The "Gap" Continues To Widen -- Natural Gas Fill Rate -- October 1, 2020

I sound like a broken record, but the natural gas fill rate is a function of crude oil production as much as anything else. 

Link here. 

The fill rate should start to "turn" at the end of October. It will be interesting to see whether this happens this year as oil production starts to come back on line.

Enerplus' "Precipitous Ridge" Pad

From earlier today:

Seven new permits, #37868 - #37874, inclusive (permits renewed September 27, 2024):

• Operator: Enerplus
• Field: Antelope (McKenzie)
• Comments:
• Enerplus has permits for a 7-well "precipitous ridge" pad (Flatiron, Shoal, Fjord, Hogback, Arroyo, Barchan, and Cirque) -- see below) in NWNW 28-152-94, 330' NFL and 1068' to 1278' FWL; 

The geologic structure terms:

• flatiron: a steeply sloping triangular landform;
• shoal: a natural submerged ridge, bank, or bar; also known as sandbars, sandbanks, gravelbars;
• fjord:
• hogback: a long, narrow ridge or a series of hills with a narrow crest and steep slopes of nearly equal inclination on both flanks
• arroyo:
• barchan: crescent-shaped sand dune
• cirque: amphitheatre-shaped basin with precipitous walls

Speaking of shoals:

*************************
October! Welcome!

 

Shoot-Out In The Bakken! Slawson Vs MRO! -- October 1, 2020

 Slawson from June 5, 2019:

• June 5, 2019
• 31278, 4,862, Slawson, Torpedo Federal 10H, Big Bend, t12/18; cum 178K in 41 days; TD: 25,490 feet;139,068 bbls in 29 cays, 4/19: see this post;

MRO from today, October 1, 2020:

• 51,150 bbls of crude oil over 11 days extrapolates to 139,500 bbls of crude oil (not boe, but bo) over 30 days:
  

• The well:
  

• 36914, drl/A, MRO, Keyes USA 21-3H, Antelope-Sanish, 33-053-09197, t--; cum 113K 2 months; fracked 3/22/20 - 4/2/20; 7.2 million gallons of water; SWSW 34-152-95; see above;

As good as the MRO well is, I have to give the nod to Slawson's Torpedo Federal well. 

But these are two different situations. This is almost comparing apples and oranges. But this is what the Bakken is all about. When the going gets tough, the tough get going.

Record IPs In The Bakken

Page 2
Page 1

 

For FAQs, go to this link; but FAQ #9 will no longer be updated there. Updates will be posted here.

Note: cumulative production will be affected by oil prices and operators managing their assets. 

FAQ #9. What is the record IP to date in the Williston Basin? These may hold the record:

 

June 21, 2021:

The well:

• 36223, 7,146, MRO, Sherman USA 21-2TFH, Antelope-Sanish, t12/20; cum 239K 4/21; January, 2021, production extrapolates to 87K over 30 days; first bench Three Fork; 45 stages; 195,502 bbls = 8.2 million gallons (moderate frack); drilling unit: 1280 acres;

Pool	Date	Days	BBLS Oil	Runs	BBLS Water	MCF Prod	MCF Sold	Vent/Flare
SANISH	4-2021	30	34314	34215	15081	69809	62183	4913
SANISH	3-2021	31	56468	56531	22128	93615	85185	4418
SANISH	2-2021	27	52678	52556	24382	71207	67549	592
SANISH	1-2021	20	57773	57891	29260	70332	58189	8805
SANISH	12-2020	6	28220	27599	15434	36388	17679	17008

 

April 27, 2021:

The well:

• 36221, drl/A, MRO, Daniel USA 11-2TFH-2B, Sanish-Antelope, first production, 1/21; t--; cum 122K in less than two months; 33-053-08982; 84,000 bbls over 25 days extrapolates to 100,806 bbls of crude oil over 30 days, and, of course, there's a bit of natural gas, also.
  

Pool	Date	Days	BBLS Oil	Runs	BBLS Water	MCF Prod	MCF Sold	Vent/Flare
SANISH	2-2021	26	37780	38063	20542	51002	48236	2646
SANISH	1-2021	25	84005	83278	50812	121157	91845	29058
SANISH	12-2020	2	188	184	426	1195	0	1185

• March 23, 2021: the MRO Chauncey-Winona pad, link here. 
  
