First In-Depth Look At Busy Area For BR -- Elidah Oil Field -- Cleetwood, Phantom Ship, Mazama -- August 27, 2024

Locator: 48467PHANTOM.

Elidah oil field.

BR.

Cleetwood, Phantom Ship, and Mazama wells. 

Readers may recognize these names associated with the area around Portland, Oregon. 

The maps:

 

The wells:

• 36145, loc/A, BR, Phantom Ship 1B UTFH, Elidah, t4/23; cum 218K 6/24;
  
• 30861, loc/A, BR, Cleetwood 11-27TFH-A, Elidah, t4/23; cum 184K 6/24;
  
• 30860, loc/A, BR, RollaCleetwood 11-27MBH ULW, Elidah, t4/23; cum 302K 6/24;
  
• 36146, loc/A, BR, MazamaPhantom 1A MBH-ULW, Elidah, t4/23; cum 291K 6/24;
  

• 19487, 2,108, BR, Cleetwood 11-27H, Elidah, t6/11; cum 635K 6/24;
  

• 19102, 1,885, BR, Phantom Ship 24-22H, Elidah, t12/10; cum 833K 6/24;

• 32425, loc/A, BR, Cleetwood 21-27TFH-A, Elidah, t3/22; cum 243K 6/24;
• 32428, loc/A, BR, Phantom Ship 3A UTFH, Elidah, t4/22; cum 322K 6/24;
• 32426, loc/A, BR, Cleetwood 21-27MBH-A, Elidah, t3/22; cum 307K 6/24;
• 32427, loc/A, BR, Phantom Ship 3B MBH, Elidah, t4/22; cum 424K 6/24;

• 36144, loc/A, BR, Phantom Ship 3D MBH, Elidah, t4/22; cum 504K 6/24;
  
• 30818, loc/A, BR, Cleetwood 31-27MBH-A, Elidah, t4/22; cum 442K 6/24;
• 30817, loc/A, BR, Phantom Ship 3C UTFH, Elidah, t4/22; cum 348K 6/24;
• 31003, loc/A, BR, Cleetwood 31-27TFH-A, Elidah, t4/22; cum 283K 6/24;

• 41033, conf, BR, Cleetwood 7C, Elidah,
  
• 41034, conf, BR, Cleetwood 7B, Elidah,
• 40913, conf, BR, Cleetwood 7A, Elidah,
• 41050, conf, BR, Phantom Backbone 7D-ULW, Elidah,
• 41035, conf, BR, Phantom Ship 7C, Elidah,
• 41036, conf, BR, Phantom Ship 7B, Elidah,
• 40914, conf, BR, Phantom Ship 7A, Elidah,

Farther to the west, not shown on the map above, but in the map below:

The wells, to the west:

• 19690, 2,884, BR, Mazama 44-21H, Elidah, t7/11; cum 555K 6/24;
  

• 37516, loc/A, BR, Mazama 4A UTFH, Elidah, npd after two months;
  
• 37517, loc/A, BR, Mazama 1D MBH, npd after one month;
• 37518, loc/A, BR, Mazama 2A UTFH, npd after one month;
• 37519, 4,119, BR, Mazama 2B, MBH, npd after two months; came off confidential list September 3, 2024; link here.
  
• 37520, loc/A, BR, Mazama 2C UTFH, Elidah, very early production,
  

Neighboring Fracks Continue To Enhance This Well -- August 27, 2024

Re-posting.

Locator: 48466PHANTOM.

Locator: 10010PHANTOM.

Updates

August 27, 2024: there is currently a lot of activity going on in this area (see original post). Let's see how this well, #19102, is doing. The well:

• 19102, 1,885, BR, Phantom Ship 24-22H, Elidah, t12/10; cum 833K 6/24;
  

