The Million Dollar Way (The Bakken Oil Blog): 02/05/25

Wednesday, February 5, 2025

Time To Sell Tech? February 5, 2025

Locator: 48486CHIPS.

If your crystal ball shows any one of the following, it's time to sell your technology stocks:

the global AI revolution is over, nearly over, or has peaked;
Trump will cede the AI revolution to the Chinese (just as Obama ceded Arctic fossil fuel development to Russia [link here]);
DeepSeek is the "last man standing"; all other chip companies are about to go broke because of Deep Seek.

Where did that article from below come from? ZeroHedge, link here.

Re-posting, from May 14, 2021, almost four year ago.

Ticker, TSMC, five-year chart:

Meanwhile, INTC:

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Chips

Re-posting.

Chips: huge story, on so many levels -- TSMC -- largest chip maker in the world -- set to "double down" and vastly increase US semiconductor chip investment in Arizona. Link here.
The company had already said it was going to invest $10 billion to $12 billion in Arizona. Now, the company is mulling a more advanced 3 nanometer plant that could cost between $23 billion and $25 billion, sources said. The changes would come over the next 10 to 15 years, as the company builds out its Phoenix campus, the report notes.

The move would put TSMC in direct competition with Intel and Samsung for subsidies from the U.S. government. President Joe Biden has proposed $50 billion in funding for domestic chip manufacturing - a proposal the Senate could act on as soon as this week. Intel has also committed to two new fabs in Arizona and Samsung is planning a $17 billion factory in Austin, Texas.

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Disclaimer
Brief Reminder

I am inappropriately exuberant about the US economy and the US market.
I am also inappropriately exuberant about all things Apple.
See disclaimer. This is not an investment site.
Disclaimer: this is not an investment site. Do not make any investment, financial, job, career, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here. All my posts are done quickly: there will be content and typographical errors. If anything on any of my posts is important to you, go to the source. If/when I find typographical / content errors, I will correct them.
Reminder: I am inappropriately exuberant about the US economy and the US market.
I am also inappropriately exuberant about all things Apple.
And now, Nvidia, also. I am also inappropriately exuberant about all things Nvidia.
Add Palantir to the list, being exuberant about all things Palantir.

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A Musical Interlude
The Young Ones

We may not be the young ones very long.

Why not tomorrow? Because sometimes tomorrow never comes.

Link here.

Price Of Eggs -- February 5, 2025

Locator: 48485EGGS.

New temporary link: the Louisville Courier Journal. Link here.

The Journal will post the price of eggs in three grocery stores in Lousiville every week, every Wednesday.

How long has the avian flu virus been around?

Who was the first president to order a 100 million chickens culled?

Is there a better way to manage this problem?

Tell Me Again The Down Side Of Global Warming -- February 5, 2025

Locator: 48484SOLAR.

From NPR, link here:

North Texas: it approached 80°F today, but it will cool significantly to the high 60s tomorrow, but then we're going to be in the high 80s over the weekend, and possibly even hitting 90°F -- although I doubt it -- more likely 88°F will be the high. I'm lovin' it.

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Solar

Ivanpah: not on my bingo card today. Scheduled to close in 2039 -- about fifteen years from now-- two of three solar farms are to be closed immediately and the operator is looking to close the third of three units.

And this has nothing to do with any executive order by Trump.

Even the Sierra Club didn't like this project. Abject failure. Solar farms are expected to last forever -- after all, they're cheap and the fuel source is free. Oil wells last longer than this. My hunch: the depreciation / tax credits expired. Time to initiate a new farm with new depreciation, tax credits, tax incentives, subsidies from US taxpayers. .

click here for all blog posts in which Ivanpah was discussed over the past eleven years.
this was from many years ago, about the time I was becoming quite bored with the whole subject:

It appears we now have a poster child for solar farms: Ivanpah. See these links:

Overwhelmed -- Not Ready For Prime Time -- February 5, 2025

Locator: 48483ARCHIVES.

