Sunday, March 31, 2024

A Re-Look At The F-35A Lightning II -- March 31, 2024

Locator: 46884USAF.

April 2, 2024: in this post, I argued that the military-industrial complex is huge for the US economy.

  • exhibit A: USN submarines;
  • exhibit B: USAF F-35A Lightning II (see below)

Updates

April 2, 2024: I would argue the F-35A Lightning II fighters are incredibly more challenging to build than any passenger plane Boeing is building.

April 2, 2024: Quora thread

April 2, 2024, from January 10, 2024, from National Interest:


Link here.

Original Post

The recent announcement by the Biden administration sell 25 F-35A fighters to Israel prompted a re-look at this program.

The USAF fact sheet: link here.

The wiki fact sheet: link here.

I think most folks consider the F-35A simply a "better" F-15. 

But look at this. The F-15 was not "associated" with close air support (CAS). That was the role of the F-16. 

This is the big takeaway for me with regard to the F-35A: the F-35A a) an air superiority fighter; and, b) tasked with close air support. I'm not sure if we ever had that before, except for the F-4 in Vietnam -- air superiority and close support, but its deficiencies in air superiority were embarrassing and ultimately led to a replacement, the F-15.

Okay, so the USAF gains one aircraft that can do all three: missiles, bombs, and guns; and both the air-to-air mission and the air-to-ground missions.

A first derivative of that double mission: it simplifies organization and training, particularly for ground support (mechanics, replacement parts). The US can replace the F-15, the F-16, and the A-10 with the F-35.

Air-to-ground missiles?

But this is a much, much bigger first derivative:

NATO countries, except the US, are financially stressed and pressed and absolutely cannot afford to develop their own 21st century joint strike force aircraft. Their only option? Yup. Buy from the US -- as Israel just did.

From the USAF Fact Sheet:

Goldilocks Economy; Market Must Have Liked February's Numbers -- End Of 1Q24 -- March 21, 2024

Locator: 46883ECON.

Updates

Later, 11:58 p.m. CDT: trending toward $84-WTI.

Later, 10:29 p.m. CDT, only a few hours after posting my note below -- the original note -- Barron's posted this:

Stocks were poised to rise in Monday trading as investors prepare for a full week of data on jobs.

At 6:15 p.m. Eastern time on Sunday, Dow Jones Industrial Average futures were up 0.2%, while S&P 500 futures were up 0.3%, and Nasdaq futures were up 0.5%.

On Friday, the Bureau of Labor Statistics will publish the March employment report. Economists expect growth of 180,000 nonfarm payrolls compared with a 275,000 gain in February. Before that, the Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey on Tuesday is expected to show 8.7 million job openings on the last business day of February, down by 163,000.

Original Post

1. Big picture: demographics. Link here.

2. My favorite chart, link here. $6 trillion? $7 trillion?

3. US economy on fire:

  • relative to history
  • relative to rest of global economies

4. US energy: not one other nation in the world comes close

  • crude oil: the US has produced more crude oil than any other country at any time for the past six consecutive YEARS, link here.
  • natural gas: US #1 exporter (we may drop to #2 or #3 if Biden administration slows exports; however, SecDOE says "permit pause will be in rear-view mirror by this time next year")
  • renewable energy
  • electric grid: will have to expand exponentially to keep up with data center buildout (ND will be huge beneficiary)

5. Technology: not one other nation in the world comes close, and the Biden administration is showering the industry with incentives: CHIPS Act (and now there is talk of more — Intel says more is needed)

6. Agriculture: America remains the breadbasket of the world and production will increase significantly with DE and AI.

7. Jobs: "everybody" has a job, and wages are going up (folks debate this, but wages certainly are not going down).

  • unemployment rates at historic lows

8. Consumer spending: February's numbers "blew everyone away" when announced two days ago on CNBC, March 29, 2024. Almost twice inflation rate. 

9. GDP, actual and estimate:

  • GDPNow, estimate 1Q24: 2.3%
  • Commerce Dept:
    • 4Q23, third estimate: 3.4% -- despite massive efforts by Fed to slow the economy
    • 3Q23: actual, 4.9%

10. Investors: no risk, no thinking, no expertise

  • simply put money in MMFs and earn 5%; what could be easier?
    • even a cave man could do it
    • a spouse with $1 million can earn $4,000 / month
    • and most of that interest simply goes back into the MMFs
  • and, oh by the way, the Biden administration increased social security benefits for CY2024
    • and many of those spouses with high net worth are seniors collecting social security

11. Southern surge: a $7 trillion gift. 

12. Military hardware.

  • US Navy, submarines: we'll do the numbers later, but watching NCAA now.
  • US Air Force, fighters and drones: we'll do the numbers later, but watching NCAA now.

