was it simply more bother than it was worth?

Reading Tonight -- June 17, 2024

Locator: 47874READING.  

Arrived today from Amazon:

• Goodbye To All That, Robert Graves, first published in 1929; c. renewed, 2018.

Arrived by USPS:

• The New Yorker, June 17, 2024.
• The Atlantic, July / August, 2024.

SoC / SiP Update With Focus On Apple M4 -- June 17, 2024

Locator: 47873M4.    

Tag: Intel, INTC.

My links to tech, at the "Tech" page tabbed above:

 Chips, semiconductor: link here.

• Home page for tech: link here.
• The cloud: link here.  
• Streaming: link here. Streaming wars.
• Spatial computing: link here.
• Generative AI: link here. 
• AI: Apple intelligence.
  
• Apple Silicon: link here.
• chip count updates.
• chip count.
  
• Supercomputers: link here.
• Data centers: link here. 
• System on a chip (SOC): link here.
• Apple Intelligence (AI), short title, Siri: link here. 
• WWDC24: link here.

Apple Silicon, perhaps the most important three paragraphs in the tech world:

Apple silicon refers to a series of system on a chip (SoC) and system in a package (SiP) processors designed by Apple Inc., mainly using the ARM architecture. 

They are the basis of Mac, iPhone, iPad, Apple TV, Apple Watch, AirPods, AirTag, HomePod, and Apple Vision Pro devices. 

Apple announced its plan to switch Mac computers from Intel processors to Apple silicon at WWDC 2020 on June 22, 2020.

The first Macs built with the Apple M1 chip were unveiled on November 10, 2020. As of June 2023, the entire Mac lineup uses Apple silicon chips. Apple fully controls the integration of Apple silicon chips with the company's hardware and software products. Johny Srouji is in charge of Apple's silicon design.

Manufacturing of the chips is outsourced to semiconductor contract manufacturers such as TSMC. 

I read and re-read those three paragraphs not infrequently. 

Apple has a number of SoC / SiP series of chips. See link above. 

The M-series is found in "every" family of Apple hardware, but not necessarily in every model in every "family" of Apple hardware.

The "M" series:
M1: revolutionary
M2: evolutionary
M3: evolutionary
M4: revolutionary

From the link above, the M4:

Main article: Apple M4

Apple announced the M4 chip on May 7, 2024, along with the new seventh-generation iPad Pro models. The M4 is based on the N3E process rather than the N3B process used by the M3, and contains 28 billion transistors. 

It has three or four performance cores, six efficiency cores and ten GPU cores. Apple claims the M4 has up to 1.5x faster CPU performance compared to the M2.

Note the "N3E" reference.

From Reddit posted recently with even more recent updates, link here. 

There is a lot of information packed in that thread that will take you down any number of rabbit holes.

I found this one particularly interesting, from an investor's point of view:

One assumes this market share is "outside" the Apple family of chips.  

More importantly:

• that goose egg following Intel is pretty shocking, for lack of a better word.

So, anyway, another attempt to put this puzzle together.  

Later: more and the M4, link here.

The M4 is expected to be announced later today during Apple’s ‘Let Loose’ event, and with the company already employing the use of TSMC’s 3nm technology before, we immediately assumed that the new silicon would be fabricated on this lithography. However, one report states that unlike the M3 powering various Macs and mass produced on the ‘N3B’ architecture, Apple’s M4 will switch to the updated ‘N3E’ process, resulting in various improvements. The report also mentions that the upcoming SoC will arrive in three variants, which is nothing unusual regarding Apple Silicon releases.

TSMC’s 3nm ‘N3E’ architecture enables better yields, higher computational performance, and improved power efficiency when directly compared to the ‘N3B’ node. With the China Times reporting that the M4 will transition to the improved manufacturing process, Apple can effectively cut down its component costs by having more supply at hand. The same SoC is also said to be found in other upcoming machines, such as entry-level Macs, so with an excess chip supply in its possession, the technology giant can have adequate shipment available for customers.

Another Huge Day For Traders And Investors -- June 17, 2024

Locator: 47872B.

Chart of the day: AVGO. Right now, the crawler on CNBC, after hours, during "Mad Money," AVGO is trading up another $18 / share, which takes it back to its intra-day high today:

US equity markets: another huge day. 

Thought: a couple of years ago, my store-brand bread was 99 cents a loaf and it quickly went to $1.19, then $129 and now today it's $1.49. 

Was this store-brand bread at 99 cents undervalued a few years ago and now at $1.49 it's finally "fair value"? One might ask that with regard to tech equities. Bottom line: is it any surprise that the market is taking off now that the pandemic and the Covid lockdown are well beyond what we see in our rear-view mirrors? Was Nvidia undervalued a few years ago and now its finally at "fair value"?

