Random Update On CLR's Plan To Unitize Long Creek -- November 20, 2018

A reader wrote to tell me that he has received paperwork from CLR regarding Long Creek unitization. Needs mineral owner approval. In the December, 2018, hearing dockets:

CLR and the Long Creek development, 56 more wells in the unit. All owners received a load of papers from CLR. We will all get a new decimal interest when they start and share from all wells in the unitized area.

Long Creek is about eight miles east-southeast of Williston:

Photos from the reader:

Long Creek is tracked here, but it has not been updated in a very, very long time.

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The Literature Page

As noted, the Bible is one of the books I am now reading for history and literary reasons. I will limit myself to the Hebrew Bible, the Pentateuch, the Torah for now.

Back in 2012, I read a biography of the bible, by Karen Armstrong, Notes are here. I am now carrying that small book in my backpack and will re-read it and update the notes now that I have a better feeling for the authorship and the first five books of the Bible.

Karen's biography begins, Chapter 1, Torah --

In 597 BCE, the tiny state of Judah in the highlands of Canaan broke its vassalage treaty with Nebuchadnezzar, ruler of the powerful Babylonian empire. It was a catastrophic mistake. Three months later, the Babylonian army besieged Jerusalem, Judah's capital. The young king surrendered immediately and was deported to Babylonia, together with some ten thousand of the citizens who made the state viable: priests, military leaders, craftsmen, and metal workers. As they left Jerusalem, the exiles would have taken one last look at the temple built on Mount Zion by King Solomon (c. 970 - 930 BCE), the centre of their national and spiritual life, sadly aware that in all likelihood they would never see it again. Their fears were realized; in 586, after yet another rebellion in Judah, Nebuchadnezzar destroyed Jerusalem and burned Solomon's temple to the ground.

Key words:

• Judah: southern kingdom
• Canaan: land of milk and honey; the promise(d) land
• Babylonia: Babel
• Jerusalem: capital
• Mount Zion
• Solomon's Temple

A most interesting book, The Book of J, translation by David Rosenberg, commentary by Harold Bloom, fills in much of the void. It is conjecture and opinion, of course, but it allows the reader to reflect and consider his/her own ideas about that period of time and how the Bible came to be. Notes of that book are here. 

This is the New York Times review of The Book of J, translation by Rosenberg: link here.

Newfield To Drill Up To 70 Wells In South Tobacco Garden

From the December, 2018, NDIC hearing dockets (link here):

• Case (not permit) 27236, Newfield, South Tobacco Garden-Bakken, fourteen wells on each of five 1280-acre units; a total of 70 wells; McKenzie County; about 3 miles due west of Watford City -- 

• sections 16/21-150-99
• sections 17/20-150-99
• sections 18/19-150-99
• sections 28/33-150-99
• sections 29/32-150-99

The graphic (the "red stars" are at the center of the 1280-acre drilling units):

Some Light At The End Of The Tunnel? -- November 20, 2018

API weekly crude oil inventory: comes in at a decline of 1.545 million bbls. Last week it was a whopping build of almost 9 million bbls. Link here.

Eight New Permits; Twenty-One Permits Renewed -- November 20, 2018

Active rigs:

$53.50😟	11/20/2018	11/20/2017	11/20/2016	11/20/2015	11/20/2014
Active Rigs	62	56	39	65	186

Eight new permits:

• Operators: Whiting (6); Liberty Resources (2)
• Fields: Sand Creek (McKenzie); Enget Lake (Mountrail)
• Comments: Whiting has permits for a 6-well Tarpon Federal pad in 44-19-4H; Liberty Resources has permits for Christine / LTM pad in 10-158-93
• #35766: middle Bakken; 4/9-158-93; 1280-acre spacing unit; TD = 20,583 feet
• #35767: middle Bakken; 3/10-158-93; 1280-acre spacing unit; TD: 20,583 feet
• #35771: Three Forks B1; 18/19-153-96; TD = 22,209 feet
• #35773: Three Forks B1; appears to be sections 13/18/19/24 - 153-96; TD = 23,160 feet; within the Little Missouri National Grasslands

Two wells came off the confidential list:

• 32961, SI/NC, Oasis, Ceynar 5298 44-32 12T, Banks, t--; cum 88K 9/18;
• 34049, SI/NC, MRO, State Kreiger 14-36h, Bailey, t--; no production data;

