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Sunday, April 25, 2021

College Football -- April 25, 2021

How cool is this?

The FCS quarterfinals. 

Both NDSU and UND are in the quarterfinals. Brackets here.

at No comments:

"Focus On Fracking" And The Newsom Announcement -- April 25, 2021

"Focus On Fracking" has been posted. Link here. The lede:

  • gasoline demand an at eight-month high; imports of distillates at a 26-week low ...

Early in the post:

US oil data from the US Energy Information Administration for the week ending April 16th indicated that despite a decrease in our oil imports, a big increase in crude oil that the EIA could not account for meant we had surplus oil to add to our stored commercial crude supplies for the sixth time in nine weeks and for the 14th time in the past thirty-nine weeks.... 
our imports of crude oil fell by an average of 448,000 barrels per day to an average of 5,405,000 barrels per day, after falling by an average of 411,000 barrels per day during the prior week, while our exports of crude oil fell by an average of 31,000 barrels per day to an average of 2,548,000 barrels per day during the week, which meant that our effective trade in oil worked out to a net import average of 2,857,000 barrels of per day during the week ending April 16th, 417,000 fewer barrels per day than the net of our imports minus our exports during the prior week... 
over the same period, the production of crude oil from US wells was reportedly unchanged at 11,000,000 barrels per day, and hence our daily supply of oil from the net of our trade in oil and from well production appears to total an average of 13,857,000 barrels per day during this reporting week... 

So, if there was a a big increase in crude oil that the EIA could not account for meant we had surplus oil to add to our stored commercial crude supplies for the sixth time in nine weeks and for the 14th time in the past thirty-nine weeks ... is the "Newsom announcement" even newsworthy? 

************************************
Infrastructure

We'll see the same thing if the Joe Biden plan is passed.

Link here.

at No comments:

The Newsom Announcement -- Sunday, April 25, 2021

Wow, talk about tectonic shifts.

After "the Newsom announcement," I thought it was time to get caught up with CRC.

California Resources Corp is the state's largest oil and gas production company.

It filed for bankruptcy protection on a Wednesday evening, mid-July, last year (2020). Just three months later, a federal judge approved the company's reorganization plan. 

There are three major producers in the state of California:

  • CRC: the largest in production, apparently;
  • Chevron:
  • Aera: jointly owned by Shell and Exxon Mobil.

I don't know where it stands now, but this gives me an idea:

CRC, the Santa Clarita-based company, created in late 2014 as a spin-off from Occidental Petroleum, was saddled with debt from its inception after transferring billions of dollars to Occidental. 
But it did well for part of its brief history, reporting average net daily production of 132,000 barrels of oil equivalent per day in 2018. 
By this week, though, nearly half of its 17,500 wells sat idle, from the tidelands of Long Beach and Huntington Beach to the sprawling Elk Hills oil field.

I believe the total amount of oil produced by California is now less than 400,000 bbls crude oil daily (need to fact check). 

2020: 144,349,000 bbls crude oil during the entire year
/365 = 395,476 bopd

Holy mackerel:

  • the state: 400,000 bopd
    • that equals DAPL out of North Dakota
  • CRC: largest oil producer? 132,000 boepd in 2018?

Oil production. I've always said Libya was irrelevant. California is irrelevant.

There was never going to be any fracking in California. Geologically it won't work; politically it won't work. 

The Newsom announcement. Nothing more than a political statement (for obvious reasons).

Doesn't change a thing. 

Except it sends a message to those working in the oil business in California. They're not welcome. At least by some. 

Companies like CRC, Chevron, and Shell-ExxomMobil know where they stand.

But companies like SRE, one of my favorite, need to figure out where they stand.  

*********************************
Production -- CRC

San Joaquin Basin: 72% of CRC's estimated proved reserves as of  year-end 2020, including CRC's flagship Elk Hills Field near Bakersfield.

Los Angeles Basin: comprises 24% of CRC's estimated proved reserves as of year-end 2020, including the Wilmington Field in Long Beach.

Ventura Basin: approximately 2% of CRC's estimated proved reserves as of year-end 2020.

Sacramento Basin: approximately 2% of CRC's estimated proved reservs as of  year-end 2020, where the company operates natural gas fields that supply the San Francisco Bay area. 

By the way, aren't California cities starting to ban natural gas ovens?

at No comments:

A Glaring Omission -- April 25, 2021

A reader wrote to tell me that there is a glaring, glaring error in the photo below which was posted earlier. 

at No comments:

Did The Decision To "Pause" The JNJ Vaccine Affect The Rollout? -- April 25, 2021

Data from the CDC.

