Hess With One New Permit; Seven DUCs Reported As Completed -- September 27, 2023

Locator: 45597B.  

WTI: $93.68.

Active rigs: 33.

One new permit, #40229:

• Operator: Hess
• Field: Robinson Lake (Mountrail Country)
• Comments:
• Hess has a single permit for an EN-Horst well, SWSW 10-154-93, 
• to be sited 391 FSL and 530 FWL;

One permit was renewed:

• 31730, conf, Enerplus, Wallaby 152-94-23DH-TF2,

Seven producing wells (DUCs) reported as completed:

• 39002, 524, Slawson, Lunker Federal 6-33-4TFH,
• 39003, 378, Slawson,  Lunker Federal 7-33-4TFH,
• 39200, 547, Slawson, Voyager 4-28H,
• 39204, 1,353, Slawson, Cannonball Federal 3 SLH,
• 29286, 1,236, Slawson, Phatkat Federal 4-18-7TFH,
• 39563, 1,017, Kraken, Blaine 33-28 2H
• 39564, 1,386, Kraken, Blaine 33-28 3H,

$94 -- September 27, 2023

Locator: 45596WTI. 

Link here.

The one-two punch:

• Biden: no more drilling
• E&P: no increase in CAPEX

Governor Newsom, California: say what?

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Technology 101

Link here. 

To Philly with love:

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US Grant's Horse Cincinnati

Multiple sources.

From his deathbed in St. Louis, an old and frail S. S. Grant gave this horse to U. S. Grant.

That was in January, 1864, and General Grant had just won the Battle of Chattanooga.

Battle of Chattanooga:

• November 23 - 25, 1863
• Chattanooga: on the Tennessee side of the state line with Chattanooga, midway between Nashville to the northwest and Atlanta, Georgia to the southeast.

Weekly EIA Petroleum Report -- September 27, 2023

Locator: 45595OIL.  

Amount of oil in storage, measured in days, actually moved up ever so slightly: link here.

 Weekly EIA petroleum report: link here. 

• US crude oil in storage: 4% below the five-year average; decreased by 2.2 million bbls; 416.3 million bbls in storage.
  
• imports: 7.2 million bbls; increased by 711,000 bopd; 8.2% more than same period last year -- multiple reasons for increase;
  
• refiners: wow, wow, wow -- seasonal maintenance? 89.5%.
  
• distillate: 13% below the five-year average
• gasoline: decreased
  
• jet fuel supplied: 9.9% -- quite remarkable.
  

WTI after report released: up a remarkable 2.5%; up $2.26; trading at $92.65.

• an hour later, up 3.34%; up $3.02; and, trading at $93.41.

Markets:

• CVX: up 1.4% today; up $2.35; trading above $170;
• DVN: up 2.36% today; up $1.12; trading above $48;
• MPC: up 1.37%; up $2.007; trading above $153;
• OKE: flat. Trading at $64.49.

LinkedIn: If One Hasn't CheckedIn Lately -- Time To Do So -- Seriously -- September 27, 2023

Locator: 45594SOCIAL. 

Link here.

I'm a fair weather "visitor" to the site. I go there when I need to find someone. Meta, others, have a lot of competition. What a great country.

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The Book Club

The friends that saved the first folio. 

Link here. 

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Phrase of the Day

Nick breeding.

To find the right mares to breed means everything to a stud (and his owner). To find the best broodmares, one can step back a generation and take a look at their sires, and then employ what is now known in breeding as a "nick."

Nick breeding involves putting a selection of mars sired by a particlar stallionn to an unreelated statllion. If thhos crosses consistently produce winners, a nick is created. 

In Kim Wickens' Lexington, "the nick would eventually come in the form of broodmares sired by the small but powerful chestnut stallion named Glencoe.

More:

A champion Britishh Thhoroughbred, Glencoe was the youngest horse ever to win Britain's coveted Goodwood Cup -- a holdover from the old king's plates distance races.

A mere day after wining the cup, he ran in Goodwood's Racing Sweepstakes and cantered home for the trophy. He followed those victories with winds in the Garden Stakes at Newemarket, as well as theAscot Gold Cup and the Whip, at England's Ascot Racecourse. 

He retired as a champion at the age of four in 1835, spurring The Sporting Magazine of London to write, "Glencoe has shown himself the best horse in the world. Where is there one to be found to meet him at weight for age? Not in England, assuredly.

The following year, Glencoe was imported to America and, starting in 1848, stood several stud seasons in central Kentucky.

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Word of the Day

Get: progeny of sire. Link here. In Kim's book, p. 183.

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On Another Note

Haven't missed a Spanish lesson since Sophia and I began studying together more than three years ago though Sophia is not participating much any more. Sad face.

Oil Starting To Move -- September 27, 2023

Locator: 45593WTI.

Weekly EIA petroleum report: pending.

From Bloomberg today:

The path followed by oil prices for the rest of the year won’t be determined in Moscow, the US shale patch, or even OPEC’s headquarters in Vienna. It will be dictated by Riyadh.

Take Russia: The country’s latest export ban, on gasoline and diesel, isn’t aimed at global markets. The government needs to ensure adequate fuel supplies to domestic buyers after slashing the subsidy it pays refiners to sell products locally. Once processors have been beaten into submission, or at least reached a satisfactory compromise, overseas flows will resume.

Energy revenues are too important for Moscow to allow a lengthy export halt. Its restriction on crude shipments, notionally extended to the end of the year, is already showing cracks.

US shale producers also won’t hold much sway. They may agitate for more oil-friendly government policies, but they admit they have no intention of markedly boosting output in response to crude’s march toward $100 a barrel.

As far as OPEC+ goes, the group’s November meeting to set production policy is almost irrelevant. Most members are already pumping at capacity, unable to reach their targets.

WTI today, surging: 

US market:

• CVX: pre-market, up $1.80; uup 1.1%.
• DVN: way below its highs, but up 1.6% in pre-market trading;
• MPC: pre-market, up $1.67; up 1.11%
• OKE: pre-market, up 1%

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Flashback: Menwith Hill Station

A huge part of my life back in 2004 or thereabouts.

Link here.

I did not know this site (the blog) existed. I happened to run across it when I did a "person's name" search. The individual for whom I was searching is completely off the grid and has been for as long as I've known him / her. There should be no way that individual could have gotten me to the linked site, but there you have it. 

I had pretty much "forgotten" about MHS until I read Kim Wicken's book on Lexington, the racehorse.

Also, Horse.

Wow, I still have such great memories of MHS, Yorkshire, the people.

The walks were incredible. I really don't to what I can compare Yorkshire with regard to walking.

I would do almost anything to return, but I won't give up Sophia.

Maybe when I'm ninety years old.

China Collapse -- September 27, 2023

Locator: 45592CHINA.

Remember all that talk that China's economy would surpass that of the US?

From Peter Zeihan today:

Link here.

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Flashback

From the year of the plague, 2020:

Cushing -- September 27, 2023

Locator: 45591B.

Link here.

Gasoline prices: link here.

Overnight:

Governor Newsom: the spike in gasoline prices in California is due to refiners not maintaining adequate supplies. 

And GasBuddy agrees. By the way, "GasBuddy" over at twitter banned me some time ago. LOL. That's when you know you've made the big time -- when "GasBuddy" bans you from accessing their site.

Apparently California is down to nine refineries in state, and will lose another refinery next year. Other sources say 14, down from m16 in 2018. Link here. Throughput took a big hit in 2020 -- the year of the plague and has never recovered.

Link here. I'll check again to see if I'm still banned. I thought Elon was going to change that.

Nope, still blocked. LOL. And I thought I had a thin skin, as they say. Sign of a bogus site. AAA does a much better job.

