Be Careful For What You Ask -- April 6, 2024

Locator: 46935SHRINKFLATION.

Never let a crisis go to waste.

Shrinkflation is not exactly a crisis but President Biden is not about to let this demagogic issue go unaddressed.

Price controls?

Now that President Biden has instructed his Department of Commerce to set rules and regulations on deceptive advertising, the nose of the donkey is inside the barn door as they say.  Once a government agency gets the go-ahead to do something, there's no telling where that agency will stop.

You like price controls? Just let the government define "shrinkflation" and then let them set rules and regulations on pricing. I assume the government will pick a baseline year that fits their agenda best, perhaps 1951, and then go from there. 

At best we will now see two huge labels on all food products:

• the Nutrition Facts label, link here; and,
• the Fair Pricing label, link pending.

The Job Report Earlier This Week And Part-Time Jobs -- April 6, 2024

Locator: 46934JOBS.

Jobs report: I'm not going to link any articles or do any real analysis but with regard to the stunningly impressive jobs report yesterday, there was one data point that at least a few folks noted. Some folks are noting that the 300,000 new jobs were all part-time jobs. That truly needs to be fact-checked.

It's unlikely that all new jobs were part-time jobs. But, let's assume that's accurate, that the majority of new jobs were part-time jobs.

The pundits noting that are suggesting the economy is not as good as CNBC anchors, panelists, guests, talking heads are suggesting. Most of this "negative" analysis is coming from those associated with a certain political party. In fact, the only interview I saw yesterday was with a "suit" who had been a member of the Trump administration. So, there's that.

But back to the original thesis. Is there anything wrong with an uptick in part-time jobs, or a huge jump in the number of jobs even if some / many / most are part-time?

The conflicting data points come from two different BLS surveys: the BLS household survey and the BLS payroll survey. 

So, a lot of questions.

I would begin with: what is the definition of a part-time job?

Some years ago there was a trend for more experienced physicians and physicians (generally women) who were raising a family, to specifically ask for and be granted the permission to work only from 10:00 a.m. to 2:00 p.m. I would call that part-time. And in some specialties, notably radiology, and especially sub-specialties, like orthopedists who only operate on right hands, physicians are earning way more than I ever did when I was working an 80-hour pediatric practice. And emergency room docs? Don't even get me started. Routinely, in urban areas, emergency room physicians earn a full week's pay by working one forty-eight hour stretch. Or at least they did at one time. Not sure if that's allowed any more. 

Question: are people looking for part-time jobs because they need the extra income and can't find a full-time job, or are they specifically looking for a part-time job because they like the lifestyle?

In the DFW area, upscale apartment complexes are providing "trash valet" services. Residents no longer schlepp their garbage to some central compacting site on campus, but rather put their trash right outside their door and it's picked up by a "trash valet" between the hours of 8:00 p.m. and 10:00 p.m. daily. My hunch: perfect work for folks with particular needs, desires. Better use of time than sitting at home drinking and watching Netflix. 

Another question: with all the technology, etc., can a person working in some professions -- even landscaping -- be as productive in four hours as he/she used to be in eight hours, thus allowing someone to work two jobs but still working "only" forty hours a week?

Another observation: for an employer, is it financially more beneficial to hire part-time workers? And what if a part-time worker -- and especially one working remotely -- is way more productive than a full-time in-office employee? There are a lot of jobs that can be done at home as we are now finding out. 

And, oh by the way, there are now reports that a lot of folks working remotely can have two full-time jobs. They can be that productive. I can think of many examples. I'll bet 80% of your typical federal government office worker could work from home. 

For me: like anything in life, there are good things to be learned from that data point and bad things to consider.

But if put in context of an incredibly vibrant economy, I find a huge increase in the number of part-time jobs as incredibly bullish for the economy.

Break, break.

I would assume that financial analysts, by the end of the day when the jobs report came out, were all very, very aware of the new jobs breakdown -- full-time vs part-time; sectors with biggest/lowest gains; demographics of employees; etc., etc., and yet at the end of the day, after that incredibly stunning report, the US equity markets posted a similarly stunning day for investors even if it meant the Fed was less likely to cut rates. That speaks volumes for investors.

By the way, four or five of the seven board members of the Federal reserve and then all of the five regional Federal Reserve Bank presidents have all become color commentators, assisting the main commentator, JPow, when he is not testifying before Congress or when he is making some major policy speech.

A color commentator, you ask? Well, if you like Tony Romo you'll love Neel Kashkari.

By the way, of the twelve Federal reserve bank presidents, it's amazing how much influence Kashkari seems to have considering his region encompasses five states -- Montana, North Dakota, South Dakota, Minnesota and only part of Michigan (excluding Detroit) -- all of which combined might have the GDP of the Dallas-Fort Worth Metropolitan area. 

There are captains in the US Navy and colonels in the US Air Force with more responsibility than Neel. 

Wow, what a digression.

Most Interesting Non-Conflict Story Coming Out Of The Mideast This Week --Just Broke -- April 6, 2024

Locator: 46933SAUDI.

Link here. 

Sounds like the Kingdom is having trouble raising enough money to pay all the LIV golfers. LOL. 

**************************
US Economy

From Drudge -- remember, a lot of folks see Drudge as a "Trumper" if not necessarily hardcore MAGA.

Everyone of those stories posted earlier on the blog including this one:

My favorite quote from former President Trump:

Apparently Matt is reading the blog. LOL.

Factoid Of The Day -- Short Life-Span For Blogs -- April 6, 2024

Locator: 46932BLOGGING.