  
• March 3, 2021: MRO wells in Antelope-Sanish. Link here.
  

• December 24, 2020: the MRO L-O-T-V wells in Reunion Bay. Link here. 
  

• November 30, 2020: several MRO wells; the Marion USA in the Antelope-Sanish; 110,439 bbls over 30 days. Link here.
  

• October 26, 2020: see four huge MRO wells in the Antelope-Sanish oil field at this post.
  

• October 1, 2020: see the four huge MRO wells in the Antelope-Sanish oil field at this post. 
  

MRO Reports A Well With Initial Production Producing At A Rate Of 104,000 Bbls Per 30 Days -- October 1, 2020

96,941 bbls over 28 days extrapolates to 103,865 bbls crude oil over 30 days. 

The well:

• 36859, drl/A, MRO, Rock Woman USA 41-4TFH, Antelope-Sanish, t--; cum 281K 8/20; fracked 2/24/2020 - 3/6/2020; 8.0 million gallons of water; a moderate frack;
  

Pool	Date	Days	BBLS Oil	Runs	BBLS Water	MCF Prod	MCF Sold	Vent/Flare
SANISH	8-2020	31	27210	27407	11679	93148	62092	29350
SANISH	7-2020	31	44006	44134	18763	139017	66599	69764
SANISH	6-2020	29	54387	54355	19176	105096	73666	28239
SANISH	5-2020	24	57748	57507	22053	94067	74938	15730
SANISH	4-2020	28	96941	96781	47283	60659	0	55094
SANISH	3-2020	2	318	0	46	1947	0	1930

MRO Reports A Well With Initial Production Producing At A Rate Of Over 87,000 Bbls Over 30 Days -- October 1, 2020

Record IPs in the Bakken are tracked at this link. 

The well:

• 36860, drl/A, MRO, Papa George USA 41-4H, 33-053-09178, Antelope-Sanish, t--; cum 237K 4.7 months; fracked 2/24/20 - 3/6/20; 8.1 million gallons of water; lot 2 4-151-94; see also #36859; #19473; #36911;
  

Pool	Date	Days	BBLS Oil	Runs	BBLS Water	MCF Prod	MCF Sold	Vent/Flare
SANISH	8-2020	31	25899	25992	10493	82394	55227	25556
SANISH	7-2020	31	35200	35348	14040	97600	46660	48840
SANISH	6-2020	30	46883	46758	17360	96072	67979	25330
SANISH	5-2020	23	41978	41888	15805	70865	56979	11408
SANISH	4-2020	30	87444	87012	37429	91025	71795	14261
SANISH	3-2020	7	0	0	1027	262	0	262

MRO Reports A Well With Initial Production Producing At A Rate Of Nearly 90,000 Bbls Over 30 Days --October 1, 2020

65,353 bbls over 22 days extrapolates to 89,118 bbls of crude oil over 30 days.

Record IPs in the Bakken are tracked at this link. 

The well:

• 36927, drl/A, MRO, Weasel USA 11-3H, 33-053-09022, Antelope-Sanish, t--; cum 259K 4 months; fracked 8/19/19 - 9/16/19; 8.3 million gallons of water; 87.3% water by mass; SWSW 34-152-94; see also #36913; #36912; #36915; #36911 (below); #36912; #36915; #36914;
  

Pool	Date	Days	BBLS Oil	Runs	BBLS Water	MCF Prod	MCF Sold	Vent/Flare
SANISH	8-2020	31	27557	27441	10837	78966	67986	8177
SANISH	7-2020	31	48408	48809	13654	107162	59189	44236
SANISH	6-2020	29	67526	67506	17573	102461	49794	48012
SANISH	5-2020	22	65353	65808	25272	82851	0	79089
SANISH	4-2020	12	50280	49247	24679	66214	0	63281

MRO Reports A Well With Initial Production Producing At A Rate Of Almost 90,000 Bbls Crude Oil Over 30 Day -- October 1, 2020

74,534 bbls of crude oil over 25 days extrapolates to 89,441 bbls of crude oil over 30 days.

Record IPs in the Bakken are tracked at this link. 

The well:

• 36911, drl/A, MRO, Martha USA 11-3TFH-2B, 33-053-09194, Antelope-Sanish, t--; cum 245K 5 months; fracked 3/9/20 - 3/21/20; 7.8 million gallons of water; SWSW 34-152-94; see above;
  

Pool	Date	Days	BBLS Oil	Runs	BBLS Water	MCF Prod	MCF Sold	Vent/Flare
SANISH	8-2020	31	23737	23563	12168	84240	82284	454
SANISH	7-2020	31	37452	37767	17565	109336	101884	5195
SANISH	6-2020	28	49444	49293	20465	87141	46363	37888
SANISH	5-2020	25	59499	59730	25638	86135	0	82712
SANISH	4-2020	25	74534	73690	35947	106110	0	101886

MRO Reports Well With Initial Production At Rate Of 140,000 Bbls Crude Oil Over 30 Days -- October 1, 2020

Record IPs in the Bakken are tracked at this link. 

51,150 bbls of crude oil over 11 days extrapolates to 139,500 bbls of crude oil (not boe, but bo) over 30 days:

The well:

• 36914, drl/A, MRO, Keyes USA 21-3H, Antelope-Sanish, 33-053-09197, t--; cum 113K 2 months; fracked 3/22/20 - 4/2/20; 7.2 million gallons of water; SWSW 34-152-95; see above;

Pool	Date	Days	BBLS Oil	Runs	BBLS Water	MCF Prod	MCF Sold	Vent/Flare
SANISH	8-2020	24	29964	29752	69840	38235	30770	5234
SANISH	7-2020	12	31655	31526	8004	39391	20276	17006
SANISH	6-2020	0	0	452	0	0	0	0
SANISH	5-2020	11	51150	50698	17269	73704	0	70766
SANISH	4-2020	3	0	0	1055	519	0	518

Four Huge MRO Wells -- Antelope-Sanish -- October 1, 2020

It should be noted that all four wells were moderate fracks.  Record IPs in the Bakken are tracked at this link.

 The wells:

• 36860, drl/A-->6,421, MRO, Papa George USA 41-4H, 33-053-09178, Antelope-Sanish, t--; cum 237K 4.7 months; fracked 2/24/20 - 3/6/20; 8.1 million gallons of water; lot 2 4-151-94; see also #36859; #19473; #36911; cum 338K 5/21;
  

Pool	Date	Days	BBLS Oil	Runs	BBLS Water	MCF Prod	MCF Sold	Vent/Flare
SANISH	8-2020	31	25899	25992	10493	82394	55227	25556
SANISH	7-2020	31	35200	35348	14040	97600	46660	48840
SANISH	6-2020	30	46883	46758	17360	96072	67979	25330
SANISH	5-2020	23	41978	41888	15805	70865	56979	11408
SANISH	4-2020	30	87444	87012	37429	91025	71795	14261
SANISH	3-2020	7	0	0	1027	262	0	262

• 36927, drl/A, MRO, Weasel USA 11-3H, 33-053-09022, Antelope-Sanish, t--; cum 259K 4 months; fracked 8/19/19 - 9/16/19; 8.3 million gallons of water; 87.3% water by mass; SWSW 34-152-94; see also #36913; #36912; #36915; #36911 (below); #36912; #36915; #36914;
  

Pool	Date	Days	BBLS Oil	Runs	BBLS Water	MCF Prod	MCF Sold	Vent/Flare
SANISH	8-2020	31	27557	27441	10837	78966	67986	8177
SANISH	7-2020	31	48408	48809	13654	107162	59189	44236
SANISH	6-2020	29	67526	67506	17573	102461	49794	48012
SANISH	5-2020	22	65353	65808	25272	82851	0	79089
SANISH	4-2020	12	50280	49247	24679	66214	0	63281

• 36911, drl/A, MRO, Martha USA 11-3TFH-2B, 33-053-09194, Antelope-Sanish, t--; cum 245K 5 months; fracked 3/9/20 - 3/21/20; 7.8 million gallons of water; SWSW 34-152-94; see above;
  

Pool	Date	Days	BBLS Oil	Runs	BBLS Water	MCF Prod	MCF Sold	Vent/Flare
SANISH	8-2020	31	23737	23563	12168	84240	82284	454
SANISH	7-2020	31	37452	37767	17565	109336	101884	5195
SANISH	6-2020	28	49444	49293	20465	87141	46363	37888
SANISH	5-2020	25	59499	59730	25638	86135	0	82712
SANISH	4-2020	25	74534	73690	35947	106110	0	101886

• 36914, drl/A, MRO, Keyes USA 21-3H, Antelope-Sanish, 33-053-09197, t--; cum 113K 2 months; fracked 3/22/20 - 4/2/20; 7.2 million gallons of water; SWSW 34-152-95; see above;
  

Pool	Date	Days	BBLS Oil	Runs	BBLS Water	MCF Prod	MCF Sold	Vent/Flare
SANISH	8-2020	24	29964	29752	69840	38235	30770	5234
SANISH	7-2020	12	31655	31526	8004	39391	20276	17006
SANISH	6-2020	0	0	452	0	0	0	0
SANISH	5-2020	11	51150	50698	17269	73704	0	70766
SANISH	4-2020	3	0	0	1055	519	0	518

*******************************
Parent Well In The Immediate Area

The well:

• 19321, 1,274, MRO, Danks USA 11-3H, Antelope-Sanish, t8/11; cum 633K 8/20; production:

  Pool	Date	Days	BBLS Oil	Runs	BBLS Water	MCF Prod	MCF Sold	Vent/Flare
  SANISH	8-2020	11	2493	2331	1660	3892	0	3581
  SANISH	7-2020	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
  SANISH	6-2020	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
  SANISH	5-2020	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
  SANISH	4-2020	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
  SANISH	3-2020	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
  SANISH	2-2020	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
  SANISH	1-2020	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
  SANISH	12-2019	25	2370	2499	153	3172	0	2641
  SANISH	11-2019	30	3053	3166	212	4072	0	3401

Way Ahead Of My Headlights; Idle Rambling; A Better Analysis Needed -- October 1, 2020

Re-posting from September 27, 2020:

Link here.

And yet, now ZeroHedge seems "anxious" about this: "Americans burned through a 'staggering' $724 billion in annualized savings in August as stimulus fades."

I don't know what "annualized" savings means. I assume "annualized" means amount of savings spent in August, then multiplied by 12, with fudge factors to take into account the month of Augut, but let's just do this:

$724 billion/ 12 months  / $12 trillion = 0.005 = .5%. 

So, instead of $12 trillion in savings deposits, there would be $12.06 trillion. And the math checks: 0.06 / 12 = 0.005 or 0.5%.

But look at this:

• personal spending came in above consensus expectations, rising 1.0%M (vs. consensus at 0.8%M), 
• with July downwardly revised by 40 basis points to 1.5%M (note the obfuscation: switching from "basis points" to "percent" in seven keystrokes. [A basis point is one-hundredth of one percent. Interestingly, the numbers above are rounded to tenths of a percent. I don't understand/know what it means, but it certainly doesn't get me excited. Maybe it should.]
• spending was driven by a 1.4%M increase in services spending, while durable goods spending rose by 0.9%M and spending on nondurable goods declined by 0.1%M.
  

From the linked article:

And here lies the problem: lower income coupled higher spending in a time when the vast majority of Americans were looking forward to more stimulus meant that US consumer rapidly burned through savings. According to the BEA, in August, the amount of annualized savings tumbled by $723 billion to $2.435 trillion, the lowest since March and far below the $6.4 trillion peak in annualized personal savings hit in April.

Now, maybe ZeroHedge can sort out this more recent article with the earlier article on record savings by Americans. 

I think it all has to do with "annualized." Whatever.

A reader suggests a lot of that $724 billion in "spending" had a lot to do with record homes sales in July and August. Record home sales are expected to continue through this month, October, 2020.

And, by the way, isn't that the purpose of savings? To get us through unexpected periods of turbulence? As long as folks aren't adding more debt to survive ....

... seems like we need a better analysis than what we are given. 

The fact that the US House doesn't feel the need for another stimulus at this point suggests things aren't so bad.

Back-of-the-envelope: 5 million homes sold in 2020; two million of these between July and October, down payments / cost of closing per home: $50,000 = $100 billion. That's a pretty good chunk of that $274 billion.

Eagle Ford Producer Lonestar Resources Files; Upwards Of Forty Permits PNC Due To Permits Expirting;

Updates

Later, 9:17 p.m. CDT: just after posting the note below, this story popped up on my radar: NFL football game game scheduled this weekend is postponed indefinitely due to Covid-19. Now these guys are taking all precautions to prevent coming down with Covid-19, and here you have it. I guess masks aren't enough; social distancing, not enough. Just think, no lock down and these guys would have all had the infection four months ago, and would now be immune. We won't see a universal, easily accessible, inexpensive vaccine for at least a year. 