Be sure to review the disclaimer if you are reading the blog.

I am absolutely overwhelmed -- way too much to cover.

Not sure how to handle this.

I may have to take a break (six to twelve hours); listen to some music; chill.

Or just give up completely. LOL.

The other option is to post "incomplete memos" on the blog and come back later and complete them, I don't know.

These are the stories that need lots of attention. Note: because of the volatility of the market, I am not blogging much about the market. If I do blog about investing it will be do to something that readers have sent me or something that I just happened to see.

Again, these are the stories that need lots of attention.

House of cards about to fall: global warming; climate change; the grid; expensive electricity; EVs.

Re-posting:

Geo-politics: I have never been more excited than I am now about the current state of geo-politics.
Gaza: pending. This is incredibly interesting. One can easily how Trump views this; one can easily see how the journalists completely miss how Trump's mind works.
Ukraine: pending.
Norway: pending.
Trump appointees: pending.

most interesting: RFK, Jr -- if he is approved, things are not going to play out like "we" all expect; and, I think Trump knows that; and, again Trump will be following the Eisenhower principle -- see below

DEI is dead: exhibit A -- google announced today, that going forward, it will only hire the best and the brightest regardless of an applicant's immutable features. It's hard to believe it took "a Trump" to make that happen.
Elon Musk, DOGE, and AI: FAA next.
renewable energy: the house of cards is about to fall; huge opportunity for investors (traders and investors, for that matter)

Europe is in deep doo-doo and it seems no one knows that; when it hits, it will hit fast

The American Airlines -- US Army Blackhawk:

the story has disappeared; reminder: occurred on January 29, 2025
the NTSB will announced preliminary findings at 30 days (February 28, 2025 = Friday; 30 days will happen on the weekend; likely the 30-day preliminary finding will occur during the week of March 3, 2025).
my hunch: mostly aviation jargon; mostly covering the rules, regulations; very little will actually be mentioned about the immediate cause of the crash; everything possible will be done to obfuscate the obvious.
so much misinformation out there: the biggest? The magnitude of this disaster. CNN says this is the worst since 2001. In fact, CNN is wrong. This is the worst since 1968 -- that's 57 years ago. It depends how one measures "the worst," but trust me, this is the worst since 1968.

Gaza:

do folks remember this: https://theconversation.com/assads-fall-opens-window-for-syrian-refugees-to-head-home-but-for-many-it-wont-be-an-easy-decision-247051?

in the month of Assad's fall, 125,000 Syrians returned to Syria -- from Turkey, Lebanon, and Jordan
how many Syrians fled Syria under Assad (since 2011)? more than six million

do folks remember what happened when the Berlin Wall fell?
do folks know who controls the border between Egypt and Gaza?

do folks know who used to "own" Gaza?
do folks know the ethnicity of 99% of all folks living in Gaza?

Trump is the smartest politician in the room; one may hate him or hate his actions but that doesn't mean he's not smart. On Gaza he knows exactly what he's talking about. Political leaders in Egypt have every "right" to be terrified if they're following Trump's actions on the US southern border.
if one can't connect the dots now, well, what can I say?
I know exactly what Trump was thinking when he alluded to "boots on the ground" -- yeah, those comments, the comments his White House staff had to walk back.
the discussion is not over, not be a long shot.
Later, February 6, 2025: finally, Israel / US holding Europeans accountable -- link here.

finally, something different
region and Europe are terrified
brilliant
just wait until "they" open the border to Egypt; after all, 99.99% Gazans are Egyptian.

Having said that, the big winner in most recent meeting between Netanyahu and Trump? Israel.

it's very clear Trump made it very clear, he will do whatever it takes to protect Israel
both Biden and Kamala were a bit ambivalent with regard to Israel; Trump may be a lot of things, but one thing he is not, is ambivalent;
Israelis can sleep well tonight after Netanyahu's visit with Trump.

Please read the blog's disclaimer.

I'm not done yet on Gaza: one last thought - "the Eisenhower principle." Link here.

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Britain

Headline without comment:

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California

Just how bad are things in California? I think that will end up being one of the biggest stories this year -- to what degree will California need a bailout of historic proportions.

Much, much more, but need to take a break.

Read the disclaimer.

Is "X" Down? 9:28 P.M. CT -- February 5, 2025

Locator: 48482X.

"X" is working fine here in north Texas, but there may have been problems earlier.

Some readers are telling me "X" is down.

I've been out all evening, and just checked now. "X" is up here in north Texas.

Hess With Six New Antelope Creek Permits; XTO Reports Two Dry Kulczyk Wells -- February 5, 2025

Locator: 48481B.

Geo-politics: I have never been more excited than I am now about the current state of geo-politics. We will come back to this later, I'm sure.

Gaza: pending.

Ukraine: pending.

Norway: pending.

Trump appointees: pending.

DEI is dead: exhibit A -- google announced today, that going forward, it will only hire the best and the brightest regardless of an applicant's immutable features. It's hard to believe it took "a Trump" to make that happen.

Elon Musk, DOGE, and AI: FAA next.

Solar: not on my bingo card today. Scheduled to close in 2039 -- about fifteen years from now-- two of three units to be closed immediately and operator looking to close the third of three units. Even the Sierra Club didn't like this project. Abject failure. Solar farms are expected to last forever -- after all, they're cheap and the fuel source is free. Oil wells last longer than this. My hunch: the depreciation / tax credits expired. Time to initiate a new farm with new depreciation, tax credits, tax incentives.

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Back to the Bakken

WTI: $71.03.

Number of rigs: 34.

Seven new permits, #41583k - #41589, inclusive:

Operators: Hess (6); Empire North Dakota
Fields: Antelope Creek (McKenzie); Starbuck-Madison Unit (Bottineau)
Comments:

Empire North Dakota has a permit for a Raptor 1 well, lot 2, section 1-160-79;

to be sited 370 FNL and 1350 FEL;

Hess has permits for five BW-IDA wells and one BW-JLP wells, NWSW 13-149-101,

to be sited 2417 / 2579 FSL and 821 / 935 FWL; four of the wells are 3-section wells; and two of the wells are 6-section wells.

Two producing wells (DUCs) were reported as completed:

36834, 3,241, XTO, HBU Muller 31X-12C, Williams County;
36835, 3,634, XTO, HBU Muller 31X-12F, Williams County;

Two dry holes reported:

37226, dry, XTO, Kulczyk 43X-17TFXG2, Mountrail County;
37664, dry, XTO, Kulczyk 43X-17BXC, Mountrail County;

Winter Not Yet Over In New England -- February 5, 2025

Locator: 48480ISONE.

Dr Phil: earlier this week Groundhog Phil predicted six more weeks of winter.

A shout-out to Middlebury College!

New NGL Pipes, Fracs and LPG Export Terminal Give MPLX, ONEOK What They've Wanted -- RBN Energy -- February 5, 2025

Locator: 48479B.

RBN Energy: new NGL pipes, fracks, and LPG export terminal give MPLX, ONEOK what they've wanted. Archived.

It finally happened. And it’s a very big deal for MPLX and ONEOK, both of which have been working for years to become full-fledged members of the elite “NGL wellhead-to-water club.” But the companies’ announcements that MPLX will build two fractionators at the terminus of a new NGL pipeline from Sweeny to Texas City and that ONEOK and MPLX will joint build a new LPG export terminal nearby (and a new purity-product pipeline between Mont Belvieu and the terminal) doesn’t just fill in the missing pieces of the puzzle they’ve been assembling. The plans also will give Gulf Coast LPG exporters the additional capacity they desperately need and — no small thing — create another fractionation hub. In today’s RBN blog, we discuss what MPLX and ONEOK are planning and why it matters.

In a Drill Down Report in late 2023, we described the NGL networks owned and operated by the four large midstream companies (Enterprise Products Partners, Energy Transfer, Targa Resources and Phillips 66) that currently provide wellhead-to-water services — everything from gas processing plants in the Permian and other plays to long-haul NGL pipelines to the Gulf Coast to fractionation plants (almost all of them in Mont Belvieu) and export terminals for purity NGL products. As we said then, “That start-to-finish management of the NGL stream provides a number of important benefits — chief among them, the ability to operate with extraordinary efficiency, collect fees from shippers each step of the way, and feed pipelines, fractionators, storage and export terminals along the network’s value chain.”

In several RBN blogs and Analyst Insights since then, we’ve discussed the need for more NGL export capacity and plans for projects to meet those needs. We've also looked at plans by ONEOK and MPLX to expand the NGL side of their businesses, many of them aimed at enhancing the companies’ operational optionality and wellhead-to-water capabilities.

Two recent ONEOK deals are most relevant to our discussion today. First, in June 2024, ONEOK closed on the purchase of 450 miles of NGL and other liquids pipelines in the greater Houston area from Easton Energy and announced plans to connect the NGL system to ONEOK’s Mont Belvieu assets. Then, in a two-step deal — the latter part of which closed on January 30 — ONEOK acquired EnLink Midstream, which, among other things, gave ONEOK 1.6 Bcf/d of gas processing capacity in the Permian. ONEOK already owned a host of valuable NGL-related assets, including several gas processing plants in the Rockies and Midcontinent; a handful of NGL pipeline systems (West Texas NGL, Elk Creek and Bakken NGL among them); more than 1 MMb/d of fractionation capacity (more than two-thirds of it in Mont Belvieu, where it owns six fracs); and 30 MMbbl of salt-cavern storage capacity for NGLs.

Figure 1. BANGL Pipeline, Sweeny and Texas City Developments. Source: RBN

TotalEnergies To Increase Dividend By 7% -- February 5, 2025

Locator: 48478B.

Focus on dividends: TotalEnergies -- to increase its dividend by 7%.

WTI Contines To Fall; TTE Increases Dividend By 7%; Update On Oneok -- RBN Energy -- February 5, 2025

Locator: 48477B.

Super Bowl: news cycle for others will be put on hold for the next several days as all attention turns to the Super Bowl. There will be some exceptions. As for the blog, it continues unabated. I'm lovin' it.

Trump: incredibly refreshing to have a president that talks to the American public 24/7.

Equinor: Nordstream 1 natural gas pipeline completely destroyed.

AMD's earnings: why is x so much better reporting these numbers than mainstream media? Link here. AMD to to partner with MSFT on "copilot."

Disney earnings: link here.

EV wrap:

Ford: will sell these things at a loss to maintain leadership. Link here. From x.

January, 2025, sales in the U.S. fell 6.3% owing to lower demand for its internal combustion (ICE) vehicles, the company said on Monday.
The automaker sold a total of 142,944 units - including ICE and electrified vehicles - in January, compared to the 152,617 it sold a year ago.
Sales of its electrified vehicles, which include both electric and hybrid vehicles, rose about 20% to 18,961 units.

Honda - Nissaan: merger deal appears to be "off."

Focus on dividends: TotalEnergies -- to increase its dividend by 7%.

Coal, link here:

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Back to the Bakken

WTI: $71.83.

New wells:

Friday, February 7, 2025: 8 for the month, 54 for the quarter, 54 for the year,

40438, conf, Enerplus, Strength 150-94-06B-18H,

Thursday, February 6, 2025: 7 for the month, 53 for the quarter, 53 for the year,

40456, conf, Hess, GO-Beck Living TR-156-98-2017H-4,
39390, conf, CLR, Goodson 2-21H,

Wednesday, February 5, 2025: 5 for the month, 51 for the quarter, 51 for the year,

None.