One producing well (a DUC) reported as completed:

• 29842, 1,545, CLR, Hayes 4-6H, Crazy Man Creek, t9/18; cum 31K after 34 days; neighboring wells:
• 20193, jump in production back in 3/18; prior to #29842 being drilled/completed;
• 29843, recently fracked (late 2017)
• 29033, variable production since frack in 2015

Twenty-one permits renewed:

• EOG (6): three Burke permits and three Austin permits, all in Mountrail County;
• Oasis (6): six Lars permits in Mountrail County; 
• NP Resources (6): three McDonald permits and three LIttle Mo Federal permits, all in Billings County;
• MRO (3): a Smith USA permit; a Felix USA permit; and, a Elizabeth Felix USA permit, all in Dunn County

Change in operator status: about 40 wells transferred from Oasis to Whiting

• in McKenzie County
• in 150N-103W area

Flaring Rules Update: NDIC Has Approved Amendments For Flaring Policy -- November 20, 2018

From The Bismarck Tribune: NDIC to give oil industry more flexibility on flaring. Just in time -- considering the slump in oil prices.

... changed the goals of the gas capture policy first adopted in 2014 to focus on increasing the volume of captured gas rather than reducing the flared volume.

Commissioners also dropped the goals of reducing the number of wells flaring and reducing the duration of flaring. Instead, they added a goal of incentivizing investment. 

the Industrial Commission further expands the number of circumstances that allow a company to be in compliance with the gas capture policy even if the company’s flaring rate exceeds the benchmark.

The gas capture target increases to 88 percent for natural gas produced in November, which will be reported in January.

Director of Mineral Resources Lynn Helms recommended that commissioners postpone the 88 percent gas capture requirement for two years.

However, the commission stopped short of changing the timeline in anticipation of a change to the way flaring is regulated on the Fort Berthold Reservation. The Bureau of Land Management plans to defer regulation of flaring on trust lands to the Mandan, Hidatsa and Arikara Nation starting early next year.

Maybe someone else can provide "specific, actionable" changes. I certainly didn't get much from the NDIC press release or the news story.

NDIC screenshot.

Kraken To Drill As Many As Fourteen Wells In One 640-Acre Unit; Fourteen Wells In An Existing 1280-Acre Unit -- November 20, 2018

Staggering. December, 2018, NDIC hearing dockets.

Case (not permit) 27232: Application of Kraken Oil & Gas, LLC for an order for the Sanish-Bakken Pool, Mountrail County, ND, as follows: (i) authorizing the drilling, completing and producing of a total not to exceed fourteen wells on an existing 640-acre spacing unit described as Section 36, T.153N., R.92W.; and (ii) authorizing the drilling, completing and producing of a total not to exceed fourteen wells on an existing 1280-acre spacing unit described as Sections 13 and 24, T.154N., R.91W.; eliminating any tool error requirements and such other relief as is appropriate.

Section 36-153-92, 640-acre unit, as it is today, 14 additional wells:

Existing wells in this unit:

• 21212, 524, Kaiser-Francis, Blessings 11-36H, Sanish, t4/12; cum 132K 9/18;
• 16833, 1,099, Kaiser-Francis, Anna 11-36H, Sanish, t4/08; cum 224K 9/18;
• 21166, 679, Kaiser-Francis, Urho 11-36H, Sanish, t11/11; cum 151K 9/18;
  

**********************************

Sections 13/24-154-91, a 1280-acre unit, as it is today, fourteen additional wells::

Existing wells on this unis:

• 18200, IA/1,658, Kaiser-Francis, Kinnoin 24-13H, Sanish, t9/10; cum 661K 8/18;
• 22710, 615, Kaiser-Francis, Niemitalo 24-13H, Sanish, t1/13; cum 339K 9/18;
• 17338, 352, Kaiser-Francis, Carter Matthew 13-24H, Sanish, t9/09; cum 450K 8/18;
• 31242, conf, Kaiser-Francis,Torino 24-13H, Sanish, no production data

NDIC Hearing Dockets, December, 2018

NDIC posts the hearing dockets here.

Dockets are tracked here. 