Pool	Date	Days	BBLS Oil	Runs	BBLS Water	MCF Prod	MCF Sold	Vent/Flare
BAKKEN	6-2024	14	6532	6699	5543	32424	30669	1591
BAKKEN	5-2024	31	6990	6905	7489	42380	41502	507
BAKKEN	4-2024	30	8686	8659	7064	46273	45410	487
BAKKEN	3-2024	31	10090	9968	7860	48999	48002	609
BAKKEN	2-2024	26	10764	10693	7963	50594	49685	583
BAKKEN	1-2024	25	11183	11238	7247	43534	42621	600
BAKKEN	12-2023	28	13099	13094	9040	51293	50221	721
BAKKEN	11-2023	21	13838	14009	9766	51091	50098	742
BAKKEN	10-2023	25	17241	17001	9776	60911	59788	810
BAKKEN	9-2023	30	16011	16072	11190	51232	50062	794
BAKKEN	8-2023	31	16874	16873	14015	53432	52106	938
BAKKEN	7-2023	29	17126	17284	19171	52512	51180	969
BAKKEN	6-2023	14	9182	8553	13950	25162	24499	488
BAKKEN	5-2023	2	1	0	0	2	0	0
BAKKEN	4-2023	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	3-2023	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	2-2023	21	15253	15727	7579	43532	42550	719
BAKKEN	1-2023	31	17375	17285	9057	45273	44047	838
BAKKEN	12-2022	19	11145	11231	6401	28889	28101	550
BAKKEN	11-2022	22	14053	13981	7582	36133	34538	1015
BAKKEN	10-2022	31	18503	18615	11604	48453	46090	1546
BAKKEN	9-2022	27	20953	20974	13822	54035	51855	1468
BAKKEN	8-2022	31	20899	20685	15558	54467	52048	1602
BAKKEN	7-2022	20	16944	17243	15926	44427	41946	1954
BAKKEN	6-2022	26	15981	15707	16420	41781	39539	1557

Original Post

Almost every pundit / theorist says this is not supposed to happen. They've not read the "original paper."

The well:

• 19102, 1,885, BR, Phantom Ship 24-22H, Elidah, t12/10; cum 540K 6/22;Recent production: 18,381 bbls over 12 days extrapolates to 46K over 30 days. Just saying. After ten years of production. Just saying.

Pool	Date	Days	BBLS Oil	Runs	BBLS Water	MCF Prod	MCF Sold	Vent/Flare
BAKKEN	6-2022	26	15981	15707	16420	41781	39539	1557
BAKKEN	5-2022	12	18381	18062	20673	44302	42711	1275
BAKKEN	4-2022	1	2254	2431	0	2593	2593	0
BAKKEN	3-2022	1	58	58	0	2368	2368	0
BAKKEN	2-2022	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	1-2022	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	12-2021	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	11-2021	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	10-2021	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	9-2021	14	924	1030	180	2387	2332	20
BAKKEN	8-2021	31	2461	2608	507	5975	5898	0

USDA Update -- Grain -- August 27, 2024

Locator: 48465GRAIN.

Link here. 

Solar On Edge -- Now It's Europe -- August 27, 2024

Locator: 48464SOLAR.

Link here.

Five New Permits; Six DUCs Reported As Completed -- August 27, 2024

Locator: 48463B.

Investing: all three major indices closed in the green today. The Dow (DJIA) eked out another all-time, though it was close. NVID had a strong day going into tomorrow when Nvidia reports earnings.

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Back to the Bakken

Reminder: one basis point = 0.0001 or 0.01%.

WTI: $75.53.

Active rigs: 40.

Five new permits, #41068 - #4072, inclusive:

• Operators: Zavanna (3); BR (2):
• Fields: Epping (Williams); Lone Butte (Dunn)
• Comments:
• Zavanna has permits for three Olympia wells, SESW 36-155-99; t
• o be sited 250 FSL at 1587 FWL; 1647 FWL; and, 1677 FWL;
• BR has permits for two Tilton wells, SENW 18-147-97, 
• one at 2205 FNL and 2546 FWL; the other, 2186 FNL and 2571 FWL

Six producing wells (DUCs) reported as completed:

• 31203, 813, BR, Abercrombie 4-8-12 UTFH,
• 31204, 1,708, BR, Abercrombie 5-8-12 MBH,
• 33902, 356, Slawson, Mole 4-20TFH,
• 37520, 83, BR, Mazama 2C UTFH,
• 39924, 459, Slawson, Switchback 4-21UTFH,
• 39925, 498, Slawson, Switchback 5-21UTFH,

Reposting: The VW-Rivian Deal -- August 27, 2024

Locator: 48462EVS.

Locator: 48041EVS. 

Reposting
Updates

August 27, 2024, in The Atlantic, July 8, 2024:

From the linked article:

Volkswagen is partnering with Rivian not because it wants access to the company’s manufacturing expertise or even its EV technology. It’s doing so because it wants access to Rivian’s software. What this deal represents is an admission by Volkswagen that it needs help, and that its attempt to go it alone with EVs has stalled. But that’s progress. As they say, the first step to solving a problem is admitting that you have one.

On the face of it, the deal may look almost like an act of charity by Volkswagen. VW is investing $1 billion up front in Rivian itself, another $1 billion later this year in the joint venture (which will focus on developing software and electronics for EVs), and a further $2 billion if certain financial goals are met, plus an additional $1 billion loan to Rivian down the line. The EV maker, meanwhile, isn’t putting up any cash; all it’s contributing is its knowledge and intellectual property.This is unquestionably a good deal for Rivian, because it’s getting what it most needs right now: money. 

Running a car company is very expensive, especially in the early stages when the company needs billions in plant and equipment, and it has no economies of scale because it isn’t making that many vehicles. (Rivian is supposed to sell 57,000 of its models this year. Volkswagen, in contrast, delivered more than 9 million vehicles worldwide last year.) Even though Rivian’s SUV and pickup truck have gotten glowing reviews and are very popular among high-end car buyers, the company is still losing more than $38,000 per vehicle. So VW’s billions will come in handy, which is why Rivian’s stock—which had been bumping along at about 10 percent of its 2021 IPO price—jumped 50 percent when the deal was announced.

What’s interesting, though, is that this could turn out to be an even better deal for Volkswagen. That’s because it could solve one of the biggest problems VW has faced in recent years: making software for its electric vehicles that actually works. When VW rolled out its ID.3 model, which was supposed to be its flagship electric sedan, the vehicle’s software was glitchy, the touch screen was unreliable, and some drivers complained that the traffic-detection technology was so erratic that their cars were braking suddenly for no reason.

Even more frustrating for owners, VW was unable to consistently update the software wirelessly in real time, something Tesla has been doing for years. At one point, ID owners had to drop their car off at the dealer to get a hardware update that was supposed to improve the software updates—an unofficial recall, in effect. Software problems also led to delays in the release of the ID.4 and actual recalls after its launch, as well as coding issues with vehicles from VW’s luxury brands Audi and Porsche.

Original Post 

Today [June 26, 2024], one day after the deal was announced: the Rivian deal starts to make more sense; speaks volumes about what's going on in Germany; spoiler alert: not much -

• the deal likely saved Rivian; The WSJ calls the cash infusion a "lifeline."
• Rivian is burning through $1 billion / month
• had $9 billion in cash before deal announced
• VW cash infusion: simply buys five more months at current cash burn
• production absolutely flat
• but the big story -- VW needs an American EV company; can't make EVs profitably in Germany; energy costs too high; US now exporting more “energy” than it consumes — EIA.
• VW shareholders not happy: Volkswagen down 2%;
  

Barron's: link here. Be sure to read comments at the article.

From yesterday, June 25, 2024, the day the deal was announced:

Later, 3:18 p.m. CDT: Volkswagen thinks different. Just announced. VW takes a $1 billion stake in Rivian. For the moment, the cash infusion likely saves Rivian from an alternative outcome. I have no idea what VW gains from this deal. It's not as if Rivian is doing something VW can't do, and it's not as if Rivian has a global dealer network selling EVs. My hunch: VW needs Rivian to meet California EV standards due to go into effect in 2035 or thereabouts. Sort of like buying forest land to pay for carbon credits. Rivian is nowhere near making a profit, according to Phil Lebeau, June 25, 2024.

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Indoor Plant Update

Two new huge leaves starting to unfold -- one on each of two large-leaf plants.

Cramer's First Hour -- August 27, 2024

Locator: 48461CRAMER.

Cramer's first hour: a mix of fact, factoids, opinions from various sources -- often not cited -- while listening to Cramer's first hour on CNBC.  

A reminder: historically, the months of August and September are the worst months of the year for investors who hope to pay more for shares. 

Schwab: investor sentient -- investors are the most bullish they've been since Schwab first starting doing this survey. Survey: what is driving the strong sentiment? A wealth effect is building. Concentration risk is starting to spread out. Tech, health services, materials, utilities.

Personal investing: Sophia is now actively reminding me to "to" tax loss harvesting.

Netflix: most of Cramer's first hour was on Netflix, which hit a new high today. 

Ferrari: RACE surges to a new high. 

Remember this darling of Wall Street? Lululemon?