Before the close, earlier today:

At the close, another record high for the S&P 500 and the NASDAQ:

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Back to the Bakken

WTI: $80.48, up 2.6%; up $2.03 / gallon. Whoo-hoo! Rystad predicts almost no oil supply growth in 2024. Link here. From the linked article:

Rystad Energy on Monday projected that global oil supply growth would slow in 2024 and potentially the following year, due to the extension of OPEC+ voluntary cuts and the cartel’s demand forecast.

Based on the most recent OPEC+ guidance, total global oil supply growth will be near zero in 2024, which could render this year the first since 2020 with zero supply growth, Rystad said, estimating expect supply growth at around 80,000 barrels per day for 2024, down from earlier expectations of 900,000 bpd, which had been made in early June Reuters reported on Monday.

Rystad noted that OPEC+ cuts will take 830,000 bpd off the market in 2024 and 1.04 million bpd off the market next year, with U.S. shale being the most “trustworthy source” of supply growth. 

Active rigs: 38.

Five new permits, #40842 - #40846, inclusive:

• Operators: CLR (4): Grayson Mill
• Fields: Little Knife (Dunn); Sixmile (Williams)
• Comments:
• CLR has permits for four Catron wells, NENW 26-145-97; 
• to be sited 525 FNL and between 2027 FWL and 2315 FWL;
• Grayson Mill has a permit for a Grand national well, NWSW 34-153-103, 
• to be sited 1494 FSL and 388 FWL

Four permits renewed:

• BR: two Kellogg Ranch and two Nordeng permits, all in Elidah oil field, McKenzie County.

Holy Mackerel! Is Anyone Paying Attention? WTI Is Up Over 1% Today — Trending Toward $80 (Again) — June 17, 2024

Locator: 47871WTI.

WTI: at $80. Link here. 

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Saudi

Saudi crude oil: domestic consumption. Wow, I don't know how many times we've discussed this on the blog. Look at this, absolutely amazing:

The Shoaiba power plant, a sprawling complex of giant boilers and towering chimneys, is the improbable ground zero of the forces reshaping the energy market. Located in Saudi Arabia, it’s the world’s largest oil-fired electricity generator. At its peak, it gulps about 200,000 barrels a day, more than enough to meet the daily consumption of a small European nation like Portugal. 

If global oil demand is to peak within the next five years, as the International Energy Agency just predicted, it will require more than mass adoption of electric vehicles. Ironically, Riyadh will have to slash its own use of its homemade power source, making the Shoaiba and similar power plants the stuff of yesteryear. 

The staggering amount of oil the Saudis consume – 3.7 million barrels a day, the world’s fourth most, behind only the US, China and India — means the kingdom would play a key role in shaping demand to 2030, potentially accelerating peak consumption – or delaying it.

Some numbers:

• population, Saudi Arabia: 36 million 
• consumes 3. 7 million bopd
• population, California: 39 million
• consumes 1.8 million bopd

Alternate energy sources:

• Saudi gives lip service to alternate energy sources to production electricity (most recently: nuclear) but in fact there is nothing so cheap as Saudi's oil for domestic consumption;
• nuclear sounds nice, but we're talking years and a major transformation in thinking

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Back to the Bakken

WTI: $79.82.Whoo-hoo!

Tuesday, June 18, 2024: 68 for the month; 132 for the quarter, 331 for the year
40096, conf, Whiting, Sanish Bay W 5293 34-1 8B,

Monday, June 17, 2024: 67 for the month; 131 for the quarter, 330 for the year
40095, conf, Whiting, Sanish Bay W 5293 34-1 7T,
39226, conf, Hess, BL-Herfindahl-156-95-3031H-5,

Sunday, June 16, 2024: 65 for the month; 129 for the quarter, 328 for the year
40094, conf, Whiting, Sanish Bay W 5293 34-1 6B,

Saturday, June 15, 2024: 64 for the month; 128 for the quarter, 327 for the year
40093, conf, Whiting, Sanish Bay W 5293 34-1 5T,
39225, conf, Hess, BL-Herfindahl-156-95-3031H-4,

RBN Energy: an update on "sweetening" high-H2S, High-CO2 associated gas in the Permian.

Some of the most prolific, crude-oil-saturated rock in the Permian’s Delaware Basin and Central Platform comes with a nasty complication — namely, associated gas with very high levels of hydrogen sulfide (H2S0 and carbon dioxide (CO20. But rather than walking away from all those potential barrels, one midstream company saw the treatment of high-H2S high-CO2-gas as a market niche worth pursuing. Backed by commitments from Black Bay Energy Capital and an area E&P, Piñon Midstream has been expanding a system in southeastern New Mexico that not only gathers the super-corrosive gas and removes almost all the H2S and CO2, it also permanently sequesters the stuff deep underground through a pair of 18,000-foot-deep, Class II injection wells. In today’s RBN blog, we will provide an update on Piñon’s Dark Horse Treating Facility and the company’s plan for a further build-out of its sour gas system.