The usual disclaimer applies. As usual this is done very quickly and using shorthand for my benefit. There will be factual and typographical errors on this page. Do not quote me on any of this. It's for my personal use to help me better understand the Bakken. Do not read it. If you do happen to read it, do not make any investment, financial, job, relationship, or travel plans based on anything you read here or think you may have read here. If this stuff is important to you, and I doubt that it is, but if it is, go to the source.

Highlights in bold. Completed.

Wednesday, December 19, 2018, Ten Pages

27126, Kraken, Epping-Bakken, setback rules, Williams
27127, Bruin, Antelope-Sanish, amend, establish an overlapping 2560-acre unit; two wells; McKenzie County
27128, MRO, Bailey-Bakken, amend, establish an overlapping 2560-are unit; two wells; Dunn
27129, Whiting, revoke a Nine Point Energy permit; Foreman Butte-Bakken, McKenzie
27130, Whiting, Middle Creek-Bakken, amend, i) establish two standup 1280-acre units; four wells; ii) establish an overlapping 2560-acre unit; one well; McKenzie
27131, Whiting, Glass Bluff and/or Randolph-Bakken, amend, i) terminate four existing 1280-acre units; ii) establish four standup 1280-acre units; four wells; iii) establish an overlapping 1920-unit, one well; iv) establish two overlapping 2560-acre units; McKenzie
27132, Whiting, Dutch Henry Butte-Bakken, amend, establish a 2560-acre unit; Stark
27133, Whiting, Elk-Bakken, amend, establish an overlapping 2560-acre, McKenzie
27134, Whiting, Sioux-Madison, recomplete the Taylor 34-7TFH, #24178; McKenzie
27135, Oasis, Camp-Bakken, amend, establish an overlapping 3680-acre unit, one well; McKenzie, Williams
27136, Enerplus, revoke PetroShale permits, Dunn
27137, Equinor (Statoil), commingling
27138, Lime Rock, pooling
27139, Lime Rock, pooling
27140, Lime Rock, pooling
27141, Lime Rock, pooling
27142, Lime Rock, pooling
27143, Lime Rock, pooling
27144, Lime Rock, pooling
27145, Lime Rock, pooling
27146, Lime Rock, pooling
27147, Lime Rock, pooling
27148, Lime Rock, pooling
27149, Lime Rock, pooling
27150, Lime Rock, pooling
27151, Lime Rock, pooling
27152, Lime Rock, pooling
27153, Lime Rock, pooling
27154, Lime Rock, pooling
27155, Lime Rock, pooling
27156, Hydra, SWD
27157, Whiting, commingling
27158, Whiting, commingling
27159, Whiting, commingling
27160, Hess, pooling
27161, Petro-Hunt, pooling
27162, Petro-Hunt, pooling
27163, Petro-Hunt, pooling
27164, BR, Charlson-Bakken, two wells on an existing 1280-acre unit; McKenzie
27165, BR, Clear Creek-Bakken and/or Camel Butte-Bakken; 16 wells on an existing 1280-acre unit; sections 4/9-151-96; McKenzie
27167, BR, Lone Butte-Bakken, eleven wells on an existing 1280-acre unit; Dunn
27168, BR, pooling
27169, MRO, commingling
27170, Oasis, SWD
27171, Oasis, SWD,
27172, Bosque, SWD,