Data as reported on Sunday for the previous 24 hours. Most of these vaccines would have been given on Saturday, I assume, depending how quickly, health departments can tally same-day data.


Total Doses Administered

Number of People Receiving At Least One Dose

Fully Vaccinated

Delta: Difference in daily doses from previous day

Sunday

April 25, 2021

228,661,408

139,978,480

94,772,329

3,020,948

Sunday

April 18, 2021

209,406,814

131,247,546

84,263,408

3,534,901

Sunday

April 11, 2021

187,047,131

119,242,902

72,630,892

3,579,422

Sunday

April 4, 2021

165,053,746

106,214,924

61,416,536

3,365,324

Sunday

March 28, 2021

143,462,691

93,631,163

51,593,564

3,281,956

Sunday

March 14, 2021

107,060,274

69,784,210

37,459,269

1,356,773

To the best of my knowledge, there has not been any major event or holiday for the past six weekends, including this weekend, that would affect the turnout for Covid-19 vaccinations.

To the best of my knowledge, everything but one data point is different this week. The CDC "paused" the administration of the JNJ vaccine due to safety concerns. 

In the chart above, I've hidden all weekdays for the past several weeks except for Sundays, which again, includes the Saturday vaccinations, perhaps the biggest day for vaccinations.

There was a huge jump from March 14, 2021, to March 28, 2021.

But then after that, look at the numbers. Again, these are only Sunday numbers (reflecting Saturday data, I assume).

There was a fairly linear increase from March 28, 2021, to April 18, 2021. The decision to pause the JNJ vaccine was made April 13, 2021, but by that time "all" the folks that would get their vaccination on April 18, 2021, had already made their appointments. 

But then look at the Sunday "number" reported today: lowest Sunday number in five weeks. 

It's probably "nothing." 

Sure. 

One has to remember, vaccinations are now "open" for everyone over the age of 16. It should have been a "blow-out" Sunday.  

It wasn't.

at No comments:

Huge Week For Earnings -- April 25, 2021

Earnings calendar here.

Monday, April 26, 2021:

  • 96 companies will report
  • 31 stock splits

But Tuesday, Wednesday, and Thursday are going to be very very busy. 

Monday, only one of interest:

  • TSLA: after market close; forecast, EPS: 79 cents.

Disclaimer: this is not an investment site.  Do not make any investment, financial, job, career, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here.

at No comments:

Apple, Inc., Reports Wedesday, April 28, 2021

Updates

Later, 11:01 p.m. CDT: wow. I love this. About two hours after writing the note below, this is the top story over at The Wall Street Journal -- they must be reading the blog also. Link here.  


Original Post

Before we turn to Apple, I could be wrong on my thinking on this, but it's my worldview that the global economy imploded at the end of the first quarter last year, near the end of March, 2020. If so, most of the first quarter's activity (2020) had already been determined. If that is correct, then this quarter, 1Q21, will be the "last" quarter that can really be compared to the BC (before Covid) economy. The next four calendar quarters (2Q21 through 1Q22) will be AC/AD quarters (after Covid/after Donald).

I think going forward (calendar 2Q21+) one will need to compare those calendar quarters with 2019's calendar quarters and not the 2020 calendar quarters.  

Obviously the global pandemic is nowhere "done," but two of the leading global economies, China and the US, appear more than ready to press on.

It does not appear the EU will get its act together before the end of this calendar year, and India will have an effect on the energy markets but perhaps not so much on the non-energy sectors. It looks like the UK might do better than expected, but I'm certainly not betting that Japan will do so.

And, on top of all that, the US federal government is still looking forward to spending more money.

Saudi Arabia is relevant to this discussion only because of its impact on the energy market. And after seeing the February foreign exchange reserves for Saudi it reinforces my view that Saudi needs a) a strong global economy; and, b) $70-oil (or as the experts say, "7-handle oil"). And tonight? Oil is down across the board. So, with that, let's turn to Apple.

Oh, by the way, before I forget, this is a "great read." I posted this earlier but it's important enough to post again:

Now, for a historical perspective: the US economy in the 1920's, from the Economic History Association. Unless I missed it, the site does not provide a date, but based on the citations, it was probably written in 2005 or later.

 *******************************
Apple, Inc. Earnings Projections

In a note like this with lots of numbers and lots of estimates and lots of analysts, there will be typographical and content errors. If this is important to you, go to the source.

