Demographics, World Population, Africa, In One Chart -- An Update -- March 11, 2024

Locator: 46715NIGERIA.

Link here. 

A recurring theme on the blog.

Link here.

Link here. Nigeria, the size of Texas, will double its population in 27 years,

Gonna use a lot of coal.

Global Population -- Random Look -- December 5, 2022

On the way to answering another question, I again came across these charts posted a few weeks ago. A 30-second sound bite, forecast:

• by the end of next year, India's population will surpass that of China's today [later: occurred April, 2023];
• puts into perspective India's thirst for Mideast oil (Iraq, Saudi Arabia, in that order) and Russia's.
  
• but India's rate of growth will slow, so that by the end of the century, India's population will be well less than China's today, but will still exceed China's
• by the end of the century, China will cut is population in half from that of today, from 1.4 billion to 700 million (the US population runs about 350 million) 
• one-child policy was bad enough, but was aggravated by an overwhelming preponderance of male infants
  
• by the end of the century, China will drop from #1 to #3 in population: India will remain #1 (but its population will also drop, from 1.4 billion to 1.1 billion)
• by the end off the century, Nigeria will jump to second place, behind India, with a population of 800 million, up from around 200 million today
  

Original Post 

First, by the end of the century, 2100. Graphic below.

By next year, India will surpass China in population, by the end of 2023. This simply amazes me. 

Graphic below.

Projections are that Nigeria, a relatively small country by geography, will have a population second to China.

Full table, which might be a big hard to read. Go to the linked article or click on this image and zoom in:

Top seven countries in population in 2100:

Global Population: Our Grandchildren Will See This -- July 23, 2022

Locator: 43000C.

Updates

July 12, 2024: getting worse. Some suggest the number could drop all the way to 525 million -- in the same ballpark as North America.

April 10, 2023: link here.

July 26, 2022: link here. 

Original Post 

First, by the end of the century, 2100. Graphic below.

By next year, India will surpass China in population, by the end of 2023. This simply amazes me. Graphic below.

Projections are that Nigeria, a relatively small country by geography, will have a population second to China, by the end of the century, and right now, unable to benefit from high oil prices. 

This story is absolutely criminal and it appears the UN is uninterested. Not surprising. 

Link here. 

From the linked olprice article by Julianne Geiger:

The severe revenue shortfall does not allow Nigeria to service its debt. 

The cost of Nigeria’s gasoline subsidy will be about 10 times what it had originally budgeted, Nigeria’s President Muhammadu Buhari revealed in an April letter to lawmakers. 

That cost of that subsidy is expected to be just south of $10 billion. 

Unlike other major oil producers that have benefited handsomely from higher crude oil prices, Nigeria has negligible refining capacity, forcing it to import nearly all of the gasoline it consumes. 

And Nigeria must pay today’s high costs for that gasoline while continuing to sell it onto the consumer for much less in order to keep prices at 39 cents. 

The value of Nigeria’s petroleum imports far outweighs the value of its petroleum exports—to the tune of $43 billion. Nigeria has toyed with the idea of ending the gasoline subsidies, but the specter of fuel protests caused the President to scrap those plans.

Sri Lanka.

Panama.

Ecuador. 

Boris Johnson out.

Italian government falls (but that's probably not news).

Back to the first article, looking at projected population in 2100.

Full table, which might be a big hard to read. Go to the linked article or click on this image and zoom in:

Top seven countries in population in 2100:

I do not know Peter Zeihan's opinion on the southern surge (tag here for background) but I do know what he says in his 2022 book.

With regard to the southern surge:

• the US needs to embrace it positively, lovingly, and with the spirit of Ellis Island, and the Statue of Liberty; but,
• it must be done correctly.

