The Million Dollar Way (The Bakken Oil Blog): 07/05/18

Thursday, July 5, 2018

Random Update Of BR's Midnight Run 21-1TFH -- July 5, 2018

This page will not be updated. The well:

20324, 1,963, BR, Midnight Run 21-1TFH, Union Center, t12/11; cum 211K 5/18; look at the production jump in 5/18; API - 33-053-03439; no frack since 2011; note huge production jump which would suggest a re-frack, but FracFocus has no data for a re-frack:

The BR Midnight Run wells are tracked here.

Monthly Production Data:

Pool	Date	Days	BBLS Oil	Runs	BBLS Water	MCF Prod	MCF Sold
BAKKEN	5-2018	31	16918	16733	10477	28121	28044
BAKKEN	4-2018	30	2189	1996	2010	2521	2447
BAKKEN	3-2018	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	2-2018	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	1-2018	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	12-2017	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	11-2017	10	267	567	11	754	729
BAKKEN	10-2017	30	1949	1987	444	4906	4832
BAKKEN	9-2017	19	1450	1102	617	3196	3150

The graphic, note the heel-to-toe and the toe-to-heel configuration, something I opined about years ago:

Wells in this graphic:

Running north from the south --

31317, 157, BR, Midnight Run 2-8-12MTFH, Union Center, t3/18; cum 39K after 41 days;
31318, 133, BR, Midnight Run 3-8-12MBH, Union Center, t3/18; cum 37K after 40 days;
31319, 448, BR, Midnight Run 4-8-12MTFH, Union Center, t3/18; cum --

Running south from the north --

24537, 2,842, BR, Midnight Norse 11-1MBH-ULW, Union Center, t5/13; cum 313K 5/18; nice jump in production;
22675, 2,640, BR, Midnight Run 11-1TFH, Union Center, t10/12; cum 272K 5/18; nice jump in production;
20323, 3,325, BR, Midnight Run 11-1MBH, Union Center, t12/11; cum 345K 5/18; huge jump in production;
20324, 1,963, BR, Midnight Run 12-1TFH, Union Center, t12/11; cum 211K 5/18; huge jump in production;
20325, 2,846, BR, Midnight Run 21-1MBH, Union Center, t12/11; cum 287K 5/18; off-line since 12/17;
20326, 2,083, BR, Midnight Run 13-1TFH, Union Center, t12/11; cum 302K 5/18; nice jump in production;
17421, 544, BR, Midnight Run 41-1H, Union Center, t11/08; cum 421K 5/18;
20327, 2,443, BR, Midnight Run 41-1TFH, Union Center, t12/11; cum 292K 5/18;

For The Archives: The Dow And North Dakota Pottery -- July 5, 2018

Dow: I must have missed it. I knew Walgreens Boots Alliance, Inc, was going to replace GE in the Dow 30 but didn't catch the day when it happened. I now see that the change has taken place.

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The Pottery Page

I thought I had posted this some years ago, but could not find it. I may not have posted it.

For the archives, from wiki:

North Dakota in the United States has been the scene of modern era pottery production using North Dakota clays since the early 1900s.

In 1892 a study was published by Earle Babcock, a chemistry instructor at the University of North Dakota (UND) that reported on the superior qualities of some of the North Dakota clays for pottery production. The UND School of Mines began operations in 1898 with Earle Babcock as director. With the assistance of several eastern potteries, pottery made from North Dakota clay was first displayed at the 1904 St. Louis World's Fair.

From this beginning, a Ceramics Department was founded at the University and a talented potter, Margaret Kelly Cable, was hired as its director.

The university trained many of the people later involved in other pottery ventures within the state.

These include Charles Grantier who worked at Dickinson Clay Products Company (Dickota) and later served as state director of the WPA Ceramics Project. Laura Taylor (Hughes) preceded Charles Grantier as state director at WPA and later became a partner in the Wahpeton Pottery Company (Rosemeade) which operated from 1940 until 1961. The WPA project was active first in Dickinson, North Dakota and then in Mandan, North Dakota from 1936 until 1942.

The Political Page, T+35 -- July 5, 2018 -- Trump's Second Season

This is really, really cool.

On March 13, 2018, I responded to the assertion by the "mainstream media," that the White House was in turmoil, in chaos, out of control. Not at all. This is what I wrote at that post:

No matter what side of the political aisle you are on, one has to admit this is the most fascinating administration we've seen in some time. I'm glad I lived long enough to see it.

One has to really get a kick out of Trump's White House. It was often suggested that Ronald Reagan thought he was playing a character on the big screen.

Trump? The White House is his sequel to "The Apprentice" and we've just seen the conclusion of the first season. Throughout the first season one question of many: would Tillerson remain for the second season? LOL.

The second season begins without Tillerson. Iran? Not happy. Russia? Not happy. My wife? Thrilled. Two out of three ain't bad.

The first season was quite a roller coaster of folks coming and going in the West Wing, and I'm not talking about visitors.

Also, note the graphic at that post:

Too cool!

So, we are into "Season 2 of the Trump presidency. Some called it the "Apprentice, Season 2." Now, the Drudge Report suggests it is "Survivor, Season 2."

We've already seen quite a changeover from Season 1 to Season 2, so the Drudge graphic is already a bit behind. But the "x" is on the EPA chief Scott Pruitt.

The alt-left will consider this a huge victory.

Maybe, maybe not. I don't know. We will see how this plays out.

But consider:

The heavy lifting over at the EPA has been accomplished, and it was accomplished by Scott Pruitt.

It's not unusual in the business world that once goals are met, the CEO is sacked/replaced. Sometimes it's deserved; sometimes it's not. But then the corporation brings in another CEO who wants to prove herself up to the task.

But consider:

Trump's popularity ain't bad. His polling consistently compares favorably (or better) than Bush II or Obama at the same point in their presidencies. But Trump's team is moving into the mid-terms. Time to get rid of those who are dragging down his numbers; time to get rid of the lightning rods that are attracting unneeded attention.

But consider:

Trump is now starting to put together the team he will need to go into the mid-terms. And what a huge stroke of luck to get a Supreme Court pick just before the election. Even if his first selection is a sacrificial lamb who does not confirmed, one can guarantee his first choice, whether she is confirmed or not, will solidify his base. In fact, one can see a scenario in which his polling markedly improves if his first choice is not confirmed.

It will be interesting to read the obits in conservative media on Scott Pruitt's short tenure as EPA chief.

Bottom line: a month from now, probably sooner, the press will forget all about Scott, and one less issue with which the Trump team has to deal.

The heavy lifting was done. Some, not many, of his policies may be overturned by his successor. That's fine. The tone over at the EPA has changed for the better.

My hunch: the president, his chief of staff, Pruitt's team and a bunch of other folks put together a list of pros and cons on the proverbial yellow legal tab and came up with the right answer.

Random Update, Petro-Hunt, A Charlson USA Well -- July 5, 2018

Updates

August 11, 2019: the graphic in the original post has been updated --

The six "new" wells to the east (note that the #32533 horizontal does not show up on the map):

32533, 946, Petro-Hunt, USA 153-95-4B-9-4H, Charlson, t1/19; cum 208K 9/19;
32532, 586, Petro-Hunt, USA 153-95-4B-9-5H, Charlson, t1/19; cum 105K 9/19;
32531, 1,134, Petro-Hunt, USA 153-95-4B-9-6H, Charlson, t1/19; cum 253K 9/19;
32530, 308, Petro-Hunt, USA 153-95-4B-9-7H, Charlson, t1/19; cum 192K 9/19;
32529, 1,201, Petro-Hunt, USA 153-95-4B-9-8H, Charlson, t1/19; cum 191K 9/19;
33905, 1,219, Petro-Hunt, USA 153-95-4B-9A-1HS, Charlson, t10/18; cum 181K 9/19;

Pool	Date	Days	BBLS Oil	Runs	BBLS Water	MCF Prod	Vent/Flare
BAKKEN	6-2019	7	3264	3113	1244	4368	4368
BAKKEN	5-2019	30	14648	14810	5780	19499	19374
BAKKEN	4-2019	30	17420	17381	6208	22927	22718
BAKKEN	3-2019	31	20336	20180	7098	30082	29866
BAKKEN	2-2019	28	19042	19075	6461	29312	29137
BAKKEN	1-2019	31	29206	29189	8488	42501	42285
BAKKEN	12-2018	31	30839	30973	7503	44394	44179
BAKKEN	11-2018	1	87	271	0	1	0
BAKKEN	10-2018	11	12080	11472	1805	7493	7416

Original Post

Petro-Hunt Charlson USA wells in 154-94-13 are tracked here.

The Petro-Hunt Charlson USA wells at this post are in 153-95-4.

The Petro-Hunt Charlson USA wells are always interesting. Take a look at this one:

27208, 2,262, Petro-Hunt USA 153-95-4B-8-2HS, t12/14; cum 630K 9/19; producing 5,000 bbls/month (6/19); not on a pump as of 5/18; now on a pump (noted 6/19);

Now look at the production profile, look at the jump in production, 9/17; it was off-line for less than a month. A well from the south (#30685, USA 153-95-9C-4-3H, was tested 8/17 which corresponds with the jump in production below).
Monthly Production Data:

Pool	Date	Days	BBLS Oil	Runs	BBLS Water	MCF Prod	MCF Sold	Vent/Flare
BAKKEN	5-2018	31	9702	9493	3503	23476	23168	92
BAKKEN	4-2018	30	9603	9789	4073	23102	22075	818
BAKKEN	3-2018	31	11137	11215	3578	25090	24874	0
BAKKEN	2-2018	28	10815	10760	3632	22717	21980	542
BAKKEN	1-2018	31	12081	12092	3947	23406	23190	0
BAKKEN	12-2017	31	12802	12759	3467	22487	22271	0
BAKKEN	11-2017	30	13347	13333	3473	24488	10475	13804
BAKKEN	10-2017	31	15604	15618	3143	27292	0	27076
BAKKEN	9-2017	30	14613	14131	2552	23480	0	23299
BAKKEN	8-2017	3	554	914	117	2110	2089	0
BAKKEN	7-2017	31	5740	5789	1252	20515	20299	0
BAKKEN	6-2017	30	6092	6129	1372	20436	19751	476
BAKKEN	5-2017	31	5926	5669	1350	19643	6863	12564
BAKKEN	4-2017	30	9192	9240	1415	20129	19920	0

The graphic:

Other wells in that graphic:

27208, 2,262, Petro-Hunt, USA 153-95-4B-8-2HS, Charlson, t12/14; cum 630K 9/19; huge jump in 9/17;
27918, 1,167, Petro-Hunt, USA 153-95-4B-8-1HS, Charlson, t12/14; cum 338K 9/19; huge jump in 9/17;
20342, 1,430, Petro-Hunt, USA 153-95-4B-8-1H, Charlson, t11/11; cum 1.026493 million bbls 919; huge jump in 9/17; closing in on one million bbls cumulative (858,278 bo + 1,283,115 MCF = 858,278 + 213,817 boe = 1.07 million boe in less than seven years; Bakken wells will produce for 30+ years

30685, from the south, running north, 1,380, Petro-Hunt, USA 153-95-9C-4-3H, Charlson, t8/17; cum 281K 9/19; huge jump in 9/17; off line 6/19; returns to production, 9/19;

11983, 60/220 (Bakken/Silurian); from the Bakken only (Silurian is now PNA), Petro-Hunt, USA 5D-4-4HR, Charlson, t5/08; cum 212K 9/19;

Finally! Two More DUCs Reported As Completed -- July 5, 2018

Wow! WTI, Brent, and OPEC basket all down about 1% to 1.5% at the close after being up a bit earlier in the day. Some say that "Trump's tweets: drove the decline; others say that Saudi Arabia lost market share when they raised prices; now Saudi Arabia will cut prices to try to grab market share. Either way, this is bad news for Saudi Arabia. See Saudi's most recent foreign reserve assets -- a decline despite rising prices; and now, Saudi says they will lower prices.

Disclaimer: this is not an investment site.

Sweet spot? Is this not the sweet spot for diversified investors with a slight overweighting in oil? Anything over $55/bbl is huge for the oil companies. If oil goes too high, the economy slows. So a pullback to the high-60's is just fine. The only fly in the ointment? The anxiety over tariffs. Buying opportunity.

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Back to the Bakken

Active rigs:

$73.12↓↓	7/5/2018	07/05/2017	07/05/2016	07/05/2015	07/05/2014
Active Rigs	65	57	31	76	191

Seven new permits:

Operators: Oasis (4); Liberty Resources (2); Resonance Exploration
Fields: Banks (McKenzie); Kittleson Slough (Mountrail); Serges (Bottineau)
Comments: Oasis has permits for a 4-well Kellogg Federal pad in NENW 30-152-97;

One permit canceled: Hess, En-Weyrauch B well in Mountrail County

Two producing wells completed:

32267, 215, BR, CCU Pacific Express 22-19 MBH, Corral Creek, t5/18; cum --
32268, 238, BR, CCU Pacific Express 22-19 TFH, Corral Creek, t5/18; cum --

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"How Big Is North Dakota, Any Way?"