Disclaimer: this is not an investment site.  Do not make any investment, financial, job, career, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here.

Apple, Inc., reported after the market closes on Wednesday, April 28, 2021, for quarter ending March 31, 2021, Apple's 2Q21.

Over at "Earnings Central" this has been posted:

April 28, 2021: after market closes, AAPL will report. The Street, April 19, 2021:

  • earnings history;
  • for the quarter one year ago (the pandemic had not quite kicked in)
    • revenue: $58.3 billion
    • earnings: 64 cents
  • expectations by analysts for this quarter (2Q21)
    • 1.32* 58.3 (2Q20) = $76.956 billion revenue -- estimate for 2Q21
    • 1.53* 64 (2Q20) = $0.98 /share EPS-- estimate for 2Q21
  • expectations by analysts for this quarter (2Q21)
    •  revenue: $76.710 billion
    • EPS: 99 cents; Yahoo!Finance: 98 cents;
  • estimates: Wall Street analyst estimates are through the roof: a y/y increase in revenues and earnings per share of 32% and 53%, respectively; 
  • Apple's PC sales rising by an astounding 50% or more, over easy-2020 comps;
  • iPad will face an uphill battle; across the industry tablet sales are expected to fall double digits this quarter; Apple will do better than the average;
  • iPhone: will face easy comps this time; the comparable period in a a Covid-19 2020 which saw revenues land flat, the worst top-line performance since early 2019
  • total smartphone shipments are projected to grow by an impressive 50% with Apple claiming an unusual top vendor status over the past half year
  • so bottom line, looking for numbers at least better than, to keep the numbers easy to remember (rounded up):
    • EPS: $1.00/share
    • revenue: $77 billion

Comments:

  • if Apple, Inc., pulls off $1.00/share EPS (link here):
    • it will beat their best quarter (the first quarter) in 2018;
    • it will beat every quarter AAPL has ever reported except for their best quarter (the first quarter) of each year
    • it will literally "hit it out of the ballpark"

at No comments:

Free At Last -- And -- A PSA -- April 25, 2021

First, free at last: 

And, now the public service announcement:

at No comments:

Japan Says It Will Still Host The 2020ne Olympics -- Good Luck WIth That -- April 25, 2021

Countries reporting to WHO first and second doses, or fully vaccinated.

Unless the virus burns itself out like the Spanish flu did, this isn't going to end any time soon. The Spanish flu -- no vaccine ever developed -- in fact, at the time, its cause was unknown -- burned itself out after four years. The Covid-19 pandemic just "celebrated" its first anniversary.  

We track all of this here.

Link here:

  • Japan at less than 1%; a very compliant population and still less than 1%;
  • neither Australia or New Zealand is on the list?
  • the EU: less than 8% -- what?
  • Canada: less than 3%, on a percentage basis, even less than Mexico, at 4.4%
  • India: 1.6%

New Zealand, if it has not been vaccinating its citizens, its "entire" population has no immunity -- BBC.

You know, when you look at this graphic, we were fortunate to have someone in Washington who know how to get things done when we needed him most ... replay the tape with Biden/Fauci in charge and it most likely would not have happened. 

at 4 comments:

"Significantly Worse" -- April 25, 2021

Re-posting Saudi Arabia's January, 2021, foreign exchange reserves post:

Wow, how many times has it been said: Saudi Arabia can't "make it' on $60 oil? More corroboration / more validation:

Link here

Foreign Foreign Exchange Reserves in Saudi Arabia decreased to 1687980 SAR Million in January from 1701209 SAR Million in December of 2020.


It doesn't matter how Saudi Arabia spins this story, this is really, really bad news. 

Remember: January is a 31-day month; February, at least here in the USA, is a 28-day month.

All things being equal, February, 2021, should be significantly worse.  

At the time I noted that January, 2021, was a 31-day month whereas February, 2021, was a 28-day month.

My last line in that January, 2021, data post:

All things being equal, February, 2021, should be significantly worse. 

So, how did the Saudis do in February?

Link here.

Wow, it certainly appears "significantly worse."  Look at February, 2021, compared to a month earlier. Ouch.

But not only that, it's the lowest in twelve months and this was at a time when the price of oil was starting to turn (?) and the global economy was improving .... except for that nasty cold spell in Texas, and most of the US for that matter.

This is incredible. I knew it was going to be bad (all things being equal) but I never expected it to be this bad. 