Thursday, December 20, 2018, Fourteen Pages

27173, NDIC, Foreman Butte-Madison, Samson Oil; review the injectivity test, file #15646, McKenzie County
27174, WPX, Spotted Horn-Bakken, amend, establish an overlapping 1280-acre unit; two wells; McKenzie
27175, WPX, Mandaree-Bakken, amend, establish an overlapping 2560-acre unit; two wells; Dunn County
27176, WPX, Antelope-Sanish, amend, establish an overlapping 2,412.30-acre unit; two wells; McKenzie
27177, RimRock, McGregory Buttes-Bakken, amend, establish an overlapping 1280-acre unit; two wells; Dunn
27178, RimRock, Moccasin Creek-Bakken, amend, establish an overlapping 1280-acre unit; four wells; Dunn County
27179, RimRock, Twin Buttes-Bakken, amend, i) establish an overlapping 1280-acre unit, two wells; ii) establish an overlapping 1280-acre unit, one well; iii) establish an overlapping 1280-acre unit, 4 wells; iv) establish an overlapping 1600-acre unit; sixteen wells on W/2 W/2 of section 17 and 20, and all of section 18/19-147-91; Dunn County
27180, RimRock, setback relief, Dunn County
27181, Rimrock, setback relief, Dunn County
27182, XTO, Tobacco Garden-Bakken, to reduce the number of wells required on an existing overlapping 1920-acre unit from six wells to three wells; McKenzie County
27183, XTO, Haystack Butte-Bakken, amend, establish an overlapping 1920-acre unit; 5 wells; ii) establish an overlapping 3840-acre unit, one well; Dunn
27184, Newfield, Tobacco Garden-Bakken, amend, establish two overlapping 2560-acre units; one well each; McKenzie
27185, Slawson, setback relief for production equipment; McKenzie County
27186, EOG, setback relief, McKenzie County
27187, CLR, Jim Creek-Bakken, amend, establish an overlapping 2560-acre unit; one well; Dunn
27188, CLR, Epping-Bakken, amend, establish an overlapping 2560-acre unit; one well; Williams County
27189, CLR, Brooklyn-Bakken, amend, establish an overlapping 2560-acre unit; one well; Williams County
27190, CLR, East Fork-Bakken, amend, establish two overlapping 2560-acre units; one well each, Williams County
27191, CLR, Camp-Bakken, amend, i) establish an overlapping 1920-acre unit; ii) establish an overlapping 3200-acre unit; one well each; Williams, McKenzie
27192, CLR, Catwalk and/or Last Chance-Bakken, amend, i) establish two overlapping 2560-acre units, one well; ii) establish an overlapping 3840-acre unit, one well; McKenzie, Williams
27193, CLR, Hamlet-Bakken, amend, establish an overlapping 2560-acre unit; one well; Divide
27194, CLR, Banks-Bakken, amend, establish an overlapping 2560-acre unit, two wells; Williams, McKenzie
27195, Pegasus, risk penalty legalese, the Moberg wells, QEP, McKenzie
27196, CLR, unitized management of Long Creek-Bakken Unit Area; Williams, McKenzie
27197, CLR, Long Creek-Bakken Unit Area, unitization details, Williams, McKenzie
27198, RimRock, Moccasin Creek-Bakken, 7 wells on an existing 1280-acre unit; Dunn
27200, RimRock, Twin Butte-Bakken, i) four wells on an existing 1280-acre unit; ii) sixteen wells on an existing 1280-acre unit; iii) 5 wells on an existing 1280-acre unit; iv) eleven wells on an existing 1280-acre unit; v) two wells on an existing 1920-acre unit; vi) seven wells on an existing 2560-acre unit; Dunn County
27201, Enerplus, pooling
27202, Enerplus, pooling
27203, Enerplus, pooling
27204, Enerplus, pooling
27205, Enerplus, pooling
27206, Enerplus, pooling
27207, XTO, pooling
27208, XTO, pooling
27209, XTO, pooling
27210, XTO, pooling
27211, XTO, pooling
27212, XTO, commingling
27213, XTO, commingling
27214, XTO, commingling
27215, XTO, commingling
27216, XTO, SWD
27217, XTO, commingling
27218, CLR, pooling,
27219, CLR, pooling,
27220, CLR, pooling,
27221, CLR, pooling,
27222, CLR, pooling,
27223, CLR, pooling,
27224, CLR, pooling,
27225, CLR, pooling,
27226, CLR, pooling,
27227, CLR, pooling,
27228, CLR, pooling,
27229, CLR, Pleasant Valley-Bakken, i) eight wells on an existing 1280-acre unit; ii) eight wells on an existing 1920-acre unit; Williams
27230, CLR, Pershing-Bakken, two wells on an existing overlapping 2560-acre unit; McKenzie
27231, CLR, Catwalk-Bakken, six wells on an existing 1280-acre unit, Williams
27232, Kraken, i) fourteen wells on an existing 640-acre unit; ii) fourteen wells on an existing 1280-acre unit, Mountrail; see this post;
27233, WPX, pooling
27234, WPX, commingling
27235, WPX, commingling
27236, Newfield, South Tobacco Garden-Bakken, fourteen wells on each of five 1280-acre units; a total of 70 wells; McKenzie;

WTI? The Big Winner? China -- November 20, 2018

American consumers love $1.99-gasoline.