13. Presidential election year

14. Inflation: and the number one topic on CNBC tomorrow will be ... drum roll ... inflation.

  • production inflation? Nope -- most sectors experiencing disinflationary environment (link here)
    • exhibit A: price of EVs plummeting
    • risk: deflation for some sectors
  • services inflation? still on an upward trajectory but slowing

 ****************************
Sunday Night Numbers

WTI: down slightly; fluctuating; trading now at $83.10.

  • the sweet spot: $60 - $80
  • $83? Oil bulls will take it

Markets:

Two Slawson Skybolt / Lightning Wells Trending Toward 600K Bbls Crude Oil Cumulative -- March 31, 2024

Locator: 46882SKYBOLT.

This page will not be updated.

The Slawson Skybolt / Lightning wells are tracked here

Let's look at some cherry-picked production for two of these wells.

  • 30412, 2,684, Slawson, Lightning Federal 6-24-13TFH, Big Bend, t4/16; cum 477K 3/20; cum 582K 1/24;
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN1-202431359138183504531651610
BAKKEN12-2023283025291934213498333719
BAKKEN11-20231819191935161918141251473
BAKKEN10-2023262941313832133729354456
BAKKEN9-20232632383265270734303141157
BAKKEN8-202331379039003351451143560
BAKKEN7-2023313938362836724246406130
BAKKEN6-20233039373973386238323030652
BAKKEN5-20233137824131432236412762726
BAKKEN4-20232725532294619323691955279
BAKKEN3-20230000000
BAKKEN2-2023131757166424721620153124
BAKKEN1-2023314029414963833965377040
BAKKEN12-202231432244355849401626751186
BAKKEN11-20223038003687790033946942550
BAKKEN10-202231414743799813376014152190
BAKKEN9-20223039514138811237453390205
BAKKEN8-20223131632962761731982096947
BAKKEN7-202275050175854742389
BAKKEN6-20220000000
BAKKEN5-20220000000
BAKKEN4-20222017191775128719741506368
BAKKEN3-2022292789325320683243306730
  • 30414 1,622, Slawson, Lightning Federal 7-24-13TFH, Big Bend, t4/16; cum 457K 3/20; cum 553K 1/24;
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN1-2024243160336548843286310462
BAKKEN12-2023273761357367573827363754
BAKKEN11-202330461846689256522550750
BAKKEN10-2023315248549011112585657001
BAKKEN9-202330509448731625349204533237
BAKKEN8-20230000000
BAKKEN7-20231258512651451
BAKKEN6-202329521554471067252274229851
BAKKEN5-202331515853691076247454433158
BAKKEN4-2023101442954554112151008157
BAKKEN3-20231500044039
BAKKEN2-2023171220500
BAKKEN1-2023111864211641761714164910
BAKKEN12-202230573057701542048773845882
BAKKEN11-2022264414417915808366817211815
BAKKEN10-2022274662464019885398318022044
BAKKEN9-202223277125532483924762118243
BAKKEN8-202245885582049442432
BAKKEN7-20220000000
BAKKEN6-202211110500
BAKKEN5-20223036613658470331012761190
BAKKEN4-20223034773517523330682451469
BAKKEN3-20223135723871627629852628202
BAKKEN2-20222831342948489825992345114

Updates -- March 31, 2024

Locator: 46881B.

The Zavanna Simmental wells east of Williston have been updated

The Zavanna Shepherd wells in Stony Creeek have been updated.

CLR's Sakakawea Federal wells have been updated.

Two Slawson Skybolt / Lightning wells updated here

The Enerplus "Tailor Pad" and the "Quilt Pad" have been updated.

*************************
Beach Boys

Link here.

Sports -- Easter -- 2024

Locator: 46880SPORTS.

Men's NCAA: two regional finals.

  • #1 Purdue holds off #2 Tennessee
  • huge upset; #11 UNC soundly defeats #4 Duke

Women's NCAA: two regional finals.

NASCAR. 6:00 p.m. tonight.

PGA. This is most interesting. Maybe more on this later.

It just doesn't quit!

PGA: later. Link here. Golf fans don't care at all for LIV. I hope the PGA tells the LIV to pound sand.

*************************
Inflation Watch

Detergent.

  • The bar: 13 cents / load and I've seen it / bought it at 9 cents / load. My hunch: 9 cents / load hits an all-time record.

Today, at Tom Thumb: 40 cents load -- and advertised as "on sale." LOL.