***********************************
Disclaimer
Briefly Reminder 

• I am inappropriately exuberant about the US economy and the US market.
• I am also inappropriately exuberant about all things Apple. 
• See disclaimer. This is not an investment site. 
• Disclaimer: this is not an investment site. Do not make any investment, financial, job, career, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here. All my posts are done quickly: there will be content and typographical errors. If anything on any of my posts is important to you, go to the source. If/when I find typographical / content errors, I will correct them. 
• Reminder: I am inappropriately exuberant about the US economy and the US market.
• I am also inappropriately exuberant about all things Apple. 
• And now, Nvidia, also. I am also inappropriately exuberant about all things Nvidia. 
  

******************
The Book Page

Christopher Isherwood, Inside Out, Katherine Bucknell, c. 2024.

 

A beautiful book.

 

729 pages of narrative.

76 pages of notes.

 
Index: 37 pages.

*************************
The Fine Arts Museum Page
Kimbell Art Museum, Ft Worth, Texas

The Battle of Pavia Tapestries. See also this post for more on these tapestries.

Enerplus Is Completing Its Gemstone Wells -- August 27, 2024

Locator: 48462B.

The Enerplus gemstone pad has been updated; the wells are tracked here.

One example:

• 39796, 272, Enerplus, Ruby 148-95-03B-10H, Eagle Nest, t2/24; cum 232K 6/24; a huge well; 32 stages; 132,200 bbls 5.55 million bbls; a relatively small frack;

Pool	Date	Days	BBLS Oil	Runs	BBLS Water	MCF Prod	MCF Sold	Vent/Flare
BAKKEN	6-2024	30	36845	36874	28872	57902	57464	411
BAKKEN	5-2024	31	48880	49164	22638	71470	68911	2529
BAKKEN	4-2024	25	48051	47882	16837	66131	65149	954
BAKKEN	3-2024	25	69737	69724	32441	89084	88807	223
BAKKEN	2-2024	10	28659	28125	21912	36749	35144	1588

Enerplus To Report Another Huge Well -- August27, 2024

Locator: 48460B.

Renewables: one can't have more solar / more wind energy without natural gas back-up. See RBN Energy below. 

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Back to the Bakken

Updated:

• the Enerplus fishing pad; 
• the Enerplus gemstone pad;
  

WTI: $76.67.

Wednesday, August 28, 2024: 69 for the month; 125 for the quarter, 449 for the year
40476, conf, CLR, Clover 4-10H,
40361, conf, Oasis, Maverick Federal 5602 13-12 3B,
36270, conf, BR, George-Lillibridge 4C MBH-ULW,

Tuesday, August 27, 2024: 66 for the month; 122 for the quarter, 446 for the year
40470, conf, Oasis, Maverick Federal 5602 13-12 2B,
39854, conf, Enerplus, Yak 148-95-4A-16H,
36269, conf, BR, George 4B TFH,
21543, conf, Grayson Mill, Knight 35-26 1-H,

Enerplus: with another huge well:

• 39854, conf, Enerplus, Yak 148-95-4A-16H, Eagle Nest,
  

Pool	Date	Days	BBLS Oil	Runs	BBLS Water	MCF Prod	MCF Sold	Vent/Flare
BAKKEN	6-2024	30	45284	45356	22208	64386	63922	387
BAKKEN	5-2024	31	45487	45192	20906	60744	56685	3988
BAKKEN	4-2024	13	19604	19671	8917	25173	25003	144
BAKKEN	3-2024	23	32210	32404	25080	37580	36747	784
BAKKEN	2-2024	3	669	0	573	1756	1217	535

RBN Energy: Virginia and Carolinas utilities' focus: gas-fired plants and solar. 

Utilities in Virginia, North Carolina and South Carolina, all anticipating rapid growth in electricity demand through the 2030s, have ambitious plans for renewables but are acknowledging that solar and offshore wind will need to be backed up by a lot more natural gas-fired generation.

Fortunately, the new Mountain Valley Pipeline (MVP) and planned expansions to it and the Transcontinental Gas Pipe Line (Transco) system are providing utilities in the three-state region with enhanced access to Marcellus/Utica-sourced natural gas, albeit at premium prices to gas users closer to that production. In today’s RBN blog, we continue our look at rising demand for electricity and gas in Virginia and the Carolinas with a review of what the largest utilities there are planning.