The Million Dollar Way (The Bakken Oil Blog): 04/25/21

Sunday, April 25, 2021

College Football -- April 25, 2021

How cool is this?

The FCS quarterfinals.

Both NDSU and UND are in the quarterfinals. Brackets here.

"Focus On Fracking" And The Newsom Announcement -- April 25, 2021

"Focus On Fracking" has been posted. Link here. The lede:

gasoline demand an at eight-month high; imports of distillates at a 26-week low ...

Early in the post:

US oil data from the US Energy Information Administration for the week ending April 16th indicated that despite a decrease in our oil imports, a big increase in crude oil that the EIA could not account for meant we had surplus oil to add to our stored commercial crude supplies for the sixth time in nine weeks and for the 14th time in the past thirty-nine weeks....

our imports of crude oil fell by an average of 448,000 barrels per day to an average of 5,405,000 barrels per day, after falling by an average of 411,000 barrels per day during the prior week, while our exports of crude oil fell by an average of 31,000 barrels per day to an average of 2,548,000 barrels per day during the week, which meant that our effective trade in oil worked out to a net import average of 2,857,000 barrels of per day during the week ending April 16th, 417,000 fewer barrels per day than the net of our imports minus our exports during the prior week...

over the same period, the production of crude oil from US wells was reportedly unchanged at 11,000,000 barrels per day, and hence our daily supply of oil from the net of our trade in oil and from well production appears to total an average of 13,857,000 barrels per day during this reporting week...

So, if there was a a big increase in crude oil that the EIA could not account for meant we had surplus oil to add to our stored commercial crude supplies for the sixth time in nine weeks and for the 14th time in the past thirty-nine weeks ... is the "Newsom announcement" even newsworthy?

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Infrastructure

We'll see the same thing if the Joe Biden plan is passed.

Link here.

The Newsom Announcement -- Sunday, April 25, 2021

Wow, talk about tectonic shifts.

After "the Newsom announcement," I thought it was time to get caught up with CRC.

California Resources Corp is the state's largest oil and gas production company.

It filed for bankruptcy protection on a Wednesday evening, mid-July, last year (2020). Just three months later, a federal judge approved the company's reorganization plan.

There are three major producers in the state of California:

CRC: the largest in production, apparently;
Chevron:
Aera: jointly owned by Shell and Exxon Mobil.

I don't know where it stands now, but this gives me an idea:

CRC, the Santa Clarita-based company, created in late 2014 as a spin-off from Occidental Petroleum, was saddled with debt from its inception after transferring billions of dollars to Occidental.

But it did well for part of its brief history, reporting average net daily production of 132,000 barrels of oil equivalent per day in 2018.

By this week, though, nearly half of its 17,500 wells sat idle, from the tidelands of Long Beach and Huntington Beach to the sprawling Elk Hills oil field.

I believe the total amount of oil produced by California is now less than 400,000 bbls crude oil daily (need to fact check).

2020: 144,349,000 bbls crude oil during the entire year
/365 = 395,476 bopd

Holy mackerel:

the state: 400,000 bopd

that equals DAPL out of North Dakota

CRC: largest oil producer? 132,000 boepd in 2018?

Oil production. I've always said Libya was irrelevant. California is irrelevant.

There was never going to be any fracking in California. Geologically it won't work; politically it won't work.

The Newsom announcement. Nothing more than a political statement (for obvious reasons).

Doesn't change a thing.

Except it sends a message to those working in the oil business in California. They're not welcome. At least by some.

Companies like CRC, Chevron, and Shell-ExxomMobil know where they stand.

But companies like SRE, one of my favorite, need to figure out where they stand.

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Production -- CRC

San Joaquin Basin: 72% of CRC's estimated proved reserves as of year-end 2020, including CRC's flagship Elk Hills Field near Bakersfield.

Los Angeles Basin: comprises 24% of CRC's estimated proved reserves as of year-end 2020, including the Wilmington Field in Long Beach.

Ventura Basin: approximately 2% of CRC's estimated proved reserves as of year-end 2020.

Sacramento Basin: approximately 2% of CRC's estimated proved reservs as of year-end 2020, where the company operates natural gas fields that supply the San Francisco Bay area.

By the way, aren't California cities starting to ban natural gas ovens?

A Glaring Omission -- April 25, 2021

A reader wrote to tell me that there is a glaring, glaring error in the photo below which was posted earlier.

Did The Decision To "Pause" The JNJ Vaccine Affect The Rollout? -- April 25, 2021

Data from the CDC.

Data as reported on Sunday for the previous 24 hours. Most of these vaccines would have been given on Saturday, I assume, depending how quickly, health departments can tally same-day data.