Inflation Watch -- Apple's Air Tags -- 25% Off -- March 31, 2024

Locator: 46878APPLE.

Without question, with inflation the big story this past year, I have made four huge changes:

  • we have really, really cut back on dining out;
  • I watch sales at our local grocers like a hawk, as they say; I may or may not save much money -- our grocery bill is the least of our concerns -- but I find it fascinating to see how prices change -- on a percentage basis, significantly -- from week to week -- and I've learned some great price points
  • when things go on sale, I pounce -- particularly coffee (K-cups), detergent, paper products (Bounty, e.g.)
  • non-perishable household products? Have almost completely replaced Target with Amazon (particularly toiletries)

Apple's Air Tags on sale, link here. These Air Tags go on sale every so often and at the same price price, around $75 vs $100. I grab them at $75. Incredibly useful. Put them in your dog's collar, but especially put them in your cat's collar. Put them in the shoe of your toddlers. Shoot, put one in my shoe, LOL. In Toronto, Ontario, everyone should be putting one in their car(s).

By the way, another great example of Apple's price points, which we've talked about before.

****************
Amazon Is Amazing 

I ordered a hard-to-find item from Amazon several days ago. Yesterday, I got a note from Amazon updating the expected delivery date -- not sooner than April 1 - 2, 2024.

This morning, I got a note from Amazon: that item is now out for delivery and it will be arriving today, Easter Sunday. Amazing. 

I have several items on order; they could have arrived today but I asked Amazon to delay delivery until Monday. As a rule, I don't like Sunday deliveries in a gated community. And, Amazon cuts the price every so slightly if I delay deliveries by one or two days so they can "bundle" items, saving shipping costs. 

Link here.

**********************
The Book Page

I continue to read The Blue Machine: How The Ocean Works, Helen Czerski, c. 2023.

I finished Max Boot's The Road Not Taken. Incredible. Brought back so many memories. 

I'll probably go back and re-read some sections of Gavin Menzies' books. 

The Annotated Emerson: Ralph Waldo Emerson, edited by David Mikics, c. 2012, arrived earlier this week; yet to get started on this one. Maybe now, while watching the PGA in Houston.

Billy Wilder: born, 1906; died, 2002. Almost exactly the 20th century. Alfred Hitchcock, almost an exact contemporary, born the same year as my maternal grandmother, 1899; died, 1980 -- at age of 80.

My maternal grandmother? Died at age of 90 in 1990. We were stationed in Germany at the time. When we got the note that she had been admitted to the hospital and not expected to live more than another 24 - 48 hours, the USAF flew me and our younger daughter Laura back to the states so Laura could see her great-grandmother at least once. We made it and less than twelve hours later, Reka passed away.

MDU Rates Go Up -- No April Fool's Joke -- Blame Nvidia -- March 31, 2024

Locator: 46877GRID.

Link here, paywall. This is going to be a recurring story for North Dakota and the nation as a whole. All of a sudden EVs looking even less desirable.

Link here

 
Back to that MDU story.

One Nvidia chips uses as much electricity as Tioga, ND.  Needs to be fact checked.

Google "data centers" electricity electric grid MDU "North Dakota"

 *******************************
Easter Walk

Initial Production Data For Wells Coming Off Confidential List This Next Week -- March 31, 2024

Locator: 46876B.

The wells:

  • 38011, conf, BR, CCU Plymouth 34-29MBH, Corral Creek, npd,
  • 37484, conf, SOGC, Saetz Federal 5-36H, Lone Butte, npd,
  • 35076, conf, Oasis, Slagle 5101 43-12 6B, Camp,
DateOil RunsMCF Sold
1-20242867334456
12-20233180140379
11-20232658832138
10-20231737918559
  • 35075, conf, Oasis, Slagle 5101 43-12 5B, Camp,
DateOil RunsMCF Sold
1-20242300325997
12-20232510830482
11-20233046136314
10-20232020921806
  • 20860, conf, Petro-Hunt, Hartman 144-97-5A-8-1HR, Little Knife, no new production data,
  • 39782, conf, CLR, Thorvald 6-6H, Rattlesnake Butte, npd,
  • 37471, conf, SOGC, Saetz Federal 4-36H, Lone Butte, npd,
  • 39783, conf, CLR, Thorvald 7-6H1, Rattlesnake Point,
  • 38012, conf, BR, CCU Plymouth 44-29 TFH, Corral Creek, npd,
  • 39784, conf, CLR, Thorvald 8-6HSL, Cedar Coulee, npd,
  • 38973, conf, SOGC, Harris Federal 3-31H, Lone Butte, npd,
  • 37571, conf, CLR, Cuskelly 6-7H, Rattlesnake Point, npd,
  • 36083, conf, Hess, BB-Federal A-LS-151-95-1615H-10, Blue Buttes,
DateOil RunsMCF Sold
1-20243253884579
12-20234091570994
11-20233484956977
10-20234295851237
  • 36082, conf, Hess, BB-Federal A-LS-151-95-1615H-11, Blue Buttes,
DateOil RunsMCF Sold
1-20242511962164
12-20233122861362
11-20232962253703
10-20233615167614
  • 38972, conf, SOGC, Harris Federal 3-31H, Lone Butte, npd,
  • 39402, conf, Hess, TI-Ives-157-94-0601H-2, Tioga
DateOil RunsMCF Sold
1-20241259314625
12-20231285014333
11-2023973317876
10-202361156360