From the linked source:
Foreign Exchange Reserves in Saudi Arabia decreased to 1654868 SAR Million in February from 1687980 SAR Million in January of 2021.

It appears this is the lowest in recent history for Saudi Arabia.  


Two more links for the archives:

The Line, Saudi Arabia;

The Line (Arabic: ذا لاين‎) is a proposed smart city in Saudi Arabia in Neom, Tabuk that will have no cars, no streets, and no carbon emissions.

The city is part of Saudi Vision 2030 project, which Saudi Arabia claims will create 380,000 jobs and add $48 billion to the country's GDP.

Foreign investment in Saudi Arabia hits milestone: SR2 trillion ($0.5 trillion):
  • recent announcement: Saudi Arabia's infrastructure program: SR 27 trillion ($7 trillion) over the next ten years
  • The Line, as well as clean and renewable energy projects;
at No comments:

The Whiting Finsaas Wells In Hay Creek All Seem To Be Producing Nicely After A Period Of Sporadic Production -- April 25, 2021

Finally, it looks like the Whiting Finsaas Federal wells are back on track. I'm removing them from my list of wells that needed to be followed up.

Abbreviated history:

  • August 23, 2019: the Finsaas wells -- #26855; #26854; #27840; #27841; sporadic production across the wells, 5/20;

All four wells now seem to be producing nicely. 

  • 26855, t1/15; cum 162K 2/21; 
  • 26854, t12/14; cum 141K 2/21; 
  • 27840, t12/14; cum 165K 2/21; 
  • 27841, t2/14; cum 121K 2/21;
at No comments:

Two EOG Hawkeye Wells Updated -- April 25, 2021

I'm taking these two wells of my list of "things to follow up": 

  • The EOG Hawkeye wells, #22486 and #33487.

Abbreviated history:

August 5, 2019: two EOG wells off line in Clarks Creek; #22487; #22486; no production jump in first full month back on status, 8/19; check another month or so; both came off line 9/19; one has returned to production; one remains off line; #22486 back on line 10/19 for 16 days; both back on line, 10/19; both off line 12/19; remain off line 5/20; coming back on line 7/20; 8/20: nice jump in production for #22487; nice jump in production for #22486;

Update as of today.

The wells:

  • 22486, 2,421, EOG, Hawkeye 100-2501H, Clarks Creek, a Three Forks well, t9/12; cum 806K 2/21;
  • 22487, 67 (no typo), EOG, Hawkeye 02-2501H, Clarks Creek, t12/13; cum 885K 2/21;

Recent production:

22486:

PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN2-202128276027492925636760160
BAKKEN1-202131357836383699675563580
BAKKEN12-202031355646543394565852630
BAKKEN11-202030342631663471516147780
BAKKEN10-202031497256684441544550520
BAKKEN9-2020450702872612280
BAKKEN8-20202131102204302925700
BAKKEN7-2020215001521700
BAKKEN6-20200000000
BAKKEN5-20200000000
BAKKEN4-2020002030000
BAKKEN3-20200000000
BAKKEN2-20200000000
BAKKEN1-20200000000
BAKKEN12-20190000000
BAKKEN11-2019774261791669158622
BAKKEN10-20191618461772236919700
BAKKEN9-20190000000
BAKKEN8-20190000000
BAKKEN7-20190000000
BAKKEN6-20190000000
BAKKEN5-201900340000
BAKKEN4-201926230221839341121
BAKKEN3-20193112091200152526371734517
BAKKEN2-20192711561152225424271940154

22487:

PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN2-20212838203798337026222224870
BAKKEN1-20213143234346367430117259000
BAKKEN12-20203148936406435029337251400
BAKKEN11-20203050884042447328833247550
BAKKEN10-20203164817115536730874267030
BAKKEN9-2020511122016279721969090
BAKKEN8-20202150833523335024747240240
BAKKEN7-202024800182423041820
BAKKEN6-20200000000
BAKKEN5-20200000000
BAKKEN4-2020002230000
BAKKEN3-20200000000
BAKKEN2-20200000000
BAKKEN1-20200000000
BAKKEN12-20190000000
BAKKEN11-20197756574118766885615214
BAKKEN10-2019202330229739381820914720929
BAKKEN9-201914814842128769736334338
BAKKEN8-20193033443279530437977341822714
BAKKEN7-20190000000
BAKKEN6-20190000000
BAKKEN5-20192940964273544149131368828532
BAKKEN4-20193045254617539154991482872733
BAKKEN3-201925335132464239493033572610651
BAKKEN2-20192840073880739353974465653709

