Headlines -- November 28, 2023

Locator: 46199HEADLINES.

Not on my bingo card this morning:

• GM news
• NVDA surge (again)
• Dow
• 10-year below 4.3%
• VIX: 12.60. [That was on my bingo card.]
  
• WTI: up almost 2% despite peace breaking out in the Mideast
  
• Mideast: longer truce results in a 2% jump in the price of oil
  

My wife's portfolio: up 7% in the month of November; she's happy. Surprised. 

PSX: activist Elliott takes $1 billion share in PSX

• huge; PSX up 5% in pre-market trading
• whoo-hoo: makes up sizable portion of my portfolio

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A Month Ago

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Elsewhere

Mark Cuban: the big question is what does he plan to do next? It was announced that he is selling his majority interest in the Dallas Mavericks ($2 billion?) and is leaving "The Shark Tank." I think it's pretty obvious what he plans to do next, but we'll see. [Later: okay, the secret is out. It's all about legalizing gambling in Texas.]

Musk: yet another comeback.

Dallas: 60 years ago -- not a peep from the mainstream media. Did I miss something?

Bizarre: some "analysts" blow off the surge in jet fuel supplied. What am I missing?

Fares: airlines surging -- 2024? FOMO, MOJO. No more YOLO.

Back To The Bakken -- November 28, 2023

Locator: 46198B. 

 Active rigs: 36.

WTI: $76.41.

No new permits.

Two producing wells (DUCs) reported as completed:

• 39354, 2,911, MRO, Guy Carlson 244-31H, Killdeer,

Pool	Date	Days	BBLS Oil	Runs	BBLS Water	MCF Prod	MCF Sold	Vent/Flare
BAKKEN	9-2023	30	26577	26582	25559	28821	28278	462
BAKKEN	8-2023	31	32883	32925	38645	30243	30108	50
BAKKEN	7-2023	26	35444	35609	46689	31209	30878	230
BAKKEN	6-2023	25	31472	31072	52375	27530	26311	1128

• 33343, 2,738, XTO, Dakota Federal 42X-36B, Bear Den,

Pool	Date	Days	BBLS Oil	Runs	BBLS Water	MCF Prod	MCF Sold	Vent/Flare
BAKKEN	9-2023	2	381	369	995	838	0	838

Well of interest:

• 170064, 514, MRO, Dan Tuhy 14-32H, Bailey, t6/08; cum 517K 9/23:
  

Pool	Date	Days	BBLS Oil	Runs	BBLS Water	MCF Prod	MCF Sold	Vent/Flare
BAKKEN	9-2023	30	26634	26543	36439	22634	22230	302
BAKKEN	8-2023	28	13935	13866	40144	12705	12600	47
BAKKEN	7-2023	8	2055	2044	22354	2784	2748	23
BAKKEN	6-2023	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	5-2023	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	4-2023	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	3-2023	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	2-2023	4	125	266	79	263	125	111
BAKKEN	1-2023	31	1284	1278	612	2876	2537	54
BAKKEN	12-2022	28	1075	1033	546	2793	2492	43
BAKKEN	11-2022	30	1217	1257	617	3124	2729	109

Charlie Munger Died Early This Morning -- Late Afternoon Trading -- November 28, 2023

Locator: 46197INV.

Charlie Munger: died today, age 99. Now we will see how quickly CNBC can pivot to perhaps the biggest story of the day. Good, bad, or indifferent, probably the best thing the did for all of us, he got us interested in investing. And not just interested, enthused and excited about investing.

From the comments: Wit, from Charlie and Warren. https://twitter.com/Geiger_Capital/status/1729610100178837806.

Ticker BRK: unchanged after the announcement.

Market:

• ten-year: trending toward 4.3%
• Dow: up a very, very modest 70 points

Team Rubicon: very, very interesting.

• Jake Wood: absolutely fascinating
• if you can't connect the dots, you aren't paying attention

Phases: for me --

• Starbucks: out
• CNBC: in.
• best show of the day: "Halftime Report."
• favorite analyst: Josh Brown
• worst show: "The Exchange."
• best host: Scott Wapner
  
• Christmas spirit: in
• travel: in
• cheese and crackers:
• saltines: out
• club: in

Airline fares: roundtrip, DFW (Dallas, Texas) to PDX (Portland, Oregon)

• most American Airlines fares in December for this trip trend toward $900 per person per roundtrip
• I found a great fare at $475, round trip
• return trip leaves early in the a.m.
• thank goodness Portland's light rail runs 24/7

Blink Camera system: wow, wow, wow -- I might talk about this later.