******************************
Other Observations

We could have fun with this all day, but here are the things that jump out at me:

• overall:
• biggest surprise: change in China's population
• second biggest surprise: Nigeria
  
• most concerning for me: (no) change in the US population over the century
• carbon emissions:
  
• if we do absolutely nothing with regard to CO2 emissions, note: the two countries which are #1 and #2 in emissions, China and the US -- total population falls precipitously (total US + China):
• I assume Nigeria will account for some CO2 emissions based on population but "nothing" in the big scheme of things (no industry), and it's their population that grows the largest.
• be careful with the graph above. It looks like India is the problem: population + coal. In fact, India's population contracts significantly also.
• economic growth: nothing kills an economy like lack of (no) population growth. 
• US. Flat. Needs the southern surge.
  
• Russia. Even worse. Russia needs the Ukraine.
  
• Japan. Even worse than Russia.
• China: on a percentage basis, it appears to be the worst of all; they need Taiwan.
  
• Europe -- not even one European country shows up on either side of the graphic. Bangladesh shows up on both sides, but Canada, Mexico, Argentina and Taiwan do not. Nor does South Africa. Not good news for any of these countries. 
• Brazil: same thing could be said about Brazil but I doubt anyone cares.
  
• energy demand: 
• add up the fourteen population numbers on the left side of the chart (4.710 billion) and the fourteen population numbers on the right side of the chart (4.712 billion); no population growth among the top fourteen countries.

Recommendation: read Peter Zeihan, c. 2022.

Switzerland Developer Preparing To Break Ground On Half-Billion-Dollar Residential/Commercial Project In Williston, North Dakota -- Ground Zero For The Bakken

Updates

May 23, 2014: I received this as a comment, but comments are not google-searchable, so moved it here for easier access:

http://www.sys-con.com/node/3091627

This link is a little more detailed than the Bloomberg on Williston Crossing. Note the history of the developers of Williston Crossing. Sounds like they are legit, have the resource funds already in place, intend to break ground March 2015 with completion date of 2017. 

They have a huge history of million of square feet of retail, malls, etc... I think this might actually be for real. 

The location is in question. If it is near the 4 mile west of town, the only available acreage left on 2/85 going into WIlliston (west of town) is the large parcel between the McCody concrete office building and Schlumberger's new facilty (north side of the highway). I'm not sure if there is 228 acres? Possibly. 

Otherwise, the only other land is west of the 4-mile corner on the south side of the highway (US Highway 2), between the 4-mile and Trenton-turn off? Could be interesting. 

Unless they are talking about the new interchange and bypass NORTH of Williston where Pat Murphy is planning his North Star Center (550 acre development breaking ground in June).

The link is interesting for other reasons.

Some time ago there was a presentation suggesting how many wells might have to be drilled in the Bakken before it's all over. That presentation was removed quickly from the internet suggesting that it came from proprietary source and was not approved for general release. I don't know. "Everyone" agrees that the "new" minimum number of Bakken wells will be 50,000. Many folks now talk about numbers higher than that, but like "whisper numbers" on Wall Street are seldom found in print (for obvious reason). This link, in this update:

Rapid expansion in the petroleum sector has led to unprecedented regional growth. Rolfstad says, the Bakken Shale currently has approximately 8,000 operating wells, and is adding about 2,100 per year. Given the multiple oil formations under the Williston area, and the trend towards situating multiple wells in one location and accessing surrounding territory via horizontal drilling, the latest thinking is that there could be 140,000 more wells to be drilled. He says completion times are indeed getting shorter, but there are decades of drilling ahead of us, and after, each well can produce for upwards of 40 years.  

In addition to that incredible data point, the very next paragraph:

The area's population is also growing at a swift pace -- nearly nine percent per year through 2017 -- and will continue to grow to 159,000 over the next 10 years. According to Rolfstad, "Each oil well leads to between one and three permanent production jobs. Drilling requires manpower, and that workforce is here today. Production requires manpower as well -- in fact a similar number of workers -- with a key difference being that this workforce can settle down in one place for an entire career. That's where we are headed." 

And so it goes. 

By the way, the numbers are starting to converge: a one-trillion-barrel reservoir; 140,000 wells; EURs of 500,000 bbls; 7% recovery rate. It's hard to keep track of the zeros but if you do the math, one comes to some very interesting ... should we say, coincidences?

