Legacy Fund -- April, 2024, Deposits

Locator: 46866LEGACYFUND.

Legacy Fund

Monthly deposits.

Legacy Fund data here. 

North Dakota budget: probably easiest to read is at Ballotpedia.

North Dakota state office of management and budget.

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The Book Page 

I'm probably the only one that doesn't know / didn't know the meaning / origin of "Manitou" -- that is, until tonight. 

Wow, how many times have I see that word, how long have I known that word, or variations thereof, how many times have I mentioned the Manitou oil field on the blog, and hard-to-believe, I've never thought of looking up the word?

Then tonight, while reading "Rip Van Winkle" in The Legend of Sleepy Hollow and Other Stories or, the Sketch Book of Geoffrey Crayon, Gent., Washington Irving, introduction by Alice Hoffman, c. 2001.

"Rip Van Winkle" was the third story in the "anthology," and in an appendix to the story as it were, a posthumous note by Diedrich Knickerbocker, mentioned "Manitou," p. 41. While discussing the Catskill or Kaatsberg mountains along the Hudson River north of NYC, Knicerbocker: 

"In old times say the Indian traditions, there was a kind of Manitou or Spirit, who kept about the wildest recesses of the Catskill mountains, and took a mischievous pleasure in wreaking all kinds of evils and vexations upon the red men."

Pretty cool, huh?

One can confirm the meaning of "manitou" by looking it up, but yes, indeed, it is an old Algonquin word for a specific spirit living in the geographical location as noted.

I've had the book on my shelves for twenty years, I suppose, but only recently had an interest in reading about Washington Irving and this stories again. 

"With "Rip Van Winkle," and the "Sketch Book," Washington Irving is believed by many to have created the genre of the short story in America, mixing superstition and history, the European tradition of fairy tales and folktales, and local Indian legends." -- Alice Hoffman.

"Rip Van Winkle" was published in 1819. Interestingly, these stories of superstition and ghosts were a big deal in England at the time. Exhibit A: Emily Brontë's Wuthering Heights was published in 1847. More contemporaneously, Mary Shelley's Frankenstein was published in 1818.

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An Allegory

Intel Earnings; CPUs, GPUs, FPGAs -- April 25, 2024

Locator: 47075TECH.

Updates

June 2, 2024: major update, Nvidia "Rubin." Apple's M4.

Original Post

Chips, link here, to Barron's: 

Intel earnings:

• morning after earnings release: INTC drops 10%;
• guidance was bad
• missed whisper numbers
• whisper numbers;
• CNBC: also, here;
  

But look at this guidance:

But for me, an investor, I really don't know what business Intel is in any more and with whom are they competing? Design, fabricators, CPUs, GPUs, memory; smart phones, laptops ; with whom have they partnered?

Look at ticker, after market:

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Tech Chips

Tech is tracked here.

Three major "chips": CPUs, GPUs, and memory.

Qualcomm and  Qualcomm Snapdragon modems.

Maybe The Energy Sector Ain't So Bad -- April 25, 2024

Locator: 47074INV.

Link here. 

Maybe the energy sector isn't so bad. Was last year (and the years during the Covid lockdown) outliers?

5-4-3: Five New Permits; Four DUCs Reported As Completed; Three Permits Renewed -- April 25, 2024

Locator: 47073B.

Stock of the day:

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Back to the Bakken

Active rigs: 41.

WTI: $83.89.

Five new permits, #40696 - #40700, inclusive:

• Operators: Zavanna (2); Hess (3)
• Fields: Stockyard Creek (Williams); Manitou (Mountrail)
• Comments:
• Hess has permits for three EN-Kiesel wells, SESW 19-155-94,
• to be sited 543 FSL and between 2485 FWL and 2419 FWL;
• Zavanna has permits for two Jersey wells, NWSW 22-154-99, 
• both to be sited 616 FWL with one to be sited 1552 FSl and the other 1582 FSL

Three permits renewed:

• CLR: three Chloe permits, SWSE 20-156-99, East Fork, Williams County;

Four producing wells (DUCs) reported as completed:

• 37929, n/d, BR, Parrish 3A TFH,
• 37931, n/d, BR, Parrish 3B MBH,
• 37933, n/d, BR, Parrish 4A MBH,
• 37935, n/d, BR, Boxer 3B MBH,

Rambling On The Market Today -- April 25, 2024

Locator: 47073INV.

BREAKING: Alphabet surges after earnings beat, first-ever dividend. Folks might want to prepare for tomorrow; after-hour tech trading reacting to the news.

I'm traveling so I'm not watching CNBC live on television.

I saw early this morning that the Dow dropped 300+ points.

I checked in after the close: the Dow dropped by more than 370 points.

The NASDAQ closed down 101 points, and yet this was one of my best days on the market in the past few weeks. Pleasantly surprised. I'm not going to look through my portfolio to understand why. I don't want to jinx things or be dismayed. LOL.

I made my trades earlier today and have one more huge trade tomorrow morning at the market open.

Some headlines from CNBC webpage and observations:

• F: I still have to go back and blog about Ford. Very strange -- for lack of a better word -- analyst response to Ford's 1Q24 report.
• tech:
• MSFT cloud growth accelerates on back of AI push
• SNAP shares soar by 25% -- sorry Josh -- his kids were correct
• INTC: fell aftr providing weak forecast for the current quarter; still down't know what business it's in -- fell almost 2%
• holy mackerel -- after hours, it got even worse; INTC droppe over 8% in after-hour trading
• compare with AVGO: up $38 during the day; up another $12 after hours
• QCOM: flat
• NVDA: up %30 during the day; up another $16 after hours
• AMD: up 2% during the day; up another 1% after hours
• JPM: back to "stagflation" 
• becomes a stock-picker's market
• perhaps stagflation for the bankers; not for tech
• META: tumbles 10% on weak guidance and CEO's distaste for all the money wasted by his company
• Southwest Airline's "open seating" business plan has been a debacle
• fliers hate it;
• rivals have touted high revenue growth for premium seating
  

Speaking of F, what did the other EV companies do:

• TSLA: up nicely during the day and after hours
• RIVN: down 4% during the day
• GM: up slightly;

I don't know what the analysts and talking heads are saying; why they seem to be wringing their hands, but scrolling through CNBC and Yahoo!Finance -- wow, the news is incredible, it seems, for investors.

Yahoo!Finance has an article suggesting "no landing" vs a "soft landing." I've called it a "touch and go" for at least six months:

• we'll touch an inflation low; the Feds will call it "great" -- close enough to 2% even if it's not exactly 2%;
• and then the economy takes off, as in a "touch and go."

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Disclaimer -- Briefly

Reminder: I am inappropriately exuberant about the US economy and the US market, I am also inappropriately exuberant about all things Apple.

See disclaimer. This is not an investment site.

Disclaimer: this is not an investment site. Do not make any investment, financial, job, career, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here. 

All my posts are done quickly: there will be content and typographical errors. If anything on any of my posts is important to you, go to the source. If/when I find typographical / content errors, I will correct them. 

Again, all my posts are done quickly. There will be typographical and content errors in all my posts. If any of my posts are important to you, go to the source.

Reminder: I am inappropriately exuberant about the US economy and the US market, I am also inappropriately exuberant about all things Apple.

US Tallest Skyscraper -- Update -- Oklahoma City -- April 25, 2024

Locator: 47071ARCHIVES.

Google tallest skycraper us oklahoma city

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The Book Page

The World Is Flat: A Brief History of the Twenty-First Century, THomas L. Friedman, c. 2005.

Norman Mailer: A Double Life, J. Michael Lennon, c. 2013.

• 763 pages
• 133 page, notes
• 7 pages, selected biography
• 30 pages, index

WTI Holding Steady -- April 25, 2024

Locator: 47069B. 

Personal investing: 

• raised cash by selling MCD, MRVL. Remain long-term holdings. Will re-establish positions in MCD, MRVL with portfolio dividends in June.
• added to CAT position -- by rule.
  
• UNP: up $10/share today; up 4.6%. No change in position; currently overweight.
  
• no recommendation; see disclaimers.
  

CAT: link here.

Energy: link here.

US crude oil record exports, link here.

TipRanks, link here. best semiconductor chip (of the three) to buy on a dip -- AMSL, AMT, or MU?

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Back to the Bakken

WTI: $82.93.

Friday, April 26, 2024: 54 for the month; 54 for the quarter, 253 for the year
None.

Thursday, April 25, 2024: 54 for the month; 54 for the quarter, 253 for the year
37519, conf, BR, Mazama 2B MBH,

RBN Energy: Sentinel Midstream's Texas GulfLink emerges as serious contender in export terminal race. Archived.

In the race to build the next deepwater crude oil export terminal in the Gulf of Mexico, Sentinel Midstream’s proposed Texas GulfLink (TGL) is currently in second place in the regulatory race, behind only Enterprise’s Sea Port Oil Terminal (SPOT) — and seems to be emerging as a serious contender. The plan offers some compelling attributes, including Sentinel’s status as an independent midstream player and plenty of pipeline access to crude oil volumes in the Permian and elsewhere. In today’s RBN blog, we turn our attention to TGL and what it brings to the table.

GDPNow: 2.7 — Previous, 2.9 — April 24, 2024

Locator: 470628GDP.

GDPNow had predicted a 1Q24 GDP in range of 2.5+%.

First reading came in at 1.6%. 

Wouldn't this be in line with a "soft landing"?  Beats the alternative.

Market gave us a great buying opportunity. 

No complaints from me. 

By this time next week, the number will have been forgotten.

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Disclaimer -- Briefly

Reminder: I am inappropriately exuberant about the US economy and the US market, I am also inappropriately exuberant about all things Apple.

See disclaimer. This is not an investment site.

Disclaimer: this is not an investment site. Do not make any investment, financial, job, career, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here. 

All my posts are done quickly: there will be content and typographical errors. If anything on any of my posts is important to you, go to the source. If/when I find typographical / content errors, I will correct them. 

Again, all my posts are done quickly. There will be typographical and content errors in all my posts. If any of my posts are important to you, go to the source.

Reminder: I am inappropriately exuberant about the US economy and the US market, I am also inappropriately exuberant about all things Apple.

F: A Most Interesting Report -- April 24, 2024

Locator: 470627FORD.

EVs are tracked here.

Link here.

Data points and comments from the article:

• Ford's traditional business, known as Ford Blue, reported adjusted earnings that were down 66% compared to a year earlier 
• Ford has faced years of inflated warranty costs, which have affected its earnings
• sales of Ford Motor trucks and other commercial vehicles led the automaker to beat Wall Street’s earnings estimates for the first quarter, offsetting losses of its electric vehicles.
• the automaker now expects to generate adjusted free cash flow of $6.5 billion to $7.5 billion, up from a previous outlook of $6 billion to $7 billion. 
• its forecast for capital expenditures is now $8 billion to $9 billion, narrower than the $8 billion to $9.5 billion range it originally estimated.
• EPS: 49 cents adjusted vs 42 cents expected;
• automotive revenue: $39.89 billion vs $40.10 billion expected 
• Ford’s overall revenue for the first quarter, including its credit business, increased about 3% year over year to $42.78 billion. 
• net income for the period was $1.33 billion, or 33 cents per share, compared with $1.76 billion, or 44 cents, a year earlier. 
• adjusted EBIT declined 18% year over year to $2.76 billion, or 49 cents per share.

This report seems it was written by Phil Le Beau.

Below is the story of Ford's EV business as reported by CNN: link here.

From the linked article: 

Ford’s electric vehicle unit reported that losses soared in the first quarter to $1.3 billion, or $132,000 for each of the 10,000 vehicles it sold in the first three months of the year, helping to drag down earnings for the company overall.

Ford, like most automakers, has announced plans to shift from traditional gas-powered vehicles to EVs in coming years. But it is the only traditional automaker to break out results of its retail EV sales. And the results it reported Wednesday show another sign of the profit pressures on the EV business at Ford and other automakers.

The EV unit, which Ford calls Model e, sold 10,000 vehicles in the quarter, down 20% from the number it sold a year earlier. And its revenue plunged 84% to about $100 million, which Ford attributed mostly to price cuts for EVs across the industry. That resulted in the $1.3 billion loss before interest and taxes (EBIT), and the massive per-vehicle loss in the Model e unit.

The losses go far beyond the cost of building and selling those 10,000 cars, according to Ford. Instead the losses include hundreds of millions being spent on research and development of the next generation of EVs for Ford. Those investments are years away from paying off.

And that means this is not the end of the losses in the unit - Ford said it expects Model e will have EBIT losses of $5 billion for the full year.

The company said it is its “intention” to be have EV pricing cover the actual costs of building each EV, rather than covering all the research and development costs, within the next 12 months. But a price war among EVs for about a year and a half has made even that measure of profitability very difficult said Ford CFO John Lawler. He said while Ford has removed about $5,000 in cost on each Mustang Mach-E, “revenue is dropping faster than we can take out the cost.”

In 2023, Ford Model e reported a full-year EBIT loss of $4.7 billion on sales of 116,000 EVs, or an average of $40,525 per vehicle, just more than a third of the first quarter loss.