A New Week -- April 2, 2023

Locator: 44290B.

ATT: maintains its dividend at 27.75 cents; pays 5.77%. 

OPEC oil cut: this seems to be the back story, link here to Bloomberg: 

• OPEC feels US shale can no longer make up the difference caused by any cut by OPEC;
• in addition, the US administration is clearly favoring a "no more drilling" policy; and,
  
• with Russia cutting production through the end of the year (2023), it was almost too good for OPEC not to cut production.

Freeport-McMoRan: link here.

Personal finance: the current buzz among Gen Z? Cash stuffing. 

Psst: the concept has been around for decades. Money guru Dave Ramsey has advocated "cash stuffing" for decades, though I don't know if he ever called it as such, or patented/copyrighted the concept. Even back on October 25, 2022, it was "old."

There's a YouTube video from April 21, 2020, explaining the concept.

Billy Is Back And The Weather Is Great -- April 2, 2023

Locator: 44289B.

Local weather forecast: north Texas, DFW:

Egypt: in trouble? Link here.

Billy is back. Link here.

Russia: it's not just OPEC. Look at this. Russia now says it will maintain the "cut" of 500,000 bbls crude oil through the end of the year. Routine maintenance not going well. Link here.

Simple addition: add up all these "announced" cuts and we are solidly above two million bbls/day.

*************************
The Art Page

Art in context.

"Song of the Lark" by Jules Breton, 1884. Currently hanging in the Art Institute of Chicago.

Link here.

Focus On Fracking; WTI / Brent Surging With Unexpected OPEC Cut ; McDonald's Prepares To Announce C-Suite Cuts / Reorg -- April 2, 2023

Locator: 44288B.

Focus on Fracking: link here.

• natural gas ​​f​ell below $2 for first time in 30 months​,
• ends first quarter down a record 50%​;
• oil imports at a two-year low
• EIA's fudge factor update (fifth paragraph at link): 1,803,000 bbls added, line 13, EIA form.

Opening comment: it should be noted that many (most?) US shale operators say they can at least break even on $40-WTI.

• production of 50,000 bopd:
• at $40 / bbl = $2 million / day
• at $80 / bbl = $4 million / day
• CLR: before it went private --
• around 200,000 bopd: $40 x 200,000 = $8 million  / day
• 200,000 bopd: $80 x 200,000 = $16 million / day
• 365 days x $16 million = $5,840 million

Note: I often make simple arithmetic errors and, in addition, some of the data may be incorrect.

Panic in the White House: oil surges. Panic?

Ovintiv: several sources -- Ovintiv in $4 billion deal to buy EnCap's assets in the Midland Basin (Permian):

• Reuters:
• @TheTerminal: 
• Bloomberg:
  
• EnCap Investments: website.
• Representatives at Denver-based Ovintiv and EnCap didn’t immediately respond to requests for comment.
• Houston-based EnCap has been marketing its positions in the Midland Basin, which includes assets from Black Swan Oil & Gas, Piedra Resources and Petrolegacy Energy.
• The Midland Basin is part of the Permian Basin of West Texas and New Mexico, the most productive oil field in the US.

McDonald's: link here. 

There Is Precedent ... But Not To This Scale -- April 2, 2023

Locator: 44287B.

I may devote this entire blog to links to my twitter feed earlier today. 

I will start with this one: "... but not to this scale."

DC: in a panic! How do "we" tell Americans we're not going to fill the SPR this year? It looks like we're going to have to release more oil from the SPR. And, oh, by the way, we are: 26 million bbls of oil will be released from the reserve this month, April, 2023. 

My twitter feed after 5:00 p.m. CT, April 2, 2023: 

FT op-ed: link here.

WTI surges, Barron's: link here.

WTI Surges -- April 2, 2023

Locator: 44286B.

As a reminder, Warren's Berkshire Hathaway, owns about 25%of OXY. One wonders how Bill Ackman is doing. Or Cathie Wood. Or George Soros.

*****************************
Soccer Girl

My Twitter Feed Is Going Nuts -- Talked About This Earlier Today -- April 2, 2023

Locator: 44285B.

My twitter feed is going nuts.

OPEC is misreading the news.

Saudi: payback time for the "West" (read USA) screwing Credit Suisse.

 Folks may want to start tracking "trending tickers."

From CNN futures:

Initial Production Data For Wells Coming Off Confidential List This Next Week -- April 2, 2023

Locator: 44284B

The wells:

• 39184, conf, Ragnar Exploration, Galt 1-22H, Fryburg,

Date	Oil Runs	MCF Sold
1-2023	2695	0

• 38875, conf, Ovintiv, Clear Creek Federal 152-97-36-25-8H, Westberg, no production data,
  
• 38845, conf, Enerplus, Embroider 149-93-05A-8H, these wells are tracked here; Mandaree,

Date	Oil Runs	MCF Sold
1-2023	24919	25239
12-2022	10817	13255
11-2022	14360	14780
10-2022	10482	11988

• 38754, conf, Ovintiv, Clear Creek Federal 152-97-36-25-14H, Westberg, no production data,
• 36145, conf, BR, Phantom Ship 1B UTFH, Elidah, no production data,
• 38764, conf, Whiting, Locken Federal 12-11TFX, Sanish,

Date	Oil Runs	MCF Sold
1-2023	9432	9209
12-2022	8401	6410
11-2022	12378	10148
10-2022	1331	1558

• 38753, conf, Ovintiv, Clear Creek Federal 152-97-36-25-13H, Westberg, no production data,
• 38666, conf, Enerplus, Eyelet 149-93-05A-08H, these wells are tracked here; Mandaree:

Date	Oil Runs	MCF Sold
1-2023	29425	27377
11-2022	23789	23432
10-2022	26744	28306

• 38865, conf, Liberty Resources, CA S 158-93-21-23-4MBHX, Enget Lake,
  

Date	Oil Runs	MCF Sold
1-2023	24394	24620
12-2022	13189	15829
11-2022	26861	27461
10-2022	15783	19551

• 38440, conf, Hess, EN-Sable-157-93-3534H-5, these wells are tracked here; Sorkness, 

Date	Oil Runs	MCF Sold
1-2023	17513	17527
12-2022	17771	17225
11-2022	8518	3454
10-2022	24689	14726

• 38846, conf, Enerplus, Patch 149-93-05A-08H, these wells are tracked here; Mandaree,

Date	Oil Runs	MCF Sold
1-2023	14280	13190
12-2022	14471	15663
11-2022	26977	25748
10-2022	18865	19659

• 38752, conf, Ovintiv, Clear Creek Federal 152-97-36-25-7H, Westberg, no production data,
• 38874, conf, Iron Oil Operating, Antelope 6-31-30H, Sather Lake,

Date	Oil Runs	MCF Sold
1-2023	13163	12324
12-2022	11035	9298
11-2022	11442	9820
10-2022	7882	6768

• 37568, conf, Iron Oil Operating, Antelope 4-31-30H, Sather Lake,

Date	Oil Runs	MCF Sold
1-2023	13635	12097
12-2022	9676	8741
11-2022	14717	13959
10-2022	12919	10824

• 38690, conf, Ovintiv, Clear Creek Federal 152-97-36-25-5H, Westberg, no production data,
• 38627, conf, Whiting, Kannianen 11-4-3H, Sanish,

Date	Oil Runs	MCF Sold
1-2023	5417	5004
12-2022	4982	3174
11-2022	9245	8802
10-2022	5012	440

• 38847, conf, Enerplus, Seam 149-93-05A-08H, Mandaree, these wells are tracked here;

Date	Oil Runs	MCF Sold
1-2023	25486	23123
12-2022	22791	27693
11-2022	28672	29830
10-2022	23600	19149

• 38823, conf, Whiting, Ryder Olson 31-1HR, Dollar Joe,

Date	Oil Runs	MCF Sold
1-2023	19518	48200
12-2022	7353	15151
11-2022	26468	56557
10-2022	33027	6464

• 38605, conf, Hess, EN-Farhart-156-93-0409H-9, Baskin,

Date	Oil Runs	MCF Sold
1-2023	18458	18533
12-2022	18761	19475
11-2022	12319	8025
10-2022	35380	14068

• 38322, conf, Whiting, Braaflat 11-11-2H, Sanish,

Date	Oil Runs	MCF Sold
1-2023	13579	20012
12-2022	15764	17288
11-2022	19756	21411
10-2022	5442	4290

• 38880, conf, Whiting, Richard Olson 31-1HR, Dollar Joe,

Date	Oil Runs	MCF Sold
1-2023	17577	44545
12-2022	19821	40913
11-2022	25688	52763
10-2022	34555	63506

• 38879, conf, Whiting, Mariah Olson 31-1HR2, Dollar Joe,

Date	Oil Runs	MCF Sold
1-2023	17336	46646
12-2022	14313	32446
11-2022	26258	59581
10-2022	35740	69230

• 38691, conf, Ovintiv, Clear Creek Federal 152-97-36-25-12H, Westberg, no production data,
• 31214, conf, BR, Gladstone 4-1-13TFH, Sand Creek, no production data,
• 38848, conf, Enerplus, Pattern 149-93-05A-08H-LL, Mandaree,

Date	Oil Runs	MCF Sold
1-2023	23526	21183
12-2022	10445	8490
11-2022	14104	12517
10-2022	18216	15804

• 38692, conf, Ovintiv, Clear Creek Federal 152-97-36-25-6H, Westberg, no production data, 

• 38543, conf, Whiting, Marlys Olson 31-1H, Dollar Joe,

Date	Oil Runs	MCF Sold
1-2023	14599	38684
12-2022	10230	22139
11-2022	20475	46832
10-2022	23677	49655
9-2022	0	256

Wells Coming Off The Confidential List This Next Week -- April 2, 2023

Locator: 44283B.