And the Chinese love $50-oil from the US; $20-oil from Canada.

WTI: down over 5% today. Now testing $54/bbl.

Hillary said she was going put a lot of coal miners out of work.

Looks like Trump is doing a better job than Obama putting roughnecks out of work.

China? Loving it.

The Market, Energy, And Political Page, T+14 -- November 20, 2018 20

Slowly but surely, electricity grid prices moving up. Nothing new here; simply for the archives. Demand will drop off significantly Thanksgiving Day and Black Friday. From ISO New England:

$55 oil: years ago I suggested that $50-oil was the "goldlilocks" price:

• American shale operators will survive
• American consumers will enjoy $1.99-gasoline (except out in California)
• Saudi will struggle
• Russia will struggle
• it will play havoc with non-dispatchable energy
• President Trump said today he wants to see the price of oil go lower  (which can be interpreted several ways)

From google:

Non-Dispatchable. In contrast, non-dispatchable refers to everything else. This includes all current nuclear power plants, most coal power plants, and run-of-river hydroelectric plants. It also includes intermittent energy sources such as wind, solar photovoltaics, and wave energy.

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The Book Page

Second or third reading of The Lagoon: How Aristotle Invented Science, Armand Marie Leroi, c. 2014.

This is a top shelf book.

It fascinated me when I first saw it at Barnes and Noble some time ago. My first reading: not particularly impressed, and did not read it closely. I keep pulling it off the shelf, reading bits and pieces to see if I could figure out what I was missing, or if "I was ready to read it."

I have a lot of books that way: a number of "coffee-table books" are still in their shrink wrap. I know I will eventually enjoy them but my mind is not quite ready for them for some reason.

The Bible is an excellent example. I had not read the Bible in ages, but a few weeks ago, for whatever reason, I felt ready to tackle the Torah, the Pentateuch, the Hebrew Bible from a historical and literary point of view. I was most interested in the authorship; how the Bible came to be; etc. I found it fascinating. I read Genesis closely; Exodus a bit more quickly; skimmed through Leviticus and Numbers, and then slowed down again when I got to Deuteronomy. I will go back through some of those book again before I move on to Joshua and Judges. For all I know, that's about where I will stop, until my mind is ready to read more.

I finished my third reading of Absolutely Small, a great book on quantum theory -- it gets better with each reading. LOL. I have put it aside and will return to it in a year or so, I suppose.

I'm looking for my highly marked-up copy of Wuthering Heights. It's possible I gave it away last year. That's fine. But I'm ready to re-read parts of Wuthering Heights.

But now, today, Aristotle. Contemporary of Alexander the Great, and his teacher.

This is interesting. On the back of the book jacket, The Lagoon got an endorsement from "Philip Hoare, author of Levithan, or The Whale. I have two copies of that book on my top shelf: one was the edition published in Great Britain; the other was the edition published in the United States. I have read it but remember little of it. I will have to go back to read it again ... and, of course, that will lead to Herman Melville and Moby Dick.

But now, on to The Lagoon.

One more digression. Some years ago I sent this short note to Arianna, our oldest granddaughter whose interest at the time was marine biology (and that interest continues -- she is looking to attend University of Texas - Galveston for its marine biology program -- apparently one of the best -- if not the best program in America -- for undergraduates). This letter from me to her is undated:

But now, this is really, really cool. Apple "Finder" keeps track of all this. Through "Finder" I note that this PDF was "created" on August 3, 2013, at 2:03 p.m. I must have sent her the note in the mail, and then sometime later found it at her house. Note her annotation at the bottom. She was noting that pelicans are also found in "lagoons."

By the way, the most recent new word I gave to Arianna: nonvolant, as in "nonvolant mammals."

The NFL Is Everything NASCAR Is Not -- November 20, 2018

They're back to televising the national anthem preceding NFL games. At least in some cases. The NFL figured out how to "orchestrate" that. Well played, NFL.

I quit watching the NFL some time ago, although I would watch parts of games that were particularly interesting for some reason. But gradually, I have been lured back into watching.

Last night the game lived up to all the hype.

From Drudge:

The NFL had planned to pit one of the best of the AFC against one of the best of the NFC mid-season in Mexico City -- sort of foreshadowing the Super Bowl, I suppose. Because the football field in Mexico City was not "safe" for players -- the field, not the stadium -- the NFL, at the last minute, moved the game to Los Angeles, to be played in the Coliseum, a venue that had not seen the NFL in years (decades?). There was a lot of scrambling to fill the seats, including getting entire families of players there and giving away lots of free tickets. Result: it appeared to be a standing room only event. The cheering / yelling / enthusiasm was non-stop.

The game lived up to the hype; in fact, exceeded the hype.

A google search provides this example:

Two stories from hundreds:

• Rams-Chiefs broke the NFL for good, so what happens next?
• Rams outlast Chiefs 54-51 in record Monday night showdown 

The best thing about last night's game: Kaepernick was nowhere to be found. Nowhere. Rumors are floating that he wants to play again. At least one team is in desperate need of a back-up quarterback; if Kaepernick's phone does not ring .... let's only hope. He's making a ton of money off the fields, but one can conservatively say he gave up $71 million for his foolishness. We'll come back to that later.

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Where did that $71 million figure come from? Here.

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The NFL Is Everything NASCAR Is Not

Some random thoughts; some my own; most of them stolen from others:

• NASCAR is dying: the stands for the championship race were half-full at best
• A mid-season NFL game hastily arranged became a standing-room-only event
• NASCAR no longer has any story lines and it's not just because the "great names" have retired
• NASCAR has changed the "game" so much it has become boring even for rabid fans (and, oh, by the way, rabies is fatal)
• NASCAR seldom lives up to the hype
• several weeks ago it looked like the Truex-Logano feud would make the championship race exciting
• Truex faded early and never offered any real competition for Logano
• the championship race was so boring one reader suggested next year they should race tractors or combines (threshing machines for NYC readers)
• NASCAR stage racing: this would be akin to the NFL starting each quarter afresh, 0 - 0, and only the fourth quarter really counting; giving a single point to the "winner" of each quarter towards "points" for a championship game
• I go back and forth on stage racing, but for the championship race, stage racing was ridiculous
• from what I can tell, NASCAR has no ideas on how to change; how to become relevant again
• after last night's NFL game between the AFC Kansas City Chiefs and the NFC Los Angeles Rams, both 9-1 going into the game, everything changed for the NFL
• Jerry Jones must be going nuts; his world is passing him by; he bet on a great horse, but, still, it was the wrong horse -- I'm not talking players, I'm talking style of play
• four teams represent the new NFL -- New Orleans, Patriots, LA Rams, and KC Chiefs
• KC Chiefs? Who would have thought?
• how did the Philadelphia Eagles fall so far so fast; even the Cowboys at a dismal 5-5, are beating the Eagles, 4-6

More on this later but need to move on for now.

Wells Coming Off The Confidential List Will Be Reported Later Today -- Six Months Ago It Was A Monday, Late Spring -- November 20, 2018

Wells coming off the confidential list today will be posted later today when the daily activity report is released.

Active rigs:

$56.38😟	11/20/2018	11/20/2017	11/20/2016	11/20/2015	11/20/2014
Active Rigs	62	56	39	65	186

RBN Energy: contango markets and their influence on Cushing inventories.

During the summer of 2018, crude oil inventories at the trading hub in Cushing, OK, dropped to extreme lows. With estimated tank bottoms around 14.6 MMbbl, Cushing stockpiles hit 21.8 MMbbl for the week of August 3. Traders’ alarm bells were ringing, and upstream and downstream observers were wondering if low storage levels were going to cause significant operational issues. But just when it seemed tanks were nearing catastrophic lows, inventories reversed course and started to climb.

Since August, crude stocks have increased by 13.6 MMbbl, or nearly 60%, and there is now talk of potentially too much crude en route to Cushing, maxing out capacity there. There are many contributing factors to this most recent inventory swing, with increased domestic production and the tail end of refinery turnaround season being two of the bigger fundamental drivers. But the main catalyst has been the shift from a backwardated forward curve to a contango forward curve in the WTI futures market. Today, we continue our Cushing series with a snapshot of recent contango markets and the impact those prices have had on stockpiles at the central Oklahoma hub.