I've posted this before: when I was last in Williston, I had an "aha" moment. The oil industry in the Bakken seemed to reach a plateau two, maybe three years ago with drilling 2,000 wells/year. The tea leaves suggest "everyone" is happy with 2,000 wells/year; over time, possibly less, but maintaining production between one million and two million bopd. My return visits to the Bakken over the past three years suggest that there are enough resources: workers, housing, rigs, pipeline, CBR terminals, etc., to comfortably manage 2,000 new wells/year. But the "aha" moment: the building continues at an incredible rate. Why? More natural gas processing plants need to be built. Permanent workers need to be in place to service the thousands of wells currently producing in North Dakota, and growing by 2,000/year. Yes, at some point, the manpower intensive drilling program will end -- but that might be 20, 30, or 40 years from now. 50,000 wells at 2,000 wells/year = 25 years. Meanwhile, each new well is going to require one to three new permanent workers. This does not include the number of opportunities that open up to "serve" these workers: restaurants, entertainment, shopping, banking, legal, medical, etc. I still think it would serve folks well to look at Calgary, Alberta, Canada, pre- and post-1947.

Original Post

A huge "thank you" to a reader for alerting me to the story.

It's hard to separate fact from fiction, the credible from the incredible, the pie in one's oven from "pie in the sky," but the Bakken never fails to provide exciting copy. If this pans out, this could be the story of the month; as fast as the Bakken seems to be moving, it is certainly the story of the hour, and published in Bloomberg, no less (in case that link breaks, same story in FuelFix): 

A Swiss developer is planning to build a $500 million real estate project in Williston, North Dakota, where a surging energy industry is leading to a population boom and rising property demand.

The two principals of developer Stropiq Inc. are at the International Council of Shopping Centers conference in Las Vegas this week trying to lure retailers to the 219-acre Williston Crossing project, scheduled to break ground in March. The 1 million-square-foot (93,000-square-meter) project will include retail, entertainment, hotel, office and multifamily buildings.

Stropiq and investors such as KKR & Co. are rushing to accommodate a ballooning population of energy workers in Williston, located in the oil-rich Bakken shale formation. The average rent for a small apartment in the western North Dakota town is higher than in New York or San Francisco, according to Apartment Guide. Along with housing, retail offerings in the city are in short supply, Stropiq executives said.

“If you want anything that doesn’t exist in a grocery store or Wal-Mart, you have to drive two hours,” said Terry Olin, a Stropiq principal and graduate of North Dakota State University in Fargo. “We’d like to change that as fast as we can.”

Stropiq already has a 93-unit apartment complex under development in Williston, with the first building scheduled to open in July, said Ellen Simone Weyrauch, a company principal. 

Folks may recall that General (ret) Petraeus just visited Williston a few weeks ago.

The booming economy has also lured other real estate investors, including KKR, developer of a housing development in Williston. Minot, North Dakota-based Investors Real Estate Trust (IRET) is building two apartment projects in Williston, the 44-unit Dakota Commons and the 288-unit Renaissance Heights, both scheduled to open next year. 

Stropiq Inc was also mentioned in a Reuters story back on June 30, 2013:

While billions of dollars in oil money may be rushing into North Dakota, big money has resisted financing large real estate deals there, barring some projects entirely and leading other developers to self-finance.

Many would-be financiers say the North Dakota oil patch real estate market is too hot to handle right now, with demand for housing outstripping supply, fueling high prices. The average two-bedroom apartment in the oil patch rents for more than $2,500 per month, helping drive land prices sky-high and sparking concern about a bubble. 

National homebuilders such as Pulte Group, D.R. Horton and Hovnanian Enterprises have yet to enter North Dakota. Pulte said it was focused on improving its market share on the East and West Coasts, as well as some Midwest states. The other two declined to comment. 

Some developers have decided to write their own checks in the meantime. Private equity firm KKR, which broke ground last month on 330 apartments as part of a 164-acre housing development, has yet to convince a bank to fund a construction loan. Plans for the total project include 810 apartments and lots for more than 300 single-family homes.