		Total Doses Administered	Number of People Receiving At Least One Dose	Fully Vaccinated	Delta: Difference in daily doses from previous day
Sunday	April 25, 2021	228,661,408	139,978,480	94,772,329	3,020,948
Sunday	April 18, 2021	209,406,814	131,247,546	84,263,408	3,534,901
Sunday	April 11, 2021	187,047,131	119,242,902	72,630,892	3,579,422
Sunday	April 4, 2021	165,053,746	106,214,924	61,416,536	3,365,324
Sunday	March 28, 2021	143,462,691	93,631,163	51,593,564	3,281,956
Sunday	March 14, 2021	107,060,274	69,784,210	37,459,269	1,356,773

To the best of my knowledge, there has not been any major event or holiday for the past six weekends, including this weekend, that would affect the turnout for Covid-19 vaccinations.

To the best of my knowledge, everything but one data point is different this week. The CDC "paused" the administration of the JNJ vaccine due to safety concerns.

In the chart above, I've hidden all weekdays for the past several weeks except for Sundays, which again, includes the Saturday vaccinations, perhaps the biggest day for vaccinations.

There was a huge jump from March 14, 2021, to March 28, 2021.

But then after that, look at the numbers. Again, these are only Sunday numbers (reflecting Saturday data, I assume).

There was a fairly linear increase from March 28, 2021, to April 18, 2021. The decision to pause the JNJ vaccine was made April 13, 2021, but by that time "all" the folks that would get their vaccination on April 18, 2021, had already made their appointments.

But then look at the Sunday "number" reported today: lowest Sunday number in five weeks.

It's probably "nothing."

Sure.

One has to remember, vaccinations are now "open" for everyone over the age of 16. It should have been a "blow-out" Sunday.

It wasn't.

Huge Week For Earnings -- April 25, 2021

Earnings calendar here.

Monday, April 26, 2021:

96 companies will report
31 stock splits

But Tuesday, Wednesday, and Thursday are going to be very very busy.

Monday, only one of interest:

TSLA: after market close; forecast, EPS: 79 cents.

Disclaimer: this is not an investment site. Do not make any investment, financial, job, career, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here.

Apple, Inc., Reports Wedesday, April 28, 2021

Updates

Later, 11:01 p.m. CDT: wow. I love this. About two hours after writing the note below, this is the top story over at The Wall Street Journal -- they must be reading the blog also. Link here.

Original Post

Before we turn to Apple, I could be wrong on my thinking on this, but it's my worldview that the global economy imploded at the end of the first quarter last year, near the end of March, 2020. If so, most of the first quarter's activity (2020) had already been determined. If that is correct, then this quarter, 1Q21, will be the "last" quarter that can really be compared to the BC (before Covid) economy. The next four calendar quarters (2Q21 through 1Q22) will be AC/AD quarters (after Covid/after Donald).

I think going forward (calendar 2Q21+) one will need to compare those calendar quarters with 2019's calendar quarters and not the 2020 calendar quarters.

Obviously the global pandemic is nowhere "done," but two of the leading global economies, China and the US, appear more than ready to press on.

It does not appear the EU will get its act together before the end of this calendar year, and India will have an effect on the energy markets but perhaps not so much on the non-energy sectors. It looks like the UK might do better than expected, but I'm certainly not betting that Japan will do so.

And, on top of all that, the US federal government is still looking forward to spending more money.

Saudi Arabia is relevant to this discussion only because of its impact on the energy market. And after seeing the February foreign exchange reserves for Saudi it reinforces my view that Saudi needs a) a strong global economy; and, b) $70-oil (or as the experts say, "7-handle oil"). And tonight? Oil is down across the board. So, with that, let's turn to Apple.

Oh, by the way, before I forget, this is a "great read." I posted this earlier but it's important enough to post again:

Now, for a historical perspective: the US economy in the 1920's, from the Economic History Association. Unless I missed it, the site does not provide a date, but based on the citations, it was probably written in 2005 or later.

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Apple, Inc. Earnings Projections

In a note like this with lots of numbers and lots of estimates and lots of analysts, there will be typographical and content errors. If this is important to you, go to the source.

Disclaimer: this is not an investment site. Do not make any investment, financial, job, career, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here.

Apple, Inc., reported after the market closes on Wednesday, April 28, 2021, for quarter ending March 31, 2021, Apple's 2Q21.

