Ted Cruz Wins Decisively In Texas -- Wisconsin Puts Trump Over 270 Electoral Votes -- November 5, 2024

Locator: 48716POLITICS.

 Updates

4:31 a.m. CDT, November 6, 2024: Wisconsin votes all counted ... the margin has narrowed to 30,000. And now, the Democrat is leading the US Senate race. Trump has won! Wisconsin put him over the top. MSNBC has just gone nuts! Wow! Trump, 276; Harris 219. A few states yet to be called. MSNBC has absolutely gone nuts. More and more it looks like Biden might have won had he stayed on the ticket. There's going to be a lot of soul-searching with regard to this. "That Iowa poll" -- completely fraudulent. Trump took Iowa by an even larger margin.

4:07 a.m. CDT, November 6, 2024: it's very possible that Harris could win Wisconsin when the Milwaukee absentee votes are counted. It's always amazing how these late votes can dramatically change things.

3:55 a.m. CDT, November 6, 2024: with 86% of votes counted nationally, Trump with 70 million votes, and Harris with 64 million voltes. Trump wins the popular vote --- despite California, New York, and New Jersey.

3:53 a.m. CDT, November 6, 2024: Kamala Harris did not win one battleground state. Possibly one exception, Virginia, but Virginia was not considered a battleground state by most folks.

3:51 a.m. CDT, November 6, 2024: it's very possible Biden would have won! Wow, you know that Biden will believe that, whether it's true or not. But comparing how Biden did against Trump four years ago and how Harris did this year ... it's incredible. Those numbers alone, Biden would likely have won this year.That's how badly Harris did compared to Biden four years ago.

3:43 a.m. CDT, November 6, 2024: it is expected that the final votes will finally be counted in Milwaukee within the next hour. It's almost impossible for Trump to lose even when the Milwaukee votes come in, but this is the really, really bad news -- it's likely that the Republican candidate for US Senate will lose and the GOP won't hold an absolutely majority in the US Senate. There's about 100,000 votes from Milwaukee -- "all" votes are counted except for Milwaukee's 100,000 votes --

54,769 votes separated Hovde from Baldwin. Can Baldwin take 60% of the Milwaukee votes?

*****************************
Original Post

8:42 p.m. CDT:

Betting: 64% chance that Trump declares victory before midnight. Hannity has already called it on Fox. Hannity's argument is fairly sound. 

9:27 p.m. CDT:

2:12 a.m., CDT, November 6, 2024: when will Kamala Harris concede?

2:16 a.m. CDT, November 6, 2024:

2:42 a.m. CDT, November 6, 2024:

3:22 a.m. CDT, November 6, 2024:

Observations:

• Reminder: IRA was all about green energy. 
• Nancy Pelosi lived long enough to see Trump be re-elected.  
• the future of those non-MAGA Republicans are now in limbo. They belong to no party.
• Democrat leadership? Name current leadership. Biden, Harris, Clinton, Obama out. 
  
• Clinton: Americans like "strong though wrong"; not "weak but right."
  
• all those concerns about a contested election.
  
• time for lots of folks to reflect
• EVs
• DEI
• the woke culture
• big loser: Michael Moore. James Cargill.
  
• the legacy news networks
• when will ABC News officially call "it" for Trump? 
• two biggest issues: the southern border and immigration
• did Kamala Harris ever visit the border?
  
• Donna Brazile: Democratic Party strategist -- sort of encapsulates the problem.
  
• the pollsters; perhaps it wasn't the pollsters but rather how the elites interpreted the polls?
  
• Trump won the popular vote; forget the electoral college; he won the popular vote! 
• 69 million vs 65 million
  
• Fox News
• Kamala Harris gets to certify Trump's win in  US Congress
• teachable moment for the Dems to move back to the center
• it was Kamala Harris' race to lose; had she been able to articulate her position on almost any issue, the race might have been different
• how many US Supreme Court justices might he nominate?
• JD Vance is 39 years old
• Harris not picking a Pennsylvania running mate
• legacy news networks concerned MAGA folks wouldn't accept a Harris win; now, will the Dems accept a MAGA win?
• the number of false stories presented night-after-night on national news for the past year; 
• the race not nearly as close as pollsters suggested;
• wow, the analysts on ABC News simply don't get it
  
• Montana: how can it take so long to count votes in a state like Montana?
• considering how close so many races were, almost any mainstream Democrat could have done better than Harris; what were the Dems thinking? An open primary now looks pretty important.
• of the four major legacy news networks (ABC, CBS, NBC, Fox) only Fox has called the race with 277 electoral votes for Trump; the others still have Trump four electoral votes short at 266 at 4:10 a.m. November 6, 2024. 
• a lot of folks will watch The View today.
• a year from now, where will Kamala Harris be?
• did Trump win every swing state?
• most incredible comeback in political history?
  