On blogging:

I noted this when I went back to check some of my links of some of my favorite blogs. And I couldn't find them or if I did (find them), the last post was years ago. So, what is the average life of a blog?

For the record, my first blog lasted from 2007 to 2009. The current iteration has posted every day since sometime in 2009. It's possible I missed a day while traveling but if you can find a day I missed, let me know.

With regard to a blog post (not a blog, but a blog "post"):

And then look at this: the top four -- top four -- fracking RSS feeds, link here:

• The Daily Climate RSS Feed
• Environmental Health News RSS Feed
• Natural Gas Now RSS Feed
• The Million Dollar Way (The Bakken Oil Blog) RSS Feed -- link here.

A "generic" search"

Holy mackerel!

This is current as of March 29, 2024 and features links to the blog as recently as the end of March! And the links work!

And, of course, if ranked by no ads, no subscription, no passwords required, themilliondollarway blog would be #1. Let me know if you can find a blog on the Bakken, fracking, or oil and gas that does not require a subscription, password, and is ad-free. If "wiki" is a blog, wiki would win.

X: I used to direct readers to my site via twitter, but not so much any more. 

Facebook: better way to blog than stand-alone blog might be on Facebook if one wants numbers. I prefer quality. Numbers are interesting and it's rewarding to see the number of page hits increase but I would blog even if I was "guaranteed" no visitors. I have no agenda. Well, not much of an agenda.

****************************
My One Comment Regarding The Iowa - UConn Game

Wow, I hate whining? 

Those who know, know.

**********************************
Local Neighborhood

I recently posted a photo of "$4-buck Chuck (formerly known as $2-buck Chuck)." In fact, it hasn't been "$2-buck Chuck" since 2013 when it raised its prices -- that as under President Obama's administration. Apparently outside the state of California, $2-buck Chuck has been $4-buck Chuck for quite some time.

But we move on.

In the process of sorting that out, I ran across The New York Butcher Shoppe. Apparently one is opening across the street from us ... when I say "across the street from us" that is literal, not figuratively speaking. Across the street and two blocks to the north, is a brand-new "The New York Butcher Shoppe." I had not seen it until yesterday when Sophia and I drove by it on the way home from jiu-jitsu. I think Sophia saw it first and then I saw it -- right next to perhaps the best brunch restaurant in the United States, The Brunch District, another story for another time.

But anyway, here's the website:

Everything suggests it's now open! Wow!

I don't think I'm exaggerating when I say there may be as many as 50 eating establishments within walking distance from our apartment complex. Everything from the Waffle House to P.F. Chang's. They're not all going to survive. One I thought that wasn't going to make it -- a somewhat pricey Mexican restaurant -- had a line waiting outside the door last night. Its niche? Happy Hour every day -- every day -- from 3:00 p.m. to closing. But prices were still inappropriately high. Anyway, I digress. I will report back on the new "butcher shoppe" later. Sophia and I will stop by later today.

Our favorite all-around restaurant in the area: Thirsty Lion. Flagship restaurant in Denver, CO.

Our favorite sushi restaurant: Kura. Perhaps best value price and without question, best selection. And robots serve non-alcoholic drinks.

Kura will put a lot of pressure on Imperial Sushi, a one-minute walk from our apartment, to lower its prices. Even with robots, exceptionally well-staffed with humans whose first language is English.

*****************************
Duolingo: Spanish

Part of my Duolingo stats.

 *****************************
The Book Page Today

Annotated Emerson.

Annotated Wuthering Heights (new copy arrived yesterday).

Byron. Arrived yesterday. My notes on Bryon will be posted here.

Interestingly enough, arrived at same time, the two most recent books (Byron and Wuthering Heights) arrived in separate boxes. I had requested delay in delivery of both so that it would save money and cardboard for Amazon. But, in this case, not to be.

The ease of shopping on Amazon is amazing. Earlier this week, I had run out of shampoo. When I got out of the shower, I clicked thrice on the laptop and shampoo was on its way.

• click on Amazon icon
• type in (brand name) shampoo
• click on "Buy Now" option

Then submit. I guess, four clicks, not three.

*****************************
Flights

One last trip to Portland, OR, before high summer travel costs. When I last checked, a month or so ago, prices on American Airlines from DFW to Portland, OR, went up at least fifty percent from end of April to beginning of May. Just think, taking a flight two weeks later and the price could have almost doubled.

I mentioned this to my wife. What happens in May? The college year ends for most universities / colleges in May. That's the real driver of high-cost summer travel -- when the high-cost flights begin. They will plummet again in October. Maybe September.

The flight I booked for end of April was as inexpensive as I've ever seen. Seriously.

Uber from the airport to our daughter's house in Portland: $50 before tip. $60 total.

I take light rail: regular price, $2.50. For "honored seniors," $1.25. 

Don't even get me started.

Most Interesting Streaming Story Of The Week -- Suits -- White Collar -- April 6, 2024

Locator: 46931OTT.

My wife and I watched the entire six-year series last month, and now we're starting over. My wife never watches anything twice. This is an exception: White Collar. Best series in its genre, maybe best series of any genre. 

We watched it on Hulu. And, now, of all things, it's on Netflix. Apparently just announced. 

From the same group of folks that came up with Monk and Psych. 

Breakevens — Re-Posting — April 6, 2024

Locator: 46930WTI.

WTI breakevens: The other day, a talking head on CNBC made a comment in passing about the breakeven for US WTI: it's $35 for existing wells in the Permian. Here's one source for that comment.