When I travel cross country and tell folks where I am from, the #1 question is, "where is North Dakota?" or, the variant, "Is North Dakota in Canada?"

The second most oft-asked question is, "how big is North Dakota any way?"

For those who need to know:

Saudi Foreign Reserves Fall Again -- July 5, 2018

Jobs: ADP -- private sector added 177,000 jobs in June. May numbers revised up to 189,000 from 178,000. The June number was close to the forecast who had expected an average of 190,000.
The government's monthly data will be released Friday. The unemployment rat is expected to hold steady at 3.8%, an 18-year low. Heaven forbid for the Trump team if unemployment ticks up to 4%. The mainstream media will have a field day, as they say.

I no longer pay much attention to "jobs" data any more. I've long forgotten the "thresholds." From the blog:

Economists estimate the labor market needs to create about 125,000 jobs a month to keep the unemployment rate steady, though estimates vary -- Reuters.

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Doubts Grow

I said from the very beginning and have brought it up many times since: strong doubts that we will ever see the Aramco IPO. My reasons for doubting the IPO were probably wrong (maybe not) but regardless, "doubts grow," according to The WSJ.

I track the Saudi Aramco IPO here.

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Saudi Foreign Exchange Reserves

A reminder: prices have been inching up in May. Foreign exchange reserves, I assume, = income - expenses. And Saudi has a lot of expenses.

Just posted today at this link:

Men Are From Mars, Women From Venus -- July 5, 2018; A Shout-Out To McDonald's; Tesla, Brakes, Surge

Pardon the interruption, breaking news. Don suggested that for Tesla to surge its production in the last week of the quarter/month, there are going to be a lot of quality issues 90 days from now. And here it is, less than a week after the end of the quarter, from oilprice.com:

Tesla reportedly skipped brake test to hit Model 3 target.

At least if you're going to skip something in the production cycle, you might as well skip something relatively unimportant. LOL.

Now, back to the original post.

From SeekingAlpha. I am posting this only to educate myself regarding US sour. There is no other reason why I am posting this.

MARS:

Sellers of U.S. sour crude grades have lowered prices also because OPEC and allies agreed in June to boost production by an unspecified number, which Saudi Arabia interprets as an increase of up to 1 million bpd.

Currently, the U.S. Mars grade for Asian customers for October delivery is offered at US$1.00-1.50 a barrel premium over the Dubai benchmark on a cost-and-freight basis—down by at least US$0.50 per barrel from the Mars grade prices for September delivery.

The current Mars pricing is on par with the Middle Eastern sour crude Oman.

Bakken is sweet. From oilprice.com:

But I do believe, and correct me if I'm wrong, it's considerably less expensive to produce Williston sour than it is to produce Williston sweet. [Later: see first two comments.]

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A Huge Shout Out To McDonald's

McDonald's is in the midst of renovating many of its US restaurants.

According to a recent investor conference call, McDonald’s will use a big part of its saving from the new lower corporate tax to give 4,000 of its stores a facelift.

Obviously McDonald's made this decision to renovate well before the Trump tax bill but they might have increased the number of restaurants to be renovated, or expedited the schedule based on the corporate tax cut from 35% to 21%.

The two McDonald's restaurants that I bike to on a regular basis were both recently renovated. I visited a third renovated McDonald's on a recent cross-country trip. At all three I spoke to the managers.

All three managers I spoke to were women; one was Hispanic; one was African-American (the favorite of the three, for me, but they were all incredible); the third was a millenial 25-ish (she was probably an assistant manager working the evening shift).

Apparently there were three options that local managers could choose from if their restaurant was chosen for renovation (it's possible, I don't know, for a manager to decline renovation if he/she wanted).

As an aside: at a fourth McDonald's that I visit weekly -- too far to bike but where I go when I take our older granddaughter for water polo practice -- has not yet been renovated. I don't know if it's scheduled to be renovated. About a month ago, the service at that restaurant deteriorated, literally overnight. I cannot articulate how "awful" the employees were -- they seemed to have been recruited from a local gang -- I am not making that up. It was really weird.

Then, all of a sudden, literally overnight, again, everything changed. All new employees, and the service was remarkable. I was amazed how this restaurant changed on a dime and suggests that corporate literally has the pulse of each of its restaurants, franchise or owned by the company. Just a guess.

Whatever.

Yesterday, I biked to the most recently renovated McDonald's in our area. I again spoke to the manager -- she was the African-American woman I really like. Of the three options she was given to choose from, she selected the one that maintained/increased the size of the footprint. It was a "huge" McDonald's. I don't know if it was bigger than the previous building (I don't think so) but its layout was so open, so airy, it seemed 50% bigger. PlayPlace was as nice as ever. It included a fairly large "tablet" for children to use.

For the adults, as noted, it was huge. I was alarmed however when I noted there were not power outlets to be seen. I looked everywhere, and the two power outlets that had been there prior to the renovation were gone. I assumed McDonald's had gone back to discouraging people like me from hanging around charging their phones/laptops.

And then I saw it -- how could I have missed it. Right in the middle was a long, narrow high table (the kind often seen at airports) with high stools, and then underneath the table, easily accessible, six power outlets on either side: a total of 12 power outlets. Very, very impressive.

Most McDonald's that I have visited that have the self-ordering kiosks, only have one double-sided kiosk. The one I visited yesterday: four double-sided kiosks.

McDonald's says they did not place the kiosks there to cut the number of employees. I don't know. Time will tell. I do think kiosks will increase the size of the average order (we've discussed this before) and the kiosks free up McDonald's employees to do other things, like clean up the tables, etc.

McDonald's continues to practically give their soda/fountain drinks away for free. A dollar for any size, and in some of their restaurants, the cups are easily accessible, making it likely that some "customers" may be simply coming in, grab a drink and not pay. Probably not, but one wonders.

"Senior coffee" is 50 cents at McDonald's but one has to often ask for it. I used to, but don't any more. The manager says that employees have to be careful assuming someone is a senior; she said that some folks are insulted if they are "identified" as a senior. I think McDonald's consider those over 55 as seniors. I don't know; I forgot to ask.

"Senor coffee" at McDonalds, 50 cents. A simply tall Pike Place at Starbucks: $2.11 (tax included).

One more thing, regarding renovation. A McDonald's restaurant is generally composed of four separate, physical spaces: the PlayPlace; the dining-in restaurant/ordering; the kitchen; and, drive-through. Managers were given the option how to proceed with renovation. One of the two restaurants I bike to elected to close completely and renovate all at once. The one I visited yesterday, the manager said she elected to stay open and do the renovation in stages. She saw how long the other restaurant was closed while the full renovation was done, and she didn't want to lose that much business. Instead, she kept the drive-through open while dining-in and PlayPlace were renovated, and once that was completed, opened the latter while the drive-through was being completed.

Very clever.

And they still serve breakfast all day long. Hash browns (150 calories with 9 grams fat/1.5 grams saturated) for a buck. A chocolate croissant (370 calories with 20 grams fat/12 grams saturated) at Starbucks for $2.98 before tax.

COP Temporarily Exits The Permian; Will Focus On The Eagle Ford /Bakken -- But Also Assets In Alaska -- July 5, 2018

Wow, look at this. Again, this is not an investment site.

I have no idea if lessons learned during the Bakken revolution influenced what is going on in Alaska, but one wonders. Look at this SeekingAlpha link regarding COP.

This is a rig targeting a conventional target.

From the screenshot, COP:

the increase in length to 28,000 feet is 40% greater than previously
1.4 of what = 28,000 feet? 20,000 feet?
1.4 x 20,000 = 28,000 feet

I don't know if that's TD (vertical + horizontal) or simply the length of the horizontal; it appears they are talking about the horizontal length.

using this method, COP hit a new record for highest initial production in Alaska, >10,000 bopd

Now compare with the Bakken:

TD: routinely 20,000 feet (vertical + horizontal)
horizontal alone: 9,000 feet
initial production, about 15,000 bbls/month, but CLR might have set a Bakken record with >80,000 bbls/month or about 2,500 bopd (an outlier right now)

From the SeekingAlpha article:

cost of producing Alaska conventional crude oil for COP: $30 / bbl

Also from the article, the writer reminds us that COP has recently announced that the company is "exiting" the Permian in the near term:

The plans to defer Permian growth are not that significant. However, the ability to move the capital budget to other basins is very significant. Many have wondered how oil production can grow when all those Permian challenges are front page news. The answer is that the capital simply shifts to areas without problems.

The Eagle Ford and the Bakken have become far more competitive now that the Permian production sells at a discount. Plus both have some idle pipeline capacity.

Management has plans for even more basins in the future. It is highly likely that there will not be an interruption in the unconventional growth plans at all. Some of these other basins already have pipeline capacity additions under construction and are planning for still more capacity. Therefore some of the basins may "never" suffer the challenges of the current Permian situation.

This is the second source that has said the Bakken has "some" idle pipeline capacity. And there's been a bit of a resurgence in CBR in the Bakken. Some have suggested that lack of takeaway capacity is the reason for the number of DUCs we see in the Bakken. That may be right, I don't know. But with refineries operating at 97%+ capacity, I wonder if it might be something else that accounts for DUC data.

Remember, John Kemp says we are in a period of "severe backwardation."

Reality Sucks -- July 5, 2018

TSLA slides another 3% on a day when the market is up 100 points. TSLA's high for the day, $314; it's 52-week high was $390. Great trading stock.

Disclaimer: this is not an investment site. Do not make any investment, financial, relationship, job, or travel decisions.

For the record: I really hope Tesla survives. I think it's a neat concept, a nice looking car, and American made (?). But the stock valuation certainly doesn't make sense to a lot of folks, but again, this is not an investment site.

Reported earlier: EU is considering cutting automobile tariffs. Now, breaking new: Merkel says she would support cutting automobile tariffs. Meanwhile, Canada has put a 10% tariff on US ketchup.

Unrelated to any of this, but to drive home the point that this is not an investment site. This is a music site disguised as something else.

In Spanish for Mr Maduro:

Asereje, Las Ketchup
For those who do not speak/comprehend Spanish, including me: las ketchup translates loosely to "ketchup."

From wiki:

In addition to the original Spanish version, the song exists in forms with Spanglish and Portuguese verses, although the nonsensical chorus is identical in all three versions. This song reached number-one in the United Kingdom, as well as 26 other countries worldwide. As of 2006, the song has sold over 7 million copies worldwide, making it one of the best-selling singles of all time.

Funny how things work out. I had a very, very, very mild speech impediment when I was four or five years old (I don't think I ever had a speech impediment; my mom was from Iowa and just didn't like the North Dakota inflection that I had acquired, having spent my first two years of life in Bismarck, before moving to Williston). Had that speech impediment not been corrected, I might have been able to sing Asereje just like those in the video.

Reality sucks. And you thought I was talking about TSLA. LOL.

My sexual orientation might have been at risk had my mom not affected the change.

Viva Venezuela: Feliz Cinco de Julio --

From wiki:

The Venezuelan Declaration of Independence (Cinco de Julio) is a statement adopted by a congress of Venezuelan provinces on July 5, 1811, through which Venezuelans made the decision to separate from the Spanish Crown in order to establish a new nation based on the premises of equality of individuals, abolition of censorship and dedication to freedom of expression, and to really screw up a great economy.

These principles were enshrined as a constitutional principal for the new nation and were radically opposed to the political, cultural, and social practices that had existed during three hundred years of colonization.

Part of that was not at the wiki site. See if you can guess which part.

The endonym for Venezuela is: Republica Bolivariana de Venezuela.

It's only a matter of time before the name change to: The People's Republic of Venezuela.

Endonym map here. At the link, click on the +/- to zoom in on the countries.

We Gotta Get Out of This Place, The Animals

100% Of Bakken Wells Coming Off Confidential List Go To DUC Status -- July 5, 2018

Three out of three:

Thursday, July 5, 2018:

33943, SI/NC, MRO, Sibyl USA 44-19TFH, Reunion Day, no production data,
33942, SI/NC, MRO, McDonald USA 44-19H, Reunion Day, no production data,

Wednesday, July 4, 2018:

31347, SI/NC, Crescent Point, CPEUSC Paopao 2-35-26-158N-100W, Dublin, no production data,

John Kemp: says we are in "severe backwardation." Oil prices projected to be lower six months from now.

WTI: essentially flat today; around $74. World "outages" offset by Saudi's promise to flood the global market with oil, according to President Trump.

Trump: Steel, Aluminum, Autos; Canada: Ketchup, T+35 -- July 5, 2018

The tariff war, T+35. Chinese tariffs yet to go into effect -- if I recall correctly.

President Trump is concerned about the US steel, aluminum, and automobile sector.

The Canadians are concerned about ketchup.

Now this, from CNBC from earlier this week: the EU is reportedly considering international talks to cut car tariffs. We've talked about this before -- why are there tariffs at all with regard to automobiles between the EU and North America -- it's practically one and the same. Maybe Mexico is a bit different, but certainly Germany, England, France, Italy, and the US should be competing on a "flat field." The CNBC story:

European officials are considering holding talks on a tariff-cutting deal between the world’s largest car exporters
Trump threatened to impose a 20 percent on all car imports from the EU sending shares (sic) -- I guess CNBC forgot to finish the story
the EU had threatened retaliatory tariffs
the FT link is here

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Fact-Checking CNBC

Section 5-151-95, The Hess BB-Chapin And BB-Federal Wells

Wells in this area:
34206, 2,954, Hess, BB-Chapin ..... 10; t12/18; cum 308K 1/21; cum 359K 6/22;
34205, 2,215, Hess, BB-Chapin ..... 9; t12/18; cum 158K 1/21; cum 176K 6/22;
34204, 2,971, Hess, BB-Chapin-151-95-0506H-8, Blue Buttes, t12/18; cum 223K 1/21; cum 242K 6/22;
34203, 3,137, Hess, BB-Chapin ..... 7; t12/18; cum 81K 1/21; (no typo); cum 93K 6/22;
34202, 3,050, Hess, BB-Chapin ..... 6; t12/18; cum 221K 1/21; cum 251K 6/22;
34201, 3,153, Hess, BB-Chapin ..... 5; t11/18; cum 219K 1/21; cum 250K 6/22;

32486, 1,376, Hess, BB-Chapin A-151-95-0403H-6, Blue Buttes, t5/17; cum 312K 1/21; 65 stages; 4.6 million lbs; cum 353k 6/2;
32485, 1,016, Hess, BB-Chapin A-151-95-0403H-5, Blue Buttes, t5/17; cum 208K 1/21; cum 224K 6/22;
32484, 1,213, Hess, BB-Chapin A-151-95-0403H-4, Blue Buttes, t5/17; cum 252K 1/21; cum 273K 6/22;
32483, 1,221, Hess, BB-Chapin A-151-95-0403H-3, Blue Buttes, t5/17; cum 205K 1/21; cum 219K 6/22;
32482, 1,120, Hess, BB-Chapin A-151-95-0403H-2, Blue Buttes, t5/17; cum 260K 1/21; cum 290K 6/22;

18271, 547, Hess, BB-Chapin A-151-95-0403H-1, Blue Buttes, t1/11; cum 247K 1/21; intermittent production after 5/19; cum 259K 6/22;

25057, 1,033, Hess, BB-Chapin 151-95-0506H-2, Blue Buttes, t12/13; cum 222K 1/21; cum 240K 6/22;
25058, 1,286, Hess, BB-Chapin 151-95-0506H-3, Blue Buttes, t12/13; cum 267K 1/21; off line 7/19; cum 284K 6/22;
25059, 1,086 Hess, BB-Chapin 151-95-0506H-4, Blue Buttes, t1/14; cum 260K 1/21; off line as of 8/19; intermittent production before then; cum 279K 6/22;

29159, 1,193, Hess, BB-Chapin 151-95-0403H-7, Blue Buttes, t7/15; cum 215K 1/21; off line as of 8/19; cum 230K 6/22;
29160, 980, Hess, BB-Chapin 151-95-0403H-8, Blue Buttes, t8/15; cum 175K 1/21; cum 188K 6/22;
29161, 1,051, Hess, BB-Chapin 151-95-0403H-9, Blue Buttes, t8/15; cum 182K 1/21; cum 194K 6/22;
29162, 1,001, Hess, BB-Chapin 151-95-0403H-10, Blue Buttes, t8/15; cum 199K 1/21; cum 208K 6/22;
29163, 809, Hess, BB-Chapin 151-95-0403H-1, Blue Buttes, t8/15; cum 232K 1/21; cum 258K 6/22;

30151, 1,851, Hess, BB-Federal A-151-95-0910H-6, Blue Buttes, t4/18; cum 265K 1/21; cum 299K 6/22;
30150, 1,747, Hess, BB-Federal A-151-95-0910H-5, Blue Buttes, t4/18; cum 309K 1/21; cum 343K 6/22;
30149, 1,632, Hess, BB-Federal A-151-95-0910H-4, Blue Buttes, t4/18; cum 290K 1/21; cum 324K 6/22;
30148, 463, Hess, BB-Federal A-151-95-0910H-3, Blue Buttes, t5/18; cum 178K 1/21; cum 194K 6/22;
30147, 1,343, Hess, BB-Federal A-151-95-0910H-2, Blue Buttes, t4/18; cum 329K 1/21; off line 8/19; back on line 10/19; cum 362K 6/22;

30031, 4,189, Hess, BB-Federal ..... 2; t6/19; cum 394K 1/21; cum 464K 6/22;
30030, 3,609, Hess, BB-Federal ..... 3; t6/19; cum 163K 1/21; cum 184K 6/22;
30029, 3,969, Hess, BB-Federal ..... 4; t6/19; cum 325K 1/21; cum 368K 6/22;
30028, 3,724, Hess, BB-Federal ..... 5; t6/19; cum 216K 1/21; cum 256K 6/22;
30027, 3,957, Hess, BB-Federal ..... 6; t6/19; cum 399K 1/21; cum 476K 6/22;

18105, 860, Hess, BB-Federal A-151-95-0910H-1, Blue Buttes, t2/10; cum 459K 1/21; off-line from 1/18 to 5/18; just brought back up on-line in 5/18; jump in production when brought back on line 5/18; but then appears to have problems 3/19; taken off line then with intermittent production; cum 495K 6/22; production update here;

From a reader earlier this week who commented on a huge pad:

This pad is a monster 18 wells, mostly federal. Most are on the confidential list. They’re using a side track lateral on this new well, too.

This is the pad the reader is talking about, I believe:

But, in addition, there are more BB-Chapin wells to the north:

The BB-Chapin wells and BB-Federal wells in section 5-151-95:

Brits Like Higher-CO2 Gasoline More Than Diesel, T+35 -- July 5, 2018

From The Financial Times, do as I say, not as I do:

UK sales of new diesel cars fell by 30 per cent in the first six months of this year, as buyers shunned the once-dominant fuel in favour of higher-CO2 petrol.

Diesel sales fell to 428,612 between January and June, compared to 613,985 in the same period a year earlier.

Petrol sales climbed 11 per cent to 812,535, taking the fuel’s market share to 61.8 per cent, compared to 52 per cent a year earlier.

Total UK car sales over the six months fell 6.3 per cent to 1.3m, as the market declined following years of strong growth. Sales in June slipped by 3.5 per cent, despite sales of new cars across Europe rising in the same month.

Chevron-exit? Chevron getting ready to exit all UK central North Sea assets? Link and data points:

Chevron's presence in the U.K. North Sea spans more than 50 years, according to the company’s website, which highlights that on December 26, 1964, Chevron's joint venture operator Amoseas (American Overseas Petroleum Ltd.) drilled its first North Sea well, 165 miles offshore the United Kingdom.

And now it's leaving.

Enbridge-exit? Enbridge agrees to sell its Canadian natural gas gathering and processing business
19 natural gas processing plants and liquids handling facilities --

total capacity 3.3 billion cf/day
3,550 km of natural gas gathering pipelines

Nineteen gas processing plants. Sounds like a lot. But the state of North Dakota, alone, has about 34 NG processing plants and by 2020 will have a total capacity of almostt 3 billion cf/day

The North Dakota Pipeline Authority tracks the natural gas plants in North Dakota. Link here: https://northdakotapipelines.com/gas-plants/.

California spot prices for electricity will spike today, link here:

NYC: that heat wave?

Demand For Trucks Soaring -- July 5, 2018

Keep on trucking: we've talked about this several times in the past year. Now, again, at The WSJ-- truck-factory backlogs soar on heavy demand for rgs.

Fleets ordered 42,200 trucks in June, more than double the number they bought in the same month a year ago, and 18.5% more than they ordered in May.

“We’re expecting in June that the backlog will rise to a level we haven’t seen since about 1999,” said Kenny Veith, president of Columbus, Ind.-based ACT. The backlog-to-build ratio was about 9.6 months at the end of May, he said, meaning most trucks ordered in June won’t arrive until the first half of 2019.

June is typically a weak month for truck orders. But the persistent robust demand for the heavy-duty vehicles used for long hauls meant carriers ordered new trucks at a seasonally adjusted rate of 492,000 vehicles in the first six months of this year—“the strongest six-month order period that we have in our database, which goes back to 1982,” Mr. Veith said.