Wells Coming Off Confidential List This Next Week -- March 31, 2024

Locator: 46875B.

Wednesday, April 10, 2024: 17 for the month; 17 for the quarter, 216 for the year
38011, conf, BR, CCU Plymouth 34-29MBH,
37484, conf, SOGC, Saetz Federal 5-36H,
35076, conf, Oasis, Slagle 5101 43-12 6B,
35075, conf, Oasis, Slagle 5101 43-12 5B,
20860, conf, Petro-Hunt, Hartman 144-97-5A-8-1HR,

Tuesday, April 9, 2024: 12 for the month; 12 for the quarter, 211 for the year
39782, conf, CLR, Thorvald 6-6H,
37471, conf, SOGC, Saetz Federal 4-36H,

Monday, April 8, 2024:10 for the month; 10 for the quarter, 209 for the year
39783, conf, CLR, Thorvald 7-6H1,
38012, conf, BR, CCU Plymouth 44-29 TFH,

Sunday, April 7, 2024: 8 for the month; 8 for the quarter, 207 for the year
39874, conf, CLR, Thorvald 8-6HSL,

Saturday, April 6, 2024: 7 for the month; 7 for the quarter, 206 for the year
38973, conf, SOGC, Harris Federal 3-31H,

Friday, April 5, 2024: 6 for the month; 6 for the quarter, 205 for the year
37571, conf, CLR, Cuskelly 6-7H,

Thursday, April 4, 2024: 4 for the month; 4 for the quarter, 203 for the year
36083, conf, Hess, BB-Federal A-LS-151-95-1615H-10,

Wednesday, April 3, 2024: 3 for the month; 3 for the quarter, 202 for the year
36082, conf, Hess, BB-Federal A-LS-151-95-1615H-11,

Tuesday, April 2, 2024: 2 for the month; 2 for the quarter, 201 for the year
38972, conf, SOGC, Harris Federal 3-31H,

Monday, April 1, 2024: 1 for the month; 1 for the quarter, 200 for the year
39402, conf, Hess, TI-Ives-157-94-0601H-2,

Sunday, March 31, 2024: 140 for the month; 199 for the quarter, 199 for the year
None.

Saturday, March 30, 2024: 140 for the month; 199 for the quarter, 199 for the year
None.

Saturday, March 30, 2024

University Of Alabama, Grant Nelsen -- Devils Lake, ND, Native -- Advance To Final Four — First Time In Alabama's Program History -- March Madness -- NCAA Men's -- March 30, 2024

Locator: 46874SPORTS.

Sort of reminds me of Phil Jackson's trajectory..

From wiki:

************************
The Book Page

 The Blue Machine: How the Ocean Works, Helen Czeerski, c. 2023.

Mentioned earlier.

Tonight while reading this book --- wow, wow, wow -- the treasure ships of China, in the 15th century.

I've been fascinated by this story since I first read about it years ago (Gavin Menzies); there are several posts on the blog about the Chinese treasure ships of the 15th century. These ships, a giant fleet of 250 Chinese ships crewed by 27,000 men, known to history as the treasure ships. 

[A digression: this is really, really a bad example of scientific dialogue; based on this one review, it's unlikely I would ever read any book authored by Robert Finlay. He seems he has a closed mind on this subjecgt. I've read of Menzies' books and he convinced me. On top of that, Czerski's book, again, supports Menzies' thesis -- think about this -- 250 ships sailing "around" the world for 28 years -- think about that -- 28 years  -- Christopher Columbus with three small ships changed history with one or two years of sailing; Magellan, similarly -- but the Chinese -- 250 ships sailing for their emperor for 28 years -- ]

From the book, p186:

Kirin beer is named after the Japanese word for qilin (which means both the mythical creature, somewhat like a giraffe, which the Chinese invented before any of them saw the real thing, and the giraffe itself), although the creature on their logo is closer to the mythical beast than a modern giraffe.