Wednesday, April 12, 2023: 26 for the month; 26 for the quarter, 281 for the year
39184, conf, Ragnar Exploration, Galt 1-22H,
38875, conf, Ovintiv, Clear Creek Federal 152-97-36-25-8H,

Tuesday, April 11, 2023: 24 for the month; 24 for the quarter, 279 for the year
None.

Monday, April 10, 2023: 24 for the month; 24 for the quarter, 279 for the year
38845, conf, Enerplus, Embroider 149-93-05A-8H, these wells are tracked here;
38754, conf, Ovintiv, Clear Creek Federal 152-97-36-25-14H,
36145, conf, BR, Phantom Ship 1B UTFH,

Sunday, April 9, 2023: 21 for the month; 21 for the quarter, 276 for the year
38764, conf, Whiting, Locken Federal 12-11TFX,
38753, conf, Ovintiv, Clear Creek Federal 152-97-36-25-13H,
38666, conf, Enerplus, Eyelet 149-93-05A-08H, these wells are tracked here;

Saturday, April 8, 2023: 18 for the month; 18 for the quarter, 273 for the year
38865, conf, Liberty Resources, CA S 158-93-21-23-4MBHX,
38440, conf, Hess, EN-Sable-157-93-3534H-5, these wells are tracked here;

Friday, April 7, 2023: 16 for the month; 16 for the quarter, 271 for the year
38846, conf, Enerplus, Patch 149-93-05A-08H, these wells are tracked here;
38752, conf, Ovintiv, Clear Creek Federal 152-97-36-25-7H,

Thursday, April 6, 2023: 14 for the month; 14 for the quarter, 269 for the year
38874, conf, Iron Oil Operating, Antelope 6-31-30H,
37568, conf, Iron Oil Operating, Antelope 4-31-30H,

Wednesday, April 5, 2023: 12 for the month; 12 for the quarter, 267 for the year
38690, conf, Ovintiv, Clear Creek Federal 152-97-36-25-5H,
38627, conf, Whiting, Kannianen 11-4-3H,

Tuesday, April 4, 2023: 10 for the month' 10 for the quarter, 265 for the year
38847, conf, Enerplus, Seam 149-93-05A-08H,
38823, conf, Whiting, Ryder Olson 31-1HR,
38605, conf, Hess, EN-Farhart-156-93-0409H-H
38322, conf, Whiting, Braaflat 11-11-2H,

Monday, April 3, 2023: 6 for the month; 4 for the quarter, 261 for the year
38880, conf, Whiting, Richard Olson 31-1HR,
38879, conf, Whiting, Mariah Olson 31-1HR2,
38691, conf, Ovintiv, Clear Creek Federal 152-97-36-25-12H,
31214, conf, BR, Gladstone 4-1-13TFH,

Sunday, April 2, 2023: 3 for the month; 3 for the quarter, 258 for the year
38848, conf, Enerplus, Pattern 149-93-05A-08H-LL,

Saturday, April 1, 2023: 2 for the month; 2 for the quarter, 257 for the year
38692, conf, Ovintiv, Clear Creek Federal 152-97-36-25-6H,
38543, conf, Whiting, Marlys Olson 31-1H,

Treadmill, Poolside — April 2, 2023

Tesla first quarter deliveries surge.

Twitter feed: WTI will be the big story Monday.

Except in DFW area where 91° F will be the big story Monday.

After I read the review, I was going to buy Easy Money but then I saw the price ($55) and delivery date was one to two months. I did not order it.

AAPL or Apple? Go to top left of blog, type in “apple luxury” in the search box, tap on the search icon, and go down memory lane.

From Social Media Overnight: World's Best Investors, Top Holdings -- April 2, 2023

Link here.

• Berkshire Hathaway: "everyone" knows this story.
• Terry Smith: "probably the best quality investor in the world."
• MSFT
• Novo Nordisk
• L'Oréal
• Pjhilip Morris
• LVMH
• Li Lu: "the Warren Buffett of China." Has achieved a return of 30% (!) per year since 1998.
• Micron
• Alphabet
• BofA
• BRK
• AAPL
• Bill Gates
• owns no AAPL
• Howard Marks: founder of Oaktree, the largest investor in distressed securities in the world. "Warren Buffett stated that he drops everything he's doing when Howard Marks publishes a new Memo."
• Torm PLC
• Chesapeake Energy
• Vistra
• Star Bulk Carriers
• Sitio Royalties
• Bill Ackman: over past five years, Ackman has generated a 17% annualized return vs the 10% AR for the S&P 500.
• AKO Capital
• Chuck Acre
• MC
• Moody's
• American Tower
• V
• Constellation Software