The graphics:

at No comments:

A BR Chuckwagon Well Is Back Online After Being Inactive For Almost A Year -- April 25, 2021

The well:

  • 32923, 181, BR, Chuckwagon 31-15MBH, Sand Creek, t12/18; cum 213K 2/21;

 Recent production:

PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN2-202128636664461695521289211200
BAKKEN1-202131736872221809927823276400
BAKKEN12-2020715531537212810222101540
BAKKEN11-20201000000
BAKKEN10-20200000000
BAKKEN9-20200000000
BAKKEN8-20200000000
BAKKEN7-20200000000
BAKKEN6-20200000000
BAKKEN5-20200000000
BAKKEN4-202020600000
BAKKEN3-20201822552326335114887144710
BAKKEN2-2020294354435674513174130759377
BAKKEN1-20203166416673107194744546544243
BAKKEN12-20193179197890938150796500680
BAKKEN11-20193079957934672340552357514105
BAKKEN10-20192148204822458722933211701227
BAKKEN9-2019301015310174101964497643737503
BAKKEN8-201931893189921125744149431100

Neighboring wells recently fracked:

  • 33024, BR, Renegade 24-10 TFH:
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN2-20212810405105431931135602340881265
BAKKEN1-2021311238912250210964082739958720
BAKKEN12-2020311256012637182993606435402465
BAKKEN11-2020302067120908535854506144192724
BAKKEN10-2020312107720630420286663566062155
BAKKEN9-202030000000
  • 33023, BR, Renegade 24-10 MBH:
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN2-20212810405105431931135602340881265
BAKKEN1-2021311238912250210964082739958720
BAKKEN12-2020311256012637182993606435402465
BAKKEN11-2020302067120908535854506144192724
BAKKEN10-2020312107720630420286663566062155
BAKKEN9-202030000000
  • 33022, BR, Chuckwagon 21-15 TFH:
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN2-20212872057332159793252231885510
BAKKEN1-202131100399938195363900138291512
BAKKEN12-2020311121811217205333803237566288
BAKKEN11-202024116271151502315522307766
BAKKEN10-202031282500375622464155
BAKKEN9-202030981495902100934346340810
BAKKEN8-202031000000
  • 36301, BR, Renegade 34-15TFH-R:
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN2-2021289973100402139728572249543291
BAKKEN1-20213189028907262263055230107116
BAKKEN12-2020311887418733488515345652224779
BAKKEN11-202015584759331600220010198400
BAKKEN10-20203168416925251032572625410155
BAKKEN9-2020301007098413678135822355460
BAKKEN8-202031000000
  • 32924, dry/PA, BR, Renegade 34-15TFH;
  • 32925, 13 (no error), BR, Renegade 34-10MBH, Sand Creek, t12/18; cum 216K 22;
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN2-2021286116620512348273952692852
BAKKEN1-202131767475921355832023315530
BAKKEN12-20203181528117118893000029202390
BAKKEN11-2020255017496676091834317550482
BAKKEN10-20200000000
BAKKEN9-2020001990000
BAKKEN8-20202585478348193162433723409746
BAKKEN7-20200000000
BAKKEN6-20200000000
BAKKEN5-20200000000
BAKKEN4-202020930000
BAKKEN3-20202335183575539118988185070
BAKKEN2-2020294991496690332940128393456
BAKKEN1-202031627362801073036862349181372
BAKKEN12-201931631162871066237971372760
BAKKEN11-201930634363111224435054324001931
  • 32926, 560, BR, Chuckwagon 31-15TFH, Sand Creek, t12/18; cum 127K 2/21;
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN2-2021239451072280938583073272
BAKKEN1-202131632162491682522067205511002
BAKKEN12-202031633562731312127417248932114
BAKKEN11-20202492487621414440640
BAKKEN10-20200000000
BAKKEN9-202000110000
BAKKEN8-20201459448696241123920
BAKKEN7-20200000000
BAKKEN6-20200000000
BAKKEN5-20200000000
BAKKEN4-202030800000
BAKKEN3-20201930313011485719235187820
BAKKEN2-202029199219464716138431326236
BAKKEN1-2020316886871234738068920
BAKKEN12-2019316036191124768070660
BAKKEN11-2019301682175251461157710297555
BAKKEN10-2019316384633198002370922816157
BAKKEN9-201930605060911646037119362370
at No comments: