The Market And Energy Page, T+29 -- March 29, 2018

Correction: earlier this week I wrote that we would know on Friday, 10:30 a.m. Central Time whether the market's surge on Monday was a dead cat bounce. The market is closed Friday. We will know today at the close whether Monday was a dead cat bounce:

• if the market closes on a negative note, clearly Monday was a dead cat bounce
• if the market closes less than 150 points up, Monday was likely a dead cat bounce
• if the market closes between 151 points and 250 points up, Monday was NOT likely a dead cat bounce
• if the market closes up more than 251 points today, Monday was clearly not a dead cat bounce [Later, the Dow closed UP 255 points -- which I would argue is a somewhat ambivalent response]

TSLA: On the last trading day of the quarter, and on a day the market is marginally higher, TSLA? Down another 3%; down almost $8. Could drop below $250/share. Did I hear someone say "ouch"? [Later, TSLA closed up over 3%; over $8/share.] [After market close and just ahead of a 3-day weekend Tesla announces a recall of 123,000 Model S cars over faulty steering component: the timing of the announcement is incredibly interesting. This has to leave a lot of TSLA "investors" a bit nervous -- buying TSLA at the close (when shares were moving up) and now not knowing what the recall will mean to TSLA when the market opens again -- a long, long three days from now.]

 The above posted at 7:14 p.m. Central Time, March 29, 2018.

Disclaimer: this is not an investment site. Do not make any investment, financial, job, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or what you think you may have read here. However, having said that, Grapevine, TX, is a nice place to visit this time of the year. Or, actually, any time of the year.

Biggest problem for Tesla: no moat.

• at the high end: Jaguar + Waymo = I-Pace
• at the low end: Hyundai just announced its EV entry 

 Second biggest problem for Tesla: minimal experience with manufacturing automobiles

• Jaguar: long, long history
• Hyundai: long, long history

Best thing going for Tesla: faith.

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Port Of North Dakota

Minot Daily News provides update.

• the railhead / terminal / transloading facility leases land from the city of Minot
• the port has not paid its lease in some time; the port has defaulted on many loans
• the city has taken steps to terminate the lease with the port
• the port has until April 30, 2018, to sort this out
• port leases about 135 acres from the city of Minot
• the city has capitalized about $1 million in rail and other infrastructure at the port 

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Frack Sand

Look at that amount of sand Enerplus used on this frack, reported today, almost 20 million lbs:

• 33486, 1,667, Enerplus, Crane 150-94-33C-28H, Spotted Horn, 40 stages; 19.3 million lbs, mesh; t10/17; cum 184K 1/18; 

See results of other wells that came off confidential list this week at this post.

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Bakken Economy

Update On "Port Of North Dakota" -- December 12, 2017

The last time I blogged about ND Port Services it was about the port being in default in lease payments. A short update from The Minot Daily News in this story:

• the city has been seeking lease payments from NDPS that it states are overdue. In court documents, NDPS alleges the city breached the lease by failing to maintain the property. First Western Bank filed foreclosure against NDPS in May for delinquent loan payments. That legal debate continues in North Central District Court. 

Bur now there appears to be new interest in the port:

• NDPS currently operates with three tracks of about 4,500 feet. Limitations with those tracks preclude handling more than a few cars at a time. NDPS would like to construct four rails of 9,500 feet to enable the port to serve more cars and create a more viable operation.

Because of the way the story is written, it's a bit hard to follow but this is what it sounds like to me:

• the Port had a projected $130 million investment fall through in 2013; focused on Bakken energy; investor got "cold feet" -- worried how long the boom would last
• the Port was unable to maintain lease payments to the city of Minot
• the Port now has an investor group interested in investing $80 million the project
• but to do that, the Port needs to add rail on land that the city of Minot owns
• the Port focused on Bakken oil back in 2013; now it pivots to agriculture, wants to become a distribution and logistics center for a core hub between Chicago and Seattle

Background:

• development of the Port began in 2005
• NDPS was established in 2007 (still commonly called the Port of North Dakota)
• transloading activity began in 2010

To put this in perspective, compare with Red River Oilfield Service, on the east side of Williston, ND -- built privately by a single individual. When I was last there, the rail yard had around eleven rail spurs; I don't know the exact length of each spur, but at least one had been completed as part of the "Unit Train Project" -- unit trains are colloquially said to be a "mile long."

Comments: this is incredibly good news for the Port, the city of Minot, and, the entire region. It certainly suggests the "Bakken economy" continues to hum along.

Port Of North Dakota -- In Default -- Minot Daily News -- May 24, 2017

Link here.

Minot’s intermodal facility is in default, and its lender is asking the court in a foreclosure proceeding for the right to sell property to collect on its debt.

The city owns the property, which is leased to North Dakota Port Services.

The mortgage, held by First Western Bank, was created in March 2013 to secure $10 million in loans.

Although it was much more than this, DAPL certainly comes to mind.

This was posted back in 2012.

See first comment:

North Dakota Recognized For Permanent Economic Growth: The Silver Shovel Award

Updates

January 10, 2015: North Dakota did not make the cut for the Silver Shovel Award in 2014.

June 11, 2013: the same story, but at MSN Money.

June 7, 2013: North Dakota GDP growth tops in US; exceeds GDP growth of China.

June 6, 2013: North Dakota's economy -- #1 in US -- third consecutive year

Original Post

I posted this link/story earlier today, but for reasons that will become obvious later, I am posting it again, and expanding upon it.

First, the link/story in The Dickinson Press:

For the first time ever, North Dakota is being recognized by Area Development Magazine for its permanent economic growth.

Released Wednesday, North Dakota was one of 15 states to be honored with the Silver Shovel Award given by the site selection and facility planning quarterly. Four other states — Texas, Georgia, Alabama and Kansas — received Golden Shovel awards for being the top in their population category.

Each state had to pick 10 projects that represented permanent economic growth for the state, Editor Geraldine Gambale said from her Long Island, N.Y., office.

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I wasn't able to find the list of ten projects that North Dakota submitted, but here is my list, hoping that readers will let me know of major projects I missed. I'm not sure how to manage the oil-related projects; I will sort that out as we go along.

ONEOK: Bakken Natural Gas Liquids Pipeline and Stateline I and II and Garden Creek I, II and III natural gas processing plants

The Minn-Dak beet processing plant in Wahpeton

The Ultra Green Packaging factory in Devils Lake

Expansion of BNSF facilities in Minot; marketing headquarters in Bismarck

North Dakota State Bank: unique in the US

Port of North Dakota

#1 producer of several agricultural products; among top 5 for several other products

United Pulse Trading expansion in Minot

WAWS bringing potable water to numerous western communities

Proposed fertilizer plants in Jamestown ($1.2 billion); Grand Forks ($1.5 billion)

Two dozen crude-by-rail terminals established in less than five years

Numerous major pipeline projects: oil and natural gas

Bobcat expansion/re-emergence in Bismarck

North Dakota ranks third in percent of electricity production from wind energy (Iowa #1, South Dakota #2)

North Dakota ranks #1 in barley production, key to beer production (this alone should qualify us for the Golden Shovel award next year)

UND's Department of Aviation: largest collegiate training fleet

Great Plains Synfuels Plant uses thirteen percent of North Dakota’s yearly coal production to produce synthetic natural gas. This is the only commercial-scale coal gasification plant in the U.S., producing 54 billion cubic feet per year, most of which is piped to eastern states

Construction has begun on first new refinery in the United States since 1976 in the Dickinson area; two more planned

Port of North Dakota -- Looking For An Update

Updates

August 4, 2014: is reporting a Q&A from HeggBakken Report, April 28, 2014:

Hegg Bakken Report: Tell us about the port of North Dakota. Why is that important to Minot?
Curt Zimbelman, Minot Mayor: Well, the port of North Dakota is, it could be, and will be, someday, one of the finest things that Minot can bring to the table. Minot, as you know, may or may not know, Minot is a main stop between Chicago, and the west coast for the BNSF, and we have two different rails that cross right in the, two class-one rails actually that, railways that cross right in downtown Minot, and that’s the CP, and the BNSF, so we’re at the perfect location for a huge regional transportation hub, and that’s really getting off the ground now, and especially for intermodal that we don’t really have around this area to move containers, also egg products (sic) that can be moved in containers. It’ll be a great oil hub. So we’ve got about three thousand of available acres out there to run rail in. So it’ll really put us on the map as far as regional transportation hub, I think.

Original Post

I haven't found a news story on the web to confirm it, but two folks have written to tell me that "the railroad in Minot" is hiring a fair number of new employees, probably related to the Port of North Dakota. Perhaps one of the regional newspapers will provide an update sometime.

A story posted back in August/September suggested that several hundred employees might be hired, but that number could grow significantly in size.

The Port of North Dakota is the large grey area northeast of Minot, about six square miles in size.

Port of North Dakota

Updates

May 24, 2017: in default. 

Original Post

 

[Note: this was originally posted some time ago; when I added an update, somehow it got re-posted as a completely new post for this date; that has not happened to me before; not sure how it happened this time. Regardless: the post is an old post, but the flyer noted in the first paragraph below is new.]

For those of you who a) have nothing else to do; and, b) love to explore Google maps, here's a suggestion: look for the satellite view of the Port of North Dakota. [On September 11, Kent sent a link to a promotional flyer which shows how Port of North Dakota will be laid out.]

Hint: google map "55 Street East, Minot, North Dakota," and then move cursor to area west of 55 Street East, and just south of County Road 12. Then zoom in with satellite view to see the Burlington Northern yard to the east and the Port of North Dakota to the west.

Then, go to these two linked articles:

The Port of North Dakota became operational in 2008, shipping its first containers in 2010.

Also two years ago, North Dakota Port Services moved into a new building at the site, which company owner Greg Johnson said the port already has outgrown. Future development plans for the port include a new, larger headquarters building on property north of the existing site.

And, 

The port's 72 employees are far more than the 40 employees that officials figured the port would have four years into its operation. A year from now, Johnson estimated, the port could have in the neighborhood of 200 to 250 employees. As the proposed expansion gets built out, that number will grow. Future employment is unknown but could be as high as 2,000 workers.

Plans call for increasing the port's capacity to handle more business and larger trains. The port would add about 3,000 acres to the north of its existing, 139-acre site on Minot's east side, extending as far north as 46th Avenue Northeast. The existing site is south of Ward County Road 12 and west of Burlington Northern Santa Fe's Gavin Yard and 55th Street East.

From forty employees projected to more than 2,000. And regardless of what POTUS thinks about this, I think it's pretty spectacular.