• top five indoor security cameras; Blink barely makes the list.
• can probably hook it up in less than five minute
• link the sync module to your wi-fi source
• link the camera to the sync module
• done!

• tech support: awesome
• you need Blink, if:
• you are away from your home on a regular basis; better than ADT? Probably. 
• why? You are in control 
• high value assets? You may want a combination of Blink and ADT
  
• you have unattached buildings

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This May Be My Favorite Photo Of The Season
To Date

Their first tree.

All those super-rich folks with gigantic trees on the top of their monster SUVs and a huge wreath on the grill ... and then this ... their first tree. In their USAF flight jackets.

Is this not the most previous picture you've ever seen?

Market -- November 28, 2023

Locator: 46196INV.

Early morning trading:

• BRK-B: down 
• AAPL: up.
• MSFT: up. 
• Boeing: looking great.
  

Talking heads on CNBC:

• yesterday
• asset manager said he would never have any one stock make up as much as 13% of his overall portfolio;
• didn't say what the upper limit was but I inferred 10%
• Buffett's equity portfolio: 50% in one company
• today
• expect a hard landing 
• his definition of a recession: job loss -- that was it -- a recession was a job loss
• says unemployment now trending toward 1.5% and when "we" hit 1.5% there's no stopping 2.0%
  
• buy bonds 
• during his remarks, Fed spokesman more bullish
• market turned solid green

Ten-year: 4.5% seems to be the number that "we're" supposed to watch

• today: below 4.4% and trending down

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Dividends

One can do the math.

1.25%.

Social media had a lot of negative comments. In fact, this suggests a very, very nice portfolio, certainly not 60/40.

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My First Car

Many years ago.

And still looks good.

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Starting To Look A Lot Like Christmas

Four Wells Coming Off Confidential List -- November 26, 2023

Locator: 46195B.

WTI: $75.68.

Wednesday, November 29, 2023: 144 for the month; 144 for the quarter, 714 for the year
39174, conf, Liberty Resources, Sylvia N 158-93-16-14-4MBHX,
39172, conf, Liberty Resources, Alton N Federal 158-93-16-14-2MBHX,
39171, conf, Liberty Resources, Alton N 158-93-16-14-1MBHX,
37110, conf, BR, Carlsbad 4A UTFH,

Tuesday, November 28, 2023: 140 for the month; 140 for the quarter, 710 for the year
39820, conf, Crescent Point Energy, CPEUSC Matilda May 6A-29-32-158N-1000W-MBH-LL,
39814, conf, CLR, North Tarentaise Federal 10-18H2, the North Tarentaise wells are tracked here.
39145, conf, Enerplus, LK Bice 147-96-6-31-2H, the "LK" for Little Knife; these wells are tracked here.
37109, conf, BR, Carlsbad 3D MBH,

RBN Energy: polar vortex 2013 - 2014 propane market chaos and what it means today.

It’s the 10-year anniversary of a polar vortex winter that’s seared into the memories of every propaner who lived through it. Shortages. High prices. Government inquiries. Sure, there were difficulties during that winter in the markets for natural gas and fuel oil too, but it was particularly bad for propane. It seemed like a perfect storm hit the propane market right where it hurt the most — in the heart of propane country: the Upper Midwest and the Northeast. A lot has changed since then, but it’s important to look back at what went wrong, what’s been done to make a repeat of that chaotic winter far less likely, and what those events still mean for the propane market today. 

The propane market conditions that cascaded into the chaos of 2013-14 started innocently enough, with rain — lots of it. In the fall of 2013, propane marketers were enjoying 5X the usual seasonal demand from the market for drying crops, especially corn. On November 10, 2013, the Midwest was enjoying the largest bumper crop of corn in the record books up to that time, and due to the very rainy conditions before the harvest, the “wet” corn needed a lot more drying than usual. But that’s not all that was going on. One of the historical conduits for propane into the Midwest from Western Canada, the Cochin Pipeline, was being reversed and converted by Kinder Morgan, the operator in those days — the pipe’s now owned by Pembina — from propane to diluent service so natural gasoline and naphtha could be moved up to Alberta. At the same time, propane exports from the Gulf Coast were ramping up, pulling more supplies that otherwise would have gone to the Midwest down to supply the export market. By October 1, the price of propane in Conway, KS — the primary hub for Midwest and Midcontinent supplies — had increased to $1/gallon, up from about $0.85/gallon during the summer. [Note that in this blog we are going to focus on the Midwest propane market, which felt the most significant impact that winter, but similar developments were happening in the Northeast and to a lesser extent in the Southeast and Gulf Coast.]