More And More It Appears BRK Is Foundering / Flounding / Struggling -- June 17, 2024

Locator: 47870BRK.

TSM vs BRK: famously sold TSM after holding it for only a few months -- 

Stayed with SNOW, instead:

IYKYK:

• SNOW: software
• TSM: chip manufacturing; joined at the hip with Apple
• software? dead money since a month ago and likely to stay that way a long, long time

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BRK and EVs 

Link here.

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Disclaimer Briefly Reminder

• I am inappropriately exuberant about the US economy and the US market, 
• I am also inappropriately exuberant about all things Apple. 
• See disclaimer. This is not an investment site. 
• Disclaimer: this is not an investment site. Do not make any investment, financial, job, career, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here. All my posts are done quickly: there will be content and typographical errors. If anything on any of my posts is important to you, go to the source. If/when I find typographical / content errors, I will correct them.
• Reminder: I am inappropriately exuberant about the US economy and the US market, 
• I am also inappropriately exuberant about all things Apple.   

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Buffett: For The Past Five Years, "Nothing Of Value To Buy Out There"

With regard to BRK-B and MU, check every time period, 3 months, 6 months, one year, and five years. I don't check back farther than five years, and before deciding to buy / not buy, most important data point is the one-year chart.

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The Book Page 

Arrived today, from Amazon: Goodbye To All That, Robert Graves, c. 1957; renewed 2018. Everyman's Library. 

The Area Under The Curve -- June 17, 2024

Locator: 47869ECON.

So much for all that talk about personal debt.  

Area under the curve.

Link here.

And They Say The iPhone Is Expensive -- Oh, Give Me A Break -- June 17, 2024

Locator: 47868AAPL.

Link here.

And they say the iPHone is expensive. LOL.

When the reviews come in, the high-end iPhone camera will compare favorably with this one-trick pony.

A Picture Is Worth A Thousand Words -- June 17, 2024

Locator: 47867B.

Link here. 

Tech Futures: At 0700 Hours, Monday Morning, Tech Futures Are Insane, Considering Advances Last Week -- June 17, 2024

Locator: 47866TECH.

NVDA vs INTC: I wasn't going to link this but then I noted some "explanations" which are quite helpful. Link here. It's a very long video.

Down in pre-market trading:

• BRK-B
• INTC
• AMD

Up:

EVs -- June 17, 2024

Locator: 47865EVS.

Biggest bargain for US shoppers within the next 24 months: privately owned vehicles (POVs), and in this order, timeframe in parentheses):

• used EVs (now)
• used ICE (in next six months)
• new EVs (now through the next 24 months)
• new ICE (six months through the next 24 months)

EVs and Hertz, link here:

From fantasy to fact: the EV slowdown gets real, link here:

Only One Sector Of The Economy Has Any Effect On The Entire Rest Of The US Economy: Housing -- June 17, 2024

Locator: 47864ECON.

Only one sector matters any more: housing. And that sector won't be solved any time soon, if ever. Certainly not in my investing lifetime.

• everything else is part of the US Goldilocks economy; everything else is manageable; and almost everything else is going to improve even more over the next 24 months. 
• the only sector that is "out of control" but which does not have any effect on the overall economy is secondary education. 
• women's reproductive rights has become a terrifying issue for 14% of the US population, but it won't affect the economy; and it's hard to call it "out of control" -- 
  

Actually, the only other sector that is out of control is the media, and specifically, the media that covers politics, but in the big scheme of things, politics has very little effect on the daily life of most Americans. 

• exhibit A: all that talk and the federal / state action regarding IVF? Two percent of all births, annually, in the US, are the result of IVF.
• swamping IVF: babies born to new arrivals from the southern border: born in the USA -- fastest way to gain citizenship --
• and the US government isn't going to separate newborn babies (citizens) from their parents, regardless of status
• social security numbers "automatically" provided to all newborns

Biggest bargain for US shoppers within the next 24 months: privately owned vehicles (POVs), and in this order, timeframe in parentheses):

• used EVs (now)
• used ICE (in next six months)
• new EVs (now through the next 24 months)
• new ICE (six months through the next 24 months)

The Fed: whatever the Fed does now will simply affect American psychologically; 

• whatever actions the Fed takes over the 12 next months (through July, 2025) will have no material effect on Main Street or for home buyers. 
• whatever the Fed does now, however, could have an exaggerated effect on the market, for investors, and for the wealthy.

Most interesting consumer sector to watch over the next twelve months: fast food restaurants. Not talking tickers; talking headlines, prices.

Second most interesting "sector" to watch, not the ticker symbol but the earnings and headline stories:

• Walmart
• Amazon
• Target

Most interesting ticker to watch this next year? DIS. Maybe BRK.

Boeing. Seriously, why would any airline choose Boeing over Airbus?

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Tech Revenue

Link here.