Again, MRO Reporting Some Huge DUCs -- November 5, 2024

Locator: 48715B.

Older wells are temporarily off line.

Two producing wells (DUCs) were reported as completed in today's daily activity report:

• 37837, 6,086, MRO, Lillian USA 24-33H, Reunion Bay, Mountrail, t7/24; cum 98K 9/24;

Pool	Date	Days	BBLS Oil	Runs	BBLS Water	MCF Prod	MCF Sold	Vent/Flare
BAKKEN	9-2024	30	22315	22344	29453	36075	35984	12
BAKKEN	8-2024	30	44150	44217	36944	47442	47220	138
BAKKEN	7-2024	9	31642	31511	26849	31513	29750	1650

• 37838, 4,421, MRO, Dawson USA 24-33TFH, Reunion Bay, Mountrail, t7/24; cum 87K 9/24;

Pool	Date	Days	BBLS Oil	Runs	BBLS Water	MCF Prod	MCF Sold	Vent/Flare
BAKKEN	9-2024	30	20102	20122	24864	40012	39911	13
BAKKEN	8-2024	29	35644	35723	40439	57928	57650	173
BAKKEN	7-2024	14	31437	31307	41228	30567	28863	1595

The wells, MRO - B-2D-G-2L-O, on that mega-pad:

• 37834, loc, MRO, Betty Lou USA 14-33TFH, Reunion Bay, a big well;
  
• 37835, loc, MRO, Laverne USA 14-33H, Reunion Bay, a big well;
  
• 37836, loc, MRO, Duane USA 24-33TFH, Reunion Bay, a big well;
  
• 37837, 6,086, MRO, Lillian USA 24-33H, Reunion Bay, Mountrail,
• 37838, 4,421, MRO, Dawson USA 24-33TFH, Reunion Bay, Mountrail,
• 37839, loc, MRO, Gladheim USA 34-33H, Reunion Bay, a big well;
  
• 37840, loc, MRO, Olive USA 34-33TFH, Reunion Bay, producing nicely;
• 40376, Becker USA 34-32TFH, Reunion Bay, Mountrail, producing nicely;
  
• 40377, Hultberg USA 44-32H, Reunion Bay, Mountrail, producing nicely; a huge well;
• 40378, Humble USA 44-32TFH, Reunion Bay, Mountrail, a nice well;
  
• 40379, Spaulding USA 44-32H, Reunion Bay, Mountrail, producing nicely; a huge well;
• 40380, Thelma USA 14-33TFH, Reunion Bay, Mountrail, producing nicely; a huge well;
• 40400, Donkin USA 14-33H, Reunion Bay, Mountrail, producing nicely; a huge well;

Examples:

37834:

Pool	Date	Days	BBLS Oil	Runs	BBLS Water	MCF Prod	MCF Sold	Vent/Flare
BAKKEN	9-2024	29	30087	30135	37300	33172	33091	10
BAKKEN	8-2024	28	66085	65990	68997	64906	64605	188

37835:

Pool	Date	Days	BBLS Oil	Runs	BBLS Water	MCF Prod	MCF Sold	Vent/Flare
BAKKEN	9-2024	30	28370	28439	26205	45770	45655	15
BAKKEN	8-2024	29	78490	78444	57256	102421	101935	303
BAKKEN	7-2024	7	16168	16101	13574	19357	18252	1034

 40377:

Pool	Date	Days	BBLS Oil	Runs	BBLS Water	MCF Prod	MCF Sold	Vent/Flare
BAKKEN	9-2024	29	52194	52120	48985	64968	64809	20
BAKKEN	8-2024	5	4790	4783	9750	6246	6217	18

40379:

Pool	Date	Days	BBLS Oil	Runs	BBLS Water	MCF Prod	MCF Sold	Vent/Flare
BAKKEN	9-2024	28	56203	56178	29981	46401	46291	14
BAKKEN	8-2024	16	42831	42769	34216	40422	40235	117

The maps:

MPC -- 3Q24 Earnings

Locator: 48714MPC.

Link here. 

Marathon Petroleum Corp beat the analyst consensus for its third-quarter earnings by a mile, despite the expected slump in profits due to plunging refining margins.

All U.S. refiners were expected to report much lower profits for the third quarter compared to a year earlier, as refining margins slumped to multi-year lows amid tepid fuel demand and increased global fuel supply.

On Tuesday, Marathon Petroleum joined the other major U.S. refiners, Valero Energy and Phillips 66, in reporting better-than-expected Q3 earnings even if profits significantly lagged last year’s record results.

NOG: 3Q24 Highlights

Locator: 48713NOG.

Link here.

Devon Earnings -- 3Q24

Locator: 48712B.

Grayson Mill acquisition closed. 

*******************************
The Daily Bakken Report

WTI: $72.12.

Active rigs: 38.

Six new permits, #41310 - #41315 , inclusive.

• Operators: CLR (2); Whiting (2); Kraken, WGO Resources.
• Fields: West Capa (Williams); Glass Bluff (McKenzie); Bear Butte (McKenzie); and, a wildcat, Golden Valley County.
• Comments:
• WGO Resources has a permit for a Moe well, a wildcat, NWSW 34-140-104;
• to be sited 2005 FSL and 960 FWL.
• Kraken has a permit for a Bubba well, NENE 23-148-101, 
• to be sited 425 FNL and 468 FEL.
• Whiting has permits for two Dobias wells, SESE 32-152-103, 
• to be sited 878 FSL and 490FEL; and, 845 FSL and 490FEL.
• CLR has permits for a Kenneth well, and a Helen well, NWSE 8-145-96, 
• to be sited 1755 FSL and 1661 FEL and 1755 FSL and 1693 FEL.

Two permits were canceled:

• Hunt Oil: two Patten permits, Mountrail County.

Seven producing wells (DUCs) were reported as completed:

• 37837, 6,086, MRO, Lillian USA 24-33H, Mountrail,
• 37838, 4,421, MRO, Dawson USA 24-33TFH, Mountrail,
• 40477, 668, CLR, Clover 5-10H, Dunn County,
• 40479, 1,701, CLR, Roadrunner 5-15H, Dunn County,
• 40480, 1,570, CLR, Roadrunner 6-15H, Dunn County,
• 40481, 1,275, CLR, Roadrunner 7-15H, Dunn County,
• 40491, 869, Oasis, Lee N 52-1 21-5 2B, McKenzie County,

Add Two More Bailey Oil Field Permits To MRO's Bakken Inventory -- So Much Work Left To Be Done -- November 4, 2024

Locator: 48711MRO.

The new permits:

• 41301, loc, MRO, Sunell 11-17H, NENE 18-145-93, Dunn County;
• 41302, loc, MRO, Bjorge 41-18H, NENE 18-145-93, Dunn County;

Others this past year (the list may not be complete; updated November 15, 2024):

• 41345, Georgia 14-8H,
• 41344, Imogene USA 44-7H,
• 41343, Sattier USA 34-7H,

• 41342, Jennie USA 34-7H,
• 41341, Wayne 24-7H,
• 41340, Townsend 24-7H,
• 41339, Mimee 14-TFJ (sic),
• 41338, Bailey 14-7H,

• 41266, conf/drl, MRO, Sailer 44-9H, Bailey, SWSW 9-145-93; npd;
• 41265, conf/drl, MRO, Odenborg 41-16H, Lake Ilo, SWSW 9-145-93; npd;
• 41264, conf/loc, MRO, Nadine 11-16H, Bailey, SWSW 9-145-93; npd;
• 41263, conf/loc, MRO, Soule 44-8H, Bailey, SWSW 9-145-93; npd;
• 41262, conf/loc, MRO, Macy 41-17H, Bailey, SWSW 9-145-93; npd;

• 41218, conf/loc, MRO, Hannifan 34-9H, Bailey, SWSW 9-145-93; npd;
• 41217, conf/drl, MRO, Bjarne 31-16H, Lake Ilo, SWSW 9-145-93; npd;
• 41216, conf/drl, MRO, Vione 24-9H, Bailey, SWSW 9-145-93; npd;
• 41215, conf/drl, MRO, Torgus 21-16H, Lake Ilo, SWSW 9-145-93; npd;
• 41214, conf/loc, MRO, Laurie 34-8, Bailey, SWSW 9-145-93; npd;

• 41135, conf/drl, MRO, Shepard 24-32H, Bailey, lot 2 section 5-145-93; npd;

• 41130, conf/drl, MRO, Halcrow 14-9H, Bailey, SWSW 9-145-93, npd;

• 40782, conf/drl, MRO, Orval 44-23H, Bailey, NENW 26-146-93, npd;
• 40781, conf/drl, MRO, Crooks 44-23H, Bailey, NENW 26-146-93, npd;

• 40779, conf/drl, MRO, McMillan 14-23H, Bailey, NENW 26-146-93, npd;

• 40774, conf/drl, MRO, Vettleson 11-26H, Bailey, NENW 26-146-93, npd;

• 40751, conf/drl, MRO, Hafner 34-23H, Bailey, NENW 26-146-93, npd;
• 40750, conf/drl, MRO, McAdoo 34-23H, Bailey, NENW 26-146-93, npd;
  
• 40749, conf/drl, MRO, Rosenkranz 24-23H, Bailey, NENW 26-146-93, npd;
  
• 40748, conf/drl, MRO, Gross 24-23H, Bailey, NENW 26-146-23H, npd;
  
• 40747, conf/drl, MRO, Sigrid 41-27H, Bailey, NENW 26-146-93, npd;
  
• 40746, conf/drl, MRO, ODonnell 44-22H, Bailey, NENW 26-146-93, npd;
  
• 40745, conf/drl, MRO, Eder 41-26H, Bailey, NENW 26-146-93, npd;
  
• 40744, conf/drl, MRO, Rappley 31-26H, Bailey, NENW 26-146-93, npd;
  
• 40743, conf/drl, MRO, Jens 21-26H, Bailey, NENW 26-146-93, npd;

• 40708, conf/drl, MRO, Simmons 31-27H, Bailey, SESE 21-146-93, npd;

• 40642, conf/drl, MRO, Thorton 31-26H, Bailey, NENW 26-146-93, npd;

• 40618, conf/drl, MRO, Eubanks 44-11TFH, Bailey, SWSE 11-145-94, npd;
• 40617, conf/drl, MRO, Purrier 44-11H, Bailey, SWSE 11-145-94, npd;
• 40616, conf/drl, MRO, Rocky 44-11TFH, Bailey, SWSE 11-145-94, npd;
• 40615, conf/drl, MRO, Zwenke 34-11H, Bailey, SWSE 11-145-94, npd;
• 40614, conf/drl, MRO, Elliot 34-11TFH, Bailey, SWSE 11-145-94, npd;
• 40613, conf/drl, MRO, Foss 24-11TFH, Bailey, SWSE 11-145-94, npd;
• 40612, conf/drl, MRO, Bett 24-11H, Bailey, SWSE 11-145-94, npd;
• 40611, conf/drl, MRO, Severson 31-14H, Bailey, SWSE 11-145-94, npd;
• 40610, conf/drl, MRO, Sneve 31-14TFH, Bailey, SWSE 11-145-94, npd;
• 40609, conf/drl, MRO, Selmer 21-14H, Bailey, SWSE 11-145-94, npd;

• 40564, conf/drl, MRO, Whitaker 34-11H, Bailey, SWSE 11-145-94, npd;

• 40540, conf/drl, MRO, Rex 11-14H, Bailey, NWNE 15-145-94, npd;
• 40539, conf/drl, MRO, Framstad 41-15TFH, Bailey, NWNE 15-145-94, npd;
• 40536, conf/drl, MRO, Franklin 14-11TFH, Bailey, NWNE 15-145-94, npd;
• 40535, conf/drl, MRO, Prince 14-11H, Bailey, NWNE 15-145-94, npd;
• 40534, drl/drl, MRO, Decorah 44-10TFH, Bailey, NWNE 15-145-94, first 6 days: 14,860 bbls crude oil;

A portion of the Bailey oil field:

Cramer's First Hour -- Part 2 -- November 5, 2024

Locator: 48711CRAMER.

Boeing: this needs to be fact-checked. This was reported by CNBC earlier this morning --

• Boeing's machinists' contract will cost Boeing $1.1 billion over the next four years;
• the machinists' strike was costing Boeing $1 billion / month
• what am I missing?

AI: there are two camps -- 

• one camp: it's all hype
• second camp: it's real.
• I'm in the second camp.
• Palantir is soaring.
• Global Foundries up 11%.

MPC:

Bernie Marcus, wiki. Dies at age 95. 

Bernard Marcus (May 12, 1929 – October 20, 2024) was an American billionaire businessman. He co-founded The Home Depot. He was the company's first CEO and first chairman until retiring in 2002. As of November 2024, Forbes estimated his net worth at US$11 billion.

Bernard (Bernie) Marcus was born to Russian Jewish immigrant parents in Newark, New Jersey.