Headlines -- September 27, 2023

Locator: 45590B.

We can add this headline to the list posted two days ago.

Cushing lows. Links everywhere; stories everywhere. 

UK: approves a controversial $3.8-billion oil and gas project -- development plan for the Rosebank project, North Sea, Equinor. Link here.

Posted two days ago:

Fossil fuel: quick look at headlines overnight suggests fossil fuels are back; renewable energy, global warming issues facing headwinds. Apparently some folks don’t like the idea of $7-gasoline. Overnight headlines;

• OPEC+ cuts offset by booming US oil production
• oil demand destruction in India won't happen at $100-oil
• court upholds order to expand oil and gas lease sale in Gulf of Mexico, the expansion Biden tried to stop -- illegally -- he learned well from Obama, who actually went to law school
• Groningen finally closing for good -- well, except for emergencies for one more winter; link here.
  
• Goldman Sachs ignores activists' calls to "abandon" oil and gas investments
• Trans Mountain oil pipeline back on track; regulator, in what seems record time, approve the requested route change 
• short sells scramble as energy stocks surge (whoo-hoo)
• energy fund manager predicts major upside for oil equities
• OPEC+ cuts offset by booming US oil production: US production to hit 13 million bopd by the end of this month, matching the record output from November, 2019. Link here.

Not On My Bingo Card This Morning -- Cushing At Minimums -- September 27, 2023

Locator: 45589B.

Cushing lows. Links everywhere; stories everywhere. 

UK: approves a controversial $3.8-billion oil and gas project -- development plan for the Rosebank project, North Sea, Equinor. Link here.

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Back to the Bakken

WTI: $91.87. Up 1.64%; up $1.48. Oil prices climb as Cushing oil stocks near historic lows. Generally stories on Cushing are posted by the B-team but this story was a headline story posted by Charles Kennedy -- so you know it's important.

Thursday, September 28, 2023: 117 for the month; 319 for the quarter, 564 for the year
38988, conf, Hess, RS-Harstad-155-91-0433H-8,

Wednesday, September 27, 2023: 116 for the month; 318 for the quarter, 563 for the year
39564, conf, Kraken, Blaine 33-28 3H,
38987, conf, Hess, RS-Harstad-LE-155-91-0433H-1,

RBN Energy: E&Ps slow CAPEX growth amid talk of cost deflation in 2024.

Rapidly rising prices for goods and services have plagued the economy since the onset of the pandemic — and led the Federal Reserve to ratchet up interest rates to help cool things off. Despite strong signs that overall inflation is receding, the negative impacts are far from over. Like every other sector, the U.S. E&P industry faced soaring costs as it struggled to restore production after widespread shut-ins in the spring of 2020. However, in recent Q2 2023 earnings calls E&P executives provided guidance that suggested that costs had not only plateaued but might actually decline in 2024 and beyond. In today’s RBN blog, we discuss updated 2023 capital spending guidance for U.S. oil and gas producers and their early outlook for 2024 investment.

After the pandemic-induced plunge in crude oil prices in early 2020, the 42 E&P companies we monitor — every publicly held U.S. E&P with a market cap of over $500 million — slashed capital investment by 50% to just $34 billion to conserve cash. Despite an oil-price recovery, E&P spending inched up only 6% in 2021 to $39.1 billion. However, 10% to 20% inflation in oilfield goods and services combined with the need to boost the inventory of drilled but uncompleted wells (DUCs) after a steep pandemic drawdown drove a 24% increase in initial 2022 investment guidance to nearly $50 billion. As we said in our blog Take It Easy, sustained high commodity prices allowed producers to increase drilling to offset steep shale decline rates, sending their capex guidance up 4% in both Q2 2022 and Q3 2022, then accelerate another 12% in Q4 2022. The result was total 2022 expenditures of $60.1 billion, up 54% from the previous year and the largest year-over-year growth rate in over a decade.