Friday Night -- Whoo-Hoo! April 26, 2024

Locator: 46875B.

Market at the close:

For the archives -- what's going on that affected the market today:

• some tech stocks reported great earnings; GOOG announces a dividend for the first time;
• personal consumption expenditures "price index" seems to be plateauing in the 2.8 - 3.0% range; possibly increasing; resilient American economy (Americans keep spending)
  
• GDP estimate, GDPNow, for 2Q24, jumped from 1.6% actual 1Q24 to 3.9% estimate 2Q24
• relatively quiet in the Mideast; though more and more it appears that Israel is yet to move into southern Palestine (Rafah) to clear out Hamas
• analysts pretty much agree that any "rate cut" in 2024 is getting less and less likely

***********************************
Back to the Bakken

WTI: $83.85.

Active rigs: 40.

Two new permits, #40701 and #40702:

• Operator: Grayson Mill
• Field: South Tobacco Garden (McKenzie)
• Comments:
• Grayson Mill has permits for two Skaar wells, NWNE 15-150-99; 
• both to be sited 1519 FEL with one sited 447 FNL and the other 347 FNL

Eight permits renewed:

• CLR: eight McClintock permits, NENE 24-156-95 and SESW 13-156-95, Pleasant Valley, Williams County;

Four producing wells (DUCs) reported to be completed:

• 37921, n/d, BR, Parrish 2B TFH,
• 39908, 668, Oasis, Andrews Federal 5304 12-24 2B,
• 39909, 98, Oasis, Andrews Federal 5304 12-24 3B,
• 39910, 98, Oasis, Andrews Federal 5304 12-24 4BX,

Week 17: April 22, 2024 -- April 28, 2024

Locator: 46874TOPSTORIES.

Top story:

• Peace breaks out in the Middle East 
• No one seems to notice
  

Top international non-energy story:

• Ukraine
• Additional US money for Ukraine, Israel
  

Top international energy story:

• 
  

Top national non-energy story: 

• Trump criminal trial has begun
• US personal income at an all-time high.
  

Top national energy story:

• WTI trading in narrow range, $82 - $84
  

Focus on fracking: link here.

Top North Dakota non-energy story:

• 
  

Top North Dakota energy story:

• 
  

Geoff Simon's quick connects: link here.

*************************************
Market

Market at the close:

For the archives -- what's going on that affected the market today:

• some tech stocks reported great earnings; GOOG announces a dividend for the first time;
• personal consumption expenditures "index" seems to be plateauing in the 2.8 - 3.0% range; possibly increasing
  
• GDP estimate, GDPNow, for 2Q24, jumped from 1.6% actual 1Q24 to 3.9% estimate 2Q24
• relatively quiet in the Mideast; though more and more it appears that Israel is yet to move into southern Palestine (Rafah) to clear out Hamas
• analysts pretty much agree that any "rate cut" in 2024 is getting less and less likely

Inflation -- April 26, 2024

Locator: 46873INFLATION.

With regard to the inflation report this morning, from Carl Q. 

Posted earlier:

Overview:

• inflation: OMG --- headlines scary; facts anything but scary
  
• just before the announcement; Dow up nicely (pre-market)
• right after the announcement, Dow drops (pre-market)
• by end of today, all will be forgotten
• probably by noon, all will be forgotten

 As noted, by noon all was forgotten:

Intel -- INTC -- April 26, 2024

Locator: 46872TECH.

The morning after, it keeps getting worse. When you lose CNBC .... link here. Intel. INTC.

Posted earlier:

Intel earnings:

• morning after earnings release: INTC drops 10%;
• guidance was bad
• missed whisper numbers
• whisper numbers;
• CNBC: also, here;
  

But look at this guidance:

But for me, an investor, I really don't know what business Intel is in any more and with whom are they competing? Design, fabricators, CPUs, GPUs, memory; smart phones, laptops ; with whom have they partnered?

Look at ticker, after market:

******************************
The Book Page

I can't recall for sure. I thought I had seen this book, perhaps even read much of it recently. It came out in the late 2023. But I honestly don't recall.

I will add it to my 2023-2024 winter reading program. It will be the last book so added and now I will start my 2024 summer reading program.

Link here.

The book:

The Princes in the Tower, Philippa Langley, c. 2023.

Can It Get Any Worse? PEMEX Net Profit Plummets 92% — 1Q24

Locator: 46871MEXICO.

Link here.

US Personal Income At All-Time High -- April 26, 2024

Locator: 46870ECON.

Link here.

Link here. 

Market at mid-morning:

Thank goodness, CVX, XOM spoiled the party. Otherwise, the euphoria would have been uncontrollable.

Can It Get Any Worse? Worse Day On Record? Hertz Global -- Aptil 26, 2024

Locator: 46870EVS.

EVs: more bad news. This was a $30-stock at one time. My hunch: Phil Le Beau won't be reporting this story.

 

Wow! Breaking News Now, 2Q24: 3.9% Forecast. GDPNow — April 26, 2024

Locator: 46869ECON.

Inflation to grind higher. No longer “sticky” at 2.8%.

Fed rate: talk will turn to higher rates. 

Link here.