Original Post 

I'm going to sound like a broken record, but I've become convinced that the Chinese Flu pandemic of 2020 will be a repeat of the Spanish Flu pandemic of 1918. There's no reason why it won't. There will be fewer deaths (by a large margin; better medical care); no vaccine until the pandemic has largely run its course; multiple "waves."  Most places around the world are in the second wave now. Re-posting:

The best historic precedent:

The Spanish flu, also known as the 1918 flu pandemic, was an unusually deadly influenza pandemic caused by the H1N1 influenza A virus. Lasting from February 1918 to April 1920, it infected 500 million people – about a third of the world's population at the time – in four successive waves. The death toll is typically estimated to have been somewhere between 17 million and 50 million, making it one of the deadliest pandemics in human history.

Let's parse that paragraph:

• February, 1918 --April, 1920: 26 months
• no vaccine -- didn't even know it was a virus at that time
  
• a third of the world's population became infected
• death toll: estimated between 17 million and 50 million
• four successive waves

Most remarkable: despite no vaccine, "only" a third of the world's population became infected. 

I've completely tuned out the market. I remain fully invested and will continue adding to all my positions on a regular basis but I'm not following the market at all. It's pretty much impossible to not see the market (surfing the net, surfing television, e-mail, etc) but I'm doing my best. My short term horizon is five years; my long term horizon is thirty years. 

Autos: link to Investor's Business Daily.

• US auto sales tanked10% at GM and Fiat Chrysler in 3Q20
• Ford is likely to report tomorrow, Friday, October 2, 2020
• as bad as the numbers are, they are beter than 2Q20 when most automakers saw declines of 30% or more

Apple: nothing new being reported today

Lonestar Resources: Eagle Ford producer, files for bankruptcy; 

Oasis: same link. 

• restructuring is expected to reduce its debt by US$1.8 billion
• Oasis Petroleum has enough liquidity to maintain operations and expects to emerge from the restructuring process in November 2020, according to the company

**********************************
Back to the Bakken

Active rigs:

$38.72	10/1/2020	10/01/2019	10/01/2018	10/01/2017	10/01/2016
Active Rigs	11	60	63	58	33

Seven new permits, #37868 - #37874, inclusive:

• Operator: Enerplus
• Field: Antelope (McKenzie)
• Comments:
• Enerplus has permits for a 7-well "Precipitous Ridge" pad (Flatiron, Shoal, Fjord, Hogback, Arroyo, Barchan, and Cirque) -- see this link) in NWNW 28-152-94, 330' NFL and 1068' to 1278' FWL;

Three permits renewed:

• Rimrock (2): two Two Shields Butte permits in Dunn County;
• Crescent Point Energy: a CPEUSC Keith permit in Williams County

Six producing wells (DUCs) reported as completed:

• 36819, drl/A, WPX, Omaha Woman 24-13-12HY, Squaw Creek, t--; cum--;
  
• 36821, drl/A, WPX, Omaha Woman 24-13- 12HZ, Squaw Creek, t--; cum --;
  
• 36860, drl/A, MRO, Papa George USA 41-4H, Antelope, t--; cum 237K 4.7 months;
  
• 36927, drl/A, MRO, Weasel USA 11-3H, Antelope, t--; cum 259K 4 months;
  
• 36911, drl/A, MRO, Martha USA 11-3TFH-2B, Antelope, t--; cum 245K 5 months;
  
• 36914, drl/A, MRO, Keyes USA 21-3H, Antelope, t--; cum 113K 2 months;
  

About 41 wells were released from confidential status: the vast majority of these will be PNC due to permit expiring.

Chinese Flu / Wuhan Flu: SARS-CoV-2 And COVID 19

Page One
Page Two
Page Three
This is Page Four
Page Five

Vaccination rollout: link here.

The best historic precedent:

The Spanish flu, also known as the 1918 flu pandemic, was an unusually deadly influenza pandemic caused by the H1N1 influenza A virus. Lasting from February 1918 to April 1920, it infected 500 million people – about a third of the world's population at the time – in four successive waves. The death toll is typically estimated to have been somewhere between 17 million and 50 million, making it one of the deadliest pandemics in human history.