Over at "Earnings Central" this has been posted:

April 28, 2021: after market closes, AAPL will report. The Street, April 19, 2021:

earnings history;
for the quarter one year ago (the pandemic had not quite kicked in)

revenue: $58.3 billion
earnings: 64 cents

expectations by analysts for this quarter (2Q21)

1.32* 58.3 (2Q20) = $76.956 billion revenue -- estimate for 2Q21
1.53* 64 (2Q20) = $0.98 /share EPS-- estimate for 2Q21

expectations by analysts for this quarter (2Q21)

revenue: $76.710 billion
EPS: 99 cents; Yahoo!Finance: 98 cents;

estimates: Wall Street analyst estimates are through the roof: a y/y increase in revenues and earnings per share of 32% and 53%, respectively;

estimates: 2Q20 (link here):
estimates: for 2Q21
estimates (link here) (Zacks)

Apple's PC sales rising by an astounding 50% or more, over easy-2020 comps;
iPad will face an uphill battle; across the industry tablet sales are expected to fall double digits this quarter; Apple will do better than the average;
iPhone: will face easy comps this time; the comparable period in a a Covid-19 2020 which saw revenues land flat, the worst top-line performance since early 2019
total smartphone shipments are projected to grow by an impressive 50% with Apple claiming an unusual top vendor status over the past half year
so bottom line, looking for numbers at least better than, to keep the numbers easy to remember (rounded up):

EPS: $1.00/share
revenue: $77 billion

Comments:

if Apple, Inc., pulls off $1.00/share EPS (link here):

it will beat their best quarter (the first quarter) in 2018;
it will beat every quarter AAPL has ever reported except for their best quarter (the first quarter) of each year
it will literally "hit it out of the ballpark"

Free At Last -- And -- A PSA -- April 25, 2021

First, free at last:

And, now the public service announcement:

Japan Says It Will Still Host The 2020ne Olympics -- Good Luck WIth That -- April 25, 2021

Countries reporting to WHO first and second doses, or fully vaccinated.

Unless the virus burns itself out like the Spanish flu did, this isn't going to end any time soon. The Spanish flu -- no vaccine ever developed -- in fact, at the time, its cause was unknown -- burned itself out after four years. The Covid-19 pandemic just "celebrated" its first anniversary.

We track all of this here.

Link here:

Japan at less than 1%; a very compliant population and still less than 1%;
neither Australia or New Zealand is on the list?
the EU: less than 8% -- what?
Canada: less than 3%, on a percentage basis, even less than Mexico, at 4.4%
India: 1.6%

New Zealand, if it has not been vaccinating its citizens, its "entire" population has no immunity -- BBC.

You know, when you look at this graphic, we were fortunate to have someone in Washington who know how to get things done when we needed him most ... replay the tape with Biden/Fauci in charge and it most likely would not have happened.

"Significantly Worse" -- April 25, 2021

Re-posting Saudi Arabia's January, 2021, foreign exchange reserves post:

Wow, how many times has it been said: Saudi Arabia can't "make it' on $60 oil? More corroboration / more validation:

Link here
Foreign Foreign Exchange Reserves in Saudi Arabia decreased to 1687980 SAR Million in January from 1701209 SAR Million in December of 2020.

It doesn't matter how Saudi Arabia spins this story, this is really, really bad news.

Remember: January is a 31-day month; February, at least here in the USA, is a 28-day month.

All things being equal, February, 2021, should be significantly worse.
At the time I noted that January, 2021, was a 31-day month whereas February, 2021, was a 28-day month.

My last line in that January, 2021, data post:

All things being equal, February, 2021, should be significantly worse.

So, how did the Saudis do in February?

Link here.

Wow, it certainly appears "significantly worse." Look at February, 2021, compared to a month earlier. Ouch.

But not only that, it's the lowest in twelve months and this was at a time when the price of oil was starting to turn (?) and the global economy was improving .... except for that nasty cold spell in Texas, and most of the US for that matter.

This is incredible. I knew it was going to be bad (all things being equal) but I never expected it to be this bad.

From the linked source:

Foreign Exchange Reserves in Saudi Arabia decreased to 1654868 SAR Million in February from 1687980 SAR Million in January of 2021.

It appears this is the lowest in recent history for Saudi Arabia.

Two more links for the archives:

The Line, Saudi Arabia;

The Line (Arabic: ذا لاين‎) is a proposed smart city in Saudi Arabia in Neom, Tabuk that will have no cars, no streets, and no carbon emissions.

The city is part of Saudi Vision 2030 project, which Saudi Arabia claims will create 380,000 jobs and add $48 billion to the country's GDP.

Foreign investment in Saudi Arabia hits milestone: SR2 trillion ($0.5 trillion):

recent announcement: Saudi Arabia's infrastructure program: SR 27 trillion ($7 trillion) over the next ten years
The Line, as well as clean and renewable energy projects;

The Whiting Finsaas Wells In Hay Creek All Seem To Be Producing Nicely After A Period Of Sporadic Production -- April 25, 2021

Finally, it looks like the Whiting Finsaas Federal wells are back on track. I'm removing them from my list of wells that needed to be followed up.

Abbreviated history:

August 23, 2019: the Finsaas wells -- #26855; #26854; #27840; #27841; sporadic production across the wells, 5/20;

All four wells now seem to be producing nicely.

26855, t1/15; cum 162K 2/21;
26854, t12/14; cum 141K 2/21;
27840, t12/14; cum 165K 2/21;
27841, t2/14; cum 121K 2/21;

Two EOG Hawkeye Wells Updated -- April 25, 2021

I'm taking these two wells of my list of "things to follow up":

The EOG Hawkeye wells, #22486 and #33487.

Abbreviated history:

August 5, 2019: two EOG wells off line in Clarks Creek; #22487; #22486; no production jump in first full month back on status, 8/19; check another month or so; both came off line 9/19; one has returned to production; one remains off line; #22486 back on line 10/19 for 16 days; both back on line, 10/19; both off line 12/19; remain off line 5/20; coming back on line 7/20; 8/20: nice jump in production for #22487; nice jump in production for #22486;

Update as of today.

The wells:

22486, 2,421, EOG, Hawkeye 100-2501H, Clarks Creek, a Three Forks well, t9/12; cum 806K 2/21;
22487, 67 (no typo), EOG, Hawkeye 02-2501H, Clarks Creek, t12/13; cum 885K 2/21;

Recent production:

22486:

Pool	Date	Days	BBLS Oil	Runs	BBLS Water	MCF Prod	MCF Sold	Vent/Flare
BAKKEN	2-2021	28	2760	2749	2925	6367	6016	0
BAKKEN	1-2021	31	3578	3638	3699	6755	6358	0
BAKKEN	12-2020	31	3556	4654	3394	5658	5263	0
BAKKEN	11-2020	30	3426	3166	3471	5161	4778	0
BAKKEN	10-2020	31	4972	5668	4441	5445	5052	0
BAKKEN	9-2020	4	507	0	287	261	228	0
BAKKEN	8-2020	21	3110	2204	3029	257	0	0
BAKKEN	7-2020	2	150	0	152	17	0	0
BAKKEN	6-2020	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	5-2020	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	4-2020	0	0	203	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	3-2020	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	2-2020	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	1-2020	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	12-2019	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	11-2019	7	742	617	916	691	586	22
BAKKEN	10-2019	16	1846	1772	2369	197	0	0
BAKKEN	9-2019	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	8-2019	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	7-2019	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	6-2019	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	5-2019	0	0	34	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	4-2019	26	230	221	839	341	12	1
BAKKEN	3-2019	31	1209	1200	1525	2637	1734	517
BAKKEN	2-2019	27	1156	1152	2254	2427	1940	154

22487:

Pool	Date	Days	BBLS Oil	Runs	BBLS Water	MCF Prod	MCF Sold	Vent/Flare
BAKKEN	2-2021	28	3820	3798	3370	26222	22487	0
BAKKEN	1-2021	31	4323	4346	3674	30117	25900	0
BAKKEN	12-2020	31	4893	6406	4350	29337	25140	0
BAKKEN	11-2020	30	5088	4042	4473	28833	24755	0
BAKKEN	10-2020	31	6481	7115	5367	30874	26703	0
BAKKEN	9-2020	5	1112	2016	279	7219	6909	0
BAKKEN	8-2020	21	5083	3523	3350	24747	24024	0
BAKKEN	7-2020	2	480	0	182	4230	4182	0
BAKKEN	6-2020	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	5-2020	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	4-2020	0	0	223	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	3-2020	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	2-2020	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	1-2020	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	12-2019	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	11-2019	7	756	574	1187	6688	5615	214
BAKKEN	10-2019	20	2330	2297	3938	18209	14720	929
BAKKEN	9-2019	14	814	842	1287	6973	6334	338
BAKKEN	8-2019	30	3344	3279	5304	37977	34182	2714
BAKKEN	7-2019	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	6-2019	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	5-2019	29	4096	4273	5441	49131	36882	8532
BAKKEN	4-2019	30	4525	4617	5391	54991	48287	2733
BAKKEN	3-2019	25	3351	3246	4239	49303	35726	10651
BAKKEN	2-2019	28	4007	3880	7393	53974	46565	3709

The graphics:

A BR Chuckwagon Well Is Back Online After Being Inactive For Almost A Year -- April 25, 2021

The well:

32923, 181, BR, Chuckwagon 31-15MBH, Sand Creek, t12/18; cum 213K 2/21;