From wiki:

****************
Word for the Day

Gyre.

Link here.

Detergent -- Don't Even Get Me Started -- March 30, 2024

Locator: 46873DETERGENT.

As low as 9 cents / load (see Walgreens below), and Kroger (28 cents/load); Walmart (22 cents/load); and Instacart, a whopping 32 cents/load:

From the internet today:


Meanwhile, at Walgreens today, on sale. And, yes, I stocked up:

  • $7.49 / 63 loads = 11.89 cents/ (less than the bar at 13 cents)
  • $7.49 / 84 loads = 8.9 cents (well less than 13 cents / load)


 

Inflation Watch -- Soda -- March 30, 2024

Locator: 46872SODA.

From Kroger's today -- the grocery store chain that the Biden administration / DOJ has a problem with. 

Walmart today:

Spreadsheet:

  • Walmart soda today: 56 cents / can
  • Kroger soda today: 22 cents / can

Detergent -- March 30, 2024

Locator: 46871DETERGENT.





Inflation Watch -- March 30, 2024

Locator: 46870INFLATION.

Honda mileage: driving a bit more these days, taking Sophia to soccer-related events.

Detergent:

  • detergent prices are impossible to track ... if one doesn't do it correctly
  • the trick? Total price / number of loads (and one actually doesn't need to use the recommended amount; one can stretch by number of loads by 33%), but having said that, total price / number of loads, the bar? Thirteen cents ($0.13) per load.

So, the following?

  • $7.49 / 63 loads = 11.89 cents/ (less than the bar at 13 cents)
  • $7.49 / 84 loads = 8.9 cents (well less than 13 cents / load)



Exhibit A: the price of Tesla in 2024 vs several years ago.

*****************************
The Book Page

The Blue Machine: How The Ocean Works, Helen Czerski, c. 2023.

Helen Czerski: physicist and oceanographer at University of College London's Department of Mechanical Engineering. A columnist for The Wall Street Journal.

***************************
Bat Cave

One of the best things I've done in the past few years: build the Bat Cave. 

Two things that make my Bat Cave perfect:

  • it's physically detached from where I live / eat / sleep; and,
  • it's in an undisclosed location

And, Curious George lives there and maintains it when I'm not around.


Next up: a Batmobile.

Let's Go Brandon -- March 30, 2024

Locator: 46869B.


Elsewhere, link here: does the F-35 make military sense? The F-35s are for "something else." A four-letter word, rhymes with Koran, and starts with the letter "i." $2.5 billion / 25 F-35A fighters = $100 million apiece

Independent cost analysis, from October, 2023:

WASHINGTON — The flyaway cost for the F-15EX Eagle II is approximately $90 million for each aircraft in the program’s second production lot, about $7.5 million more than the newest price for an F-35A. [90. - 7.5 = $82.5].

... a contract for the next three production lots of the Boeing-made F-15EX was finalized on September 28, 2023, a major milestone for the program. But the $90 million per unit cost in the contract — a number that is expected to grow in successive lots — will likely raise eyebrows among critics both within and outside the service who argue that officials should focus on buying more F-35s.

Under the new agreement, the price for an F-15EX will start at “approximately” $90 million for lot 2, rise to $97 million in lot 3 and then dip to $94 million in lot 4, according to an Air Force spokesperson. The two parties previously finalized a deal for the aircraft’s first lot in November 2022, setting a flyaway price of $80.5 million for six jets with two test aircraft already purchased — meaning the costs on the F-15EX are going up per unit year over year until the fourth lot is introduced. (The Air Force measures flyaway price in then-year dollars, which are adjusted for inflation.)

As a cost comparison, the Air Force’s variant of the stealth fighter has an “average” flyaway cost of $82.5 million for the jet’s 15th, 16th and 17th production lots, which will be delivered in calendar years 2023, 2024 and 2025.

*****************************
Flashback

Flagship for the F-15 squadron -- the 22nd Tactical Fighter Squadron -- to which I was assigned back in 1984. 

Wow, 40 years ago. 

I retired 17 years ago in my mid-50's. Great memories but no nostalgia.

Rivian Update -- March 30, 2024

Locator: 46868EVS.

Tag: Rivian.

Highlights:

  • burning cash
  • it's one factory is shutting down for one month to re-tool
  • plans for a new Georgia, US, factory on hold
  • their hoped-for cash cow won't be available until 2026; announced early 2024;
  • dissatisfied early buyers
  • overall EV market in disarray --> pivot to hybrids?

The links



 

***************************
At The Blog

EVs: link here