Who Will Blink First? -- January 26, 2016

Bloomberg/Rigzone is reporting:

With oil trading near $30 a barrel, calls for orchestrated output cuts to quell global oversupply have intensified this week. Trouble is, none of the world’s largest producers, most notably Russia and Saudi Arabia, have shown they’re ready to make a move.

OPEC Secretary-General Abdalla El-Badri called on all countries, both inside and outside the group, to join efforts to revive oil prices. "It should be viewed as something OPEC and non-OPEC tackle together," he said on Monday.

Iraq’s oil minister said on Tuesday that Saudi Arabia and Russia, the world’s two largest exporters, might be ready to become “more flexible.”

Yet there’s little sign the countries themselves are ready to reach an agreement despite the economic damage wrought by the lowest prices since 2003. Long-standing obstacles remain -- Saudi Arabia’s desire to defend market share, Russia’s inability to cut production in winter months -- and analysts say talk of a deal probably reflects the hope of producers in pain rather than the expectation of concrete action.

The two countries’ opposing views on Syria, where Russia is President Bashar Al-Assad’s closest ally and Saudi Arabia wants him gone, present another significant diplomatic obstacle.

"It will not happen -- everybody is winking, hinting," said Kamel al-Harami, an independent oil analyst and former executive of state-owned Kuwait Petroleum Corp. "The Saudis won’t do it without the Russians. Unless Russia accepts to cut, I don’t see it happening.”

Regardless of how this plays out, it appears that we've seen global crude oil crest. From here on out, global production will start to recede. Fundamentals alone will bring supply / demand into balance by the middle of next year, 2017. Between now and then Iran isn't going to increase production all that much. There will be a lot of talk but oil companies don't have the cash or desire to spend whatever cash they have by actively drilling in Iran. They will start negotiating with Iran, but new production, unlikely. US production will continue to decline, albeit slowly. So it really comes down to Russia and Saudi Arabia, doesn't it? There's not much reason for "OPEC" to convene an emergency meeting; for all intents and purposes, "OPEC" is Saudi Arabia. Looking at the graph at this post, my hunch is both countries, Russia and KSA, agree to cut production by one million bopd. Saudi Arabia will save "face" by convening an OPEC meeting, to make it look like it was a committee decision, and not a unilateral capitulation. Timing? Before Memorial Day, 2016. 

The North Dakota Bakken: Recession Or Depression? -- January 26, 2016

See story at Bakken.com. Archived.

This will be an important test to see how local and state governments "manage" this.

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GOP Debate Thursday -- One Less On Stage

I've always said there are way too many on the GOP stage.  One less this Thursday.

Yellow River, Christie (No, this in not SecState John Kerry when returned from Vietnam.)

Random Update Of Last 100 Permits In Calendar Year 2014 -- January 26, 2016

Disclaimer: this was done quickly; it was not triple checked. There will be factual and typographical errors.