**************************
Hess: 1Q24

Link here.

Are folks paying attention? Look at the y/y increase in net income. Wow.

Let's see:

• production, y/y: 27%.
• income, y/y: 146% (no typo)

**************************
An Apple Misstep?

There are certainly indications that Apple / Tim Cook misstepped with regard to memory upgrades. Tim's logic may have protected margins but probably cost the company bragging rights. I doubt the average consumer even paid attention but Apple's policy with regard to memory upgrades was certainly not helpful. One gets the feeling Tim hates paying thirty-party vendors when he can get same/better results with other methods.

********************
Personal Investing

No change in strategic investment plan.

Am closing out my KMI position over next few week to simply streamline my portfolio; will continue to build CHRD position.

No recommendation. See disclaimers.

For extended family member concerned about AAPL: today would be another great day to sell some shares in APPL. Comment made for one single individual.

Clearing Off The Desk -- April 26, 2024

Locator: 46868B.

Clearing the desk.

EVs: more bad news.

Economy:

• US GDP, Carl Q: on top of the world. And not just by a little, but a lot
• but even better, look at the trends
• up: US, India
• down a lot: Japan, EU, UK
• down, but perhaps just taking a breather, recession? China
• but that EU, UK drop is stunning -- because the lines crossed in 2012, the stunning drop is easily missed
• but EU, UK look dreadful; Why? Energy and regulations
• at least two many EU/UK energy companies are looking to get listed on NYSE; they've had enough
• US spending: on a tear -- Carl Q
• the last two months were the strongest personal spending growth numbers in over a year! Link here.
• inflation: OMG! Link here.
• but wait, there's more -- one hour after inflation numbers were released, all was forgotten
• DOW up 60 points in pre-market despite Big Oil underf performing
• NASDAQ surges -- again pre-market

Energy:

• cloudy weather for solar energy in the US: link here.
• but worse, US solar panel manufacturers want US policies to stop China dumping

Southern surge: as expected, San Diego is now the top border region for migrant arrivals; link here;

• absolutely predictable;
• my only comment: why did it take so long?

CHIPS Act: link here.

• the social media comments: talk about a lot of folks that simply don't get it

Energy:

• EIA: US natural gas-fired electricity generation consistently increased in 2022 and 2023;
• link here;
• AI revolution in the US: energy needs will surge

Personal investing:

• I post my "investment buckets" as they change
• in my Big Pharma bucket, I have only one stock: ABBV
• today; at open, ABBV falls almost 3%

TGIF -- April 26, 2024

Locator: 46867B.

Overview:

• earnings:
• tech did great: MSFT, GOOG
• Big Oil mixed: XOM, CVX;
• inflation: OMG --- headlines scary; facts anything but scary
  
• just before the announcement; Dow up nicely (pre-market)
• right after the announcement, Dow drops (pre-market)
• by end of today, all will be forgotten
• probably by noon, all will be forgotten
  
• markets
• NASDAQ should have a great day
• Dow to grind higher
• economy, inflation, Fed rates, consumer spending
  
• yes, Virginia, higher for longer; there will be no Santa Claus rally this year
• consumer spending is crazy; no way this kind of spending will result in lower inflation
• indications: inflation no longer "sticky," but gradually will actually grind higher
• inflation headlines: will gradually see less "sticky" and more "grind higher"
• "sticky" would be nice; but now it's gonna be "inflation is grinding higher" 
• sticky: Fed holds rates until next year
• 'inflation grinds higher: Fed starts talking about raising rates
  
• WMT CEO: says grocery prices ares going in the right direction
• Comment: as I go through one doze news sources and read a gazillion headlines and almost as many ledes, I am really, really excited abou the US economy and investing
• then I read commends on social media in reply to those headlines and ledes, and the pessimism and negativity is truly amazing;
• it's always been there, nothing new, but, wow, how do these folks get through life
• their glasses are always half empty; mine? Always half full
• I think that's why I like Carl Q's tweets -- he seems to be "grounded" but yet seems optimistic

*****************************
Back to the Bakken

WTI: $84.38.

Sunday, April 28, 2024: 56 for the month; 56 for the quarter, 255 for the year
39523, conf, Kraken, Blue 2-35-26-2H,
37520, conf, BR, Mazama 2C UTFH,

Saturday, April 27, 2024: 54 for the month; 54 for the quarter, 253 for the year
None.

Friday, April 26, 2024: 54 for the month; 54 for the quarter, 253 for the year
None.

RBN Energy: evolving LNG market could mean major changes for China's big three.

China regained its place as the world’s largest LNG importer in 2023, a title it lost in 2022 due to COVID-related shutdowns. Given that China only started importing LNG in 2006, the country’s demand growth — imports last year totaled 71.3 million metric tons (~9.5 Bcf/d), just under 18% of globally traded demand — can only be described as spectacular. But this unprecedented growth story is undergoing fundamental changes which are likely to result in major impacts to LNG commerce not only in China but in the Far East and possibly beyond. In today’s RBN blog, we look at some of these changes and ask how the Big Three national oil companies (NOCs) — CNOOC, PetroChina and Sinopec — could change their business models as smaller provincial gas utility buyers pursue their own LNG imports.