He was the youngest of four children and grew up in a tenement. He graduated from South Side High School in 1947. Marcus wanted to become a doctor, and was accepted to Harvard Medical School, but could not afford the tuition. He graduated from Rutgers University with a pharmacy degree. He was a member of the Alpha Epsilon Pi fraternity.

Cramer's first hour: a mix of facts, factoids, opinions from various sources -- often not cited -- while listening to Cramer's first hour on CNBC. 

Intel: Cramer changes tune. Says "we" can't ignore Intel. Too big to fail. Reminds us that Intel is looking to monetize it's subsidiary, Altera. Link here. 

**********************************
Disclaimer
Brief Reminder 

• I am inappropriately exuberant about the US economy and the US market.
• I am also inappropriately exuberant about all things Apple. 
• See disclaimer. This is not an investment site. 
• Disclaimer: this is not an investment site. Do not make any investment, financial, job, career, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here. All my posts are done quickly: there will be content and typographical errors. If something appears wrong, it probably is. Feel free to fact check everything.
  
• If anything on any of my posts is important to you, go to the source. If/when I find typographical / content errors, I will correct them. 
• Reminder: I am inappropriately exuberant about the US economy and the US market.
• I am also inappropriately exuberant about all things Apple. 
• And now, Nvidia, also. I am also inappropriately exuberant about all things Nvidia.
• Longer version here.

Cramer's First Hour -- Recession Is Finally Here -- Autos And Freight -- November 5, 2024

Locator: 48710CRAMER.

Cramer's first hour: a mix of facts, factoids, opinions from various sources -- often not cited -- while listening to Cramer's first hour on CNBC.  

Recession: autos and freight. 

Ferraris (RACE) down over 5% today.

ADM: down almost 10% today. Accounting irregularities?

Tyson? "Questionable management down there." -- Cramer, didn't expand.

BRK, link here.

Apple, link to The WSJ: 

COP - MRO, link here: 

And here:

California gasoline, link here:

**********************************
Disclaimer
Brief Reminder 

• I am inappropriately exuberant about the US economy and the US market.
• I am also inappropriately exuberant about all things Apple. 
• See disclaimer. This is not an investment site. 
• Disclaimer: this is not an investment site. Do not make any investment, financial, job, career, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here. All my posts are done quickly: there will be content and typographical errors. If something appears wrong, it probably is. Feel free to fact check everything.
  
• If anything on any of my posts is important to you, go to the source. If/when I find typographical / content errors, I will correct them. 
• Reminder: I am inappropriately exuberant about the US economy and the US market.
• I am also inappropriately exuberant about all things Apple. 
• And now, Nvidia, also. I am also inappropriately exuberant about all things Nvidia.
• Longer version here.

Taco Tuesday -- And For The Archives, Election Day -- November 5, 2024

Locator: 48709B.

Tag: Stellantis $25,000

Boeing: machinists' strike over.

Aramco: spending $130 million per day that it does not have. Javier Blas. 

Tesla: link here.

Stellantis, flashback, July 8, 2024:

Ford, link here:

**************************************
Back to the Bakken

WTI: $71.90.

Wednesday, November 6, 2024: 9 for the month; 69 for the quarter, 583 for the year

• 40310, conf, Hess, EN-Rice A-155-94-0310H-8,

Tuesday, November 5, 2024: 8 for the month; 68 for the quarter, 582 for the year

• 40639, conf, CLR, Vandeberg 6-35H,
• 40309, conf, Hess, EN-Rice A-155-94-0310H-7, 

RBN Energy: PADD 3 exports surge as competition intensifies among major players.  

The Gulf Coast is the engine of U.S. energy markets and its fiercely competitive. Over the past decade, monumental growth of crude oil and NGL production, predominantly from the Permian Basin, has led to a surge in exports, with more than 90% of these liquids departing from marine terminals along the Texas and Louisiana coasts. To facilitate that growth, the region has also experienced a tremendous buildout of gathering systems, pipelines, processing facilities, and especially export docks.

Major Gulf Coast market regions like Corpus Christi, Houston, Beaumont, Lake Charles and Baton Rouge all have unique advantages and disadvantages. And the companies that operate in those regions have strategic motivations for where they would like to see new volumes go. As the Gulf Coast energy sector presses on to a new horizon, competition for market share among major players is intense, impacting producers, midstream operators, downstream consumers and exporters alike. That was the focus of our recent NACON: PADD 3 conference and it’s the subject of today’s RBN blog.