Date	File Number	Operator	County	Field	Status/IP	Name
18-Dec-14	30268	HRC	Dunn	Eagle Nest	954	Fort Berthold 148-94-17D-8-12H
18-Dec-14	30269	HRC	Dunn	Eagle Nest	1716	Fort Berthold 148-94-17D-8-13H
18-Dec-14	30270	SM Energy	McKenzie	Poe	SI/NC	Stenehjem 14X-9HA
18-Dec-14	30271	SM Energy	McKenzie	Poe	SI/NC	Stenehjem 14-9H
18-Dec-14	30272	SM Energy	McKenzie	Poe	SI/NC	Stenehjem 14X-9HB
18-Dec-14	30273	Whiting	Dunn	Twin Buttes	1642	Charging Eagle 10-14-11-3H
18-Dec-14	30274	MRO	Dunn	Bailey	1813	Klee 11-3TFH
18-Dec-14	30275	CLR	Williams	Burg	367	Elias 1-21H
18-Dec-14	30276	Hess	Williams	Ray	558	GO-Perdue-157-97-0112H-5
19-Dec-14	30277	WPX	Dunn	Mandaree	conf	Joseph Eagle 19-18HZ
19-Dec-14	30278	WPX	Dunn	Mandaree	conf	Joseph Eagle 19-18HD
19-Dec-14	30279	OXY USA	Dunn	Cabernet	loc	Kenneth Stroh 6-12-1H-143-97L
19-Dec-14	30280	BR	McKenzie	North Fork	conf	Merton 21-15TFH
19-Dec-14	30281	BR	McKenzie	North Fork	conf	Merton 21-15MBH
19-Dec-14	30282	BR	McKenzie	North Fork	conf	Jerome 21-15MBH
19-Dec-14	30283	Newfield	McKenzie	South Tobacco Garden	conf	Orvis State 150-99-21-16-4H
19-Dec-14	30284	Newfield	McKenzie	South Tobacco Garden	conf	Orvis State 150-99-21-16-3H
19-Dec-14	30285	XTO	McKenzie	Siverston	drl	Stenehjem 31X-28D
22-Dec-14	30286	EOG	McKenzie	Antelope	1974	Riverview 102-32H
22-Dec-14	30287	QEP	McKenzie	Spotted Horn	951	Dailey 6-12-13BH
22-Dec-14	30288	QEP	McKenzie	Spotted Horn	2067	Dailey 4-12-13T2H
22-Dec-14	30289	QEP	McKenzie	Spotted Horn	2197	Dailey 7-12-13BH
22-Dec-14	30290	QEP	McKenzie	Spotted Horn	1888	Dailey 4-12-13TH
22-Dec-14	30291	QEP	McKenzie	Blue Buttes	2463	Dailey 12-11LL
22-Dec-14	30292	Whiting	Mountrail	Sanish	884	Arvo 12-33TFH
22-Dec-14	30293	EOG	Mountrail	Parshall	SI/NC	Fertile 7900905H
22-Dec-14	30294	Hunt	Mountrail	Ross	conf	Palermo MCNIC 156-90-22-23H-2
22-Dec-14	30295	Hunt	Mountrail	Ross	conf	Palmermo MCNIC 156-90-22-23H-3
22-Dec-14	30296	EOG	Mountrail	Parshall	conf	Fertile 63-1004H
22-Dec-14	30297	Hess	Mountrail	Robinson Lake	conf	EN-Weyrauch C-154-93-2932H-5
22-Dec-14	30298	Hess	Mountrail	Robinson Lake	conf	EN-Weyrauch C-154-93-2932H-6
22-Dec-14	30299	Hess	Mountrail	Robinson Lake	conf	EN-Weyrauch C-154-93-2932H-7
22-Dec-14	30300	Hess	Mountrail	Robinson Lake	conf	EN-Weyrauch C-154-93-2932H-8
22-Dec-14	30301	Hess	Mountrail	Robinson Lake	conf	EN-Weyrauch C-154-93-2932H-9
22-Dec-14	30302	Slawson	Mountrail	Big Bend	PNC	Moleback 7-20-21TFH
22-Dec-14	30303	Slawson	Mountrail	Big Bend	PNC	Moleback 6-20-21TFH
22-Dec-14	30304	Slawson	Mountrail	Big Bend	PNC	Moleback 9-20-21TF2H
22-Dec-14	30305	Slawson	Mountrail	Big Bend	PNC	Moleback 10-20-21TF2H
23-Dec-14	30306	Statoil	Williams	Painted Woods	conf	Olson 10-15 3H
23-Dec-14	30307	Statoil	Williams	Painted Woods	conf	Olson 10-15 2TFH
23-Dec-14	30308	CLR	Mountrail	Sanish	PNC	Margaurite Federal 6-15H2
23-Dec-14	30309	CRL	Mountrail	Sanish	PNC	Margaurite Federal 7-15H
23-Dec-14	30310	CLR	Mountrail	Sanish	PNC	Margaurite Federal 8-15H1
23-Dec-14	30311	CLR	Mountrail	Sanish	PNC	Margaurite Federal 9-15H
23-Dec-14	30312	Murex	Mountrail	Sanish	conf	Sophia Drake 25-36H
23-Dec-14	30313	Whiting	McKenzie	Bully	1214	Stenehjem 41-3-3H
23-Dec-14	30314	EOG	Mountrail	Parshall	SI/NC	Fertile 800905H
23-Dec-14	30315	Hess	Mountrail	Robinson Lake	conf	EN-Weyrauch C-154-93-2932H-10
23-Dec-14	30316	Hess	Mountrail	Robinson Lake	conf	EN-Weyrauch C-154-93-2932H-11
23-Dec-14	30317	Hess	Mountrail	Robinson Lake	conf	EN-Weyracuch C-154-92-2932H-12
23-Dec-14	30318	Hess	Mountrail	Robinson Lake	conf	EN-Weyrauch C-154-93-3932H-13
23-Dec-14	30319	Slawson	Mountrail	Big Bend	947	Peacemaker Federal 1 SLH
23-Dec-14	30320	Triangle	McKenzie	Buffalo Wallow	SI/NC	Anderson 148-100-7-6-4H
23-Dec-14	30321	Whiting	McKenzie	Bully	1267	Sondrol 11-3-3H
23-Dec-14	30322	EOG	Mountrail	Parshall	conf	Parshall 435-1113H
23-Dec-14	30323	EOG	Mountrail	Parshall	loc	Parshall 436-1113H
23-Dec-14	30324	OXY USA	Dunn	Fayette	loc	Raphael Stroh 5-13-24H-143-97L
24-Dec-14	30325	BR	McKenzie	Sand Creek	conf	Sun Notch 41-32TFH
24-Dec-14	30326	BR	McKenzie	Sand Creek	conf	Old Hickory 41-32TFH
26-Dec-14	30327	SM Energy	Divide	West Ambrose	SI/NC	Colleen 4-14HS
26-Dec-14	30328	SM Energy	Divide	West Ambrose	SI/NC	Nancy 4-14HN
26-Dec-14	30329	SM Energy	Divide	West Ambrose	SI/NC	Maria 4B-14HN
26-Dec-14	30330	SM Energy	Divide	West Ambrose	SI/NC	Beth 4B-14HS
26-Dec-14	30331	EOG	Mountrail	Parshall	conf	Parshall 434-1113H
26-Dec-14	30332	EOG	Mountrail	Parshall	conf	Parshall 432-1113H
26-Dec-14	30333	EOG	Mountrail	Parshall	loc	Parshall 94-32H
26-Dec-14	30334	EOG	Mountrail	Parshall	loc	Parshall 95-3230H
29-Dec-14	30335	CLR	McKenzie	Elm Tree	drl	Hendrickson Federal 3-36H2
29-Dec-14	30336	CLR	McKenzie	Elm Tree	drl	Hendrickson Federal 4-36H
29-Dec-14	30337	CLR	McKenzie	Elm Tree	drl	Hendrickson Federal 5-36H1
29-Dec-14	30338	CLR	McKenzie	Elm Tree	drl	Hendrickson Federal 6-36H
29-Dec-14	30339	XTO	McKenzie	Siverston	1147	Lundin 14X-33F
29-Dec-14	30340	XTO	McKenzie	Siverston	1677	Lundin 14X-33EXF
29-Dec-14	30341	XTO	McKenzie	Siverston	1742	Lundin 14X-33A
29-Dec-14	30342	Whiting	Stark	Bell	1536	Obrigewitch 41-29PHU
29-Dec-14	30343	Whiting	Stark	Bell	985	Obrigewitch 44-20PHU
29-Dec-14	30344	CLR	McKenzie	Elm Tree	drl	Holstein Federal 12-25H
29-Dec-14	30345	CLR	McKenzie	Elm Tree	drl	Holstein Federal 11-25H2
29-Dec-14	30346	CLR	McKenzie	Elm Tree	drl	Holstein Federal 10-25H
29-Dec-14	30347	CLR	McKenzie	Elm Tree	drl	Holstein Federal 9-25H1
29-Dec-14	30348	CLR	McKenzie	Elm Tree	drl	Holstein Federal 8-25H
30-Dec-14	30349	Samson Resources	Divide	Ambrose	529	Ranchero 1819-8H
30-Dec-14	30350	Hunt	Divide	Writing Rock	438	Writing Rock 161-101-23-14H-1
30-Dec-14	30351	Hunt	Divide	Writing Rock	389	Writing Rock 161-101-26-35H-1
30-Dec-14	30352	Hunt	Divide	Writing Rock	824	Writing Rock 161-101-25-36H-1
30-Dec-14	30353	Hess	Williams	Beaver Lodge	820	BL-Kerbaugh-156-96-3427-2
30-Dec-14	30354	Hess	Williams	Beaver Lodge	836	BL-Kerbaugh-156-96-3427-3
30-Dec-14	30355	Hess	Williams	Beaver Lodge	536	BL-Kerbaugh-156-96-3427-4
30-Dec-14	30356	Hess	Williams	Beaver Lodge	819	BL-Kerbaugh-156-96-3427-5
30-Dec-14	30357	Enduro	Renville	Mouse River Park	conf	MRPSU 19-33-H2
30-Dec-14	30358	Enduro	Renville	Mouse River Park	85	MRPSU 19-33-H1
30-Dec-14	30359	CLR	Williams	Dollar Joe	loc	Salem 6-6H1
30-Dec-14	30360	CLR	Williams	Dollar Joe	loc	Salem 7-6H
31-Dec-14	30361	CLR	McKenzie	Camp	1239	Patterson Federal 6-13H
31-Dec-14	30362	CLR	Dunn	Corral Creek	SI/NC	State Weydahl 5-36H1
31-Dec-14	30363	CLR	Dunn	Corral Creek	SI/NC	State Weydahl 6-36H
31-Dec-14	30364	CLR	Dunn	Corral Creek	SI/NC	State Weydahl 7-36H2
31-Dec-14	30365	CLR	Dunn	Corral Creek	SI/NC	Brandvik 5-25H1
31-Dec-14	30366	CLR	Dunn	Corral Creek	SI/NC	Brandvik 6-25H
31-Dec-14	30367	CLR	Dunn	Corral Creek	SI/NC	Brandvik 7-25H2
31-Dec-14	30368	Petro-Hunt	McKenzie	Charlson	SI/NC	Thompson 153-95-8D-6-2H
31-Dec-14	30369	Petro-Hunt	McKenzie	Charlson	SI/NC	Thompson 153-95-8D-6-3H