Let's parse that paragraph:

• February, 1918 --April, 1920: 26 months
• no vaccine -- didn't even know it was a virus
• a third of the world's population became infected
• death toll: estimated between 17 million and 50 million
• four successive waves

Coronavirus:

• December, 2019 - present
• September 29, 2020:
• 34 million cases
• one million deaths

Coronavirus: statistics. By country. By state.

WSJ - Johns Hopkins data. 

Genetics. Link here. Also, here.

US re-opening, tracked here.

New York: mortality rate (new link noted June 1, 2020).

Updates

November 3, 2020: what's going on in Lubbock, TX? Link here.

October 28, 2020: "Season flu" eradicated -- WHO. Link here. 

October 26, 2020: North Dakota still out of control. Update here.

October 25, 2020: North Dakota #1 in the nation for most new cases per capita. What the heck is going on? Big story of the week. White House throwing in the towel on trying to control Chinese flu; will concentrate on treatment. Does this suggest the vaccine trials are not panning out as hoped? Link here.

 

October 17, 2020: North Dakota update. What the hell is going on in Bismarck?

 

October 10, 2020: the "peculiar" Covid-19 case with regard to President Trump. Has he commented on any loss of smell; has any 74-year-old with co-morbidities with low oxygen sats (?), admitted to a major metropolitan hospital with respiratory symptoms and a a positive Covid-19 test ever "cured" so quickly? Link here. Also, see these links:

• 40 cycles: a trillion particles;
• MSNBC does the math;
• a reader's conundrum;

 

October 10, 2020: "crucial viral update, September 8, 2020."

 

October 8, 2020: WHO update.

October 5, 2020: President Trump released from Walter Reed. Washington Post calls for defunding Walter Reed.

 

October 3, 2020, around noon. President Trump's physicians provide update; says things are going well. Trump himself tweets he's doing great. Rumors that he said he was ready to be discharged. Received IV plasma and Remdesivir.

 

October 2, 2020: around midnight, President Trump says he seems to be doing well.

 

October 2, 2020: president Trump says he has tested positive for coronavirus, along with Melania (sort of like Tom and wife Hanks). Admitted to Walter Reed late in afternoon.

 

October 1, 2020: commentary. Compare with Spanish Flu, 1918 - 1920.

 

WTI Takes Huge Fall; Down 5%; Will Test $38 -- October 1, 2020

Oil traders must be reading the blog. Before the trading day started, I suggested folks may want to re-visit the history of the Spanish Flu to get an idea of where we are with regard to Covid-19.

****************************
Duolingo

Of all her apps, and of all her "streaming" activity, 6-y/o Sophia's favorite activities:

• when she signs into her class on Webex twice daily; she loves it not so much for the actual education as for seeing her teachers and her friends; she signs on for thirty minutes every morning and thirty minutes every afternoon;
• Duolingo: her Spanish app;

Her older sister helps Sophia with her morning sessions, and I have her for the rest of the day, from 12:00 noon to 7:00 p.m., though she spends part of those seven hours elsewhere. 

Our first activity at 12:00 noon is physical education. She loves that and it's easy to do. The p/e teacher has a daily exercise assignment; Sophia accomplishes that, and I take a video and send it to her teacher.

After that, Humanities (generally a reading and writing assignment) which generally takes about thirty minutes. Then we check the status of assignments in art and music. 

Then ten minutes of Duolingo and ten minutes of piano. Both are apps and although piano practice is "a pain," she is making progress, slowly but surely.

But Duolingo! Wow, she loves it. It's her favorite educational app. I think she enjoys it for several reasons:

• she gets to use the  Pencil;
• I am learning Spanish with her, but she guides the lessons; I think she feels she is competing with me and beating me; she if very, very competitive;
• the application, for some reason, is addictive -- as noted by an early reviewer;
• just challenging enough; it's almost like a puzzle every day; solving translations, English-to-Spanish and Spanish-to-English

Lithium -- October 1, 2020

Re-posting:

Lithium:

• one will start seeing a lot of stories on lithium; shortages, high prices, etc. But one thing remains: at the end of the day there will be a surplus of lithium. It may be expensive until supply and demand even out, but there won't be any shortage.
• major supply shortage; link to Tsvetana Paraskova;
• lithium recovery from oil and gas produced after (including the Bakken); link here to ACS Energy Letters;
• shale boom could fuel batteries; link to Earth: The Science Behind the Headlines; 
• lithium: world class deposit, link to investingnews; 
• Nevada is home to the only operating lithium mine in the United States which is located in Clayton Valley, Esmeralda County. The mine has been in operation since 1967, employs 85 people, and produces lithium carbonate from evaporation ponds which concentrate the lithium.
  

Tesla: one step ahead; link here;

• failed to reach a deal with Cypress Development Corp., which focuses on extracting lithium from clay deposits in southwestern Nevada;
• Tesla has secured access to 10,000 acres of lithium-rich clay deposits in Nevada, and plans to use a new, “very sustainable way” of extracting the metal.
• announcement followed pledges from the car and battery maker to produce a cheaper, lower-cost battery, build a $25,000 electric car and eventually produce 20 million vehicles a year.
• also announced deal with Glencore for cobalt; huge need for cobalt; cobalt may be the "big problem," but lithium, probably not;
  

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Apple

iPad: new iPad Air "available in October." Apparently one can order it now, but no delivery date yet established? Base model, wi-fi only, 64 GB, $599; 256 GB, $749. Seeing all the apps that 6-y/o Sophia "needs" on her iPad for school, I highly recommend springing for the 256-GB model.   Pencil essential.

With regard to connectivity, I've learned to "do without." Of the three mobile devices I carry when traveling (an iPhone, an iPad, and a MacBook Air), only the iPhone has cellular in addition to wi-fi. One can find free wi-fi almost anywhere -- although more of a pain with "everything closed due to Chinese flu"; while driving I tend not to use my iPad or my laptop.

MacBook: if you need it for work, get the MacBook Pro 16", but for home use, college, or graduate degree, get the MacBook Air. 

If one travels a lot for business, one may be better off with the MacBook Air. My hunch: the MacBook Air will meet the needs for most business men and women. MacBook Air starts at $899. Buying "up" is a fairly significant jump in price: $1,199. With the latter one gets 512GB SSD storage vs only 256GB SSD storage in the less expensive model. With the "cloud" and peripheral hard drives, I'm not sure you have to have more built-in storage, but it is nice. It's hard to believe but I have only 125 GB on my "old" MacBook Air and it's close to maxed out even after "severe" management of storage.

College student: if your college student says a "MacBook Pro" is a must, a better deal: a MacBook Air, an iPad, and and  Pencil. Your college student will thank you.

The Gap Will Widen Between The Haves (Those Who Have Jobs) And The Have-Nots (Those Who Do Not) -- October 1, 2020

Maybe, I don't know; I'll probably go back to watching a few minutes of CNBC today. I haven't watched it the past two weeks. Waiting for the dust to clear. I'm curious. The one thing CNBC "never" mentions: the plight of NYC. Watching CNBC one gets the feeling that things are fine in Manhattan. But, wow, it must be quiet. Nope, I just turned on CNBC, same ol', same ol' -- will get the jobs number and turn it back off.

The fog is clearing: for a better understanding of how Covid-19 will play out, review the Pandemic of 1918, also called the Spanish Flu:

• lasted 26 months (a full two years): February, 1918 - April, 1920
• market did not recover for five years, though it hit bottom quickly and rose quickly; true V-shaped phenomenon; after five years, trajectory was pretty much straight up -- until 1929;
  
• no vaccine ever developed
• four waves of infections
• as far as I know, there was no Dr Faust recommending shutting down the global economy to "flatten the curve"; the whole thing was over in two years; after-shocks lasted for two to three years; assigning after-shocks to Spanish Flu problematic due to WWI
  
• Covid-19
• universal, inexpensive, readily available Covid-19 vaccine: we probably won't see that until late 2021; early 2022;
• we're now seeing second wave of infections of Covid-19, especially in states like North and South Dakota which didn't see much of the first wave;
  
• flattening the curve will result in simply extending the "length" of the pandemic
• the "best" viral vaccine -- the vaccine for "seasonal flu" is only 45% effective
• since 1999, the WHO has made recommendations for "best" flu vaccine
• twenty years later, and seasonal flu numbers have not changed; the world still experiences significant outbreaks (despite the vaccine)
  
• no pathogenic virus has been eradicated in "the wild" except for smallpox
  

Jobless claims, link here:

First thing I'll see: jobless reports, but first this: